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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

H i asymmetries in LVHIS, VIVA, and HALOGAS galaxies

ABSTRACT We present an analysis of morphological, kinematic, and spectral asymmetries in observations of atomic neutral hydrogen (H i) gas from the Local Volume H i Survey (LVHIS), the VLA Imaging of Virgo in Atomic Gas (VIVA) survey, and the Hydrogen Accretion in Local Galaxies Survey. With the aim of investigating the impact of the local environment density and stellar mass on the measured H i asymmetries in future large H i surveys, we provide recommendations for the most meaningful measures of asymmetry for use in future analysis. After controlling for stellar mass, we find signs of statistically significant trends of increasing asymmetries with local density. The most significant trend we measure is for the normalized flipped spectrum residual (Aspec), with mean LVHIS and VIVA values of 0.204 ± 0.011 and 0.615 ± 0.068 at average weighted 10th nearest-neighbour galaxy number densities of log (ρ10/Mpc−3) = −1.64 and 0.88, respectively. Looking ahead to the Widefield ASKAP L-band Legacy All-sky Blind survey on the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder, we estimate that the number of detections will be sufficient to provide coverage over 5 orders of magnitude in both local density and stellar mass increasing the dynamic range and accuracy with which we can probe the effect of these properties on the asymmetry in the distribution of atomic gas in galaxies.

Reynolds, T. N.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-particle correlations in azimuthal angle and pseudorapidity in central $^7\hbox {Be}+{}^9\hbox {Be}$ collisions at the CERN Super Proton Synchrotron

A measurement of charged hadron pair correlations in two-dimensional $\Delta \eta \Delta \phi $ space is presented. The analysis is based on total 30 million central Be + Be collisions observed in the NA61/SHINE detector at the CERN SPS for incident beam momenta of 19A, 30A, 40A, 75A, and 150A $\text {Ge} \text {V}/c$. Measurements were carried out for unlike-sign and like-sign charge hadron pairs independently. The $C(\Delta \eta ,\Delta \phi )$ correlation functions were compared with results from a similar analysis on p + p interactions at similar beam momenta per nucleon. General trends of the back-to-back correlations are similar in central Be + Be collisions and p + p interactions, but are suppressed in magnitude due to the increased combinatorial background. Predictions from the Epos and UrQMD models are compared to the measurements. Evolution of an enhancement around $(\Delta \eta ,\Delta \phi ) = (0,0)$ with incident energy is observed in central Be + Be collisions. It is not predicted by both models and almost non-existing in proton–proton collisions at the same momentum per nucleon.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three-Dimensional Imaging Lidar for Characterizing Particle Fields and Organisms in the Mesopelagic Zone

The ocean’s mesopelagic zone is largely uncharacterized despite its vital role in sustaining ocean ecosystems. The composition, cycling, and fate of particle fields in the mesopelagic lacks an integrative multi-scale understanding of organism migration patterns, distribution, and diversity. This problem is addressed by combining complementary technologies with overlapping size spectra, including profiler mounted optical scattering sensors, profiler, and ship mounted acoustic devices, and a custom Unobtrusive Multi-Static Lidar Imager (UMSLI). This unique sensor suite can observe distributions of particles including organisms over a six order of magnitude dynamic size range, from microns to meters. Overlapping size ranges between different methods allows for cross-validation. This work focuses on the lidar imaging measurements and optical backscattering and attenuation, covering a combined particle size range of 0.1 mm to several cm. Particles at the small end of this range are sized using an existing backscattering time series inversion method after Briggs et al. (2013). Larger particles are resolved with UMSLI over an expanding volume using three-dimensional photo-realistic laser serial imaging. UMSLI’s image rectifying ability over time allows for derivation of particle concentration, size, and spatial distribution. Technical details on the development and post-processing methods for the novel UMSLI system are provided. Image resolved particle size distributions (PSDs) revealed a size shift from smaller to larger particles (>0.5 mm) as indicated by flatter slopes from dawn (slope = 2.6) to dusk (slope = 3.0). PSD trends are supported by an optical backscatter and transmissometer time series inversion analysis. Size shifts in the particle field are largely attributed to aggregation effects. Images support evidence of temporal variation between dusk and dawn stations through statistical analysis of particle concentrations for particle sizes 0.50–5.41 mm. Spatial analysis of the particle field revealed a dominantly uniform distributed marine snow background. The importance and potential of integrated approaches to studying particle and organism dynamics in ocean environments are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing heterogeneity of patient and health system delay among TB in a population with internal migrants in China

Backgrounds The diagnostic delay of tuberculosis (TB) contributes to further transmission and impedes the implementation of the End TB Strategy. Therefore, we aimed to describe the characteristics of patient delay, health system delay, and total delay among TB patients in Shanghai, identify areas at high risk for delay, and explore the potential factors of long delay at individual and spatial levels. Method The study included TB patients among migrants and residents in Shanghai between January 2010 and December 2018. Patient and health system delays exceeding 14 days and total delays exceeding 28 days were defined as long delays. Time trends of long delays were evaluated by Joinpoint regression. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to analyze influencing factors of long delays. Spatial analysis of delays was conducted using ArcGIS, and the hierarchical Bayesian spatial model was utilized to explore associated spatial factors. Results Overall, 61,050 TB patients were notified during the study period. Median patient, health system, and total delays were 12 days (IQR: 3–26), 9 days (IQR: 4–18), and 27 days (IQR: 15–43), respectively. Migrants, females, older adults, symptomatic visits to TB-designated facilities, and pathogen-positive were associated with longer patient delays, while pathogen-negative, active case findings and symptomatic visits to non-TB-designated facilities were associated with long health system delays (LHD). Spatial analysis revealed Chongming Island was a hotspot for patient delay, while western areas of Shanghai, with a high proportion of internal migrants and industrial parks, were at high risk for LHD. The application of rapid molecular diagnostic methods was associated with reduced health system delays. Conclusion Despite a relatively shorter diagnostic delay of TB than in the other regions in China, there was vital social-demographic and spatial heterogeneity in the occurrence of long delays in Shanghai. While the active case finding and rapid molecular diagnosis reduced the delay, novel targeted interventions are still required to address the challenges of TB diagnosis among both migrants and residents in this urban setting.

Sun, Ruoyao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Progress Toward Gamma-Ray Imaging for Automated Holdup Measurement in Gloveboxes

Shielded gloveboxes are currently being constructed to facilitate dilution and disposal of many tons of excess plutonium oxide. Measuring holdup in these gloveboxes is expected to be challenging because of the limited available lines of sight through the glovebox shielding. A system of gamma-ray imagers is being developed to provide localization and quantification for holdup. The system will be mounted above the glovebox, where there is minimal shielding. Multiple imagers with overlapping coded-aperture fields of view are employed to enable three-dimensional reconstruction. Compton reconstruction is also available to localize sources outside the coded-aperture field of view. Improved uncertainties with respect to current techniques are expected by virtue of the fixed installation, spectroscopic performance of the detectors, and iterative image reconstruction techniques. Measurement campaigns have been undertaken at an active glovebox at Savannah River Site to test the gamma-ray imaging system in an operational environment, providing a simple test of a single imager that mimics the geometry of the installation proposed for future shielded gloveboxes. Data taken during quiescent periods in the glovebox were used to measure the buildup of material on an outlet filter and record a trend over time. Calibration data was taken with known sources to simplify analysis and provide a reliable assay of the filter. Resulting images make it possible to isolate the filter from other sources and recognize compromised data. This paper will present details of the measurement and analysis methods.

Schmitt, Kyle↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Dynamics of Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide in Urban and Rural Regions of China: Urbanization and Policy Impacts

High levels of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) due to human activities pose a serious air pollution issue in China, especially in urban agglomerations. However, limited research has investigated the impact of anthropogenic emissions on higher SO 2 concentrations in urban regions compared to rural areas in China. Here, we analyzed the trends in SO 2 concentrations from 1980 to 2021 in China using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) dataset. SO 2 column concentrations from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during the years 2007–2021 were also examined for validation and comparison purposes. Eight representative areas, including four urban regions (Pearl River Delta [PRD], Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei [BTH], Yangtze River Delta [YRD], and Sichuan Basin [SCB]) and four rural regions (Northeast Region [NER], Mongolian Region [MR], West Region [WR], and Tibetan Plateau Region [TR]) were selected for the analysis. Overall, a significant but fluctuating increase in SO 2 concentrations over China was observed during 1980–2021. During 1980–1997 and 2000–2010, there was an increase in SO 2 concentration, while during 1997–2000 and 2010–2021, a decreasing trend was observed. The average increase in SO 2 concentration was approximately 16 times higher in urban regions than in the rural background. We also found that SO 2 dynamics were highly associated with expansion of urban areas, population density, and gross domestic product. Nonetheless, since 2007, SO 2 concentrations have exhibited a downward trend, which is mainly attributed to the air pollution policies implemented by the Chinese government. Our findings highlight the need for further studies on the impact of SO 2 on regional climate change in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transient Pressure Interference During CO2 Injection in Saline Aquifers

Abstract CO2 injection in subsurface geological formations (e.g. deep saline aquifers) causes pressure perturbations over a large area surrounding the injection well. Observation wells are widely considered in geologic CO2 storage (GCS) projects where the pressure perturbation induced by CO2 injection is measured. In this work, we use analytical and numerical modeling tools along with field data to examine the pressure behavior in GCS projects before and after CO2 arrival at an observation well. Prior to CO2 arrival, a baseline pressure trend is established which corresponds to single-phase brine flow across the observation well (approximated by Theis solution). Therefore, analysis of early-time pressure data is straightforward, provides the single-phase flow characteristics (mobility and storativity), and helps establishing a baseline pressure change that can be extended beyond the single-phase flow period at the observation well. Upon CO2 arrival, a departure from this baseline trend is expected. For the pressure to detect the CO2 arrival at an observation well, the departure from baseline pressure behavior must be significant and well above the background noise levels. We use existing analytical models to determine the strength of the expected pressure departure signal from the baseline trend upon CO2 arrival. The strength of the expected pressure departure is found to be directly proportional to the mobility ratio. Accordingly, we establish a criterion to determine whether the pressure at an observation well can detect the CO2 arrival. We present an analysis approach through application to synthetic and field data and show the characteristic pressure behavior before and after CO2 arrival. We show that while generally the pressure can be either above or below the expected baseline pressure trend, it would be likely above the baseline upon CO2 arrival. This is because the mobility ratio becomes less than unity after CO2 arrival. We show that depending on the reservoir characteristics, changes in the pressure trend may or may not be sufficient to detect the CO2 arrival.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of the Structural–Stratigraphic and Reservoir Controls on the Occurrence of Gas Hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend, Alaska North Slope

One of the most studied permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations in Arctic Alaska is the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend. This study provides a detailed re-examination of the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend with a focus on the gas hydrate accumulation in the western part of the Prudhoe Bay Unit. This integrated analysis of downhole well log data and published geophysical data has provided new insight on structural, stratigraphic, and reservoir controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend. This study revealed the relatively complex nature of the gas hydrate occurrences in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend, with gas hydrates present in a series of coarsening upward, laterally pervasive, mostly fine-grained sand beds exhibiting high gas hydrate saturations. Most of the gas hydrate-bearing reservoirs in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend are laterally segmented into distinct northwest- to southeast-trending fault blocks, occur in a combination of structural–stratigraphic traps, and are only partially hydrate filled with distinct down-dip water contacts. These findings suggest that the traditional parts of a petroleum system (i.e., reservoir, gas source, gas migration, and geologic timing of the system formation) also control the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fabrication of porous transport electrodes: Development of quantitative approach for quality control

This work focuses on porous transport electrodes (PTEs), which integrate the anodic catalyst with the adjacent Ti porous transport layer (PTL). Challenges in catalyst deposition on PTLs, particularly at low loadings, motivated this study to evaluate various fabrication methods and characterization approaches. This work investigated Pt-treated PTLs coated with Ir-based catalysts using several common methods, including airbrush coating, rod coating, ultrasonic spray coating, electrodeposition, and sputter deposition, with catalyst loadings ranging from 2.9 to 0.1 mg/cm 2 , providing the opportunity for comparisons across a large set of samples produced by different methods. Two widely accessible characterization techniques: X-ray computed tomography (XCT) and scanning electron microscopy energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) were explored. Initial evaluation of selected samples with XCT provided qualitative insights into catalyst distribution, however comprehensive quantitative analysis was limited. SEM-EDS enabled detailed information on the catalyst distribution both qualitatively and quantitatively using two metrics. Atomic and surface area % ratios of Pt:Ir and Ti:Ir revealed trends in catalyst loading and losses into the PTL pores, as well as evaluating the homogeneity of catalyst coatings. The analysis demonstrated that ultrasonic spray coating, electrodeposition, and sputter coating produced the most homogeneous coatings, with minimal catalyst losses observed for electrodeposition and sputter coating. By adapting common techniques with novel, standardized methodologies, this work establishes a universally applicable framework for cross-study comparison of PTEs. The SEM-EDS approach provides a practical, accessible tool for PTE characterization and contributes a reference dataset supporting both research development and rapid quality control.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Behind the Meter Solar+Storage: Market data and trends [Slides]

As the distributed solar market evolves toward more dynamic forms of deployment, interest in paired solar-plus-storage applications continues to gain steam, but details on the current state of the market are relatively sparse. To fill that void, Berkeley Lab has released an in-depth analysis of this budding market segment. This report draws on the Lab’s Tracking the Sun dataset to characterize trends in deployment, system sizing and equipment selection, installer-market development, and system pricing. The report also provides indicative analyses of the financial and resilience value that host customers in several key markets presently receive by pairing storage with solar.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Mechanism of Increasing Summer Water Vapor Over the Tibetan Plateau

Rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been associated with a wetting trend in atmospheric water vapor content, which is critical for recharging the Asian water tower. However, the mechanism associated with the wetting phenomenon remains unclear. Long-term changes in moisture balance and precipitation recycling processes are investigated using the ERA5 reanalysis from 1979 to 2019. The wetting trend over TP is mainly due to the summer water vapor trend with signi?cantly increases over the western TP. Based on the moisture balance analysis, it is found that precipitation, evaporation, and the convergence of moisture are all increasing over the western TP but decreasing over the eastern TP. Based on the dynamical precipitation recycling model, the results suggest that both internal and external cycles contributes to the wetting over TP, with 63.87% and 36.13% contributions respectively. Further analysis found that the atmospheric heating source is also increasing over the western TP, which could shift the moisture transportation from east to west at the southern boundary of TP. The increasing moisture convergence could enhance precipitation, and the enhanced latent heating in the mid-atmosphere can further induced moisture convergence, which forms a positive feedback. However, an opposite situation occurred over the eastern TP. The internal and external cycle of the recycling process can stimulate (suppress) each other through precipitation over the western (eastern) TP. This mechanism linked the changes in the precipitation recycling and atmospheric circulation, and induced the wetting trend over TP in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesophyll conductance and cell wall composition: insights from a meta‐analysis across species

Mesophyll conductance (g m ) plays a critical role in plant photosynthesis by regulating the diffusion of CO 2 from substomatal cavities to the site of carbon fixation within the chloroplasts. Despite its importance, our understanding of the factors influencing g m , particularly the role of cell wall properties, remains incomplete. In this issue of New Phytologist , Roig-Oliver et al. ( 2025 ; pp. 2384–2391) address this knowledge gap through a comprehensive meta-analysis across multiple species from the major clades of land plants. By analyzing trends in g m and two other key physiological parameters – the ratio of pectin to cellulose and hemicellulose in the cell wall by weight (P/(C + H)), and cell wall thickness (T cw ) – their findings reveal strong correlations of gm with the combination of P/(C + H) and T cw , where g m is directly proportional to P/(C + H) and inversely proportional to T cw . This work not only underscores the influence of cell wall composition on CO 2 diffusion but also provides a valuable framework for further experimental and modeling studies. By shedding light on the dynamic properties of cell walls, shaped by both composition and environmental regulation, this study opens new frontiers for understanding and improving photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Informing nuclear physics via machine learning methods with differential and integral experiments

Information from differential nuclear-physics experiments and theory is often too uncertain to accurately define nuclear-physics observables such as cross sections or energy spectra. Integral experimental data, representing the applications of these observables, are often more precise but depend simultaneously on too many of them to unambiguously identify issues in the observable with human expert analysis alone. Here, we explore how we can leverage physics knowledge gained from differential experimental data, nuclear theory, integral experiments, and neutron-transport calculations to better understand nuclear-physics observables in the context of the application area represented by integral experiments. We support this task with machine-learning methods to discern trends in a large amount of convoluted data. Differential and integral information was used in an analysis augmented by the random forest and the Shapley additive explanations metric. We chose as an application area one that is represented by criticality measurements and pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra. We show one representative example ( 241 Pu fission observables) where the combination of differential and integral information allowed to resolve issues in data representing these observables. As a starting point, the machine learning (ML) algorithms highlighted several observables as leading potentially to bias in simulating integral experiments. Differential information, paired with sensitivity to integral quantities, allowed us then to pinpoint one specific observable ( 241 Pu fission cross section) as the main driver of bias. The comparison to integral experiments, on the other hand, allowed us to indicate a likely reliable experiment among several discrepant ones for this observables. In other cases (e.g., 239 Pu observables), we were not able to resolve the confounding introduced by integral experiments but instead highlighted the need for targeted new experiments and theory developments to better constrain the nuclear-physics space for the application area represented by integral experiments. We were able to combine information from differential experimental data, nuclear-physics theory, integral experiments, and neutron-transport simulations of the latter experiments with the help of the random forest algorithm and expert judgment. This combination of knowledge allows to improve our description of nuclear-physics observables as applied to a particular application area.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Downtime Sources in CEBAF SRF Linac Systems for Improving Its Reliability

In this work, we will present some recent analysis of the reliability statistics of the CEBAF SRF linac systems. Based on the data collected by the existing Down Time Manager (DTM), the year-to-year downtime evolution trend of linac zones over the six-year period from FY18 to FY23 is established. An in-depth downtime analysis at a resolution beyond the linac zone level was carried out by introducing a new system hierarchy, consisting of the SRF linac sub-systems and components. This new paradigm was implemented in a pilot downtime study over the two-month period of CEBAF operation from 9/13/23 to 11/13/23, enabling localization of the responsible sub-systems (SRF, HPRF, LLRF, Beamline vacuum, Cryogenics, etc.) and hardware components (cavity, tuner, RF coupler, etc.) in the CEBAF SRF linac systems. Pinpointing downtime sources over long operation periods at the sub-systems and component levels holds the key to improving the CEBAF SRF systems reliability. It also helps identify areas of SRF technology development needed by future high-power high-reliability CW SRF linacs.

Hryhorenko, Oleksandr↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of autogenous shrinkage-induced microcracks in concrete from 3D images

A new image analysis procedure for quantifying microcracks from three-dimensional (3D) X-ray microCT images of concrete is presented. The method separates microcracks from air voids and aggregates by combining filtering and morphological operations. It was applied to study the effects of supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) and curing age on autogenous shrinkage-induced microcracks in low w/b ratio concretes, and to determine the representative elementary volume (REV) for various properties of microcracks and air voids. Results showed that slag and silica fume significantly increased autogenous shrinkage and related microcracking. These SCMs increased volume fraction, width, length, dendritic density, anisotropy, and connectivity of microcracks, but decreased specific surface and tortuosity. Similar trends were observed with age. Comparison between 3D and 2D measurements was made. REV analysis showed that a sampling volume of ~20 × 20 × 25 mm{sup 3} is sufficient for characterising most parameters of autogenous shrinkage microcracks and air voids in concrete.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation Analysis of Medium-Scale Methanol Pool Fire Simulated in SIERRA/Fuego [Slides]

Analysis of methanol pool fire conducted as part of validation study for SIERRA/Fuego. Results showed trends & errors consistent with related studies. Area validation metric provides way to quantify model form uncertainty. AVM shows that more work could be done to understand how model form uncertainty varies with mesh resolution. There is a possible atypical use of MAVM on time-series data. AVM shows mismatch between predicted flame height and experimental value less sensitive to variations in mixture fraction than temperature. Mismatch about experimental value also more symmetric for mixture fraction. Our analysis showed that mixture fraction is preferable for this application.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗