Results for “demand modelling” — Page 19

DOE OSTI2020

Simulating dispatchable grid services provided by flexible building loads: State of the art and needed building energy modeling improvements

End-use electrical loads in residential and commercial buildings are evolving into flexible and cost-effective resources to improve electric grid reliability, reduce costs, and support increased hosting of distributed renewable generation. This article reviews the simulation of utility services delivered by buildings for the purpose of electric grid operational modeling. We consider services delivered to (1) the high-voltage bulk power system through the coordinated action of many, distributed building loads working together, and (2) targeted support provided to the operation of low-voltage electric distribution grids. Although an exhaustive exploration is not possible, we emphasize the ancillary services and voltage management buildings can provide and summarize the gaps in our ability to simulate them with traditional building energy modeling (BEM) tools, suggesting pathways for future research and development.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Speeding up and reducing memory usage for scientific machine learning via mixed precision

Scientific machine learning (SciML) has emerged as a versatile approach to address complex computational science and engineering problems. Within this field, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) stand out as the leading techniques for solving partial differential equations by incorporating both physical equations and experimental data. However, training PINNs and DeepONets require significant computational resources, including long computational times and large amounts of memory. In search of computational efficiency, training neural networks using half precision (float16) rather than the conventional single (float32) or double (float64) precision has gained substantial interest, given the inherent benefits of reduced computational time and memory consumed. However, we find that float16 cannot be applied to SciML methods, because of gradient divergence at the start of training, weight updates going to zero, and the inability to converge to a local minima. To overcome these limitations, we explore mixed precision, which is an approach that combines the float16 and float32 numerical formats to reduce memory usage and increase computational speed. Our experiments showcase that mixed precision training not only substantially decreases training times and memory demands but also maintains model accuracy. Here, we also reinforce our empirical observations with a theoretical analysis. The research has broad implications for SciML in various computational applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

China's plug-in hybrid electric vehicle transition: An operational carbon perspective

Assessing the emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) operations is crucial for accelerating the carbon–neutral transition in the passenger car sector. This study is the first to adopt a bottom-up model to measure the real-world energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of China’s top twenty selling PHEV models across different regions from 2020 to 2022. The results indicate that (1) the actual electricity intensity of the best-selling PHEV models (20.2–38.2 kWh/100 km) was 30–40 % higher than the New European Driving Cycle values, and the actual gasoline intensity (4.7–23.5 L/100 km) was 3–6 times greater than the New European Driving Cycle values. (2) The overall energy use of the best-selling models varied among different regions, and the energy use from 2020 to 2022 in Southern China was double that Northern China and the Yangtze River Middle Reach. (3) The top-selling models emitted 4.7 megatons of carbon dioxide nationwide from 2020 to 2022, with 1.9 megatons released by electricity consumption and 2.8 megatons released by gasoline combustion. Furthermore, targeted policy implications for expediting the carbon–neutral transition within the passenger car sector are proposed. In essence, this study explores and compares benchmark data at both the national and regional levels, along with performance metrics associated with PHEV operations. The main objective is to aid nationwide decarbonization efforts, focusing on carbon reduction and promoting the rapid transition of road transportation toward a net-zero carbon future.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

USEEIO v2.0, The US Environmentally-Extended Input-Output Model v2.0

USEEIO v2.0 is an environmental-economic model of US goods and services that can be used for life cycle assessment, footprinting, national prioritization, and related applications. This paper describes the development of the model and accompanies the release of a full model dataset as well as various supporting datasets of national environmental totals by US industry. Novel methodological elements since USEEIO v1 models include waste sector disaggregation, final demand vectors for US consumption and production, a domestic form of the model that can be used to separate domestic and foreign impacts, and price adjustment matrices for converting outputs to purchaser price and in various US dollar years. Improvements in modeling national totals of industry and environmental flows are described. The model is validated through reproduction of national totals from input data sources and through analysis of changes from the most recent complete USEEIO model that can be explained based on data updates or method changes. The model datasets can all be reproduced with open source software packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Structural trends in atomic nuclei from laser spectroscopy of tin

Tin is the chemical element with the largest number of stable isotopes. Its complete proton shell, comparable with the closed electron shells in the chemically inert noble gases, is not a mere precursor to extended stability; since the protons carry the nuclear charge, their spatial arrangement also drives the nuclear electromagnetism. We report high-precision measurements of the electromagnetic moments and isomeric differences in charge radii between the lowest 1/2 + , 3/2 + , and 11/2 - states in 117–131 Sn, obtained by collinear laser spectroscopy. Supported by state-of-the-art atomic-structure calculations, the data accurately show a considerable attenuation of the quadrupole moments in the closed-shell tin isotopes relative to those of cadmium, with two protons less. Linear and quadratic mass-dependent trends are observed. While microscopic density functional theory explains the global behaviour of the measured quantities, interpretation of the local patterns demands higher-fidelity modelling.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anomalous phase separation in a correlated electron system: Machine-learning–enabled large-scale kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

Significance Phase separation is crucial to the functionalities of many correlated electron materials with notable examples including colossal magnetoresistance in manganites and high- T c superconductivity in cuprates. However, the nonequilibrium phase-separation dynamics in such systems are poorly understood theoretically, partly because the required multiscale modeling is computationally very demanding. With the aid of machine-learning methods, we have achieved large-scale dynamical simulations in a representative correlated electron system. We observe an unusual relaxation process that is beyond the framework of classical phase-ordering theories. We also uncover a correlation-induced freezing behavior, which could be a generic feature of phase separation in correlated electron systems.

Zhang, Sheng↗

DOE OSTI2026

Federated learning for 2D synchrotron x-ray diffractometry: a cross-institutional approach for phase quantification of Ti–6Al–4V alloy

High-energy Two dimensional (2D) synchrotron x-ray diffractometry provides important insights into the atomistic structure and phase evolution of materials, yet traditional analysis methods remain complex, knowledge-intensive, and computationally demanding. Deep-learning models offer a powerful alternative for automating their analysis. Institutions that hold these datasets may be unwilling to share their data due to privacy and security policies, as well as the challenges associated with large-scale data transfer. As a result, models trained on local datasets often perform well only on their own data but exhibit bias and poor generalization across different instruments or facilities. To overcome these limitations, we explore federated learning (FL) for 2D synchrotron diffractograms, enabling collaborative model training without exchanging raw data. In this study, 2D synchrotron diffractograms of Ti–6Al–4V alloy collected from two independent facilities are used to train convolutional neural networks for predicting the β-phase volume fraction. Experimental results show that federated global models significantly outperform locally trained models in terms of generalization and achieve accuracy comparable to centralized trained models. These findings demonstrate the potential of FL to enable secure, cross-institutional collaboration and enhance the scalability of deep-learning-based materials characterization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mixture-of-Experts for Multi-Domain Defect Identification in Non-Destructive Inspection

Composite materials are widely used in aircraft structures because of their superior mechanical properties. However, their complex failure modes require sophisticated inspection methods to ensure structural integrity. Ultrasonic testing (UT) is a common non-destructive inspection (NDI) technique for aircraft composites that can detect internal and external defects with high resolution and accuracy. Despite their effectiveness, traditional UT methods rely on the manual interpretation of ultrasonic signals, which is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and subjective. Furthermore, processing such large-scale data, particularly across materials of varying thicknesses, significantly increases the computational demands of deep learning model optimization. To overcome these challenges, we propose an efficient sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) model with a multi-level loss function and introduce four novel training objectives to improve computational efficiency and accuracy in identifying surface defects in composite aircraft materials. Here, we evaluated our approach on material with multiple thicknesses or domains comprising various defects. Our experimental results demonstrate higher accuracy and F1-Score, with only 10% training epochs compared to baseline MoE.

composite materials↗

DOE OSTI2021

EFFORT (EFFectiveness Of Rate sTructure for enabling demand response)

This tool helps utilities evaluate potential time of use price-plans and find effective hours for price plan on peak periods and the potential price-elastic demand response. An optimization model can be used to find tiered prices for the time of use tariffs and analyze the impact on load profiles, energy consumption, utility, and customer savings. The tool is equipped with an optimization model to determine the energy consumption of electric appliances that can leverage survey data containing information on the number of appliances owned by customers. Lastly, a statistical model can be used to predict system-level load based on exogenous parameters such as weather, time of day, month, type of day, and year. The tool is scripted in Python and uses the Pyomo python optimization language.

Duwadi, Kapil↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geothermal Deep Direct Use for Turbine Inlet Cooling in East Texas

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory (SMU), Eastman Chemical (Longview, TX), and TAS (Houston, TX) evaluated the feasibility of using geothermal heat to improve the performance of a natural-gas power plant in East Texas. The area of interest is the Eastman Chemical plant in Longview, Texas, which is on the northwestern margin of a geologic region known as the Sabine Uplift. The feasibility study focused on determining the potential for accessing a subsurface hot-water geothermal resource within a 10-km radius of the site to provide thermal energy for absorption chillers. Wells within a 20-km radius are included for broader geological comparison to determine the heat flow, temperature-at-depth, field porosity and permeability. The lithologies of most interest are the Lower Cretaceous Trinity Group and Upper Jurassic Cotton Valley Group. The deeper Cotton Valley formations are hotter (averaging 117 to 130°C), yet permeability and porosity are low. The shallower Trinity Group contains more variability in permeability and porosity and lower temperatures averaging about 98 to 117°C. The shallower formations are considered despite the lower temperature because of increased ability to produce larger volumes of water and extract enough heat before reinjection. The complete SMU analysis is available in the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS). Tapping such deep geothermal sources for direct heating (as opposed to power generation) is known as geothermal deep direct use (DDU). Geothermal DDU has potential across a wide swath of the United States but is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for what are typically small-scale, variable-demand projects. This project examines the feasibility of geothermal energy integration in a natural-gas combined cycle power station in East Texas. The DDU resource is tapped to drive absorption chillers (24/7) for production of chilled water at 5-10°C (41-50°F). This chilled water is stored until needed, which allows for continuous operation with a relatively small-capacity geothermal/absorption chiller system. When conditions are favorable, the chilled water is dispatched to cool the air entering the compressor stage of a gas combustion turbine. This process, known as turbine inlet cooling (TIC), boosts power production during periods of high temperature and high-power demand. Such systems can enhance grid reliability and reduce the cost for peak-demand power. A simulation model of the power plant was developed in IPSEpro software and validated against operational data from the plant. This model allowed the team to estimate the additional power that could be produced by applying TIC under different operating and ambient conditions. Absorption chiller performance was estimated from vendor sources to determine the production rate of chilled water from the geothermal resource. Geothermal drilling and development costs were estimated using NREL's GEOPHIRES 2.0. The expected lower drilling costs in this region led to an estimated cost of geothermal heat of about $4/MMBtu (1.4 cents/kWh t ). The estimated cost for the absorption chillers and TIC hardware were obtained from literature sources and project partners. Hourly data were obtained for weather, natural gas and electricity prices, and plant operating state for 2017, which served as a representative year. NREL estimated the capital cost, operating cost, and additional electricity production and revenue for different combinations of geothermal capacity, chiller capacity, and water storage-tank size. The analysis drove toward smaller geothermal and chiller systems to reduce equipment cost. A relatively low-cost water storage tank accumulated the near-continuous chilled water output for later use when TIC was most valued.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Unified Memory: GPGPU-Sim/UVM Smart Integration

CPU/GPU heterogeneous compute platforms are an ubiquitous element in computing and a programming model specified for this heterogeneous computing model is important for both performance and programmability. A programming model that exposes the shared, unified, address space between the heterogeneous units is a necessary step in this direction as it removes the burden of explicit data movement from the programmer while maintaining performance. GPU vendors, such as AMD and NVIDIA, have released software-managed runtimes that can provide programmers the illusion of unified CPU and GPU memory by automatically migrating data in and out of the GPU memory. However, this runtime support is not included in GPGPU-Sim, a commonly used framework that models the features of a modern graphics processor that are relevant to non-graphics applications. UVM Smart was developed, which extended GPGPU-Sim 3.x to in- corporate the modeling of on-demand pageing and data migration through the runtime. This report discusses the integration of UVM Smart and GPGPU-Sim 4.0 and the modifications to improve simulation performance and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Position Papers for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty Workshop

The ability to solve inverse problems – inferring unknown parameters, structures, or states of a system from observed data – is essential for advancing scientific discovery and innovation capabilities for the DOE mission. Basic research needs and challenges are particularly acute in emerging areas such as the interactive, data-driven, modeling and simulation of digital twins; decision support for experiments at DOE scientific user facilities; and for other complex systems and workflows. Inverse problems are at the heart of understanding and controlling complex systems due to factors such as observational data with varying modalities and fidelities, inherent uncertainties in physical measurements and numerical models, and the computational demands of rapid and high-fidelity simulations. The convergence of recent scientific computing trends – scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing – is creating unprecedented opportunities. These advancements offer the potential to revolutionize how we approach inverse problems to extract actionable insights with the required level of accuracy and computational efficiency. This workshop and the Call for Position Papers are vital steps in bringing together experts to collectively explore and identify the new computational and mathematical directions needed in inverse methods for complex systems under uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Updating the BNB Flux Prediction at SBND

Precise, accurate neutrino flux predictions for neutrino beam experiments are crucial for physics results. Flux uncertainties contribute significantly to the total systematic uncertainties seen in modern accelerator neutrino measurements such as cross sections, oscillations, and BSM studies.. For over a decade, experiments utilizing Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) have relied on the 2009 MiniBooNE flux prediction. However, the high-statistics era of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program, with both SBND and ICARUS now operating, demands a modernized flux model and framework. While SBND is using the MiniBooNE flux model for its Generation 1 analyses, including many upcoming cross section measurements, future work will be based on a new flux model. In this talk, the ongoing work towards this new model will be outlined, including a new simulation framework (G4BNB), a new evaluation of model parameters from hadron scattering data, and a new framework for evaluating systematic uncertainties (BNBFP). Additionally, expansions to the flux model to include BSM contributions from neutral mesons will be discussed, as well as the PRISM capabilities of SBND to observe a wide range of off axis angles of the neutrino beam.

Paton, Josephine [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Updating the BNB Flux Prediction at SBND

Precise, accurate neutrino flux predictions for neutrino beam experiments are crucial for physics results. Flux uncertainties contribute significantly to the total systematic uncertainties seen in modern accelerator neutrino measurements such as cross sections, oscillations, and BSM studies.. For over a decade, experiments utilizing Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) have relied on the 2009 MiniBooNE flux prediction. However, the high-statistics era of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program, with both SBND and ICARUS now operating, demands a modernized flux model and framework. While SBND is using the MiniBooNE flux model for its Generation 1 analyses, including many upcoming cross section measurements, future work will be based on a new flux model. In this talk, the ongoing work towards this new model will be outlined, including a new simulation framework (G4BNB), a new evaluation of model parameters from hadron scattering data, and a new framework for evaluating systematic uncertainties (BNBFP). Additionally, expansions to the flux model to include BSM contributions from neutral mesons will be discussed, as well as the PRISM capabilities of SBND to observe a wide range of off axis angles of the neutrino beam.

Paton, Josephine [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Minimization of the Power Generation Cost in Prosumer-Based Distribution Networks: Preprint

Traditionally, electrical power was generated in big power plants. The cost of producing energy was related to the cost of fuel, e.g., carbon or gas, and by the cost of maintaining the power plants. With the advent of distributed energy resources, power can be produced directly at the edge of the electrical network by a new type of agents: the prosumers. Prosumers are entities that both consume and generate power, e.g., by means of photovoltaic panels. The cost of the power produced by prosumers is no longer related to fuel consumption since energy coming from distributed generators is essentially free. Rather, the cost is related to the remuneration that is due to the prosumers for the services they provide. The proposed control strategy minimizes the active power generation cost in the aforementioned scenario. The control scheme requires that the prosumers measure their voltage and then adjust the amount of injected power, according to a continuous time feedback control law that is indeed a projected gradient descent strategy. Simulations are provided in order to illustrate the algorithm behavior.

distributed control↗

DOE OSTI2023

mosartwmpy sample input data; 1980 - 1985

Sample input data spanning the years 1980-1985 for running the `mosartwmpy` water routing and management model: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/mosartwmpy. More information is available in the README.md. Changelog: v0.0.6: updates reservoir parameters to indicate which reservoirs should follow generic operating rules and which should follow ISTARF data-driven operating rules. v0.0.5: adds supporting files for running the Farmer Agent Based Model of adaptive water demand.

Rexer, Emily↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis for a Potential Geothermal District Heating System in Tuttle, Oklahoma: Preprint

Geothermal deep direct use (DDU) has potential across a wide swath of the United States but is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for a large-scale and variable heat demand. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and University of Oklahoma evaluated the feasibility of a geothermal district heating (GDH) and cooling system in two schools and 250 houses by utilizing existing oil and gas (O&G) wells in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Heating and cooling demand in the two schools and a typical single-family house were modeled using EnergyPlus building energy simulation software. The modeling results indicated that annual heating demand in two schools and 250 houses is approximately 2.61 GWhth, and cooling demand in the two schools is approximately 2.65 GWhth. In this scope, the techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted using the GEOPHIRES tool combined with the TOUGH2 reservoir simulator. The reservoir performance, including geothermal heat production capacity, was modeled by the reservoir simulator TOUGH2. Then, levelized cost of heat (LCOH) was calculated using GEOPHIRES version 3.0, which includes new features such as hourly heat load optimization and peak performance evaluation. Geothermal reservoir temperature was estimated as 90.5 degrees C at a total depth of 3.3 km by the regional average temperature gradient of 22.8 degrees C/km and validated by cation geothermometer calculations. Four production scenarios with two different well configurations and two different heat load profiles have been developed for well flow rates ranging between 3.1 kg/s and 9.3 kg/s. The LCOH of the district heating and cooling system was calculated between $95 and $210/MWh ($28/MMBtu to $62/MMBtu) for four different production scenarios. Typical natural gas prices for residential customers in Oklahoma have ranged from 9 to 19 $/MMBtu over the past decade, which indicates a challenge for deployment of such a GDH system.

deep direct-use↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis for a Potential Geothermal District Heating System in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Geothermal deep direct use (DDU) has potential across a wide swath of the United States but is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for a large-scale and variable heat demand. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and University of Oklahoma evaluated the feasibility of a geothermal district heating (GDH) and cooling system in two schools and 250 houses by utilizing existing oil and gas (O&G) wells in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Heating and cooling demand in the two schools and a typical single-family house were modeled using EnergyPlus building energy simulation software. The modeling results indicated that annual heating demand in two schools and 250 houses is approximately 2.61 GWhth, and cooling demand in the two schools is approximately 2.65 GWhth. In this scope, the techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted using the GEOPHIRES tool combined with the TOUGH2 reservoir simulator. The reservoir performance, including geothermal heat production capacity, was modeled by the reservoir simulator TOUGH2. Then, levelized cost of heat (LCOH) was calculated using GEOPHIRES version 3.0, which includes new features such as hourly heat load optimization and peak performance evaluation. Geothermal reservoir temperature was estimated as 90.5 degrees C at a total depth of 3.3 km by the regional average temperature gradient of 22.8 degrees C/km and validated by cation geothermometer calculations. Four production scenarios with two different well configurations and two different heat load profiles have been developed for well flow rates ranging between 3.1 kg/s and 9.3 kg/s. The LCOH of the district heating and cooling system was calculated between $95 and $210/MWh ($28/MMBtu to $62/MMBtu) for four different production scenarios. Typical natural gas prices for residential customers in Oklahoma have ranged from 9 to 19 $/MMBtu over the past decade, which indicates a challenge for deployment of such a GDH system.

deep direct-use↗