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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark—A Bayesian Inverse UQ-Based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety has proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ) employing scientific machine learning surrogate models as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of generalized linear least squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. Here, when comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that the GLLS predictions failed to replicate the computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA showed near agreement, and IUQ used the computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

Bayesian calibration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗

DOE OSTI2023

Clustering Acoustic Background Noise in the Stratosphere Using Machine Learning

Infrasound, characterized by low-frequency sound inaudible to humans (<20 Hz), emanates from natural and anthropogenic sources. Its efficacy for monitoring phenomena necessitates robust sensing networks. Traditional ground-based infrasound sensors have limitations due to atmospheric dynamics and noise interference. Balloon-bore sensors have emerged as an alternative, offering reduced noise and improved capabilities. This study bridges clustering algorithms with balloon borne infrasound data, a domain yet to be explored. Employing K-Means, DBSCAN, and GMM algorithms on normalized and reshaped data and only normalized data from a New Zealand-based NASA balloon flight, insights into background noise at stratospheric altitudes were revealed. Despite challenges arising from distinguishing signals amid unique background noise, this research provides vital reference material for noise analysis and calibration. Beyond infrasound event capture, the dataset enriches comprehension of background noise characteristics in the southern hemisphere.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning in Power System Operations: Training Data

Reliability and stability of the electric grid today has depended upon operations of the grid which include the protective relay. Today, the electricity sector faces new challenges with the shift of generation resource characteristics away from the traditional “big iron” generation to inverter-based resources (IBR) which shift the physics and assumption used in grid operation and protection. These changing conditions represent new challenges for protective relays (identification of faults) and increased challenges for protection engineers (correct settings and configuration, reduction of mis-operations), both issues recognized in research and industry. Finding new approaches to reduce mis-operations in relaying and new approaches to fault identification is critical to grid operations. Using today’s modern technology of embedded systems, edge computing, machine learning (ML), and communications we can help address challenges and augment and improve on existing power system operations methodologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

MADE3D: Enabling the next generation of high-torque density wind generators by additive design and 3D printing

Direct-drive wind turbine generators are increasing in popularity, thanks to recent project developments—especially offshore, where reliability and efficiency are major cost drivers. Yet, high capital costs are forcing many original equipment manufacturers to consider lightweight, high-torque density generators for next-generation multi-megawatt turbines that may be difficult to realize by traditional design or manufacturing methods. In this study, we present a new design framework enabled by advanced machine learning and multimaterial additive manufacturing to perform a magnetic topology optimization that maximizes the torque per rotor active mass for a 15-megawatt direct-drive permanent magnet wind generator. A comparison of the proposed approach against conventional topology optimization demonstrated a significant increase in computational efficiency and accuracy in performance predictions. Results using single and multimaterial compositions for rotor core and magnets identify a wider choice of 3D printable designs for a given specification. A hybrid combination of sintered and dysprosium-free polymer-bonded magnets shows good potential for torque performance by saving material costs up to 8.75%. More than 30% improvement in rotor torque densities is identified which can marginally improve the overall generator torque density. With the rapid evolution of multipowder deposition technolgies, this study can greatly inspire a new paradigm for design-driven manufacturing with novel material compositions and lightweight, low-cost, high-strength multimaterial geometries that were previously unexplored for direct-drive generators.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrology in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: From Fragmentation to Coherent Terrestrial Hydrosphere Science

The rapid rise of machine learning (ML) in hydrology has prompted debate about the discipline's scientific relevance. While ML often outperforms traditional models in streamflow prediction, we argue that this reflects a deeper limitation: persistent fragmentation of hydrological science itself. Narrow focus on isolated components has hindered the development of coherent, scale‐relevant understanding of the integrated terrestrial hydrosphere. This is illustrated, for example, by widely divergent estimates of groundwater–streamflow interactions and of water balance‐implied ongoing storage changes. We argue that hydrology's future lies not in choosing between ML and physics, but in integrating data‐driven and process‐based approaches to advance consistent, realistic, and societally relevant understanding of the terrestrial hydrosphere and its multifaceted roles in the Earth System.

Painter, Scott L. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine-learning-guided descriptor selection for predicting corrosion resistance in multi-principal element alloys

More than $270 billion is spent on combatting corrosion annually in the USA alone. As such, we present a machine-learning (ML) approach to down select corrosion-resistant alloys. Our focus is on a non-traditional class of alloys called multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs). Given the vast search space due to the variety of compositions and descriptors to be considered, and based upon existing corrosion data for MPEAs, we demonstrate descriptor optimization to predict corrosion resistance of any given MPEA. Our ML model with descriptor optimization predicts the corrosion resistance of a given MPEA in the presence of an aqueous environment by down selecting two environmental descriptors (pH of the medium and halide concentration), one chemical composition descriptor (atomic % of element with minimum reduction potential), and two atomic descriptors (difference in lattice constant (Δa) and average reduction potential). Our findings show that, while it is possible to down select corrosion-resistant MPEAs by using ML from a large search space, a larger dataset and higher quality data are needed to accurately predict the corrosion rate of MPEAs. This study shows both the promise and the perils of ML when applied to a complex chemical phenomenon like corrosion of alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neuromorphic Graph Algorithms: Extracting Longest Shortest Paths and Minimum Spanning Trees

Neuromorphic computing is poised to become a promising computing paradigm in the post Moore's law era due to its extremely low power usage and inherent parallelism. Traditionally speaking, a majority of the use cases for neuromorphic systems have been in the field of machine learning. In order to expand their usability, it is imperative that neuromorphic systems be used for non-machine learning tasks as well. The structural aspects of neuromorphic systems (i.e., neurons and synapses) are similar to those of graphs (i.e., nodes and edges), However, it is not obvious how graph algorithms would translate to their neuromorphic counterparts. In this work, we propose a preprocessing technique that introduces fractional offsets on the synaptic delays of neuromorphic graphs in order to break ties. This technique, in turn, enables two graph algorithms: longest shortest path extraction and minimum spanning trees.

Kay, Bill↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating HPC, AI, and Workflows for Scientific Data Analysis: Report from Dagstuhl Seminar 23352

The Dagstuhl Seminar 23352, titled “Integrating HPC, AI, and Workflows for Scientific Data Analysis,” held from August 27 to September 1, 2023, was a significant event focusing on the synergy between High-Performance Computing (HPC), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and scientific workflow technologies. The seminar recognized that modern Big Data analysis in science rests on three pillars: workflow technologies for reproducibility and steering, AI and Machine Learning (ML) for versatile analysis, and HPC for handling large data sets. These elements, while crucial, have traditionally been researched separately, leading to gaps in their integration. The seminar aimed to bridge these gaps, acknowledging the challenges and opportunities at the intersection of these technologies. The event highlighted the complex interplay between HPC, workflows, and ML, noting how ML has increasingly been integrated into scientific workflows, thereby enhancing resource demands and bringing new requirements to HPC architectures, like support for GPUs and iterative computations. The seminar also addressed the challenges in adapting HPC for large-scale ML tasks, including in areas like deep learning, and the need for workflow systems to evolve to leverage ML in data analysis fully. Moreover, the seminar explored how ML could optimize scientific workflow systems and HPC operations, such as through improved scheduling and fault tolerance. A key focus was on identifying prestigious use cases of ML in HPC and understanding their unique, unmet requirements. The stochastic nature of ML and its impact on the reproducibility of data analysis on HPC systems was also a topic of discussion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning Based Superconducting Radio-Frequency Cavity Fault Classification at Jefferson Laboratory

This work investigates the efficacy of deep learning (DL) for classifying C100 superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavity faults in the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab. CEBAF is a large, high-power continuous wave recirculating linac that utilizes 418 SRF cavities to accelerate electrons up to 12 GeV. Recent upgrades to CEBAF include installation of 11 new cryomodules (88 cavities) equipped with a low-level RF system that records RF time-series data from each cavity at the onset of an RF failure. Typically, subject matter experts (SME) analyze this data to determine the fault type and identify the cavity of origin. This information is subsequently utilized to identify failure trends and to implement corrective measures on the offending cavity. Manual inspection of large-scale, time-series data, generated by frequent system failures is tedious and time consuming, and thereby motivates the use of machine learning (ML) to automate the task. This study extends work on a previously developed system based on traditional ML methods (Tennant and Carpenter and Powers and Shabalina Solopova and Vidyaratne and Iftekharuddin, Phys. Rev. Accel. Beams, 2020, 23, 114601), and investigates the effectiveness of deep learning approaches. The transition to a DL model is driven by the goal of developing a system with sufficiently fast inference that it could be used to predict a fault event and take actionable information before the onset (on the order of a few hundred milliseconds). Because features are learned, rather than explicitly computed, DL offers a potential advantage over traditional ML. Specifically, two seminal DL architecture types are explored: deep recurrent neural networks (RNN) and deep convolutional neural networks (CNN). We provide a detailed analysis on the performance of individual models using an RF waveform dataset built from past operational runs of CEBAF. In particular, the performance of RNN models incorporating long short-term memory (LSTM) are analyzed along with the CNN performance. Furthermore, comparing these DL models with a state-of-the-art fault ML model shows that DL architectures obtain similar performance for cavity identification, do not perform quite as well for fault classification, but provide an advantage in inference speed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advancing Tassel Detection and Counting: Annotation and Algorithms

Tassel counts provide valuable information related to flowering and yield prediction in maize, but are expensive and time-consuming to acquire via traditional manual approaches. High-resolution RGB imagery acquired by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), coupled with advanced machine learning approaches, including deep learning (DL), provides a new capability for monitoring flowering. In this article, three state-of-the-art DL techniques, CenterNet based on point annotation, task-aware spatial disentanglement (TSD), and detecting objects with recursive feature pyramids and switchable atrous convolution (DetectoRS) based on bounding box annotation, are modified to improve their performance for this application and evaluated for tassel detection relative to Tasselnetv2+. The dataset for the experiments is comprised of RGB images of maize tassels from plant breeding experiments, which vary in size, complexity, and overlap. Results show that the point annotations are more accurate and simpler to acquire than the bounding boxes, and bounding box-based approaches are more sensitive to the size of the bounding boxes and background than point-based approaches. Overall, CenterNet has high accuracy in comparison to the other techniques, but DetectoRS can better detect early-stage tassels. The results for these experiments were more robust than Tasselnetv2+, which is sensitive to the number of tassels in the image.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open Science for Life in Space: Data Sharing and Tools for Knowledge Discovery

The fast-growing array of space biological data, which in the past was simply archived after minimal analysis, holds great potential if it can be reorganized and formatted for Open Science. Organizing the data for such analysis is a challenge because of its diverse nature (molecular, cellular, tissue, whole organism, behavior; tabular, imagery). Open Science is the concept that the more people have access to scientifically curated data, the more knowledge will be gained. This led NASA to start the development of GeneLab in 2015. GeneLab houses spaceflight and space-analog multi-omics datasets from plant, rodent, small animal, and microbial experiments. The success and knowledge gained from GeneLab led to a new alliance of NASA “Open Science Data Repositories” (OSDR), which include the Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA) and the NASA Biological Institutional Scientific Collection (NBISC). Both are adopting the GeneLab data system, so data are more findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). OSDR systems provide users the ability to upload, download, search, share, analyze, and visualize. Open Science also needs strong confidence in the data, which is gained through building science communities. With ~400 current members, GeneLab and ALSDA formed Analysis Working Groups (AWGs) to provide feedback on processing pipelines, metadata curation standards (for ‘omics and phenotypic-physiological-behavioral assays), and to collaborate in effectively reusing data. The AWG also led to the development of the Radiation Biology Ontology (RBO), ensuring radiation metadata are efficiently captured, connected, and interoperable. Feedback from the AWG provided design input toward the new single point-of-entry data submission portal for all investigators to submit, curate, and share their research data. Space biological data is now maximally open access, collected-curated with rich metadata, and formatted for interoperability to enable systems biology, meta-analysis, knowledge graphs, machine learning, modeling, and other reuse approaches. With potential for further federation of OSDR for data mining with traditional biological and medical databases (NIH, NCI, EBI, etc.), a new era for space biology has begun to support the knowledge discovery necessary for Lunar and Martian missions.

Ryan T Scott↗

DOE OSTI2021

MADE3D: Enabling the Next-Generation High-Torque- Density Wind Generators by Additive Design and 3D Printing

Direct-drive wind turbine generators are increasing in popularity, thanks to recent project developments - especially offshore, where reliability and efficiency are major cost drivers. Yet, high capital costs are forcing many original equipment manufacturers to consider lightweight, high-torque density generators for next-generation multi-megawatt turbines that may be difficult to realize by traditional design or manufacturing methods. In this study, we present a new design framework enabled by advanced machine learning and multimaterial additive manufacturing to perform a magnetic topology optimization that maximizes the torque per rotor active mass for a 15-megawatt direct-drive permanent magnet wind generator. A comparison of the proposed approach against conventional topology optimization demonstrated a significant increase in computational efficiency and accuracy in performance predictions. Results using single and multimaterial compositions for rotor core and magnets identify a wider choice of 3D printable designs for a given specification. A hybrid combination of sintered and dysprosium-free polymer-bonded magnets shows good potential for torque performance by saving material costs up to 8.75%. More than 30% improvement in rotor torque densities is identified which can marginally improve the overall generator torque density. With the rapid evolution of multipowder deposition technologies, this study can greatly inspire a new paradigm for design-driven manufacturing with novel material compositions and lightweight, low-cost, high-strength multimaterial geometries that were previously unexplored for direct-drive generators.

3D printing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Graph Convolutional Network-Strengthened Topic Modeling for Scientific Papers

Machine learning has been woven into statistics to modernize topic modeling over textual documents written in natural language, and scientific paper search and recommendation can consequently offer higher accuracy instead of counting on traditional keyword-based search. However, topic distribution of a paper resulted from existing topic modeling techniques only relies on the statistics of words contained in the paper itself. We argue that community users’ views of a paper may also provide insights at the time of recommendation. For example, if a paper on fake image detection has been cited heavily by machine learning papers, such a feature should be absorbed in the embedding of this paper, so that it can be recommended for future query on machine learning. In this paper, we present a Graph Convolutional Network-strengthened Topic Modeling (GCN-TM) method, which employs GCN technique to refine topic modeling of scientific papers. A citation-oriented knowledge graph is constructed, and topic modeling is mapped to feature embedding of the comprising papers. On top of its own topics carried in its content, each paper learns topics from its neighbors and revise its embedding accordingly. Our empirical studies over real-life scientific literature has proved the necessity and effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Jia Zhang↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ising-Traffic: Using Ising Machine Learning to Predict Traffic Congestion under Uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges in accurate and realtime traffic congestion prediction with uncertainty by proposing Ising-Traffic, a novel quantum-inspired dual-model Ising based traffic prediction framework which delivers higher accuracy and lower latency than SOTA solutions. While traditional and deep learning methods face the trade-off between algorithm complexity and computational efficiency, our Ising-based method leverages Ising’s inherent and unique capability of finding the state of a system with the lowest energy and applying it to traffic prediction. In this work, traffic prediction under uncertainty is formulated into two separate Ising models: Reconstruct-Ising and Predict-Ising. Reconstruct-Ising is mapped onto modern Ising machine and handles uncertainty in traffic accurately with negligible latency and energy consumption, while Predict-Ising is mapped onto traditional processors and predicts future congestion precisely with only at most 1.8% computational demands of existing solutions. Our evaluation shows Ising-Traffic delivers on average 98× speedups and 5% accuracy improvement over SOTA.

traffic flow control, Ising↗

DOE OSTI2022

Elucidating proximity magnetism through polarized neutron reflectometry and machine learning

Polarized neutron reflectometry is a powerful technique to interrogate the structures of multilayered magnetic materials with depth sensitivity and nanometer resolution. However, reflectometry profiles often inhabit a complicated objective function landscape using traditional fitting methods, posing a significant challenge for parameter retrieval. In this work, we develop a data-driven framework to recover the sample parameters from polarized neutron reflectometry data with minimal user intervention. We train a variational autoencoder to map reflectometry profiles with moderate experimental noise to an interpretable, low-dimensional space from which sample parameters can be extracted with high resolution. We apply our method to recover the scattering length density profiles of the topological insulator–ferromagnetic insulator heterostructure Bi2Se3/EuS exhibiting proximity magnetism in good agreement with the results of conventional fitting. We further analyze a more challenging reflectometry profile of the topological insulator–antiferromagnet heterostructure (Bi,Sb)2Te3/Cr2O3 and identify possible interfacial proximity magnetism in this material. We anticipate that the framework developed here can be applied to resolve hidden interfacial phenomena in a broad range of layered systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed machine learning for building performance simulation-A review of a nascent field

Building performance simulation (BPS) is critical for understanding building dynamics and behavior, analyzing the performance of the built environment, optimizing energy efficiency, improving demand flexibility, and enhancing building resilience. However, conducting BPS is not trivial. Traditional BPS relies on accurate building energy models, which are primarily physics-based and heavily dependent on detailed building information, expert knowledge, and case-by-case model calibrations, significantly limiting their scalability. With the development of sensing technology and the increased availability of data, there is growing attention and interest in data-driven BPS. However, purely data-driven models often suffer from limited generalization ability and a lack of physical consistency, resulting in poor performance in real-world applications. To address these limitations, recent studies have begun integrating physics priors into data-driven models, a methodology known as physics-informed machine learning (PIML). PIML is an emerging field where its definitions, methodologies, evaluation criteria, application scenarios, and future directions remain open. To bridge those gaps, this study systematically reviews the state-of-the-art PIML for BPS, offering a comprehensive definition of PIML and comparing it to traditional BPS approaches regarding data requirements, modeling effort, performance, and computational cost. We also summarize the commonly used methodologies, validation approaches, application domains, available data sources, open-source packages, and testbeds. In addition, this study provides a general guideline for selecting appropriate PIML models based on BPS applications. Finally, this study identifies key challenges and outlines future research directions, providing a solid foundation and valuable insights to advance R&D of PIML in BPS.

Jiang, Zixin↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗