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At least 343 records · Page 19

Quantifying the Relationship Between Higher Photovoltaic Module Efficiency and the Adoption of Distributed Solar

The purpose of this study is understanding the relationship between module efficiency, system costs, and the economic and adoption potential of distributed rooftop solar. We use the dGen model to project the economic potential and adoption of high-efficiency photovoltaic (PV) modules across a range of efficiencies and cost scenarios in the continental United States. Our results reveal that high-efficiency modules can modestly increase the projected adoption of distributed solar, but system capital costs may play a larger role in changing the amount of projected adoption.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Energy Conversion Alternatives Study (ECAS), Westinghouse phase 1. Volume 12: Fuel cells

A parametric assessment of four fuel cell power systems -- based on phosphoric acid, potassium hydroxide, molten carbonate, and stabilized zirconia -- has shown that the most important parameters for electricity-cost reduction and/or efficiency improvement standpoints are fuel cell useful life and power density, use of a waste-heat recovery system, and fuel type. Typical capital costs, overall energy efficiencies (based on the heating value of the coal used to produce the power plant fuel), and electricity costs are: phosphoric acid $350-450/kWe, 24-29%, and 11.7 to 13.9 mills/MJ (42 to 50 mills/kWh); alkaline $450-700/kWe, 26-31%, and 12.8 to 16.9 mills/MJ (46 to 61 mills/kWh); molten carbonate $480-650/kWe, 32-46%, and 10.6 to 19.4 mills/MJ (38 to 70 mills/kWh), stabilized zirconia $420-950/kWe, 26-53%, and 9.7 to 16.9 mills/MJ (35 to 61 mills/kWh). Three types of fuel cell power plants -- solid electrolytic with steam bottoming, molten carbonate with steam bottoming, and solid electrolyte with an integrated coal gasifier -- are recommended for further study.

Warde, C. J.↗

No Need to Wait for the Clean Air Dividend

Controlling smog and soot is the classic win-win situation, so it's great that the world is finally waking up to the idea. WHAT if there was a way to simultaneously slow down climate change, save millions of lives, improve crop yields and contribute to sustainable development and energy security? It sounds too good to be true, but it is possible. It won't be free or easy, but with some effort and moderate investment, it can be done. The way to do it is to reduce emissions leading to two types of pollution: black carbon and ozone. These are the only pollutants that we know contribute to both global warming and poor air quality. Black carbon is essentially soot, emitted from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. It warms the climate in two ways: by absorbing heat in the atmosphere - similar to the greenhouse effect - and by reducing Earth's albedo, or ability to reflect sunlight. Inhaled into the lungs, it leads to cancer and cardiovascular disease. Ozone in the atmosphere also acts as a greenhouse gas, while ground-level ozone is toxic to humans and plants, so leads to both premature death and reduced crop yields. Ozone is not emitted directly but is produced by the action of sunlight on other pollutants, which are known as ozone precursors. Since black carbon and ozone are important components of soot and smog, a great deal of effort has already been put into developing methods to reduce emissions. So effective technology is available, but needs wider implementation. The recommended control measures for black carbon include widespread and tight emission standards on diesel cars and trucks; improved solid fuel cooking stoves, brick kilns and coke ovens in the developing world; and a ban on the open burning of agricultural waste. Implementation of these measures would have a rapid impact on the climate and human health, and also have the added benefit of greatly reducing emissions of carbon monoxide, an important ozone precursor. A second key ozone precursor is methane, which is also a powerful greenhouse gas in its own right. Control measures include reducing leaks from natural gas pipelines and storage tanks, and capturing it from coal, gas and oil extraction, landfills and wastewater treatment plants. Aeration of rice paddies and manure management can also reduce methane releases. Captured methane can often be sold or turned into power. In Monterrey, Mexico, for example, electricity generated from methane collected from the city landfill powers the public transportation system. So such measures can be beneficial even when ignoring the health and climate effects, as they can contribute to energy security and often pay for themselves. According to calculations by me and my colleagues, phasing in all these measures over the next 20 years would reduce global warming by about 0.5 degC in 2050, half of the projected increase between now and then (Science, vol 335, p 183). Regional benefits would be even greater, as black carbon disrupts rainfall patterns and magnifies warming and melting of snow and ice in parts of the world including the Arctic and the Himalayas. On top of the climate benefits, cutting black carbon and ozone would prevent over 3 million premature deaths from air pollution, and increase yields of staple crops by roughly 50 million tonnes a year. Improved cooking stoves would also decrease the demand for firewood in the developing world, reducing deforestation and freeing up time for those who collect wood - primarily women and children - to pursue other activities such as education. Similarly, improved brick kilns now being used in parts of Latin America and Asia require half as much fuel as traditional ones and are less time-intensive for the operators. This means that in addition to their environmental benefits, these measures can contribute to sustainable and human development. Tackling black carbon and methane is clearly a great idea, so why hasn't it been done already? There are many barriers. The upfront costs of some measures can be prohibitive even when they eventually pay for themselves. But this can be overcome by mechanisms such as international financing of capital costs. For other measures, the costs are typically borne by a few while the benefits accrue to everybody. In such cases civil society and governments must get involved. Governments are starting to act. In February, the US, Canada, Sweden, Bangladesh, Ghana and Mexico launched the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to support implementation of measures like these. This coalition will hopefully expand and achieve rapid, widespread adoption of measures to cut black carbon and ozone. While the climate benefits will be substantial, it is important to note that these measures cannot substitute for cuts in carbon dioxide. Black carbon, ozone, carbon monoxide and methane stay in the atmosphere for a fairly short time - a few days for black carbon and about a decade for methane. They thus respond quickly to emissions changes and give us substantial leverage over near-term climate change. In contrast, carbon dioxide is very long-lived and so responds slowly to emissions changes. This means that cuts have little immediate impact, but it also means they must be made now to avoid disastrous changes later on. Controlling short-lived climate pollutants is thus an issue of fairness. Much as failure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions soon would condemn future generations to disastrous change, failure to reduce near-term climate change condemns those alive today to suffer worsening effects of the sort already seen. Some wonder if we really can do both. We can, and we must.

Shindell, Drew↗

Using Information Automation and Human Technology Integration to Implement Integrated Operations for Nuclear

The purpose of the research effort described in this report is to develop and demonstrate an approach to the design and implementation of advanced, automated systems intended to increase operational efficiencies at nuclear power plants. In particular, we describe methods for considering human-technology integration (HTI) issues throughout the various phases of system design, test, and implementation and how these considerations help promote effective design. This research project will develop planning tools and comprehensive guidance on how HTI principles and methods, in combination with information automation technologies, can enable effective data integration and coordination for full nuclear plant modernization. Specifically, this research project will develop an approach to automate the mapping of data from plant systems and processes to application needs, thereby significantly reducing the amount of human workload currently required for the execution of these tasks. In addition to developing an automated solution as a replacement for these tasks, this research will also analyze digitalization’s effectiveness in reducing operational costs of compliance related activities. Compliance activities are estimated to account for as much as 50% of operations and maintenance (i.e., non-fuel and non-capital) costs of plant operation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Achieving gigawatt-scale green hydrogen production and seasonal storage at industrial locations across the U.S

Onsite production of gigawatt-scale wind- and solar-sourced hydrogen (H 2 ) at industrial locations depends on the ability to store and deliver otherwise-curtailed H 2 during times of power shortages. Thousands of tonnes of H 2 will require storage in regions where subsurface storage is scarce, which may only be possible using liquid organic H 2 carriers. We evaluate aboveground system with a focus on providing technical insights into toluene/methylcyclohexane (TOL/MCH) storage systems in locations suitable for gigawatt-scale wind- and solar-powered electrolyzer systems in the United States. Here we show that the levelized cost of storage, at a national median of US dollar $1.84/kg-H 2 is spatially heterogeneous, causing minor impact on the cost of H 2 supply in the Midwest, and significant impact in Central California and the Southeast. While TOL/MCH may be the cheapest aboveground bulk storage solution evaluated, upfront capital costs, modest energy efficiency, reliance on critical materials and pre-sulfided catalysts, and greenhouse gas emissions from heating are opportunities for further development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

Impacts of turbine and plant upsizing on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind

Turbine and plant upsizing are major trends in offshore wind deployment, although the quantitative impact on project costs has not been well-characterized. The uncertain value of continued wind turbine and project growth limits the ability of the supply chain to prepare for future technology trends, leading to challenges in the realization of larger projects. This analysis explores the levelized cost of energy impacts of turbine ratings between 6 and 20 MW and plant capacities between 250 and 2,500 MW for fixed-bottom offshore wind using techno-economic cost models for foundation, electrical, installation, and operation and maintenance costs, along with annual energy production. We consider a nominal set of technology assumptions for all scenarios to isolate economies of size and scale without additional benefits from decreasing turbine capital costs, quantity discounts for larger projects, or optimized technology solutions. These results indicate that using a 20-MW wind turbine in a 2,500-MW power plant array can reduce the levelized cost of energy by over 23% relative to the global average turbine and plant size installed in 2019; primarily because of reductions in the balance-of-system and operation and maintenance costs. We also identify improved installation vessels, optimized export systems, and novel operation and maintenance strategies as additional cost reduction opportunities. These results suggest that upsizing represents a significant cost reduction opportunity for offshore wind energy and will continue to be a main factor in shaping the future of the sector.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Incorporating corrosion design constraints in desalination process optimization: A case study in mechanical vapor compression

Corrosion is an expensive and complex challenge for desalination, yet current design approaches do not explicitly account for corrosion mechanisms in process modeling and technoeconomic analysis. Here, to address this gap, we present a workflow for incorporating corrosion design constraints directly into desalination process optimization models. We develop surrogate models for general and localized corrosion metrics as functions of temperature, pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and material using data from OLI Systems’ Corrosion Analyzer. We then integrate these surrogates as corrosion design constraints in a cost-optimization MVC model that minimizes the levelized cost of water (LCOW). For a case study of mechanical vapor compression (MVC) treating seawater across a range of recoveries, we find dissolved oxygen (DO) is the dominant driver of localized corrosion, and thus of cost-optimal material choice and operating conditions. Reducing the DO from 8 mg/L to 0.5 mg/L reduces the LCOW by 15-35%, informing the breakeven costs for implementing DO removal or selecting highly corrosion-resistant alloys. This framework is broadly applicable across corrosion types, materials, and components and enables desalination process design that minimizes capital costs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Impacts of Price Formation Efforts Considering High Renewable Penetration Levels and System Resource Adequacy Targets

Future markets with very high penetrations of renewable energy could have many low- to zero-cost periods, which would reduce energy revenues for the generation fleet. This can impact the ability of resources that are needed for long-term reliability to recover operating and capital costs. This paper explores the impact of an alternative pricing mechanism, relaxed minimum pricing, on revenue sufficiency on existing and future resource mixes, including those with high penetrations of wind and solar. This study evaluates eight scenarios encompassing three different sensitivity categories: (1) one alternative pricing mechanism versus traditional LMP pricing, (2) high versus low renewable penetration levels, and (3) using a resource mix that has been adjusted to a preset resource adequacy target versus one that contains a full set of resources. Results show renewable penetration has a greater impact on pricing and resulting profits than does the adjusted resource mix, the two pricing methods have modest variations in profits, and prices under the higher renewable penetration case were higher than under low renewable penetration. These conclusions are not intended to be direct predictions for future outcomes but rather to lead to additional research on the impacts of pricing on investment incentives and future resource adequacy targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An analytical method for identifying synergies between behind-the-meter battery and thermal energy storage

Electric utilities build generation capacity to meet the highest demand period, and they often pass on the costs associated with these peaking generators to building owners through demand charges. Building owners can minimize these demand charges by shifting energy use away from peak periods with behind-the-meter storage. This storage can include batteries, which can directly shift the metered load, or thermal energy storage, which can shift thermal-driven electric loads like air conditioning. However, there is a lack of research on how best to combine battery and thermal energy storage. In this study, we develop an analytical sizing method to calculate the potential demand reduction and annualized cost savings for different combinations of thermal and battery energy storage sizes. We show that adding batteries to a thermal energy storage system can increase the total system's load shaving potential. This is particularly true when the building has onsite photovoltaic generation or electric vehicle charging, which add significant variability to the load shape. We also show that for a given total storage size, selecting a higher fraction of thermal energy storage can significantly lower the cycling of the battery, and therefore extend the battery life. This, combined with the expected lower first cost of thermal energy storage materials compared to batteries, shows that hybrid energy storage systems can outperform a standalone battery or standalone thermal storage system. Assuming the thermal storage has a capital cost 6x lower than the battery, our analysis shows that the optimal system is 71% thermal energy storage and 29% battery energy storage for a scenario with electric vehicle charging. The annualized cost savings for this system are $48.6 k/yr, whereas an equivalently sized standalone thermal energy storage system would provide annualized cost savings of $28.5 k/yr and a standalone battery would lead to savings of $8.72 k/yr. The hybrid system also reduces battery cycling by 52% compared to a standalone battery, extending battery lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Hydrogen Production Cost with Alkaline Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis was performed to assess the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) produced using state-of-the-art Liquid Alkaline (LA) electrolysis. Projected high-volume, untaxed levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) range from 2020US $\$ 1.84$ to $\$ 2.88$/kg-H 2 depending on technology year, process design, and electrolyzer project scale, assuming an electricity price of $\$ 0.03$/kWh. The total installed capital cost for a LA electrolysis plant was estimated from bottom-up stack and installed cost models that account for purchased equipment, installation costs, site preparation, and general overhead costs. For this study, the LA electrolysis plant is assumed to be a stick-built, greenfield project developed by an EPC firm with electrolysis stacks purchased directly from an electrolysis stack manufacturer. The price of the electrolysis stacks is based on a bottom-up cost assessment with business markup for the electrolysis company fabricator. Methods from the Hydrogen Analysis (H 2 A) production model, a peer-reviewed national laboratory-developed discounted cash flow model, were used to calculate the LCOH production in 2020$/kg-H 2 . The baseline electricity price case ($\$ 0.03$/kWh) corresponds to average wholesale electricity prices currently possible in U.S. markets with plentiful wind. Similar low-cost electricity pricing is possible from solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) although these prices are typically limited by renewable energy capacity factors.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Large-Scale Hydrogen Production from Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell Systems

The objective of this study is to establish a detailed techno-economic analysis to assess the effectiveness of incremental technology improvements needed for solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) technology to achieve the U.S. DOE’s Hydrogen Shot goal of hydrogen production at less than $1 per kilogram. The pathway considers incremental technology improvements to key system parameters, with system performance and cost assessed for each pathway step. Briefly, the steps include cell voltage degradation rate improvements, operational current density increases, operating temperature reduction, improved steam utilization, increased system capacity factor, and reduced cell/stack capital costs. Each step is assessed at both atmospheric and pressurized (8 bar) operating conditions. To supplement assessment at each of these discrete stepwise improvements, sensitivity studies are conducted to understand the relative impact of each parameter and identify avenues for additional cost reductions. System efficiency and levelized costs of hydrogen (LCOH) for each case are presented. For the end-of-pathway case, which includes all the incremental research and development improvements, the cost of hydrogen produced is reduced by 50 percent from the state-of-the-art case.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Membrane-based Carbon Capture Process Optimization using CFD Modeling

Carbon capture is a promising option to mitigate CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants, cement and steel industries, and petrochemical complexes. Among the available technologies, membrane-based carbon capture presents the lowest energy consumption, operating costs, and carbon footprint. In addition, membrane processes have important operational flexibility and response times. On the other hand, the major challenges to widespread application of this technology are related to reducing capital costs and improving membrane stability and durability. To upscale the technology into stacked flat sheet configurations, high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) that describes the separation process accurately are required. High fidelity simulations have been shown to be effective in studying the complex transport phenomena in membrane systems. In addition, obtaining high CO2 recovery percentages and product purity re-quires a multi-stage membrane process, where the optimal network configuration of the mem-brane modules must be studied in a systematic way. In order to address the design problem at process scale, we formulate a superstructure for the membrane-based carbon capture, including up to three separation stages. In the formulation of the optimization problem, we include reduced models, based on rigorous CFD simulations of the membrane modules.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗

Membrane-based carbon capture process optimization using CFD modeling

Carbon capture is a promising option to mitigate CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants, cement and steel industries, and petrochemical complexes. Among the available technologies, membrane-based carbon capture presents the lowest energy consumption, operating costs, and carbon footprint. In addition, membrane processes have important operational flexibility and response times. On the other hand, the major challenges to widespread application of this technology are related to reducing capital costs and improving membrane stability and durability. To upscale the technology into stacked flat sheet configurations, high fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) that describes the separation process accurately are required. High fidelity simulations have been shown to be effective in studying the complex transport phenomena in membrane systems. In addition, obtaining high CO2 recovery percentages and product purity requires a multi-stage membrane process, where the optimal network configuration of the membrane modules must be studied in a systematic way. In order to address the design problem at process scale, we formulate a superstructure for the membrane-based carbon capture, including up to three separation stages. In the formulation of the optimization problem, we include reduced models, based on rigorous CFD simulations of the membrane modules. Numerical results indicate that the optimal design includes three membrane stages, and the capture cost is 45.4 $/t-CO2.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗

Potential Early Markets for Fusion Energy

We examine potential early markets for fusion energy and their projected cost targets, based on analysis and synthesis of many relevant, recent studies and reports. Seeking to provide guidance to ambitious fusion developers aspiring to enable commercial deployment before 2040, we examine cost requirements for fusion-generated electricity, process heat, and hydrogen production based on today’s market prices but with various adjustments relating to possible scenarios in 2035, such as ‘‘business-as-usual,’’ high renewables penetration, and carbon pricing up to 100 $/tCO 2 . Key findings are that fusion developers should consider focusing initially on high-priced global electricity markets and consider including integrated thermal storage, depending on techno-economic factors, in order to maximize revenue and compete in markets with high renewables penetration. Process heat and hydrogen production will be tough early markets for fusion, but may open up to fusion as markets evolve and if fusion’s levelized cost of electricity falls below 50 $/MWh e . Finally, we discuss potential ways for a fusion plant to increase revenue via cogeneration (e.g., desalination, direct air capture, or district heating) and to lower capital costs (e.g., by minimizing construction times and interest or by retrofitting coal plants).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Levelized cost of charging of extreme fast charging with stationary LMO/LTO batteries

Extreme DC fast charging for electric vehicles (EVs) could be competitive with the internal combustion engine refueling experience and enable longer-distance travel, which could help with EV adoption and decarbonization, but these systems have high capital costs and extremely variable high-power demands. Behind-the-meter systems (BTMS) could support extreme-fast-charging (XFC) stations to increase nationwide adoption of EVs. Here, this study examines the optimal break-even levelized cost of charging (LCOC) across 96 BTMS scenarios to enable low-wait XFC stations providing 200 miles of charge in 10 min. This research simulates LCOC via synthetic XFC-capable EV loads, machine-learned battery life models from testing data, and nonlinear optimal controls, co-minimizing complex utility costs and battery replacements. An aggregate optimal BTMS design treating each EV load as equal likely gives an optimal LCOC per utility rate, the average of which is $\$$0.59/kWh. In addition, the sensitivity of optimal and off-optimal design factors, the long-life LMO/LTO chemistry, and optimized controls are analyzed. The battery control model, based on battery stressors to compare chemistries, optimizes LMO/LTO resting state of charge and cycle depth without compromising cost reduction, which enables greater flexibility in operation. The LCOC savings due to replacement reduction are small, up to $\$$0.035/kWh (6%), with an average of $\$$0.02/kWh (3.5%). Compared with gasoline stations, the aggregate XFC station design achieves comparable speed, experience of service, and cost at $\$$3.81/gal gasoline, showing that EVs can replace gasoline vehicles even for longer-distance travel.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Site Ambient Temperatures and Operating Schedules for EIC - Utility CW Considerations

The heat dissipated by the EIC accelerator system and components is ultimately removed by the conventional water-cooling systems that will be ultimately dissipated the waste heat to the atmosphere. An estimated 45 MW of heat will be dissipated to water during full beam operation and that will need to be effectively rejected to the atmosphere. Approximately 50% of the heat is required to be rejected to a low temperature heat sink that cannot be achieved by an evaporative cooling tower during summer. To operate during these summer months, a secondary chilled water refrigeration system will be required that would increase the cost of the cooling water system. Further, operating chiller compressor in the summer months will increase the energy consumption of the machine. This analysis is being prepared to evaluate the impact on operating and capital costs on the cooling system for various summer operating schedules while utilizing the most cost-effective scenario of an evaporative cooling system. The technology selection for the various heat sinks is addressed in a separate write-up and are not expected to change the conclusions of this write-up.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗