Results for “TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT” — Page 19

DOE OSTI2010

A toolkit for detecting technical surprise.

The detection of a scientific or technological surprise within a secretive country or institute is very difficult. The ability to detect such surprises would allow analysts to identify the capabilities that could be a military or economic threat to national security. Sandia's current approach utilizing ThreatView has been successful in revealing potential technological surprises. However, as data sets become larger, it becomes critical to use algorithms as filters along with the visualization environments. Our two-year LDRD had two primary goals. First, we developed a tool, a Self-Organizing Map (SOM), to extend ThreatView and improve our understanding of the issues involved in working with textual data sets. Second, we developed a toolkit for detecting indicators of technical surprise in textual data sets. Our toolkit has been successfully used to perform technology assessments for the Science & Technology Intelligence (S&TI) program.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2010

Developing Information on Energy Savings and Associated Costs and Benefits of Energy Efficient Emerging Technologies Applicable in California

Implementation and adoption of efficient end-use technologies have proven to be one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout the industries. In many cases, implementing energy efficiency measures is among one of the most cost effective investments that the industry could make in improving efficiency and productivity while reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Over the years, there have been incentives to use resources and energy in a cleaner and more efficient way to create industries that are sustainable and more productive. With the working of energy programs and policies on GHG inventory and regulation, understanding and managing the costs associated with mitigation measures for GHG reductions is very important for the industry and policy makers around the world and in California. Successful implementation of applicable emerging technologies not only may help advance productivities, improve environmental impacts, or enhance industrial competitiveness, but also can play a significant role in climate-mitigation efforts by saving energy and reducing the associated GHG emissions. Developing new information on costs and savings benefits of energy efficient emerging technologies applicable in California market is important for policy makers as well as the industries. Therefore, provision of timely evaluation and estimation of the costs and energy savings potential of emerging technologies applicable to California is the focus of this report. The overall goal of the project is to identify and select a set of emerging and under-utilized energy-efficient technologies and practices as they are important to reduce energy consumption in industry while maintaining economic growth. Specifically, this report contains the results from performing Task 3 Technology Characterization for California Industries for the project titled Research Opportunities in Emerging and Under-Utilized Energy-Efficient Industrial Technologies, sponsored by California Energy Commission (CEC) and managed by California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE). The project purpose is to characterize energy savings, technology costs, market potential, and economic viability of newly selected technologies applicable to California. In this report, LBNL first performed technology reviews to identify new or under-utilized technologies that could offer potential in improving energy efficiency and additional benefits to California industries as well as in the U.S. industries, followed by detailed technology assessment on each targeted technology, with a focus on California applications. A total of eleven emerging or underutilized technologies applicable to California were selected and characterized with detailed information in this report. The outcomes essentially include a multi-page summary profile for each of the 11 emerging or underutilized technologies applicable to California industries, based on the formats used in the technology characterization reports (Xu et al. 2010; Martin et al. 2000).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies: Preprint

The advantage of using Technology Performance Level (TPL) in conjunction with Technology Readiness Level (TRL) assessments in guiding technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk has been well articulated in the literature. In partnership with industry and international collaborators, a TPL assessment methodology for grid-connected applications has been developed through the application of the systems engineering approach. Metrics under seven different categories have been developed, weighted based on their relative relevance, and combined to yield a composite score. The methodology has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool plus a web application specifically aimed at assessing early stage (TRL 1-3) concepts. The target use cases are (a) technology developers improving their design, to find fatal flaws early, to get feedback on current design, to identify areas of improvement that will yield the highest return on investment, (b) reviewers assessing technologies in competitions or for making funding decisions, (c) investor or project developer doing due diligence, (d) policy makers landscaping the technology domain for formulating R&D strategy. The methodology and the tools are undergoing continuous improvement based on the experience and lessons learnt from applying it to internal and external marine energy technology development projects. The methodology is also being adapted for assessing WECs servicing markets outside the continental grid - broadly categorized as Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) applications. Such applications have vastly different functional requirements entailing a modification of the methodology to account for their higher risk tolerance, reduced price sensitivities, lower power needs, different permitting protocols, etc. This paper presents the latest status of the TPL assessment methodology and tools, describes its adaptation to select PBE markets, and explores its extension to other domains where it could provide a comprehensive and holistic measure of a nascent or disruptive technology's technoeconomic performance potential.

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DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies

The advantage of using Technology Performance Level (TPL) in conjunction with Technology Readiness Level (TRL) assessments in guiding technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk has been well articulated in the literature. In partnership with industry and international collaborators, a TPL assessment methodology for grid-connected applications has been developed through the application of the systems engineering approach. Metrics under seven different categories have been developed, weighted based on their relative relevance, and combined to yield a composite score. The methodology has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool plus a web application specifically aimed at assessing early stage (TRL 1-3) concepts. The target use cases are (a) technology developers improving their design, to find fatal flaws early, to get feedback on current design, to identify areas of improvement that will yield the highest return on investment, (b) reviewers assessing technologies in competitions or for making funding decisions, (c) investor or project developer doing due diligence, (d) policy makers landscaping the technology domain for formulating R&D strategy. The methodology and the tools are undergoing continuous improvement based on the experience and lessons learnt from applying it to internal and external marine energy technology development projects. The methodology is also being adapted for assessing WECs servicing markets outside the continental grid - broadly categorized as Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) applications. Such applications have vastly different functional requirements entailing a modification of the methodology to account for their higher risk tolerance, reduced price sensitivities, lower power needs, different permitting protocols, etc. This paper presents the latest status of the TPL assessment methodology and tools, describes its adaptation to select PBE markets, and explores its extension to other domains where it could provide a comprehensive and holistic measure of a nascent or disruptive technology's technoeconomic performance potential.

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DOE OSTI2024

Benefits and Challenges of California Offshore Wind Electricity: An Updated Assessment

Offshore wind (OSW) technology has recently been included in California’s plans to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045. As an emerging technology, many features of OSW are changing more rapidly than established renewable options and are shaped by local circumstances in unique ways that limit transferrable experiences globally. This paper fills a gap in the literature by providing an updated technological assessment of OSW in California to determine its viability and competitiveness in the state’s electricity generation mix to achieve its near-term energy and environmental goals. Through a critical synthesis and extrapolation of technical, social, and economic analyses, we identify several major improvements in its potential. First, we note that while estimates of OSW’s costs per MWh of installed capacity have generally documented and projected a long-term decline, recent technical, microeconomic, and macroeconomic factors have caused significant backsliding of this momentum. Second, we project that the potential dollar value benefits of OSW’s greenhouse gas reduction capabilities have increased by one to two orders of magnitude, primarily due to major upward revisions of the social cost of carbon. Several co-benefits, including enhanced reliability, economic growth, and environmental justice, look to be increasingly promising due to a combination of technological advances and policy initiatives. Despite these advancements, OSW continues to face several engineering and broader challenges. We assess the current status of these challenges, as well as current and future strategies to address them. We conclude that OSW is now overall an even more attractive electricity-generating option than at the beginning of this decade.

Rose, Adam (ORCID:0000000333477684)↗

DOE OSTI2018

Safeguards Challenges and Safeguards Technology Needs Assessment for Leading Thorium Fuel Cycles

Several thorium fuel cycle variants are currently being actively pursued by the global nuclear energy community. These variants have short-, medium-, and long-term deployment pathways in a variety of reactor types, including thorium-fueled molten salt reactors. Those pathways in turn give rise to a variety of fuel designs, fuel cycle facilities, and nuclear material processing requirements. These emerging fuel cycles will impact the technical implementation of safeguards, and they already raise questions about the applicability of current verification technologies. To address this issue, research is being performed to produce a detailed safeguards technology road map. It will include a needs assessment of the detection research and development (R&D;) necessary to transition the current safeguards technology toolkit to meet the verification needs of thorium fuel cycles, and to formulate the scientific basis for building new instrumentation to fill any potential capability gaps. The purpose of this technology road map is to define and inform on the safeguards technology needs for thorium fuel cycles, reflecting only the leading candidate thorium fuel cycles prioritized based on implementation timescales and the current direction of international programs. This work provides a guide to the priorities for future directed R&D; needed to bring the technology readiness levels (TRLs) of safeguards detection solutions in line with the higher TRLs of the most promising thorium fuel cycles. Herein, a summary is presented of thorium fuel cycle options and activities currently under way worldwide, which provides the technical basis for the needs evaluation. The key synergies and differences between these fuel cycles and current conventional uranium- and plutonium-based fuel cycles will be discussed from a nuclear material accountancy and detection standpoint. Reactor inventory calculations, fuel cycle simulations, and conclusions from the safeguards technology needs assessment will be presented, together with plans for experimental validation.

Worrall, Louise G.↗

DOE OSTI2011

Material Control and Accounting Design Considerations for High-Temperature Gas Reactors

The subject of this report is domestic safeguards and security by design (2SBD) for high-temperature gas reactors, focusing on material control and accountability (MC&A). The motivation for the report is to provide 2SBD support to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project, which was launched by Congress in 2005. This introductory section will provide some background on the NGNP project and an overview of the 2SBD concept. The remaining chapters focus specifically on design aspects of the candidate high-temperature gas reactors (HTGRs) relevant to MC&A, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requirements, and proposed MC&A approaches for the two major HTGR reactor types: pebble bed and prismatic. Of the prismatic type, two candidates are under consideration: (1) GA's GT-MHR (Gas Turbine-Modular Helium Reactor), and (2) the Modular High-Temperature Reactor (M-HTR), a derivative of Areva's Antares reactor. The future of the pebble-bed modular reactor (PBMR) for NGNP is uncertain, as the PBMR consortium partners (Westinghouse, PBMR [Pty] and The Shaw Group) were unable to agree on the path forward for NGNP during 2010. However, during the technology assessment of the conceptual design phase (Phase 1) of the NGNP project, AREVA provided design information and technology assessment of their pebble bed fueled plant design called the HTR-Module concept. AREVA does not intend to pursue this design for NGNP, preferring instead a modular reactor based on the prismatic Antares concept. Since MC&A relevant design information is available for both pebble concepts, the pebble-bed HTGRs considered in this report are: (1) Westinghouse PBMR; and (2) AREVA HTR-Module. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) sponsors the Fuel Cycle Research and Development program (FCR&D), which contains an element specifically focused on the domestic (or state) aspects of SBD. This Material Protection, Control and Accountancy Technology (MPACT) program supports the present work summarized in this report, namely the development of guidance to support the consideration of MC&A in the design of both pebble-bed and prismatic-fueled HTGRs. The objective is to identify and incorporate design features into the facility design that will cost effectively aid in making MC&A more effective and efficient, with minimum impact on operations. The theft of nuclear material is addressed through both MC&A and physical protection, while the threat of sabotage is addressed principally through physical protection.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Technology needs assessment of an atmospheric observation system for tropospheric research missions, part 1

The technology advancements needed to implement the atmospheric observation satellite systems for air quality research were identified. Tropospheric measurements are considered. The measurements and sensors are based on a model of knowledge objectives in atmospheric science. A set of potential missions and attendant spacecraft and sensors is postulated. The results show that the predominant technology needs will be in passive and active sensors for accurate and frequent global measurements of trace gas concentration profiles.

Alvarado, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

International Space Exploration Coordination Group Assessment of Technology Gaps for Dust Mitigation for the Global Exploration Roadmap

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) formed two Gap Assessment teams to evaluate topic discipline areas that had not been worked at an international level to date. Accordingly, the ISECG Technology Working Group (TWG) recommended two discipline areas based on Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) Critical Technology Needs reflected within the GER Technology Development Map (GTDM): Dust Mitigation and LOX/Methane Propulsion, with this paper addressing the former. The ISECG approved the recommended Gap Assessment teams, and tasked the TWG to formulate the new teams with subject matter experts (SMEs) from the participating agencies. The participating agencies for the Dust Mitigation Gap Assessment Team were ASI, CSA, ESA, JAXA, and NASA. The team was asked to identify and make a presentation on technology gaps related to the GER2 mission scenario (including cislunar and lunar mission themes and long-lead items for human exploration of Mars) at the international level. In addition the team was tasked to produce a gap assessment in the form of a summary report and presentation identifying those GER Critical Technology Needs, including opportunities for international coordination and cooperation in closing the identified gaps. Dust is still a principal limiting factor in returning to the lunar surface for missions of any extended duration. However, viable technology solutions have been identified, but need maturation to be available to support both lunar and Mars missions.

dust↗

NASA NTRS2016

International Space Exploration Coordination Group Assessment of Technology Gaps for Dust Mitigation for the Global Exploration Roadmap

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) formed two Gap Assessment teams to evaluate topic discipline areas that had not been worked at an international level to date. Accordingly, the ISECG Technology Working Group (TWG) recommended two discipline areas based on Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) Critical Technology Needs reflected within the GER Technology Development Map (GTDM): Dust Mitigation and LOX/Methane Propulsion, with this paper addressing the former. The ISECG approved the recommended Gap Assessment teams, and tasked the TWG to formulate the new teams with subject matter experts (SMEs) from the participating agencies. The participating agencies for the Dust Mitigation Gap Assessment Team were ASI, CSA, ESA, JAXA, and NASA. The team was asked to identify and make a presentation on technology gaps related to the GER2 mission scenario (including cislunar and lunar mission themes and long-lead items for human exploration of Mars) at the international level. In addition the team was tasked to produce a gap assessment in the form of a summary report and presentation identifying those GER Critical Technology Needs, including opportunities for international coordination and cooperation in closing the identified gaps. Dust is still a principal limiting factor in returning to the lunar surface for missions of any extended duration. However, viable technology solutions have been identified, but need maturation to be available to support both lunar and Mars missions.

dust↗

NASA NTRS1995

Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar: Current status and future directions. A report to the Committee on Earth Sciences, Space Studies Board, National Research Council

This report provides a context in which questions put forth by NASA's Office of Mission to Planet Earth (OMPTE) regarding the next steps in spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) science and technology can be addressed. It summarizes the state-of-the-art in theory, experimental design, technology, data analysis, and utilization of SAR data for studies of the Earth, and describes potential new applications. The report is divided into five science chapters and a technology assessment. The chapters summarize the value of existing SAR data and currently planned SAR systems, and identify gaps in observational capabilities needing to be filled to address the scientific questions. Cases where SAR provides complementary data to other (non-SAR) measurement techniques are also described. The chapter on technology assessment outlines SAR technology development which is critical not only to NASA's providing societally relevant geophysical parameters but to maintaining competitiveness in SAR technology, and promoting economic development.

Evans, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Demonstration of Micro-Combined Heat and Power for Light Commercial Applications (Final Report)

In 2014 the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office (BTO) funded a technology assessment of micro Combined Heat and Power (µCHP) systems for light commercial applications. The technology assessment was part of the BTO High Impact Technology (HIT) Catalyst program. The HIT Catalyst program supports research and development into technologies that will yield cost-effective, efficient buildings. It is estimated µCHP in US has the potential to save 10.5 GW of primary energy in the commercial building sector.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2010

HTGR Technology Family Assessment for a Range of Fuel Cycle Missions

This report examines how the HTGR technology family can provide options for the once through, modified open cycle (MOC), or full recycle fuel cycle strategies. The HTGR can serve all the fuel cycle missions that an LWR can; both are thermal reactors. Additional analyses are warranted to determine if HTGR “full recycle” service could provide improved consumption of transuranic (TRU) material than LWRs (as expected), to analyze the unique proliferation resistance issues associated with the “pebble bed” approach, and to further test and analyze methods to separate TRISO-coated fuel particles from graphite and/or to separate used HTGR fuel meat from its TRISO coating. The feasibility of these two separation issues is not in doubt, but further R&D could clarify and reduce the cost and enable options not adequately explored at present. The analyses here and the now-demonstrated higher fuel burnup tests (after the illustrative designs studied here) should enable future MOC and full recycle HTGR concepts to more rapidly consume TRU, thereby offering waste management advantages. Interest in “limited separation” or “minimum fuel treatment” separation approaches motivates study of impurity-tolerant fuel fabrication. Several issues are outside the scope of this report, including the following: thorium fuel cycles, gas-cooled fast reactors, the reliability of TRISO-coated particles (billions in a reactor), and how soon any new reactor or fuel type could be licensed and then deployed and therefore impact fuel cycle performance measures.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Technology Needs Assessment of an Atmospheric Observation System for Multidisciplinary Air Quality/Meteorology Missions, Part 2

The technology advancements that will be necessary to implement the atmospheric observation systems are considered. Upper and lower atmospheric air quality and meteorological parameters necessary to support the air quality investigations were included. The technology needs were found predominantly in areas related to sensors and measurements of air quality and meteorological measurements.

Alvarado, U. R.↗

DOE OSTI2010

HTGR Technology Family Assessment for a Range of Fuel Cycle Missions

This report examines how the HTGR technology family can provide options for the once through, modified open cycle (MOC), or full recycle fuel cycle strategies. The HTGR can serve all the fuel cycle missions that an LWR can; both are thermal reactors. Additional analyses are warranted to determine if HTGR “full recycle” service could provide improved consumption of transuranic (TRU) material than LWRs (as expected), to analyze the unique proliferation resistance issues associated with the “pebble bed” approach, and to further test and analyze methods to separate TRISO-coated fuel particles from graphite and/or to separate used HTGR fuel meat from its TRISO coating. The feasibility of these two separation issues is not in doubt, but further R&D could clarify and reduce the cost and enable options not adequately explored at present. The analyses here and the now-demonstrated higher fuel burnup tests (after the illustrative designs studied here) should enable future MOC and full recycle HTGR concepts to more rapidly consume TRU, thereby offering waste management advantages. Interest in “limited separation” or “minimum fuel treatment” separation approaches motivates study of impurity-tolerant fuel fabrication.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Modeling the Energy Use of a Connected and Automated Transportation System (Poster)

Early research points to large potential impacts of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) on transportation energy use - dramatic savings, increased use, or anything in between. Due to a lack of suitable data and integrated modeling tools to explore these complex future systems, analyses to date have relied on simple combinations of isolated effects. This poster proposes a framework for modeling the potential energy implications from increasing penetration of CAV technologies and for assessing technology and policy options to steer them toward favorable energy outcomes. Current CAV modeling challenges include estimating behavior change, understanding potential vehicle-to-vehicle interactions, and assessing traffic flow and vehicle use under different automation scenarios. To bridge these gaps and develop a picture of potential future automated systems, NREL is integrating existing modeling capabilities with additional tools and data inputs to create a more fully integrated CAV assessment toolkit.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

NASA NTRS1972

The law's interface with expanding technology

The role of the law in technology assessment is described in generalized terms of a legal system as it confronts expanding technology. The functions of a technology assessment are considered to be twofold; provide for legislative action designed to channel technological advance along lines which are regarded as optimal from the standpoint of society's interests; and encourage and promote legislative action which will deal decisively with the potential disruptions and injuries caused by technology at a much earlier stage of the growth of the technology than is feasible under the present legal system. It is concluded that since new law always has a disruptive effect on expectations and commitments arrived at under old law, it is generally desirable that new legislation should make the least possible change in the law consistant with accomplishing the desired objective.

Green, H. P.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Human Mars EDL Pathfinder Study: Assessment of Technology Development Gaps and Mitigations

This paper presents the results of a NASA initiated Agency-wide assessment to better characterize the risks and potential mitigation approaches associated with landing human class Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems on Mars. Due to the criticality and long-lead nature of advancing EDL techniques, it is necessary to determine an appropriate strategy to improve the capability to land large payloads. A key focus of this study was to understand the key EDL risks and with a focus on determining what "must" be tested at Mars. This process identified the various risks and potential risk mitigation strategies along with the key near term technology development efforts required and in what environment those technology demonstrations were best suited. The study identified key risks along with advantages to each entry technology. In addition, it was identified that provided the EDL concept of operations (con ops) minimized large scale transition events, there was no technology requirement for a Mars pre-cursor demonstration. Instead, NASA should take a direct path to a human-scale lander.

Lillard, Randolph↗