Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19

Intrinsic oxygen fugacities of diogenites and mesosiderite clasts

Oxygen fugacities of diogenite and mesosiderite clast material were measured with the double ZrO2 cell technique between 800 and 1150 C. The samples were taken from large clasts in the diogenites Johnstown (En73) and Tatahouine (En75), and the mesosiderites Estherville (En81), West Point (Fo88) and Emery (En68). Fugacity values for all except Emery plot near the wuestite-iron buffer curve and are interpreted as indicating similar source regions and environments of crystallization for the two suites. Emery orthopyroxene records a lower fugacity, close to the fayalite-quartz-iron buffer curve, probably as a result of equilibration with the mesosiderite matrix assemblage. The similarity of redox conditions experienced by mesosiderite orthopyroxenite and diogenites is not sufficient to require a single parent body and, if the common achondrites were derived from Vesta, mesosiderites probably came from a different body.

Hewins, R. H.↗

PRIME: A bottom-up approach to probabilistic rule development

PRIME is a system to be used by an intelligent machine to allow it to operate in an abstract but uncertain (or stochastic) environment. It maintains a model of the effects of the machine's actions in the form of a rule base, which is induced from experience. This bottom-up approach to rule development allows the model to adapt to changes in the environment. Each rule consists of a condition under which the rule is active, an action, the effect of the action on the environment, and an estimate of the probability of this effect occurring. The effect probabilities are used to model the uncertainty in the environment, permitting multiple possible effects for a single action under a particular set of conditions. The objective of the intelligent machine is to satisfy user-specified goals with maximum probability of success. PRIME fulfills this requirement in two ways: it continuously updates the rule base with the most recent information, to ensure the validity of the model; and it generates plans which have the maximum probability of achieving the goals, based on the probability estimates in the rule base. PRIME is composed of three main processes: exploration, generalization, and planning. In exploration, the machine executes various randomly chosen actions, observes the effects on the environment, and updates the rule base accordingly. This process is used to develop the rule base in simulation, as well as to supplement the current knowledge during normal operation. Generalization is the procedure used to induce general rules from experience, which is encoded in the form of specific rules. These general rules extend the machine's knowledge to situations which have not been encountered yet, thereby increasing the capability of the machine to plan effectively. Planning is the process of constructing an optimal sequence of actions to satisfy a goal, using the rule base to predict the effects of these actions and to determine the probability of success of the plan. The rule representation and many other data structures were specifically chosen to maximize the efficiency of these processes. A simulated environment was designed to test the performance of PRIME. The results of experimentation were largely negative. The main problem was that the domain coverage of the rules was inadequate for the number of rules stored in the rule base, due to redundancies in general rules and numerous rules covering ineffective actions. It was determined that a more efficient generalization, and some form of goal-directed exploration, are necessary in order to solve most of the current deficiencies in PRIME.

Miller, Scott A.↗

Plasmaspheric Drainage Plumes: Inner-Magnetospheric Coupling from the IMAGE/EUV Perspective

Plasmaspheric drainage plumes appear in the aftermath of periods of enhanced convection/erosion and are interpreted as a near-equatorial signature of the redistribution of thermal plasma along streamlines. Analysis of IMAGE/EUV observations from "FirstLight" through the end of calendar year 2002 reveals that for Kp greater than or equal to 3, there is an 84% probability of observing a plasmaspheric plume in EUV data. We present a statistical analysis of the geomagnetic conditions [Kp, Dst, and solar wind-induced electric field] associated with EUV plume observations. This analysis yields a peak in observational probability when Kp = 4 and Dst = -50 nT. Additionally, EUV pllume observations are associated with a solar wind-induced convection electric field at Earth [Ev, SM] characterized by bi-modal behavior with a positive mode peaked at approximately 4 m V(raised dot) m(sup -1) and a negative model that peaks at -2 mV (raised dot) m(sup -1). Analysis of the time rate of change of the plume-associated Ev, SM indicated that once the mechanism for plume formation is initiated, a slowly changing convection environment is required to allow for sufficient plume development prior to EUV detection.

Adrian, Mark L.↗

On signal design by the R sub 0 criterion for non-white Gaussian noise channels

The use of the R sub 0 criterion for modulation system design is investigated for channels with non-white Gaussian noise. A signal space representation of the waveform channel is developed, and the cut-off rate R sub 0 for vector channels with additive nonwhite Gaussian noise and unquantized demodulation is derived. When the signal unput to the channel is a continuous random vector, maximization of R sub 0 with constrained average signal energy leads to a water-filling interpretation of optimal energy distribution in signal space. The necessary condition for a finite signal set to maximize R sub 0 with constrained energy and an equally likely probability assignment of signal vectors is presented, and an algorithm is outlined for numerically computing the optimum signal set. A necessary condition on a constrained energy, finite signal set is found which maximizes a Taylor series approximation of R sub 0. This signal set is compared with the finite signal set which has the water-filling average energy distribution.

Bordelon, D. L.↗

Enhancement of Far Field Sound Levels by Refractive Focusing

The enhancement of sound pressure levels resulting from refractive focusing was calculated for meteorological conditions representative of those observed at the MOD-1 site near Boone, N.C. The results show that 10 to 20dB enhancements can occur over ranges of several hundred meters. Localized enhancements in excess of 20dB can occur but will probably be of limited duration as a consequence of normal temporally varying meteorological conditions.

Thomson, D. W.↗

Radar prediction of absolute rain fade distributions for earth-satellite paths and general methods for extrapolation of fade statistics to other locations

The first absolute rain fade distribution method described establishes absolute fade statistics at a given site by means of a sampled radar data base. The second method extrapolates absolute fade statistics from one location to another, given simultaneously measured fade and rain rate statistics at the former. Both methods employ similar conditional fade statistic concepts and long term rain rate distributions. Probability deviations in the 2-19% range, with an 11% average, were obtained upon comparison of measured and predicted levels at given attenuations. The extrapolation of fade distributions to other locations at 28 GHz showed very good agreement with measured data at three sites located in the continental temperate region.

Goldhirsh, J.↗

The experimental cascade curves of EAS at E sub 0 10(17) eV obtained by the method of detection of Cherenkov pulse shape

The individual cascade curves of EAS with E sub 0 10 to the 17th power eV/I to 3/ were studied by detection of EAS Cherenkov light pulses. The scintillators located at the center of the Yakutsk EAS array within a 500-m radius circle were used to select the showers and to determine the main EAS parameters. The individual cascade curves N(t) were obtained using the EAS Cherenkov light pulses satisfying the following requirements: (1) the signal-to-noise ratio fm/delta sub n 15, (2) the EAS axis-detector distance tau sub 350 m, (3) the zenith angle theta 30 deg, (4) the probability for EAS to be detected by scintillators W 0.8. Condition (1) arises from the desire to reduce the amplitude distortion of Cherenkov pulses due to noise and determines the range of EAS sizes, N(t). The resolution times of the Cherenkov pulse shape detectors are tau sub 0 approx. 23 ns which results in distortion of a pulse during the process of the detection. The distortion of pulses due to the finiteness of tau sub 0 value was estimated. It is shown that the rise time of pulse becomes greater as tau sub 0.5/tau sub 0 ratio decreases.

Fomin, Y. A.↗

A generalization of the near-optimum binary coherent state receiver concept

The structure of a maximum a posteriori decoder is derived for binary optical fields processed according to Kennedy's near-optimum scheme, but operating in the presence of random optical phase-error and interfering background fields. An exact expression is found for the error probability, and examples to illustrate decoder performance under various operating conditions of interest are provided.

Vilnrotter, V. A.↗

Mathematical algorithms for approximate reasoning

Most state of the art expert system environments contain a single and often ad hoc strategy for approximate reasoning. Some environments provide facilities to program the approximate reasoning algorithms. However, the next generation of expert systems should have an environment which contain a choice of several mathematical algorithms for approximate reasoning. To meet the need for validatable and verifiable coding, the expert system environment must no longer depend upon ad hoc reasoning techniques but instead must include mathematically rigorous techniques for approximate reasoning. Popular approximate reasoning techniques are reviewed, including: certainty factors, belief measures, Bayesian probabilities, fuzzy logic, and Shafer-Dempster techniques for reasoning. A group of mathematically rigorous algorithms for approximate reasoning are focused on that could form the basis of a next generation expert system environment. These algorithms are based upon the axioms of set theory and probability theory. To separate these algorithms for approximate reasoning various conditions of mutual exclusivity and independence are imposed upon the assertions. Approximate reasoning algorithms presented include: reasoning with statistically independent assertions, reasoning with mutually exclusive assertions, reasoning with assertions that exhibit minimum overlay within the state space, reasoning with assertions that exhibit maximum overlay within the state space (i.e. fuzzy logic), pessimistic reasoning (i.e. worst case analysis), optimistic reasoning (i.e. best case analysis), and reasoning with assertions with absolutely no knowledge of the possible dependency among the assertions. A robust environment for expert system construction should include the two modes of inference: modus ponens and modus tollens. Modus ponens inference is based upon reasoning towards the conclusion in a statement of logical implication, whereas modus tollens inference is based upon reasoning away from the conclusion. These algorithms allow one to reason accurately with uncertain data. The above environment can replicate state-f-the-art expert system environments which provides a continuity between the current expert systems which cannot be validated or verified and future expert systems which should be both validated and verified

Murphy, John H.↗

Diffusion and infrared properties of molecules in ice mantles

Within dense molecular clouds the formation of frozen icy mantles on interstellar dust grains is thought to be the result of various growth conditions. The molecules, which make up the ice mantles are probably completely mixed. To study the physical properties of such ice mixtures the experiments were performed on the evaporation processes and on the spectroscopic properties of CO, CO2, and CH4 in water rich ices. The decrease in concentration of volatile molecules in ice samples deposited at 10 K and subsequently heated is found to occur essentially in two steps. The first one, corresponding to an evaporation of part of the volatile molecules, starts at about 25 K for CO, 32 K for CH4, and 70 K for CO2. During the crystallization of H2O ice at temperatures greater than 120 K a second evaporation occurs leading to the complete disappearance of the volatile molecules in the solid phase. The main astrophysical implications of the diffusion and spectroscopic behaviors are presented. The possible effects of a heating source on the fraction of volatile molecules, such as CO trapped in grain mantles, are discussed.

Schmitt, Bernard↗

PDF turbulence modeling and DNS

The problem of time discontinuity (or jump condition) in the coalescence/dispersion (C/D) mixing model is addressed in probability density function (pdf). A C/D mixing model continuous in time is introduced. With the continuous mixing model, the process of chemical reaction can be fully coupled with mixing. In the case of homogeneous turbulence decay, the new model predicts a pdf very close to a Gaussian distribution, with finite higher moments also close to that of a Gaussian distribution. Results from the continuous mixing model are compared with both experimental data and numerical results from conventional C/D models. The effect of Coriolis forces on compressible homogeneous turbulence is studied using direct numerical simulation (DNS). The numerical method used in this study is an eight order compact difference scheme. Contrary to the conclusions reached by previous DNS studies on incompressible isotropic turbulence, the present results show that the Coriolis force increases the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, and that anisotropy develops as the Coriolis force increases. The Taylor-Proudman theory does apply since the derivatives in the direction of the rotation axis vanishes rapidly. A closer analysis reveals that the dissipation rate of the incompressible component of the turbulent kinetic energy indeed decreases with a higher rotation rate, consistent with incompressible flow simulations (Bardina), while the dissipation rate of the compressible part increases; the net gain is positive. Inertial waves are observed in the simulation results.

Hsu, A. T.↗

The evolution of the lithium abundances of solar-type stars. III - The Pleiades

New measurements of lithium in more than 100 Pleiades F, G, and K dwarfs are reported. Abundances are determined from spectrum synthesis fits to the data as well as from use of new covers of growth from the Li 6708-A feature. It is argued that most Late-F and early-G dwarfs in the Pleiades are consistent with the tight N(Li) vs mass relation seen in the Hyades in the same mass range. Most Li-rich stars have abundances at or near the primordial level for Population I, and none exceed that level by a significant amount. At any given color the stars that rotate fast have the most Li and have the strongest chromospheric activity. Ways in which an apparent spread in N(Li) could arise from an intrinsically tight n(Li)-mass relation are considered, and it is concluded that the spread is probably real and is not an artifact of line formation conditions or inhomogeneous atmospheres on the stars.

Soderblom, David R.↗

Ocean color and atmospheric dimethyl sulfide: On their mesoscale variability

The mesoscale variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and ocean color is explored to determine the feasibility of a predictive relationship. During NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment/Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (GTE/CITE 3), simultaneous shipboard and aircraft studies were carried out in the North Atlantic, followed by aircraft studies in the South Atlantic. Surface concentrations of chlorophyll alpha were measured with an airborne spectroradiometer, the Ocean Data Acquisition System (ODAS), with simultaneous determinations of tropospheric DMS. Shipboard measurements of DMS in air and water as well as in situ chlorophyll alpha were taken in the North Atlantic. No relation was observed between shipboard aquatic DMS and chlorophyll alpha or primary productivity. Higher levels of aqueous DMS were not always reflected by atmospheric DMS, although shipboard and aircraft measurements of atmospheric DMS agreed very well. A significant relationship between atmospheric DMS and ocean color was seen once at low altitudes in both the North and South Atlantic only under clean air conditions. Atmospheric DMS levels during the North Atlantic experiment were probably lowered by the presence of mostly polluted air masses in the study area and were, overall, probably not representative of the in situ sea-to-air flux of DMS. Changes in concentration of aircraft-sensed chlorophyllous pigments were not reflected by atmospheric DMS. If a predictive algorithm is to be found, phytoplankton blooms should probably be the first place to study an ocean color-DMS relationship.

Matrai, Patricia A.↗

Automation of Command and Data Entry in a Glovebox Work Volume: An Evaluation of Data Entry Devices

The present study was designed to examine the human-computer interface for data entry while performing experimental procedures within a glovebox work volume in order to make a recommendation to the Space Station Biological Research Project for a data entry system to be used within the Life Sciences Glovebox. Test subjects entered data using either a manual keypad, similar to a standard computer numerical keypad located within the glovebox work volume, or a voice input system using a speech recognition program with a microphone headset. Numerical input and commands were programmed in an identical manner between the two systems. With both electronic systems, a small trackball was available within the work volume for cursor control. Data, such as sample vial identification numbers, sample tissue weights, and health check parameters of the specimen, were entered directly into procedures that were electronically displayed on a video monitor within the glovebox. A pen and paper system with a 'flip-chart' format for procedure display, similar to that currently in use on the Space Shuttle, was used as a baseline data entry condition. Procedures were performed by a single operator; eight test subjects were used in the study. The electronic systems were tested under both a 'nominal' or 'anomalous' condition. The anomalous condition was introduced into the experimental procedure to increase the probability of finding limitations or problems with human interactions with the electronic systems. Each subject performed five test runs during a test day: two procedures each with voice and keypad, one with and one without anomalies, and one pen and paper procedure. The data collected were both quantitative (times, errors) and qualitative (subjective ratings of the subjects).

Steele, Marianne K.↗

Ditching Investigation of a 1/12-Scale Model of the Douglas F3D-2 Airplane, TED No. NACA DE 381

An investigation of a 1/12- scale dynamically similar model of the Douglas F3D-2 airplane was made in calm water to observe the ditching behavior and to determine the safest procedure for making an emergency water landing. Various conditions of damage were simulated to determine the behavior which probably would occur in a full-scale ditching. The behavior of the model was determined from motion-picture records, time- history acceleration records, and visual observations. It was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at a medium high attitude of about 8 degrees with the landing flaps down 40 degrees. In calm water the airplane will probably make a smooth run of about 550 feet and will have a maximum longitudinal deceleration of about 3g. The fuselage bottom will probably be damaged enough to allow the fuselage to fill with water very rapidly.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗

Effect of Surge Current Testing on Reliability of Solid Tantalum Capacitors

Tantalum capacitors manufactured per military specifications are established reliability components and have less than 0.001% of failures per 1000 hours for grades D or S, thus positioning these parts among electronic components with the highest reliability characteristics. Still, failures of tantalum capacitors do happen and when it occurs it might have catastrophic consequences for the system. To reduce this risk, further development of a screening and qualification system with special attention to the possible deficiencies in the existing procedures is necessary. The purpose of this work is evaluation of the effect of surge current stress testing on reliability of the parts at both steady-state and multiple surge current stress conditions. In order to reveal possible degradation and precipitate more failures, various part types were tested and stressed in the range of voltage and temperature conditions exceeding the specified limits. A model to estimate the probability of post-surge current testing-screening failures and measures to improve the effectiveness of the screening process has been suggested.

Teverovsky, Alexander↗

Ditching Investigation of a 1/18-Scale Model of the North American B-45 Airplane

An investigation of a 1/18-scale dynamically similar model of the North American B-45 airplane was made to observe the ditching behavior and determine the proper landing technique to be used in an emergency water landing. Various conditions of damage were simulated to determine the behavior which probably would occur in a full-scale ditching. The behavior of the model was determined from high-speed motion-picture records, time-history acceleration records, and visual observations. It was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at the maximum nose-high attitude with the landing flaps full down for minimum landing speed. During the ditching, the nose-wheel and bomb-bay doors probably will be torn away and the rear of the fuselage flooded. A violent dive will very likely occur. Longitudinal decelerations of approximately 5g and vertical accelerations of approximately -6g (including gravity) will be experienced near the pilots' compartment. Ditching braces installed in the bomb bay will tend to improve the behavior slightly but will be torn away along with the bomb-bay doors. A hydroflap installed ahead of the nose-wheel doors will eliminate the dive and failure of the nose-wheel doors, and substantially reduce the motions and accelerations.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗