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At least 343 records · Page 19

Microburst vertical wind estimation from horizontal wind measurements

The vertical wind or downdraft component of a microburst-generated wind shear can significantly degrade airplane performance. Doppler radar and lidar are two sensor technologies being tested to provide flight crews with early warning of the presence of hazardous wind shear. An inherent limitation of Doppler-based sensors is the inability to measure velocities perpendicular to the line of sight, which results in an underestimate of the total wind shear hazard. One solution to the line-of-sight limitation is to use a vertical wind model to estimate the vertical component from the horizontal wind measurement. The objective of this study was to assess the ability of simple vertical wind models to improve the hazard prediction capability of an airborne Doppler sensor in a realistic microburst environment. Both simulation and flight test measurements were used to test the vertical wind models. The results indicate that in the altitude region of interest (at or below 300 m), the simple vertical wind models improved the hazard estimate. The radar simulation study showed that the magnitude of the performance improvement was altitude dependent. The altitude of maximum performance improvement occurred at about 300 m.

Vicroy, Dan D.↗

Development of high resolution simulations of the atmospheric environment using the MASS model

Numerical simulations were performed with a very high resolution (7.25 km) version of the MASS model (Version 4.0) in an effort to diagnose the vertical wind shear and static stability structure during the Shuttle Challenger disaster which occurred on 28 January 1986. These meso-beta scale simulations reveal that the strongest vertical wind shears were concentrated in the 200 to 150 mb layer at 1630 GMT, i.e., at about the time of the disaster. These simulated vertical shears were the result of two primary dynamical processes. The juxtaposition of both of these processes produced a shallow (30 mb deep) region of strong vertical wind shear, and hence, low Richardson number values during the launch time period. Comparisons with the Cape Canaveral (XMR) rawinsonde indicates that the high resolution MASS 4.0 simulation more closely emulated nature than did previous simulations of the same event with the GMASS model.

Kaplan, Michael L.↗

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded again by six years, from October 1996 to April 2002, by interpolating 1000-ft sounding data to 100-ft increments. The Phase II developmental data set included observations for the cool season months of October 1996 to February 2007. The AMU calculated 68 candidate predictors from the XMR soundings, to include 19 stability parameters, 48 wind speed parameters and one wind shear parameter. Each day in the data set was stratified by synoptic weather pattern, low-level wind direction, precipitation and Richardson Number, for a total of 60 stratification methods. Linear regression equations, using the 68 predictors and 60 stratification methods, were created for the tool's three forecast parameters: the highest peak wind speed of the day (PWSD), 5-minute average speed at the same time (A WSD), and timing of the PWSD. For PWSD and A WSD, 30 Phase II methods were selected for evaluation in the verification data set. For timing of the PWSD, 12 Phase\I methods were selected for evaluation. The verification data set contained observations for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The data set was used to compare the Phase I and II forecast methods to climatology, model forecast winds and wind advisories issued by the 45 WS. The model forecast winds were derived from the 0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the 12-km North American Mesoscale (MesoNAM) model. The forecast methods that performed the best in the verification data set were selected for the Phase II version of the tool. For PWSD and A WSD, linear regression equations based on MesoNAM forecasts performed significantly better than the Phase I and II methods. For timing of the PWSD, none of the methods performed significantly bener than climatology. The AMU then developed the Microsoft Excel and MIDDS GUls. The GUIs display the forecasts for PWSD, AWSD and the probability the PWSD will meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. Since none of the prediction methods for timing of the PWSD performed significantly better thanlimatology, the tool no longer displays this predictand. The Excel and MIDDS GUIs display forecasts for Day-I to Day-3 and Day-I to Day-5, respectively. The Excel GUI uses MesoNAM forecasts as input, while the MIDDS GUI uses input from the MesoNAM and Global Forecast System model. Based on feedback from the 45 WS, the AMU added the daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft to the tool, which is one of the parameters in the 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45 WS. In addition, the AMU expanded the MIDDS GUI to include forecasts out to Day-7.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Low-level flow conditions hazardous to aircraft

Low level flow conditions known to be hazardous to aircraft during takeoff/climbout and approach/landing operations are turbulence, wind shear, and vertical motion. These conditions can and frequently do occur separately and in combinations. The identification and selection were completed of representative data cases to determine magnitude, frequency, duration, and simultaneity of occurrence of turbulence (gustiness and gust factor), wind shear (speed and direction), and vertical motion (updraft and downdraft), along with temperature inversions. New representations of temporal and spatial variations in the atmospheric boundary layer were developed. Efforts continued relative to low level flow conditions where published results imply strong vertical shear with virtually no horizontal shear and where order of magnitude analyses of the equations of motion for an aircraft illustrates that low values of horizontal shear (along the flight path) are much more hazardous than larger values of vertical wind shear (altitude).

Alexander, M. B.↗

Turbulence models

The subject of modeling turbulence for use with the JAWS wind shear data sets is addressed. The present FAA AC 120-41 wind shear models are quasisteady wind models. FAA recommends superimposing upon these winds a Dryden spectrum model of turbulence. For the JAWS data, it must be decided whether this approach is adequate or whether turbulence must be analyzed and modeled differently. This question is discussed in detail.

Frost, Walter↗

Internal gravity wave-atmospheric wind interaction - A cause of clear air turbulence.

The interaction between an internal gravity wave (IGW) and a vertical wind shear is discussed as a possible cause in the production of clear air turbulence in the free atmosphere. It is shown that under certain typical condition the interaction of an IGW with a background wind shear near a critical level provides a mechanism for depositing sufficient momentum in certain regions of the atmosphere to significantly increase the local mean wind shear and to lead to the production of turbulence.

Bekofske, K.↗

A further study of cumulus interactions and mergers - Three-dimensional simulations with trajectory analysis

Cumulus processes involved in the interaction and merging of clouds under the influence of different imposed conditions (including large-scale lifting forcing, environmental wind shear, and cloud microphysical processes) were studied using simulations with a three-dimensional model. The design of the study was to generate several convective clouds randomly inside the model domain, and then to observe and analyze the interactions and merging between the simulated clouds. Ten merged clouds were identified. Seven of these, each involving two previously separated clouds, generally lie along a line parallel to the initial environmental wind shear vector, while one (also a two-cloud system) lies along a line perpendicular to the wind shear vector prior to merging. The remaining two merging systems involve three parent clouds each; they are a combination of parallel and perpendicular cells. The merging mechanisms associated with three-cloud merging cases are studied by examining the temperature, pressure, and wind fields prior to, during, and following the merging.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

The effect of heavy rain on windshear attributed accidents

In recent years several commercial aircraft accidents have occurred as an aircraft attempted landing in a thunderstorm cell. The horizontal and vertical windshear associated with the cell have been identified as the factors responsible for the accident. In addition to the wind shear encounter, several of these aircraft simultaneously penetrated a heavy rain cell. Heavy rain affects the aircraft by imparting a momentum penalty, and a drag penalty, due to the rain roughening of the airfoil. These penalties have been evaluated by a computer model that, when incorporated with a landing simulation program, was used to assess the relative influence of heavy rain versus wind shear. Using this model, an assessment was made of the influence of heavy rain on several wind shear attributed accidents.

Luers, J. K.↗

A microcomputer program for estimating low altitude wind and turbulence fields

Past efforts to develop methods for objective wind analysis and to provide turbulence estimates to pilots are reviewed. The present approach involves a wind module and a turbulence module. The wind module extends the critical dividing streamline concept and past developments in mass-conserving wind interpolation schemes. The turbulence module is based on recent efforts to develop practical atmospheric turbulence parameterization schemes based on lapse rate, wind shear, surface heating, and surface roughness. The lapse rate and wind shear are readily obtained from the wind module. Surface roughness and heating come from land use information and net radiation estimates derived from cloud cover, terrain slope, local time, and latitude. This system is argued to have considerable potential for providing useful online information for many kinds of aircraft operations.

Ludwig, F. L.↗

Target pitch angle for the microburst escape maneuver

Recovery performance of a commuter-type aircraft in a microburst encounter is studied using a constant-pitch-attitude strategy and flight path optimization. Results obtained indicate that the pitch attitude which maximized climb rate in a wind shear condition is strongly dependent on whether the aircraft is subjected to a horizontal shear or a downdraft. The pitch attitude which maximizes ground clearance depends on the altitude of the encounter, the strength of the microburst, and the initial position of the aircraft with respect to the downburst core. Best results are obtained at relatively low target pitch angles, in severe wind shear encounters at very low altitudes. A technique for maximizing ground clearance involves maintaining a low pitch attitude early in the encounter, followed by a gradual pitch-up that ceases when the wind shear has been excited.

Mulgund, Sandeep S.↗

Investigation of aircraft landing in variable wind fields

A digital simulation study is reported of the effects of gusts and wind shear on the approach and landing of aircraft. The gusts and wind shear are primarily those associated with wind fields created by surface wind passing around bluff geometries characteristic of buildings. Also, flight through a simple model of a thunderstorm is investigated. A two-dimensional model of aircraft motion was represented by a set of nonlinear equations which accounted for both spatial and temporal variations of winds. The landings of aircraft with the characteristics of a DC-8 and a DHC-6 were digitally simulated under different wind conditions with fixed and automatic controls. The resulting deviations in touchdown points and the controls that are required to maintain the desired flight path are presented. The presence of large bluff objects, such as buildings in the flight path is shown to have considerable effect on aircraft landings.

Frost, W.↗

[Summary of Research on Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones]

The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance flights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 meters per second and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of, rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intensify. Despite the subsequent weakening of the reformed center, it reached land with greater intensity than the original center. It is argued that this intensification process was set into motion by the vertical wind shear in the presence of an environment with upward motion forced by the upper tropospheric trough. In addition, the new center formed much closer to the coast and made landfall much earlier than predicted. Such vertical shear-induced intensity and track fluctuations are important to understand, especially in storms approaching the coast. The structures of the highly sheared tropical storm Chantal During CAMEX-4 is also discussed.

Source record↗

Numerical and flight simulator test of the flight deterioration concept

Manned flight simulator response to theoretical wind shear profiles was studied in an effort to calibrate fixed-stick and pilot-in-the-loop numerical models of jet transport aircraft on approach to landing. Results of the study indicate that both fixed-stick and pilot-in-the-loop models overpredict the deleterious effects of aircraft approaches when compared to pilot performance in the manned simulator. Although the pilot-in-the-loop model does a better job than does the fixed-stick model, the study suggests that the pilot-in-the-loop model is suitable for use in meteorological predictions of adverse low-level wind shear along approach and departure courses to identify situations in which pilots may find difficulty. The model should not be used to predict the success or failure of a specific aircraft. It is suggested that the pilot model be used as part of a ground-based Doppler radar low-level wind shear detection and warning system.

Mccarthy, J.↗

A spectral analysis of thunderstorm turbulence and jet transport landing performance

A description is presented of a study which examines not only wind shear, but considers the velocity spectrum of the wind, as it may affect the flight of an aircraft. A model reported by McCarthy and Blick (1976) and by Blick et al. (1978) is considered. The model simulated the approach performance of a Boeing 727-type aircraft, as affected by the time series winds measured along the aircraft's longitudinal axis. Attention is given to the model and its implications, wind shear simulations, and the use of the model in the study of a crash on June 24, 1975.

Mccarthy, J.↗

Reevaluating the Role of Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet provides an energy source for the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In this study, multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, CALIPSO, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to see if the proposed negative influences deserve all of the attention they have recently received. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the African jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is typically stronger in storms that intensify than those that weaken, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear is not a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. A comparison of the environments of strongly strengthening storms and of weakening storms shows no differences in SAL structure, indicating that the SAL has little influence on whether storms weaken or intensify. The large-scale flow at upper levels above the SAL was found to be most important, with the environment of strengthening storms having very little vertical wind shear and also favoring more expansive outflow from the storm. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence (sinking air motions). Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance dryness at low levels, but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid-to-upper-level dryness is not a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead a signature of subsidence. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not the major negative influence on hurricanes that recent studies have emphasized. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Investigation of air transportation technology at Princeton University, 1988-1989

The Air Transportation Technology Program at Princeton University, a program emphasizing graduate and undergraduate student research, proceeded along several avenues during the past year. A study of optimal trajectories for penetration of microbursts when encounter is unavoidable was conducted. The emphasis of current wind shear research is on developing an expert system for wind shear avoidance. A knowledge-based reconfigurable flight control system that is implemented with the Pascal programming language using parallel microprocessors was developed. This expert system could be considered a prototype for a failure-tolerant control system that can be constructed using existing hardware. Development of a real-time cockpit simulator continued during the year. The simulator provides a single-person crew station with both conventional and advanced control devices; it currently is programmed to simulate the Navion single-engine general aviation airplane. Alternatives for the air traffic control system giving particular attention to the institutional structure of the FAA are analyzed. A simple numerical procedure for estimating the stochastic robustness of control systems is being investigated. The revitalization of the general aviation industry is also discussed.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

Shallow Cumulus Entrainment Dynamics in a Sheared Environment

Abstract Vertical wind shear has long been known to tilt convective towers and reduce thermal ascent rates. The purpose of this study is to better understand the physical mechanisms responsible for reduced ascent rates in shallow convection. In particular, the study focuses on cloud-edge mass flux to assess how shear impacts mass-flux profiles of both the ensemble and individual clouds of various depths. A compositing algorithm is used to distill large-eddy simulation (LES) output to focus on up- and down-shear cloud edges that are not influenced by complex cloud geometry or nearby clouds. A direct entrainment algorithm is used to estimate the mass flux through the cloud surface. We find that the dynamics on the up- and down-shear sides are fundamentally different, with the entrainment of environmental momentum and dilution of buoyancy being primarily responsible for the reduced down-shear ascent rates. Direct estimates of fluid flow through the cloud interface indicate a counter-shear organized flow pattern that entrains on the down-shear side and detrains on the up-shear side, resulting from the subcloud shear being lifted into the cloud layer by the updraft. In spite of organized regions of entrainment and detrainment, the overall net lateral mass flux remains unchanged with respect to the no shear run, with weak detrainment present throughout cloud depth.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Measurements of wind friction speeds over lava surfaces and assessment of sediment transport

Wind velocity profiles were obtained over alluvial plains, lava flows, and a cinder cone in the Mojave Desert to determine the wind shear and the potential for particle transport. It was found that aerodynamic roughness for winds increases nearly a factor of 5 as flow crosses from the alluvium to the lava surface, resulting in wind shear that is 21 percent greater. Thus, wind erosion and sand flux may be substantially enhanced over the lava field. Moreover, wind flow turbulence is enhanced in the wake of the cinder cone, which also increases erosion and sediment transportation by the wind.

Greeley, Ronald↗