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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The Relationship Between African Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones in Historical and Future Climates in the HighResMIP‐PRIMAVERA Simulations

Abstract The deadly and destructive nature of tropical cyclones (TCs) makes understanding their response to future climate change of the utmost importance. TC genesis hinges on multiple factors, including an initial disturbance. African easterly waves (AEWs) have been shown to serve as such disturbances for TCs developing in the North Atlantic. It is therefore crucial to understand the relationship between AEWs and TCs and how this relationship may be affected by climate change. In this study, we examine the AEW‐TC relationship in historical and future climates using three models from the HighResMIP PRIMAVERA simulations. The AEWs and TCs were tracked in the model data using objective tracking algorithms, and AEW and TC tracks were then matched together if they were close to each other in space and time. The strength of the AEWs was measured using the eddy kinetic energy and the curvature vorticity of the waves. TC strength and intensity were measured using potential intensity and lifetime maximum 10 m windspeed. We found that future changes in the frequency of AEWs are not a good indicator of future TC activity. However, AEW strength, as well as environmental conditions conducive to strong TCs, are good indicators of AEWs that develop into TCs in both historical and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Energetic Diagnostic of Tropical Cyclone Size in f –Plane Simulations

As a major feature of tropical cyclones (TCs), controlling factors of TC outer size or size scaling remains a fundamental scientific question. The Rossby deformation radius and a natural extent associated with potential intensity have been proposed as two scalings of TC size. But neither of them satisfactorily captures the sensitivity of TC size to sea surface temperature (SST) in idealized f-plane simulations. Inspired by the studies of the Hadley circulation, here we proposed a new TC scaling based on an energetic diagnostic scaling. TC size is primarily a ratio of the secondary circulation strength to subsidence velocity, further determined by the total atmospheric heating in the ascending area, the gross moist stability, the diabatic cooling, and the dry static stability. The former two is based on the moist energetic budget applied to the whole storm structure, while the latter two is based on the dry thermodynamic budget applied to the subsidence areas. The new scaling well captured the sensitivity of TC size to SST in idealized f-plane simulations, partly resulted from expanded ascending area, increased surface moisture deficit, and weakened subsidence with increased SST.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrodynamic Modeling of Stratification and Mixing in a Shallow, Tropical Floodplain Lake

Abstract Floodplain lakes are widespread and ecologically important throughout tropical river systems, however data are rare that describe how temporal variations in hydrological, meteorological and optical conditions moderate stratification and mixing in these shallow lakes. Using time series measurements of meteorology and water‐column temperatures from 17 several day campaigns spanning two hydrological years in a representative Amazon floodplain lake, we calculated surface energy fluxes and thermal stratification, and applied and evaluated a 3‐dimensional hydrodynamic model. The model successfully simulated diel cycles in thermal structure characterized by buoyancy frequency, depth of the actively mixing layer, and other terms associated with the surface energy budget. Diurnal heating with strong stratification and nocturnal mixing were common; despite considerable heat loss at night, the strong stratification during the day meant that mixing only infrequently extended to the bottom at night. Simulations indicated that the diurnal thermocline up and downwelled creating lake‐wide differences in near‐surface temperatures and mixing depths. Infrequent full mixing creates conditions conducive to anoxia in these shallow lakes given their warm temperatures.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Signal in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Today and Near Future

This manuscript discusses the challenges in detecting and attributing recently observed trends in the Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and the epistemic uncertainty we face in assessing future risk. We use synthetic storms downscaled from five CMIP5 models by the Columbia HAZard model (CHAZ), and directly simulated storms from high-resolution climate models. We examine three aspects of recent TC activity: the upward trend and multi-decadal oscillation of the annual frequency, the increase in storm wind intensity, and the decrease in forward speed. Some data sets suggest that these trends and oscillation are forced while others suggest that they can be explained by natural variability. Projections under warming climate scenarios also show a wide range of possibilities, especially for the annual frequencies, which increase or decrease depending on the choice of moisture variable used in the CHAZ model and on the choice of climate model. The uncertainties in the annual frequency lead to epistemic uncertainties in TC risk assessment. Here, we investigate the potential for reduction of these epistemic uncertainties through a statistical practice, namely likelihood analysis. We find that historical observations are more consistent with the simulations with increasing frequency than those with decreasing frequency, but we are not able to rule out the latter. We argue that the most rational way to treat epistemic uncertainty is to consider all outcomes contained in the results. In the context of risk assessment, since the results contain possible outcomes in which TC risk is increasing, this view implies that the risk is increasing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Effects of African Easterly Wave Suppression by Wave Track on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Abstract It is well established that African easterly waves (AEWs) can serve as seedling disturbances for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). However, research has shown that AEWs are not necessary to maintain specifically basin‐wide TC frequency. Here, we for the first time investigate the effects of AEW suppression by wave track on Atlantic TC activity. Regional model simulations were performed, where AEWs were either prescribed or suppressed from the eastern lateral boundary condition. We found that without AEWs, there was an increase in TC frequency and strength, with the most pronounced increases occurring when the waves were suppressed in the south track. These changes coincided with more favorable environmental conditions and disturbances associated with increased convective activity over the Atlantic. Our results indicate that AEWs are not a limiting factor for TCs, and that AEW suppression, specifically in the south track, can affect the large‐scale environment to enhance favorability for TC genesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aerosol‐Correlated Cloud Activation for Clean Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic Boundary Layer During LASIC

Abstract Aerosol measurements during the DOE ARM Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign were used to quantify the differences between clean and smoky cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) budgets. Accumulation‐mode particles accounted for ∼70% of CCN at supersaturations <0.3% in clean and smoky conditions. Aitken‐mode particles contributed <20% and sea‐spray‐mode particles <10% at supersaturations <0.3%, but at supersaturations >0.3% Aitken particles contributions increased to 30%–40% of clean CCN. For clean conditions, the Hoppel minimum diameter was correlated to the accumulation‐mode number concentration, indicating aerosol‐correlated cloud activation was controlling the lower diameter cutoff for which particles serve as CCN. For smoky conditions, the contributions of Aitken particles increase and the correlation of cloud activation to accumulation‐mode particles is masked by the lower‐hygroscopicity smoke. These results provide the first multi‐month in situ quantitative constraints on the role of aerosol number size distributions in controlling cloud activation in the tropical Atlantic boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional variability in the environmental controls of precipitation regimes in the tropics

The environmental factors that control precipitation regimes in Boreal winter rainfall in the tropics and their regional variabilities are examined using a simple statistical analysis and a machine learning model. Radar-derived precipitation from field campaigns at Darwin Australia, Manaus Brazil, and the Equatorial Indian Ocean, along with the corresponding large-scale environmental variables from ERA5 reanalysis, are used. The dependence of marginal distributions of frequencies of these regimes on five environmental variables are calculated. The variables are hourly column integrated precipitable water (PW), convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and lower and upper tropospheric wind shear. The simple machine learning model that predicts the probability of transition from suppressed to an active regime as a function of the environmental variables is designed and optimized for a potential application as a trigger function for convection parameterizations. To the first order the analysis shows an abrupt increase in the probability of an active regime near PW > 60 mm and CIN of <100 J kg -1 . The key differences in the frequencies of active regimes among the regions are found to be related to the fact that over Darwin there is strong variability in PW while CIN is generally low. Over Amazon, on the other hand, both PW and CIN are quite variable. Over the DYNAMO domain the comparatively frequent low PW is compensated for by consistently low CIN resulting in a moderate frequency of an active regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering

Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of a Stochastic Mixing Scheme in the Deep Convective Gray Zone Using a Tropical Oceanic Deep Convection Case Study

Abstract A stochastic horizontal subgrid‐scale mixing scheme is evaluated in ensemble simulations of a tropical oceanic deep convection case using a horizontal grid spacing (Δ h ) of 3 km. The stochastic scheme, which perturbs the horizontal mixing coefficient according to a prescribed spatiotemporal autocorrelation scale, is found to generally increase mesoscale organization and convective intensity relative to a non‐stochastic control simulation. Perturbations applied at relatively short autocorrelation scales induce differences relative to the control that are more systematic than those from perturbations applied at relatively long scales that yield more variable outcomes. A simulation with mixing enhanced by a constant factor of 4 significantly increases mesoscale organization and convective intensity, while turning off horizontal subgrid‐scale mixing decreases both. Total rainfall is modulated by a combination of mesoscale organization, areal coverage of convection, and convective intensity. The stochastic simulations tend to behave more similarly to the constant enhanced mixing simulation owing to greater impacts from enhanced mixing as compared to reduced mixing. The impacts of stochastic mixing are robust, ascertained by comparing the stochastic mixing ensembles with a non‐stochastic mixing ensemble that has grid‐scale noise added to the initial thermodynamic field. Compared to radar observations and a higher resolution Δ h = 1 km simulation, stochastic mixing seemingly degrades the simulation performance. These results imply that stochastic mixing produces non‐negligible impacts on convective system properties and evolution but does not lead to an improved representation of convective cloud characteristics in the case studied here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in Four Decades of Near‐CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations

We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40‐year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6‐hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture‐related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short‐term intensity variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relationship Between Tropical Cloud Feedback and Climatological Bias in Clouds

Abstract Global climate model (GCM) projections of future climate are uncertain largely due to a persistent spread in cloud feedback. This is despite efforts to reduce this model uncertainty through a variety of emergent constraints (ECs); with several studies suggesting an important role for present‐day biases in clouds. Here, we use three generations of GCMs to assess the value of climatological cloud metrics for constraining uncertainty in cloud feedback. We find that shortwave cloud radiative properties across the Southern Hemisphere extratropics are most robustly correlated with tropical cloud feedback (TCF). Using this relationship in conjunction with observations, we produce an EC that yields a TCF value of 0.52 ± 0.34 W/m 2 /K, which equates to a 34% reduction in uncertainty. Thus, we show that climatological cloud properties can be used to reduce uncertainty in how clouds will respond to future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Drivers of Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis: African Easterly Waves and the Environment

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable environmental conditions and an initial disturbance, which, in the North Atlantic, is often an African easterly wave (AEW). Although studies have examined how AEWs and the environment affect TC genesis, their relative importance is less understood. Here, we examine whether AEW strength or sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are the primary drivers of TC genesis. Regional model simulations were performed to address how increased AEW strength and SSTs affect the frequency of AEWs that develop into TCs in a year with below‐average TCs with AEW origins and SSTs. We found that environmental favorability plays a larger role than AEW strength in driving the frequency of TCs with AEW origins. Strengthening the AEWs did not affect the frequency of AEWs that develop into TCs due to low environmental favorability. Warmer SSTs led to increased environmental favorability and a statistically significant increase in TCs with AEW origins.

Bercos‐Hickey, Emily [Climate and Ecosystem Scienc↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Increases in the Western North Atlantic

The outer size of a tropical cyclone (TC) plays a pivotal role in its impact through a modulation of wind duration, rainfall extent and storm surge. While global and basin scale trends in TC size have been examined previously, whether there have been regional changes over time remains unclear. Here, using a suite of observations and reanalyses, we detect an increasing TC outer size over the western North Atlantic during 1979–2022. Over the western subtropical North Atlantic where the largest changes are found, the area-averaged increase in the radius of 17 ms -1 winds is about 7.5% over this period. Analysis of the large-scale environment reveals that the air-sea thermodynamic state has become more favorable for storm intensification, and thereby expansion, over that region. Further, numerical model simulations link changes in the environment with those in storm size, and suggest a combination of natural variability and external forcing in driving them.

Balaguru, Karthik [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Thermodynamical Predictor of Tropical High‐Cloud Area Coverage: Estimated Anvil‐Outflow Stability

The stability at the lapse-rate tropopause (LRT) was previously defined as the upper-tropospheric stability (UTS and SUT) but might underestimate the stability control on high-level clouds, since there is little direct connection between convective processes and the thermal stratification at the LRT. Here, a novel estimated anvil-outflow stability (EAS) based on the minimum stability in the upper troposphere is proposed. At the Manus site, the results show that small and large values of the LRT-based UTS and SUT both correspond to strong divergence and frequent occurrence of high-level ice clouds. In contrast, smaller EAS corresponds to stronger convective outflows to produce likely more high-level ice clouds, with a strong negative correlation. In tropics, EAS better explains the geographic distribution of high-level cloud coverage (HCC) and its temporal variations than UTS and SUT. With a strong linear correlation, EAS is likely a simple useful predictor of HCC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Increasing Trend in October–November Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity

October–November Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity has significant impacts for both the Caribbean islands and Central America (e.g., Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020). October–November Caribbean TCs can also track northward and make continental United States landfall, resulting in substantial damage and fatalities (e.g., Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Delta and Zeta in 2020). We find significant increasing trends in October–November Caribbean hurricanes, rapidly intensifying hurricanes (winds increasing by ≥15 m s −1 within 24 hr), and landfalling hurricanes during the global satellite era (1979–present). Since 1979, we also observe significant warming trends in the western Atlantic Warm Pool and anomalous relative cooling in the eastern Pacific during October–November. These trends yield a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for Caribbean TCs, including reductions in Caribbean vertical wind shear, increases in Caribbean potential intensity, and a more TC-conducive African easterly jet.

Klotzbach, P. J. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Colli↗
DOE OSTI2026

Precipitation‐Buoyancy Relationships in the Life Cycle of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

This study aims to establish process-level benchmarks linking Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) at various stages of their life cycle to their thermodynamic environment. The relationship between MCS precipitation and an empirical buoyancy measure (B 𝐿 ) is examined using collocated satellite-observed MCS tracks and reanalysis data. A positive relationship is identified between the frequency of tropical MCSs and that of high B 𝐿 conditions. The buoyancy measure, integrating instability and entrainment, helps elucidate thermodynamic characteristics throughout the MCS life cycle. Environments with high instability and moderate subsaturation are frequently linked to the initial stage, while environments with low instability and near saturation are frequently linked to the mature stage. Stable and highly subsaturated environments are more likely associated with the termination of the life cycle. These associations are qualitatively similar for oceanic and land MCSs. Overall, the MCS-environment relationships can serve as observational benchmarks with which to diagnose MCS-resolving models.

Tsai, Wei‐Ming [University of California, Los Ange↗