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At least 343 records · Page 19

Brief communication: Monitoring snow depth using small, cheap, and easy-to-deploy snow–ground interface temperature sensors

Abstract. Temporally continuous snow depth estimates are vital for understanding changing snow patterns and impacts on permafrost in the Arctic. We trained a random forest machine learning model to predict snow depth from variability in snow–ground interface temperature. The model performed well on Alaska's Seward Peninsula where it was trained and at Arctic evaluation sites (RMSE ≤ 0.15 m). It performed poorly at temperate sites with deeper snowpacks, partially due to training data limitations. Small temperature sensors are cheap and easy to deploy, so this technique enables spatially distributed and temporally continuous snowpack monitoring at high latitudes to an extent previously infeasible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Follow-up observations for IceCube-170922A: Detection of rapid near-infrared variability and intensive monitoring of TXS 0506+056

Abstract We present our follow-up observations to search for an electromagnetic counterpart of the IceCube high-energy neutrino IceCube-170922A. Monitoring observations of a likely counterpart, TXS 0506+056, are also described. First, we quickly took optical and near-infrared images of seven flat-spectrum radio sources within the IceCube error region right after the neutrino detection and found a rapid flux decline of TXS 0506+056 in Kanata/HONIR J-band data. Motivated by this discovery, intensive follow-up observations of TXS 0506+056 were continuously performed, including our monitoring imaging observations, spectroscopic observations, and polarimetric observations in optical and near-infrared wavelengths. TXS 0506+056 showed a large-amplitude (∼1.0 mag) variability in a time scale of several days or longer, although no significant variability was detected in a time scale of a day or shorter. TXS 0506+056 also showed a bluer-when-brighter trend in optical and near-infrared wavelengths. Structure functions of the variabilities were examined and indicate that TXS 0506+056 is not a special blazar in terms of optical variability. Polarization measurement results of TXS 0506+056 are also discussed.

(galaxies:) BL Lacertae objects: general↗

Decoding the Mechanisms of Phase Transitions from In Situ Microscopy Observations

Abstract Analysis of the temperature‐ and stimulus‐dependent imaging data toward elucidation of the physical transformations is an ubiquitous problem in multiple fields. Here, temperature‐induced phase transition in BaTiO 3 is explored using the machine learning analysis of domain morphologies visualized via variable‐temperature scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) imaging data. This approach is based on the multivariate statistical analysis of the time or temperature dependence of the statistical descriptors of the system, derived in turn from the categorical classification of observed domain structures or projection on the continuous parameter space of the feature extraction‐dimensionality reduction transform. The proposed workflow offers a powerful tool for the exploration of the dynamic data based on the statistics of image representation as a function of the external control variable to visualize the transformation pathways during phase transitions and chemical reactions. This can include the mesoscopic STEM data as demonstrated here, but also optical, chemical imaging, etc., data. It can further be extended to the higher dimensional spaces, for example, analysis of the combinatorial libraries of materials compositions.

Valleti, Sai Mani Prudhvi↗

Code Description for "Brief Communication: Monitoring snow depth using small, cheap, and easy-to-deploy ground surface temperature sensors"

Temporally continuous snow depth estimates are vital for understanding changing snow patterns and impacts on permafrost in the Arctic. We train a random forest machine learning model to predict snow depth from variability in ground surface temperature. To our knowledge, this is the first time that small ground surface temperature sensors have been used to estimate snow depth. The model performs well at sites where the model was trained and at pan-arctic evaluation sites (RMSE <= 0.15 m). Small temperature sensors are cheap and easy-to-deploy, so this technique enables spatially distributed and temporally continuous snowpack monitoring to an extent previously infeasible. The model is flexible and can be applied to datasets retroactively to retrieve snow depth estimates at additional sites. This code package includes a *.joblib file of the trained random forest model and a *.ipynb file showing how to clean input data, train the random forest model, and apply the model.

Bachand, Claire↗

Strong temporal variability in methane fluxes from natural gas well pad soils

We measured methane and carbon dioxide fluxes at natural gas well pad soils and undisturbed soils in the Rocky Mountain and Gulf Coast regions of the United States, including producing and gas storage wells. We collected both short-term (15 min) and multi-day (between 3 and 8), continuous measurements at 47 well pads and two undisturbed locations. Methane fluxes varied by more than an order of magnitude over periods as short as 30 min (e.g., 19–593 mg m -2 h -1 in one instance), and diurnal and seasonal variability was also significant (e.g., spring-to-fall change from 509 to 14174 mg m -2 h -1 ). We hypothesize that short-term flux variability was caused by pulsed flow of methane during its migration through the subsurface. Barometric pressure and well conditions likely impacted fluxes, but we found only weak evidence for this. Bacterial methanotrophy appeared to impact methane flux magnitude and variability. We injected methane into the subsurface at one well, and we found that, while fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide, and combustible soil gas concentrations, increased in response to the injection, the response was not uniform, and fluxes exhibited high hourly-scale variability, in spite of a constant injection rate. Methane fluxes tended to be higher at well pad soils compared to background soils (often much higher), and fluxes tended to be higher at well pad locations closer to the well head.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Stochastic scheduling of generating units with weekly energy storage: A hybrid decomposition approach

We propose a solution method for the large-scale stochastic unit commitment (SUC) problem with weekly-dispatched energy storage and significant weather-dependent stochastic generating capacity. Weekly storage facilities that mostly charge during weekends and discharge during weekdays require a weekly scheduling of generating units, which result in a large-scale optimization problem. This SUC problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic model and we use the conditional value-at-risk as a risk measure. Using a Benders framework, the proposed solution method decomposes the problem into a mixed-integer linear master problem and linear and continuous subproblems. The master problem corresponds to the first-stage decisions throughout the week and includes all the commitment (binary) variables and their corresponding constraints. The subproblems correspond to the actual dispatch of the generating units on a weekly basis. Based on the success of column-and-constraint generation algorithms to solve robust optimization problems, we improve the low communication between the master problem and the subproblems in the standard Benders decomposition by adding primal variables and constraints from the subproblems to the master problem, which provides a better approximation of the recourse function. Furthermore, our computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed decomposition method using an instance of the South Carolina synthetic system with 90 generating units under 40 scenarios.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Investigating Tropical Versus Extratropical Influences on the Southern Hemisphere Tropical Edge in the Unified Model

Abstract Since the late 1970s, observations have shown a widening of the tropical Hadley cell (HC) circulation. State‐of‐the‐art climate models reproduce the general trend along with a projected continuous expansion. Discrepancies in expansion rates of observation‐ and model‐based studies have been attributed to differences in applied methods, natural variability and model shortcomings. Furthermore, the driving influence of tropical or extratropical processes on these changes is not well understood. All of this highlights the dynamical mechanisms and the region of origin controlling the tropical width are still insufficiently understood. Here we examine the influence of systematic model biases of the atmosphere‐only Unified Model (UM) onto the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical edge. We utilize nudged experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures, where potential temperature and horizontal winds are relaxed back to ERA‐Interim reanalysis for a 20‐year period in selected regions. Correcting model biases in the tropics and extratropics separately allows us to dissect the dominant remote impacts of present model errors onto the SH tropical edge simulation. The experiments are applied to established tropical width metrics ranging from near‐surface to upper‐level metrics capturing the poleward flank of the HC. We find both regions work remotely to reduce errors in the UM fields and location of the tropical edge. Surprisingly, correcting the extratropical biases, south of 45°S, more consistently improves the tropical width across the metrics and seasons than nudging the tropics (10°N–10°S). These findings demonstrate the substantial role of extratropical influences in locating the SH tropical edge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analytical solutions of the Arrhenius-Semenov problem for constant volume burn

Analytical solutions to the Semenov thermal ignition problem for constant volume burn governed by Arrhenius reaction kinetics are derived. Specifically, an approximate analytical solution technique for the Arrhenius-Semenov differential equation is derived for reaction orders n ϵ R> 0 and exact solutions are also constructed for reaction orders n ϵ N : n ≤ 3. The approximation technique relies on expansion of the respective nondominant terms in the differential equation at the lower and upper bounds of the reaction progress variable in order to create a pair of integrable series. The two integrated series are then connected to create a single continuous analytical solution. Excellent agreement is observed between the analytical approximation and solutions obtained numerically. The presented approximation constitutes a simple and robust strategy for solving the Arrhenius-Semenov problem analytically.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling and Market Design Considerations for Conventional and Decarbonized Resources

The following paper reviews various market design issues that will need to be reconsidered due to anticipated changes in the resources that supply energy in wholesale electricity markets. As the energy supply continues towards decarbonization, the change in resource technologies will affect the fundamentals of production scheduling and the policies to address supply variability and uncertainty. We show through simple numerical examples that the existing market design approach based on fuel costs will result in $0/MWh prices with intermittent price spikes during reserve shortages, but that incorporating more granular reserve pricing, energy storage participation, and price-responsive demand participation can restore efficient market clearing with reasonable pricing outcomes. The market design approach fundamentally shifts from fuel based to opportunity cost based. We briefly review alternative market design frameworks that can support this shift, including intraday markets, decentralized markets, flexibility options, and swing contracts. Market designs may also be required to accommodate or support various out-of-market policies and agreements; ideally, these external factors can be integrated into the market design to facilitate efficient exchanges across longer time scales, between other markets, and in support of public policy goals. The paper concludes by discussing how decarbonization trends may affect the design and use of production cost models for short term operations and long term planning studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Real-time neutron multiplicity and source localization for criticality safety during fuel debris removal

Advancing neutron detection and analysis techniques for complex radiation environments is an ongoing focus in nuclear instrumentation and monitoring. This proposal presents research and development of a generalized real-time neutron monitoring and analysis system, applicable to any detector capable of producing time-tagged neutron count data. While the work is demonstrated using the Neutron Multiplication Analysis Detector (NoMAD), a modular 15-tube helium-3 (He-3) array, due to its availability, spatial resolution, and flexible deployment, the methods developed are extensible to other systems, including organic scintillators and fast digital detectors. This research investigates two complementary analytical techniques for real-time characterization of neutron emitting sources: neutron multiplicity estimation based on the Hage-Cifarelli formalism and spatial localization using supervised machine learning applied to spatial count rate patterns. These methods are designed to operate under dynamic, evolving conditions such as fuel debris retrieval or reactor startup, where neutron-emitting material geometries may be partially unknown or changing over time. By integrating statistical neutron emission data with spatial localization, this research aims to develop and evaluate methods for real time neutron monitoring, source characterization, and material verification. Key contributions include implementation of a low-latency data pipeline for continuous neutron multiplicity analysis, development and validation of machine learning models for spatial inference, and experimental evaluation of system performance under variable measurement conditions. The outcomes are intended to support applications in nuclear safeguards, verification, emergency response, and reactor startup.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A 10-Gb/s Driver/Receiver ASIC and Optical Modules for Particle Physics Experiments

We present the design and test results of a Drivers and Limiting AmplifierS ASIC operating at 10 Gbps (DLAS10) and three Miniature Optical Transmitter/Receiver/Transceiver modules (MTx+, MRx+, and MTRx+) based on DLAS10. DLAS10 can drive two Transmitter Optical Sub-Assemblies (TOSAs) of Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Lasers (VCSELs), receive the signals from two Receiver Optical Sub-Assemblies (ROSAs) that have no embedded limiting amplifiers, or drive a VCSEL TOSA and receive the signal from a ROSA, respectively. Each channel of DLAS10 consists of an input Continuous Time Linear Equalizer (CTLE), a four-stage limiting amplifier (LA), and an output driver. The LA amplifies the signals of variable levels to a stable swing. The output driver drives VCSELs or impedance-controlled traces. DLAS10 is fabricated in a 65 nm CMOS technology. The die is 1 mm x 1 mm. DLAS10 is packaged in a 4 mm x 4 mm 24-pin quad-flat no-leads (QFN) package. DLAS10 has been tested in MTx+, MRx+, and MTRx+ modules. Both measured optical and electrical eye diagrams pass the 10 Gbps eye mask test. Furthermore, the input electrical sensitivity is 40 mVp-p, while the input optical sensitivity is -12 dBm. The total jitter of MRx+ is 29 ps (P-P) with a random jitter of 1.6 ps (RMS) and a deterministic jitter of 9.9 ps. Each MTx+/MTRx+ module consumes 82 mW/ch and 174 mW/ch, respectively.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Stochastic Learning Approach for Binary Optimization: Application to Bayesian Optimal Design of Experiments

Here, we present a novel stochastic approach to binary optimization suited for optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian inverse problems governed by mathematical models such as partial differential equations. The OED utility function, namely, the regularized optimality criterion, is cast into a stochastic objective function in the form of an expectation over a multivariate Bernoulli distribution. The probabilistic objective is then solved by using a stochastic optimization routine to find an optimal observational policy. This formulation (a) is generally applicable to binary optimization problems with soft constraints and is ideal for OED and sensor placement problems; (b) does not require differentiability of the original objective function (e.g., a utility function in OED applications) with respect to the design variable, and thus it enables direct employment of sparsity-enforcing penalty functions such as $\ell_0$, without needing to utilize a continuation procedure or apply a rounding technique; (c) exhibits much lower computational cost than traditional gradient-based relaxation approaches; and (d) can be applied to both linear and nonlinear OED problems with proper choice of the utility function. The proposed approach is analyzed from an optimization perspective with detailed convergence analysis of the optimization approach and is also analyzed from a machine learning perspective with correspondence to policy gradient reinforcement learning. The approach is demonstrated numerically by using an idealized two-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problem and validated by extensive numerical experiments carried out for sensor placement in a parameter identification setup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

CTGAN-TVAE

SAND2026-18914O CTGAN-TVAE (Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks-Tabular Variational Autoencoders) generates extensive sets of variable generation data through a hybrid framework. It enhances latent space representation by combining TVAE's robust feature-embedding with CTGAN's ability to condition categorical variables such as time. CTGAN-TVAE employs a fully connected neural network within a conditional generative adversarial network framework to manage continuous and categorical data effectively, capturing complex feature interactions without needing sequential modeling. This was developed as part of NNSA-MSIPP: Minority Serving Institution Partnership Program, Grant Number DE-NA0004016. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Newlun, Cody [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Liver↗

Development of a Novel Magnesium Alloy for Thixomolding® of Automotive Components (Final Report)

Magnesium (Mg) alloy die-castings are increasingly used in the automobile industry to achieve cost effective mass reduction, especially in systems where multiple components can be integrated into a single thin wall die-casting. However, there are several component quality restrictions in thin-walled Mg die castings, including variability in dimensional accuracy, part-to-part variation in mechanical properties, and porosity in the final part, which has limited the continued growth of die-cast components in the automobile industry. An alternative to die-casting is the process of thixomolding®. While the die-casting process relies on filling a mold at high speeds with the alloy in the completely molten state, the thixomolding® process fills a mold with a thixotropic alloy in a semi-solid slurry state at a temperature between the liquidus and solidus temperatures. Ideally, the material should be ~30–65% solid rather than being completely liquid at the beginning of the injection process. Advantages of the thixomolding® process include a finer grain structure, lower porosity, improved dimensional accuracy, improved part-to part consistency, improved mechanical properties, particularly ductility in the component, the ability to reduce wall thickness for mass savings, and longer tool life due to lower process temperatures. The objective of this collaborative project between Oak Ridge National Laboratory, FCA US LLC, and Leggera Technologies was to develop one or more novel Mg alloys more suitable for thixomolding® automotive structural components than the current die-casting alloys used for this process. The primary interest was to improve ductility while maintaining tensile and fatigue strengths, as these are properties that are critical for use in body and chassis structural applications. Since good corrosion resistance is also desirable for this application, this property was also considered when evaluating promising alloy compositions. An initial evaluation of existing components thixomolded® using AM60 was performed and microstructure, and tensile properties were evaluated for the baseline alloy. Targets were established for ease of processing (characterized by the melting range defined as the difference between the liquidus and the solidus), strength, and ductility. Computational modeling was used to identify promising alloys and selected alloys were cast in laboratory scale heats. Properties measured from laboratory scale heats were used to down-select two alloys for further evaluation and component fabrication. Two alloys were prepared in industrial scale heats, cut into small pieces (chips), and thixomolding® trials were initiated. Trial components were successfully fabricated using one alloy composition, but it was concluded that further refinement of the thixomolding® process parameters are required to successfully fabricate component using second alloy. Microstructure and mechanical properties were evaluated on the material removed from the fabricated component and properties were compared to the baseline alloy. Although mechanical properties of the alloys showed improvement over the baseline alloy, it was determined that modifications to the thixomolding® process would result in better microstructure control with further improvement in properties leading to successful commercialization. A provisional patent application has already been filed on the new alloys developed as part of the project.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessing the Economic Value of Underground Thermal Storage for Hybrid Geothermal Power

Solutions are needed to address resource adequacy in the electric power system for highly decarbonized systems. The storage duration, the length of time a storage device can provide continuous output at its rated capacity, must be sufficient to receive full credit toward resource adequacy. Longer peaks and high fractions of variable renewable generation have increased the required duration to potentially seasonal durations. Underground Thermal Energy Storage (UTES) can be adapted to a hybrid storage power plant or heating and cooling applications to satisfy the need for long-duration storage. In this study, we use the Renewable Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to evaluate the increase in value for an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) resources by adding UTES. In modeled scenarios, using geothermal without storage as a baseline we compare the increase in economic value for plants with a range of storage characteristics. The added value of a hybrid storage plant changes depending on assumptions including the length of storage duration, efficiency, and ability to charge storage from the grid during periods of low energy prices. Relating proposed characteristics for geothermal UTES hybrids to the modeled economic value provides insight into economically viable costs for developing UTES as well as what combination of technology characteristics and future energy and policy assumptions drive significant value increases.

capacity expansion model↗

Analysis of the SBP-SAT Stabilization for Finite Element Methods Part II: Entropy Stability

In the hyperbolic research community, there exists the strong belief that a continuous Galerkin scheme is notoriously unstable and additional stabilization terms have to be added to guarantee stability. In the first part of the series, the application of simultaneous approximation terms for linear problems is investigated where the boundary conditions are imposed weakly. By applying this technique, the authors demonstrate that a pure continuous Galerkin scheme is indeed linearly stable if the boundary conditions are imposed in the correct way. In this work, we extend this investigation to the nonlinear case and focus on entropy conservation. Here, by switching to entropy variables, we provide an estimation of the boundary operators also for nonlinear problems, that guarantee conservation. In numerical simulations, we verify our theoretical analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Chapter 9: Impact of Variable Renewable Energy Sources on Bulk Power System Planning and Operations

Wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) have experienced remarkable growth in recent years, with many consequent benefits within and outside of power systems. At the same time, wind and solar PV have unique characteristics relative to the historically dominant dispatchable technologies like coal, gas, and nuclear power plants that have required and will continue to require changes in power system planning and operations. This chapter discusses planning and operational challenges of integrating wind and solar PV into bulk power systems. We first present the key characteristics of wind and solar PV that differentiate it from conventional technologies, such as variable and uncertain electricity generation, asynchronous interconnection to the power system, and near-zero marginal costs. We then link these characteristics to power system planning and operational challenges at low through high wind and solar penetrations. Finally, we discuss near- and long-term solutions to those challenges, such as diversifying the generation mix and wind and solar fleets, improving system flexibility, diversifying ancillary service products, and integrating generation and transmission planning.

bulk power system↗

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗