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DOE OSTI2024

The Impact of Lithium Anode Interface on Capacity Fade in Polymer Electrolyte-Based Solid-State Batteries

This study investigates the Li stripping-plating morphology and failure mechanisms in full cells consisting of a solid polymer electrolyte (SPE) with two commercial Li anodes: Li chip and Li foil. The primary identified failure mechanism of the SPE cell is capacity fade, regardless of the Li manufacturer. While the cathode’s role in capacity fade is evident, the Li anode significantly influences cycling performance, with Li foil cells cycling 50% longer than Li chip cells, a statistical difference. Further, post-mortem scanning electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy results attribute the Li chip’s faster capacity fade to a loss of contact and continuous growth of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). Conversely, Li foil maintains consistent contact with the solid polymer, displaying a thin and stable SEI. Additionally, failure mechanisms between a gel electrolyte in previous work and the dry SPE are compared.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anisotropic magnetic and transport properties of orthorhombic o-Pr 2 Co 3 Ge 5

Abstract The crystal structure, electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS), heat capacity, and anisotropic magnetic and resistivity measurements are reported for Sn flux grown single crystals of orthorhombic Pr 2 Co 3 Ge 5 (U 2 Co 3 Si 5 -type, Ibam ). Our findings show that o -Pr 2 Co 3 Ge 5 hosts nearly trivalent Pr ions, as evidenced by EELS and fits to temperature dependent magnetic susceptibility measurements. Complex magnetic ordering with a partially spin-polarized state emerges near T sp = 32 K, with a spin reconfiguration transition near T M = 15 K. Heat capacity measurements show that the phase transitions appear as broad peaks in the vicinity of T sp and T M . The magnetic entropy further reveals that crystal electric field splitting lifts the Hund’s rule degeneracy at low temperatures. Taken together, these measurements show that Pr 2 Co 3 Ge 5 is an environment for complex f state magnetism with potential strongly correlated electron states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electrochemical Formation of Li-M-(M')-Si Phases Using Multivalent Electrolyte Salt Additives

Lithium-rich silicides (Li 15 Si 4 ), formed during the electrochemical lithiation of silicon, show high reactivity with electrolyte components that contribute to capacity decay, formal lithium loss, and low coulombic efficiency. Recently, the reactivity of lithium silicides was found to be suppressed by substituting a multivalent cation (i.e. Mg, Ca) for lithium that results in the room temperature formation of a ternary Li-M-Si phase. In this study, we explored a range of multivalent electrolyte salt additives (M = Ni, Cu, La, Ce, Sr, Ba, and Ca-Mg mixed salt) in a lithium-ion cell configuration and identified a room temperature electrochemical route to the formation of new ternary and quaternary lithium silicides. Using this method, both nickel and copper salts were found to plate onto the silicon electrode surface upon lithiation. Further, based on refined synchrotron XRD data, multivalent cations with an ionic radius similar to Na (~1.03 Å) or smaller can be inserted electrochemically into a formally cation-deficient Li 15 Si 4 host lattice to form new ternary (or quartenary) phases. The electrochemical synthesis of a new quaternary Li-M-M’-Si phase represents a facile route to preparing and scaling materials isostructural to the Heusler phase and electron-precise Li 14 MgSi 4 phase that results in enhanced cycling and calendar life performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Redox-Active Molecules in Alkylammonium Halide-Based Eutectic Solvents for Redox Flow Batteries

Redox flow batteries (RFBs) are promising for large-scale energy storage, however, advancements in performance and cost-effectiveness are critical factors for adoption. Here we report on alkylammonium halide based eutectic solvents (ESs) and found that a ESs comprising of diethylammonium chloride or bromide, in ethylene glycol demonstrated exceptional stability and a wide electrochemical stability window, making it a promising candidate for RFB applications. The electrochemical stability and redox behavior of the alkylammonium halide-based ESs are significantly influenced by hydrogen-bonding interactions, modulated by the alkyl chain length of the cation and the nature of the anion. A redox-active eutectic electrolyte containing 0.45 M methyl viologen dichloride (MV 2+ ) paired with acetylferrocene exhibited reversible redox behavior with a maximum open-circuit voltage of ∼1.34 V. The first redox couple, representing the viologen dication to radical cation transition, exhibited remarkable stability with consistent performance, achieving an energy efficiency near 70% at charge-discharge current densities of 10 mA cm −2 over 160 cycles with about 3% loss of the initial capacity. This study highlights the potential of alkylammonium halide DES systems for implementing eutectic-based RFB technologies in the future.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydroxide Exchange Membrane Carbon Capture (HEMCC) Using Nickel Hydroxide Batteries and Flow-through Membranes

Proposed is an electrochemical nickel hydroxide based hydroxide exchange membrane carbon capture (HEMCC) device for Direct Air Capture (DAC) of CO2. DAC has been identified as one of the key net negative carbon technologies to achieve net zero carbon emissions. Net negative carbon technologies are required to offset continued emissions from dilute CO2 sources such as agriculture and construction. The majority of current DAC technologies at scale (>1 KT∙yr-1) are adsorbent based technologies with significant energy cost. The traditional DAC energy cost is primarily driven by the temperature swing required to regenerate the sorbent and has been shown to be 1.8 MWh·ton-1 at the system level. Electrochemical pH swing devices are a growing research area for carbon capture devices with the goal of lowering the energy cost required for DAC. A pH gradient is built by generating OH- at the cathode and consuming OH- at the anode. An acid-base equilibrium with CO2 allows for the capture of CO2 at the cathode and release at the anode. This extends from other electrochemical CO2 capture devices based on pKa shifts of an electrochemically active organic species allowing for the capture and release of CO2. Electrochemical CO2 capture is considered promising based on potentially low energy costs to capture CO2 in comparison with current temperature swing adsorption technologies. This work explores Ni(OH)2 electrodes to produce the pH gradient for CO2 capture and release. At the cathode NiOOH is reduced to Ni(OH)2 while at the anode Ni(OH)2 is oxidized to NiOOH. The symmetrical electrodes allow for a low voltage requirement; the thermodynamic potential difference of standard electrochemical reactions is zero. Most of the voltage observed is to produce the pH gradient with the remainder driving the polarization of the electrodes. There is a resistance component as well, but this is small in comparison due to the low current densities used in the device, nominally 2 mA·cm-1. Two similar devices are presented, a traditional MEA (membrane electrode assembly) and a flow-through MEA. The traditional MEA separates the two Ni(OH)2 electrodes with an 80μm Piperion® membrane. While the flow-through membrane separates the electrodes with a three piece membrane consisting of two 80μm Piperion® membranes with a porous membrane between them. In the traditional MEA system air is passed over the cathode for capture, while the flow-through MEA the air is passed through the porous membrane isolated from the electrodes. The traditional MEA has been used to establish a baseline performance of the device and has been shown to capture CO2 at an energy cost of 1 MWh·ton-1 at the device level. An understanding has been built around the components of that energy cost including the relationship of flux to current density, effect of a regeneration process, transient battery behavior, and gas losses coinciding with changing the polarization of the batteries. The flow-through MEA looks to address of transient battery behavior and gas losses. It allows for denser, higher capacity electrodes, which can lean on traditional Ni-MH battery technology used in alkaline batteries used today. The higher capacities, limit the transient battery effect on flux in the device. Gas losses are addressed by having a continuous inlet air stream to the device and continuous outlet product.

Buchen, James↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Microbial Communities as Indicators of Microbially Induced Corrosion Potential in Stainless Steel Piping

The 200 West Area Pump-and-Treat (200W P&T) facility is part of the final remedy decision for the 200 ZP-1 Operable Unit (OU) and is the interim remedial action for 200-UP-1 OU at the Hanford Site. The facility also treats water from other sources across the site, including 200-DV-1 OU perched water, groundwater from the 200-BP-5 OU, and leachate from the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility. The facility originally operated a biological treatment process for nitrate that resulted in systemic biofouling and loss of injection well capacity, requiring frequent and costly well rehabilitation. Biofouling has also contributed to corrosion of welds and pitting of stainless-steel piping at the facility. The biological treatment for nitrate was suspended at the end of 2019 calendar year to eliminate negative impacts from biological treatments which improve facility operations and treatment of carbon tetrachloride. Evaluation of the 200W P&T facility’s response to operational improvements, specifically the suspension of the biological treatment, provides information on the potential for continued microbially induced corrosion (MIC). To this end, historical data sets (2015-2017) were compared with molecular biological analyses of 200W P&T water samples from 2018-2020 to quantify trends in total microbial biomass and specific microbial indicator species (iron, sulfate, nitrate, and manganese reducing bacteria) known to cause and enhance metal corrosion. Results showed unequivocal reductions (in excess of 90%) in all microbiological indicators measured following the suspension of the biological treatment. Although abundance measurements for all corrosive MIC populations initially declined after removal of the treatment system, nitrate-reducing bacteria (nirK) and sulfate-reducing bacteria remain highly abundant in the system, an order of magnitude higher than the number of cells present prior to the removal of the biological treatment system [5.14e (1.4) cells/L, vs. 1.14e (0.07) cells/L, reported as average (±SD) for n=3]. In addition, there was an unexpected inflection point in 2019 where all microbial indicators increased unexpectedly in abundance in 2020 by as much as two orders of magnitude compared to 2019 samples. Given the limited number of water samples available for this analysis, the cause of the increase in microbial indicators post-biological treatment has not yet been determined. Systematic sampling of the facility for continued monitoring is recommended so that the responses of MIC populations can be evaluated to ensure that further corrosion is avoided, allowing the 200W P&T facility to operate safely and efficiently at design capacity.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Generation Plant Cost of Operations and Cycling Optimization Model (Final Technical Report)

Modern coal plants are a masterpiece of engineering, having been refined and improved over more than a century. As they evolved, they have grown more efficient and cleaner. At the same time, they have grown much larger and increasingly designed to operate on very specific fuels at or near the maximum capacity, providing baseload power. In recent decades, however, they have been called on to operate at reduced capacity (cycled) at a loss of efficiency and possibly accelerated wear and tear. The purpose of this project was to develop a model to accurately estimate the cost of cycling large coal plants so that they can be operated efficiently as part of a comprehensive strategy for generation planning and dispatch. The final goal is a model which is commercial-ready that can be “tuned” to different plants for widespread use.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

A high reliability battery management system

Over a period of some 5 years Canadian Astronautics Limited (CAL) has developed a system to autonomously manage, and thus prolong the life of, secondary storage batteries. During the development, the system was aimed at the space vehicle application using nickel cadmium batteries, but is expected to be able to enhance the life and performance of any rechargeable electrochemical couple. The system handles the cells of a battery individually and thus avoids the problems of over, and under, drive that inevitably occur in a battery of cells managed by an averaging system. This individual handling also allow cells to be totally bypassed in the event of failure, thus avoiding the losses associated with low capacity, partial short circuit, and the catastrophe of open circuit. The system has an optional capability of managing redundant batteries simultaneously, adding the advantage of on line reconditioning of one battery, while the other maintains the energy storage capability of the overall system. As developed, the system contains a dedicated, redundant, microprocessor, but the capability exists to have this computing capability time shared, or remote, and operating through a data link. As adjuncts to the basic management system CAL has developed high efficiency, polyphase, power regulators for charge and discharge power conditioning.

Moody, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Traffic placement policies for a multi-band network

Recently protocols were introduced that enable the integration of synchronous traffic (voice or video) and asynchronous traffic (data) and extend the size of local area networks without loss in speed or capacity. One of these is DRAMA, a multiband protocol based on broadband technology. It provides dynamic allocation of bandwidth among clusters of nodes in the total network. A number of traffic placement policies for such networks are proposed and evaluated. Metrics used for performance evaluation include average network access delay, degree of fairness of access among the nodes, and network throughput. The feasibility of the DRAMA protocol is established through simulation studies. DRAMA provides effective integration of synchronous and asychronous traffic due to its ability to separate traffic types. Under the suggested traffic placement policies, the DRAMA protocol is shown to handle diverse loads, mixes of traffic types, and numbers of nodes, as well as modifications to the network structure and momentary traffic overloads.

Maly, Kurt J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Experimental investigation of freezing blowby in a copper/water heat pipe

An experimental investigation designed to evaluate and better define the overall characteristics of freezing blowby in a copper/water heat pipe was conducted. The results from various rates of restart heat addition and channel blockage, indicate that upon breakthrough the depressurization of the evaporator may result in an effective heat transport capacity far in excess of the steady-state transport limit. The resulting transient conditions imposed on the heat pipe by the effective increased heat transport capacity can cause a loss of liquid in the evaporator and potential dryout. Evidence is presented which indicates that in order to prevent either temporary or permanent dryout, sufficient liquid inventory must be present in the evaporator wicking structure to accommodate the increased transient thermal load and allow sufficient time for the capillary wicking structure to reprime.

Ochterbeck, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Micro-Mechanical Modeling of Ductile Fracture in Welded Aluminum-Lithium Alloys

This study describes a 3-D computational framework to model stable extension of a macroscopic crack under mode I conditions in ductile metals. Material separation occurs through a local fracture mechanism based on the growth and coalescence of micro voids dispersed in the material. The Gurson-Tvergaard plasticity model for void materials describes the eventual loss of material stress capacity under sustained loading. Fixed-sized computational cell elements defined on a thin layer adjacent to the crack plane provide an implicit length scale for continuum damage model. Outside this layer, the material remains undamaged by void growth, consistent with metallurgical observations. The key micro-mechanics parameters are D, the thickness of cell layer, and f 0 , the initial cell porosity.

Ahmed Ibrahim↗

NASA NTRS2009

Fluoroester Co-Solvents for Low-Temperature Li+ Cells

Electrolytes comprising LiPF6 dissolved in alkyl carbonate/fluoroester mixtures have been found to afford improved low-temperature performance and greater high-temperature resilience in rechargeable lithium-ion electrochemical cells. These and other electrolytes comprising lithium salts dissolved mixtures of esters have been studied in continuing research directed toward extending the lower limit of operating temperatures of such cells. This research at earlier stages, and the underlying physical and chemical principles, were reported in numerous previous NASA Tech Briefs articles. The purpose of the present focus on high-temperature resilience in addition to low-temperature performance is to address issues posed by the flammability of the esters and, at temperatures near the upper end (about 55 C) of their intended operating temperature range, by their high chemical reactivity. As used here, high-temperature resilience signifies, loosely, a desired combination of low flammability of an electrolyte mixture and the ability of a cell that contains the mixture to sustain a relatively small loss of reversible charge/discharge capacity during storage in the fully charged condition at high temperature. The selection of fluoroesters for study as candidate electrolyte solvent components to increase high-temperature resilience was prompted in part by the observation that like other halogenated compounds, fluoroesters have low flammability. The fluoroesters investigated in this study include trifluoroethyl butyrate (TFEB), ethyl trifluoroacetate (ETFA), trifluoroethyl acetate (TFEA), and methyl pentafluoropropionate (MPFP). Solvent mixtures were prepared by mixing these fluoroesters with two other esters: ethylene carbonate (EC) and ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC).

Smart, Marshall↗

NASA NTRS2012

Quantum Limits of Space-to-Ground Optical Communications

For a pure loss channel, the ultimate capacity can be achieved with classical coherent states (i.e., ideal laser light): (1) Capacity-achieving receiver (measurement) is yet to be determined. (2) Heterodyne detection approaches the ultimate capacity at high mean photon numbers. (3) Photon-counting approaches the ultimate capacity at low mean photon numbers. A number of current technology limits drive the achievable performance of free-space communication links. Approaching fundamental limits in the bandwidth-limited regime: (1) Heterodyne detection with high-order coherent-state modulation approaches ultimate limits. SOA improvements to laser phase noise, adaptive optics systems for atmospheric transmission would help. (2) High-order intensity modulation and photon-counting can approach heterodyne detection within approximately a factor of 2. This may have advantages over coherent detection in the presence of turbulence. Approaching fundamental limits in the photon-limited regime (1) Low-duty cycle binary coherent-state modulation (OOK, PPM) approaches ultimate limits. SOA improvements to laser extinction ratio, receiver dark noise, jitter, and blocking would help. (2) In some link geometries (near field links) number-state transmission could improve over coherent-state transmission

laser communications↗

NASA NTRS2012

Electrolytes for Use in High Energy Lithium-ion Batteries with Wide Operating Temperature Range

Met programmatic milestones for program. Demonstrated improved performance with wide operating temperature electrolytes containing ester co-solvents (i.e., methyl butyrate) containing electrolyte additives in A123 prototype cells: Previously demonstrated excellent low temperature performance, including 11C rates at -30 C and the ability to perform well down to -60 C. Excellent cycle life at room temperature has been displayed, with over 5,000 cycles being demonstrated. Good high temperature cycle life performance has also been achieved. Demonstrated improved performance with methyl propionate-containing electrolytes in large capacity prototype cells: Demonstrated the wide operating temperature range capability in large cells (12 Ah), successfully scaling up technology from 0.25 Ah size cells. Demonstrated improved performance at low temperature and good cycle life at 40 C with methyl propionate-based electrolyte containing increasing FEC content and the use of LiBOB as an additive. Utilized three-electrode cells to investigate the electrochemical characteristics of high voltage systems coupled with wide operating temperature range electrolytes: From Tafel polarization measurements on each electrode, it is evident the NMC-based cathode displays poor lithium kinetics (being the limiting electrode). The MB-based formulations containing LiBOB delivered the best rate capability at low temperature, which is attributed to improved cathode kinetics. Whereas, the use of lithium oxalate as an additive lead to the highest reversible capacity and lower irreversible losses.

low temperature batteries↗

NASA NTRS2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scalable preparation of oxygen carriers for chemical looping

Wet impregnation of active metal precursors into porous substrates, together with selective adsorption of the precursors on the pore surfaces, enables transition metal oxides derived from the precursors to disperse throughout the substrate, even at the nanoscale, without increased sintering or agglomeration, thereby forming oxygen carriers suitable for chemical looping. The porous substrate can be an oxide, for example SiO 2 . The oxygen carriers can comprise relatively large oxide loadings of over about 20 wt % and exhibit high reactivity over many regeneration cycles with substantially no loss in oxygen transport capacity or decrease in kinetics. The use of multiple transition metal oxides, for example NiO in addition to CuO, can greatly enhance chemical looping performance.

O′Malley, Kyle↗

DOE OSTI2023

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗