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At least 343 records · Page 19

Hands-On Computer Science: The Array of Things Experimental Urban Instrument

Chicago's Array of Things (AoT) project is aptly described as a technology experiment or a "smart city" prototype. The concept of such an extensible "instrument" arose within a larger translational research vision applying computer science and engineering research for the multidimensional benefit of people and communities in cities. The AoT project hypothesized that wireless intelligent sensor networks could enable both quantitative social science and urban monitoring while also stimulating youth interest in science and technology. Successful deployment of such sensor networks could provide open data from urban measurements not only in support of diverse research questions-in environmental dynamics, urban architecture, engineering, and social sciences-but also informing community groups and city planners. Further, the AoT project and its successor SAGE project are a computer science and engineering experiment, but its success is inextricably tied to community engagement and experiential education. Simply put, community acceptance is a prerequisite to installing and testing the instrument.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Generation of Synthetic Data for a Radiation Detection Algorithm Competition

This paper details the generation of synthetic radiation data using large-scale Monte Carlo transport models to evaluate radiation search detection algorithms. Modular 3-D Monte Carlo models spanning multiple city blocks were constructed, loosely based on downtown Knoxville, TN, containing buildings composed of multiple materials (brick, granite, and concrete), sidewalks, a four-lane road, side streets, parking lots, and grassy fields. Background and simulated source detector response calculations from these models were used to create synthetic list mode data sets for a 2"×4"×16" NaI(Tl) detector moving through a city street at a constant speed. For the background simulations, major isotopes were computed individually so that background composition and variability could be computed efficiently outside Monte Carlo. The source detector response included six simulated sources placed at 15 source locations. Detector response was developed to be periodic through the city street so that a detector path could begin at one end of the model and wrap around to the other. This framework allowed for the creation of diverse data sets, each with its own unique background and simulated source detector response. Synthetic data allows for high-quality labels, which are useful in developing data-driven radiation detection algorithms. This methodology was used to create synthetic data sets which were released as part of a public data competition to spur the development of new radiation detection algorithms for radiological search applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Crowd-based spatial risk assessment of urban flooding: Results from a municipal flood hotline in Detroit, MI

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, raising the risk of urban flood disasters. This study uses a crowd-sourced municipal call database to characterize the spatial distribution of flood risk in Detroit, MI. Call data including dates and addresses were obtained from the City of Detroit Department of Public Works for 2021. Calls were mapped and aggregated to census tract counts and merged with neighborhood-level data. Associations of predictors with flood calls were tested using spatial regression models. Flooding calls were located throughout the city but were concentrated in specific areas. Multivariate models of census tract level call counts indicated that increased poverty and Black, immigrant, and older residents were positively associated with flood calls, while increased elevation was associated with protective effects. Longer distances from waste water interceptors were associated with higher risk for calls. Crowd-sourced flood hotline call data can be used for effective spatial flood risk assessment. Though flooding occurs throughout the city of Detroit, infrastructural, neighborhood, and household factors influence flooding extent. Limitations included the self-reported nature of calls. Future modeling efforts might include input from local stakeholders to improve spatial risk assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urban Energy and Climate: Prospects for a Sustainable Transition

With the continuous migration of people towards metropolitan areas in search of employment, the demands for core services and energy, coupled with an increasing awareness of the impact of climate change, have placed the management and planning of global urban energy under a lot of pressure. Trends toward urban energy service transformations that offer greater affordability, reliability, efficiency and adaptability provide hope for a global sustainable future. At the same time, there are also limits to these transitions, as well as risks involved. For example, on one end of the spectrum, our urban energy future includes land use sprawl, high fossil fuel use, pollution, and unhealthy urban conditions. On the other side of this transition spectrum is more energy choices, and healthier, more livable cities, along with less energy use and fewer greenhouse gas emissions. What the future might hold for transforming the world's cities depends upon an understanding of the risks of current trajectories and the opportunities for and limitations to developing sustainable urban energy systems. This edited volume brings together leading experts on the prospects and challenges of urban energy innovation and on related-economic, social and environmental sustainability transitions. The focus of the volume is on multidisciplinary reviews, research informing technologies and policies for sustainability, and analytical insights addressing rapid urbanization and changes across a diverse typology of global cities. The volume will include an overview of the current state of urban energy systems. It will also document and evaluate urban energy prospects for a sustainable, resilient future.

drivers of change↗

Urbanization-induced land and aerosol impacts on storm propagation and hail characteristics

Changes in land surface and aerosol characteristics from urbanization can affect dynamic and microphysical properties of severe storms, thus affecting hazardous weather events resulting from such storms such as hail and tornado. We examine the joint and individual effects of urban land and anthropogenic aerosols of Kansas City on a severe convective storm observed during the 2015 Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign, focusing on storm evolution, convective intensity, and hail characteristics. The simulations are carried out at the cloud-resolving scale (1 km) using a version of WRF-Chem in which the spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) is coupled with the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC). It is found that the urban land effect of Kansas City initiated a much stronger convective cell and the storm got further intensified when interacting with stronger turbulence induced by the urban land. The urban land effect also changed the storm path by diverting the storm toward the city mainly resulting from enhanced urban land-induced convergence in the urban area and around the urban-rural boundaries. The joint effect of urban land and anthropogenic aerosols enhances occurrences of both severe hail and significant severe hail by ~ 20% by enhancing hail formation and growth from riming. Overall the urban land effect on convective intensity and hail is relatively larger than the anthropogenic aerosol effect, but the joint effect is much notable than either of the individual effects, emphasizing the importance to consider both effects in evaluating urbanization effects.

Lin, Yun↗

Evaluation of Turbulence and Dispersion in Multiscale Atmospheric Simulations over Complex Urban Terrain during the Joint Urban 2003 Field Campaign

Abstract This paper evaluates the representation of turbulence and its effect on transport and dispersion within multiscale and microscale-only simulations in an urban environment. These simulations, run using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the addition of an immersed boundary method, predict transport and mixing during a controlled tracer release from the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. This work extends the results of a recent study through analysis of turbulence kinetic energy and turbulence spectra and their role in accurately simulating wind speed, direction, and tracer concentration. The significance and role of surface heat fluxes and use of the cell perturbation method in the numerical simulation setup are also examined. Our previous study detailed the model development necessary for our multiscale simulations, examined model skill at predicting wind speeds and tracer concentrations, and demonstrated that dynamic downscaling from mesoscale to microscale through a sequence of nested simulations can improve predictions of transport and dispersion relative to a microscale-only simulation forced by idealized meteorology. Here, predictions are compared with observations to assess qualitative agreement and statistical model skill at predicting wind speed, wind direction, tracer concentration, and turbulent kinetic energy at locations throughout the city. We also investigate the scale distribution of turbulence and the associated impact on model skill, particularly for predictions of transport and dispersion. Our results show that downscaled large-scale turbulence, which is unique to the multiscale simulations, significantly improves predictions of tracer concentrations in this complex urban environment. Significance Statement Simulations of atmospheric transport and mixing in urban environments have many applications, including pollution modeling for urban planning or informing emergency response following a hazardous release. These applications include phenomena with spatial scales spanning from millimeters to kilometers. Most simulations resolve flow only within the urban area of interest, omitting larger scales of turbulence and regional influences. This study examines a method that resolves both the small and large-scale flow features. We evaluate simulation accuracy by comparing predictions with observations from an experiment involving the release of a tracer gas in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, with emphasis on correctly modeling turbulent fluctuations. Our results demonstrate the importance of resolving large-scale flow features when predicting transport and dispersion in urban environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Factors Influencing Willingness to Pool in Ride-Hailing Trips

In the past decade, transportation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber, Lyft, and Via have established themselves as a viable transportation alternative to other modes. However, the popularity of these services has come with a fair share of criticism for their negative externalities such as increasing vehicle miles traveled and congestion in cities. Pooled ride-hailing trips, in which all or a part of two individual (or group) trips are combined in and served by a single vehicle, have the potential to reduce these externalities. Pooling of rides is an effective solution to reduce congestion and travel cost, but pooled rides still represent a small percentage of the total trips served (and miles driven) by TNCs relative to single-occupancy (and without customer) vehicle miles. Both TNCs and cities alike will benefit from understanding what factors encourage or deter pooling a ride-hailing trip. In this study, newly available Chicago transportation network provider data were explored to identify the extent to which different socioeconomic, spatiotemporal, and trip characteristics affect willingness to pool (WTP) in ride-hailing trips. Furthermore, multivariate linear regression and machine-learning models were employed to understand and predict WTP based on location, time, and trip factors. The results show intuitive trends, with income level at drop-off and pickup locations and airport trips as the most important predictors of WTP. Results from this study can help TNCs and cities devise strategies that increase pooled ride-hailing, thereby reducing adverse transportation and energy impacts from ride-hailing modes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Direct measurement of the contribution of street lighting to satellite observations of nighttime light emissions from urban areas

Nighttime light emissions are increasing in most countries worldwide, but which types of lighting are responsible for the increase remains unknown. Also unknown is what fraction of outdoor light emissions and associated energy use are due to public light sources (i.e. streetlights) or various types of private light sources (e.g. advertising). Here we show that it is possible to measure the contribution of street lighting to nighttime satellite imagery using ‘smart city’ lighting infrastructure. The city of Tucson, USA, intentionally altered its streetlight output over 10 days, and we examined the change in emissions observed by satellite. We find that streetlights operated by the city are responsible for only 13% of the total radiance (in the 500–900 nm band) observed from Tucson from space after midnight (95% confidence interval 10–16%). If Tucson did not dim their streetlights after midnight, the contribution would be 18% (95% confidence interval 15–23%). When streetlights operated by other actors are included, the best estimates rise to 16% and 21%, respectively. Existing energy and lighting policy related to the sustainability of outdoor light use has mainly focused on street lighting. These results suggest an urgent need for consideration of other types of light sources in outdoor lighting policy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Relationship Between Radiation Dose and Markers of Insulin Resistance and Inflammation in Atomic Bomb Survivors

Abstract Context In recent studies of childhood cancer survivors, diabetes has been considered a late effect associated with high therapeutic doses of radiation therapy. Our recent study of atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors also suggested an association between radiation dose and diabetes incidence, with exposure city and age at exposure as radiation dose effect modifiers. Insulin resistance mediated by systemic inflammation and abnormal body composition has been suggested as a possible primary mechanism for the incidence of diabetes after total body irradiation; however, no studies have examined low to moderate radiation exposure (<4 Gy) and insulin resistance in A-bomb survivors. Objective To examine the association between radiation dose and markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Methods This study investigated 3152 survivors who underwent a health examination between 2008 and 2012 and who were younger than 15 years at exposure. Multivariate linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the radiation effects on levels of markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Results Radiation dose was significantly and positively associated with levels of C-reactive protein, triglycerides, homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function (HOMA-β), and HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) after adjustment for relevant covariates including sex, city, and age at exposure. Adiponectin and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were also associated significantly and negatively with radiation dose. However, city was not a dose modifier of the radiation response on these markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Conclusion Insulin resistance might be a possible factor in radiation-related diabetes incidence in A-bomb survivors.

Endocrinology & Metabolism↗

2022 Bull E-Bike Pilot Program Study

In 2022, the City of Durham conducted an e-bike pilot program study to learn more about how electric bikes (e-bikes) could improve the transportation experience in the "Bull City" (a.k.a., Durham, North Carolina). The study used pedal-assist e-bikes, which feature an electric motor and battery to help power the bike. The motor amplifies the power behind each pedal stroke, augmenting the energy you put into the bike. #### Data Collection Agency The City of Durham's Transportation Department conducted the study. #### Survey Methodology Program participants used electric-assist e-bikes for at least 4 weeks between August and November 2022 in exchange for sharing information about their experiences, including tracking their travel via a smartphone app. In addition to the e-bike, participants received maintenance support along with a helmet, bike lock, and other accessories. Data collection was enabled by the [NLR OpenPATH platform](https://www.nlr.gov/transportation/openpath.html). #### Survey Records and Data Survey records include a total of 76 participants. The dataset contains 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed travel behavior data—patterns of multimodal, end-to-end, individual human mobility—as well as demographic and socioeconomic information from participants. The number of total trips was 6,488, the number of e-bike trips was 2,183, and the number of e-bike miles traveled was 5,450.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Remote Alaska Communities Energy Efficiency Competition: Energy Efficiency for the Gem of the Yukon (Final Report)

Over the past decade, the City of Ruby has been proactive in working to reduce cost and energy use in the community. Ruby (Tl’aa’ologhe) is a remote city in Alaska located on the south bank of the Yukon River near the Kilbuck-Kuskokwim Mountains, about 50 air miles east of Galena and 230 air miles west of Fairbanks. As of 2019, the community has a population of over 150 people and most of Ruby’s residents are Koyukon Athabascan. Ruby has a long history of promoting local efficiency and clean energy in an effort to become more sustainable. Between 2007-2010, the community hosted Alaska’s first demonstration of an in-river hydrokinetic test project, sponsored by the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council. In 2011, a 5kW solar photo-voltaic (PV) array was installed by the Interior Regional Housing Authority. In 2012, the community had a new power plant constructed by the Alaska Energy Authority that supplies waste heat to the washeteria, clinic and public safety garage, saving the community more than 4,000 gallons of heating fuel per year. The clinic, constructed by the Tanana Chiefs Conference, is one of the most energy efficient buildings in the interior and utilizes new building efficiency standards that were passed by the tribes. It has a 5kW solar PV array that provides energy into the local electric grid and offsets approximately 20% of the annual energy use. Building on this legacy, the City of Ruby entered into Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Remote Alaska Communities Energy Efficiency Competition (RACEE) in 2016, pledging to reduce per-capita energy use 15% by 2020. During the second phase of the competition, 13 communities including Ruby were provided funding for tailored technical assistance to measure energy use and create energy efficiency plans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling Urban Acoustic Noise in the Las Vegas, NV Region

Ambient infrasound noise in quiet, rural environments has been extensively studied and well-characterized through noise models for several decades. More recently, creating noise models for high-noise rural environments has also become an area of active research. However, far less work has been done to create generalized low-frequency noise models for urban areas. The high ambient noise levels expected in cities and other highly populated areas means that these environments are regarded as poor locations for acoustic sensors, and historically, sensor deployment in urban areas were avoided for this reason. However, there are several advantages to placing sensors in urban environments, including convenience of deployment and maintenance, and increasingly, necessity, as more previously rural areas become populated. This study seeks to characterize trends in low-frequency urban noise by creating a background noise model for Las Vegas, NV, using the Las Vegas Infrasound Array (LVIA): a network of eleven infrasound sensors deployed throughout the city. Data included in this study spans from 2019 to 2021 and provides a largely uninterrupted record of noise levels in the city from 0.1–500 Hz, with only minor discontinuities on individual stations. We organize raw data from the LVIA sensors into hourly power spectral density (PSD) averages for each station and select from these PSDs to create frequency distributions for time periods of interest . These frequency distributions are converted into probability density functions (PDFs), which are then used to evaluate variations in frequency and amplitude over daily to seasonal timescale s. In addition to PDFs, the median, 5 th percentile, and 95 th percentile amplitude values are calculated across the entire frequency range. This methodology follows a well-established process for noise model creation.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Extending the Air and Moisture Leakage Calculator to add Residential Buildings and Additional Commercial Buildings

The DOE Windows and Building Envelope Research and Development Roadmap for Emerging Technologies shows that in 2010, infiltration was responsible for 4 quads of space conditioning primary energy use in the residential and commercial sectors. The relative contribution of air leakage in building heating and cooling load is increasing with improvement in the thermal resistance of building envelopes. Advanced air barrier technologies and construction practices have been developed to reduce air leakage in buildings. However, limited information on the impact of air barrier technologies on energy consumption and the durability of buildings has hindered their adoption. In the past Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Air Barrier Association of America (ABBA), and U.S.-China Clean Energy Research Center for Building Energy Efficiency (CERC-BEE) collaborated to develop an online calculator that estimates the potential energy and cost savings in major U.S., Canadian and Chinese cities from improvement in air tightness in commercial buildings. In 2018–2019, the calculator was expanded to add moisture transfer calculations given that air leakage through the building envelope can have a significant impact on moisture transfer and associated impacts. In this study, the calculator is expanded further by adding data for two additional commercial buildings (strip mall and primary school) and a residential building. The team investigated the impact of airtightness on energy consumption and moisture transfer of the added buildings. The study includes the analysis of air tightness in 52 major cities in the U.S. and 5 cities in Canada.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Equitable Electrification Analysis for Existing Buildings in Richmond, CA

Over a 12-month period beginning in July 2022, NREL coordinated with a coalition of staff from the City of Richmond and local community organizations to develop and conduct a city-wide building energy use analysis and develop and assess the impacts of various approaches to electrifying and improving energy efficiency of all existing residential and commercial buildings within the city limits. Building on data available through NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ analysis tools, the authors looked at potential modeled impacts of building envelope and electrification upgrades on five indicators identified by the community coalition: building energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, utility bill charges and cost-effectiveness, employment impacts, and health and safety impacts. This report summarizes the findings of that research and analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Pathways to Carbon Neutrality 2050 in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia has recently set an ambitious target of achieving carbon neutrality as early as 2050. To accomplish this, the country will need to strategically reduce its emissions across all sectors. In 2020, Malaysia emitted approximately 368 MtCO2e, with the largest sources of emissions including electricity (36% of total emissions), transportation (17%), and industry (15%)1. We find that the greatest reductions in emissions can therefore come from decarbonizing power generation and electrifying end-use sectors. Digitalization, smart technologies, and improved energy efficiency will significantly reduce economy-wide energy consumption. By leveraging efficient technologies, both Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur can address the challenges posed by rapid urbanization and climate change. Digitalization is a broad category that includes a variety of measures; for example, the wide adoption of high-efficiency appliances and lighting or improved building energy codes in the buildings sector. Similarly, technological improvements can advance industrial energy efficiency, and for transportation, smart technologies cover a shift from private to public transportation and the greater use of electric vehicles. While renewable energy (RE) will play a crucial role in decarbonization, achieving carbon neutrality in certain sectors will be difficult without emerging technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and innovative fuel sources such as hydrogen. In order for Malaysia to rely on CCS as a mitigation option, early investment and incentives to the private sector will be critical. This holds for the use of hydrogen as well: investing in the necessary technology, infrastructure, and human capital will allow Malaysia to position itself as an innovator in the region and leverage these advanced technologies as a key part of its climate strategy. Another possible carbon removal option other than CCS would be a land-use sink; however, given that Malaysia is still developing and may deforest in the near-term, this report does not focus on the mitigation potential of land-use change. With its innovative and bold climate plans, Kuala Lumpur is primed to be a leader in regional climate change efforts. Kuala Lumpur is also engaged in several international collaborations to ensure sustainable city development such as the C40 network and the ASEAN Smart Cities Partnership. As such, the city will play a critical role in contributing to Malaysia’s overall climate goals and as a policy trendsetter through ambitious, scalable plans. One key factor in these emissions reductions is that Kuala Lumpur has full control over its building guidelines, allowing for ambitious policies resulting in significant emissions reductions. However, in other sectors, Kuala Lumpur has less direct control over regulations; for example, power generation and integration of RE are largely in the hands of the Malaysian government. With limited and primarily light industry, Kuala Lumpur’s contributions to emissions reductions here are curbed. And, while Kuala Lumpur has control over local transportation policies like increasing access to and quality of public transportation, broad shifts in transportation will stem from national-level policies. As such, multi-level governance is an integral component of Malaysia’s climate strategy and coordination between local and national governments will be essential in reducing emissions and achieving other climate goals. This report addresses these and other key challenges and opportunities Malaysia faces on the road to carbon neutrality.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Urban Impacts on Convective Squall Lines over Chicago in the Warm Season—Part I: Observations of Multi-Scale Convective Evolution

In this study, our aim is to diagnose how two quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS) are organized so one can determine the possible role of the city of Chicago, IL, USA, in modifying convective precipitation systems. In this Part I of a two-part study, we employ large-scale analyses, radiosonde soundings, surface observations, and Doppler radar data to diagnose the precursor atmospheric circulations that organize the evolution of two mesoscale convective systems and compare those circulations to radar and precipitation. Several multi-scale processes are found that organize and modify convection over the Chicago metroplex. Two sequential quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS #1 and #2) were organized that propagated over Chicago, IL, USA, during an eight-hour period on 5–6 July 2018. The first squall line (QLCS #1) built from the southwest to the northeast while strengthening as it propagated over the city, and the second (QLCS #2) propagated southeastwards and weakened as it passed over the city in association with a polar cold front. The weak upper-level divergence associated with a diffluent flow poleward of an expansive ridge built over and strengthened a low-level trough and confluence zone, triggering QLCS #1. Convective downdrafts from QLCS #1 produced a cold pool that interacted with multiple confluent low-level jets surrounding and focused on the metroplex urban heat island, thus advecting the convection poleward over the metroplex. The heaviest precipitation occurred just south-southeast of Midway Airport, Chicago. Subsequently, a polar cold front propagated into the metroplex, which triggered QLCS #2. However, the descending air above it under the polar jet and residual cold pool from QLCS #1 rapidly dissipated the cold frontal convection. This represents a case study where very active convection built over the metroplex and was likely modified by it, as evidenced in numerical simulations to be described in Part II.

Kaplan, Michael L.↗

Open Data and Deep Semantic Segmentation for Automated Extraction of Building Footprints

Advances in machine learning and computer vision, combined with increased access to unstructured data (e.g., images and text), have created an opportunity for automated extraction of building characteristics, cost-effectively, and at scale. These characteristics are relevant to a variety of urban and energy applications, yet are time consuming and costly to acquire with today’s manual methods. Several recent research studies have shown that in comparison to more traditional methods that are based on features engineering approach, an end-to-end learning approach based on deep learning algorithms significantly improved the accuracy of automatic building footprint extraction from remote sensing images. However, these studies used limited benchmark datasets that have been carefully curated and labeled. How the accuracy of these deep learning-based approach holds when using less curated training data has not received enough attention. The aim of this work is to leverage the openly available data to automatically generate a larger training dataset with more variability in term of regions and type of cities, which can be used to build more accurate deep learning models. In contrast to most benchmark datasets, the gathered data have not been manually curated. Thus, the training dataset is not perfectly clean in terms of remote sensing images exactly matching the ground truth building’s foot-print. A workflow that includes data pre-processing, deep learning semantic segmentation modeling, and results post-processing is introduced and applied to a dataset that include remote sensing images from 15 cities and five counties from various region of the USA, which include 8,607,677 buildings. The accuracy of the proposed approach was measured on an out of sample testing dataset corresponding to 364,000 buildings from three USA cities. The results favorably compared to those obtained from Microsoft’s recently released US building footprint dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Interplay Between Climate and Urban Expansion on Building Energy Demand in Morocco

Understanding building energy demand is critical for addressing climate uncertainty challenges and ensuring sustainable urban growth. This study develops a building energy demand (BED) model to explore how climate variation and urban expansion affect residential and commercial space heating and cooling demands in Morocco for three scenarios, namely, 2005, 2018, and 2018 + 1.5 °C. The results show that coastal cities have lower heating and cooling needs due to the oceanic influence, while interior cities require significantly higher heating demand per-unit-floorspace. Between 2005 and 2018, urban growth increased total heating and cooling demand by 218.8 GWh, particularly in northern and coastal regions, despite per-unit-floorspace reductions in milder climates and improved building efficiency in 2018. Residential heating remains the dominant energy use, though commercial demand is significant in urban centers. Under the 2018 + 1.5 °C hypothetical scenario, heating demand across Morocco declines by 335.8 GWh compared to 2018, with urban areas amplifying this trend. Meanwhile, cooling demand increases slightly by 44.4 GWh, with major cities experiencing relative increases of up to 50%. These findings highlight a trade-off where reduced winter heating needs are partly offset by increased summer cooling demands in densely urbanized areas. In conclusion, the study identifies key urban hotspots for targeted interventions, emphasizing the need for energy-efficient building designs, climate-adaptive urban planning, and resilient energy management strategies to sustainably address shifting seasonal energy patterns.

Morocco↗