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At least 343 records · Page 19

El Nino-Southern Oscillation Correlated Aerosol Angstrom Exponent Anomaly Over the Tropical Pacific Discovered in Satellite Measurements

El Nino.Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical atmosphere. ENSO could potentially impact local and global aerosol properties through atmospheric circulation anomalies and teleconnections. By analyzing aerosol properties, including aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent (AE; often used as a qualitative indicator of aerosol particle size) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer and the Sea ]viewing Wide Field ]of ]view Sensor for the period 2000.2011, we find a strong correlation between the AE data and the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) over the tropical Pacific. Over the western tropical Pacific (WTP), AE increases during El Nino events and decreases during La Nina events, while the opposite is true over the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP). The difference between AE anomalies in the WTP and ETP has a higher correlation coefficient (>0.7) with the MEI than the individual time series and could be considered another type of ENSO index. As no significant ENSO correlation is found in AOD over the same region, the change in AE (and hence aerosol size) is likely to be associated with aerosol composition changes due to anomalous meteorological conditions induced by the ENSO. Several physical parameters or mechanisms that might be responsible for the correlation are discussed. Preliminary analysis indicates surface wind anomaly might be the major contributor, as it reduces sea ]salt production and aerosol transport during El Nino events. Precipitation and cloud fraction are also found to be correlated with tropical Pacific AE. Possible mechanisms, including wet removal and cloud shielding effects, are considered. Variations in relative humidity, tropospheric ozone concentration, and ocean color during El Nino have been ruled out. Further investigation is needed to fully understand this AE ]ENSO covariability and the underlying physical processes responsible for it.

Li, Jing↗

The Role of Local Heating in the 2015 Indian Heat Wave

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examination of in situ data, reanalysis, satellite observations, and land surface models, we find that the heat wave included two distinct peaks: one in late May, and a second in early June. During the first peak we find that clear skies led to a positive net radiation anomaly at the surface, but there is no significant sensible heat flux anomaly within the core of the heat wave affected region. By the time of the second peak, however, soil moisture had dropped to anomalously low levels in the core heat wave region, net surface radiation was anomalously high, and a significant positive sensible heat flux anomaly developed. This led to a substantial local forcing on air temperature that contributed to the intensity of the event. The analysis indicates that the highly agricultural landscape of North and Central India can reinforce heat extremes under dry conditions.

Debjani Ghatak↗

Chemical and Thermodynamic Constraints on the Thermal Evolution of Eucrites

Vesta is the only differentiated asteroid with a nearly intact crust, making it the candidate for studying early planetary differentiation. It is commonly thought that the howardite, eucrite, and diogenite (HED) clan of meteorites derive from Vesta, and thus the study of HEDs is important for understanding the evolution of primitive bodies in the early solar system [1]. Of particular interest are the unusual trace element abundances in Stannern group eucrites, which have been interpreted as partial melting and melt contamination events that occurred on the parent body during thermal metamorphism[2]. However, some samples that contain evidence of high temperature metamorphism, such as Elephant Moraine (EET) 90020, have anomalous REE patterns that have been interpret-ed multiple ways. For example [3] concluded that the loss of small degrees of partial melt depleted the sample in LREEs while [4] concluded that subsolidus diffusion better explained why depletion of only some highly incompatible elements is observed. The heterogeneous nature of this sample makes reconstructing its petrologic history challenging. Here, we conduct further petrographic and chemical studies on polished thin sections of EET 90020 and compare results to previous studies [3-5]. Additionally, we combine chemical analyses with thermodynamic models in order to refine the constraints on the post-crystallization thermal history of EET 90020. We additionally include studies of Graves Nunataks (GRA) 98098, which also contains evidence of high temperature metamorphism and anomalous geochemical signatures, as well as evidence of solid state diffusion at lower temperatures [6].

Gorce, Jennifer S.↗

Extreme Air Pollution Events in Hokkaido, Japan Traced Back to Early Snowmelt and Large-Scale Wildfires Over East Eurasia: Case Studies

To identify the unusual climate conditions and their connections to air pollutions in a remote area due to wildfires, we examine three anomalous large-scale wildfires in May 2003, April 2008, and July 2014 over East Eurasia, as well as how products of those wildfires reached an urban city, Sapporo, in the northern part of Japan (Hokkaido), significantly affecting the air quality. NASA's MERRA-2 (the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) aerosol re-analysis data closely reproduced the PM2.5 variations in Sapporo for the case of smoke arrival inJuly 2014. Results show that all three cases featured unusually early snowmelt in East Eurasia, accompanied by warmer and drier surface conditions in the months leading to the fires, inducing long-lasting soil dryness and producing environmental conditions conductive to active wildfires. Due to prevailing anomalous synoptic-scale atmospheric motions, smoke from those fires eventually reached a remote area, Hokkaido, and worsened the air quality in Sapporo. In futurestudies, continuous monitoring of the timing of Eurasian snowmelt and the air quality from the source regions to remote regions, coupled with the analysis of atmospheric and surface conditions, may be essential in more accurately predicting the effects of wildfires on air quality.

MERRA-2↗

Polar stratospheric clouds inferred from satellite data

Anomalously high radiances from the ozone channel of the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) sounding instrument have been observed in the Northern Hemisphere winter lower stratosphere. Such events, thought to be due to polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), are examined further by computing relative humidities using Stratospheric Sounding Unit temperatures and water vapor measurements from the LIMS Map Archive Tape analyses. Regions identified as PSCs are found to correspond closely to regions of high humidity. While instances of saturation were found, the average humidity at the centers of 39 PSCs was calculated to be 58 percent. Possible reasons for this apparent discrepancy are discussed. Applying a similar approach to the Southern Hemisphere, in 1979, virtually no PSCs are found in the vortex after September 10 at 20 km. This result has important implications for a number of proposed explanations for the Antarctic ozone hole.

Austin, J.↗

Solar activity and coronal mass ejections on the western hemisphere of the Sun in mid-August 1989: Association with interplanetary observations at the ICE and IMP 8 spacecraft

During the 10-day period from August 12 to 21, 1989, a sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) was observed above the west limb of the Sun by the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) coronagraph. Most of these CMEs apparently originated in the vicinity of one particularly active region during its passage from near central meridian to behind the west limb of the Sun. We present observations made at 1 AU during this period by the International Cometary Explorer (ICE) (formerly International Sun Earth Explorer-3 (ISEE 3)) and Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP 8) spacecraft which were separated by approximately 75 deg in heliolongitude. Following CMEs on August 12 associated with solar events at approximately W40 deg, IMP 8 (in Earth orbit) detected a strong shock followed by signatures in magnetic field, solar wind plasma, and energetic ion data which suggest that CME-related material ('ejecta') forming the shock driver engulfed the spacecraft. This spacecraft only observed weak shocks, and no ejecta, from later CMEs originating further west of the spacecraft. In contrast ICE, off the west limb at approximately W75 deg, observed the shock from the W40 deg event but failed to encounter the shock driver, whereas clear ejecta signatures were observed following events further west, closer to the spacecraft heliolongitude. The disappearance of these signatures (which include bidirectional energetic ion flows, bidirectional solar wind heat fluxes, quiet, enhanced magnetic fields and anomalously cool plasma) at IMP 8 and their emergence at ICE as the solar source region moved westward supports the association of such signatures with ejecta related to CMEs. The dual-spacecraft observations are also consistent with the conclusion of Richardson and Cane (1993) that ejecta at 1 AU typically extend approximately 50 degs in longitude from the solar source. Some plausible associations between particular intervals of ejecta signatures at ICE and individual CMEs are made. However, these associations are complicated by the large number of CMEs present, by intermittent ICE data coverage, and by uncertainties in the ejecta propagation speeds to the spacecraft.

Richardson, I. G.↗

The Evolution of Tropical Precipitation Patterns During ENSO Events Using 21+ Years of GPCP Merged Data

The ENSO phenomenon is characterized by fluctuations in the climate system of the tropical Pacific. Quantifying changes in the precipitation component of this system is important in understanding the distribution of heating in the atmosphere which drives the large-scale circulation and affects the weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Monitoring precipitation anomalies in the Pacific is also an important component for tracking the evolution of ENSO. The most timely and complete observations of the earth come from satellite instruments. In this study, the state of the art satellite-gauge merged monthly precipitation data set from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to depict tropical rainfall patterns during ENSO events over the past two decades and quantify these patterns using indices. This analysis will be complemented by daily precipitation data which can resolve the Madden-Julian Oscillation and westerly wind burst events. The 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina were the best observed ENSO cycle in the historic record. Prior to the El Nino (in terms of anomalous warming of the east Pacific) dry anomalies over the Maritime Continent were observed in February 1997 as a westerly wind burst advected convection to the east. The largest SST anomalies occurred around November-December 1997, which were followed by the largest precipitation anomalies in the beginning of 1998. The largest precipitation departures from normal were not colocated with the SST anomalies, but were further west, In the spring of 1998 negative precipitation anomalies to the north of the equator intensified, signaling the mature phase of the El Nino. A rapid increase in the precipitation-based La Nina index from December-January 1998 to March-April 1998 signaled the coming La Nina. The 1982-1983 El Nino was comparable in strength (according to several indices) and the precipitation patterns evolved in a similar fashion. For the 1998-2000 La Nina, the coldest anomalies, were confined to the central equatorial Pacific, while the driest anomalies were found in the west Pacific,

Curtis, Scott↗

SRF cavity instability detection with machine learning at CEBAF

During the operation of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), one or more unstable superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities often cause beam loss trips while the unstable cavities themselves do not necessarily trip off. The present RF controls for the legacy cavities report at only 1 Hz, which is too slow to detectfast transient instabilities during these trip events. These challenges make the identification of an unstable cavity out of the hundreds installed at CEBAF a difficult and time-consuming task. To tackle these issues, a fast data acquisition system (DAQ) for the legacy SRF cavities has been developed, which records the sample at 5 kHz. An unsupervised learning framework has been developed to identify anomalous SRF cavity behavior. We will discuss the present status of the DAQ system and our framework, along with recent successes in detecting anomalous cavity behavior. Overall, our method offers a practical solution for identifying unstable SRF cavities, contributing to increased beam availability and machine reliability.

Accelerator Physics↗

Characteristics of low energy ions in the Heavy Ions In Space (HIIS) experiment

We present preliminary data on heavy ions (Z greater than or equal to 10) detected in the topmost Lexan sheets of the track detector stacks of the Heavy Ions in space (HIIS) experiment (M0001) on LDEF. The energy interval covered by these observations varies with the element, with (for example) Ne observable at 18-100 MeV nuc and Fe at 45-200 MeV/nuc. All of the observed ions are at energies far below the geomagnetic cutoff for fully-ionized particles at the LDEF orbit. Above 50 MeV/nuc (where most of our observed particles are Fe), the ions arrive primarily from the direction of lowest geomagnetic cutoff. This suggests that these particles originate outside the magnetosphere from a source with a steeply-falling spectrum and may therefore be associated with solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Below 50 MeV/nuc, the distribution of arrival directions suggests that most of the observed heavy ions are trapped in the Earth's magnetic field. Preliminary analysis, however, shows that these trapped heavy ions have a very surprising composition: they include not only Ne and Ar, which are expected from the trapping of anomalous cosmic rays (ACR's), but also Mg and Si, which are not part of the anomalous component. Our preliminary analysis shows that trapped heavy ions at 12 less than or equal to Zeta less than or equal to 14 have a steeply-falling spectrum, similar to that reported by the Kiel experiment (exp 1,2,3) on LDEF (M0002) for trapped Ar and Fe at E less than 50 MeV/nuc. The trapped Mg, Si, and Fe may also be associated with SEP events, but the mechanism by which they have appeared to deep in the inner magnetosphere requires further theoretical investigation.

Kleis, Thomas↗

California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term “snow deluge” and use anomalously high snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California’s 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges—which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event—are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

Marshall, Adrienne M.↗

Subtropical Jet Regulates Arabian Winter Precipitation: A Viable Mechanism

The present study explores the mechanism governing wintertime (November–April) precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) using a 17-yr-long (2002–18) high-resolution WRF simulation. The composite analysis of strong precipitation events suggests that the equatorward extension of the upper-level jet together with the embedded upper-level trough creates a positive (cyclonic) midlevel vorticity and subsequently generates an anomalous lower-level convergence through Ekman pumping. This leads to the development of an anomalous surface low, which is further enhanced in the presence of the existing Red Sea trough over the AP. This surface low weakens the persistent anticyclone over the AP, shifting it further eastward to the Arabian Sea. The eastward shift in the lower-level anticyclone contributes to the transport of warm, moist air from the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea toward the AP. This warm, moist air converges with the cold and dry air advected by the midlatitude jet and creates a moisture convergence zone, leading to the initiation of convection. We test the proposed mechanism through numerical experiments with modified upper-level wind and demonstrate that a strong, southward intrusion of the jet can indeed lead to precipitation over the AP. The above mechanism also explains the interannual variability of precipitation over the AP. During wet years, we notice approximately 3 m s -1 stronger jet core magnitude and about a 2° equatorward shift of the jet compared to dry years. While the equatorward extension of the jet explains about 21% of the interannual variability, the jet magnitude explains around 7% of the variability during wet years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interactions between synoptic-scale eddies and the large-scale flow during the development of blocking over the North Atlantic Ocean

Earlier studies of blocking are extended by examining the interactions that occur between the synoptic-scale eddies and the large-scale flow during the development of wintertime blocking events over the North Atlantic Ocean. In particular, attention is given to the change of synoptic-scale eddy activity during the development of blocking and to the role of anomalous forcing by synoptic-scale eddies in the development of large-scale flow anomalies. The dynamical mechanisms accounting for the observed variations in eddy activity are identified.

Neilley, Peter P.↗

Diagnosing Seasonal to Multi-decadal Phytoplankton Group Dynamics in a Highly Productive Coastal Ecosystem

The Santa Barbara Channel, CA (SBC) is a biodiverse marine ecosystem fueled largely by phytoplankton productivity, and the composition of the phytoplankton community influences the magnitude and fates of this productivity. Here, we create a 22-year monthly time series of phytoplankton biomarker pigment concentrations in the SBC by combining 12 years of high performance liquid chromatography phytoplankton pigment concentrations with bio-optical models and 10 additional years of bio-optical observations. The bio-optical models skillfully predict biomarker pigment concentrations representative of five distinct phytoplankton groups (PGs; diatoms, dinoflagellates, chlorophytes, prymnesiophytes, and picophytoplankton) and resolve seasonal responses to the annual upwelling-relaxation cycle for all PGs except the dinoflagellates. Our observations indicate that nanophytoplankton groups respond most rapidly to seasonal upwelling, followed by diatoms, and then by picophytoplankton as the water column stratifies in the summer. A Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) solution is used to relate advection of different source waters to the observed PG dynamics. The ROMS simulation results suggest that, on seasonal time scales, pronounced cross-SBC differences in PG seasonality are related to cross-SBC differences in source waters. El Niño Southern Oscillation events drive interannual variability in the upwelling response of most PGs. On decadal time scales, dinoflagellate blooms are associated with the warm phase of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and anomalous advection of Southern California Bight source waters into the SBC. Taken together, our results provide a novel view of phytoplankton community succession in response to seasonal upwelling by considering the dynamics of pico- and nano-phytoplankton and suggest that regional surface ocean advection plays a substantial role in driving phytoplankton composition in the SBC.

Phytoplankton↗

Muon Neutrino Reconstruction at ICARUS with Machine Learning

The ICARUS T600 LArTPC detector successfully ran for three years at the underground LNGS laboratories, providing a first sensitive search for LSND-like anomalous electron neutrino appearance in the CNGS beam. After a significant overhauling at CERN, the T600 detector has been placed in its experimental hall at Fermilab, fully commissioned, and the first events observed with full detector readout. Regular data-taking began in May 2021 with neutrinos from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) and neutrinos six degrees off-axis from the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI). Modern developments in machine learning have allowed for the development of an end-to-end machine learning-based event reconstruction for ICARUS data. This reconstruction folds in 3D voxel-level feature extraction using sparse convolutional neural networks and particle clustering using graph neural networks to produce outputs suitable for physics analyses. This poster will summarize the performance of a high-purity and high-efficiency end-to-end machine learning-based selection of muon neutrinos from the BNB and highlight studies of electromagnetic shower reconstruction from a neutral pion selection.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

From Multi-Sensors Observations Towards Cross-Disciplinary Study of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What have We Learned from the Tohoku Earthquake?

The lessons we have learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) how this knowledge will affect our future observation and analysis is the main focus of this presentation.We present multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. These observations revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to theM9.0 Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which indicates s new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere, as related to underlying tectonic activity. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004). For the Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows a synergy between several independent observations characterizing the state of the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes, namely: (i) Foreshock sequence change (rate, space and time); (ii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; and (iii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations. We are presenting a cross-disciplinary analysis of the observed pre-earthquake anomalies and will discuss current research in the detection of these signals in Japan. We expect that our analysis will shed light on the underlying physics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquake events

Ouzounov, D.↗

Numerical prediction experiments related to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The GLA (Goddard Laboratory for Atmosphere) fourth-order model predictions of the summer 1980 heat wave are examined to assess the skill of the model in numerically forecasting the initiation of the heat wave and the sensitivity of the model predictions to initial conditions and boundary forcing. Results of experiments indicate that the model predictions are sensitive to the initial conditions. The sensitivity of the model to anomalous boundary forcing is found to be generally larger than its sensitivity to initial conditions at extended ranges. The results of the study suggest that models may be useful in forecasting similar events if adequate determinations of the evolving boundary forcing can be made in real time.

Atlas, R.↗

Monitoring of International Space Station Telemetry Using Shewhart Control Charts

Shewhart control charts have been established as an expedient method for analyzing dynamic, trending data in order to identify anomalous subsystem performance as soon as such performance would exceed a statistically established baseline. Additionally, this leading indicator tool integrates a selection methodology that reduces false positive indications, optimizes true leading indicator events, minimizes computer processor unit duty cycles, and addresses human factor concerns (i.e., the potential for flight-controller data overload). This innovation leverages statistical process control, and provides a relatively simple way to allow flight controllers to focus their attention on subtle system changes that could lead to dramatic off-nominal system performance. Finally, this capability improves response time to potential hardware damage and/or crew injury, thereby improving space flight safety. Shewhart control charts require normalized data. However, the telemetry from the ISS Early External Thermal Control System (EETCS) was not normally distributed. A method for normalizing the data was implemented, as was a means of selecting data windows, the number of standard deviations (Sigma Level), the number of consecutive points out of limits (Sequence), and direction (increasing or decreasing trend data). By varying these options, and treating them like dial settings, the number of nuisance alerts and leading indicators were optimized. The goal was to capture all leading indicators while minimizing the number of nuisances. Lean Six Sigma (L6S) design of experiment methodologies were employed. To optimize the results, Perl programming language was used to automate the massive amounts of telemetry data, control chart plots, and the data analysis.

Fitch, Jeffery T.↗

Challenges for unsupervised anomaly detection in particle physics

Anomaly detection relies on designing a score to determine whether a particular event is uncharacteristic of a given background distribution. One way to define a score is to use autoencoders, which rely on the ability to reconstruct certain types of data (background) but not others (signals). In this paper, we study some challenges associated with variational autoencoders, such as the dependence on hyperparameters and the metric used, in the context of anomalous signal (top and W) jets in a QCD background. We find that the hyperparameter choices strongly affect the network performance and that the optimal parameters for one signal are non-optimal for another. In exploring the networks, we uncover a connection between the latent space of a variational autoencoder trained using mean-squared-error and the optimal transport distances within the dataset. We then show that optimal transport distances to representative events in the background dataset can be used directly for anomaly detection, with performance comparable to the autoencoders. Whether using autoencoders or optimal transport distances for anomaly detection, we find that the choices that best represent the background are not necessarily best for signal identification. These challenges with unsupervised anomaly detection bolster the case for additional exploration of semi-supervised or alternative approaches.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗