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At least 343 records · Page 19

Increasing Hurricane Intensification Rate Near the US Atlantic Coast

Hurricanes often cause severe damage and loss of life, and storms that intensify close to the coast pose a particularly serious threat. While changes in hurricane intensification and environment have been examined at basin scales previously, near-coastal changes have not been adequately explored. In this study, we address this using a suite of observations and climate model simulations. Over the 40-year period of 1979–2018, the mean 24-hr hurricane intensification rate increased by ~1.2 kt 6-hr –1 near the US Atlantic coast. However, a significant increase in intensification did not occur near the Gulf coast over the same period. The enhanced hurricane intensification along the Atlantic coast is consistent with an increasingly favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment there, which is well simulated by climate models over the historical period. Further, multi-model projections suggest a continued enhancement of the storm environment and hurricane intensification near the Atlantic coast in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The role of surface forces in environment-enhanced cracking of brittle solids

Fracture initiation and propagation in brittle materials is promoted in surface-reactive (sorptive) environments, a phenomenon known as subcritical crack growth (SCG). Laboratory measured crack-propagation velocity vs. stress intensity factor relationships typically exhibit highly nonlinear, multi-stage characteristics that are sensitive to environmental factors such as adsorbate concentration and temperature. For practical purposes, empirical relationships (e.g., a power law) have been used to describe this complex phenomenon. However, how the overall SCG behavior emerges from the underlying fundamental processes near the crack tip, such as the interaction of the crack surfaces separated by only a few nanometers and mass transport within the nano-confined space, is still not well understood. This paper develops a mechanistic, surface-force-based fracture theory (SFFT) which integrates surface force models, fluid transport models, and linear elastic fracture mechanics to quantitatively explain the multi-stage characteristics of SCG in brittle solids. A numerical model is developed based on SFFT and solved through an implicit partitioned scheme for efficiency and modularity. The results are validated by Wiederhorn's data on crack propagation in soda-lime glasses at a wide range of relative humidity levels. We show that, for the first time, the entire range of an SCG curve can be captured by a single physics-based model. The predicted SCG curves reveal that the development of repulsive disjoining pressure behind the crack tip can be responsible for the reduced apparent fracture toughness in a sorptive environment. In conclusion, the shape of the SCG curve, and its changes with respect to the environment, is found to critically depend on the assumed transport models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Heartbeat: Detecting Malware by Periodic Power Signal Injection and Monitoring

Rootkits and other stealthy malware attempt to conceal their presence on a computer by making changes to the host computer’s operating environment. ORNL’s Heartbeat technology detects these changes, and thus the malware itself. Heartbeat operates by directly monitoring the DC power consumption of the computer while a set of operations, the “heartbeat,” is executed periodically. These operations exercise parts of the operating system that are common targets of malware tampering. The power consumption during these heartbeat events is monitored and then compared to a previously learned baseline, with any significant deviation detected and analyzed. This technology has been tested and validated in a laboratory environment, and ORNL is currently seeking a deployment partner to allow for further in-context development and testing of this technology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2020) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the need of the global and regional atmospheric modelling community of having a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of a high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3.2, an ad-hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, is an update to the HTAP_v3 global mosaic inventory and has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including China, Japan and Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO x , CO, NMVOC, NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , Black Carbon (BC), and Organic Carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1 × 0.1° and time intervals of months and years covering the period 2000–2020 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17086684, Crippa, 2025, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_htap_v32, last access: 27 October 2025). The emissions are further disaggregated to 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past two decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policy making, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Ispra (Ital↗

Stimulus-Responsive Modulation of Solvation Environments in Solid Catalysts

Liquid environments play a crucial role in the biological processes occurring in living organisms as well as in many human-made processes involving electrochemistry, photo-, and thermocatalysis. In the majority of these systems, aqueous phases are ubiquitous due to water’s natural abundance. Water molecules, however, can exert large changes in the chemical environment of catalytically active sites, altering the reaction rates, selectivity, and catalyst stability. These solvation effects induced by water molecules near catalytic sites can drastically change the energy landscape and unlock unique reaction pathways with far more favorable kinetics. In nature, living organisms couple these complex interactions with detection, communication, and actuation mechanisms to induce self-regulatory behavior, ensuring stability of the system and thus long-term durability. Extrapolating this behavior to heterogeneous catalysis is desirable because the resulting “smart materials” can potentially unlock new chemical conversion processes with higher atom efficiency, rates, and stability. The combination of polymer chemistry and heterogeneous catalysis has introduced versatile approaches for creating materials that can respond to cues in the reaction medium that alter the accessibility, intrinsic activity, and selectivity of the catalyst. To achieve this, one could combine stimulus-responsive polymers, which undergo a large volumetric phase transition in response to an external stimulus, with a solid catalyst. This chemo-mechanical response has been employed to create a variety of nanoreactor vessels with stimulus-responsive character that turn on- and off- depending on the reaction conditions. In this Account, we focus on the impact of these polymer coatings on the solvation environment around the active site and the implications of these effects on the reaction energy landscape, molecular arrangement of the solvent, electric fields at the catalyst–liquid interface, binding energy, and mobility of surface reaction intermediates. These seemingly subtle changes in solvent molecules induced by the presence of polymers can have a tremendous impact on the development of bioinspired heterogeneous catalysts, reliable chemical clocks, micro/nanoreactors, and robots. The large library of polymer chemistries offers a plethora of combinations of stimulus-responsive mechanisms (e.g., temperature, pH, light, magnetic field, solvent composition), providing the possibility of creating homeostatic catalysts à la carte.

catalysts↗

Meteorological environments associated with California wildfires and their potential roles in wildfire changes during 1984-2017

California has been seeing more wildfires in recent years, resulting in huge economic losses and threatening human health. Clarifying the meteorological environments of wildfires is foundational to improving the understanding and prediction of wildfires and their impacts. Here, 1535 California wildfires during 1984-2017 are systematically investigated. Based on two key meteorological factors - temperature and moisture anomalies - all wildfires are classified into four groups: hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, cold-wet. Most (~60%) wildfires occurred on hot-dry days. Compositing the large-scale environments of the four groups shows that persistent high pressure and strong northeasterly wind descending from inland favor hot-dry conditions for wildfires. This analysis also reveals an important role of anomalies in southerly onshore flow that supports stronger convection, accompanied by more lightning flashes that provide a triggering mechanism for wildfires under hot-wet conditions. Self-organizing map analysis lends confidence in the large-scale meteorological pattern for dominating hot-dry wildfires in California. Besides wildfire occurrence, wildfire size is also influenced by meteorological anomalies through their magnitudes. Among them, moisture anomaly explains the largest fraction (~69%) of variability in wildfire sizes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies are found to play an important role in the devastating 2018 wildfire season in California. During 1984-2017, wildfire burned area has significantly increased by ~3.6% per year, indicating a doubling of burned area in 2017 relative to 1984, with the trend dominated by hot-dry wildfires in summer. Drying and warming in conjunction with strengthening of the high pressure in summer support more frequent and larger wildfires in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Century-long timelines of herbarium genomes predict plant stomatal response to climate change

Abstract Dissecting plant responses to the environment is key to understanding whether and how plants adapt to anthropogenic climate change. Stomata, plants’ pores for gas exchange, are expected to decrease in density following increased CO 2 concentrations, a trend already observed in multiple plant species. However, it is unclear whether such responses are based on genetic changes and evolutionary adaptation. Here we make use of extensive knowledge of 43 genes in the stomatal development pathway and newly generated genome information of 191 Arabidopsis thaliana historical herbarium specimens collected over 193 years to directly link genetic variation with climate change. While we find that the essential transcription factors SPCH, MUTE and FAMA, central to stomatal development, are under strong evolutionary constraints, several regulators of stomatal development show signs of local adaptation in contemporary samples from different geographic regions. We then develop a functional score based on known effects of gene knock-out on stomatal development that recovers a classic pattern of stomatal density decrease over the past centuries, suggesting a genetic component contributing to this change. This approach combining historical genomics with functional experimental knowledge could allow further investigations of how different, even in historical samples unmeasurable, cellular plant phenotypes may have already responded to climate change through adaptive evolution.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Architecting the Grid Edge: Ensuring Reliability and Resilience

Changes in technology, customer expectations, and business and regulatory environments are rapidly evolving causing fundamental changes in the nation’s electrical infrastructure. Nowhere is this more apparent that at the “grid edge”, where there is an increasing number of new devices and systems, as well as complex new interactions between them. This is leading to the traditional relationship between the end-use customers and their utilities being expanded by an increasing number of stakeholders, each with their own operational and financial objectives, governed by regulatory policy. While there are concerns about the rapidly increasing complexity negatively impacting reliable and resilience of the electrical infrastructure, these changes are also bringing new resources and opportunities that hold great potential if they can be properly coordinated. This white paper outlines the considerations for the coordination of multi-stakeholder objectives with electric utility requirements using the concept of grid services. Describing a framework that enables new stakeholders to achieve their local technical and economic objectives, while simultaneously delivering operational benefits to the electrical infrastructure. The concepts of grid architecture are presented as a tool to evaluate how stakeholders might participate in, and benefit from, services, and how utilities can make decision on the reliance on services to ensure reliability and resilience, translating abstract concepts into actionable information for utilities and grid edge stakeholders. The end result of proper coordination, informed by grid architecture, will be a range of new devices and systems, operated by new stakeholders, achieving their local objectives while also increasing the reliability, resilience, security, and affordability of the nation’s critical electrical infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Architecting the Grid Edge: Ensuring Reliability and Resilience

Changes in technology, customer expectations, and business and regulatory environments are rapidly evolving causing fundamental changes in the nation’s electrical infrastructure. Nowhere is this more apparent that at the “grid edge”, where there is an increasing number of new devices and systems, as well as complex new interactions between them. This is leading to the traditional relationship between the end-use customers and their utilities being expanded by an increasing number of stakeholders, each with their own operational and financial objectives, governed by regulatory policy. While there are concerns about the rapidly increasing complexity negatively impacting reliable and resilience of the electrical infrastructure, these changes are also bringing new resources and opportunities that hold great potential if they can be properly coordinated. This white paper outlines the considerations for the coordination of multi-stakeholder objectives with electric utility requirements using the concept of grid services. Describing a framework that enables new stakeholders to achieve their local technical and economic objectives, while simultaneously delivering operational benefits to the electrical infrastructure. The concepts of grid architecture are presented as a tool to evaluate how stakeholders might participate in, and benefit from, services, and how utilities can make decision on the reliance on services to ensure reliability and resilience, translating abstract concepts into actionable information for utilities and grid edge stakeholders. The end result of proper coordination, informed by grid architecture, will be a range of new devices and systems, operated by new stakeholders, achieving their local objectives while also increasing the reliability, resilience, security, and affordability of the nation’s critical electrical infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Proactive and Reactive Thermal Comfort Behaviors

The expansion of renewable electricity generation, growing demands due to electrification, greater prevalence of working from home, and increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, will place new demands on the electric supply and distribution grid. Broader adoption of demand response programs (DRPs) for the residential sector may help meet these challenges; however, experience shows that occupant overrides in DRPs compromises their effectiveness. There is a lack of formal understanding of how discomfort, routines, and other motivations affect DRP overrides and other related human building interactions (HBI). This paper reports preliminary findings from a study of 20 households in Colorado and Massachusetts, US over three months. Participants responded to ecological momentary assessments (EMA) triggered by thermostat interactions and at random times throughout the day. EMAs included Likert-scale questions of thermal preference, preference intensity, and changes to 7 different activity types that could affect thermal comfort, and an opened ended question about motivations of such actions. Twelve tags were developed to categorize motivation responses and analyzed statistically to identify associations between motivations, preferences, and HBI actions. Reactions to changes in the thermal environment were the most frequently observed motivation (118 of 220 responses). On the other hand, almost half (47%) responses were at least partially motivated by non-thermal factors, suggesting limited utility for occupant behavior models founded solely on thermal comfort. Changes in activity level and clothing were less likely to be reported when EMAs were triggered by thermostat interactions, while fan interactions were more likely. Windows, shades, and portable heater interactions had no significant dependence on how the EMA was triggered. These results suggest that better understanding of motivations for HBI may improve effectiveness of demand response programs.

Pathak, Maharshi↗

Dynamic resource allocation drives growth under nitrogen starvation in eukaryotes

Cells can sense changes in their extracellular environment and subsequently adapt their biomass composition. Nutrient abundance defines the capability of the cell to produce biomass components. Under nutrient-limited conditions, resource allocation dramatically shifts to carbon-rich molecules. Here, we used dynamic biomass composition data to predict changes in growth and reaction flux distributions using the available genome-scale metabolic models of five eukaryotic organisms (three heterotrophs and two phototrophs). We identified temporal profiles of metabolic fluxes that indicate long-term trends in pathway and organelle function in response to nitrogen depletion. Surprisingly, our calculations of model sensitivity and biosynthetic cost showed that free energy of biomass metabolites is the main driver of biosynthetic cost and not molecular weight, thus explaining the high costs of arginine and histidine. We demonstrated how metabolic models can accurately predict the complexity of interwoven mechanisms in response to stress over the course of growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Target Detection via Cognitive Radars Using Change-Point Detection, Learning, and Adaptation

Many radar detection algorithms that assume a stationary environment (clutter) have been proposed and analyzed over the years. However, in practice, changes in the nonstationary environment can perturb the parameters of the clutter distribution, or even alter the clutter distribution family, which can greatly deteriorate the target detection capability. To avoid such potential performance degradation, cognitive radar systems are envisioned which are required to rapidly realize the nonstationarity, accurately learn the new characteristics of the environments, and adaptively update the detector. In this paper, aiming to develop a fully cognitive radar for target detection in nonstationary environments, we propose a unifying framework that integrates (i) change-point detection of clutter distributions by using a data-driven cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm and its extended version, (ii) learning/identification of clutter distribution by applying sparse theory and kernel density estimation methods, and (iii) adaptive target detection by automatically modifying the likelihood-ratio test and corresponding detection threshold. Further, with extensive numerical examples, we demonstrate the achieved improvements in detection performance due to the proposed framework in comparison to a nonadaptive case, an adaptive matched filter (AMF) method, and the clairvoyant case. Herein, we also use Wilcoxon rank-sum tests to evaluate the statistical significance of the performance improvements

42 ENGINEERING↗

Infrastructure and Metocean Technology

<strong>Research Problem: </strong>Changes in the ocean environment (i.e., mudslides or burial from subsea currents, strong weather events or natural fluctuations) have been linked to <strong>billions of dollars of impacts</strong>. These events can have a significant effect on the <strong>success and longevity </strong>of offshore infrastructure, as well as affect <strong>safety and cost </strong>during exploration and production activities.<strong>Research Approach: (1) </strong>Determine current state of knowledge regarding hazardous metocean and bathymetric conditions, and data availability regarding these conditions and historic events. (2) EY19 -Evaluate if Ml/AI model can be developed to better identify current hazardous metocean and bathymetric conditions. (3) EY 20 + -develop, train, and test ML/AI model to identify current conditions and forecast changes and vulnerability that may impact offshore infrastructure and operations. <strong>Benefit: </strong>Improved characterization of seabed related hazards in the offshore environment will help to manage and minimize costs and risks during drilling and production operations, and help prevent catastrophic incidents.

Duran, Rodrigo↗

Removal of trace gases can both increase and decrease cloud droplet formation

Aerosols consist of liquid or solid particles dispersed in a gas. Aerosol measurements generally rely on drying the particles before quantifying their physicochemical properties. This drying can potentially remove semivolatile compounds from the particles. Here, we show size-resolved cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) measurements quantifying the hygroscopicity parameter in the presence and absence of a denuder. The denuder efficiently removed alkanes and weakly functionalized acids, aldehydes, and alcohols with fewer than 10 carbon atoms from the gas phase. Denuding organic compounds perturbed the CCN-derived hygroscopicity parameter by up to 50%. Denuding either rendered the particles more or less CCN active, and the direction of the effect depended on sample relative humidity and trace gas concentration. The effect was weakest in early spring and strongest in late spring and summer. The measurements demonstrate an unexpectedly strong coupling between the particle and gas phase, influencing CCN activity through either volatilization or surface adsorption, or both.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanistic understanding of speciated oxide growth in high entropy alloys

Abstract Complex multi-element alloys are gaining prominence for structural applications, supplementing steels, and superalloys. Understanding the impact of each element on alloy surfaces due to oxidation is vital in maintaining material integrity. This study investigates oxidation mechanisms in these alloys using a model five-element equiatomic CoCrFeNiMn alloy, in a controlled oxygen environment. The oxidation-induced surface changes correlate with each element’s interactive tendencies with the environment, guided by thermodynamics. Initial oxidation stages follow atomic size and redox potential, with the latter becoming dominant over time, causing composition inversion. The study employs in-situ atom probe tomography, transmission electron microscopy, and X-ray absorption near-edge structure techniques to elucidate the oxidation process and surface oxide structure evolution. Our findings deconvolute the mechanism for compositional and structural changes in the oxide film and will pave the way for a predictive design of complex alloys with improved resistance to oxidation under extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Packages in KAC (2021 Status Report)

Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples following accelerated aging for up to 16 years. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 and non3013 containers in storage from 15 years to 20 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 20 years in storage using degradation models developed previously. The updated degradation models developed in this report have been compared to the assumptions in these calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, radial thermal conductivity, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. The axial thermal conductivity degradation rate slightly exceeds calculations estimate of 0.5% per year between 130 and 160 °F. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are extreme. However, these relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or would be postulated only as upset conditions that would not likely persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 ºF, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 20 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 20 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of nonconforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC (2022 Status Report)

Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples following accelerated aging for up to 17 years. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 °F (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 containers in storage from 20 years to 40 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 40 years in storage using degradation models developed previously. Due to differences in containers, 9975 packages with non-3013 containers are only approved for 20 years of storage. The updated degradation models developed in this report have been compared to the assumptions in those calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, radial thermal conductivity, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. The axial thermal conductivity degradation rate slightly exceeds calculations estimate of 0.5% per year between 130 and 160 °F. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are extreme. However, these relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or would be postulated only as upset conditions that would not likely persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 °F, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 40 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 40 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of non-conforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

2023 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 18 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗