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At least 343 records · Page 19

Development of a Kalman filter estimator for simulation and control of particulate matter distribution of a diesel catalyzed particulate filter

The knowledge of the temperature and particulate matter mass distribution is essential for monitoring the performance and durability of a catalyzed particulate filter. A catalyzed particulate filter model was developed, and it showed capability to accurately predict temperature and particulate matter mass distribution and pressure drop across the catalyzed particulate filter. However, the high-fidelity model is computationally demanding. Therefore, a reduced order multi-zone particulate filter model was developed to reduce computational complexity with an acceptable level of accuracy. In order to develop a reduced order model, a parametric study was carried out to determine the number of zones necessary for aftertreatment control applications. The catalyzed particulate filter model was further reduced by carrying out a sensitivity study of the selected model assumptions. The reduced order multi-zone particulate filter model with 5 × 5 zones was selected to develop a catalyzed particulate filter state estimator considering its computational time and accuracy. Next, a Kalman filter–based catalyzed particulate filter estimator was developed to estimate unknown states of the catalyzed particulate filter such as temperature and particulate matter mass distribution and pressure drop (Δ P) using the sensor inputs to the engine electronic control unit and the reduced order multi-zone particulate filter model. A diesel oxidation catalyst estimator was also integrated with the catalyzed particulate filter estimator in order to provide estimates of diesel oxidation catalyst outlet concentrations of NO 2 and hydrocarbons and inlet temperature for the catalyzed particulate filter estimator. The combined diesel oxidation catalyst–catalyzed particulate filter estimator was validated for an active regeneration experiment. The validation results for catalyzed particulate filter temperature distribution showed that the root mean square temperature error by using the diesel oxidation catalyst–catalyzed particulate filter estimator is within 3.2 °C compared to the experimental data. Similarly, the Δ P estimator closely simulated the measured total Δ P and the estimated cake pressure drop error is within 0.2 kPa compared to the high-fidelity catalyzed particulate filter model.

Engineering↗

Understanding the Effect of Baseline Modeling Implementation Choices on Analysis of Demand Response Performance

Accurate evaluation of the performance of buildings participating in Demand Response (DR) programs is critical to the adoption and improvement of these programs. Typically, we calculate load sheds during DR events by comparing observed electric demand against counterfactual predictions made using statistical baseline models. Many baseline models exist and these models can produce different shed calculations. Moreover, modelers implementing the same baseline model can make different modeling implementation choices, which may affect shed estimates. In this work, using real data, we analyze the effect of different modeling implementation choices on shed predictions. We focused on five issues: weather data source, resolution of data, methods for determining when buildings are occupied, methods for aligning building data with temperature data, and methods for power outage filtering. Results indicate sensitivity to the weather data source and data filtration methods as well as an immediate potential for automation of methods to choose building occupied modes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling Lithium Diffusion in Battery Cathodes Considering Chemo-Mechanically Induced Damage

This talk will present a 3D, continuum-level damage model for simulating Lithium diffusion within generated Li_{x}Ni_{0.5}Mn_{0.3}Co_{0.2} (NMC 532) secondary cathode particles. The primary motivation of the particle-level model is to inform cathode-particle design and determine charging profiles that reduce cathode fracture. The model considers NMC 532 secondary particles containing an agglomeration of anisotropic, randomly oriented grains. The model predicts that secondary-particle fracture is primarily due to non-ideal grain interactions with slight dependence on high-rate charge demands. The model predicts that small secondary-particles with large grains develop significantly less damage than larger secondary particles with small grains. Finally, the model predicts most of the chemo-mechanical damage accumulates in the first high-rate cycles. This chemo-mechanical “damage saturation” effect indicates that initial secondary-particle fracture occurs within the first few cycles, while long-term cathode degradation is not solely chemo-mechanically induced.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Models and Strategies for Optimal Demand Side Management in the Chemical Industries

Deregulation and the increase of renewable electricity generation from wind and solar photovoltaics have transformed the U.S. electricity market. Economic and environmental benefits notwithstanding, the presence of renewables has increased variability and uncertainty on the supply side of the grid. Managing demand, rather than generation – a strategy referred to as “demand response (DR)” – is an attractive approach for mitigating this imbalance. DR efforts aim to reduce electricity usage during peak demand times, lessening stress on the grid. Industrial users are particularly attractive entities for DR participation since they present large, localized loads that can provide significant relief on grid demand and –unlike other large loads, such as buildings – are minimally dependent on human needs and preferences. In this project, we accomplished three main objectives. (1) We developed data-driven low-order DR scheduling-relevant dynamic models of chemical processes. Concurrently, we studied the formulation and solution of the associated optimal DR production scheduling problems. (a) A prototype air separation unit (ASU) model was used to generate simulated operating data for initial modeling efforts, which enabled the later use of industrial data for data-driven modeling. (b) We utilized Hammerstein-Wiener (HW) and Finite Step Response (FSR) models to represent nonlinear plant dynamics. (c) The HW models were linearized using exact linearization so they could potentially be embedded in power system models, which are formulated as mixed integer linear programs (MILPs). (d) We solved DR optimization problems under uncertainty and found that even naïve predictions of electricity price and product demand led to significant cost savings benefits. (2) Our DR scheduling optimization problem formulations are amenable to real-time solution. (a) We utilized Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) to efficiently solve the optimization problem by decoupling subproblems linked by complicating constraints. (b) We have achieved computation times for the 3-day DR scheduling problem of an ASU as low as 1.88 minutes. (3) Our representations of the DR behavior of chemical process as grid-level batteries were embedded in power system models. (a) For a small-scale grid, we found that incorporating the dynamics of the chemical plant in the optimal power flow calculations resulted in better resource management leading to up to 15% and 46% cost reduction for the grid and chemical plant operations, respectively, during periods of power line congestion. We have published several works dedicated to modeling and solving DR optimization problems from the user side. These were published in top peer-reviewed journals and are summarized in this report. The most recent work (and papers in preparation) considers DR scheduling from the grid side. Future efforts will consider networked plants (e.g., air separation units operating on a common pipeline) for DR participation, which is expected to amplify the capabilities of industrial DR participants to perform load-shifting. Our consideration of uncertainty in DR has inspired future directions in this area as well: we plan to develop multistage methods to fully account for the effects of uncertainty in DR scheduling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evidence of Long Range Dependence and Self-similarity in Urban Traffic Systems

Transportation simulation technologies should accurately model traffic demand, distribution, and assignment parame- ters for urban environment simulation. These three param- eters significantly impact transportation engineering bench- mark process, are also critical in realizing realistic traffic modeling situations. In this paper, we model and charac- terize traffic density distribution of thousands of locations around the world. The traffic densities are generated from millions of images collected over several years and processed using computer vision techniques. The resulting traffic den- sity distribution time series are then analyzed. It is found using the goodness-of-fit test that the traffic density dis- tributions follows heavy-tail models such as Log-gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull in over 90% of analyzed locations. Moreover, a heavy-tail gives rise to long-range dependence and self-similarity, which we studied by estimating the Hurst exponent (H). Our analysis based on seven different Hurst estimators strongly indicate that the traffic distribution pat- terns are stochastically self-similar (0.5 H 1.0). We believe this is an important finding that will influence the design and development of the next generation traffic simu- lation techniques and also aid in accurately modeling traffic engineering of urban systems. In addition, it shall provide a much needed input for the development of smart cities.

long range dependence↗

Editors’ Choice—Perspective—Challenges in Moving to Multiscale Battery Models: Where Electrochemistry Meets and Demands More from Math

There has been significant recent interest in studying multiscale characteristics of current and next-generation batteries, including lithium-metal and lithium-sulfur batteries. Advances in computing power make researchers believe that the detailed multiscale models can be efficiently simulated to arrive at the insights for the degradation and performance loss; however, this is not true and special attention needs to be paid to local singularities, boundary layers, moving boundaries, etc. This article presents 2D examples that illustrate the importance of grid convergence studies, provides well-defined detailed models to test the efficiency of numerical schemes, and discusses the associated simulation challenges.

Shah, Krishna (ORCID:0000000278026361)↗

ON HELIUM MIXING IN QUASI-GLOBAL SIMULATIONS OF THE INTRACLUSTER MEDIUM

The assumption of a spatially uniform helium distribution in the intracluster medium (ICM) can lead to biases in the estimates of key cluster parameters if composition gradients are present. The helium concentration profile in galaxy clusters is unfortunately not directly observable. Current models addressing the putative sedimentation are one-dimensional and parametrize the presence of magnetic fields in a crude way, ignoring the weakly collisional, magnetized nature of the medium. When these effects are considered, a wide variety of instabilities can play an important role in the plasma dynamics. In a series of recent papers, we have developed the local, linear theory of these instabilities and addressed their nonlinear development with a modified version of Athena. Here, we extend our study by developing a quasi-global approach that we use to simulate the mixing of helium as induced by generalizations of the heat-flux-driven buoyancy instability (HBI) and the magnetothermal instability, which feed off thermal and composition gradients. In the inner region of the ICM, mixing can occur over a few gigayears, after which the average magnetic field inclination angle is ∼30°–50°, resulting in an averaged Spitzer parameter higher by about 20% than the value obtained in homogeneous simulations. In the cluster outskirts the instabilities are rather inefficient, due to the shallow gradients. This suggests that composition gradients in cluster cores might be shallower than one-dimensional models predict. More quantitative statements demand more refined models that can incorporate the physics driving the sedimentation process and simultaneously account for the weakly collisional nature of the plasma.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

1995 OMPO Model Development Project

The 1995 Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization (OMPO) Model Development Project for Oahu Island was intended to document how Oahu residents use the streets, highways, and transit services in the region. These data were used to develop the Travel Demand Forecasting Model, which is used to forecast the traffic impacts of various land use changes. The survey collected complete travel information of 4,060 Oahu households for a 24-hour period, including demographic and socioeconomic data.

1Hz data↗

Pressure drop in the SHOOT superfluid helium acquisition system

Central to the upcoming Superfield Helium On-Orbit Transfer (SHOOT) demonstration is the fluid acquisition system. The main component of the system is a rectangular cross-section gallery area with one side fabricated from a fine mesh screen. He II enters through the screen and is delivered to a fountain effect pump. A model is proposed to predict the pressure drop as fluid flows through the screen and an expression is derived for the required gallery arm length as a function of flow rate demand. The model is compared with measurement of pressure drop in a full scale SHOOT gallery arm operated with flow rates of up to 850 cu dm/hr. The tests were conducted in the University of Wisconsin horizontal liquid helium flow facility to minimize gravitational effects.

Nissen, J. A.↗

Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource

Multiple grid integration studies have examined the value of demand response, including from water heaters, to bulk power systems. Common shortcomings of these studies include physically unrealistic assumptions. For example, studies often assume that all electric water heater load can be shed for up to an hour to provide capacity or contingency service, that all electric water heater load is shiftable, and that round-trip efficiencies for shifting service are 100%. Another issue is that simply summing up estimates of individual water heaters' flexibility bounds, an attractive idea for constructing the MW-scale resources necessary for direct inclusion in grid investment and operational models, can result in significant overestimates of actual resource, because, e.g., a water heater with the ability to reduce load may not be able sustain the reduction for as long as the aggregate model suggests is possible. This presentation demonstrates the impact of estimating the flexibility of electric water heaters with physically realistic models suitable for grid service analysis. Electric water heater flexibility representations are constructed based on ResStock simulations of New England. Specifically, we examine contingency resource (related to capacity, shed, and contingency reserve services) and energy shifting resource from electric resistance and heat pump water heaters. Different estimation methods are compared; and the surrogate models' event responses are validated against events directly simulated in EnergyPlus. We also demonstrate the impact of using electric water heaters for contingency reserves and energy shifting in detailed models of possible future ISO New England power systems.

building energy modeling↗

Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems

In regions where natural gas is used for both power generation and heating buildings, extreme cold weather events can place the electrical system under enormous stress and challenge the ability to meet residential heating and electric demands. Residential demand response has long been used in the power sector to curtail summer electric load, but these types of programs in general have not seen adoption in the natural gas sector during winter months. Natural gas demand response (NG-DR) has garnered interest given recent extreme cold weather events in the United States; however, the magnitude of savings and potential impacts—to occupants and energy markets—are not well understood. We present a case-study analysis of the technical potential for residential natural gas demand response in the northeast United States that utilizes diverse whole-building energy simulations and high-performance computing. Our results show that NG-DR applied to residential heating systems during extreme cold-weather conditions could reduce natural gas demand by 1–29% based on conservative and aggressive strategies, respectively. This indicates a potential to improve the resilience of gas and electric systems during stressful events, which we examine by estimating the impact on energy costs and electricity generation from natural gas. We also explore relationships between hourly indoor temperatures, demand response, and building envelope efficiency.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). Here, we also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 10 4 km 2 ) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 ×10 4 km 2 ). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 10 4 km 2 ) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SPECs Early-Stage Decision Model: User Manual

The SPECs Early-Stage Decision (ESD) model is central to the SPECs procurement solutions toolkit. The ESD model is an Excel-based spreadsheet model, which provides information about the economic and strategic value of a proposed battery-storage project or solar-plus-storage (solar-plus) project. The model can be used to explore combinations of storage-related project value streams in order to define a potential project, while educating co-op decision-makers about project benefits and costs. A sensitivity analysis function speeds the development of "what-if" scenarios. A gap analysis function solves for top-priority metrics and supports the inclusion of hard-to-monetize strategic values, such as the value of storage to defer costly system upgrades in light of increasing distributed solar and other distributed energy resources (DERs). Model outputs include the utility data, assumptions, and use-case scenarios that are recommended content for the requests for proposals (RFPs). The model may also provide an initial "sanity check" for RFP responses, supporting further discussions among utility staff, vendors and stakeholders. The ESD is not a "finance-grade" modeling tool, and users are cautioned to be mindful of its limitations, but the model has been reviewed by users, who recommend it as a way to drive faster and better project design and planning, as well as to facilitate better communications with vendors, grid partners, and stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Distribution System State Estimation With High Penetration of Demand Response Enabled Loads

Demand-side operations incentivize utility customers to take part in various grid services. A demand response enabled load (DREL) is a flexible grid asset that schedules electricity consumption in response to a time-of-use (TOU) energy price. Consequently, its energy profile differs from that of a conventional load that is insensitive to price. This difference may cause new challenges for distribution system state estimation (DSSE). It is well known that DSSE often needs to use pseudo-measurements based on historic load profiles to increase system observability. However, historic profiles of conventional loads are not representative of DREL behaviors. Additionally, the inaccuracy impacts DSSE results and other DSSE-dependent operations. In this paper, we propose an online pseudo-measurement generation approach for DSSE with DRELs. We formulate an optimization model to represent DRELs self-adjusting actions. Sampling-based stochastic optimization techniques are proposed to account for uncertainties in DRELs. A set of representative DREL behavior data corresponding to the samples are used to characterize DREL pseudo-measurements. Case studies with modified IEEE 123-bus test system verify the validity of the proposed work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Game-Theoretic Approach for Electricity Pricing Between Distribution System Operator and Load Aggregators

Transactive energy has emerged and gained more and more attention in recent years along with smart grid two-way communication technologies. Electricity pricing strategies play a critical role in influencing and shaping the customers’ energy load profile. In this paper, we investigate the electricity pricing strategy between a distribution system operator (DSO) and load aggregators (LAs) by adopting a bi-level Stackelberg game approach. With the purpose of maximizing its own operating revenue as well as better serving its customers, the upper level DSO will determine the price considering how lower level LAs will respond to it. Peak-to-average ratio of the total demand is modeled as a constraint and peak load is penalized at the upper optimization level. Classical backward induction is used to obtain a Nash equilibrium for the formulated bi-level Stackelberg game. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed game approach in leveraging flexible demand potential to benefit both DSO and LAs.

Chen, Yang↗

An interface-aware sub-scale dynamics multi-material cell model for solids with void closure and opening at all speeds

Here, we present a multi-material cell model (closure model) for demanding arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) simulations of fluids and solids. It is based on the interface-aware sub-scale dynamics (IASSD) approach which utilizes the exact material interface geometry within the computational cell to calculate internal material interactions. Our formulation of the closure model also aims to improve the accuracy in low-speed impact events. Voids are used to represent ambient vacuum and internal free boundaries of the distinct materials. Void regions can close and open at contact surfaces, allowing a transition from contact physics to free motion in vacuum. The coupling of void closure and opening with a new formulation of the IASSD model for solids is tested on several one- and two-dimensional numerical examples, ranging from gas expansion in vacuum to planar and round object impacts at various speeds.

42 ENGINEERING↗