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At least 343 records · Page 19

Enhancing predictive understanding and accuracy in geological carbon dioxide storage monitoring: Simulation and history matching of tracer transport dynamics

Co-injection of conservative tracers with carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is a viable tool for monitoring subsurface processes during geological CO 2 storage (GCS). This research investigates the simulation and history-matching of a gas tracer (sulfur hexafluoride, SF 6 ) during CO 2 flooding, employing a core flooding result in Berea sandstone. Four extensively used saturation functions are assessed for their efficacy in history matching of CO 2 /SF 6 injection at the core scale. The history-matching process incorporates particle swarm optimization (PSO) to fine-tune constitutive relationships parameters. Next, employing transport models at the aquifer scale, we interrogate the impact on tracer transport and mixing of saturation function uncertainties, arising from the non-uniqueness of constitutive relationships parameters and saturation function types. To assess the effects of geological heterogeneity on behavior of tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs), we employ two normalized parameters assessing the degree of mixing and SF 6 breakthrough time. The aquifer-scale investigation encompasses both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems with and without capillary heterogeneity effects. Our findings underscore the critical importance of addressing saturation function uncertainties, emphasizing the significance of auxiliary experiments and innovative methodologies to enhance predictive accuracy. The findings highlight significant disparities in arrival times, BTC peaks, tails, and mixing levels, even under optimal conditions. Heterogeneity, with or without capillary heterogeneity, plays a crucial role in shaping BTC variations, resulting in accelerated SF 6 breakthrough times and reduced BTC peaks. Evaluation of monitoring points distant from the injector reveals a dampening effect on the SF6 BTC peak, particularly in heterogeneous systems with capillary heterogeneity, where the peak is halved. These insights underscore the challenges associated with tracer monitoring and the necessity for enhanced methodologies to improve predictive accuracy in subsurface processes during GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cherenkov and scintillation separation in water-based liquid scintillator using an LAPPDTM

Abstract This manuscript describes measurements of water-based liquid scintillators (WbLS), demonstrating separation of the Cherenkov and scintillation components using a low energy $$\beta $$ β source and the fast timing response of a Large Area Picosecond Photodetector (LAPPD). Additionally, the time profiles of three WbLS mixtures, defined by the relative fractions of scintillating compound, are characterized, with improved sensitivity to the scintillator rise-time. The measurements were made using both an LAPPD and a conventional photomultiplier tube (PMT). All samples were measured with an effective resolution $$O\left( 100~\text {ps}\right) $$ O 100 ps , which allows for the separation of Cherenkov and scintillation light (henceforth C/S separation) by selecting on the arrival time of the photons alone. The Cherenkov purity of the selected photons is greater than 60% in all cases, with greater than 80% achieved for a sample containing 1% scintillator. This is the first demonstration of the power of synthesizing low light yield scintillators, of which WbLS is the canonical example, with fast photodetectors, of which LAPPDs are an emerging leader, and has direct implication for future mid- and large-scale detectors, such as Theia , ANNIE, and AIT-NEO.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

High-Quality Revision of the Israeli Seismic Bulletin

Seismic bulletins, with trustworthy phase picks, origin times, and source locations are key for regional seismic studies, such as travel-time (TT) tomography, attenuation tomography, and anisotropy studies. To lay the groundwork for such studies in Israel, we revised the seismic bulletin of Israel and the surrounding area and obtained a trustworthy TT data set. From the earthquake and explosion bulletins of the Geophysical Institute of Israel, we compiled a starting data set of about 123,000 earthquakes and explosions that occurred during the past 40 yr. After screening out the poorly recorded events, we were left with a data set of ~38,000 well-recorded events. We then revised the remaining data set in two consecutive steps. In the first, we reviewed and updated station metadata, including changes in station metadata parameters over time. In the second step, we jointly relocated a list of selected seismic events, using the Bayesian hierarchical location software package (BayesLoc) of Myers et al. (2007) that performs joint relocation of multiple events. We observed striking dissimilarities between the spatial distributions of the newly relocated catalog and the initial locations. Although the depth distribution of the starting catalog is trimodal with peaks at 0, 5, and 10 km, the distribution in this study is unimodal, with a broad peak between 7.5 and 12.5 km. By differencing the observed arrival times and the origin times obtained through relocation with BayesLoc, we obtained a revised TT database that consists of 261,336 Pg, 132,876 Pn, 114,816 Sg, and 60,394 Sn arrivals, from a set of 30,458 jointly relocated seismic sources. In this work, we compared prerevision and postrevision TTs as a function of epicentral distance and concluded that the revised data set contains far fewer outliers and inconsistencies than the original data set. The revised TT data set may be used for seismic studies, such as TT tomography, attenuation tomography, and anisotropy studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine Learning‐Assisted Microearthquake Location Workflow for Monitoring the Newberry Enhanced Geothermal System

Abstract Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer a sustainable energy source but face challenges in accurately locating microearthquakes induced during reservoir stimulation. Locating these microearthquakes provides reliable feedback on the stimulation progress. Current deep learning methods for locating earthquakes require extensive data sets for training, which is problematic as detected microearthquakes are often limited. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose a practical workflow using probabilistic multilayer perceptron (PMLP) which predicts microearthquake locations from cross‐correlation time lags in waveforms. Utilizing a 3D velocity model of Newberry site derived from ambient noise interferometry, we generate numerous synthetic microearthquakes and 3D acoustic waveforms for PMLP training. Accurate synthetic tests prompt us to apply the trained network to the 2012 and 2014 stimulation field waveforms. To enhance the accuracy of source localization, we carefully handpick the P‐arrival times. Predictions on the 2012 stimulation data set show major microseismic activity at depths of 0.5–1.2 km, correlating with a known casing leakage scenario. In the 2014 data set, the majority of predictions concentrate at 2.0–2.9 km depths, consistent with results obtained from conventional physics‐based inversion, and align with the presence of natural fractures from 2.0 to 2.7 km. We validate our findings by comparing the synthetic and field picks, demonstrating a satisfactory match for the first arrivals. By combining the benefits of quick inference speeds and accurate location predictions, we demonstrate the feasibility of using realistic synthetic data set to locate microseismicity for EGS monitoring.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Piloted simulation of a ground-based time-control concept for air traffic control

A joint simulation was carried out using a piloted simulator and an advanced-concept air traffic control simulation to study the acceptability and accuracy of the ground-based four-dimensional descent advisor (DA), an automation aid based on accurate models of aircraft performance and weather conditions. In the piloted simulation, airline crews executed controller-issued descent advisories along standard curved-path arrival routes and were able to achieve an arrival-time precision of plus or minus 20 s at the metering fix. An analysis of errors generated in turns resulted in a further enhancement of the DA algorithm.

Davis, Thomas J.↗

Variable Daily Autocorrelation Functions of High-Frequency Seismic Data on Mars

Abstract High-frequency seismic data on Mars are dominated by wind-generated lander vibrations, which are radiated partially to the subsurface. Autocorrelation functions (ACFs) of seismic data on Mars filtered between 1 and 5 Hz show clear phases at ∼1.3, ∼2.6, and ∼3.9 s. Daily temporal changes of their arrival times (dt/t) correlate well with the daily changes of ground temperature, with ∼5% daily variation and ∼50 min apparent phase delay. The following two mechanisms could explain the observations: (1) the interference of two predominant spectral peaks at ∼3.3 and ∼4.1 Hz, assumed to be both lander resonance modes, generate the apparent arrivals in the ACFs; (2) the interference of the lander vibration and its reflection from an interface ∼200 m below the lander generate the 3.3 Hz spectral peak and ∼1.3 s arrival in the ACFs. The driving mechanism of the resolved dt/t that most likely explains the ∼50 min delay is thermoelastic strain at a near-surface layer, affecting the lander–ground coupling and subsurface structures. The two outlined mechanisms suggest, respectively, up to ∼10% changes in ground stiffness at 1–5 Hz and ∼15% velocity changes in the top ∼20 m layer. These are upper bound values considering also other possible contributions. The presented methodology and results contribute to analysis of ACFs with limited data and the understanding of subsurface materials on Mars.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Laser-Ranging Transponders for Science Investigations of the Moon and Mars

An active laser was developed ranging in real-time with two terminals, emulating interplanetary distances, and with submillimeter accuracy. In order to overcome the limitations to ranging accuracy from jitters and delay drifts within the transponders, architecture was proposed based on asynchronous paired one-way ranging with local references. A portion of the transmitted light is directed, via a reference path, to the local detector. This allows for compensation of any jitter in the timing of the emitted laser pulse. The same detector is used to measure the time of the received pulses emitted from the remote terminal. This approach removes any change in the delay caused by the detector or its electronics. Two separate terminals using commercial off-the-shelf hardware were built to emulate active laser ranging over interplanetary distances. The communication link for the command to start recording pulse arrival times and data transfer from one terminal to the other was achieved using a standard wireless link, emulating free space laser communication. The deviation is well below the goal of 1-mm precision. This leaves enough margin to achieve 1-mm precision when including the fluctuations due to atmospheric turbulence while ranging to Mars through the Earth s atmosphere. The two terminals are mounted on translation stages, which can be moved freely on rails to yield a wide range of distances with fine adjustment. The two terminals were separated by approximately 16 meters.

Hemmati, Hamid↗

Initial Field Evaluation of Pilot Procedures for Flying CTAS Descent Clearances

The Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) is a new support system that is designed to assist air traffic controllers in the management of arrival traffic. CTAS will provide controllers with more information about current air traffic, enabling them to provide clearances for efficient, conflict-free descents that help achieve an orderly stream of aircraft at the final approach fix. CTAS is a computer-based system that functions as a "ground-based FMS" that can predict flight trajectories and arrival times for all incoming aircraft. CTAS uses an aircraft's cruise airspeed; current air traffic, winds and temperature; performance characteristics of the aircraft type; and individual airline preferences to create a flight profile from cruise altitude to the final approach fix. Controllers can use this flight profile to provide a descent clearance that will allow an aircraft to fly an efficient descent and merge more smoothly with other arriving aircraft. A field test of the CTAS Descent Advisor software was conducted at the Denver Center for aircraft arriving at the Stapleton International Airport from September 12-29. CTAS Descent clearances were given to a NASA flight test aircraft and to 77 airline flights that arrived during low traffic periods. For the airline portion of the field test, cockpit procedures and pilot briefing packages for both FMS equipped and unequipped aircraft were developed in cooperation with an airline. The procedures developed for the FMS equipped aircraft were to fly a VNAV descent at a controller specified speed to cross a metering fix at a specified altitude and speed. For nonFMS aircraft, the clearance also specified a CTAS calculated top-of-descent point. Some CTAS related flight deck issues included how much time was available to the pilots' for compliance, the amount of information that needed to be interpreted in the clearance and possible repercussions of misunderstandings. Data collected during the study ranged from subjective data (including the airline pilots' opinions and comments about the new descent clearances and procedures) to objective data (including observations of aircraft performance from the flight deck). This paper will present data and the resulting changes in the design of the procedures and clearance phraseology.

Palmer, Everett↗

An End-To-End Earthquake Detection Method for Joint Phase Picking and Association Using Deep Learning

Earthquake monitoring by seismic networks typically involves a workflow consisting of phase detection/picking, association, and location tasks. In recent years, the accuracy of these individual stages has been improved through the use of machine learning techniques. Here, in this study, we introduce a new end-to-end approach that improves overall earthquake detection accuracy by jointly optimizing each stage of the detection pipeline. We propose a neural network architecture for the task of multi-station processing of seismic waveforms recorded over a seismic network. This end-to-end architecture consists of three sub-networks: a backbone network that extracts features from raw waveforms, a phase picking sub-network that picks P- and S-wave arrivals based on these features, and an event detection sub-network that aggregates the features from multiple stations to associate and detect earthquakes across a seismic network. We use these sub-networks together with a shift-and-stack module based on back-projection that introduces kinematic constraints on arrival times, allowing the neural network model to generalize to different velocity models and to variable station geometry in seismic networks. We evaluate our proposed method on the STanford EArthquake Dataset (STEAD) and on the 2019 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake sequence. The results demonstrate that our end-to-end approach can effectively pick P- and S-wave arrivals and achieve earthquake detection accuracy rivaling that of other state-of-the-art approaches. Because our approach preserves information across tasks in the detection pipeline, it has the potential to outperform approaches that do not.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Calibration of the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer Proportional Counter Array

We present the calibration and background model for the Proportional Counter Array (PCA) aboard the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). The energy calibration is systematics limited below 10 keV with deviations from a power law fit to the Crab nebula plus pulsar loss than 1%. Unmodelled variations in the instrument background amount to less than 2% of the observed background below 10 keV and less than 1% between 10 and 20 keV. Individual photon arrival times are accurate to 4.4 microseconds at all times during the mission and to 2.5 microseconds after 29 April 1997. The peak pointing direction of the five collimators is known at few arcsecond precision.

Jahoda, Keith↗

Benefits Assessment for Tactical Runway Configuration Management Tool

The Tactical Runway Configuration Management (TRCM) software tool was developed to provide air traffic flow managers and supervisors with recommendations for airport configuration changes and runway usage. The objective for this study is to conduct a benefits assessment at Memphis (MEM), Dallas Fort-Worth (DFW) and New York's John F. Kennedy (JFK) airports using the TRCM tool. Results from simulations using the TRCM-generated runway configuration schedule are compared with results using historical schedules. For the 12 days of data used in this analysis, the transit time (arrival fix to spot on airport movement area for arrivals, or spot to departure fix for departures) for MEM departures is greater (7%) than for arrivals (3%); for JFK, there is a benefit for arrivals (9%) but not for departures (-2%); for DFW, arrivals show a slight benefit (1%), but this is offset by departures (-2%). Departure queue length benefits show fewer aircraft in queue for JFK (29%) and MEM (11%), but not for DFW (-13%). Fuel savings for surface operations at MEM are seen for both arrivals and departures. At JFK there are fuel savings for arrivals, but these are offset by increased fuel use for departures. In this study, no surface fuel benefits resulted for DFW. Results suggest that the TRCM algorithm requires modifications for complex surface traffic operations that can cause taxi delays. For all three airports, the average number of changes in flow direction (runway configuration) recommended by TRCM was many times greater than the historical data; TRCM would need to be adapted to a particular airport's needs, to limit the number of changes to acceptable levels. The results from this analysis indicate the TRCM tool can provide benefits at some high-capacity airports. The magnitude of these benefits depends on many airport-specific factors and would require adaptation of the TRCM tool; a detailed assessment is needed prior to determining suitability for a particular airport.

Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa↗

A potential probe of Fundamental Interactions using Multi-Modal Cosmic Ray events

The Horizon-T experiment in Tien Shan is based on the idea of measuring the time at which EAS disc passes the observation level with nanosecond accuracy. The detector system consists of ten charged particles registration points located at distances of up to several hundred meters from each other. The points are equipped with detectors based on registration of Cherenkov radiation in glass and registration of scintillation light in polystyrene. The detectors register the arrival times of charged particles at the observation level with a resolution of ~2 ns, as required to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of the EAS and the structure of the multi-modal events specifically. Over the period of the Horizon-T data taking since 2017 to present, a large number of multi-modal events were detected. The data has presented numerous challenges that show the direction towards the further development of the detector system and of the analysis methods and techniques that could be applied to these multi-modal events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Cross-Layered Distributed Data-Driven Framework for Enhanced Smart Grid Cyber-Physical Security

Smart Grid (SG) research and development has drawn much attention from academia, industry and government due to the great impact it will have on society, economics and the environment. Securing the SG is a considerably significant challenge due the increased dependency on communication networks to assist in physical process control, exposing them to various cyber-threats. In addition to attacks that change measurement values using False Data Injection (FDI) techniques, attacks on the communication network may disrupt the power system's real-time operation by intercepting messages, or by flooding the communication channels with unnecessary data. Addressing these attacks requires a cross-layer approach. In this paper a cross-layered strategy is presented, called Cross-Layer Ensemble CorrDet with Adaptive Statistics(CECD-AS), which integrates the detection of faulty SG measurement data as well as inconsistent network inter-arrival times and transmission delays for more reliable and accurate anomaly detection and attack interpretation. Numerical results show that CECD-AS can detect multiple False Data Injections, Denial of Service (DoS) and Man In The Middle (MITM) attacks with a high F1-score compared to current approaches that only use SG measurement data for detection such as the traditional physics-based State Estimation, Ensemble CorrDet with Adaptive Statistics strategy and other machine learning classification-based detection schemes.

cyber-physical security↗

Probing Transit Timing Variation and Its Possible Origin with 12 New Transits of TrES-3b

We present 12 new transit light curves of the hot-Jupiter TrES-3b observed during 2012−2018 to probe the transit timing variation (TTV). By combining the midtransit times determined from these 12 transit data with those reestimated through uniform procedure from 71 transit data available in the literature, we derive new linear ephemeris and obtain the timing residuals that suggest the possibility of TTV in the TrES-3 system. However, the frequency analysis shows that the possible TTV is unlikely to be periodic, indicating the absence of an additional body in this system. To explore the other possible origins of TTV, the orbital decay and apsidal precession ephemeris models are fitted to the transit time data. We find the decay rate of TrES-3b to be P-dot {sub q}=−4.1±3.1 ms yr{sup −1}, and the corresponding estimated modified stellar tidal quality factor of Q{sub ∗}{sup ′}∼1.11×10{sup 5} is consistent with the theoretically predicted values for the stars hosting the hot-Jupiters. The shift in the transit arrival time of TrES-3b after 11 years is expected to be T {sub shift} ∼ 69.55 s, which is consistent with the rms of the timing residuals. Besides, we find that the apsidal precession ephemeris model is statistically less probable than the other considered ephemeris models. It is also discussed that despite the fact that the linear ephemeris model appears to be the most plausible model to represent the transit time data, the possibility of the orbital decay cannot be completely ruled out in the TrES-3 system. To confirm this, further high-precision and high-cadence follow-up observation of transits of TrES-3b would be important.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Study of excitation transfer in a flowing helium afterglow pumped with a tuneable dye laser. 1: Measurement of the rate coefficient for selected quenching reactions involving he(5 3P)

A system is described for the measurement of excited state reaction times in the nanosecond range. A flowing afterglow produces large populations of chemically unstable species, and a pulsed, tuneable dye laser is used to selectively pump these into the reacting excited state. The transient fluorescence from the populations of reactants and end products is used to determine reaction lifetimes and yields. This radiatron is collected with a photon counting system which logs arrival times of spectrally dispersed photons with 10 nanosecond resolution.

Collins, C. B.↗

Results on nucleon life-time from the Kolar gold field experiment

The KGF nucleon decay experiment has been in operation since October 1980 with a 140 ton calorimetric detector at a depth of 2.3 Km underground. The detector comprises 34 layers of proportional counters arranged in an orthogonal geometry with 12 mm thick iron plates in between successive layers. The proportional counters are made up of square (10 x 10 square centimeters) iron plates of wall thickness 2.3 mm. Each of the 1600 counters is instrumented to provide data on ionization, DE/dx and arrival time. The visible energy of a particle is determined to an accuracy of approximately 20% from the ionization and range of its track. The end point ionization of a stopping track provides the direction of motion as well as the nature of the particle (mu/pi,k,p). Decay of mu is recorded with an overall efficiency of only 20% in view of the thickness of 13 g/square centimeters between successive layers.

Krishnaswamy, M. R.↗

Possible Evidence for an Event Horizon in Cyg XR-1

The X-ray emitting component in the Cyg XR-1/HDE226868 system is a leading candidate for identification as a stellar-mass sized black hole. The positive identification of a black hole as predicted by general relativity requires the detection of an event horizon surrounding the point singularity. One signature of such an event horizon would be the existence of dying pulse trains emitted by material spiraling into the event horizon from the last stable orbit around the black hole. We observed the Cyg XR-1 system at three different epochs in a 1400 - 3000 A bandpass with 0.1 ms time resolution using the Hubble Space Telescope's High Speed Photometer. Repeated excursions of the detected flux by more than three standard deviations above the mean are present in the UV flux with FWHM 1 - 10 ms. If any of these excursions are pulses of radiation produced in the system (and not just stochastic variability associated with the Poisson distribution of detected photon arrival times), then this short a timescale requires that the pulses originate in the accretion disk around Cyg XR-1. Two series of pulses with characteristics similar to those expected from dying pulse trains were detected in three hours of observation.

Dolan, Joseph F.↗

Blocking Losses With a Photon Counter

It was not known how to assess accurately losses in a communications link due to photodetector blocking, a phenomenon wherein a detector is rendered inactive for a short time after the detection of a photon. When used to detect a communications signal, blocking leads to losses relative to an ideal detector, which may be measured as a reduction in the communications rate for a given received signal power, or an increase in the signal power required to support the same communications rate. This work involved characterizing blocking losses for single detectors and arrays of detectors. Blocking may be mitigated by spreading the signal intensity over an array of detectors, reducing the count rate on any one detector. A simple approximation was made to the blocking loss as a function of the probability that a detector is unblocked at a given time, essentially treating the blocking probability as a scaling of the detection efficiency. An exact statistical characterization was derived for a single detector, and an approximation for multiple detectors. This allowed derivation of several accurate approximations to the loss. Methods were also derived to account for a rise time in recovery, and non-uniform illumination due to diffraction and atmospheric distortion of the phase front. It was assumed that the communications signal is intensity modulated and received by an array of photon-counting photodetectors. For the purpose of this analysis, it was assumed that the detectors are ideal, in that they produce a signal that allows one to reproduce the arrival times of electrons, produced either as photoelectrons or from dark noise, exactly. For single detectors, the performance of the maximum-likelihood (ML) receiver in blocking is illustrated, as well as a maximum-count (MC) receiver, that, when receiving a pulse-position-modulated (PPM) signal, selects the symbol corresponding to the slot with the largest electron count. Whereas the MC receiver saturates at high count rates, the ML receiver may not. The loss in capacity, symbol-error-rate (SER), and count-rate were numerically computed. It was shown that the capacity and symbol-error-rate losses track, whereas the count-rate loss does not generally reflect the SER or capacity loss, as the slot-statistics at the detector output are no longer Poisson. It is also shown that the MC receiver loss may be accurately predicted for dead times on the order of a slot.

Moision, Burce E.↗