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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK X. Planck Low Frequency Instrument frequency maps with sample-based error propagation

We present Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) frequency sky maps derived within the BEYONDPLANCK framework. This framework draws samples from a global posterior distribution that includes instrumental, astrophysical, and cosmological parameters, and the main product is an entire ensemble of frequency sky map samples, each of which corresponds to one possible realization of the various modeled instrumental systematic corrections, including correlated noise, time-variable gain, as well as far sidelobe and bandpass corrections. This ensemble allows for computationally convenient end-to-end propagation of low-level instrumental uncertainties into higher-level science products, including astrophysical component maps, angular power spectra, and cosmological parameters. We show that the two dominant sources of LFI instrumental systematic uncertainties are correlated noise and gain fluctuations, and the products presented here support – for the first time – full Bayesian error propagation for these effects at full angular resolution. We compared our posterior mean maps with traditional frequency maps delivered by the Planck Collaboration, and find generally good agreement. The most important quality improvement is due to significantly lower calibration uncertainties in the new processing, as we find a fractional absolute calibration uncertainty at 70 GHz of Δg 0 /g 0 = 5 x 10 -5 , which is nominally 40 times smaller than that reported by Planck 2018. However, we also note that the original Planck 2018 estimate has a nontrivial statistical interpretation, and this further illustrates the advantage of the new framework in terms of producing self-consistent and well-defined error estimates of all involved quantities without the need of ad hoc uncertainty contributions. We describe how low-resolution data products, including dense pixel-pixel covariance matrices, may be produced from the posterior samples directly, without the need for computationally expensive analytic calculations or simulations. We conclude that posterior-based frequency map sampling provides unique capabilities in terms of low-level systematics modeling and error propagation, and may play an important role for future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) B-mode experiments aiming at nanokelvin precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of thermodynamic fluctuations and pattern size on the nucleation behavior during area selective deposition

In this work, the authors explore the impact that thermodynamic fluctuations have on the spontaneous appearance of defects during area selective deposition on patterned surfaces that are fully covered by adsorbates under local thermodynamic equilibrium, such as self-assembled monolayers. By using a simple lattice gas model for the adsorbed monolayer, the authors were able to track the spontaneous formation of defects in the monolayer as a function of the pattern width. The results indicate that, for pattern widths of the order of tens of nanometers, roughening effects at the pattern edge can be the leading source for the spontaneous appearance of nucleation defects. This leads to an enhancement of the density of defects that can be up to three orders of magnitude higher than those expected in uniform (not patterned) surfaces. The model also predicts a density of defects that is inversely proportional to the pattern width. Finally, if the dynamic nucleation of defects during area selective deposition is driven by thermodynamic fluctuations, the model predicts that the nucleation rate should be proportional to the total precursor fluency and independent of purge times. Moreover, a tight confinement of the monolayer through a high quality smooth interface in the patterned substrate and strong cohesive interactions between adsorbates should each contribute to a reduction of the overall defect density.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supernova-driven Turbulent Metal Mixing in High-redshift Galactic Disks: Metallicity Fluctuations in the Interstellar Medium and its Imprints on Metal-poor Stars in the Milky Way

The extent to which turbulence mixes gas in the face of recurrent infusions of fresh metals by supernovae (SN) could help provide important constraints on the local star formation conditions. This includes predictions of the metallicity dispersion among metal-poor stars, which suggests that the interstellar medium was not very well mixed at these early times. The purpose of this Letter is to help isolate, via a series of numerical experiments, some of the key processes that regulate turbulent mixing of SN elements in galactic disks. We study the gas interactions in small simulated patches of a galaxy disk with the goal of resolving the small-scale mixing effects of metals at parsec scales, which enables us to measure the turbulent diffusion coefficient in various galaxy environments. By investigating the statistics of variations of α elements in these simulations, we are able to derive constraints not only on the allowed range of intrinsic yield variations in SN explosions but also on the star formation history of the Milky Way. We argue that the observed dispersion of [Mg/Fe] in metal-poor halo stars is compatible with the star-forming conditions expected in dwarf satellites or in an early low-star-forming Milky Way progenitor. In particular, metal variations in stars that have not been phase-mixed can be used to infer the star-forming conditions of disrupted dwarf satellites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nonequilibrium universality of the nonreciprocally coupled 𝑂⁡(𝑛 1 ) × 𝑂⁡(𝑛 2 ) model

Nonequilibrium dynamics play an important role in all contexts of physics, both classical and quantum as well as living and nonliving, so it is crucial to develop a foundational understanding of nonequilibrium phase transitions. In this work we investigate an important class of nonequilibrium dynamics in the form of nonreciprocal interactions. In particular we study how nonreciprocal coupling between two 𝑂⁡(𝑛𝑖) order parameters (with 𝑖 = 1,2) affects the universality at a multicritical point, extending the analysis of J. T. Young et al. [Phys. Rev. X 10, 011039 (2020)], which considered the case 𝑛 1 = 𝑛 2 = 1, i.e., a ℤ 2 × ℤ 2 model. We show that nonequilibrium fixed points (NEFPs) emerge for a broad range of 𝑛 1 ,𝑛 2 and exhibit intrinsically nonequilibrium critical phenomena, namely a violation of fluctuation-dissipation relations at all scales and underdamped oscillations near criticality in contrast to the overdamped relaxational dynamics of the corresponding equilibrium models. Furthermore, the NEFPs exhibit an emergent discrete scale invariance in certain physically relevant regimes of 𝑛 1 ,𝑛 2 , but not others, depending on whether the critical exponent 𝜈 is real or complex. The boundary between these two regions is described by an exceptional point in the renormalization group (RG) flow, leading to distinctive features in correlation functions and the phase diagram. Another contrast with the previous work is the number and stability of the NEFPs as well as the underlying topology of the RG flow. Lastly, we investigate an extreme form of nonreciprocity where one order parameter is independent of the other order parameter but not vice versa. Unlike the ℤ 2 × ℤ 2 model, which becomes nonperturbative in this case, we identify a distinct nonequilibrium universality class whose dependent field similarly violates fluctuation-dissipation relations but does not exhibit discrete scale invariance or underdamped oscillations near criticality.

Critical phenomena↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling and Complexity of Stress Fluctuations Associated with Smooth and Jerky Flow in FeCoNiTiAl High-Entropy Alloy

Recent observations of jerky flow in high-entropy alloys (HEA) revealed a high role of self-organization of dislocations in their plasticity. The present work reports the first results of the investigation of stress fluctuations during plastic deformation of an FeCoNiTiAl alloy, examined in a wide temperature range covering both smooth and jerky flow. These fluctuations, which accompany the overall deformation behavior representing an essentially slower stress evolution controlled by the work hardening, were processed using complementary approaches comprising Fourier spectral analysis, refined composite multiscale entropy, and multifractal formalisms. The joint analysis at distinct scales testified that even a macroscopically smooth plastic flow is accompanied by nonrandom fluctuations, disclosing the self-organized dynamics of dislocations. Qualitative changes in such a fine-scale “noise” were found with varying temperature. The observed diversity is significant for understanding the relationships between different scales of plasticity of HEAs and crystal materials in general.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supernova neutrino signals based on long-term axisymmetric simulations

ABSTRACT We study theoretical neutrino signals from core-collapse supernova (CCSN) computed using axisymmetric CCSN simulations that cover the post-bounce phase up to ∼4 s. We provide basic quantities of the neutrino signals such as event rates, energy spectra, and cumulative number of events at some terrestrial neutrino detectors, and then discuss some new features in the late phase that emerge in our models. Contrary to popular belief, neutrino emissions in the late phase are not always steady, but rather have temporal fluctuations, the vigour of which hinges on the CCSN model and neutrino flavour. We find that such temporal variations are not primarily driven by proto-neutron star convection, but by fallback accretion in exploding models. We assess the detectability of these temporal variations, and find that IceCube is the most promising detector with which to resolve them. We also update fitting formulae first proposed in our previous paper for which the total neutrino energy emitted at the CCSN source is estimated from the cumulative number of events in each detector. This will be a powerful technique with which to analyse real observations, particularly for low-statistics data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Studying Rate of Fire Spread Using Landscape Statistics and FIRETEC

Wildfires are multi-system and multi-scale processes that are influenced by the land and atmosphere. Here, we study the influence of land, in terms of topography and vegetation, on uphill and downhill fire spread using data of the state of California as a testbed. The California landscape is first quantified by reclassifying its dominant vegetation types into grass, trees, and shrubs. Next, statistics of slope, vegetation height, and live fuel moisture percentage for each dominant vegetation type are gathered to create ensembles of idealized computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model simulations representative of the landscape. Rate of spread values for each CFD simulation are recorded to observe the differences in perturbing slope and fuel moisture for each vegetation type. We have found that all vegetation types prefer slopes of less than 30 degrees. Trees in the California data are 10 to 40 meters high, whereas shrub heights are less than 3 meters and grass heights are less than 1 meter. The live fuel moisture percentage of both trees and shrubs fluctuates around approximately 100% over one year (2019-2020). Using these parameters as inputs into the CFD model, fire spread rate is found to be fastest in the grass ensemble (maximum 12 m s -1 ), followed by shrubs (maximum 10 m s -1 ) and lastly by trees (maximum 7 m s -1 ). Increasing slope increases the spread rate of the uphill fire but the downhill spread decreases for slopes greater than 15 degrees. Increasing fuel moisture decreases the spread rate both up and down the hill. This study highlights the impacts that topography and vegetation have on fire spread.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable tokamak-agnostic forecasting of fusion plasma instability via megahertz turbulent fluctuations

Scientific applications of artificial intelligence (AI) often remain limited by device-specific training and unexplained “black-box” approaches, creating fundamental barriers to cross-system generalization. This challenge is critical for nuclear fusion, where future reactors will have limited operational data for AI training. Here, we demonstrate that our neural network, trained solely on megahertz-scale turbulence measurements from one machine (DIII-D), forecasts Type-I edge localized mode (ELM) onsets in a different tokamak (KSTAR) through zero-shot weight transfer following physics-consistent preprocessing without device-specific retraining. Through an explainable AI framework combining gradient-weighted class activation mapping with physics validation, we reveal that our network can internalize physics relationships governing the ELM instabilities rather than memorizing device-specific patterns. The network perceives spatiotemporal features that correlate consistently with independently calculated instability growth rates, magnetohydrodynamic stability limits, and pedestal structure dynamics. Statistical analyses of dimensionally-reduced saliency features reveal the identical triangular features between the saliency representations, instability growth rates, and prediction probability across tokamaks, providing evidence that our forecasting system can show tokamak-agnostic generalization. This work contributes to a foundation for explainable scientific AI systems, where cross-system developments are essential for transcending traditional domain-specific constraints.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unified and Consistent Structure Growth Measurements from Joint ACT, SPT, and Planck CMB Lensing

We present the tightest cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing constraints to date on the growth of structure by combining CMB lensing measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), the South Pole Telescope (SPT), and Planck. Each of these surveys individually provides lensing measurements with similarly high statistical power, achieving signal-to-noise ratios of approximately 40. The combined lensing band powers represent the most precise CMB lensing power spectrum measurement to date with a signal-to-noise ratio of 61 and an amplitude of A lens recon = 1.025 ± 0.017 with respect to the theory prediction from the best-fit CMB Planck-ACT cosmology. The band powers from all three lensing datasets, analyzed jointly, yield a 1.6% measurement of the parameter combination S 8 CMBL ≡ σ 8 ( Ω m / 0.3 ) 0.25 = 0.82 5 - 0.013 + 0.015 . Including dark energy spectroscopic instrument baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data improves the constraint on the amplitude of matter fluctuations to σ 8 = 0.829 ± 0.009 (a 1.1% determination). When combining with uncalibrated supernovae from Pantheon+, we present a 4% sound-horizon-independent estimate of H 0 = 66.4 ± 2.5 km s - 1 Mpc - 1 . The joint lensing constraints on structure growth and present-day Hubble rate are fully consistent with a Λ CDM model fit to the primary CMB data from Planck and ACT. While the precise upper limit is sensitive to the choice of data and underlying model assumptions, when varying the neutrino mass sum within the Λ CDM cosmological model, the combination of primary CMB, BAO, and CMB lensing drives the probable upper limit for the mass sum towards lower values, comparable to the minimum mass prior required by neutrino oscillation experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Energy-Integrated Analysis for Measuring the Anomalous Precession Frequenzc for the Muon g - 2 Experiment at Fermilab

In the search for physics beyond the Standard Model, the Muon g - 2 Experiment at Fermilab (E989) will make the most precise measurement of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, a μ . Improvements in precision come from both increased statistics and new techniques to significantly reduce previous systematic uncertainties. The muon a μ is determined by extracting both the anomalous spin precession frequency, ω a , and the average magnetic field sampled by the muons, B. Traditionally an energy threshold analysis method which requires reconstruction of decay positrons from the muon decay, μ + → e + ν e ν μ has been used to extract ω a . This thesis will describe a novel, energy-integrated analysis method for ωa extraction that does not require full reconstruction of positron hits and lowers the energy threshold therefore sampling more of the stored muons. This new technique has different sensitivities to effects like gain fluctuations and positron pulse pile-up. The analysis results will focus on data taken in 2019, the second year of running the experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unified and consistent structure growth measurements from joint ACT, SPT and \textit{Planck} CMB lensing

We present the tightest cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing constraints to date on the growth of structure by combining CMB lensing measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and \textit{Planck}. Each of these surveys individually provides lensing measurements with similarly high statistical power, achieving signal-to-noise ratios of approximately 40. The combined lensing bandpowers represent the most precise CMB lensing power spectrum measurement to date with a signal-to-noise ratio of 61 and an amplitude of $A_\mathrm{lens}^\mathrm{recon} = 1.025 \pm 0.017$ with respect to the theory prediction from the best-fit CMB \textit{Planck}-ACT cosmology. The bandpowers from all three lensing datasets, analyzed jointly, yield a $1.6\%$ measurement of the parameter combination $S_8^\mathrm{CMBL} \equiv σ_8\,(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.25} = 0.825^{+0.015}_{-0.013}$. Including Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data improves the constraint on the amplitude of matter fluctuations to $σ_8 = 0.829 \pm 0.009$ (a $1.1\%$ determination). When combining with uncalibrated supernovae from \texttt{Pantheon+}, we present a $4\%$ sound-horizon-independent estimate of $H_0=66.4\pm2.5\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}} $. The joint lensing constraints on structure growth and present-day Hubble rate are fully consistent with a $Λ$CDM model fit to the primary CMB data from \textit{Planck} and ACT. While the precise upper limit is sensitive to the choice of data and underlying model assumptions, when varying the neutrino mass sum within the $Λ\mathrm{CDM}$ cosmological model, the combination of primary CMB, BAO and CMB lensing drives the probable upper limit for the mass sum towards lower values, comparable to the minimum mass prior required by neutrino oscillation experiments.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗
DOE OSTI2023

A statistical mechanics framework for polymer chain scission, based on the concepts of distorted bond potential and asymptotic matching

To design increasingly tough, resilient, and fatigue-resistant elastomers and hydrogels, the relationship between controllable network parameters at the molecular level (bond type, non-uniform chain length, entanglement density, etc.) to macroscopic quantities that govern damage and failure must be established. Many of the most successful constitutive models for elastomers have been rooted in statistical mechanical treatments of polymer chains. Typically, such constitutive models have used variants of the freely jointed chain model with rigid links. However, since the free energy state of a polymer chain is dominated by enthalpic bond distortion effects as the chain approaches its rupture point, bond extensibility ought to be accounted for if the model is intended to capture chain rupture. To that end, a new bond potential is supplemented to the freely jointed chain model (as derived in the u FJC framework of Buche and Silberstein (2021) and Buche et al. (2022)), which we have extended to yield a tractable, closed-form model of single chain behavior that should be amenable to continuum-level constitutive model development. Inspired by the asymptotically matched u FJC model response in both the low/intermediate chain force and high chain force regimes, a simple, quasi-polynomial bond potential energy function is derived. This bond potential exhibits harmonic behavior near the equilibrium state and anharmonic behavior for large bond stretches tending to a characteristic energy plateau (akin to the Lennard-Jones and Morse bond potentials). Using this bond potential, approximate yet highly-accurate analytical functions for bond stretch and chain force dependent upon chain stretch are established. Then, using this polymer chain model, a stochastic thermal fluctuation-driven chain rupture framework is developed. This framework is based upon a force-modified tilted bond potential that accounts for distortional bond potential energy, allowing for the derivation and subsequent calculation of the dissipated chain scission energy. Here, the cases of rate-dependent and rate-independent scission are accounted for throughout the rupture framework. The impact of Kuhn segment number on chain rupture behavior is also investigated. The model is fit to single chain mechanical response data collected from atomic force microscopy tensile tests for validation and to glean deeper insight into the molecular physics taking place. Due to their analytical nature, this polymer chain model and the associated rupture framework can in the future be implemented in finite element models accounting for fracture and fatigue in polydisperse elastomer networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK VI. Noise characterization and modeling

We present a Bayesian method for estimating instrumental noise parameters and propagating noise uncertainties within the global BeyondPlanck Gibbs sampling framework, and apply this to Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) time-ordered data. Following previous literature, we initially adopt a 1/ f model for the noise power spectral density (PSD), but find the need for an additional lognormal component in the noise model for the 30 and 44 GHz bands. We implement an optimal Wiener-filter (or constrained realization) gap-filling procedure to account for masked data. We then use this procedure to both estimate the gapless correlated noise in the time-domain, n corr , and to sample the noise PSD parameters, ξ n = {σ 0 , f knee , α, A p }. In contrast to previous Planck analyses, we assume piecewise stationary noise only within each pointing period (PID), not throughout the full mission, but we adopt the LFI Data Processing Center (DPC) results as priors on α and f knee . On average, we find best-fit correlated noise parameters that are mostly consistent with previous results, with a few notable exceptions. However, a detailed inspection of the time-dependent results reveals many important findings. First and foremost, we find strong evidence for statistically significant temporal variations in all noise PSD parameters, many of which are directly correlated with satellite housekeeping data. Second, while the simple 1/ f model appears to be an excellent fit for the LFI 70 GHz channel, there is evidence for additional correlated noise not described by a 1/ f model in the 30 and 44 GHz channels, including within the primary science frequency range of 0.1–1 Hz. In general, most 30 and 44 GHz channels exhibit deviations from 1/ f at the 2–3σ level in each one hour pointing period, motivating the addition of the lognormal noise component for these bands. For some periods of time, we also find evidence of strong common mode noise fluctuations across the entire focal plane. Overall, we conclude that a simple 1/ f profile is not adequate to fully characterize the Planck LFI noise, even when fitted hour-by-hour, and a more general model is required. These findings have important implications for large-scale CMB polarization reconstruction with the Planck LFI data, and the current work is a first attempt at understanding and mitigating these issues.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lagrangian and Eulerian drag models that are consistent between Euler-Lagrange and Euler-Euler (two-fluid) approaches for homogeneous systems

The undisturbed flow of a particle is of fundamental importance since it controls both the undisturbed flow force and the perturbation force (which includes quasisteady, added-mass, and history forces). Here we use the pairwise interaction extended point particle framework to evaluate the undisturbed flow of each particle through superposition of the perturbation flow induced by all its neighbors. This approach allows calculation of various statistics related to undisturbed fluid velocity under conditions of both stationary and nonstationary particles. In a random distribution of stationary particles, while the macroscale undisturbed flow is slowly varying, the microscale undisturbed flow that arises due to the perturbation flow of neighbors varies substantially from one particle to another and this in turn leads to large variation in the hydrodynamic force exerted on the particles. The effect of particle motion is generally to increase the particle-to-particle variation in the undisturbed fluid velocity of the particles. We observe that this increase is greater for the transverse component than for the streamwise component. As a result, with increasing random particle motion, the distribution of undisturbed fluid-velocity fluctuation becomes isotropic. Three different normalized forces are defined: $Φ^L$ is the Lagrangian normalized force on an individual particle suitable for application in a microscale-informed Euler-Lagrange simulation, $Φ^E$ is the Eulerian normalized average force suitable for application in an Euler-Euler simulation, and $Φ^{LE}$ is the Lagrangian normalized force on an individual particle suitable for application in the standard Euler-Lagrange simulation. In this work, we establish precise relations between these different definitions. The drag laws developed based on particle-resolved direct numerical simulation results and experiments are appropriate for application only as the Eulerian normalized average force. We introduce the force consistency relation and use it to obtain an expression for $Φ^L$, which when applied to each particle and averaged over all the particles equals $Φ^E$. The results are first obtained in the limit of stationary particles and then extended to the general case of nonstationary particles.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Super-CMB fluctuations and the Hubble tension

We study the covariance in the angular power spectrum estimates of CMB fluctuations when the primordial fluctuations are non-Gaussian. The non-Gaussian covariance comes from a nonzero connected four-point correlation function -- or the trispectrum in Fourier space -- and can be large when long-wavelength (super-CMB) modes are strongly coupled to short-wavelength modes. The effect of such non-Gaussian covariance can be modeled through additional freedom in the theoretical CMB angular power spectrum and can lead to different inferred values of the standard cosmological parameters relative to those in ΛCDM. Taking the collapsed limit of the primordial trispectrum in the quasi-single field inflation model as an example, we study how the six standard ΛCDM parameters shift when two additional parameters describing the trispectrum are allowed. The reduced statistical significance of the Hubble tension in the extended model allows us to combine the {\it Planck} temperature data and the type Ia supernovae data from Panstarrs with the distance-ladder measurement of the Hubble constant. Here, this combination of data shows strong evidence for a primordial trispectrum-induced non-Gaussian covariance, with a likelihood improvement of Δχ 2 ≈ –15 (with two additional parameters) relative to ΛCDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological limits on the neutrino mass sum for beyond-Λ⁢ CDM models

The sum of neutrino masses can be measured cosmologically, as the sub-eV particles behave as “hot” dark matter whose main effect is to suppress the clustering of matter compared to a universe with the same amount of purely cold dark matter. Current astronomical data provide an upper limit on ∑𝑚 𝜈 between 0.07–0.12 eV at 95% confidence, depending on the choice of data. This bound assumes that the cosmological model is Λ Cold Dark Matter (Λ⁢ CDM), where dark energy is a cosmological constant, the spatial geometry is flat, and the primordial fluctuations follow a pure power law. Here, we update studies on how the mass limit degrades if we relax these assumptions. To existing data from the Planck satellite we add new gravitational lensing data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, the new Type Ia supernova sample from the Pantheon+survey, and baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. Using our fiducial data combination, described in the appendix, we find the neutrino mass limit is stable to most model extensions, with such extensions degrading the limit by less than 10%. We find a broadest bound of ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.19 eV at 95% confidence for a model with dynamical dark energy, although this scenario is not statistically preferred over the simpler Λ ⁢CDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Constraints on the structure growth from cluster number counts

Recent advancements in methods used in wide-area surveys have demonstrated the reliability of the number density of galaxy clusters as a viable tool for precision cosmology. Beyond testing the current cosmological paradigm, cluster number counts can also be used to investigate the discrepancies currently affecting cosmological measurements. In particular, cosmological studies based on cosmic shear and other large-scale structure probes routinely find a value for the amplitude of the fluctuations in the universe S​ 8 = σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 smaller than the one inferred from the primary cosmic microwave background. In this work, we investigate this tension by measuring structure evolution across cosmic time as probed by the number counts of massive halos with the first SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey cluster catalog in the western Galactic hemisphere, complemented with the overlapping Dark Energy Survey Year-3, Kilo-Degree Survey, and Hyper Suprime-Cam data for weak lensing mass calibration, by implementing two different parameterizations and a model-agnostic method. In the first model, we measured the cosmic linear growth index as γ = 1.19 ± 0.21, which is in tension with the standard value of γ = 0.55 but in good statistical agreement with other large-scale structure probes. The second model is a phenomenological scenario in which we rescale the linear matter power spectrum at low redshift to investigate a potential reduction of structure formation, and it provided similar results. Finally, in a third strategy, we considered a standard ΛCDM cosmology, but we separated the cluster catalog into five redshift bins, measuring the cosmological parameters in each and inferring the evolution of the structure formation, finding hints of a reduction. Interestingly, the S ​8 value inferred from the number counts of the cluster eRASS1 when we add a degree of freedom to the matter power spectrum recovers the value inferred by cosmic shear studies. The observed reduction in the growth rate or systematic uncertainties associated with various measurements may account for the discrepancy in the S 8 ​ values suggested between cosmic shear probes and eROSITA cluster number counts and Planck CMB measurements.

cosmological parameters↗