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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

First-Principles Studies on Sc 2 RuZ (Z = Si, Ge, Sn) Inverse Heusler Alloys: Structural, Electronic, and Transport Properties

The continuous demand for efficient, nontoxic, and thermally stable materials for room-temperature energy conversion motivates the exploration of novel thermoelectric systems beyond the traditional magnetic Heusler alloys. While full and half-Heusler compounds, especially Co-, Ni-, and Mn-based systems, have demonstrated promising thermoelectric properties, their typically high operating temperatures and magnetic complexities limit their applicability in ambient thermal management. In this context, we investigate whether Sc-based inverse Heusler alloys can offer a viable nonmagnetic alternative with competitive thermoelectric performance. In this work, we perform a systematic first-principles study of the inverse Heusler compounds Sc 2 RuZ (Z = Si, Ge, Sn), focusing on their structural, electronic, mechanical, and thermodynamic-thermoelectric properties. Density Functional Theory (DFT) was employed to compute optimized lattice structures and band dispersion, while dynamical stability was assessed via phonon calculations. Thermoelectric transport coefficients, including Seebeck coefficient, electrical conductivity, and thermal conductivity, were estimated using the semiclassical Boltzmann transport theory within the constant relaxation time approximation. Our results show that all Sc 2 RuZ compounds are thermodynamically stable semiconductors with indirect band gaps of 0.12–0.16 eV and exhibit high elastic moduli, especially Sc 2 RuSn, which demonstrates superior stiffness and incompressibility. Importantly, all compounds display promising room-temperature thermoelectric characteristics, including high Seebeck coefficients and power factors. These findings reveal that Sc 2 RuZ alloys represent a rare class of stable, nonmagnetic inverse Heusler semiconductors with intrinsic thermoelectric potential at room temperature, unlike many existing Heusler systems optimized for spintronics or high-temperature operation. This work expands the known design space for Heusler-based thermoelectrics and offers a theoretical basis for experimental realization of efficient, low-temperature, nonmagnetic thermoelectric materials.

alloys↗
DOE OSTI2025

Best of both worlds: Enforcing detailed balance in machine learning models of transition rates

The slow microstructural evolution of materials often plays a key role in determining material properties. When the unit steps of the evolution process are slow, direct simulation approaches such as molecular dynamics become prohibitive and Kinetic Monte-Carlo (kMC) algorithms, where the state-to-state evolution of the system is represented in terms of a continuous-time Markov chain, are instead frequently relied upon to efficiently predict long-time evolution. The accuracy of kMC simulations however relies on the complete and accurate knowledge of reaction pathways and corresponding kinetics. This requirement becomes extremely stringent in complex systems such as concentrated alloys where the astronomical number of local atomic configurations makes the a priori tabulation of all possible transitions impractical. Machine learning models of transition kinetics have been used to mitigate this problem by enabling the efficient on-the-fly prediction of kinetic parameters. While conventional KMC methods based on transition state theory naturally yield reversible dynamics that exactly obey the detailed balance criterion, providing strong guarantees on the properties of the stationary distribution, many recently-proposed ML-based approaches to barrier predictions provide no such guarantees. In this study, we derive conditions under which physics-informed ML architectures exactly enforce the detailed balance condition by construction, even when relying on non-extensive descriptions of states in terms of local environments around mobile defects. In conclusion, using the diffusion of a vacancy in a concentrated alloy as an example, we show that such ML architectures also exhibit superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy, demonstrating that the imposition of physical constraints can facilitate the accurate learning of barriers at no increase in computational cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Research in Quantum Field Theory, Cosmology, and String Theory

This project covered research in theoretical high energy physics at Brandeis University by PI Albion Lawrence and Co-PIs Matthew Headrick and Howard Schnitzer. The work of Albion Lawrence covered quantum field theoretic models of cosmic inflation and of quintessence-type dark energy, consistent with constraints on quantum gravity; the dynamics of open quantum systems, with an eye towards applications to holography; and the application of quantum information theory – particularly measures of quantum entanglement – to quantum field theories and quantum gravity. The work of Matthew Headrick covered the intersection of quantum information theory and quantum gravity, with a focus on the holographic encoding of quantum information theoretic concepts such as entanglement and computational complexity in field theory. Headrick also achieved significant technical results in closed string field theory. The work of Howard Schnitzer covered the computation of quantum information theoretic quantities in quantum field theories.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling complex causal processes that affect sustainability requires more integration between empirical and modeling approaches

Scientists seek to understand the causal processes that generate sustainability problems and determine effective solutions. Yet, causal inquiry in nature–society systems is hampered by conceptual and methodological challenges that arise from nature–society interdependencies and the complex dynamics they create. Here, we demonstrate how sustainability scientists can address these challenges and make more robust causal claims through better integration between empirical analyses and process- or agent-based modeling. To illustrate how these different epistemological traditions can be integrated, we present four studies of air pollution regulation, natural resource management, and the spread of COVID-19. The studies show how integration can improve empirical estimates of causal effects, inform future research designs and data collection, enhance understanding of the complex dynamics that underlie observed temporal patterns, and elucidate causal mechanisms and the contexts in which they operate. These advances in causal understanding can help sustainability scientists develop better theories of phenomena where social and ecological processes are dynamically intertwined and prior causal knowledge and data are limited. The improved causal understanding also enhances governance by helping scientists and practitioners choose among potential interventions, decide when and how the timing of an intervention matters, and anticipate unexpected outcomes. Methodological integration, however, requires skills and efforts of all involved to learn how members of the respective other tradition think and analyze nature–society systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Semiclassical theory and the Koopman-van Hove equation *

Abstract The phase space Koopman-van Hove (KvH) equation can be derived from the asymptotic semiclassical analysis of partial differential equations. Semiclassical theory yields the Hamilton–Jacobi equation for the complex phase factor and the transport equation for the amplitude. These two equations can be combined to form a nonlinear semiclassical version of the KvH equation in configuration space. There is a natural injection of configuration space solutions into phase space and a natural projection of phase space solutions onto configuration space. Hence, every solution of the configuration space KvH equation satisfies both the semiclassical phase space KvH equation and the Hamilton–Jacobi constraint. For configuration space solutions, this constraint resolves the paradox that there are two different conserved densities in phase space. For integrable systems, the KvH spectrum is the Cartesian product of a classical and a semiclassical spectrum. If the classical spectrum is eliminated, then, with the correct choice of Jeffreys–Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (JWKB) matching conditions, the semiclassical spectrum satisfies the Einstein–Brillouin–Keller quantization conditions which include the correction due to the Maslov index. However, semiclassical analysis uses different choices for boundary conditions, continuity requirements, and the domain of definition. For example, use of the complex JWKB method allows for the treatment of tunneling through the complexification of phase space. Finally, although KvH wavefunctions include the possibility of interference effects, interference is not observable when all observables are approximated as local operators on phase space. Observing interference effects requires consideration of nonlocal operations, e.g. through higher orders in the asymptotic theory.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structured interactions drive abrupt transitions in the spatial organization of microbial communities

Bacteria possess diverse mechanisms to regulate their motility in response to environmental and physiological signals, enabling them to navigate complex habitats and adapt their behavior. Some of these mechanisms are species specific and enable cells to modulate their movement based on the ecological identity of neighboring species. Here, we introduce a model in which bacteria interact via local signals that either enhance or suppress the motility of neighboring cells depending on species type. Through large-scale simulations and a coarse-grained stochastic model, we demonstrate the emergence of a sharp transition driven by nucleation processes: increasing the density of motility-suppressing interactions drives the system from a fully mixed, motile phase to a state characterized by large, stationary bacterial clusters. Remarkably, in systems with a large number of interacting species, this transition can be triggered solely by altering the structure of the motility-regulation interaction matrix while maintaining species and interaction densities constant. In particular, we find that heterogeneous and modular interactions promote the transition more readily than homogeneous random ones. These findings add a dimension to the theory of motility-induced phase separation and contribute to the ongoing effort to understand microbial interactions, suggesting that structured, nonrandom ones may be key to reproducing commonly observed spatial patterns in microbial communities.

bacterial communities↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spin Splitting Energy of Transition Metals: A New, More Affordable Wave Function Benchmark Method and Its Use to Test Density Functional Theory

Accurately predicting the spin splitting energy of chemical species is important for understanding their reactivity and magnetic properties, but it is very challenging, especially for molecules containing transition metals. One impediment to progress is the scarcity of accurate benchmark data. Here we report a set of calculations designed to yield reliable benchmarks for simple transition-metal complexes that can be used to test density functional methods that are affordable for large systems of more practical interest. Various wave function methods are tested against experiment for Fe 2+ , Fe 3+ , and Co 3+ , including CASSCF, CASPT2, CASPT3, MRCISD, MRCISD+Q, ACPF, AQCC, CCSD(T), and CASPT2/CCSD(T) and also a new method called CASPT2.5, which is performed by taking the average of the CASPT2 and CASPT3 energies. Furthermore, we find that MRCISD+Q, ACPF, and AQCC require smaller active spaces for good accuracy than are required by CASPT2 and CASPT3, and this aspect may be important for calculations on larger molecules; here we find that CASPT2.5 extrapolated to a complete basis set is the most suitable method—in terms of computational cost and in terms of accuracy on monatomic systems—and therefore we chose this method for molecular benchmarks. Then Kohn–Sham density functional calculations with 60 exchange-correlation functionals are tested for FeF 2 , FeCl 2 , and CoF 2 . We find that MN15-L, M06-SX, and revM06 have very good agreement with CASPT2.5 benchmarks in terms of both the spin splitting energy and the optimized geometry for each spin state. In addition, we recommend def2-TZVP as the most suitable basis set to perform density functional calculations for molecular spin splitting energies; extra polarization functions in the basis set do not help to increase the accuracy of the spin splitting energy in KS calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Symmetry-breaking polymorphous descriptions for correlated materials without interelectronic U

Correlated materials with open-shell d- and f-ions having degenerate band edge states show a rich variety of interesting properties ranging from metal-insulator transition to unconventional superconductivity. The textbook view for the electronic structure of these materials is that mean-field approaches are inappropriate, as the interelectronic interaction U is required to open a band gap between the occupied and unoccupied degenerate states while retaining symmetry. We show that the latter scenario often defining what Mott insulators are, is in fact not needed for the 3d binary oxides MnO, FeO, CoO, and NiO. The mean-field-like band theory can indeed lift such degeneracies in the binaries when nontrivial unit cell representations (polymorphous networks) are allowed to break symmetries, in conjunction with a recently developed non-empirical exchange and correlation density-functional without an on-site interelectronic interaction U. We explain how density-functional theory (DFT) in the polymorphous representation achieves band gap opening in correlated materials through a separate mechanism to the Mott-Hubbard approach. Here, we show the method predicts magnetic moments and gaps for the four binary monoxides in both the antiferromagnetic and paramagnetic phases, offering an effective alternative to symmetry-conserving approaches for studying a range of functionalities in open d- and f-shell complex materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding initial zeolite oligomerization steps with first principles calculations

Zeolites are porous aluminosilicate materials that find various applications in the chemical industry in separations, catalysis, ion exchange, and so forth. However, despite their widespread use, the reaction mechanisms occurring during zeolite growth are still unclear. In the study, we use density functional theory calculations to gain insights into the thermodynamics of oligomerization, which constitute the initial steps of zeolite growth. By taking into consideration solvent and temperature effects, our results demonstrate that the growth of aluminosilicate systems is significantly more exothermic than their pure silicate counterparts. Under pH neutral conditions, water prefers to dissociate on the early-growth-stage aluminosilicate complexes rather than desorb, thus generating potential Brønsted acid sites on the oligomers. Additionally, (alumino)silicate growth pathways are evaluated in the presence of Na + cation, as well as the Ca 2+ cation for the pure silicate pathway. The presence of cations increases the exothermicity of growth, with Ca 2+ exhibiting the most energetically favorable growth environment for the silicate systems. Importantly, we demonstrate through reaction extent analysis that the presence of cations modulates the speciation of the formed oligomers, with Na + favoring linear species in addition to the generally preferred cyclic ones. Overall, this work provides a fundamental understanding of the thermodynamics of complex reaction paths that occur during early stages of zeolite growth and suggests that the initial growth steps can have significant impact on the final zeolite structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coexistence of Interacting Charge Density Waves in a Layered Semiconductor

Coexisting orders are key features of strongly correlated materials and underlie many intriguing phenomena from unconventional superconductivity to topological orders. Here, we report the coexistence of two interacting charge-density-wave (CDW) orders in EuTe 4 , a layered crystal that has drawn considerable attention owing to its anomalous thermal hysteresis and a semiconducting CDW state despite the absence of perfect FS nesting. By accessing unoccupied conduction bands with time- and angle-resolved photoemission measurements, we find that mono- and bi-layers of Te in the unit cell host different CDWs that are associated with distinct energy gaps. The two gaps display dichotomous evolutions following photoexcitation, where the larger bilayer CDW gap exhibits less renormalization and faster recovery. Surprisingly, the CDW in the Te monolayer displays an additional momentum-dependent gap renormalization that cannot be captured by density-functional theory calculations. This phenomenon is attributed to interlayer interactions between the two CDW orders, which account for the semiconducting nature of the equilibrium state. Finally, our findings not only offer microscopic insights into the correlated ground state of EuTe 4 but also provide a general non-equilibrium approach to understand coexisting, layer-dependent orders in a complex system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Co-Design of Charge Transport Superhighways to Connect Catalytic Sites in Soft Photoelectrochemical Systems

Efficient photon-to-electron-to-molecule conversion requires multi-length scale control over charge transport pathways, where electronic charges are delivered to catalytic sites under high mass transport flux. A fundamental question is how can we co-design charge transport pathways to promote efficient charge transfer to/from catalytic sites in complex three-dimensional architectures? Soft conducting polymer systems offer exceptional promise to provide three-dimensional charge transport networks, where electrolyte (ion and solvent) can interdiffuse to promote long-lived charge carriers and the molecular nature allows for strategic synthetic design of catalytic sites. Herein we combine theoretical and experimental approaches to investigate the earliest stages of photoelectrochemical deposition of near-surface catalytic sites (Pt) on soft bulk heterojunction polymeric semiconductors composed of a prototype donor (PTB7-Th) and a prototype acceptor (N2200) as a model system towards better understanding molecular catalyst-polymer site interactions. We focus initially on photoelectrochemical deposition of low Pt loadings, nanoparticle sizes (formed by progressive nucleation) below 20 nm, for both density functional theory (DFT) modeling studies and for spectroscopic characterization using surface-sensitive X-ray and UV-photoemission (XPS/UPS). DFT modeling of “n-type” N2200 slabs reveal for the first time that sulfur atoms in the thiophene units serve as the lowest-energy adsorption sites for single Pt atoms, while larger Pt clusters engage more complexly with both thiophene and naphthalene diimide (NDI) core sites. Changes in chemical composition observed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) support the DFT predictions, and the angle-resolved measurements reveal that Pt nucleation initiates at subsurface sites which appear to be localized active domains that promote charge transport/transfer and enable vertical growth toward the surface. These results suggest that light-activated Pt nanoparticle deposition decorates energetically distinct sites, where photoactivity is dictated by the local energetics of those sites, and the fact that they represent the termini of charge transport “super-highways” – a small percentage of the total volume of the donor/acceptor polymeric active layer which carries most of the photocurrent generated during both Pt deposition and photoelectrochemical HER. We posit that these initial studies provide a foundational strategy for design of catalytic sites in the near surface regions of complex polymeric materials and advancing soft semiconductor-based photoelectrochemical systems. Achieving a nanometer-scale understanding of catalyst deposition and the impact of local composition and energetics on that placement, should ultimately provide the design guidelines (co-design) for a broad array of catalysts at sites that optimize that efficiency and maximize platform durability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exact solution of two simple non-equilibrium electron-phonon and electron-electron coupled systems: The atomic limit of the Holstein-Hubbard model and the generalized Hatsugai-Komoto model

One of the challenges in many-body physics is determining the effects of phonons on strongly correlated electrons. The difficulty arises from strong correlations at differing energy scales—for band metals, Migdal-Eliashberg theory accurately determines electron-phonon coupling effects due to the absence of vertex corrections, but strongly correlated electrons require a more complex description, and the standard Migdal-Eliashberg approach does not necessarily apply. In this work, we solve for the atomic limit Green's function of the Holstein-Hubbard model with both time-dependent electron-electron and electron-phonon couplings. Then, we examine the photoemission spectra of this model in and out of equilibrium. Next, we use similar methods to exactly solve an extended version of the Hatsugai-Komoto model and examine its behavior in and out of equilibrium. These calculations lead us to propose using the first moment of the photoemission spectra to signal non-equilibrium changes in electron-electron and electron-phonon couplings.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Revealing the Defect‐Driven Ferroelectric Mechanisms of Aluminum Nitride

Wurtzite III-nitride compounds are CMOS-compatible with widespread industrial interest to exercise ferroelectricity, despite their polar structure being highly resistant to polarization reversal. Here, we induce and tune ferroelectric properties in w-AlN via direct-write ion-beam processing, using nanoscale patterned defect engineering as a post-growth alternative to conventional cation substitution. Nanometric piezoresponse spectroscopy of the focused He + beam patterned defect concentrations in ferroelectric Al 0.92 B 0.08 N measures a localized 10x enhancement in effective piezoresponse and 40% reduction in switching barrier. The irradiation-induced point defects convert piezoelectric AlN into a ferroelectric system with site-saturated nucleation and raise the dielectric susceptibility, switched polarization, and effective piezoelectric coefficient. Enhanced defect-lattice interactions in AlN increase carrier conduction and phonon scattering loss but preserve long-range crystallinity. Here, based on atomistic analysis of nudged elastic band density functional theory calculations and reactive force field simulations, both nitrogen vacancies and defect complexes disrupt bond ordering, facilitating a line-by-line low-barrier switching of pristine AlN.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Correspondence between open bosonic systems and stochastic differential equations

Bosonic mean-field theories can approximate the dynamics of systems of $n$ bosons provided that $n \gg 1$. Here, we show that there can also be an exact correspondence at finite $n$ when the bosonic system is generalized to include interactions with the environment and the mean-field theory is replaced by a stochastic differential equation. When the $n \to \infty$ limit is taken, the stochastic terms in this differential equation vanish, and a mean-field theory is recovered. Besides providing insight into the differences between the behavior of finite quantum systems and their classical limits given by $n \to \infty$, the developed mathematics can provide a basis for quantum algorithms that solve some stochastic nonlinear differential equations. We discuss conditions on the efficiency of these quantum algorithms, with a focus on the possibility for the complexity to be polynomial in the log of the stochastic system size. A particular system with the form of a stochastic discrete nonlinear Schrödinger equation is analyzed in more detail.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Charge Transport in Solvated Donor–Acceptor Functionalized Peptoids: Molecular Dynamics and Rate Theory

Scalable solar-energy conversion requires photoactive materials that combine the efficiency of natural photosynthetic systems with the stability and processability needed for practical applications. Achieving reliable charge transport in soft, self-assembled organic materials remains challenging, as structural fluctuations and environmental effects strongly influence charge-transfer (CT) rates. Here, we present a broadly applicable computational framework for evaluating CT rates in the condensed phase, combining Fermi’s golden rule rate theory with inputs from all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and first-principles electronic-structure calculations. The approach does not rely on system-specific parametrization and is applicable to a wide range of soft and disordered materials. We demonstrate the applicability and usefulness of the framework on redox-active peptoids functionalized with iron–porphyrin (Fe–P) complexes, a bioinspired platform with programmable donor–acceptor units and tunable three-dimensional organization. The calculated CT rates exhibit strong sensitivity to molecular conformation, with variations spanning several orders of magnitude. This dependence is shown to arise from the pronounced variation in diabatic electronic coupling with the relative orientations and separations of the Fe–P complexes across the conformational ensemble. The framework provides a consistent route for connecting atomistic structure to CT kinetics in the condensed phase and enables analysis of structure–rate relations in organic semiconducting systems.

Charge transfer↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient exact exchange using Wannier functions and other related developments in planewave-pseudopotential implementation of RT-TDDFT

The plane-wave pseudopotential (PW-PP) formalism is widely used for the first-principles electronic structure calculation of extended periodic systems. The PW-PP approach has also been adapted for real-time time-dependent density functional theory (RT-TDDFT) to investigate time-dependent electronic dynamical phenomena. In this work, we detail recent advances in the PW-PP formalism for RT-TDDFT, particularly how maximally localized Wannier functions (MLWFs) are used to accelerate simulations using the exact exchange. We also discuss several related developments, including an anti-Hermitian correction for the time-dependent MLWFs (TD-MLWFs) when a time-dependent electric field is applied, the refinement procedure for TD-MLWFs, comparison of the velocity and length gauge approaches for applying an electric field, and elimination of long-range electrostatic interaction, as well as usage of a complex absorbing potential for modeling isolated systems when using the PW-PP formalism.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting molecular dipole moments by combining atomic partial charges and atomic dipoles

The molecular dipole moment ( μ ) is a central quantity in chemistry. It is essential in predicting infrared and sum-frequency generation spectra as well as induction and long-range electrostatic interactions. Furthermore, it can be extracted directly—via the ground state electron density—from high-level quantum mechanical calculations, making it an ideal target for machine learning (ML). Here, we choose to represent this quantity with a physically inspired ML model that captures two distinct physical effects: local atomic polarization is captured within the symmetry-adapted Gaussian process regression framework which assigns a (vector) dipole moment to each atom, while the movement of charge across the entire molecule is captured by assigning a partial (scalar) charge to each atom. The resulting “MuML” models are fitted together to reproduce molecular μ computed using high-level coupled-cluster theory and density functional theory (DFT) on the QM7b dataset, achieving more accurate results due to the physics-based combination of these complementary terms. The combined model shows excellent transferability when applied to a showcase dataset of larger and more complex molecules, approaching the accuracy of DFT at a small fraction of the computational cost. We also demonstrate that the uncertainty in the predictions can be estimated reliably using a calibrated committee model. The ultimate performance of the models—and the optimal weighting of their combination—depends, however, on the details of the system at hand, with the scalar model being clearly superior when describing large molecules whose dipole is almost entirely generated by charge separation. These observations point to the importance of simultaneously accounting for the local and non-local effects that contribute to μ ; furthermore, they define a challenging task to benchmark future models, particularly those aimed at the description of condensed phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity

Abstract Climate change is projected to worsen ozone pollution over many populated regions, with larger impacts at higher concentrations. More intense and frequent ozone episodes risk setbacks to human health and environmental policy achievements. However, assessing these changes is complicated by uncertain climate sensitivity, closely related to climate model response, and internal variability in simulations projecting climate's influence on air quality. Here, leveraging a global modeling framework that one‐way couples a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and an atmospheric chemistry model, we investigate the role of climate sensitivity in climate‐induced changes to high ozone pollution episodes in the United States using multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, representations of climate sensitivity, and initial condition members. We bias correct and evaluate historical model simulations, identifying modeled and observed O 3 episodes using extreme value theory, and extend the approach to projections of mid‐ and end‐century climate impacts. Results show that the influence of climate sensitivity can be as significant as that of greenhouse gas emissions scenario absent precursor emissions changes. Climate change is projected to increase the magnitude of the highest annually occurring O 3 concentrations by over 2.3 ppb on average across the U.S. at mid‐century under a high climate sensitivity and moderate emissions scenario, but the increase is limited to less than 0.3 ppb under lower climate sensitivity. Further, we show that areas in the U.S. currently meeting air quality standards risk being pushed into non‐compliance due to a climate‐induced increase in frequency of high ozone days.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗