Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

In-process monitoring and prediction of droplet quality in droplet-on-demand liquid metal jetting additive manufacturing using machine learning

Abstract In droplet-on-demand liquid metal jetting (DoD-LMJ) additive manufacturing, complex physical interactions govern the droplet characteristics, such as size, velocity, and shape. These droplet characteristics, in turn, determine the functional quality of the printed parts. Hence, to ensure repeatable and reliable part quality it is necessary to monitor and control the droplet characteristics. Existing approaches for in-situ monitoring of droplet behavior in DoD-LMJ rely on high-speed imaging sensors. The resulting high volume of droplet images acquired is computationally demanding to analyze and hinders real-time control of the process. To overcome this challenge, the objective of this work is to use time series data acquired from an in-process millimeter-wave sensor for predicting the size, velocity, and shape characteristics of droplets in DoD-LMJ process. As opposed to high-speed imaging, this sensor produces data-efficient time series signatures that allows rapid, real-time process monitoring. We devise machine learning models that use the millimeter-wave sensor data to predict the droplet characteristics. Specifically, we developed multilayer perceptron-based non-linear autoregressive models to predict the size and velocity of droplets. Likewise, a supervised machine learning model was trained to classify the droplet shape using the frequency spectrum information contained in the millimeter-wave sensor signatures. High-speed imaging data served as ground truth for model training and validation. These models captured the droplet characteristics with a statistical fidelity exceeding 90%, and vastly outperformed conventional statistical modeling approaches. Thus, this work achieves a practically viable sensing approach for real-time quality monitoring of the DoD-LMJ process, in lieu of the existing data-intensive image-based techniques.

Gaikwad, Aniruddha (ORCID:0000000285642621)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning-based predictive models for laser direct drive at the Omega Laser Facility

The rich and complex physics of inertial confinement fusion provides a unique and challenging space for high-fidelity first-principles modeling. Consequently, simulation codes that are used to design experiments are computationally expensive and lack the predictive capability required for extensive parameter exploration in search of a high-performing design for laser direct drive. In this article, we present two deep-learning-based predictive models intended to address these difficulties. The first model (TL DNN) acts as a fast emulator of simulations as well as experiments at the Omega Laser Facility. This model is trained on a simulation database and subsequently calibrated on experimental data using transfer learning. To facilitate the development of this model, an autoencoder is developed to reduce the dimensionality of the input space by compressing the laser pulse input. The model predicts key experimental scalar observables of Omega experiments with high accuracy and minimal computational cost. This deep neural net enables rapid exploration of a high-dimensional input parameter space for an optimal implosion design. The second model (DNN SM+) aims to extend the statistical modeling work of Lees et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 105001 (2021)], by increasing the complexity of the model space and allowing for coupling between degradation terms. Since the model capacity of DNN SM+ is higher than the model of Lees et al., DNN SM+ can potentially provide an improvement in predictive capability, and we use this model to provide insight into complicated degradation dependencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

InClass nets: independent classifier networks for nonparametric estimation of conditional independence mixture models and unsupervised classification

Abstract Conditional independence mixture models (CIMMs) are an important class of statistical models used in many fields of science. We introduce a novel unsupervised machine learning technique called the independent classifier networks (InClass nets) technique for the nonparameteric estimation of CIMMs. InClass nets consist of multiple independent classifier neural networks (NNs), which are trained simultaneously using suitable cost functions. Leveraging the ability of NNs to handle high-dimensional data, the conditionally independent variates of the model are allowed to be individually high-dimensional, which is the main advantage of the proposed technique over existing non-machine-learning-based approaches. Two new theorems on the nonparametric identifiability of bivariate CIMMs are derived in the form of a necessary and a (different) sufficient condition for a bivariate CIMM to be identifiable. We use the InClass nets technique to perform CIMM estimation successfully for several examples. We provide a public implementation as a Python package called RainDancesVI.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of MCNP Critical Benchmark Models of PU-MET-FAST-016 [Slides]

The validation of PU-MET-FAST-016 contributed to the centralized LANL benchmark repository currently under development. The revisions made the MCNP models statistically, significantly more similar to the benchmark models. The overall impact on the USL is negligible. The revisions to the PU-MET-FAST-016 models provide value to the Los Alamos Benchmark Suite without invalidating past Whisper results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Indicators of the Performance of Large Language Models

In several mission contexts, it is desirable to estimate the performance of large language models (LLMs) on tasks that we cannot run directly. In light of published “scaling laws” our hypothesis is that some tasks should be consistently more challenging than others based on characteristics of the task. The goal of this project was to begin quantifying how much information about LLM performance can be gained from the features of a model and a task. Two of our statistical models struggled to converge. Pass/fail test results may provide limited information for inference beyond model quality and task difficulty, but we see no evidence at this time for significant feature interaction effect sizes, arguing for simple models. Future work extending the models to capitalize on perplexity of ground truth answers is suggested. This project also introduces “Depth of Knowledge Variant Testing” as a strategy for more finely assessing language models on open domain question and answer tasks. We developed sets of questions that ask a language model to produce similar information while demonstrating increasing depth of knowledge, and also relabeled existing Q&A test questions with their depth of knowledge. Our results suggest further consideration of Bloom’s taxonomy and further refinement of prompts to properly elicit information at varying depths. In the course of this work, we set up a basic infrastructure for standardizing tasks and testing many language models on these tasks. In addition to testing the predictive quality of model features and performance across test suites, with this project we have introduced two new task features to contextualize each test question: the Dewey Classification main category of information covered, and the Bloom’s taxonomy level that corresponds to the depth of knowledge probed by the question. Splits across these and other features produced over five hundred task subtypes with distinct feature vectors, which we tested on half a dozen models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian chain graph models to characterize microbe-environment dynamics

Microbiome data require statistical models that can simultaneously decode microbes' reaction to the environment and interactions among microbes. While a multiresponse linear regression model seems like a straight-forward solution, we argue that treating it as a graphical model is problematic given that the regression coefficient matrix does not encode the conditional dependence structure between response and predictor nodes. This observation is especially important in biological settings when we have prior knowledge on the edges from specific experimental interventions that can only be properly encoded under a conditional dependence model. Here, we propose a chain graph model with two sets of nodes (predictors and responses) whose solution yields a graph with edges that indeed represent conditional dependence, thus agreeing with the experimenter's intuition on the average behavior of nodes under treatment. The solution to our model is sparse via the Bayesian linear regression (LASSO). In addition, we propose an adaptive extension so that different shrinkages can be applied to different edges to incorporate edge-specific prior knowledge. Our model is computationally inexpensive through an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm and can account for binary, counting, and compositional responses via an appropriate hierarchical structure. We test the performance of our model in a variety of simulated datasets, thereby showing superior performance to state-of-the-art approaches. We further apply our model to human gut and soil microbial compositional datasets, and we highlight that CG-LASSO can estimate biologically meaningful network structures in the data.

compositional data↗
NASA NTRS1973

Coordination procedure for radio relay and communication satellite services

A global rain rate statistic model is used to link microwave propagation statistics to measurable rain statistics in order to develop international telecommunication site criteria for radio relay and communication satellite services that minimize interference between receivers and transmitters. This rain coordination procedure utilizes a rain storm cell size, a statistical description of the rainfall rate within the cell valid for most of the earth's surface, approximations between Raleigh scatter and constancy of precipitation with altitude, and an analytic relation between radar reflectivity and rain rate.

Eckerman, J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Magnetospheric plasma modeling (0-100 keV)

Spacecraft surface charging, which is primarily a current balance phenomenon, is in general a function of the dominant currents to and from the vehicle's surface. Within the near-earth magnetosphere the dominant currents to the surface are the ambient space plasma fluxes between approximately 0 and 100 keV. A major effort to understand the near-earth environment was initiated when spacecraft charging became a major issue. The present paper has the objective to summarize the basic features of the models which have resulted from this effort. A description is given of four categories of models, based primarily on the degree of empirical and theoretical input. Types of quantitative models are discussed, taking into account definitions, statistical models, analytic models, static models, and time-dependent models. Engineering models are also considered, giving attention to baseline models and 'worst-case' models.

Garrett, H. B.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Summertime photochemistry of the troposphere at high northern latitudes

Budgets of O3, NO(x), and NO(y), and acetic acid in the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A) flight region are constructed using photochemical model statistics based on aircraft observations. A Lagrangian model is used to reconstruct the photochemical history of two aged biomass fire plumes sampled by the ABLE 3A aircraft. It is shown that anthropogenic influence on O3 levels in the Arctic may manifest itself not by long-range transport of pollution-derived O3, but rather by a decrease of the regional photochemical sink due to the presence of small amounts of NO(x). The low concentrations of NO(x) measured in ABLE 3A were sufficient to reduce the rate of photochemical loss appreciably relative to a NO(x)-free atmosphere, thus increasing the O3 lifetime. It is shown that decomposition of PAN can account for most of the NO(x) measured below 4-km altitude, but for only 20 percent at 6-km altitude. A lifetime of 29 days is estimated for NO(y) in the ABLE 23A flight region.

Jacob, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Stochastic performance modeling and evaluation of obstacle detectability with imaging range sensors

Statistical modeling and evaluation of the performance of obstacle detection systems for Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) is essential for the design, evaluation, and comparison of sensor systems. In this report, we address this issue for imaging range sensors by dividing the evaluation problem into two levels: quality of the range data itself and quality of the obstacle detection algorithms applied to the range data. We review existing models of the quality of range data from stereo vision and AM-CW LADAR, then use these to derive a new model for the quality of a simple obstacle detection algorithm. This model predicts the probability of detecting obstacles and the probability of false alarms, as a function of the size and distance of the obstacle, the resolution of the sensor, and the level of noise in the range data. We evaluate these models experimentally using range data from stereo image pairs of a gravel road with known obstacles at several distances. The results show that the approach is a promising tool for predicting and evaluating the performance of obstacle detection with imaging range sensors.

Matthies, Larry↗
NASA NTRS2000

Operational Implementation of a 2-Hour Prebreathe Protocol for International Space Station

Procedures, equipment, and analytical techniques were developed to implement the ground tested 2-hour protocol in-flight operations. The methods are: 1) The flight protocol incorporates additional safety margin over the ground tested protocol. This includes up to 20 min of additional time on enriched O2 during suit purge and pressure check, increased duration of extravehicular activity (EVA) preparation exercise during O2 prebreathing (up to 90 min vs; the tested 24 min), and reduced rates of depressurization. The ground test observations were combined with model projections of the conservative measures (using statistical models from Duke University and NASA JSQ to bound the risk of Type I and Type II decompression sickness (DCS). 2) An inflight exercise device using the in-flight ergometer and elastic tubes for upper body exercise was developed to replicate the dual cycle exercise in the ground trials. 3) A new in-flight breathing system was developed and man-tested. 4) A process to monitor inflight experience with the protocol, including the use of an in-suit Doppler bubble monitor when available, was developed. The results are: 1) The model projections of the conservative factors of the operational protocol were shown to reduce the risk of DCS to levels consistent with the observations of no DCS to date in the shuttle program. 2) Cross over trials of the dual cycle ergometer used in ground tests and the in-flight exercise system verified that02consumption and the % division of work between upper and lower body was not significantly different at the p= 0.05 level. 3) The in-flight breathing system was demonstrated to support work rates generating 75% O2(max) in 95 percentile subjects. 4) An in-flight monitoring plan with acceptance criteria was put in place for the 2-hour prebreathe protocol. And the conclusions are: The 2-hour protocol has been approved for flight, and all implementation efforts are in place to allow use of the protocol as early as flight ISS 7A, now scheduled in November of 2000.

Waligora, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling

Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.

Model ensembles↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-ion battery physics and statistics-based state of health model

A pseudo-2d model using COMSOL Multiphysics® software is developed to simulate performance and performance degradation of Li-ion batteries consisting of layered and olivine cathodes with graphite anode when subjected to peak shaving grid service. Multiple degradation pathways are considered, including solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation and breakdown at the anode, cathode dissolution and its synergistic effect on SEI formation at the anode. The model is validated by simulating commercial cylindrical cell performance. A global model is developed to simulate performance across all chemistries, along with individual chemistry models using global model parameters as initial values. There is good agreement between these models for various optimization parameters such as SEI equilibrium potential, cathode dissolution exchange current density, solvent diffusivity in the SEI and SEI ionic conductivity. To circumvent time constraints related to the COMSOL model, a 0d global model is developed which fits data well and provides more clarity on differences in cathode dissolution exchange current density. Again, good agreement for various optimization parameters is obtained among the COMSOL global & individual chemistry models and the 0-d model. The lessons learned from the physics-based model is used to develop a top down statistics-based model using current, voltage and anode volumetric change per mole lithium intercalated, along with their interactions as degradation predictors. This model predicts out of sample degradation for multiple grid services and electric vehicle drive cycle with high accuracy and provides the pathway to develop an efficient battery management system combining machine learning and findings from physics-based computationally intensive algorithms.

Crawford, Aladsair J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Framework for Software Health Management Using Bayesian Statistics

Software Health Management (SWHM) must make sure that the software always remains in safe and healthy regions of the state space. Boundaries between healthy and unhealthy regions are important for the detection of violations and health management.In this position paper, we present a framework, which employs techniques from Bayesian statistical modeling and active learning to efficiently characterize health boundaries in high-dimensional spaces. We will discuss, how this framework supports SWHM during design time and during operation of learning/adapting software systems

software health management↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using data-science approaches to unravel insights for enhanced transport of lithium ions in single-ion conducting polymer electrolyte

Solid polymer electrolytes have yet to achieve the an ionic conductivity > 1 mS/cm at room temperature for realistic applications. This target implies the need to reduce the effective energy barriers of ion transport in polymer electrolytes to around 20 kJ/mol. In this work, we combine information extracted from existing experimental results with theoretical calculations to provide insights into ion transport in single-ion conductors (SICs) with a focus on lithium ion SICs. Through the analysis of temperature-dependent ionic conductivity data obtained from the literature, we evaluate different methods of extracting energy barriers for lithium transport. The traditional Arrhenius fit to the temperature-dependent ionic conductivity data indicates that the Meyer-Neldel rule holds for SICs. However, the values of the fitting parameters remain unphysical. Our modified approach based on recent work (Macromolecules, 56, 15, 6051(2023)), which incorporates a fixed pre-exponential factor, reveals that the energy barriers exhibit temperature dependence over a wide range of temperatures. Using this approach, we identify a series of anions leading to the energy barriers less than 30 kJ/mol, which include trifluoromethane sulfonimide (TFSI), fluoromethane sulfonimide (FSI), and boron-based organic anions. In our efforts to design the next generation of anions, which can exhibit the energy barriers less than 20 kJ/mol, we focused on boron-containing SICs, and performed density functional theory (DFT) based calculations to connect the chemical structures via the binding energy of cation (lithium)-anion pairs with the experimentally derived effective energy barriers for ion transport. Not only have we identified a correlation between the binding energy and the energy barriers, but we also propose a strategy to design new boron-based anions by using the correlation. This combined approach involving experiments and theoretical calculations is capable of facilitating the identification of promising new anions, which can exhibit ionic conductivity $> 1$ mS/cm near room temperature, thereby expediting the development of novel superionic single-ion conducting polymer electrolytes. The published datasets include all the temperature-dependent ionic conductivity collected from the literature with literature DOIs, DFT calculated binding energies, and python scripts to analyze data, construct statistical models, and generate plots.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1978

Statistical considerations in design of spacelab experiments

After making an analysis of experimental error sources, statistical models were developed for the design and analysis of potential Space Shuttle experiments. Guidelines for statistical significance and/or confidence limits of expected results were also included. The models were then tested out on the following proposed Space Shuttle biomedical experiments: (1) bone density by computer tomography; (2) basal metabolism; and (3) total body water. Analysis of those results and therefore of the models proved inconclusive due to the lack of previous research data and statistical values. However, the models were seen as possible guides to making some predictions and decisions.

Robinson, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Framework for the Analysis of Deep Neural Networks in Autonomous Aerospace Applications using Bayesian Statistics

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are considered to be key components in many autonomous systems. Applications range from vision-based obstacle avoidance to intelligent/learning control and planning. Safety-critical applications as found in the aerospace domain require that the behavior of the DNN is validated and tested rigorously for safety of the autonomous system (AUS). In this paper, we present a framework to support testing of DNNs and the analysis of the network structure. Our framework employs techniques from statistical modeling and active learning to effectively generate test cases for DNN safety testing and performance analysis. We will present results of a case study on a physics-based Deep recurrent residual neural network (DR-RNN), which has been trained to emulate the aerodynamics behavior of a fixed-wing aircraft.

Deep Neural networks↗
NASA NTRS1980

Numerical simulation of plasma insulator interactions in space. Part 2: Dielectric effects

Any process which may be modeled statistically for a simple plasma particle may be modeled by the particle in cell technique. The success of the calculation is then dependent on having a large enough number of particles that the statistical treatment is meaningful. Thus it is possible to include the effects of secondary emission, backscattering, charge sticking and possibly dielectric breakdown, photoemission, and spallation. The first plasma dielectric interaction included in the computer code for simulating plasma insulator interactions is secondary electron emission. A calculated current density vs. voltage curve is presented and compared to an experimental curve.

Chaky, R. C.↗