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At least 343 records · Page 19

The probabilistic structure of planetary contamination models

The analytical basis for planetary quarantine standards and procedures is presented. The heirarchy of planetary quarantine decisions is explained and emphasis is placed on the determination of mission specifications to include sterilization. The influence of the Sagan-Coleman probabilistic model of planetary contamination on current standards and procedures is analyzed. A classical problem in probability theory which provides a close conceptual parallel to the type of dependence present in the contamination problem is presented.

Harrison, J. M.↗

Dispositional logic

The applicability of conventional mathematical analysis (based on the combination of two-valued logic and probability theory) to problems in which human judgment, perception, or emotions play significant roles is considered theoretically. It is shown that dispositional logic, a branch of fuzzy logic, has particular relevance to the common-sense reasoning typical of human decision-making. The concepts of dispositionality and usuality are defined analytically, and a dispositional conjunctive rule and dispositional modus ponens are derived.

Le Balleur, J. C.↗

An overview of the neuron ring model

The Neuron Ring model employs an avalanche structure with two important distinctions at the neuron level. Each neuron has two memory latches; one traps maximum neuronal activation during pattern presentation, and the other records the time of latch content change. The latches filter short term memory. In the process, they preserve length 1 snapshots of activation theory history. The model finds utility in pattern classification. Its synaptic weights are first conditioned with sample spectra. The model then receives a test or unknown signal. The objective is to identify the sample closest to the test signal. Class decision follows complete presentation of the test data. The decision maker relies exclusively on the latch contents. Presented here is an overview of the Neuron Ring at the seminar level.

Taber, Rod↗

Online model-based diagnosis to support autonomous operation of an advanced life support system

This article describes methods for online model-based diagnosis of subsystems of the advanced life support system (ALS). The diagnosis methodology is tailored to detect, isolate, and identify faults in components of the system quickly so that fault-adaptive control techniques can be applied to maintain system operation without interruption. We describe the components of our hybrid modeling scheme and the diagnosis methodology, and then demonstrate the effectiveness of this methodology by building a detailed model of the reverse osmosis (RO) system of the water recovery system (WRS) of the ALS. This model is validated with real data collected from an experimental testbed at NASA JSC. A number of diagnosis experiments run on simulated faulty data are presented and the results are discussed.

Non-NASA Center↗

A Behavioral Model of Landscape Change in the Amazon Basin: The Colonist Case

This paper presents the prototype of a predictive model capable of describing both magnitudes of deforestation and its spatial articulation into patterns of forest fragmentation. In a departure from other landscape models, it establishes an explicit behavioral foundation for algorithm development, predicated on notions of the peasant economy and on household production theory. It takes a 'bottom-up' approach, generating the process of land-cover change occurring at lot level together with the geography of a transportation system to describe regional landscape change. In other words, it translates the decentralized decisions of individual households into a collective, spatial impact. In so doing, the model unites the richness of survey research on farm households with the analytical rigor of spatial analysis enabled by geographic information systems (GIs). The paper describes earlier efforts at spatial modeling, provides a critique of the so-called spatially explicit model, and elaborates a behavioral foundation by considering farm practices of colonists in the Amazon basin. It then uses, insight from the behavioral statement to motivate a GIs-based model architecture. The model is implemented for a long-standing colonization frontier in the eastern sector of the basin, along the Trans-Amazon Highway in the State of Para, Brazil. Results are subjected to both sensitivity analysis and error assessment, and suggestions are made about how the model could be improved.

Walker, R. A.↗

Predicting Pilot Behavior in Medium Scale Scenarios Using Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning

Effective automation is critical in achieving the capacity and safety goals of the Next Generation Air Traffic System. Unfortunately creating integration and validation tools for such automation is difficult as the interactions between automation and their human counterparts is complex and unpredictable. This validation becomes even more difficult as we integrate wide-reaching technologies that affect the behavior of different decision makers in the system such as pilots, controllers and airlines. While overt short-term behavior changes can be explicitly modeled with traditional agent modeling systems, subtle behavior changes caused by the integration of new technologies may snowball into larger problems and be very hard to detect. To overcome these obstacles, we show how integration of new technologies can be validated by learning behavior models based on goals. In this framework, human participants are not modeled explicitly. Instead, their goals are modeled and through reinforcement learning their actions are predicted. The main advantage to this approach is that modeling is done within the context of the entire system allowing for accurate modeling of all participants as they interact as a whole. In addition such an approach allows for efficient trade studies and feasibility testing on a wide range of automation scenarios. The goal of this paper is to test that such an approach is feasible. To do this we implement this approach using a simple discrete-state learning system on a scenario where 50 aircraft need to self-navigate using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information. In this scenario, we show how the approach can be used to predict the ability of pilots to adequately balance aircraft separation and fly efficient paths. We present results with several levels of complexity and airspace congestion.

Game Theory↗

Accelerating the development of new solar absorbers by photoemission characterization coupled with density functional theory

Abstract The expectation to progress towards Terawatts production by solar technologies requires continuous development of new materials to improve efficiency and lower the cost of devices beyond what is currently available at industrial level. At the same time, the turnaround time to make the investment worthwhile is progressively shrinking. Whereas traditional absorbers have developed in a timeframe spanning decades, there is an expectation that emerging materials will be converted into industrially relevant reality in a much shorter timeframe. Thus, it becomes necessary to develop new approaches and techniques that could accelerate decision-making steps on whether further research on a material is worth pursuing or not. In this review, we will provide an overview of the photoemission characterization methods and theoretical approaches that have been developed in the past decades to accelerate the transfer of emerging solar absorbers into efficient devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Prediction analysis and management decisions.

Prediction analysis techniques /PAT/ using statistical methods, computers, error analysis, etc, for system weight, performance and other parameter predictions in Apollo program

PROGRAM MANAGEMENT↗

Regression Verification Using Impact Summaries

Regression verification techniques are used to prove equivalence of syntactically similar programs. Checking equivalence of large programs, however, can be computationally expensive. Existing regression verification techniques rely on abstraction and decomposition techniques to reduce the computational effort of checking equivalence of the entire program. These techniques are sound but not complete. In this work, we propose a novel approach to improve scalability of regression verification by classifying the program behaviors generated during symbolic execution as either impacted or unimpacted. Our technique uses a combination of static analysis and symbolic execution to generate summaries of impacted program behaviors. The impact summaries are then checked for equivalence using an o-the-shelf decision procedure. We prove that our approach is both sound and complete for sequential programs, with respect to the depth bound of symbolic execution. Our evaluation on a set of sequential C artifacts shows that reducing the size of the summaries can help reduce the cost of software equivalence checking. Various reduction, abstraction, and compositional techniques have been developed to help scale software verification techniques to industrial-sized systems. Although such techniques have greatly increased the size and complexity of systems that can be checked, analysis of large software systems remains costly. Regression analysis techniques, e.g., regression testing [16], regression model checking [22], and regression verification [19], restrict the scope of the analysis by leveraging the differences between program versions. These techniques are based on the idea that if code is checked early in development, then subsequent versions can be checked against a prior (checked) version, leveraging the results of the previous analysis to reduce analysis cost of the current version. Regression verification addresses the problem of proving equivalence of closely related program versions [19]. These techniques compare two programs with a large degree of syntactic similarity to prove that portions of one program version are equivalent to the other. Regression verification can be used for guaranteeing backward compatibility, and for showing behavioral equivalence in programs with syntactic differences, e.g., when a program is refactored to improve its performance, maintainability, or readability. Existing regression verification techniques leverage similarities between program versions by using abstraction and decomposition techniques to improve scalability of the analysis [10, 12, 19]. The abstractions and decomposition in the these techniques, e.g., summaries of unchanged code [12] or semantically equivalent methods [19], compute an over-approximation of the program behaviors. The equivalence checking results of these techniques are sound but not complete-they may characterize programs as not functionally equivalent when, in fact, they are equivalent. In this work we describe a novel approach that leverages the impact of the differences between two programs for scaling regression verification. We partition program behaviors of each version into (a) behaviors impacted by the changes and (b) behaviors not impacted (unimpacted) by the changes. Only the impacted program behaviors are used during equivalence checking. We then prove that checking equivalence of the impacted program behaviors is equivalent to checking equivalence of all program behaviors for a given depth bound. In this work we use symbolic execution to generate the program behaviors and leverage control- and data-dependence information to facilitate the partitioning of program behaviors. The impacted program behaviors are termed as impact summaries. The dependence analyses that facilitate the generation of the impact summaries, we believe, could be used in conjunction with other abstraction and decomposition based approaches, [10, 12], as a complementary reduction technique. An evaluation of our regression verification technique shows that our approach is capable of leveraging similarities between program versions to reduce the size of the queries and the time required to check for logical equivalence. The main contributions of this work are: - A regression verification technique to generate impact summaries that can be checked for functional equivalence using an off-the-shelf decision procedure. - A proof that our approach is sound and complete with respect to the depth bound of symbolic execution. - An implementation of our technique using the LLVMcompiler infrastructure, the klee Symbolic Virtual Machine [4], and a variety of Satisfiability Modulo Theory (SMT) solvers, e.g., STP [7] and Z3 [6]. - An empirical evaluation on a set of C artifacts which shows that the use of impact summaries can reduce the cost of regression verification.

Backes, John↗

Manual control theory applied to air traffic controller-pilot cooperation

Reduced runway separation standards are among the means which have been proposed for increasing airport capacity. The probability of a blunder will dominate the calculation of safe separation standards. Then the determinant of safe system performance will be the system reaction time comprised of the air traffic controller's detection, decision and communication delays, and the response times of the pilot and aircraft in executing a collision avoidance manuever. Estimates of these times, based on existing data, show that the delays ascribable to the human portions of the man-machine system are comparatively unimportant. New developments in radar, computers, and data links will be required to provide any substantial improvement of the existing system, and the goal of 2500 ft of separation may not be achievable.

Graham, D.↗

Search for charged-lepton flavor violation in the production and decay of top quarks using trilepton final states in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV

A search is performed for charged-lepton flavor violating processes in top quark (𝑡) production and decay. The data were collected by the CMS experiment from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The selected events are required to contain one opposite-sign electron-muon pair, a third charged lepton (electron or muon), and at least one jet of which no more than one is associated with a bottom quark. Boosted decision trees are used to distinguish signal from background, exploiting differences in the kinematics of the final states particles. The data are consistent with the standard model expectation. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are placed in the context of effective field theory on the Wilson coefficients, which range between 0.024–0.424 TeV −2 depending on the flavor of the associated light quark and the Lorentz structure of the interaction. These limits are converted to upper limits on branching fractions involving up (charm) quarks, 𝑡 → 𝑒⁢𝜇⁢𝑢 (𝑡 → 𝑒⁢𝜇⁢𝑐), of 0.032⁢(0.498) × 10 −6 , 0.022⁢(0.369) × 10 −6 , and 0.012⁢(0.216) × 10 −6 for tensorlike, vectorlike, and scalarlike interactions, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Development and optimization of a nonlinear multiparameter model for the human operator

A systematic method is proposed for the development, optimization, and comparison of controller-models for the human operator. This is suitable for any designed model, even multiparameter systems. A random search technique is chosen for the parameter optimization. As valuation criteria for the quality of the model development the criterion function - the comparison between the input and output functions of the human operator and those of the model - and the most important characteristic values and functions of the statistical signal theory are used. A nonlinear multiparameter model for the human operator is being designed which considers the complex input information rate per time in a single display. The nonlinear features of the model are effected by a modified threshold element and a decision algorithm. Different display-configurations as well as various transfer functions of the controlled element are explained by different optimized parameter-combinations.

Johannsen, G.↗

A multimedia adult literacy program: Combining NASA technology, instructional design theory, and authentic literacy concepts

For a number of years, the Software Technology Branch of the Information Systems Directorate has been involved in the application of cutting edge hardware and software technologies to instructional tasks related to NASA projects. The branch has developed intelligent computer aided training shells, instructional applications of virtual reality and multimedia, and computer-based instructional packages that use fuzzy logic for both instructional and diagnostic decision making. One outcome of the work on space-related technology-supported instruction has been the creation of a significant pool of human talent in the branch with current expertise on the cutting edges of instructional technologies. When the human talent is combined with advanced technologies for graphics, sound, video, CD-ROM, and high speed computing, the result is a powerful research and development group that both contributes to the applied foundations of instructional technology and creates effective instructional packages that take advantage of a range of advanced technologies. Several branch projects are currently underway that combine NASA-developed expertise to significant instructional problems in public education. The branch, for example, has developed intelligent computer aided software to help high school students learn physics and staff are currently working on a project to produce educational software for young children with language deficits. This report deals with another project, the adult literacy tutor. Unfortunately, while there are a number of computer-based instructional packages available for adult literacy instruction, most of them are based on the same instructional models that failed these students when they were in school. The teacher-centered, discrete skill and drill-oriented, instructional strategies, even when they are supported by color computer graphics and animation, that form the foundation for most of the computer-based literacy packages currently on the market may not be the most effective or most desirable way to use computer technology in literacy programs. This project is developing a series of instructional packages that are based on a different instructional model - authentic instruction. The instructional development model used to create these packages is also different. Instead of using the traditional five stage linear, sequential model based on behavioral learning theory, the project uses the recursive, reflective design and development model (R2D2) that is based on cognitive learning theory, particularly the social constructivism of Vygotsky, and an epistemology based on critical theory. Using alternative instructional and instructional development theories, the result of the summer faculty fellowship is LiteraCity, a multimedia adult literacy instructional package that is a simulation of finding and applying for a job. The program, which is about 120 megabytes, is distributed on CD-ROM.

Willis, Jerry W.↗

Parallel Consensual Neural Networks

A new neural network architecture is proposed and applied in classification of remote sensing/geographic data from multiple sources. The new architecture is called the parallel consensual neural network and its relation to hierarchical and ensemble neural networks is discussed. The parallel consensual neural network architecture is based on statistical consensus theory. The input data are transformed several times and the different transformed data are applied as if they were independent inputs and are classified using stage neural networks. Finally, the outputs from the stage networks are then weighted and combined to make a decision. Experimental results based on remote sensing data and geographic data are given. The performance of the consensual neural network architecture is compared to that of a two-layer (one hidden layer) conjugate-gradient backpropagation neural network. The results with the proposed neural network architecture compare favorably in terms of classification accuracy to the backpropagation method.

Benediktsson, J. A.↗

Empirical Tests of the Predicted Footprint for Uncontrolled Satellite Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth s equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗

Statistical Issues for Uncontrolled Reentry Hazards Empirical Tests of the Predicted Footprint for Uncontrolled Satellite Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering objects to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth s equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗

Crystallographic Stability of Metastable Phase Formed by Containerless Processing in REFeO3 (RE: Rare-Earth Element)

Undercooling a melt often facilitates a metastable phase to nucleate preferentially. Although the classical nucleation theory shows that the most critical factor for forming a metastable phase is the interface free energy, the crystallographic stability is also indispensable for the phase to be frozen at ambient temperature. In compound materials such as oxides, authors have suggested that the decisive factors for forming a critical nucleus are not only the free energy difference but also the difference of the entropy of fusion between stable and metastable phases. In the present study, using REFeO3 (RE: rare-earth element) as a model material, we investigate the formation of a metastable phase from undercooled melts with respect to the competitive nucleation and crystallographical stabilities of both phases.

Kuribayashi, Kazuhiko↗

Inferring the shape of data: a probabilistic framework for analysing experiments in the natural sciences

A critical step in data analysis for many different types of experiments is the identification of features with theoretically defined shapes in N -dimensional datasets; examples of this process include finding peaks in multi-dimensional molecular spectra or emitters in fluorescence microscopy images. Identifying such features involves determining if the overall shape of the data is consistent with an expected shape; however, it is generally unclear how to quantitatively make this determination. In practice, many analysis methods employ subjective, heuristic approaches, which complicates the validation of any ensuing results—especially as the amount and dimensionality of the data increase. Here, we present a probabilistic solution to this problem by using Bayes’ rule to calculate the probability that the data have any one of several potential shapes. This probabilistic approach may be used to objectively compare how well different theories describe a dataset, identify changes between datasets and detect features within data using a corollary method called Bayesian Inference-based Template Search; several proof-of-principle examples are provided. Altogether, this mathematical framework serves as an automated ‘engine’ capable of computationally executing analysis decisions currently made by visual inspection across the sciences.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗