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At least 343 records · Page 19

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Visualization of hydraulic fracture using physics-informed clustering to process ultrasonic shear waves

Ultrasonic transmission is sensitive to the spatial variation in mechanical properties of materials due to the presence of cracks/fractures. Wave propagation through fractured media introduces changes in the frequency content, travel time and transmission coefficient of the wave. A workflow based on physics-informed unsupervised learning is developed to process the transmitted ultrasonic-shear waveforms to non-invasively visualize the geomechanical alterations due to hydraulic fracturing. Novelty of the work involves the assignment of both statistically consistent and physically consistent clusters to the measurements of shear waveforms acquired across the one axial and two frontal planes. Physically consistent/relevant information is incorporated by considering the travel time of the peak of spectral energy and transmission coefficient of the transmitted waveform. The proposed workflow generates maps of geomechanical alterations across the frontal and axial planes of the sample. The outputs of the workflow are in good agreement with independent techniques viz. acoustic emission and X-ray computed tomography. Finally, the proposed workflow can be adapted for improved fracture characterization in the subsurface when processing sonic-logging, cross-wellbore seismic or surface seismic waveform data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Establishing temperature from radiance of dynamically compressed metals

Precise temperature determination is a significant challenge in extreme environments of dynamic compression studies. How can radiance measurements taken in high-pressure shock experiments constrain temperature in a meaningful and physically consistent way? Experiments maintaining sample compression against a transparent window can be tailored to present a uniform measurement area with uncertain spectral emissivity. We compare several methods to analyze radiance collected at multiple wavelengths, applying statistical methods and physical principles to improve temperature inference. With proper radiance collection and analysis, dynamic temperature uncertainties become comparable to thermomechanical ambiguities of the emitting surface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The generation of surface targets with specified surface statistics

Results are presented from efforts to generate physical surfaces from known or desired surface statistical properties, proceeding from previous work on the generation of random surfaces for use in computer simulations. The known statistical surface is extended using a bicubic spline technique; these results are interfaced with a numerically controlled machine in order to generate the physical surface. A portion of a complete surface with Gaussian statistics was constructed and tested to measure conformity to the desired statistics.

Rochier, J. D.↗

Statistical Analyses of Raw Material Data for MTM45-1/CF7442A-36% RW: CMH Cure Cycle

This report describes statistical characterization of physical properties of the composite material system MTM45-1/CF7442A, which has been tested and is currently being considered for use on spacecraft structures. This composite system is made of 6K plain weave graphite fibers in a highly toughened resin system. This report summarizes the distribution types and statistical details of the tests and the conditions for the experimental data generated. These distributions will be used in multivariate regression analyses to help determine material and design allowables for similar material systems and to establish a procedure for other material systems. Additionally, these distributions will be used in future probabilistic analyses of spacecraft structures. The specific properties that are characterized are the ultimate strength, modulus, and Poisson􀂶s ratio by using a commercially available statistical package. Results are displayed using graphical and semigraphical methods and are included in the accompanying appendixes.

Coroneos, Rula↗

Developing and applying quantifiable metrics for diagnostic and experiment design on Z

This project applies methods in Bayesian inference and modern statistical methods to quantify the value of new experimental data, in the form of new or modified diagnostic configurations and/or experiment designs. We demonstrate experiment design methods that can be used to identify the highest priority diagnostic improvements or experimental data to obtain in order to reduce uncertainties on critical inferred experimental quantities and select the best course of action to distinguish between competing physical models. Bayesian statistics and information theory provide the foundation for developing the necessary metrics, using two high impact experimental platforms on Z as exemplars to develop and illustrate the technique. We emphasize that the general methodology is extensible to new diagnostics (provided synthetic models are available), as well as additional platforms. We also discuss initial scoping of additional applications that began development in the last year of this LDRD.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

WE-A-201-01: Memorial Introduction

Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A statistical analysis of the COHERENT data and applications to new physics

The observation of coherent elastic neutrino nucleus scattering (CEvNS) by the COHERENT collaboration in 2017 has opened a new window to both test Standard Model predictions at relatively low energies and probe new physics scenarios. Our investigations show, however, that a careful treatment of the statistical methods used to analyze the data is essential to derive correct constraints and bounds on new physics parameters. In this manuscript we perform a detailed analysis of the publicly available COHERENT CsI data making use of all available background data. We point out that Wilks’ theorem is not fulfilled in general and a calculation of the confidence regions via Monte Carlo simulations following a Feldman-Cousins procedure is necessary. As an example for the necessity of this approach to test new physics scenarios we quantify the allowed ranges for several scenarios with neutrino non-standard interactions. Furthermore, we provide accompanying code to enable an easy implementation of other new physics scenarios as well as data files of our results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Final Technical Report for Grant No. DE-FC02-01ER54648, SciDAC Center for Simulation of Wave-Plasma Interactions

Harnessing the energy that is released in fusion reactions would provide a safe and abundant source of power to meet the growing energy needs of the world population. The next step toward the development of fusion as a practical energy source is the construction of ITER, a device capable of producing and controlling the high performance plasma required for self-sustaining fusion reactions, or “burning” plasma. The input power required to drive the ITER plasma into the burning regime will be supplied primarily with a combination of external power from radio frequency waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies and energetic ions from neutral beam injection sources, in addition to internally-generated Ohmic heating from the induced plasma current that also serves to create the magnetic equilibrium for the discharge. Since the success of the ITER project depends critically on the ability to create and maintain burning plasma conditions, it is absolutely necessary to have physics-based models that can accurately simulate the RF processes that affect the dynamical evolution of the ITER discharge. The Center for Simulation of Wave-Plasma Interactions (CSWPI) is a multi-institutional collaboration that has conducted ongoing research aimed at developing: (1) Coupled core-to-edge simulations that will lead to an increased understanding of parasitic losses of the applied RF power in the boundary plasma between the RF antenna and the core plasma; (2) Development of models for core interactions of RF waves with energetic electrons and ions (including fusion alpha particles and fast neutral beam ions) that include a more accurate representation of the particle dynamics in the combined equilibrium and wave fields; and (3) Development of improved algorithms that will take advantage of massively parallel computing platforms at the petascale level and beyond to achieve the needed physics, resolution, and/or statistics to address these issues. This research reported in this final technical report is focused on further verification and validation of simulation models for interactions of RF waves with energetic particles in the core with a long term goal of assessing their readiness for inclusion in integrated modeling frameworks and utilizing the world’s largest supercomputers to quantitatively predict the detailed electric field structure in the vicinity of the launching structures.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

SCIDAC Center for simulation of wave particle interactions CompX participation

Harnessing the energy that is released in fusion reactions would provide a safe and abundant source of power to meet the growing energy needs of the world population. The next step toward the development of fusion as a practical energy source is the construction of ITER, a device capable of producing and controlling the high performance plasma required for self-sustaining fusion reactions, or “burning” plasma. The input power required to drive the ITER plasma into the burning regime will be supplied primarily with a combination of external power from radio frequency waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies and energetic ions from neutral beam injection sources, in addition to internally generated Ohmic heating from the induced plasma current that also serves to create the magnetic equilibrium for the discharge. The ITER project is a large multi-billion dollar international project in which the US participates. The success of the ITER project depends critically on the ability to create and maintain burning plasma conditions, it is absolutely necessary to have physics-based models that can accurately simulate the RF processes that affect the dynamical evolution of the ITER discharge. The Center for Simulation of WavePlasma Interactions (CSWPI), also known as RF-SciDAC, is a multi-institutional collaboration that has conducted ongoing research aimed at developing: (1) Coupled core-to-edge simulations that will lead to an increased understanding of parasitic losses of the applied RF power in the boundary plasma between the RF antenna and the core plasma; (2) Development of models for core interactions of RF waves with energetic electrons and ions (including fusion alpha particles and fast neutral beam ions) that include a more accurate representation of the particle dynamics in the combined equilibrium and wave fields; and (3) Development of improved algorithms that will take advantage of massively parallel computing platforms at the petascale level and beyond to achieve the needed physics, resolution, and/or statistics to address these issues. CompX provides computer codes and analysis for the calculation of the electron and ion distributions in velocity-space and plasma radius which are necessary for reliable calculations of power deposition and toroidal current drive due to combined radiofrequency and neutral beam at high injected powers. It has also contributed to ray tracing modeling of injected radiofrequency powers, and to coupling between full-wave radiofrequency wave models and the distribution function calculations. In the course of this research, the Fokker-Planck distribution function calculation was made substantially more realistic by inclusion of finite-width drift-orbit effects (FOW). FOW effects were also implemented in a calculation of the phase-space diffusion resulting from radiofrequency full-wave models. Average level of funding for CompX was approximately three man-months per year.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Comprehensive Library of X-Ray Pulsars in the Small Magellanic Cloud: Time Evolution of Their Luminosities and Spin Periods

We have collected and analyzed the complete archive of XMM-Newton (116), Chandra (151), and RXTE (952) observations of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), spanning 1997–2014. The resulting observational library provides a comprehensive view of the physical, temporal, and statistical properties of the SMC pulsar population across the luminosity range of L{sub X}=10{sup 31.2}--10{sup 38} erg s{sup −1}. From a sample of 65 pulsars we report ∼1654 individual pulsar detections, yielding ∼1260 pulse-period measurements. Our pipeline generates a suite of products for each pulsar detection: spin period, flux, event list, high time-resolution light curve, pulse profile, periodogram, and spectrum. Combining all three satellites, we generated complete histories of the spin periods, pulse amplitudes, pulsed fractions, and X-ray luminosities. Some pulsars show variations in pulse period due to the combination of orbital motion and accretion torques. Long-term spin-up/spin-down trends are seen in 12/11 pulsars, respectively, pointing to sustained transfer of mass and angular momentum to the neutron star on decadal timescales. Of the sample, 30 pulsars have a relatively very small spin period derivative and may be close to equilibrium spin. The distributions of pulse detection and flux as functions of spin period provide interesting findings: mapping boundaries of accretion-driven X-ray luminosity and showing that fast pulsars (P < 10 s) are rarely detected, which as of yet are more prone to giant outbursts. Accompanying this paper is an initial public release of the library so that it can be used by other researchers. We intend the library to be useful in driving improved models of neutron star magnetospheres and accretion physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Efficient computation of N -point correlation functions in D dimensions

We present efficient algorithms for computing the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of random fields in arbitrary D-dimensional homogeneous and isotropic spaces. Such statistics appear throughout the physical sciences and provide a natural tool to describe stochastic processes. Typically, algorithms for computing the NPCF components have $\mathscr O$(n N ) complexity (for a dataset containing n particles); their application is thus computationally infeasible unless N is small. By projecting the statistic onto a suitably defined angular basis, we show that the estimators can be written in a separable form, with complexity $\mathscr O$(n 2 ) or $\mathscr O$(n g log n g ) if evaluated using a Fast Fourier Transform on a grid of size n g . Our decomposition is built upon the D-dimensional hyperspherical harmonics; these form a complete basis on the (D – 1) sphere and are intrinsically related to angular momentum operators. Concatenation of (N – 1) such harmonics gives states of definite combined angular momentum, forming a natural separable basis for the NPCF. As N and D grow, the number of basis components quickly becomes large, providing a practical limitation to this (and all other) approaches: However, the dimensionality is greatly reduced in the presence of symmetries; for example, isotropic correlation functions require only states of zero combined angular momentum. We provide a Julia package implementing our estimators and show how they can be applied to a variety of scenarios within cosmology and fluid dynamics. The efficiency of such estimators will allow higher-order correlators to become a standard tool in the analysis of random fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Statistical Analyses of Satellite Cloud Object Data from CERES: Tropical Convective Cloud Objects During 1998 El Nino and Validation of the Fixed Anvil Temperature Hypothesis - Part II

Characteristics of tropical deep convective cloud objects observed over the tropical Pacific during January-August 1998 are examined using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission/ Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System single scanner footprint (SSF) data. These characteristics include the frequencies of occurrence and statistical distributions of cloud physical properties. Their variations with cloud-object size, sea surface temperature (SST), and satellite precessing cycle are analyzed in detail. A cloud object is defined as a contiguous patch of the Earth composed of satellite footprints within a single dominant cloud-system type. It is found that statistical distributions of cloud physical properties are significantly different among three size categories of cloud objects with equivalent diameters of 100 - 150 km (small), 150 - 300 km (medium), and > 300 km (large), respectively, except for the distributions of ice particle size. The distributions for the larger-size category of cloud objects are more skewed towards high SSTs, high cloud tops, low cloud-top temperature, large ice water path, high cloud optical depth, low outgoing longwave (LW) radiation, and high albedo than the smaller-size category. As SST varied from one satellite precessing cycle to another, the changes in macrophysical properties of cloud objects over the entire tropical Pacific were small for the large-size category of cloud objects, relative to those of the small- and medium-size categories. This result suggests that the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis of Hartmann and Larson may be valid for the large-size category. Combining with the result that a higher percentage of the large-size category of cloud objects occurs during higher SST subperiods, this implies that macrophysical properties of cloud objects would be less sensitive to further warming of the climate. On the other hand, when cloud objects are classified according to SSTs where large-scale dynamics plays important roles, statistical characteristics of cloud microphysical properties, optical depth and albedo are not sensitive to the SST, but those of cloud macrophysical properties are strongly dependent upon the SST. Frequency distributions of vertical velocity from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts model that is matched to each cloud object are used to interpret some of the findings in this study.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Hierarchical, rotation‐equivariant neural networks to select structural models of protein complexes

Abstract Predicting the structure of multi‐protein complexes is a grand challenge in biochemistry, with major implications for basic science and drug discovery. Computational structure prediction methods generally leverage predefined structural features to distinguish accurate structural models from less accurate ones. This raises the question of whether it is possible to learn characteristics of accurate models directly from atomic coordinates of protein complexes, with no prior assumptions. Here we introduce a machine learning method that learns directly from the 3D positions of all atoms to identify accurate models of protein complexes, without using any precomputed physics‐inspired or statistical terms. Our neural network architecture combines multiple ingredients that together enable end‐to‐end learning from molecular structures containing tens of thousands of atoms: a point‐based representation of atoms, equivariance with respect to rotation and translation, local convolutions, and hierarchical subsampling operations. When used in combination with previously developed scoring functions, our network substantially improves the identification of accurate structural models among a large set of possible models. Our network can also be used to predict the accuracy of a given structural model in absolute terms. The architecture we present is readily applicable to other tasks involving learning on 3D structures of large atomic systems.

Eismann, Stephan↗

Virtual refrigerant charge sensing algorithm for residential CO₂ heat pumps

Natural refrigerants are increasingly adopted in next-generation heat pump systems, among which CO₂ heat pumps have attracted significant attention. However, due to their high operating pressures, the leakage risk is higher, resulting in undercharge conditions and degraded heat pump performance. Thus, developing an accurate refrigerant charge level detection technique is necessary to guarantee safe and efficient operation. Although virtual refrigerant charge (VRC) level calculation algorithms for CO₂ heat pumps exist, they typically rely on empirically selected features without a systematic selection framework, leading to multicollinearity and potential overfitting, which limit their prediction accuracy and generalizability. To address these issues, this study proposes a VRC algorithm framework with a systematic feature selection method that identifies physically meaningful and statistically significant features, and is applied using a residential CO₂ heat pump as a case study. The method is extended from previous work on conventional refrigerants to account for charge behavior in CO₂ gas coolers. The selected features include gas cooler outlet density, evaporator pressure, and superheat temperature. The results demonstrate that the proposed feature selection method significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to existing VRC approaches. A relatively small training dataset (∼30 samples) is sufficient for feature identification and model development. The developed algorithm achieves less than 3% prediction error under both undercharge and overcharge conditions, representing reductions of 46.7% and 35.3% compared to two recent reference VRC algorithms for transcritical CO₂ heat pumps reported in the literature. The proposed algorithm and feature selection method enhance leakage detection capability, facilitate the deployment of CO₂ heat pump systems, and contribute to reduced energy waste and maintenance costs.

Guo, Fangzhou [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

An Objective and Efficient Method for Assessing the Impact of Reduced-Precision Calculations On Solution Correctness

Recent studies have shown that reducing the precision of floating-point calculations in an atmospheric model can improve the models' computational performance without affecting model fidelity, but code changes are needed to accommodate lower precision, and a small number of calculations might need to retain higher precision to prevent undue round-off error. For complex and computationally expensive systems like the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a method is needed to objectively assess the quality of the lower-precision simulations and to quickly identify problematic code pieces This paper demonstrates that solution correctness can be evaluated through a simple and quantitative error metric based on time step convergence. The proposed test method can unambiguously detect the accumulation of precision error and objectively assess its impact on solution accuracy. Since fast physical processes are known to affect key features of the multi-year mean climate in an atmospheric model, we show that the convergence test applied to short simulations can provide useful information about the impact of reduced precision on a model’s long-term behavior. In contrast, the traditional way of climate model evaluation requires multi-year simulations and involves inspecting many physical quantities for statistical significance in the presence of natural variability. The simplicity, computational efficiency, and objectivity of the proposed method makes it very attractive for high-resolution model development. The method is also expected to be applicable to other models that numerically solve time evolution equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Planck 2015 results: XXII. A map of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect

In this article, we have constructed all-sky Compton parameters maps, y-maps, of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect by applying specifically tailored component separation algorithms to the 30 to 857 GHz frequency channel maps from the Planck satellite. These reconstructed y-maps are delivered as part of the Planck 2015 release. The y-maps are characterized in terms of noise properties and residual foreground contamination, mainly thermal dust emission at large angular scales, and cosmic infrared background and extragalactic point sources at small angular scales. Specific masks are defined to minimize foreground residuals and systematics. Using these masks, we compute the y-map angular power spectrum and higher order statistics. From these we conclude that the y-map is dominated by tSZ signal in the multipole range, 20 <ℓ< 600. Lastly, we compare the measured tSZ power spectrum and higher order statistics to various physically motivated models and discuss the implications of our results in terms of cluster physics and cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗