Results for “climate prediction” — Page 19

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2025

Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet

Despite an urgent demand for reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions to guide disaster preparedness, our current climate models show limited S2S prediction skill, particularly for precipitation, due to an inadequate understanding of the key processes that drive regional S2S variability. Here we demonstrate that the leading subseasonal variability mode of precipitation over the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) region is not only closely tied to the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), but also linked to precipitation and temperature extremes worldwide, influenced by a circumglobal Rossby wave-train along the subtropical westerly jet. Despite a close phase-lock relationship between the MJO and subseasonal EAWM precipitation, our findings indicate that the MJO itself may only play a minor role in the subseasonal EAWM variability. Given its significant impact on the S2S variability of global weather extremes, we call for coordinated community efforts to enhance the understanding and prediction of the circumglobal Rossby wave-train.

Atmospheric science↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) (Field Campaign Report)

The Arctic is rapidly changing, and these changes have substantial societal relevance. First, arctic change is a leading sign of global change, as the warming observed in the Arctic is 2-3 times faster than observed across the rest of the globe. This so-called arctic amplification is due to numerous feedbacks, including those linked to the declining sea ice. Broad arctic changes are also hypothesized to be related to shifts in large-scale circulation patterns that may have implications for mid-latitude weather and ocean circulation. Arctic change is further affecting the oceans through acidification that threatens food supplies. Declining sea ice also opens the Arctic for new resource development, shipping routes, tourism, and other commercial activities. Lastly, the changing Arctic is a hotbed for geopolitical challenges as nations vie for influence and control of this resource-rich and newly accessible region. Clearly the Arctic and its changes are playing a huge role in our Earth both from a geophysical and socio-political standpoint. To navigate, manage, and respond to the challenges associated with arctic change requires a vastly improved understanding of the coupled arctic system, and the drivers and implications of these changes. It is essential to better understand the physical basis for why the arctic sea ice is declining, the associated feedbacks that work to amplify or modulate this decline, and the myriad ways that the Earth system is responding. As a result of these changes and uncertainties, there are increasing societal needs for improved model predictive skill in the Arctic, to address pressing gaps in global climate prediction, to advance forecast skills for regional and hemispheric weather and sea ice, and to ensure robust ecosystem models that realistically link physical and biological systems. To fulfill these core needs requires new, sophisticated, and cross-cutting observations within the rapidly changing arctic ice pack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The COMBLE campaign: a study of marine boundary-layer clouds in Arctic cold-air outbreaks

One of the most intense air mass transformations on Earth happens when cold air flows from frozen surfaces to much warmer open water in cold-air outbreaks (CAOs), a process captured beautifully in satellite imagery. Despite the ubiquity of the CAO cloud regime over high-latitude oceans, we have a rather poor understanding of its properties, its role in energy and water cycles, and its treatment in weather and climate models. The Cold-air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) was conducted to better understand this regime and its representation in models. COMBLE aimed to examine the relations between surface fluxes, boundary-layer structure, aerosol, cloud and precipitation properties, and mesoscale circulations in marine CAOs. Processes affecting these properties largely fall in a range of scales where boundary-layer processes, convection, and precipitation are tightly coupled, which makes accurate representation of the CAO cloud regime in numerical weather prediction and global climate models most challenging. COMBLE deployed an Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility at a coastal site in northern Scandinavia (69°N), with additional instruments on Bear Island (75°N), from December 2019 to May 2020. CAO conditions were experienced 19% (21%) of the time at the main site (on Bear Island). A comprehensive suite of continuous in situ and remote sensing observations of atmospheric conditions, clouds, precipitation, and aerosol were collected. Because of the clouds’ well-defined origin, their shallow depth, and the broad range of observed temperature and aerosol concentrations, the COMBLE dataset provides a powerful modeling test bed for improving the representation of mixed-phase cloud processes in large-eddy simulations and large-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and performance evaluation of active insulation systems using solid-state thermal switches

Traditional building envelopes have passive insulation systems that cannot respond to dynamic changes in the environment. An Active Insulation System (AIS) consists of Active Insulation Materials (AIMs) that dynamically vary the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Several researchers have evaluated the impact of AIS on building thermal and energy performance by using simulation tools. Up to 70% savings in annual heating and cooling energy and significant reductions in peak demand have been predicted for some climates with wall systems employing AIS. However, materials and assembly development still need a cost-effective product that achieves the required performance. Here, in this study, we present the process of developing an AIS that we will install in a test hut for its performance evaluation. Minimum performance criteria of the AIS system are developed based on R-low/R-high ratio, required time and efficiency to switch states, and cost estimates. The following steps during this study are creating the concept to meet the requirements, predicting the performance via simulations, developing the experimental setup for bench-scale testing, and finally, constructing a full-scale wall assembly and monitoring the performance when exposed to environmental chamber tests. The selected approach uses off-the-shelf products to create an AIS that can switch R-value between 0.98 ft 2 ·°F·h/BTU (0.173 m 2 ·K/W) and 5.81 ft 2 ·°F·h/BTU (1.02 m 2 ·K/W) and have a switching time of less than one minute between R-high and R-low.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Future climate change in the Agulhas system and its associated impact on South African rainfall

South African climate variability has been linked to changes in both the Agulhas system and external forcing (i.e. CO 2 and ozone). We analysed future climate change in the Agulhas system volume transport and its associated impacts on South Africa’s precipitation using the Community Climate System Model version 4 as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5. Output from one historical and three future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were examined to project various climate storylines. We found that the Agulhas Current volume transport decreases across all three scenarios and that the current displays a strong baroclinic component with an increase in transport at the surface and decrease at intermediate depths. Agulhas leakage was found to increase with historical emissions. Additionally, an east-west dipole pattern for convective precipitation was found over South Africa, with an increase over the eastern region related to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a decrease in the western region linked to the location of Hadley cell edge latitude. Moving into the 21st century, future predictions in regional climate variability are shown to be dependent on the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions and are extremely important for South Africa, a region prone to drought and flooding and home to a large population dependent on rain-fed agriculture.Significance:Future climate variability in the Agulhas system and South African region is heavily dependent on changes in external forcing.The Agulhas Current volume transport decreases as the greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase and a strong baroclinic component is found with an increase in transport at the surface and a decrease at the intermediate depths.A strong east-west dipole precipitation pattern is found over South Africa with the increase in the eastern region related to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the decrease in the western region related to the location of the Hadley cell edge latitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Performance Evaluation of of Active Insulation Systems using Solid-State Thermal Switches

Traditional building envelopes have passive insulation systems that cannot respond to dynamic changes in the environment. An Active Insulation System (AIS) consists of Active Insulation Materials (AIMs), which dynamically vary the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Several researchers have evaluated the impact of AIS on building thermal and energy performance by using simulation tools. Up to 70% savings in annual heating and cooling energy and significant reductions in peak demand have been predicted for some climates with wall systems employing AIS. Sensitivity studies have provided requirements for the AIS properties and control schemes that can lead to those savings. However, materials and assembly development have not yet achieved a cost-effective product that achieves the required performance. In this study, we present the process to develop an AIS that we will install in a test hut for their performance evaluation. Minimum performance criteria of the AIS system are developed based on Rmin/Rmax ratio, required time and efficiency to switch states and cost estimate. The next step carried out during this study is creating the concept to meet the requirements, predicting the performance by simulations, developing the experimental setup for bench-scale testing, and finally, constructing a full-scale wall assembly and monitoring the performance when exposed to natural weather conditions. The selected approach uses off-the-shelf products to create a materials system that can switch R-value between R~=1 ft2·°F·h/BTU (0.18 m2·K/W) and R~=7 ft2·°F·h/BTU (1.23 m2·K/W and have a switching time of less than one minute between R-high and R-low.

Iffa, Emishaw↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Climate Models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on the planet, with far-reaching global impacts. It is therefore key to evaluate ENSO simulations in state-of-the-art numerical models used to study past, present, and future climate. Recently, the Pacific Region Panel of the International Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR) Project, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), led a community-wide effort to evaluate the simulation of ENSO variability, teleconnections, and processes in climate models. The new CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package enables model diagnosis, comparison, and evaluation to 1) highlight aspects that need improvement; 2) monitor progress across model generations; 3) help in selecting models that are well suited for particular analyses; 4) reveal links between various model biases, illuminating the impacts of those biases on ENSO and its sensitivity to climate change; and to 5) advance ENSO literacy. By interfacing with existing model evaluation tools, the ENSO metrics package enables rapid analysis of multipetabyte databases of simulations, such as those generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 models are found to significantly outperform those from CMIP5 for 8 out of 24 ENSO-relevant metrics, with most CMIP6 models showing improved tropical Pacific seasonality and ENSO teleconnections. Only one ENSO metric is significantly degraded in CMIP6, namely, the coupling between the ocean surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, while the majority of metrics remain unchanged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Northern Hemisphere Growing Season Net Carbon Flux in Climate Models Using Aircraft Observations

Understanding terrestrial ecosystems and their response to anthropogenic climate change requires quantification of land-atmosphere carbon exchange. However, top-down and bottom-up estimates of large-scale land-atmosphere fluxes, including the northern extratropical growing season net flux (GSNF), show significant discrepancies. We developed a data-driven metric for the GSNF using atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration observations collected during the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations and Atmospheric Tomography Mission flight campaigns. This aircraft-derived metric is bias-corrected using three independent atmospheric inversion systems. We estimate the northern extratropical GSNF to be 5.7 ± 0.3 Pg C and use it to evaluate net biosphere productivity from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models. While the model-to-model spread in the GSNF has decreased in the CMIP6 models relative to that of the CMIP5 models, there is still disagreement on the magnitude and timing of seasonal carbon uptake with most models underestimating the GSNF and overestimating the length of the growing season relative to the observations. We also use an emergent constraint approach to estimate annual northern extratropical gross primary productivity to be 56 ± 17 Pg C, heterotrophic respiration to be 25 ± 13 Pg C, and net primary productivity to be 28 ± 12 Pg C. The flux inferred from these aircraft observations provides an additional constraint on large-scale gross fluxes in prognostic Earth system models that may ultimately improve our ability to accurately predict carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving streamflow predictions across CONUS by integrating advanced machine learning models and diverse data

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial to understand climate impacts on water resources and develop effective adaption strategies. A global long short-term memory (LSTM) model, using data from multiple basins, can enhance streamflow prediction, yet acquiring detailed basin attributes remains a challenge. To overcome this, we introduce the Geo-vision transformer (ViT)-LSTM model, a novel approach that enriches LSTM predictions by integrating basin attributes derived from remote sensing with a ViT architecture. Applied to 531 basins across the Contiguous United States, our method demonstrated superior prediction accuracy in both temporal and spatiotemporal extrapolation scenarios. Geo-ViT-LSTM marks a significant advancement in land surface modeling, providing a more comprehensive and effective tool for better understanding the environment responses to climate change.

Tayal, Kshitij↗

DOE OSTI2021

The role of oxygen in stimulating methane production in wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas, is the second most important greenhouse gas contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The biological emissions of CH 4 from wetlands are a major uncertainty in CH 4 budgets. Microbial methanogenesis by Archaea is an anaerobic process accounting for most biological CH 4 production in nature, yet recent observations indicate that large emissions can originate from oxygenated or frequently oxygenated wetland soil layers. To determine how oxygen (O 2 ) can stimulate CH 4 emissions, we used incubations of Sphagnum peat to demonstrate that the temporary exposure of peat to O 2 can increase CH 4 yields up to 2000-fold during subsequent anoxic conditions relative to peat without O 2 exposure. Geochemical (including ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, X-ray absorbance spectroscopy) and microbiome (16S rDNA amplicons, metagenomics) analyses of peat showed that higher CH 4 yields of redox-oscillated peat were due to functional shifts in the peat microbiome arising during redox oscillation that enhanced peat carbon (C) degradation. Novosphingobium species with O 2 -dependent aromatic oxygenase genes increased greatly in relative abundance during the oxygenation period in redox-oscillated peat compared to anoxic controls. Acidobacteria species were particularly important for anaerobic processing of peat C, including in the production of methanogenic substrates H 2 and CO 2 . Higher CO 2 production during the anoxic phase of redox-oscillated peat stimulated hydrogenotrophic CH 4 production by Methanobacterium species. The persistence of reduced iron (Fe(II)) during prolonged oxygenation in redox-oscillated peat may further enhance C degradation through abiotic mechanisms (e.g., Fenton reactions). The results indicate that specific functional shifts in the peat microbiome underlie O 2 enhancement of CH 4 production in acidic, Sphagnum-rich wetland soils. They also imply that understanding microbial dynamics spanning temporal and spatial redox transitions in peatlands is critical for constraining CH 4 budgets; predicting feedbacks between climate change, hydrologic variability, and wetland CH 4 emissions; and guiding wetland C management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ice Nucleating Particles, Aerosols and Clouds over the Higher Latitude Southern Ocean

Improved understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions is a key goal of the DOE-ASR program. Ice Nucleating Particles (INPs) are rare aerosol particles that trigger ice formation in clouds. By doing so they may initiate precipitation in clouds, and this impacts cloud lifetime. Nowhere may the role of INPs be manifested so dramatically as in the Southern Ocean (SO). This vast region was the focus of the DOE-ARM MARCUS (Measurement of Aerosols, Radiation and CloUds over the Southern Oceans) and MICRE (Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment) campaigns. In the SO, a deficit of INPs has been a leading hypothesis for why liquid clouds persist, which underlays the bias of global climate models in predicting excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface between 55°S and Antarctica. In this study, we used the 6-month acquisition of INP data on four MARCUS cruises from Hobart, Tasmania, to Antarctica, and the single-location full annual INP cycle observed in MICRE, to gain a holistic, quantitative picture of the INP number concentrations as a function of temperature and their variability over SO latitudes from 43°S to Antarctica. Augmenting initial processing of filter collections of aerosol particles during MARCUS and MICRE, additional freezing studies following thermal treatment (to removes INPs associated with microbes) and peroxide treatment (to remove all organics), as well as ionic chemistry and total organic carbon analysis, were applied to samples to improve time and space resolution, and differentiate marine from terrestrial contributions. We also performed Next Generation Sequencing to determine that bacterial composition can tag periods of enhanced and degraded marine organic INPs and the relative lack of occurrence of land-sourced bio-particles. Through these and other analyses, INP data were categorized into representative source types (e.g., marine versus terrestrially-influenced). The products of our analyses are being used to parameterize ice formation for use in numerical modeling studies to determine if, and when, ocean-derived INPs control the microphysical composition and radiative balance of SO clouds in a manner not presently captured by global models. The specific objectives and approaches proposed were largely accomplished, including: 1) Additional and value-added chemical and biological analyses of archived samples of aerosols were completed to categorize and quantify INP types and concentrations over the SO. 2) Analyses were completed to place INP data in meteorological and aerosol context. 3) Sea spray aerosol INPs were demonstrated to dominate the SO region in all but episodic events. 4) New parameterizations for INP sources relevant to the SO were constructed. 5) Collaborative modeling studies demonstrating the crucial role of INPs in determining cloud radiative and precipitation properties were conducted with MARCUS and MICRE partners. Collaborative publication submissions in this regard ensued within the two year study. This work will advance the science of interactions of aerosols, clouds and precipitation, to improve their representation in regional and global climate models. Results have informed representation of primary ice crystal nucleation, give inference to the role of secondary processes, and improve investigations of aerosol influences on clouds via ice nucleation over SO high latitudes and similar vast ocean regions. Application will improve representation of such interactions for clouds in both regional and global climate models. The data base and analyses methods applied will continue to serve research studies in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate, Hydrology, and Nutrients Control the Seasonality of Si Concentrations in Rivers

Abstract The seasonal behavior of fluvial dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations, termedDSi regime, mediates the timing of DSi delivery to downstream waters and thus governs river biogeochemical function and aquatic community condition. Previous work identified five distinct DSi regimes across rivers spanning the Northern Hemisphere, with many rivers exhibiting multiple DSi regimes over time. Several potential drivers of DSi regime behavior have been identified at small scales, including climate, land cover, and lithology, and yet the large‐scale spatiotemporal controls on DSi regimes have not been identified. We evaluate the role of environmental variables on the behavior of DSi regimes in nearly 200 rivers across the Northern Hemisphere using random forest models. Our models aim to elucidate the controls that give rise to (a) average DSi regime behavior, (b) interannual variability in DSi regime behavior (i.e., Annual DSi regime), and (c) controls on DSi regime shape (i.e., minimum and maximum DSi concentrations). Average DSi regime behavior across the period of record was classified accurately 59% of the time, whereas Annual DSi regime behavior was classified accurately 80% of the time. Climate and primary productivity variables were important in predicting Average DSi regime behavior, whereas climate and hydrologic variables were important in predicting Annual DSi regime behavior. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were important drivers of minimum and maximum DSi concentrations, indicating that these macronutrients may be important for seasonal DSi drawdown and rebound. Our findings demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, hydrology, and nutrient availability of rivers shape the temporal availability of fluvial DSi.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

The use of idealised experiments in testing a new convective parametrization: Performance of CoMorph-A

CoMorph is a new mass-flux convection parametrization under development at the Met Office designed for use within the Unified Model and its successor model, LFRic. Use of a three-dimensional idealised model enables controlled tests of the performance of the scheme across different regimes. This includes the interaction between the physical parametrizations and the resolved dynamics, allowing study of the emergent organisation of convection on the resolved scale. A selection of well-known cases is revisited here, with the purpose of documenting the extent to which CoMorph captures a range of important, but challenging, behaviour such as the diurnal cycle and sensitivity to tropospheric moisture. Simulations using CoMorph-A, a new physics package, that has been demonstrated to perform well at numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate scales, are compared against the current global atmosphere configuration and high-resolution results. In addition to an entirely new convection scheme, the package of changes includes significant changes to the cloud, microphysics, and boundary-layer parametrizations. Recognising that CoMorph-A is the first version of a scheme that will continue to be substantially developed and to obtain good performance, compromises in tuning have had to be made. These idealised tests therefore show what works well in this configuration, and what areas will require further work. As such, it is quite a demanding testbed and could be viewed as some of the equipment required for a “convective playground”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatially calibrating polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as proxies of area burned by vegetation fires: Insights from comparisons of historical data and sedimentary PAH fluxes

Many regions worldwide have experienced increasing wildfire activity in recent years and climate changes are predicted to result in more frequent and severe fires. Reconstruction of past fire activity offers paleoenvironmental context for modern and future burning. Pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been increasingly used as a molecular biomarker for fire occurrence in the paleorecord and offer opportunity for nuanced reconstructions of fire characteristics. A suite of PAHs are produced during combustion, and the emission amount and assemblage is influenced by many variables including fuel type, fire temperature, and oxygen availability. Despite recent advances in understanding the controls and taphonomy of these biomass burning markers, the spatial scale of this proxy is unknown. In this paper, measurements of PAH fluxes preserved in a lake sediment archive from the Sierra Nevada, California were compared with a historical geographic information system dataset of area burned up to 150 km distance from the lake to determine the spatial scales for which these biomarkers are reliable proxies of burning. Comparisons of PAH fluxes with charcoal accumulation rates in the same sediments suggest that pyrogenic particulate transport modulates low to mid-molecular weight PAHs via adsorption. Overall, the results indicate that PAH records integrate a combination of spatial signals of area burned and measurement of individual PAHs may enable cross-scale paleofire reconstructions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗