Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “bayes methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19

The advanced microwave precipitation radiometer: A new aircraft radiometer for passive precipitation remote sensing

Past studies of passive microwave measurements of precipitating systems have yielded broad empirical relationships between hydrometeors and microwave transmission. In general, these relationships fall into two categories of passive microwave precipitation retrievals rely upon the observed effect of liquid precipitation to increase the brightness temperature of a radiometrically cold background such as an ocean surface. A scattering-based method is based upon the effect that frozen hydrometeors tend to decrease the brightness temperature of a radiometrically warm background such as land. One step toward developing quantitative brightness temperature-rain rate relationships is the recent construction of a new aircraft instrument sponsored by National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC). This instrument is the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) designed and built by Georgia Tech Research Institute to fly aboard high altitude research aircraft such as the NASA ER-2. The AMPR and its accompanying data acquisition system are mounted in the Q-bay compartment of the NASA ER-2.

Hood, Robbie E.↗

Spacesuit guidebook

This guidebook is designed to supplement the Spacesuit wall chart (WAL-114) published by the Education Affairs Division, January 1990. The wall chart depicts Astronaut Bruce McCandless on his historic first untethered spacewalk using the manned maneuvering unit. He flew on Shuttle mission 41-B, and ventured 100 meters for the Shuttle's cargo bay and returned safely. This guidebook explains in depth the elements depicted on the wall chart in see-through and cut-away perspectives. Together the wall chart and guidebook show as well as explain the inside workings of the spacesuit and its various components. Forty separate elements are identified with an accompanying numerical legend. Those elements are further explained in this guidebook along with their functions and how they work in relation to other elements. Additional chapters discuss essential components of the spacesuit such as the primary life support system and the manned maneuvering unit, and the method for donning the spacesuit.

Source record↗

Shuttle orbiter experiments: Use of an operational vehicle for advancement and validation of space systems design technologies

The NASA Orbiter Experiments (OEX) Program provided a mechanism for utilization of an operational space shuttle orbiter as a flight research vehicle, as an adjunct to its normal space transportation mission. OEX Program experiments were unique among orbiter payloads, as the research instrumentation for these experiments were carried as integral parts of the vehicle's structure, rather than being placed in the orbiter's payload bay as mission-unique cargo. On each of its first 17 flights, the Orbiter Columbia carried some type of research instrumentation. Various instrumentation systems were used to measure, in flight, the requisite parameters for determination of the orbiter aerodynamic characteristics over the entire entry flight regime and/or the aerodynamic-heating rates imposed upon the vehicle during the hypersonic portion of atmospheric entry. The data derived from this instrumentation represent benchmark hypersonic flight data heretofore unavailable for a lifting entry vehicle. The data are being used in a continual process of validation of state-of-the-art methods, both experimental and computational, for simulating/predicting the aerodynamic and aerothermal characteristics of advanced space transportation vehicles. This paper describes the OEX Program complement of research experiments, presents typical flight data obtained by these experiments, and demonstrates the utilization of these data for advancement and validation of vehicle aerothermodynamic-design tools. By example, the concept of instrumenting operational vehicles and/or spacecraft in order to perform advanced technology development and validation is demonstrated to be an effective and economical method for maturing space-systems design technologies.

Holloway, Paul F.↗

Daily Kilometer-Scale MODIS Satellite Maps of PM2.5 Describe Wintertime Episodes

The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) suffers from severe health-endangering episodes of PM2.5 aerosol loadings in wintertime; episodes last approximately 5 days and differ in geographical distribution and composition. PM2.5 stations are scattered; consequently the use of remote sensing to map variable regional patterns of these varying respirable aerosol concentrations is desirable. High-precision AOT retrievals can capture column particulate loading. However,PM2.5 mapping is challenging due to several reasons: particularly thin mixed layers (ML) and thus relatively low aerosol optical thickness (AOT) close to current measurement limits, variable and a typical composition of the aerosols, and complex surface bidirectional reflectance. However, the West does present some advantages in analysis. Air basins are isolated from long-distance transport, and experience predominant strong meteorological subsidence. Thus these Western basin regions have fewer problematic cases of overriding aerosol layers detached from the surface. To counter such local overriding, Chu et al. have described an approach for the Eastern US, and He et al have described a synoptic classification approach useful in Shanghai. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) expands our experience with the use of AOT, with lower PM2.5 and several isolated sub-basins. We have prepared daily maps of episodes in each region. We present also a sequence of increasingly detailed statistical models, AOT initially appears to contribute little information; however, inclusion of weather information reveals its utility. Lyapustin and Wang's MultiAngle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) retrieval for AOT provided the most useful operational remote sensing information for these regions. It provides high (1-km) spatial resolution maps and a high percentage of availability. Empirical regression methods have found that random effects regression models (aka mixed effects models, ME) employing AOT provide good estimates of ground PM2.5 concentrations.Here, we attempt to extend these methods and evaluate the usefulness of AOT with greater physical analysis, based on DISCOVER-AQ4 experience.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

Development of a thermal and structural model for a NASTRAN finite-element analysis of a hypersonic wing test structure

The development of a thermal and structural model for a hypersonic wing test structure using the NASTRAN finite-element method as its primary analytical tool is described. A detailed analysis was defined to obtain the temperature and thermal stress distribution in the whole wing as well as the five upper and lower root panels. During the development of the models, it was found that the thermal application of NASTRAN and the VIEW program, used for the generation of the radiation exchange coefficients, were definicent. Although for most of these deficiencies solutions could be found, the existence of one particular deficiency in the current thermal model prevented the final computation of the temperature distributions. A SPAR analysis of a single bay of the wing, using data converted from the original NASTRAN model, indicates that local temperature-time distributions can be obtained with good agreement with the test data. The conversion of the NASTRAN thermal model into a SPAR model is recommended to meet the immediate goal of obtaining an accurate thermal stress distribution.

Lameris, J.↗

Automated Eddy Current Inspection on Space Shuttle Hardware

Over the life time of the Space Shuttle program, metal parts used for the Reusable Solid Rocket Motors (RSRMs) have been nondestructively inspected for cracks and surface breaking discontinuities using magnetic particle (steel) and penetrant methods. Although these inspections adequately screened for critical sized cracks in most regions of the hardware, it became apparent after detection of several sub-critical flaws that the processes were very dependent on operator attentiveness and training. Throughout the 1990's, eddy current inspections were added to areas that had either limited visual access or were more fracture critical. In the late 1990's. a project was initiated to upgrade NDE inspections with the overall objective of improving inspection reliability and control. An automated eddy current inspection system was installed in 2001. A figure shows one of the inspection bays with the robotic axis of the system highlighted. The system was programmed to inspect the various case, nozzle, and igniter metal components that make up an RSRM. both steel and aluminum. For the past few years, the automated inspection system has been a part of the baseline inspection process for steel components. Although the majority of the RSRM metal part inventory ts free of detectable surface flaws, a few small, sub-critical manufacturing defects have been detected with the automated system. This paper will summarize the benefits that have been realized with the current automated eddy current system, as well as the flaws that have been detected.

Hartmann, John↗

Robust calibration of non-perturbative models with history matching

We apply, for the first time, Bayes Linear Emulation and History Matching to the calibration of non-perturbative models in Monte Carlo event generators. In contrast to the usual approach of "Monte Carlo tuning", History Matching does not result in best-fit plus ellipsoidal parameter uncertainty estimates but instead identifies all parameter space regions that are consistent with data. This approach leads to a systematic and robust quantification of parametric uncertainties in the models, especially in those challenging cases where different, possibly disjoint, regions of parameter space deliver similar results, which are usually not properly treated with current methodology. We highlight the power of this method with the hadronisation models available through Sherpa : the built-in cluster fragmentation Ahadic and string fragmentation through an interface to Pythia .

Iskauskas, Andrew [Durham U. (main)] (ORCID:000000↗

Construction of Women’s All-Around Speed Skating Event Performance Prediction Model and Competition Strategy Analysis Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Introduction Accurately predicting the competitive performance of elite athletes is an essential prerequisite for formulating competitive strategies. Women’s all-around speed skating event consists of four individual subevents, and the competition system is complex and challenging to make accurate predictions on their performance. Objective The present study aims to explore the feasibility and effectiveness of machine learning algorithms for predicting the performance of women’s all-around speed skating event and provide effective training and competition strategies. Methods The data, consisting of 16 seasons of world-class women’s all-around speed skating competition results, used in the present study came from the International Skating Union (ISU). According to the competition rules, distinct features are filtered using lasso regression, and a 5,000 m race model and a medal model are built using a fivefold cross-validation method. Results The results showed that the support vector machine model was the most stable among the 5,000 m race and the medal models, with the highest AUC (0.86, 0.81, respectively). Furthermore, 3,000 m points are the main characteristic factors that decide whether an athlete can qualify for the final. The 11th lap of the 5,000 m, the second lap of the 500 m, and the fourth lap of the 1,500 m are the main characteristic factors that affect the athlete’s ability to win medals. Conclusion Compared with logistic regression, random forest, K-nearest neighbor, naive Bayes, neural network, support vector machine is a more viable algorithm to establish the performance prediction model of women’s all-around speed skating event; excellent performance in the 3,000 m event can facilitate athletes to advance to the final, and athletes with outstanding performance in the 500 m event are more likely competitive for medals.

Liu, Meng↗

Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

Uncertainty of frequency response using the fuzzy set method and on-orbit response prediction using laboratory test data to refine an analytical model are emphasized with respect to large space structures. Two aspects of the fuzzy set approach were investigated relative to its application to large structural dynamics problems: (1) minimizing the number of parameters involved in computing possible intervals; and (2) the treatment of extrema which may occur in the parameter space enclosed by all possible combinations of the important parameters of the model. Extensive printer graphics were added to the SSID code to help facilitate model verification, and an application of this code to the LaRC Ten Bay Truss is included in the appendix to illustrate this graphics capability.

Hasselman, T. K.↗

Crustal deformation measurements in central Japan determined by a Global Positioning System fixed-point network

Results are presented from temporally dense measurements of crustal deformation associated with the convergence of the Eurasian (EUR), Pacific, North American, and Philippine Sea (PHS) plates, carried out in April 1988 by a 10-station GPS fixed-point network established in central Japan. Using regional orbit relaxation methods, the analysis of the first 17-month data revealed significant horizontal deformation across the Suruga trough. Namely, it was found that a site in the northern tip of PHS plate moved nearly westward with a velocity of 28 +/-5 mm per year, and a site at the southeastern tip of EUR plate moved south-southwestward with a velocity of 18 +/-5 mm per year. A significant vertical uplift with a velocity of 20 mm/yr was detected at a site inland of the Tokai district located in the Akaishi uplift zone and at a site on the Hatsushima Island in Sagami Bay.

Shimada, Seiichi↗

Knowledge-based decision support for Space Station assembly sequence planning

A complete Personal Analysis Assistant (PAA) for Space Station Freedom (SSF) assembly sequence planning consists of three software components: the system infrastructure, intra-flight value added, and inter-flight value added. The system infrastructure is the substrate on which software elements providing inter-flight and intra-flight value-added functionality are built. It provides the capability for building representations of assembly sequence plans and specification of constraints and analysis options. Intra-flight value-added provides functionality that will, given the manifest for each flight, define cargo elements, place them in the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) cargo bay, compute performance measure values, and identify violated constraints. Inter-flight value-added provides functionality that will, given major milestone dates and capability requirements, determine the number and dates of required flights and develop a manifest for each flight. The current project is Phase 1 of a projected two phase program and delivers the system infrastructure. Intra- and inter-flight value-added were to be developed in Phase 2, which has not been funded. Based on experience derived from hundreds of projects conducted over the past seven years, ISX developed an Intelligent Systems Engineering (ISE) methodology that combines the methods of systems engineering and knowledge engineering to meet the special systems development requirements posed by intelligent systems, systems that blend artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies with more conventional computing technologies. The ISE methodology defines a phased program process that begins with an application assessment designed to provide a preliminary determination of the relative technical risks and payoffs associated with a potential application, and then moves through requirements analysis, system design, and development.

Source record↗

Searching for quasar candidates with periodic variations from the Zwicky Transient Facility: results and implications

ABSTRACT We conduct a systematic search for quasars with periodic variations from the archival photometric data of the Zwicky Transient Facility by cross-matching with the quasar catalogues of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Véron-Cetty and Véron. We first select out 184 primitive periodic candidates using the generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram and autocorrelation function and then estimate their statistical significance of periodicity based on two red-noise models, i.e. damped random walk (DRW) and single power-law (SPL) models. As such, we finally identify 106 (DRW) and 86 (SPL) candidates with the most significant periodic variations out of 143 700 quasars. We further compare DRW and SPL models using Bayes factors, which indicate a relative preference of the SPL model for our primitive sample. We thus adopt the candidates identified with SPL as the final sample and summarize its basic properties. We extend the light curves of the selected candidates by supplying other archival survey data to verify their periodicity. However, only three candidates (with 6–8 cycles of periods) meet the selection criteria. This result clearly implies that, instead of being strictly periodic, the variability must be quasi-periodic or caused by stochastic red-noise. This exerts a challenge to the existing search approaches and calls for developing new effective methods.

Chen, Yong-Jie (ORCID:0000000342807673)↗

Data-driven acoustic measurement of moisture content in flowing biomass

Measuring the moisture content in flowing biomass is critical to processes such as liquid biofuel conversion, such as biogasoline, biodiesel, bio jet kerosene, etc. However, biomass tends to flow in aggregates, which results in significant inhomogeneities in the amount of biomass flowing in front of a sensor at a given time, and there can be significant overlap in the material properties of dry vs wet biomass, leading to poor signal-to-noise ratio. We present a technique for identifying biomass moisture content using a series of acoustic pitch-catch measurements to quantify the sound speed and acoustic amplitude through the biomass, in conjunction with classical machine learning techniques, including Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors classification. We amplify the differences between the acoustic measurements in different moisture levels by collecting a series of pulse-echo measurements, which we sort in order of ascending sound speed. We test the accuracy of the technique on experimentally-prepared batches of corn stover biomass with specified moisture levels and measure the average error in the estimated moisture level as a function of the number of pitch-catch measurements used. We observe average estimation errors as low as 6.7% by increasing the number of measurements and optimizing the hyperparameters. This work presents a novel method determining moisture content in flowing biomass with inhomogeneous flow. Additionally, this technique has application in optimizing biomass conversion processes, as well as other fields including, paper production, natural fiber processing, and mineral extraction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Mass ordering sum rule for the neutrino disappearance channels in T2K, NOvA, and JUNO

We revisit, reformulate, and extend a method for determining the neutrino mass ordering by using precision measurements of the atmospheric Δ m 2 s in both electron and muon neutrino disappearance channels, first proposed by the authors in 2005 [H. Nunokawa , Phys. Rev. D 72, 013009 (2005)]. The mass ordering is a very important outstanding question for our understanding of the elusive neutrino and determination of the mass ordering has consequences to particle physics, nuclear physics, and cosmology. The JUNO reactor experiment will start data taking this year, and the precision of the atmospheric Δ m 2 s from electron antineutrino measurements will improve by a factor of 3 from Daya Bay’s 2.4% to 0.8% within a year. This measurement, when combined with the atmospheric Δ m 2 ’s measurements from T2K and NOvA for muon neutrino disappearance, will contribute substantially to the Δ χ 2 between the two remaining neutrino mass orderings. In this paper we derive for the first time a mass ordering sum rule that can be used to address the possibility that JUNO’s atmospheric Δ m 2 ’s measurement, when combined with other experiments in particular T2K and NOvA, can determine the neutrino mass ordering at the 3 σ confidence level within one year of operation. For a confidence level of 5 σ in a single experiment, we will have to wait until the middle of the next decade when the DUNE experiment is operating.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Piloting Vertical Flight Aircraft: A Conference on Flying Qualities and Human Factors

This document contains papers from a specialists' meeting entitled "Piloting Vertical Flight Aircraft. A Conference on Flying Qualities and Human Factors." The conference was co-sponsored by the American Helicopter Society--San Francisco Bay Chapter, and the NASA Ames Research Center. It was held January 20-22, 1993 at the Sheraton Hotel Fisherman's Wharf, San Francisco, California. Vertical flight aircraft, including helicopters and a variety of Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) concepts, place unique requirements on human perception, control, and performance for the conduct of their design missions. The intent of this conference was to examine, for these vehicles, advances in: (1) design of flight control systems for ADS-33C standards; (2) assessment of human factors influences of cockpit displays and operational procedures; (3) development of VTOL design and operational criteria; and (4) development of theoretical methods or models for predicting pilot-vehicle performance and mission suitability. Recognizing that human capabilities and limitations form an integral aspect of the operations for these classes of vehicles, a secondary goal of the conference was to provide an initial venue for enhanced interaction between human factors and handling qualities specialists.

Helicopter↗

An experiment in hurricane track prediction using parallel computing methods

The barotropic model is used to explore the advantages of parallel processing in deterministic forecasting. We apply this model to the track forecasting of hurricane Elena (1985). In this particular application, solutions to systems of elliptic equations are the essence of the computational mechanics. One set of equations is associated with the decomposition of the wind into irrotational and nondivergent components - this determines the initial nondivergent state. Another set is associated with recovery of the streamfunction from the forecasted vorticity. We demonstrate that direct parallel methods based on accelerated block cyclic reduction (BCR) significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the elliptic equations germane to this decomposition and forecast problem. A 72-h track prediction was made using incremental time steps of 16 min on a network of 3000 grid points nominally separated by 100 km. The prediction took 30 sec on the 8-processor Alliant FX/8 computer. This was a speed-up of 3.7 when compared to the one-processor version. The 72-h prediction of Elena's track was made as the storm moved toward Florida's west coast. Approximately 200 km west of Tampa Bay, Elena executed a dramatic recurvature that ultimately changed its course toward the northwest. Although the barotropic track forecast was unable to capture the hurricane's tight cycloidal looping maneuver, the subsequent northwesterly movement was accurately forecasted as was the location and timing of landfall near Mobile Bay.

Song, Chang G.↗

Vector analogues of the Maggi-Rubinowicz theory of edge diffraction

The Maggi-Rubinowicz technique for scalar and electromagnetic fields is interpreted as a transformation of an integral over an open surface to a line integral around its rim. Maggi-Rubinowicz analogues are found for several vector physical optics representations. For diffraction from a circular aperture, a numerical comparison between these formulations shows the two methods are in agreement. To circumvent certain convergence difficulties in the Maggi-Rubinowicz integrals that occur as the observer approaches the shadow boundary, a variable mesh integration is used. For the examples considered, where the ratio of the aperture diameter to wavelength is about ten, the Maggi-Rubinowicz formulation yields an 8 to 10 fold decrease in computation time relative to the physical optics formulation.

Meneghini, R.↗

Modeling Assessment of Tidal Energy Extraction in the Western Passage

Numerical models have been widely used for the resource characterization and assessment of tidal instream energy. The accurate assessment of tidal stream energy resources at a feasibility or project-design scale requires detailed hydrodynamic model simulations or high-quality field measurements. This study applied a three-dimensional finite-volume community ocean model (FVCOM) to simulate the tidal hydrodynamics in the Passamaquoddy–Cobscook Bay archipelago, with a focus on the Western Passage, to assist tidal energy resource assessment. IEC Technical specifications were considered in the model configurations and simulations. The model was calibrated and validated with field measurements. Energy fluxes and power densities along selected cross sections were calculated to evaluate the feasibility of the tidal energy development at several hotspots that feature strong currents. When taking both the high current speed and water depth into account, the model results showed that the Western Passage has great potential for the deployment of tidal energy farms. The maximum extractable power in the Western Passage was estimated using the Garrett and Cummins method. Different criteria and methods recommended by the IEC for resource characterization were evaluated and discussed using a sensitivity analysis of energy extraction for a hypothetical tidal turbine farm in the Western Passage.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗