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At least 343 records · Page 19

Bridging Multiscale Processes in Earth System Models with Physics-Guided Hierarchical Machine Learning

Focal Area(s): The focal area of this whitepaper is, “Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection).” The ideas and frameworks described herein are deemed site agnostic. As a use case, this group will initially focus on the coupling between land processes, surface/subsurface hydrological processes, coastal processes, and human activities in the U.S. Gulf states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building Intelligent Cyberinfrastructure to Learn Iteratively from both Observations and Models for Understanding Watershed Dynamics

Focal Area(s): Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI-driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: Watershed processes, such as the fate and transport of sediment, carbon and nutrients across landscapes and their fluxes to water bodies (e.g., streams, rivers and lakes), have important implications for global and regional carbon and nutrient dynamics, biogeochemical functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and soil functions. The magnitude of lateral surface/subsurface transport and fluxes of sediment, carbon and nutrients are key factors controlling the vulnerability of watersheds to climate extremes such as droughts, wildfires, and floods. Recent field observations and other scientific evidence suggest that the magnitudes of lateral transport and fluxes of sediment, carbon and nutrients are governed primarily by the spatial and vertical heterogeneity of landscape and soil properties and by pedogenic processes. However, the current generation of land surface and watershed models do not mechanistically couple the terrestrial and hydrologic systems, nor do they represent sufficiently the spatial and vertical heterogeneity of land surface and subsurface properties. On the other hand, increasing complexity of coupled watershed and land surface models requires more data to parameterize, calibrate and validate. Remote sensing (RS) provides a means to acquire spatial data and characterize their heterogeneity at the watershed scale, overcoming a major limitation associated with conventional point measurements. To improve the representation of land-surface and surface/subsurface process coupling and sub-grid heterogeneity in watershed models, it is essential to build our predictive understanding by learning from both the multi-scale multi-process modeling and diverse multi-scale data while leveraging powerful artificial intelligence (AI) techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Co-Evolving Climate Models under Uncertainty to Improve Predictive Skill

Focal Area: Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models Science Challenge: Advances in modeling of climate and improved observational capabilities have led to great improvements in understanding large-scale historical climate effects. It however remains a challenge to reliably predict the risk of fine-scale regional climate events on human systems even as such risks are on the rise because warmer and wetter climates are more prone to hydrometeorological extremes,

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep Learning for Ensemble Forecasting

Focal Area: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components and the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. Science Challenge: While both climate and weather forecast systems have continued to improve due to substantial efforts to improve computational capabilities, observations, and numerical models, the atmosphere is a chaotic system, and this puts a fundamental limit on our ability to make predictions. Forecasts made by high-resolution models initialized with only slightly different atmospheric states can quickly diverge. Quantifying uncertainty in forecasts is essential to adequately understand them and to make the best-informed policy decisions particularly when it comes to hydrology, extreme weather (including extreme precipitation events), and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Short Term Predictability of Hydrologic Models with Deep Learning

Focal Area: Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: A major challenge exists in the lack of reliable predictive modeling of water-cycle extremes using macro-scale hydrologic models that are driven by atmospheric climate data. This causes a critical knowledge gap in understanding the magnitudes, probabilities, and severity of droughts, rainfall, and flooding. Improved understanding of these extreme events requires more accurate modeling at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This shortcoming is especially apparent when complex couplings between atmospheric quantities and engineered systems emerge, such as during extreme precipitation or drought events and at intersections of atmospheric-land-fluvial-ocean systems. Added complexity around representing operations of engineered infrastructure leads to a limited capability to analyze the temporal and spatial implications of compounding extreme events across inland and coastal regions. This results in profound challenges for water and power systems operators, agriculture production, and regional infrastructure planning. The science challenge can be summarized as How can we use AI/ML to improve short term predictability of extreme water-cycle events and associated risk, especially compounding events and extreme rainfall patterns that result in flooding, to inland and coastal communities under different climate scenarios?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning for Adaptive Model Refinement to Bridge Scales

This whitepaper is responsive to focal area (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components: the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Here we describe scale-aware ML models for adaptive model refinement that allow us to bridge the spatial and/or temporal scales in simulation models and observation data for capturing and predicting extreme water cycles.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Model Hierarchy for Mountainous Hydrological Observatories (MH 2 O)

Focal area: Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection)

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Physics-Informed Deep Learning for Multiscale Water Cycle Prediction

This paper falls under Focal Area #2: Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI-driven model/component/parameterization selection).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Representing the Unrepresented Impact of River Ice on Hydrology, Biogeochemistry, Vegetation, and Geomorphology: A Hybrid Physics-Machine Learning Approach

Focal areas include: Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system composed of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding and Improving Energy Efficiency of Regional Mobility Systems Leveraging System-Level Data

Increased congestion required urban Americans to travel 6.8 billion hours more and purchase 3.1 billion gallons of fuel for a congestion cost of $\$$153 billion, according to the 2019 Urban Mobility Report. How to effectively manage the regional mobility system and improve the energy efficiency presents a big challenge to public agencies. Recent years have witnessed massive multi-jurisdictional multi-modal system-level data from various sources, which provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve the mobility system and its energy efficiency. However, implications of system-level data for mobility and energy efficiency are unclear. Those system-level data sets are siloed, spatially and temporally sparse, biased, not unified, and lacking of insights for system management. Consequently, there is a real need to acquire, fuse, mine and learn from multi-source system-level data to prepare public agencies to deal more effectively with large-scale energy efficiency modeling, management and planning. This project proposes to intensively review inexpensive, replicable and openly-accessible data from multi-modal systems, develop a data-driven system-level modeling framework enabled and validated by data, identify the energy inefficiencies of mobility systems from infrastructure, vehicles, passenger systems, and quantify the benefits of system-level strategies to improve mobility/energy efficiency. In addition, this research develops models to effectively estimate energy consumption and emissions from various types of vehicles on the roadway networks, with high granularity and high fidelity. Traditional models often heavily rely on aggregated infrastructure or vehicle/passenger data, for example, the census survey, land-use, and traffic counts of one or several classes, which may lead to research gaps considering the emerging vehicle technologies. Those models do not contain individual vehicular information. We propose an integrated data-driven method that combines multiple network modeling components, featuring the utilization of state-wide vehicle registration data. The additional vehicle registration data improve the model performance, and produce high-resolution vehicle-specific estimates of emissions and network performance metrics. Two case studies on the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia regional network show that the proposed method can efficiently and effectively estimate the emissions of a large-scale network, and provide valuable information for evaluating common management strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Improving climate model coupling through a complete mesh representation: a case study with E3SM (v1) and MOAB (v5.x)

One of the fundamental factors contributing to the spatiotemporal inaccuracy in climate modeling is the mapping of solution field data between different discretizations and numerical grids used in the coupled component models. The typical climate computational workflow involves evaluation and serialization of the remapping weights during the preprocessing step, which is then consumed by the coupled driver infrastructure during simulation to compute field projections. Tools like Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and TempestRemap offer capability to generate conservative remapping weights, while the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) that is utilized in many production climate models exposes functionality to make use of the operators to solve the coupled problem. However, such multistep processes present several hurdles in terms of the scientific workflow and impede research productivity. In order to overcome these limitations, we present a fully integrated infrastructure based on the Mesh Oriented datABase (MOAB) library, which allows for a complete description of the numerical grids and solution data used in each submodel. Through a scalable advancing-front intersection algorithm, the supermesh of the source and target grids are computed, which is then used to assemble the high-order, conservative, and monotonicity-preserving remapping weights between discretization specifications. The Fortran-compatible interfaces in MOAB are utilized to directly link the submodels in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to enable online remapping strategies in order to simplify the coupled workflow process. We demonstrate the superior computational efficiency of the remapping algorithms in comparison with other state-of-the-science tools and present strong scaling results on large-scale machines for computing remapping weights between the spectral element atmosphere and finite volume discretizations on the polygonal ocean grids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Systems simulations supporting NASA telerobotics

Two simulation and analysis environments have been developed to support telerobotics research at the Langley Research Center. One is a high-fidelity, nonreal-time, interactive model called ROBSIM, which combines user-generated models of workspace environment, robots, and loads into a working system and simulates the interaction among the system components. Models include user-specified actuator, sensor, and control parameters, as well as kinematic and dynamic characteristics. Kinematic, dynamic, and response analyses can be selected, with system configuration, task trajectories, and arm states displayed using computer graphics. The second environment is a real-time, manned Telerobotic Systems Simulation (TRSS) which uses the facilities of the Intelligent Systems Research Laboratory (ISRL). It utilizes a hierarchical structure of functionally distributed computers communicating over both parallel and high-speed serial data paths to enable studies of advanced telerobotic systems. Multiple processes perform motion planning, operator communications, forward and inverse kinematics, control/sensor fusion, and I/O processing while communicating via common memory. This paper describes both ROBSIM and TRSS, including their capability, status, and future plans. Also described is the architecture of ISRL and recent telerobotic system studies in ISRL.

Harrison, F. Wallace, Jr.↗

Forbidden coronal iron line emission in the Puppis A shock front: The effect of inhomogeneities

We have obtained CCD images of the shock front at the eastern rim of Puppis A in (Fe X) lambda 6374 and (Fe XIV) lambda 5303 and have compared the optical data to Einstein HRI soft X-ray data. The observed part of the remnant is complex, containing density irregularities. Optical and X-ray data are consistent in showing a nearly flat gradient of ionization behind the shock. To determine conditions in the shock, scans of surface brightness across it in the optical lines were compared to surface brightnesses predicted by idealized Sedov models. We were unable to match both the red and green line scans by a simple, single-component model, and have ascribed the failure to the presence of the density inhomogeneities. Our result has important implications for the determination of SNR shock front models by means of fitting X-ray data with Sedov models.

Teske, Richard G.↗

Systems simulations supporting NASA telerobotics

Two simulation and analysis environments have been developed to support telerobotics research at the Langley Research Center. One is a high-fidelity, nonreal-time, interactive model called ROBSIM, which combines user-generated models of workspace environment, robots, and loads into a working system and simulates the interaction among the system components. Models include user-specified actuator, sensor, and control parameters, as well as kinematic and dynamic characteristics. Kinematic, dynamic, and response analyses can be selected, with system configuration, task trajectories, and arm states displayed using computer graphics. The second environment is a real-time, manned Telerobotic Systems Simulation (TRSS) which uses the facilities of the Intelligent Systems Research Laboratory (ISRL). It utilizes a hierarchical structure of functionally distributed computers communicating over both parallel and high-speed serial data paths to enable studies of advanced telerobotic systems. Multiple processes perform motion planning, operator communications, forward and inverse kinematics, control/sensor fusion, and I/O processing while communicating via common memory. Both ROBSIM and TRSS, including their capability, status, and future plans are discussed. Also described is the architecture of ISRL and recent telerobotic system studies in ISRL.

Harrison, F. W., Jr.↗

Improvements in Block-Krylov Ritz Vectors and the Boundary Flexibility Method of Component Synthesis

A method of dynamic substructuring is presented which utilizes a set of static Ritz vectors as a replacement for normal eigenvectors in component mode synthesis. This set of Ritz vectors is generated in a recurrence relationship, proposed by Wilson, which has the form of a block-Krylov subspace. The initial seed to the recurrence algorithm is based upon the boundary flexibility vectors of the component. Improvements have been made in the formulation of the initial seed to the Krylov sequence, through the use of block-filtering. A method to shift the Krylov sequence to create Ritz vectors that will represent the dynamic behavior of the component at target frequencies, the target frequency being determined by the applied forcing functions, has been developed. A method to terminate the Krylov sequence has also been developed. Various orthonormalization schemes have been developed and evaluated, including the Cholesky/QR method. Several auxiliary theorems and proofs which illustrate issues in component mode synthesis and loss of orthogonality in the Krylov sequence have also been presented. The resulting methodology is applicable to both fixed and free- interface boundary components, and results in a general component model appropriate for any type of dynamic analysis. The accuracy is found to be comparable to that of component synthesis based upon normal modes, using fewer generalized coordinates. In addition, the block-Krylov recurrence algorithm is a series of static solutions and so requires significantly less computation than solving the normal eigenspace problem. The requirement for less vectors to form the component, coupled with the lower computational expense of calculating these Ritz vectors, combine to create a method more efficient than traditional component mode synthesis.

Carney, Kelly Scott↗

MOEMS Modeling Using the Geometrical Matrix Toolbox

New technologies such as MicroOptoElectro-Mechanical Systems (MOEMS) require new modeling tools. These tools must simultaneously model the optical, electrical, and mechanical domains and the interactions between these domains. To facilitate rapid prototyping of these new technologies an optical toolbox has been developed for modeling MOEMS devices. The toolbox models are constructed using MATLAB's dynamical simulator, Simulink. Modeling toolboxes will allow users to focus their efforts on system design and analysis as opposed to developing component models. This toolbox was developed to facilitate rapid modeling and design of a MOEMS based laser ultrasonic receiver system.

Wilson, William C.↗

The Effect of an Operating Propeller on the Aerodynamic Characteristics of a 1/10-Scale Model of the Lockheed XFV-1 Airplane at High Subsonic Speeds (TED No. NACA DE-377)

An investigation was conducted in the Ames 12-foot pressure wind tunnel to determine the effect of an operating propeller on the aerodynamic characteristics of a l/l9-scale model of the Lockheed XFV-1 airplane, Several full-scale power conditions were simulated at Mach numbers from 0.50 to 0.92; the.Reynolds number was constant at 1,7 million. Lift, longitudinal force, pitch, roll, and yaw characteristics, determined with and without power, are presented for the complete model and for various combinations of model components, Results of an investigation to determine the characteristics of the dual-rotating propeller used on the model are given also,

Sutton, Fred B.↗