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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Soft and transferable pseudopotentials from multi-objective optimization

Ab initio pseudopotentials are a linchpin of modern molecular and condensed matter electronic structure calculations. In this work, we employ multi-objective optimization to maximize pseudopotential softness while maintaining high accuracy and transferability. To accomplish this, we develop a formulation in which softness and accuracy are simultaneously maximized, with accuracy determined by the ability to reproduce all-electron energy differences between Bravais lattice structures, whereupon the resulting Pareto frontier is scanned for the softest pseudopotential that provides the desired accuracy in established transferability tests. We employ an evolutionary algorithm to solve the multi-objective optimization problem and apply it to generate a comprehensive table of optimized norm-conserving Vanderbilt (ONCV) pseudopotentials (https://github.com/SPARC-X/SPMS-psps). Here, we show that the resulting table is softer than existing tables of comparable accuracy, while more accurate than tables of comparable softness. The potentials thus afford the possibility to speed up calculations in a broad range of applications areas while maintaining high accuracy.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

A parallel and performance portable implementation of a full-field crystal plasticity model

We have developed a parallel implementation of an Elasto-Viscoplastic Fast Fourier Transform-based (EVPFFT) micromechanical solver to enable computationally efficient crystal plasticity modeling for polycrystalline materials. Our primary focus lies in achieving performance portability, allowing a single EVPFFT implementation to run optimally on various homogeneous architectures, including multi-core Central Processing Units (CPUs), as well as on heterogeneous computer architectures comprising multi-core CPUs and Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) from different vendors. To accomplish this goal, we have leveraged MATAR, a C++ software library that simplifies the creation and utilization of multidimensional dense or sparse matrix and array data structures. These data structures are designed to be portable across diverse architectures through the use of Kokkos, a performance-portable library. Additionally, we have employed the Message Passing Interface (MPI) to efficiently distribute the computational workload among processors. The heFFTe (Highly Efficient FFT for Exascale) library is used to facilitate the performance portability of the fast Fourier transforms (FFTs) computation. The computational performance of EVPFFT is evaluated and presented in terms of parallel scalability and simulation runtime on different high-performance computing (HPC) architectures. As a result, the utility of the developed framework to efficiently simulate the micro-mechanical fields in polycrystalline microstructures in engineering applications is discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carbon dots from surface-capping/passivation of small carbon nanoparticles with nanoscale titanium dioxide

Carbon dots are classically defined as small carbon nanoparticles (CNPs) with effective surface passivation, which has been accomplished predominantly by surface organic functionalization. In the current work, the passivation is achieved by the surface coating of CNPs with nanoscale TiO 2 for CNP/TiO 2 core/shell nanostructures, which are analogous to conventional semiconductor core/shell quantum dots (QDs). The TiO 2 capping of CNPs results in substantial enhancements in the fluorescence quantum yields, also analogous to the similar enhancements famously known for the semiconductor QDs. In conclusion, mechanistic implications of the findings, including the associated further validation on the classical definition of carbon dots, are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

The transformation of diamond to graphite: Experiments reveal the presence of an intermediate linear carbon phase

Natural diamonds that have been partially replaced by graphite have been observed to occur in natural rocks. While the graphite-to-diamond phase transition has been extensively studied the opposite of this (diamond to graphite) remains poorly understood. We performed high-pressure and temperature hydrous and anhydrous experiments up to 1.0 GPa and 1300 °C using Amplex premium virgin synthetic diamonds (20–40 μm size) as the starting material mixed with Mg(OH) 2 as a source of H 2 O for the hydrous experiments. The experiments revealed that the diamond-to-graphite transformation at P = 1.0 GPa and T = 1300 °C was triggered by the presence of H 2 O and was accomplished through a three-stage process. Stage 1: diamond reacts with a supercritical H 2 O producing an intermediate 200–500 nm size “globular carbon” phase. This phase is a linear carbon chain; i.e. a polyyne or carbyne. Stage 2: the linear carbon chains are unstable and highly reactive, and they decompose by zigzagging and cross-linking to form sp 2 -hybridized structures. Stage 3: normal, disordered, and onion-like graphite is produced by the decomposition of the sp-hybridized carbon chains which are re-organized into sp 2 bonds. Our experiments show that there is no direct transformation from sp 3 C-bonds into sp 2 C-bonds. Our hydrous high-pressure and high-temperature experiments show that the diamond-to-graphite transformation requires an intermediate metastable phase of a linear hydrocarbon. This process also provides a simple mechanism for the substitution of other elements into the graphite structure (e.g. H, S, O).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A scalable framework for quantifying field-level agricultural carbon outcomes

Agriculture contributes nearly a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is motivating interest in adopting certain farming practices that have the potential to reduce GHG emissions or sequester carbon in soil. The related GHG emission (including N 2 O and CH 4 ) and changes in soil carbon stock are defined here as “agricultural carbon outcomes”. Accurate quantification of agricultural carbon outcomes is the basis for achieving emission reductions for agriculture, but existing approaches for measuring carbon outcomes (including direct measurements, emission factors, and process-based modeling) fall short of achieving the required accuracy and scalability necessary to support credible, verifiable, and cost-effective measurement and improvement of these carbon outcomes. Here we propose a foundational and scalable framework to quantify field-level carbon outcomes for farmland, which is based on the holistic carbon balance of the agroecosystem: Agroecosystem Carbon Outcomes = Environment (E) × Management (M) × Crop (C). Following a comprehensive review of the scientific challenges associated with existing approaches, as well as their tradeoffs between cost and accuracy, we propose that the most viable path for the quantification of field-level carbon outcomes in agricultural land is through an effective integration of various approaches (e.g. diverse observations, sensor/in-situ data, and modeling), defined as the “System-of-Systems” solution. Such a “System-of-Systems” solution should simultaneously comprise the following components: (1) scalable collection of ground truth data and cross-scale sensing of environment variables (E), management practices (M), and crop conditions (C) at the local field level; (2) advanced modeling with necessary processes to support the quantification of carbon outcomes; (3) systematic Model-Data Fusion (MDF), i.e. robust and efficient methods to integrate sensing data and models at each local farmland level; (4) high computation efficiency and artificial intelligence (AI) to scale to millions of individual fields with low cost; and (5) robust and multi-tier validation systems and infrastructures to ensure solution fidelity and true scalability, i.e. the ability of a solution to perform robustly with accepted accuracy on all targeted fields. In this regard, we provide here the detailed scientific rationale, current progress, and future research and development (R&D) priorities to achieve different components of the “System-of-Systems” solution, thus accomplishing the Environment×Management×Crop framework to quantify field-level agricultural carbon outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of hybrid evaporative-vapor compression air conditioners for different global climates

Currently, a majority of global residential air-conditioning requirements are met using cooling systems based on the vapor compression cycle (VCC). To meet the future demand for space cooling and to reduce the corresponding environmental impact, there is a need for alternative cooling systems which require less resources and exhibit a higher coefficient of performance (COP). One of proposed alternatives is called the hybrid evaporative-vapor compression (HEVC) cycle, which utilizes adiabatic latent cooling in combination with the VCC. In this paper, we conducted a feasibility analysis of a HEVC system by comparing its performance to that of VCC for various global climates. To accomplish this, we developed and validated models to simulate the performance of residential VCC and HEVC systems. ASHRAE weather data and design conditions were then used to compare the performance of the two systems. In general, HEVC systems are best suited for hot arid climates with energy reduction greater than 20%. Conversely, humid climates are not suitable for HEVC adoption due to degraded performance of evaporative coolers in these climates. In addition to comparing the energy savings from HEVC systems, it is also critical to analyze their water consumption. Generally, climates that benefit the most from HEVC technology tend to also experience water scarcity issues. Thus, both the energy savings and water consumption of HEVC systems must be analyzed to guide the discussion on their adoption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of cooling setpoint setback savings in commercial buildings using electricity and exterior temperature time series data

Commercial buildings account for a significant amount of total energy produced in the US, and the Heating Ventilation and Cooling (HVAC) systems are one of the most significant components of their overall consumption. In this study, we proposed a new data-driven approach to evaluate HVAC cooling systems in commercial buildings and identify savings opportunities. The focus is an investigation of the impact of thermostat setpoint setback but using only whole building, electricity data taken at 15-min intervals for the analysis. We conducted a comparative study of setpoint setback characteristics on 432 commercial buildings with 5 building usage types across the United States. To accomplish this, both piecewise and Random Forest regression algorithms were employed using electricity and exterior temperature datasets to identify operational characteristics and the effective setpoints in the building to determine the corresponding savings opportunities. Both occupied and unoccupied time periods were studied across cooling degree days (CDD), when air conditioning is typically operational. Here the results show that in commercial buildings, on average, cooling systems account for 9.5% of total consumption. When a one degree setback during the cooling season is applied, an average of approximately 1.1% of annual consumption is achieved; retail and office buildings demonstrate the highest potential for savings. Additionally, we identified that the number of cooling degree days and base to peak ratio (BPR) are the most important variables for predicting the magnitude of the consumption of cooling systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-decadal trends in mercury and methylmercury concentrations in the brown watersnake (Nerodia taxispilota)

Mercury (Hg) is an environmental contaminant that poses a threat to aquatic systems globally. Temporal evaluations of Hg contamination have increased in recent years, with studies focusing on how anthropogenic activities impact Hg bioavailability in a variety of aquatic systems. While it is common for these studies and ecological risk assessments to evaluate Hg bioaccumulation and effects in wildlife, there is a paucity of information regarding Hg dynamics in reptiles. The goal of this study was to investigate temporal patterns in total mercury (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations across a 36-year period, as well as evaluate relationships among and between destructive (kidney, liver, muscle) and non-destructive (blood, tail) tissue types in a common watersnake species. To accomplish this, we measured THg and MeHg concentrations in multiple tissues from brown watersnakes (Nerodia taxispilota) collected from Steel Creek on the Savannah River Site (SRS; Aiken, SC, USA) from two time periods (1983–1986 and 2019). We discovered significant and positive relationships between tail tips and destructive tissues. In both time periods, THg concentrations varied significantly by tissue type, and destructive tissues exhibited higher but predictable THg values relative to tail tissue. Methylmercury concentrations did not differ among tissues from the 1980s but was significantly higher in muscle compared to other tissues from snakes collected in 2019. Percent MeHg of THg in N. taxispilota tissues mirrored patterns reported in other reptiles, although the range of % MeHg in liver and kidney differed between time periods. Both THg and MeHg concentrations in N. taxispilota declined significantly from the 1980s to 2019, with average values 1.6 to 4-fold lower in contemporary samples. Overall, our data add further evidence to the utility of watersnakes to monitor Hg pollution in aquatic environments and suggest attenuation of this contaminant in watersnakes in our study system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Changing bioavailability of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances ($\mathrm{PFAS}$) to plant in biosolids amended soil through stabilization or mobilization

Biosolids containing per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) could contaminate the receiving environments once they are land applied. In this report, we evaluated the feasibility of controlling the bioavailability of PFAS in biosolids to timothy-grass through stabilization or mobilization approaches. Stabilization was accomplished by adding a sorbent (i.e. granular activated carbon (GAC), RemBind, biochar) to biosolids, while mobilization was achieved by adding a surfactant, sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS), to biosolids. The results showed that the ΣPFAS concentration in grass shoots grown in biosolids amended soil treated by GAC or RemBind at 2% was only 2.77% and 3.35% of the ΣPFAS concentration detected in shoots grown in biosolids amended soil without a sorbent, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of GAC and RemBind for stabilizing PFAS and reduce their bioavailability. On the other hand, mobilization by adding SDS to biosolids at a dose range of 10–100 mg/kg significantly increased the plant uptake of ΣPFAS by 15.48%–108.57%. Thus, mobilization by adding SDS could be a valuable approach for enhancing the PFAS removal if phytoremediation is applied. Moreover, higher rate of PFAS uptake took place after grass cutting was observed in this study. Thus, proper mowing and regrowth of timothy-grass could lead to efficient and cost-effective removal of PFAS from biosolids amended soil through phytoremediation and leave the site clean to be used for other purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Watershed Workflow: A toolset for parameterizing data-intensive, integrated hydrologic models

Integrated, distributed hydrologic models leverage advances in computational power and data accessibility to improve predictive understanding of the water cycle. While impressive advances in this area of environmental modeling have been accomplished, such models are still rarely used, partially because of difficulty integrating model and data. This research describes the release of Watershed Workflow version 1.2, a new library aiming to automate and enable complex workflows defining inputs to high resolution, integrated, distributed hydrologic models. Watershed Workflow provides tools enabling the discovery, acquisition, mapping, and coordination of watershed geometry, land cover, soil properties, and meteorological data. It enables the construction of unstructured meshes that incorporate this data, and provides tools for automating a “first” simulation on any watershed in the United States. We present the design of the workflow tool, and describe best practices for its usage, culminating in a final example from watershed specification to simulation at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory.

Integrated hydrologic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Off-policy deep reinforcement learning with automatic entropy adjustment for adaptive online grid emergency control

Electric overloading conditions and contingencies put modern power systems at risk of voltage collapse and blackouts. Load shedding is crucial to maintain voltage stability for grid emergency control. However, the rule- or model-based schemes rely on accurate dynamic system models and face considerable challenges in adapting to various operating conditions and uncertain event occurrences. Here, to address these issues, this paper proposes a novel deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based voltage stability control algorithm with automatic entropy adjustment (AEA) for grid emergency control. Various dynamic network components for complex system operations are modeled to construct the DRL environment. An off-policy soft actor-critic architecture is developed to maximize the expected reward and policy entropy simultaneously. The AEA mechanism is proposed to facilitate the policy maximum entropy procedure, and the proposed method can automatically provide effective discrete and continuous actions against various fault scenarios. Our approach accomplishes high sampling efficiency, scalability, and auto-adaptivity of the control policies under high uncertainties. Comparative studies with the existing DRL-based control methods in IEEE benchmarks indicate salient performance improvement of the proposed method for dynamic system emergency control.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neural-based time series forecasting of loss of coolant accidents in nuclear power plants

During the last few years, deep learning in neural networks has demonstrated impressive successes in the areas of computer vision, speech and image recognition, text generation, and many others. However, sensitive engineering areas such as nuclear engineering benefited less from these efficient techniques. In this work, deep learning expert systems are utilized to model and predict time series progression of a design-basis nuclear accident, featuring a loss of coolant accident. Two major findings are accomplished in this work. First, the ability to train expert systems with high accuracy, which could help nuclear power plant operators to figure out plant responses during the accident. Second, building fast, efficient, and accurate deep models to simulate nuclear phenomena, which could be valuable to nuclear computational science. In this work, large amount of time series data is obtained from simulation tools by simulating different conditions of the base-case/nominal accident scenario. Four critical outputs/responses are monitored during the accident (e.g. temperature, pressure, break flow rate, water level). Two approaches are adopted in this work. The first approach is to use feedforward deep neural networks (DNN) to fit all time steps and outputs in a single model. The second approach is to use long short-term memory (LSTM) to fit all time steps together for each reactor response separately. Both DNN and LSTM demonstrate very good performance in predicting the test and base-case scenarios, with accuracy as low as 92% and as high as 99%, where these test scenarios are unknown to the expert systems and are not included in the model training. In addition, both approaches demonstrate a significant reduction in computational costs, as the deep expert system is able to accurately predict the accident 100,000 times faster than the original simulation tool. Given sufficient data, the methodology adopted in this study demonstrates that DNN/LSTM expert systems can be used as a decision support system to model advanced time series phenomena within nuclear power plants with high accuracy and negligible computational costs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synthesis and morphological characterization of linear and miktoarm star poly(solketal methacrylate)- block -polystyrene copolymers

The synthesis, molecular characterization, and morphological evaluation of AB n, (n = 2,3) miktoarm star block copolymers consisting of poly(glycerol monomethacrylate) (PGMA) and polystyrene (PS) with varying molecular weights and compositions is described. The system is known to demonstrate a remarkably high Flory-Huggins interaction parameter. The corresponding linear diblock copolymer analogues, were synthesized as well, and comparisons with regard to feature dimensions and morphologies are provided. Well-ordered nanostructures of various morphologies were formed with domain spacing as low as 7.2 nm. Different morphologies were attained by some of the topological isomers indicating that in miktoarm star block copolymers the phase boundaries were strongly shifted. Additionally, a triblock ABA analogue was studied to investigate the effect of triblock copolymer conformations. Noteworthy is that for copolymers with different macromolecular architecture leading to similar morphology; different domain spacings were obtained. The synthesis of all the samples was carried out by high-vacuum anionic polymerization techniques. Molecular characterization with Size Exclusion Chromatography (SEC) and Proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy ( 1 H NMR) confirmed well-defined copolymers obtained. The morphological characterization was accomplished by Small-Angle X-ray Scattering (SAXS). In conclusion, the observations from this study highlight the potential of incorporating macromolecular architecture in the self-assembly of strongly immiscible block copolymers to attain ultra-small nanofeatures with desired morphologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of advanced diesel combustion operation and fuel formulation on soot nanostructure and reactivity

Advanced diesel combustion, accomplished via a single pulse fuel injection and high levels of exhaust gas recirculation (referred to as “PCCI”, partially-premixed charge compression ignition), is shown to be a path to reduce oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter simultaneously. This is well established in the literature. Less established is the extent to which such dilute combustion processes influence soot formation and affect soot that is emitted from diesel engines under such combustion modes. This work focuses on characterization of the nanostructure and oxidative reactivity of soot generated by a light-duty turbodiesel engine operating under a PCCI combustion mode, a dilute, low-temperature combustion process. Previous work on a type of PCCI combustion, referred to as high-efficiency clean combustion (HECC), showed soot samples having a fullerenic nanostructure, characterized by high levels of tortuosity of the fringe layers as seen in transmission electron micrograph images and as quantified using an image processing algorithm. Thermogravimetric analysis of the HECC mode soot samples showed that they displayed higher rates of oxidation than soot samples from a conventional diesel combustion mode. The present work returns to PCCI combustion, considering the timing of the main fuel injection, and the effects of operating on fuels rich in n-alkanes, particularly a fuel produced from a low temperature Fischer-Tropsch process (LTFT) and a renewable diesel fuel (RD) produced via hydrodeoxygenation of a plant oil. PCCI combustion conditions yield soot that shows higher reactivity compared to soot from the conventional combustion mode regardless of fuel type. LTFT and RD fuels produce soots with lower reactivity compared to ULSD. Soots produced from PCCI combustion have higher surface oxygen concentration and higher proportion of amorphous carbon. In addition, TEM images show that PCCI soots from all three fuels have smaller primary particle and particle aggregate sizes, and smaller graphene layers. These properties explain the higher reactivity of soot from PCCI combustion. The less reactive soots, which are produced from LTFT and RD fuel under conventional combustion, show internal burning during oxidation. However, soots with higher reactivity which are produced from late injection PCCI combustion and ULSD show shrinking core oxidation, most likely because of their overall amorphous structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The development of a Sustained High Power Density (SHPD) facility

A Sustained High Power Density (SHPD) facility is being planned within the U.S. as a non DT device which can be a bridge to a Compact Fusion Pilot Plant (CFPP) DT operated facility with the future capacity to produce a levelised cost of electricity at a rate competitive with current power generating systems. To accomplish this a review of ITER cost data and recent next step physics/engineering studies that promoted technology development, physics enhancements and innovated configuration improvements that increase operating availability have been injected into a proposed PPPL SHPD design. Much of the physics and engineering design basis for this effort centers on a series of ST studies carried out in recent years attempting to maximize the low aspect ratio (AR) ST performance within realistic engineering constraints of this compact fusion device. One issue found in the low AR design is the lack of volt-seconds generated by a small central solenoid that resides in the available space left after sizing the TF structure to support the high current density/HTS TF coil. Although not required in a larger pilot plant device, a solenoid wrapped around the plasma side of the SC TF coil was considered for the small low aspect ratio SHPD device. Adding a solenoid to the plasma side of the TF imposes a major change to the device configuration – a change which has been found to have cost and assembly issues when compared with an OH solenoid located at the machine center. Finally, the inclusion of a liquid metal first wall divertor system, the integration of local pairs of outboard DCLL blanket segments and a summary of physics performance conditions will be presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiation effects on stress evolution and dimensional stability of large fusion energy structures

Here we assess the effects of neutron irradiation on the deformation and stress evolution of large-scale fusion energy structures. This is accomplished through non-linear finite element structural analysis of the coupled thermal and mechanical fields at the Beginning-Of-Life (BOL), at 45 dpa, and at 90 dpa. Radiation effects include volumetric swelling and the influence of radiation on the mechanical properties. The system studied here is a large section of a full inboard module of an integrated structure comprising the First Wall and Blanket (FW/B) of a Dual Cooled Lithium-Lead (DCLL) energy conversion unit in the Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF). The structural material is the ferritic/martensitic steel F82H. We analyze several radiation effects phenomena that can lead to significant impact on the mechanical design and lifetime of the structure. These include volumetric swelling effects on the assembly and disassembly of modules and the impact of spatial gradients in neutron damage and helium generation on deformation, stress evolution, and plastic strain accumulation. We show that the stress state is strongly influenced by the accumulation of swelling strains, radiation hardening and softening, and by spatial gradients in displacement damage and helium gas generation. Several key regions in the FW/B structure are identified where severe plastic strains accumulate and may be potential sites for failure, especially during cyclic reactor operations. We finally show that minimum gaps between Inboard (IB) blanket sectors must be present during assembly so as to avoid excessive stress and strain in FW/B modules critical regions and raising chances of failure. A range of structural displacements are shown, from as low as 4 mm at BOL for free side walls to as high as 46 mm at 90 dpa for fully constrained side walls.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Preliminary proof-of-concept of real-time divertor heat flux control from infrared cameras with nitrogen injection in the DIII-D tokamak

In future tokamak reactors like ITER and the Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP), real-time feedback control of heat flux to the plasma-facing components (PFC) will be critical for steady-state operation. This work presents the first experimental demonstration of real-time divertor heat flux estimation with infrared thermography and feedback control with impurity seeding on the DIII-D tokamak. The flexible infrastructure of the Plasma Control System (PCS) on DIII-D makes this new capability possible. The PCS software runs on a gateway computer system, and five real-time compute nodes. An array of low latency streaming digitizers from D-TACQ Solutions connects to these real-time computers to collect and process data, and send commands to actuators during plasma discharges. This system handles the signal IO from the tokamak and allows the PCS to utilize the diagnostic data necessary to perform control in real-time. Feedback control on heat flux was accomplished by feeding infrared camera data from the “Infrared TV” (IRTV) camera to a custom-developed User Datagram Protocol (UDP) server. This server transmits infrared data to a newly developed PCS algorithm that estimates the heat flux to PFC. Here, a proportional integral derivative (PID) controller minimizes the error between a heat flux reference and the real-time estimate by injecting nitrogen gas into the divertor.

Algorithm development↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable Generation of High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the U.S. via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. The study involves two scenarios: creating ensembles for (1) 17 U.S. metropolitan areas in 2019 and (2) full U.S. Census Divisions in 2023, with each scenario consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system within a research cloud, comprised of virtual containerizations, GPU-enhanced functionality, and orchestrated deployments of UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. Results demonstrate we maintained high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by areas of interest and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods while reducing manual workflow burdens. Finally, we discuss plans to fine-tune and further develop our automated workflows for truly distributed job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide an outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Cluster computing↗