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At least 343 records · Page 19

Orbit determination accuracy assessment for an asteroid flyby - A Galileo case study

The Galileo spacecraft may be targeted for a close flyby of an asteroid on its way to an encounter with Jupiter. An orbit determination accuracy analysis was carried out for the case of the asteroid 29 Amphitrite based on the use of radio metric and optical data types. Prior to encounter, the uncertainty in the asteroid's position, based on astrometric observations from earth, amounts to several hundred kilometers. This ephemeris uncertainty constitutes the dominant error in the determination of the spacecraft orbit with respect to Amphitrite. It is shown that the spacecraft-asteroid relative position can be improved by imaging asteroid-star pairs with the Galileo charge-coupled device (CCD) camera, enabling an accurate flyby of the asteroid. The main benefit of optical navigation is to enable the instrument pointing updates necessary for closeup viewing of the asteroid. A discussion of the evolution of the target error ellipse parameters as a function of data coverage and various combinations of radiometric and optical data types is also presented.

Kechichian, Jean A.↗

Quantifying Above-Cloud Aerosols through Integrating Multi-Sensor Measurements from A-Train Satellites

Quantifying above-cloud aerosols can help improve the assessment of aerosol intercontinental transport and climate impacts. Large-scale measurements of aerosol above low-level clouds had been generally unexplored until very recently when CALIPSO lidar started to acquire aerosol and cloud profiles in June 2006. Despite CALIPSO s unique capability of measuring above-cloud aerosol optical depth (AOD), such observations are substantially limited in spatial coverage because of the lidar s near-zero swath. We developed an approach that integrates measurements from A-Train satellite sensors (including CALIPSO lidar, OMI, and MODIS) to extend CALIPSO above-cloud AOD observations to substantially larger areas. We first examine relationships between collocated CALIPSO above-cloud AOD and OMI absorbing aerosol index (AI, a qualitative measure of AOD for elevated dust and smoke aerosol) as a function of MODIS cloud optical depth (COD) by using 8-month data in the Saharan dust outflow and southwest African smoke outflow regions. The analysis shows that for a given cloud albedo, above-cloud AOD correlates positively with AI in a linear manner. We then apply the derived relationships with MODIS COD and OMI AI measurements to derive above-cloud AOD over the whole outflow regions. In this talk, we will present spatial and day-to-day variations of the above-cloud AOD and the estimated direct radiative forcing by the above-cloud aerosols.

Zhang, Yan↗

Does Bayesian model averaging improve polynomial extrapolations? Two toy problems as tests

We assess the accuracy of Bayesian polynomial extrapolations from small parameter values, x, to large values of x. We consider a set of polynomials of fixed order, intended as a proxy for a fixed-order effective field theory (EFT) description of data. We employ Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to combine results from different order polynomials (EFT orders). Our study considers two 'toy problems' where the underlying function used to generate data sets is known. We use Bayesian parameter estimation to extract the polynomial coefficients that describe these data at low x. A 'naturalness' prior is imposed on the coefficients, so that they are $\mathcal{O}(1)$. We BMA different polynomial degrees by weighting each according to its Bayesian evidence and compare the predictive performance of this BMA with that of the individual polynomials. In conclusion, the credibility intervals on the BMA forecast have the stated coverage properties more consistently than does the highest evidence polynomial, though BMA does not necessarily outperform every polynomial.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Using NASA LANCE Near Real-Time Earth Observations for Disaster Risk Reduction

The NASA Earth Science Disasters Program handles requests from stakeholders and provides rapid response for Disaster Risk Reduction using Near Real-Time (NRT) products from NASA’s Land, Atmosphere NRT Capability for Earth Observing System (EOS) (LANCE). The combination of all available LANCE NRT satellite products provides global coverage at multiple times per day, which makes it possible to help users in different phases of the disaster’s life cycle. For wildfires and volcano eruption disasters, LANCE NRT fire and atmosphere products have been used to locate fires and high-temperature heat sources, and to assess the extent of air pollutions. Knowledge of the geographical position and direction of smokes, fires, lava flows provided critical information for disaster prediction and prevention. For hurricanes, tropical cyclones and earthquakes, LANCE global flood products and NASA’s Black Marble night-time light products have been used for monitoring land cover and land use change over time in disaster impacted areas. Users can use pre- and post-disaster maps to assess the extent of damage, and to make decisions for activities in reconstruction and recovery in infrastructure and health on the ground. LANCE NRT data are made available through the Earth data website and have been archived and visualized in NASA Disasters Mapping Portal, NASA LANCE Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) and NASA Worldview for the use of stakeholders.

Tian Yao↗

Comparison of Four Precipitation Forcing Datasets in Land Information System Simulations over the Continental U.S.

This paper and poster presented a description of the current real-time SPoRT-LIS run over the southeastern CONUS to provide high-resolution, land surface initialization grids for local numerical model forecasts at NWS forecast offices. The LIS hourly output also offers a supplemental dataset to aid in situational awareness for convective initiation forecasts, assessing flood potential, and monitoring drought at fine scales. It is a goal of SPoRT and several NWS forecast offices to expand the LIS to an entire CONUS domain, so that LIS output can be utilized by NWS Western Region offices, among others. To make this expansion cleanly so as to provide high-quality land surface output, SPoRT tested new precipitation datasets in LIS as an alternative forcing dataset to the current radar+gauge Stage IV product. Similar to the Stage IV product, the NMQ product showed comparable patterns of precipitation and soil moisture distribution, but suffered from radar gaps in the intermountain West, and incorrectly set values to zero instead of missing in the data-void regions of Mexico and Canada. The other dataset tested was the next-generation GOES-R QPE algorithm, which experienced a high bias in both coverage and intensity of accumulated precipitation relative to the control (NLDAS2), Stage IV, and NMQ simulations. The resulting root zone soil moisture was substantially higher in most areas.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Integrating NASA Satellite Data Into USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board Decision Making Environment To Improve Agricultural Estimates

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. The goal of the current project is to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA satellite precipitation and soil moisture observations into WAOB's decision making environment. Precipitation (Level 3 gridded) is from the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Soil moisture (Level 2 swath and Level 3 gridded) is generated by the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) and operationally produced by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GBS DISC). A root zone soil moisture (RZSM) product is also generated, via assimilation of the Level 3 LPRM data by a land surface model (part of a related project). Data services to be available for these products include GeoTIFF, GDS (GrADS Data Server), WMS (Web Map Service), WCS (Web Coverage Service), and NASA Giovanni. Project benchmarking is based on retrospective analyses of WAOB analog year comparisons. The latter are between a given year and historical years with similar weather patterns and estimated crop yields. An analog index (AI) was developed to introduce a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years. Results thus far show that crop yield estimates derived from TMPA precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation measurements. Work is continuing to include LPRM surface soil moisture data and model-assimilated RZSM.

Teng, William↗

Aircraft System Noise Prediction Uncertainty Quantification for a Hybrid Wing Body Subsonic Transport Concept

Aircraft system level noise prediction for advanced, unconventional concepts has undergone significant improvement over the past two decades. The prediction modeling uncertainty must be quantified so that potential benefits of unconventional configurations, which are outside of the range of empirical models, can be reliably assessed. This paper builds on previous work in an effort to improve estimates of element prediction uncertainties where the prediction methodology has been improved, or new experimental validation data are available, to provide an estimate of the system level uncertainty in the prediction process. In general, the uncertainty of the prediction will be strongly dependent on the aircraft configuration as well as which technologies are integrated. While the quantitative uncertainty values contained here are specific to the hybrid wing body design presented, the underlying process is the same regardless of configuration. A refined process for determining the uncertainty for each element of the noise prediction is detailed in this paper. The system level uncertainty in the prediction of the aircraft noise is determined at the three certification points, using a Monte Carlo method. Comparisons with previous work show a reduction of 1 EPNdB in the 95%coverage interval of the cumulative noise level. The largest impediment for continued reduction in uncertainty for the hybrid wing body concept is the need for improved modeling and validation experiments for fan noise, propulsion airframe aeroacoustic effects, and the Krueger flap, which comprise the bulk of the uncertainty in the cumulative certification noise level.

June, Jason C.↗

Effect of Temperature on Thrombogenicity Testing of Biomaterials in an In Vitro Dynamic Flow Loop System

To develop and standardize a reliable in vitro dynamic thrombogenicity test protocol, the key test parameters that could impact thrombus formation need to be investigated and understood. In this study, we evaluated the effect of temperature on the thrombogenic responses (thrombus surface coverage, thrombus weight, and platelet count reduction) of various materials using an in vitro blood flow loop test system. Whole blood from live sheep and cow donors was used to assess four materials with varying thrombogenic potentials: negative-control polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), positive-control latex, silicone, and high-density polyethylene (HDPE). Blood, heparinized to a donor-specific concentration, was recirculated through a polyvinyl chloride tubing loop containing the test material at room temperature (22–24°C) for 1 hour, or at 37°C for 1 or 2 hours. The flow loop system could effectively differentiate a thrombogenic material (latex) from the other materials for both test temperatures and blood species ( p < 0.05). However, compared with 37°C, testing at room temperature appeared to have slightly better sensitivity in differentiating silicone (intermediate thrombogenic potential) from the relatively thromboresistant materials (PTFE and HDPE, p < 0.05). These data suggest that testing at room temperature may be a viable option for dynamic thrombogenicity assessment of biomaterials and medical devices.

Engineering↗

Signal Processing Methods for Liquid Rocket Engine Combustion Stability Assessments

The J2X Gas Generator engine design specifications include dynamic, spontaneous, and broadband combustion stability requirements. These requirements are verified empirically based high frequency chamber pressure measurements and analyses. Dynamic stability is determined with the dynamic pressure response due to an artificial perturbation of the combustion chamber pressure (bomb testing), and spontaneous and broadband stability are determined from the dynamic pressure responses during steady operation starting at specified power levels. J2X Workhorse Gas Generator testing included bomb tests with multiple hardware configurations and operating conditions, including a configuration used explicitly for engine verification test series. This work covers signal processing techniques developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to help assess engine design stability requirements. Dynamic stability assessments were performed following both the CPIA 655 guidelines and a MSFC in-house developed statistical-based approach. The statistical approach was developed to better verify when the dynamic pressure amplitudes corresponding to a particular frequency returned back to pre-bomb characteristics. This was accomplished by first determining the statistical characteristics of the pre-bomb dynamic levels. The pre-bomb statistical characterization provided 95% coverage bounds; these bounds were used as a quantitative measure to determine when the post-bomb signal returned to pre-bomb conditions. The time for post-bomb levels to acceptably return to pre-bomb levels was compared to the dominant frequency-dependent time recommended by CPIA 655. Results for multiple test configurations, including stable and unstable configurations, were reviewed. Spontaneous stability was assessed using two processes: 1) characterization of the ratio of the peak response amplitudes to the excited chamber acoustic mode amplitudes and 2) characterization of the variability of the peak response's frequency over the test duration. This characterization process assists in evaluating the discreteness of a signal as well as the stability of the chamber response. Broadband stability was assessed using a running root-mean-square evaluation. These techniques were also employed, in a comparative analysis, on available Fastrac data, and these results are presented here.

Kenny, R. Jeremy↗

Future Opportunities and Challenges in Remote Sensing of Drought

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and global efforts such as the Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS), National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and Group on Earth Observations (GEO), as well as the establishment of regional drought centers (e.g., European Drought Observatory) and geospatial visualization and monitoring systems (e.g, NASA SERVIR) have been undertaken to improve drought monitoring and early warning systems throughout the world. The suite of innovative remote sensing tools that have recently emerged will be looked upon to fill important data and knowledge gaps (NIDIS, 2007; NRC, 2007) to address a wide range of drought-related issues including food security, water scarcity, and human health.

Wardlow, Brian D.↗

Machine Learning for Mapping Multipactor Susceptibility in RF Systems: Capabilities and Generalization Constraints

Multipactor is a surface-driven electron avalanche phenomenon that degrades the performance and reliability of radio-frequency (RF) systems in particle accelerator and vacuum electronics applications. Multipactor behavior in a given device structure is conventionally assessed through susceptibility charts, which provide a parameter-space characterization of the instability. In this work, we assess the capabilities of machine-learning (ML) models to learn and predict such susceptibility charts and analyze the constraints governing their generalization across materials. Using a simulation-derived dataset spanning six distinct secondary-electron-yield material profiles in a canonical two-surface planar geometry, we train supervised regression models and artificial neural networks to predict the time-averaged electron growth rate, δavg, across the relevant parameter space. Model performance is evaluated using metrics that explicitly probe the structure of susceptibility charts, including Intersection over Union, Structural Similarity Index, and correlation analysis. Tree-based ensemble models outperform neural-network models in reconstructing susceptibility regions and in generalizing across material domains. Principal-component analysis reveals disjoint material feature distributions, indicating that the piecewise mode structure of multipactor susceptibility is difficult to represent with a single global model and that generalization is constrained by data coverage rather than by model complexity. An exhaustive reduced-coverage study further shows that sparse material-space coverage can yield mean performance in the same general range but producing large variability in the susceptibility-region overlap. These results clarify the capabilities of ML-based surrogate models for parameter-space characterization of multipactor discharge. They also provide guidance for their appropriate use in RF system design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

High-accuracy, high-resolution gravity profiles from 2 years of the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission

Satellite altimeter data from the first 44 repeat cycles (2 years) of the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission (EWRM) were averaged to improve accuracy, resolution and coverage of the marine gravity field. Individual 17-day repeat cycles were first edited and differentiated, resulting in the along-track vertical deflection (i.e., gravity disturbance). To increase the signal-to-noise ratio, 44 of these cycles were then averaged to form a single highly accurate vertical deflection profile. The largest contribution to the vertical deflection error is short-wavelength altimeter noise and longer-wavelength oceanographic variability; the combined noise level is typically 6 microrad. Both types of noise are reduced by averaging many repeat cycles. Over most ocean areas the uncertainty of the average profile is less than 1 microrad which corresponds to 1 mgal of along-track gravity disturbance. However, in areas of seasonal ice coverage, its uncertainty can exceed 5 microrad. To assess the resolution of individual and average Geosat gravity profiles, the cross-spectral analysis technique was applied to repeat profiles. Individual Geosat repeat cycles are coherent (greater than 0.5) for wavelengths greater than about 30 km and become increasingly incoherent at shorter wavelengths.

Sandwell, David T.↗

Assessment and Applications of NASA Ozone Data Products Derived from Aura OMI-MLS Satellite Measurements in Context of the GMI Chemical Transport Model

Measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), both onboard the Aura spacecraft, have been used to produce daily global maps of column and profile ozone since August 2004. Here we compare and evaluate three strategies to obtain daily maps of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from OMI and MLS measurements: trajectory mapping, direct profile retrieval, and data assimilation. Evaluation is based upon an assessment that includes validation using ozonesondes and comparisons with the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model (CTM). We investigate applications of the three ozone data products from near-decadal and inter-annual timescales to day-to-day case studies. Zonally averaged inter-annual changes in tropospheric ozone from all of the products in any latitude range are of the order 1-2 Dobson Units while changes (increases) over the 8-year Aura record investigated http://eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/atbd-category/49 vary approximately 2-4 Dobson Units. It is demonstrated that all of the ozone products can measure and monitor exceptional tropospheric ozone events including major forest fire and pollution transport events. Stratospheric ozone during the Aura record has several anomalous inter-annual events including stratospheric warming split events in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics that are well captured using the data assimilation ozone profile product. Data assimilation with continuous daily global coverage and vertical ozone profile information is the best of the three strategies at generating a global tropospheric and stratospheric ozone product for science applications.

GMI↗

Assessment of Ice Shape Roughness Using a Self-Orgainizing Map Approach

Self-organizing maps are neural-network techniques for representing noisy, multidimensional data aligned along a lower-dimensional and nonlinear manifold. For a large set of noisy data, each element of a finite set of codebook vectors is iteratively moved in the direction of the data closest to the winner codebook vector. Through successive iterations, the codebook vectors begin to align with the trends of the higher-dimensional data. Prior investigations of ice shapes have focused on using self-organizing maps to characterize mean ice forms. The Icing Research Branch has recently acquired a high resolution three dimensional scanner system capable of resolving ice shape surface roughness. A method is presented for the evaluation of surface roughness variations using high-resolution surface scans based on a self-organizing map representation of the mean ice shape. The new method is demonstrated for 1) an 18-in. NACA 23012 airfoil 2 AOA just after the initial ice coverage of the leading 5 of the suction surface of the airfoil, 2) a 21-in. NACA 0012 at 0AOA following coverage of the leading 10 of the airfoil surface, and 3) a cold-soaked 21-in.NACA 0012 airfoil without ice. The SOM method resulted in descriptions of the statistical coverage limits and a quantitative representation of early stages of ice roughness formation on the airfoils. Limitations of the SOM method are explored, and the uncertainty limits of the method are investigated using the non-iced NACA 0012 airfoil measurements.

Icing↗

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025,60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause- effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Shepherd, J. M.↗

NSI operations center

The NASA Science Internet (NSI) Network Operations Staff is responsible for providing reliable communication connectivity for the NASA science community. As the NSI user community expands, so does the demand for greater interoperability with users and resources on other networks (e.g., NSFnet, ESnet), both nationally and internationally. Coupled with the science community's demand for greater access to other resources is the demand for more reliable communication connectivity. Recognizing this, the NASA Science Internet Project Office (NSIPO) expands its Operations activities. By January 1990, Network Operations was equipped with a telephone hotline, and its staff was expanded to six Network Operations Analysts. These six analysts provide 24-hour-a-day, 7-day-a-week coverage to assist site managers with problem determination and resolution. The NSI Operations staff monitors network circuits and their associated routers. In most instances, NSI Operations diagnoses and reports problems before users realize a problem exists. Monitoring of the NSI TCP/IP Network is currently being done with Proteon's Overview monitoring system. The Overview monitoring system displays a map of the NSI network utilizing various colors to indicate the conditions of the components being monitored. Each node or site is polled via the Simple Network Monitoring Protocol (SNMP). If a circuit goes down, Overview alerts the Network Operations staff with an audible alarm and changes the color of the component. When an alert is received, Network Operations personnel immediately verify and diagnose the problem, coordinate repair with other networking service groups, track problems, and document problem and resolution into a trouble ticket data base. NSI Operations offers the NSI science community reliable connectivity by exercising prompt assessment and resolution of network problems.

Zanley, Nancy L.↗

Evidence of Urban Precipitation Anomalies from Satellite and Ground-Based Measurements

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

An Assessment of SeaWiFS and MODIS Ocean Coverage

Ocean coverages of SeaWiFS and MODIS were assessed for three seasons by considering monthly mean values of surface winds speeds and cloud cover. Mean and maximum coverages combined SeaWiFS and MODIS by considering combined coverages for ten-degree increments of the MODIS orbital mean anomaly. From this analysis the mean and maximum combined coverages for SeaWiFS and MODIS were determined for one and four-day periods for spring, summer, and winter seasons. Loss of coverage due to Sun glint and cloud cover were identified for both the individual and combined cases. Our analyses indicate that MODIS will enhance ocean coverage for all three seasons examined. ne combined SeaWiFS/MODIS show an increase of coverage of 42.2% to 48.7% over SeaWiFS alone for the three seasons studied; the increase in maximum one day coverage ranges from 47.5% to 52.0%. The increase in four-day coverage for the combined case ranged from 31.0% to 35.8% for mean coverage and 33.1 % to 39.2% for maximum coverage. We computed meridional distributions of coverages by binning the data into five-degree latitude bands. Our analysis shows a strong seasonal dependence of coverage. In general the meridional analysis indicates that increase in coverages for SeaWiFS/MODIS over SeaWiFS alone are greatest near the solar declination.

Woodward, Robert H.↗