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At least 343 records · Page 19

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NASA NTRS2009

A State-Space Approach to Optimal Level-Crossing Prediction for Linear Gaussian Processes

In many complex engineered systems, the ability to give an alarm prior to impending critical events is of great importance. These critical events may have varying degrees of severity, and in fact they may occur during normal system operation. In this article, we investigate approximations to theoretically optimal methods of designing alarm systems for the prediction of level-crossings by a zero-mean stationary linear dynamic system driven by Gaussian noise. An optimal alarm system is designed to elicit the fewest false alarms for a fixed detection probability. This work introduces the use of Kalman filtering in tandem with the optimal level-crossing problem. It is shown that there is a negligible loss in overall accuracy when using approximations to the theoretically optimal predictor, at the advantage of greatly reduced computational complexity. I

Martin, Rodney Alexander↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating time in quantum chaotic systems and black holes

We characterize new universal features of the dynamics of chaotic quantum many-body systems, by considering a hypothetical task of "time estimation". Most macroscopic observables in a chaotic system equilibrate to nearly constant late-time values. Intuitively, it should become increasingly difficult to estimate the precise value of time by making measurements on the state. We use a quantity called the Fisher information from quantum metrology to quantify the minimum uncertainty in estimating time. Due to unitarity, the uncertainty in the time estimate does not grow with time if we have access to optimal measurements on the full system. Restricting the measurements to act on a small subsystem or to have low computational complexity leads to results expected from equilibration, where the time uncertainty becomes large at late times. With optimal measurements on a subsystem larger than half of the system, we regain the ability to estimate the time very precisely, even at late times. Hawking's calculation for the reduced density matrix of the black hole radiation in semiclassical gravity contradicts our general predictions for unitary quantum chaotic systems. Hawking's state always has a large uncertainty for attempts to estimate the time using the radiation, whereas our general results imply that the uncertainty should become small after the Page time. This gives a new version of the black hole information loss paradox in terms of the time estimation task. By restricting to simple measurements on the radiation, the time uncertainty becomes large. This indicates from a new perspective that the observations of computationally bounded agents are consistent with the semiclassical effective description of gravity.

Black holes↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Framework for Data Center

This chapter highlights the critical need for advanced modeling of data centers due to their rapidly increasing energy consumption and impact on grid reliability. Driven by the demand for AI applications, data centers are projected to consume a significant portion of US energy by 2028, putting stress on an already challenged power grid. The chapter emphasizes the importance of "fast" time-scale models to understand the dynamic interactions between data centers and the grid, especially given the rapid power fluctuations of AI workloads. It outlines a modeling framework that includes both offline and real-time EMT domain simulations, detailing the necessary representations for various components like utility interfaces, transformers, IT loads, UPS, cooling loads, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), generators, protection systems, and higher-level control systems. While standard simulation tools like PSCAD offer basic models, custom development is often required to accurately capture the unique and fast-changing behaviors of modern data centers. The chapter also discusses key metrics and test cases for validating these models, focusing on transient load responses, protection relay coordination, and demand flexibility. Finally, it addresses the challenges of modeling large-scale data centers, such as computational complexity and the trade-off between model fidelity and practicality, suggesting hybrid modeling approaches as a solution. The overarching goal is to create a robust framework that helps assess data center impacts on grid stability, identify vulnerabilities, and inform the development of standards for reliable integration of these large loads into the bulk power system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1993

Phase holograms in PMMA with proximity effect correction

Complex computer generated phase holograms (CGPH's) have been fabricated in PMMA by partial e-beam exposure and subsequent partial development. The CGPH was encoded as a sequence of phase delay pixels and written by the JEOL JBX-5D2 E-beam lithography system, a different dose being assigned to each value of phase delay. Following carefully controlled partial development, the pattern appeared rendered in relief in the PMMA, which then acts as the phase-delay medium. The exposure dose was in the range 20-200 micro-C/sq cm, and very aggressive development in pure acetone led to low contrast. This enabled etch depth control to better than plus or minus lambda(sub vis)/60. That result was obtained by exposing isolated 50 micron square patches and measuring resist removal over the central area where the proximity effect dose was uniform and related only to the local exposure. For complex CGPH's with pixel size of the order of the e-beam proximity effect radius, the patterns must be corrected for the extra exposure caused by electrons scattered back up out of the substrate. This has been accomplished by deconvolving the two-dimensional dose deposition function with the desired dose pattern. The deposition function, which plays much the same role as an instrument response function, was carefully measured under the exact conditions used to expose the samples. The devices fabricated were designed with 16 equal phase steps per retardation cycle, were up to 1 cm square, and consisted of up to 100 million 0.3-2.0 micron square pixels. Data files were up to 500 MB long and exposure times ranged to tens of hours. A Fresnel phase lens was fabricated that had diffraction limited optical performance with better than 85 percent efficiency.

Maker, Paul D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative datasets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student-t process regression. We apply Student-t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via coloring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics, and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gas-Liquid Flow Modeling for Renewable Fuels Production

Aerobic/anaerobic and gas fermentation pathways have emerged as promising new technologies for the generation of renewable fuels/chemicals from biomass derived sugars, and mixtures of greenhouse/energy rich gas streams (CO2/CH4/H2/CO) via microbial action. Example pathways include sugars-to-ethanol conversion, biomethanation (CO2/H2 to CH4), biogas upgrading, CO fermentation and wet-waste conversion. Gas and liquid phase transport, mass-transfer, and mixing physics at large length scales can significantly affect microbial conversion rates, particularly when the microbial reaction requires a narrow set of conditions. These phenomena are difficult to study in small-scale bench-top reactors that are typically well-mixed. Predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based simulations can therefore aid in the scale-up, design and optimization of these reactors. This work presents multiphase Euler-Euler CFD simulations of at-scale (~500 m3) bioreactors. Our mathematical model treats the gas and liquid as interpenetrating phases. This approach reduces the computational complexity of tracking individual gas bubbles that are several orders of magnitude smaller than reactor dimensions. We solve the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) multiphase equations that account for phase and chemical species transport, interphase mass and momentum transfer and uses a phenomenological model for gas uptake by microbes. We use a customized solver derived from open-source CFD toolbox, OpenFOAM [1], to perform these simulations, which has been validated against small-scale reactors in our previous work [2]. There is currently a knowledge-gap regarding bubble-size distributions when using gas mixtures with vastly different properties, which can have a significant impact overall mass-transfer. For example, hydrogen bubbles are more buoyant compared to other relatively heavier gases (CO2/CH4/CO), resulting in a large distribution of residence times and bubble sizes. This work therefore develops a deeper understanding of bubble dynamics and interphase mass transfer in such heterogenous gas mixtures through well-resolved computational models. We use a population balance model (PBM) for bubble-size-distribution modeling that is validated against small-scale experiments in our solver with an uncertainty quantification study for bubble coalescence and break-up model parameters. Results pertaining to multiple simulations of gas-fermentation reactors are presented where gas mixtures with varying compositions of CO2/CH4/CO/H2 are imposed at the sparger boundaries. The spatio-temporal variations in bubble-size distribution and mass transfer coefficient are analyzed for varying superficial velocities and gas-compositions for varying sizes of bubble-column and airlift reactors. This work will also examine the performance of different reactor designs, viz. bubble column reactor, airlift reactor with an internal draft tube, and a stirred-tank reactor with Rushton impellers. Reactor mass-transfer coefficient, gas hold-up, and dissolved gas distribution are critically analyzed among reactors, and sensitivity studies pertaining to gas flow rates and reactor geometry will be presented. [1] Weller, H., Tabor, G., Jasak, H. and Fureby, C., A tensorial approach to computational continuum mechanics using object-oriented techniques, Computers in physics, 12, 6, 620--631, 1998. [2] Rahimi, M., Sitaraman, H., Humbird, D. and Stickel, J., Computational fluid dynamics study of full-scale aerobic bioreactors: Evaluation of gas-liquid mass transfer, oxygen uptake, and dynamic oxygen distribution, Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 139: 283-295.

BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Risk-averse optimization for resilience enhancement of complex engineering systems under uncertainties

With the growth of complexity and extent, large scale interconnected network systems, e.g., transportation networks or infrastructure networks, become more vulnerable to external disturbances. Hence, managing potential disruptive events during the design, operating, and recovery phase of an engineered system and therefore improving the system’s resilience is an important yet challenging task. Here, to ensure system resilience after the occurrence of failure events, this study proposes a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) based restoration framework using heterogeneous dispatchable agents. The scenario-based stochastic optimization (SO) technique is adopted to deal with the inherent uncertainties imposed on the recovery process from nature. Moreover, different from conventional SO using deterministic equivalent formulations, the CVaR risk measure is implemented for this study because of the temporal sparsity of the decision making in applications such as the recovery from extreme events. The resulting restoration framework involves a large-scale MILP problem and thus an adequate decomposition technique i.e. modified Lagrangian dual decomposition, is also employed to achieve tractable computational complexity. Case study results based on the IEEE 37-bus test feeder demonstrate the benefits of using the proposed framework for resilience improvement as well as the advantages of adopting SO formulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

ToPolyAgent: AI agents for coarse-grained bead-spring topological polymer simulations

We introduce ToPolyAgent, a multi-agent AI framework for performing coarse-grained molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of topological polymers through natural language instructions. By integrating large language models (LLMs) with domain-specific computational tools, ToPolyAgent supports both interactive and autonomous simulation workflows across diverse polymer architectures, including linear, ring, brush, and star polymers, as well as dendrimers. The system consists of four LLM-powered agents: a Config Agent for generating initial polymer–solvent configurations, a Simulation Agent for executing LAMMPS-based MD simulations and conformational analyses, a Report Agent for compiling markdown reports, and a Workflow Agent for streamlined autonomous operations. Interactive mode incorporates user feedback loops for iterative refinements, while autonomous mode enables end-to-end task execution from detailed prompts. We demonstrate ToPolyAgent's versatility through case studies involving diverse polymer architectures under varying solvent conditions, thermostats, and simulation lengths. Furthermore, we highlight its potential as a research assistant by directing it to investigate the effect of interaction parameters on the linear polymer conformation, and the influence of grafting density on the persistence length of the brush polymer. By coupling natural language interfaces with rigorous simulation tools, ToPolyAgent lowers barriers to complex computational workflows and advances AI-driven materials discovery in polymer science. It lays the foundation for autonomous and extensible multi-agent scientific research ecosystems.

Ding, Lijie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of the generator coordinate method with machine-learning techniques for nuclear spectra and neutrinoless double- β decay: Ridge regression for nuclei with axial deformation

The generator coordinate method (GCM) is an important tool of choice for modeling large-amplitude collective motion in atomic nuclei. The computational complexity of the GCM increases rapidly with the number of collective coordinates. It imposes a strong restriction on the applicability of the method. In this work, we propose a subspace-reduction algorithm that employs optimal statistical ML models as surrogates for exact quantum-number projection calculations for norm and Hamiltonian kernels. The model space of the original GCM is reduced to a subspace relevant for nuclear low energy spectra and the NME of ground state to ground state 0νββ decay based on the orthogonality condition (OC) and the energy-transition-orthogonality procedure (ENTROP), respectively. For simplicity, the polynomial ridge regression (RR) algorithm is used to learn the norm and Hamiltonian kernels of axially deformed configurations. The efficiency and accuracy of this algorithm are illustrated for 76 Ge and 76 Se by comparing results obtained using the optimal RR models to direct GCM calculations. The low-lying energy spectra of 76 Ge and 76 Se, as well as the 0νββ-decay NME between their ground states, are computed. Furthermore, the results show that the performance of the GCM+OC/ENTROP+RR is more robust than that of the GCM+RR alone, and the former can reproduce the results of the original GCM calculation accurately with a significantly reduced computational cost.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

NASA NTRS2024

EdgeCortix SAKURA-I Machine-Learning, PCIe Accelerator SEE Heavy Ion Test Report

To enable autonomy in space, machine-learning and computer vision applications become invaluable for sensor processing. However, these algorithms are computationally complex and unfeasible for many embedded central processing units (CPUs) and usually require external coprocessors, such as graphics processing units (GPUs) or accelerators specific to the application, including application specific integrated circuits (ASICs). In power-constrained systems, GPUs tend to consume more power than is acceptable (>40W), so lower-power accelerators have shown promise to provide the performance needed under spacecraft constraints. For radiation engineers, developing methodologies that can properly test CPUs, GPUs, and accelerators, and enable comparisons between them remains a necessary complication to solve as the devices become more complex. The methodology in this test aims to be a start in developing a baseline single-event effect (SEE) test for client-device machine learning accelerators. This category of devices do not host their own operating system. This testing campaign is a continuation of a previous 200 MeV proton test performed in January 2024. This report covers two heavy ion tests of the SAKURA-I card: one in April 2024, and one in June 2024. Additional data was needed after the April test due to ion-range issues experienced at higher linear-energy transfers (LETs). These range issues are described in more detail in Section 8. This experiment characterizes SEEs and data error susceptibility of the EdgeCortix SAKURA-I machine-learning accelerator under heavy ions. The device was monitored for single event upsets (SEUs) and single event functional interrupts (SEFIs) at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s 88-inch cyclotron. The SAKURA-I board accelerates machine-learning inference applications on a host computer through a PCIex16 connection. For the purposes of devising an end to end automated analysis workflow for this experiment, the YOLO-V5 and SSD300 objection-detection models, and the ResNet-50, EfficientNet, and MobileNetV2 image classification models were used as a representative suite of analytical machine-learning models.

Seth S Roffe↗

DOE OSTI2020

sMF-BO-2CoGP: A sequential multi-fidelity constrained Bayesian optimization framework for design applications

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an effective surrogate-based method that has been widely used to optimize simulation-based applications. While the traditional Bayesian optimization approach only applies to single-fidelity models, many realistic applications provide multiple levels of fidelity with various levels of computational complexity and predictive capability. In this work, we propose a multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization method for design applications with both known and unknown constraints. The proposed framework, called sMF-BO-2CoGP, is built on a multi-level CoKriging method to predict the objective function. An external binary classifier, which we approximate using a separate CoKriging model, is used to distinguish between feasible and infeasible regions. Finally, the sMF-BO-2CoGP method is demonstrated using a series of analytical examples and a flip-chip application for design optimization to minimize the deformation due to warping under thermal loading conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Connected three-body terms in single-reference unitary many-body theories: Iterative and perturbative approximations

This work introduces various approaches to include connected three-body terms in unitary many-body theories, focusing on the driven similarity renormalization group (DSRG). Starting from the least approximate method—the linearized DSRG truncated to one-, two-, and three-body operators [LDSRG(3)]—we develop several approximate LDSRG(3) models with reduced computational cost. Through a perturbative analysis, we motivate a family of iterative LDSRG(3)-n and -n' (n = 1, 2, 3, 4) methods that contain a subset of the LDSRG(3) diagrams. Among these variants, the LDSRG(3)-2 scheme has the same computational complexity of coupled cluster theory with singles, doubles, and triples (CCSDT), but it outperforms CCSDT in the accuracy of the predicted correlation energies. We also propose and implement two perturbative triples corrections based on the linearized DSRG truncated to one- and two-body operators augmented with recursive semi-quadratic commutators [qDSRG(2)]. Overall, the resulting qDSRG(2)+(T) approach matches the accuracy of the “gold-standard” coupled cluster theory with singles, doubles, and perturbative triples model on the energetics of twenty-eight closed-shell atoms and small molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Testing convolutional neural network based deep learning systems: a statistical metamorphic approach

Machine learning technology spans many areas and today plays a significant role in addressing a wide range of problems in critical domains,i.e., healthcare, autonomous driving, finance, manufacturing, cybersecurity,etc. Metamorphic testing (MT) is considered a simple but very powerful approach in testing such computationally complex systems for which either an oracle is not available or is available but difficult to apply. Conventional metamorphic testing techniques have certain limitations in verifying deep learning-based models (i.e., convolutional neural networks (CNNs)) that have a stochastic nature (because of randomly initializing the network weights) in their training. In this article, we attempt to address this problem by using a statistical metamorphic testing (SMT) technique that does not require software testers to worry about fixing the random seeds (to get deterministic results) to verify the metamorphic relations (MRs). We propose seven MRs combined with different statistical methods to statistically verify whether the program under test adheres to the relation(s) specified in the MR(s). We further use mutation testing techniques to show the usefulness of the proposed approach in the healthcare space and test two CNN-based deep learning models (used for pneumonia detection among patients). The empirical results show that our proposed approach uncovers 85.71% of the implementation faults in the classifiers under test (CUT). Furthermore, we also propose an MRs minimization algorithm for the CUT, thus saving computational costs and organizational testing resources.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sylvester-preconditioned adaptive-rank implicit time integrators for advection-diffusion equations with variable coefficients

Here, we consider the adaptive-rank integration of multi-dimensional time-dependent advection-diffusion partial differential equations (PDEs) with variable coefficients. We employ a standard finite-difference method for spatial discretization coupled with high-order diagonally implicit Runge-Kutta temporal schemes. The discrete equation is a generalized Sylvester equation (GSE), which we solve with a projection-based adaptive-rank algorithm structured around two key strategies: (i) constructing dimension-wise subspaces using a novel atypical extended Krylov strategy, and (ii) efficiently solving the basis coefficient matrix with a preconditioned GMRES solver. The low-rank decomposition is performed in 2D using SVD and with high-order SVD (HOSVD) in 3D to represent the tensor in a compressed Tucker format. For d-dimensional problems (here, d = 2 or 3), the computational complexity and memory storage of the approach are found numerically to scale as and $\mathscr{O}(Nr^2) + \mathscr{O} (r^{d+1})$ and $\mathscr{O}(Nr) + \mathscr{O} (r^{d})$, respectively, with the one-dimensional resolution and the maximal rank during the Krylov iteration (which we find to be largely independent of on our numerical examples). We present numerical examples that illustrate the advertised properties of the algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1999

Computer Modeling of Sand Transport on Mars Using a Compart-Mentalized Fluids Algorithm (CFA)

It has been postulated that aeolian transport on Mars may be significantly different from that on Earth. From laboratory experiments simulating martian grain transport [2], it has been observed that (saltating) grains striking the bed can cause hundreds of secondary reptation trajectories when impact occurs at speeds postulated for Mars. Some of the ballistically induced trajectories "die ouf' and effectively join the ranks on the creep population that is merely nudged along by impact. Many of the induced reptation trajectories, however, are sufficiently high for the grains to become part of the saltation load (it is irrelevant to the boundary layer how a grain attained its initial lift force). When these grains, in turn, strike the surface, they too are capable of inducing more reptating grains. This cascading effect has been discussed in connection with terrestrial aeolian transport in an attempt to dispel the notion that sand motion is divisible only into creep and saltation loads. On Earth, only a few grains are splashed by impact. On Mars, it may be hundreds. We developed a computer model to address this phenomenon because there are some important ramifications: First, this ratio may mean that martian aeolian transport is dominated by reptation flux rather than saltation. On Earth, the flux would be a roughly balanced mixture between reptation/creep and saltation. On Venus, there would be no transport other than by saltation. In other words, an understanding of planetary aeolian processes may not be necessarily understood by extrapolating from the "Earth case", with only gravity and atmospheric density/viscosity being considered as variables. Second, the reptation flux on Mars may be self sustaining, so that little input is required by the wind once transport has been initiated. The number of grains saturating the boundary layer near the bed may mean that average grain speed on Mars might conceivably be less than that on Earth. This would say much for models of sand comminution on Mars. A multiple-grain transport model using just the equations of grain motion describing lift and drag is impossible to develop owing to stochastic effects --the very effects we wish to model. Also, unless we were to employ supercomputing techniques and extremely complex computer codes that could deal with millions of grains simultaneously, it would also be difficult to model grain transport if we attempted to consider every grain in motion. No existing computer models were found that satisfactorily used the equations of motion to arrive at transport flux numbers for the different populations of saltation and reptation. Modeling all the grains in a transport system was an intractable problem within our resources, and thus we developed what we believe to be a new modeling approach to simulating grain transport. The CFA deals with grain populations, but considers them to belong to various compartmentalized fluid units in the boundary layer. In this way, the model circumvents the multigrain problem by dealing primarily with the consequences of grain transport --momentum transfer between air and grains, which is the physical essence of a dynamic grain-fluid mixture. We thus chose to model the aeolian transport process as a superposition of fluids. These fluids include the air as well as particle populations of various properties. The prime property distinguishing these fluids is upward and downward grain motion. In a normal saltation trajectory, a grain's downwind velocity increases with time, so a rising grain will have a smaller downwind velocity than a failing grain. Because of this disparity in rising and falling grain proper-ties, it seemed appropriate to track these as two separate grain populations within the same physical space. The air itself can be considered a separate fluid superimposed within and interacting with the various grain-cloud "fluids". Additional informaiton is contained in the original.

Marshall, J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reverse-mode differentiation in arbitrary tensor network format: with application to supervised learning.

This paper describes an efficient reverse-mode differentiation algorithm for contraction operations of tensor networks that may have arbitrary and unconventional network topologies. The approach leverages the tensor contraction tree of Evenbly and Pfeifer (2014), which provides an instruction set for the contraction sequence of a network. We show that this tree can be efficiently leveraged for differentiation of a full tensor network contraction using a recursive scheme that exploits (1) the bilinear property of contraction and (2) the property that trees have single path from root to leaves. While differentiation of tensor-tensor contraction is already possible in most automatic differentiation packages, we show that exploiting these two additional properties in the specific context of contraction sequences can improve efficiency. Following a description of the algorithm and computational complexity analysis, we investigate its utility for gradient-based supervised learning for low-rank function recovery and for fitting real-world unstructured datasets. We demonstrate improved performance over alternating least-squares optimization approaches and the capability to handle heterogeneous and arbitrary tensor network formats. When compared to alternating minimization algorithms, we find that the gradient-based approach requires a smaller oversampling ratio (number of samples compared to number model parameters) for recovery. This increased efficiency extends to fitting unstructured data of varying dimensionality and when employing a variety of tensor network formats. Here, we show improved learning using the hierarchical Tucker method over the tensor-train in high-dimensional settings on a number of benchmark problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Efficient reconstruction and validation of heterogeneous microstructures for energy applications

The digital reconstruction of microstructures is necessary for simulations in fields ranging from geology to electrochemistry, but the state-of-the-art digital reconstruction techniques often compromise between resolution and field of view. It is challenging to retain detailed microstructure information in large-scale reconstructions. Here, this study investigates different aspects of the Yeong-Torquato algorithm based on correlation functions to make it more efficient. We achieve this goal by reducing the computational complexity of the chord-length distribution function and the two-point correlation function, applying the random sphere-packing method as the initial condition, and restricting potential voxel swaps to interfaces. In addition, a novel superposition parallel scheme is introduced to aid in searching for potential voxel swaps. The algorithm proposed is validated by comparing the pore-size distributions of reconstructed 3D custom battery electrodes from a sample dataset obtained from transmission X-ray microscopy. From a sample image with 200 x 200 pixels, the code can reconstruct a 300 x 300 x 300 structure in under 22 h and reconstruct a 400 x 400 x 400 structure in 43 h with eight cores.

42 ENGINEERING↗