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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Global Importance of Secondary Ice Production

Measured ice crystal number concentrations are often orders of magnitude higher than the number concentrations of ice nucleating particles, indicating the existence of secondary ice production (SIP) in clouds. Here, we present the first study to examine the global importance of SIP through the droplet shattering during freezing of rain, ice-ice collision fragmentation, and rime splintering, using a global climate model. Our results show that SIP happens quite uniformly in the two hemispheres and dominates the ice formation in the moderately cold clouds with temperatures warmer than –15°C. SIP decreases the global annual average liquid water path by –14.6 g m –2 (–22%), increases the ice water path by 8.7 g m –2 (23%), improving the model agreement with observations. SIP changes the global annual average shortwave, longwave, and net cloud forcing by 2.1, –1.0, and 1.1 W m –2 , respectively, highlighting the importance of SIP on cloud properties on the global scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Moisture Sources of Arctic Atmospheric Rivers During the Recent Historical Period

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), filaments of intense atmospheric moisture transport, play a significant role in delivering moisture poleward into the Arctic and triggering weather extremes. Although previous studies have focused on large‐scale circulations driving these events, this study investigates ARs through attributing their moisture sources using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with moisture‐tagging capability. Examining ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic separately revealed distinct contributions from remote versus local, and ocean versus land, moisture sources. Unlike non‐AR events, Arctic ARs primarily draw moisture from their respective ocean basins in lower‐latitude regions during the cold season, and shift to land sources in the warm season. Cold‐season ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors source 73.2% and 85.3% of their moisture from their respective ocean basins at lower latitudes, however warm‐season contributions decrease to 41.3% and 29.4%. In contrast, mid‐ and high‐latitude continents combined contribute 40.1% and 51.3% in the warm season. Trajectory clustering analysis shows that AR moisture sources depend on both their genesis regions and transport pathways. In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced a moistening trend in both the cold and warm seasons. Our results suggest that local and remote sources equally drive the observed cold‐season moistening, whereas remote sources predominantly drive the warm‐season moistening. A better understanding of Arctic AR moisture sources under current climate conditions provides valuable insights into their potential future changes amid the projected heterogeneous northern hemispheric warming.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global plant trait relationships extend to the climatic extremes of the tundra biome

The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific relationships are confounded by trait variation within species. We test whether trait relationships extend to the cold extremes of life on Earth using the largest database of tundra plant traits yet compiled. We show that tundra plants demonstrate remarkably similar resource economic traits, but not size traits, compared to global distributions, and exhibit the same two dimensions of trait variation. Three quarters of trait variation occurs among species, mirroring global estimates of interspecific trait variation. Plant trait relationships are thus generalizable to the edge of global trait-space, informing prediction of plant community change in a warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of organized convective storms to model grid spacing in current and future climates

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are complexes of thunderstorms that become organized and cover hundreds of kilometres over several hours. MCSs are prolific rain producers in the tropics and mid-latitudes and are the major cause of warm-season flooding. Traditionally, climate models have difficulties in simulating MCSs partly due to the misrepresentation of complex process interactions that operate across a large range of scales. Significant improvements in simulating MCSs have been found in kilometre-scale models that explicitly simulate deep convection. However, these models operate in the grey zone of turbulent motion and have known deficiencies in simulating small-scale processes (e.g. entrainment, vertical mass transport). Here, we perform mid-latitude idealized ensemble MCS simulations under current and future climate conditions in three atmospheric regimes: hydrostatic (12 km horizontal grid spacing; Δx), non-hydrostatic (Δx = 4, 2 and 1 km) and large eddy scale (Δx = 500 m and 250 m). Our results show a dramatic improvement in simulating MCS precipitation, movement, cold pools, and cloud properties when transitioning from 12 km to 4 km Δx. Decreasing Δx beyond 4 km results in modest improvements except for up- and downdraft sizes, average vertical mass fluxes, and cloud top height and temperature, which continue to change. Most important for climate modelling is that Δx = 4 km simulations reliably capture most MCS climate change signals compared to those of the Δx = 250 m runs. Significantly different climate change signals are found in Δx = 12 km runs that overestimate extreme precipitation changes by up to 100%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reversal of carbonate-silicate cation exchange in cold slabs in Earth’s lower mantle

The stable forms of carbon in Earth’s deep interior control storage and fluxes of carbon through the planet over geologic time, impacting the surface climate as well as carrying records of geologic processes in the form of diamond inclusions. However, current estimates of the distribution of carbon in Earth’s mantle are uncertain, due in part to limited understanding of the fate of carbonates through subduction, the main mechanism that transports carbon from Earth’s surface to its interior. Oxidized carbon carried by subduction has been found to reside in MgCO 3 throughout much of the mantle. Experiments in this study demonstrate that at deep mantle conditions MgCO 3 reacts with silicates to form CaCO 3 . In combination with previous work indicating that CaCO 3 is more stable than MgCO 3 under reducing conditions of Earth’s lowermost mantle, these observations allow us to predict that the signature of surface carbon reaching Earth’s lowermost mantle may include CaCO 3 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lithium-Ion Battery Testing Capable of Simulating “Ultralow” Lunar Temperatures

The first-ever lithium-ion battery cycler capable of testing the coin and pouch cells under ultralow (≤40 °C) temperatures down to -175 °C to simulate extreme climates found in the lunar and space missions, high-altitude air vehicles, polar regions of Earth, and military expeditionary missions is enthusiastically reported. The extremely cold temperatures are achieved through a tailored extreme low-temperature system (ELTS) with liquid nitrogen flow and the ability to reach temperatures between -175 and 25 °C, using 1 kΩ and 1 MΩ resistors at varying currents of 1–4 mA and 1–4 μA, respectively, is validated. Employing the ELTS, Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 (LTO)||Li cells with 1 m lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide in cyclopentyl methyl ether as an electrolyte developed in this research group are charged and discharged at room temperature (cycling rate C/5), -20 (C/10), -40 (C/40), and -60 °C (C/50), which exhibited discharge capacities of 159.04, 119.12, 101.79, and 33.06 mAh g -1 , respectively. Moreover, the LTO||Li cell produced a reversible capacity of 7.12 mAh g -1 tested at -100 °C for the first time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

E3SM‐Arctic: Regionally Refined Coupled Model for Advanced Understanding of Arctic Systems Interactions

Earth system models are essential tools for climate projections, but coarse resolutions limit regional accuracy, especially in the Arctic. Regionally refined meshes (RRMs) enhance resolution in key areas while maintaining computational efficiency. This paper provides an overview of the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2.1 with an Arctic RRM, hereafter referred to as E3SMv2.1-Arctic, for the atmosphere (25 km), land (25 km), and ocean/ice (10 km) components. We evaluate the atmospheric component and its interactions with land, ocean, and cryosphere by comparing the RRM (E3SM2.1-Arctic) historical simulations (1950–2014) with the uniform low-resolution (LR) counterpart, reanalysis products, and observational data sets. The RRM generally reduces biases in the LR model, improving simulations of Arctic large-scale mean fields, such as precipitation, atmospheric circulation, clouds, atmospheric river frequency, and sea ice thickness. However, it introduces a seasonally dependent surface air temperature bias, reducing the LR cold bias in summer but enhancing the LR warm bias in winter, which contributes to the underestimated winter sea ice area and volume. Radiative feedback analysis shows similar climate feedback strengths in both model configurations, with the RRM exhibiting a more positive surface albedo feedback and contributing to a stronger surface warming than LR. These findings underscore the importance of high-resolution modeling for advancing our understanding of Arctic climate changes and their broader global impacts, although some persistent biases appear to be independent of model resolution at 10–100 km scales.

Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink

Climate change has been partially mitigated by an increasing net land carbon sink in the terrestrial biosphere; understanding the processes that drive this sink is thus essential for protecting, managing and projecting this important ecosystem service. In this Review, we examine evidence for an enhanced land carbon sink and attribute the observed response to drivers and processes. This sink has doubled from 1.2 ± 0.5 PgC yr -1 in the 1960s to 3.1 ± 0.6 PgC yr -1 in the 2010s. This trend results largely from carbon dioxide fertilization increasing photosynthesis (driving an increase in the annual land carbon sink of >2 PgC globally since 1900), mainly in tropical forest regions, and elevated temperatures reducing cold limitation, mainly at higher latitudes. Continued long-term land carbon sequestration is possible through the end of this century under multiple emissions scenarios, especially if nature-based climate solutions and appropriate ecosystem management are used. In conclusion, a new generation of globally distributed field experiments is needed to improve understanding of future carbon sink potential by measuring belowground carbon release, the response to carbon dioxide enrichment, and long-term shifts in carbon allocation and turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model for the Initiation of Summer-time Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Central United States

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) account for more than 50% of summertime precipitation over the central United States and have a significant impact on local weather and hydrologic cycle. It is hypothesized that the inadequate treatment of MCSs is responsible for the long-standing warm and dry bias over the central United States in coarse-resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations. In particular, a better understanding of MCS initiation is still lacking. Here a single-column Lagrangian parcel model is first developed to simulate the basic features of a rising parcel. This simple model demonstrates the collective effects of boundary layer moistening and dynamical lifting in triggering convective initiation and reproduces successfully its early afternoon peak with surface equivalent potential temperature as a controlling factor. It also predicts that convection is harder to trigger in the future climate under global warming, consistent with the results from convection-permitting regional climate simulations. Then, a multicolumn model that includes an array of single-column models aligned in the east–west direction and incorporates idealized cold pool interaction mechanisms is developed. The multicolumn model captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature in MCS genesis from initially scattered convection that is organized into a mesoscale cluster in a few hours. It also highlights the crucial role of lifting effects due to cold pool collision and spreading, subsidence effect, and gust front propagation speed in controlling the final size of mesoscale clusters and cold pool regions. This simple model should be useful for understanding fundamental mechanisms of MCS initiation and providing guidance for improving MCS simulations in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), have the potential to minimize some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, as well as associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) wherein SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high-emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels; however, it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming–cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain and fewer very intense events than currently occur. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses, could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic–Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6

The climate system and its spatio-temporal changes are strongly affected by modes of long-term internal variability, like the Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). As they alternate between warm and cold phases, the interplay between PDV and AMV varies over decadal to multidecadal timescales. Here, we use a causal discovery method to derive fingerprints in the Atlantic–Pacific interactions and to investigate their phase-dependent changes. Dependent on the phases of PDV and AMV, different regimes with characteristic causal fingerprints are identified in reanalyses in a first step. In a second step, a regime-oriented causal model evaluation is performed to evaluate the ability of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in representing the observed changing interactions between PDV, AMV and their extra-tropical teleconnections. The causal graphs obtained from reanalyses detect a direct opposite-sign response from AMV to PDV when analyzing the complete 1900–2014 period and during several defined regimes within that period, for example, when AMV is going through its negative (cold) phase. Reanalyses also demonstrate a same-sign response from PDV to AMV during the cold phase of PDV. Historical CMIP6 simulations exhibit varying skill in simulating the observed causal patterns. Generally, large-ensemble (LE) simulations showed better network similarity when PDV and AMV were out of phase compared to other regimes. Also, the two largest ensembles (in terms of number of members) were found to contain realizations with similar causal fingerprints to observations. For most regimes, these same models showed higher network similarity when compared to each other. This work shows how causal discovery on LEs complements the available diagnostics and statistical metrics of climate variability to provide a powerful tool for climate model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information

Abstract The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact‐driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compound Drought and Heatwaves at a Global Scale: The Role of Natural Climate Variability-Associated Synoptic Patterns and Land-Surface Energy Budget Anomalies

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered much attention in recent studies. However, thus far, the identification of such events is oversimplified, and their association with natural climate variability is not fully explored. Here, we derive anomalies in the weekly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) and daily maximum temperatures to identify CDHW events from 1982 to 2016 over 26 climate regions across the globe. Using a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we analyze yearly occurrences of seasonal CDHW events and their association with the warm and cold phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO exhibits robust association with CDHW events over the Southern Hemisphere during the austral summer and fall, while PDO influences their occurrences over the Western North America in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, which is supported by the composites of anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and surface energy budget. However, NAO association with CDHW events is relatively weak. The CDHW occurrence over other regions is driven by a combination of these large-scale natural forcing. Our analyses also highlight that the cooccurrence of weekly to submonthly scale anomalies in the observed temperature and precipitation may not be always aligned between the observations and the reanalysis. Therefore, caution must be exercised while explaining such observed anomalies on the basis of reanalysis-based circulations and surface energy budget. Lastly, our analyses provide a new insight towards concurrent extremes and should help foster research efforts in this area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate

Observations and model simulations show enhanced warming in the Arctic under increasing greenhouse gases, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA), that is likely caused by sea-ice loss. AA reduces meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation, thus mid-latitude weather and climate changes have been attributed to AA, often on the basis of regression analysis and atmospheric simulations. However, other modelling studies show only a weak link. This inconsistency may result from deficiencies in separating the effects of AA from those of natural variability or background warming. In this work, using coupled model simulations with and without AA, we show that cold-season precipitation, snowfall and circulation changes over northern mid-latitudes come mostly from background warming. AA and sea-ice loss increase precipitation and snowfall above ~60° N and reduce meridional temperature gradients above ~45° N in the lower–mid troposphere. However, minimal impact on the mean climate is seen below ~60° N, with weak reduction in zonal wind over 50°–70° N and 150–700 hPa, mainly over the North Atlantic and northern central Asia. These results suggest that the climatic impacts of AA are probably small outside the high latitudes, thus caution is needed in attributing mid-latitude changes to AA and sea-ice loss on the basis of statistical analyses that cannot distinguish the impact of AA from other correlated changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating snow cover from high-resolution satellite imagery by thresholding blue wavelengths

We report the extent and duration of snow cover, a critical component of the hydrologic cycle and the global climate system, is expected to shift dramatically under climate change. Therefore, developing high-resolution assessments of snow cover change is crucial for estimating the impact of changing snow cover on watershed and ecosystems processes in cold regions. Remote sensing tools provide a powerful method for mapping snow-covered area (SCA) across a landscape. The most common method for estimating SCA utilizes the normalized difference snow index (NDSI), which relies on spectral measurements in the shortwave-infrared wavelengths (SWIR). NDSI can effectively estimate catchment- to regional-scale SCA, but it cannot be used to assess fine-scale SCA because of current limitations on the spatial resolution of satellite-derived SWIR measurements. Here, we map SCA using a threshold of blue wavelengths and high-resolution satellite imagery. The thresholding method, which we call the Blue Snow Threshold algorithm (BST), has previously been used with digital camera imagery. We refine and automate the algorithm for use with cloud-free high-resolution satellite imagery and find that the BST can be used to assess fine-scale SCA. For validation, we compared BST-derived estimates of SCA to a) airborne lidar surveys, b) Landsat fractional SCA, and c) snow disappearance dates from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations. When compared to airborne lidar surveys of SCA, the BST predicted SCA had a range of F-scores between 0.81 and 0.94 in four study areas in California and Colorado. We also found general agreement between SCA and snow disappearance at multiple SNOTEL sites across the western United States. Given the relatively recent availability of high-resolution satellite imagery with spectral measurements in the visible wavelengths but lacking in SWIR, the BST offers a reliable and easy-to-apply tool for examining fine-scale snow-related processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smart Ventilation Controls for Occupancy and Auxiliary Fan Use Across U.S. Climates

Smart Ventilation has been developed as a way to reduce the energy associated with ventilation by changing when ventilation happens and how much ventilation occurs at any given time. In high performance buildings with low envelope and appliance related loads, ventilation is becoming a bigger part of the total building energy use and needs to be addressed if performance targets are to be met. This work explores the development and performance of smart ventilation controls based on occupancy and auxiliary fan operation that provide annual dwelling unit ventilation equivalence to ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2016. A prototype high performance home compliant with U.S. DOE Building America Zero Energy Ready program requirements was simulated using the REGCAP tool with and without smart controls across 15 U.S. DOE climate zones. Balanced and unbalanced IAQ fans were independently simulated, and all smart controlled fans had airflows double the reference 62.2-2016 airflow. Three idealized occupancy patterns were examined: 1st shift (a typical daily work/school absence), an extended 1st shift with more time spent out of the home evenings and weekends and 3rd shift (night work). The Occupancy controller turns the IAQ fan off during unoccupied periods, and it resumes ventilation upon their return. While unoccupied, contaminants are allowed to accumulate in the space, because occupants are not exposed to these contaminants. When occupants return home, they are exposed to these higher contaminant concentrations, and the controller increases the ventilation rate sufficiently to ensure equivalence with a continuous IAQ fan. Accounting for pollutant emissions that occur during unoccupied periods (as required by ASHRAE 62.2-2016), sharply distinguishes our occupancy controls from past Demand Controlled Ventilation systems. This new accounting method results in equivalent contaminant exposure, as well as lower reductions in average ventilation rates and lower energy savings. Smart controls were demonstrated that saved HVAC energy (i.e., avoided heating/cooling load, as well as fan energy)—averaging between 6 and 46% of ventilation-related energy use depending on the control strategy and occupancy pattern assumptions. The greatest savings were in the combined Auxiliary Fan + Occupancy control. Energy savings increased with climate heating demand and longer unoccupied time periods. The 3rd shift occupancy pattern had better performance, due to the thermal benefit of reducing the ventilation rate during the cold nighttime hours. This same effect provided a cooling energy benefit in hotter locations for the 1st shift. Overall, savings from occupancy-based smart controls were low, because of the recovery period required after occupants return home, during which the airflow is double the 62.2 reference. This recovery is required to maintain equivalence with the ASHRAE standard. Occupancy-based control performance was improved when combined with sensing auxiliary fans and when providing a pre-occupancy flush out of one- or two-hours. Performance was similarly improved if the ASHRAE Standard were to recognize that pollutant emissions are lower during unoccupied periods, iii allowing a lower target ventilation rate during unoccupied periods (not currently in the standard) (see Full vs. Half AEQ in this report). Finally, over-sized unbalanced fans that are cycled on-and-off by a smart controller (or timer) were found to substantially increase annual average air exchange and energy use relative to a continuous unbalanced fan due to the effects of superposition with natural infiltration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observed Increase in Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Sea Surface Cooling Near the U.S. Southeast Coast

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) induce substantial upper‐ocean mixing and upwelling, leading to sea surface cooling. In this study, we explore changes in TC‐induced cold wakes along the United States (U.S.) Southeast and Gulf Coasts during 1982–2020. Our study shows a significant increase in TC‐induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of about 0.20°C near the U.S. Southeast Coast over this period. However, for the U.S. Gulf Coast, trends in TC‐induced SST cooling are insignificant. Analysis of the large‐scale oceanic environments indicate that the increasing TC‐induced cold wakes near the Southeast coast have been predominantly caused by the cooling of subsurface waters in that region. This upper‐ocean change is attributed to the enhancement of surface pressure gradient across land‐sea boundary and the associated increase in alongshore winds over there. Further analysis with climate models reveals the important role of anthropogenic forcings in driving these changes in the atmospheric circulation response along the U.S. Southeast Coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Responses of soil organic carbon to climate extremes under warming across global biomes

The impact of more extreme climate conditions under global warming on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics remains unquantified. Here, in this study, we estimate the response of SOC to climate extreme shifts under 1.5 °C warming by combining a space-for-time substitution approach and global SOC measurements (0–30 cm soil). Most extremes (22 out of 33 assessed extreme types) exacerbate SOC loss under warming globally, but their effects vary among ecosystems. Only decreasing duration of cold spells exerts consistent positive effects, and increasing extreme wet days exerts negative effects in all ecosystems. Temperate grasslands and croplands negatively respond to most extremes, while positive responses are dominant in temperate and boreal forests and deserts. In tundra, 21 extremes show neutral effects, but 11 extremes show negative effects with stronger magnitude than in other ecosystems. Our results reveal distinct, biome-specific effects of climate extremes on SOC dynamics, promoting more reliable SOC projection under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗