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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19

Modeling the Dispersibility of Single Walled Carbon Nanotubes in Organic Solvents by Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship Approach

Here, the knowledge of physico-chemical properties of carbon nanotubes, including behavior in organic solvents is very important for design, manufacturing and utilizing of their counterparts with improved properties. In the present study a quantitative structure-activity/property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) approach was applied to predict the dispersibility of single walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) in various organic solvents. A number of additive descriptors and quantum-chemical descriptors were calculated and utilized to build QSAR models. The best predictability is shown by a 4-variable model. The model showed statistically good results ( R 2 training = 0.797, Q 2 = 0.665, R 2 test = 0.807), with high internal and external correlation coefficients. Presence of the X0Av descriptor and its negative term suggest that small size solvents have better SWCNTs solubility. Mass weighted descriptor ATS6m also indicates that heavier solvents (and small in size) most probably are better solvents for SWCNTs. The presence of the Dipole Z descriptor indicates that higher polarizability of the solvent molecule increases the solubility. In conclusion, the developed model and contributed descriptors can help to understand the mechanism of the dispersion process and predictorganic solvents that improve the dispersibility of SWNTs.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Estimating uncertainty: A Bayesian approach to modelling photosynthesis in C3 leaves

The Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry (FvCB) model is extensively used to model pho-tosynthesis from gas exchange measurements. Since its publication, many methods have been developed to measure, or more accurately estimate, parameters of this model. Here, we have created a tool that uses Bayesian statistics to fit photosyn-thetic parameters using concurrent gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence mea-surements whilst evaluating the reliability of the parameter estimation. We have tested this tool on synthetic data and experimental data from rice leaves. Our results indicate that reliable parameter estimation can be achieved whilst only keeping one parameter, Km, that is, Michaelis constant for CO2 by Rubisco, prefixed. Additionally, we show that including detailed low CO2 measurements at low light levels increases reliability and suggests this as a new standard measurement protocol. By providing an estimated distribution of parameter values, the tool can be used to evaluate the quality of data from gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurement proto-cols. Compared to earlier model fitting methods, the use of a Bayesian statistics-based tool minimizes human interaction during fitting, reducing the subjectivity which is essential to most existing tools. A user friendly, interactive Bayesian tool script is provided.

Bayesian statistics, leaf photosynthesis, mesophyl↗

Direct Estimation of Parameters in ODE Models Using WENDy: Weak-Form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics

Abstract We introduce the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method for estimating model parameters for non-linear systems of ODEs. Without relying on any numerical differential equation solvers, WENDy computes accurate estimates and is robust to large (biologically relevant) levels of measurement noise. For low dimensional systems with modest amounts of data, WENDy is competitive with conventional forward solver-based nonlinear least squares methods in terms of speed and accuracy. For both higher dimensional systems and stiff systems, WENDy is typically both faster (often by orders of magnitude) and more accurate than forward solver-based approaches. The core mathematical idea involves an efficient conversion of the strong form representation of a model to its weak form, and then solving a regression problem to perform parameter inference. The core statistical idea rests on the Errors-In-Variables framework, which necessitates the use of the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Further improvements are obtained by using orthonormal test functions, created from a set of $$C^{\infty }$$ C ∞ bump functions of varying support sizes.We demonstrate the high robustness and computational efficiency by applying WENDy to estimate parameters in some common models from population biology, neuroscience, and biochemistry, including logistic growth, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Hindmarsh-Rose, and a Protein Transduction Benchmark model. Software and code for reproducing the examples is available at https://github.com/MathBioCU/WENDy .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Frequency Domain Methodology for Quantitative Evaluation of Diffuse Wavefield With Applications to Seismic Imaging

Abstract Ambient Noise Imaging (ANI) of subsurface structures relies on seismic interferometry of diffuse seismic wavefields. However, the lack of effective methods to quantify and identify highly diffuse waves hampers applications of ANI, particularly in evaluating seismic attenuation and monitoring structural changes with high temporal resolution. Conventional ANI approaches require data normalization, which effectively suppresses the non‐diffuse component with large amplitude but also results in significant loss of amplitude and phase information in the continuous seismic records. In this study, we propose a frequency domain method to quantitatively evaluate the degree of diffuseness of seismic wavefields by analyzing their statistical characteristics of modal amplitudes for stationarity and randomness. Tests on synthetic waveform and field nodal records show that the proposed method can effectively distinguish between diffuse and non‐diffuse waveforms for either single‐ or three‐component data. As an application, we identify a 60‐s‐long diffuse coda of a local M 2.2 earthquake recorded by a dense nodal array on the San Jacinto Fault Zone, and successfully extract high‐quality dispersion curve andQ‐value without performing data normalization. These results are consistent with those obtained by conventional methods that assess the correlation between coherency and the Green's function, and by modeling ballistic waves generated by road traffic. Our proposed method can advance the imaging of subsurface velocity and attenuation structures as well as monitoring temporal changes for scientific studies and engineering applications.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stacked reverberation mapping of high-redshift quasars in DESI. I. Feasibility analysis

The broad-line region of quasars has long been probed by reverberation mapping techniques that measure time lags between continuum and broad emission-line variations. Stacked reverberation mapping has been proposed as a less observationally expensive alternative to traditional methods. This ensemble approach also reduces biases from small-number statistics. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is conducting the most extensive spectroscopic survey of quasars to date. We create mock light curves emulating expected DESI quasar observations at redshifts $1.48\lt z\lt 5.2$ and luminosities $44.68 \le \log \lambda L_{1350 \mathring{\rm A}{}} / \mathrm{erg\, s^{-1}} \le 45.99$ to test stacked reverberation mapping feasibility using sparse spectroscopic data paired with well-sampled photometric data. The pipeline, using the lag estimation code JAVELIN (Just Another Vehicle for Estimating Lags In Nuclei), successfully recovers the simulated C IV lags within 1σ of the true values using spectroscopic light curves composed of only a few spectral epochs (2–10) with irregular cadences. We investigate how observational factors, including C IV flux error magnitude, number of stacked quasars, and spectral epoch count, affect performance. This work motivates a pathway for future stacked reverberation mapping projects with large-scale spectroscopic surveys of quasars having $\ge 2$ spectroscopic observations. Our results suggest an economical alternative for constraining and extending the radius–luminosity relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. Subsequently, this relation can be employed more reliably in single-epoch black hole mass measurements and quasar cosmology in these distant regimes.

quasars: general, quasars: supermassive black hole↗

Grid-based diffusion Monte Carlo for fermions without the fixed-node approximation

A diffusion Monte Carlo algorithm is introduced that can determine the correct nodal structure of the wave function of a few-fermion system and its ground-state energy without an uncontrolled bias. This is achieved by confining signed random walkers to the points of a uniform infinite spatial grid, allowing them to meet and annihilate one another to establish the nodal structure without the fixed-node approximation. An imaginary-time propagator is derived rigorously from a discretized Hamiltonian, governing a non-Gaussian, sign-flipping, branching, and mutually annihilating random walk of particles. The accuracy of the resulting stochastic representations of a fermion wave function is limited only by the grid and imaginary-time resolutions and can be improved in a controlled manner. Here, the method is tested for a series of model problems including fermions in a harmonic trap as well as the He atom in its singlet or triplet ground state. For the latter case, the energies approach from above with increasing grid resolution and converge within 0.015 E h of the exact basis-set-limit value for the grid spacing of 0.08 a.u. with a statistical uncertainty of 10 –5 E h without an importance sampling or Jastrow factor.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Evaluation of a high-throughput method for processing sponge-stick samples to detect viable, non-spore-forming biothreat agents

After a bioterrorism incident, surface sampling is often used to determine the extent of contamination and exposure, guiding decontamination efforts and decisions for re-occupancy of affected sites. The sponge-stick (SS) is a preferred and commonly used device for sample collection to detect both spore-forming and non-spore-forming biothreat agents from non-porous surfaces. Here, in this study, a recently developed high-throughput method (HTM) for processing SS samples to detect viable Bacillus anthracis spores was adapted for detection of non-spore-forming biothreat agents, Yersinia pestis and Francisella tularensis. The scalable HTM was used to process up to 20 SS samples simultaneously, compared to the current stomacher-based method which processes one SS at a time. Comparisons of the HTM and the stomacher-based method were statistically indistinguishable for most experiments (P > 0.05) with HTM recoveries of 37–60 % for Y. pestis inoculated at 102–103 cells/SS and held 48 h at 4 °C to mimic sample transport/storage. The HTM was integrated with Rapid Viability-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RV-PCR) analysis to detect viable Y. pestis in the presence of particulate contamination (Arizona Test Dust, ATD). This approach detected Y. pestis inoculated at 20 cells/SS and ATD did not impact detection (P > 0.05). F. tularensis showed significantly lower recoveries between no-hold time and 48-h hold time (4 °C, P < 0.05) using the HTM, which further testing showed could be due to toxicity of the neutralizing buffer used for SS pre-wetting. With modifications, this method could enhance throughput capacity while maintaining similar recovery efficiencies to current methods for other non-spore-forming bacterial pathogens.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Accelerating quantum optics experiments with statistical learning

Quantum optics experiments, involving the measurement of low-probability photon events, are known to be extremely time-consuming. We present a methodology for accelerating such experiments using physically motivated ansatzes together with simple statistical learning techniques such as Bayesian maximum a posteriori estimation based on few-shot data. We show that it is possible to reconstruct time-dependent data using a small number of detected photons, allowing for fast estimates in under a minute and providing a one-to-two order of magnitude speed-up in data acquisition time. We test our approach using real experimental data to retrieve the second order intensity correlation function, G (2) ($τ$), as a function of time delay τ between detector counts, for thermal light as well as anti-bunched light emitted by a quantum dot driven by periodic laser pulses. The proposed methodology has a wide range of applicability and has the potential to impact the scientific discovery process across a multitude of domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Light potentials of photosynthetic energy storage in the field: what limits the ability to use or dissipate rapidly increased light energy?

The responses of plant photosynthesis to rapid fluctuations in environmental conditions are critical for efficient conversion of light energy. These responses are not well-seen laboratory conditions and are difficult to probe in field environments. We demonstrate an open science approach to this problem that combines multifaceted measurements of photosynthesis and environmental conditions, and an unsupervised statistical clustering approach. In a selected set of data on mint (Mentha sp.), we show that ‘light potentials’ for linear electron flow and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) upon rapid light increases are strongly suppressed in leaves previously exposed to low ambient photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) or low leaf temperatures, factors that can act both independently and cooperatively. Further analyses allowed us to test specific mechanisms. With decreasing leaf temperature or PAR, limitations to photosynthesis during high light fluctuations shifted from rapidly induced NPQ to photosynthetic control of electron flow at the cytochrome b 6 f complex. At low temperatures, high light induced lumen acidification, but did not induce NPQ, leading to accumulation of reduced electron transfer intermediates, probably inducing photodamage, revealing a potential target for improving the efficiency and robustness of photosynthesis. We discuss the implications of the approach for open science efforts to understand and improve crop productivity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative genomics of the Liberibacter genus reveals widespread diversity in genomic content and positive selection history

‘Candidatus Liberibacter’ is a group of bacterial species that are obligate intracellular plant pathogens and cause Huanglongbing disease of citrus trees and Zebra Chip in potatoes. Here, we examined the extent of intra- and interspecific genetic diversity across the genus using comparative genomics. Our approach examined a wide set of Liberibacter genome sequences including five pathogenic species and one species not known to cause disease. By performing comparative genomics analyses, we sought to understand the evolutionary history of this genus and to identify genes or genome regions that may affect pathogenicity. With a set of 52 genomes, we performed comparative genomics, measured genome rearrangement, and completed statistical tests of positive selection. We explored markers of genetic diversity across the genus, such as average nucleotide identity across the whole genome. These analyses revealed the highest intraspecific diversity amongst the ‘Ca. Liberibacter solanacearum’ species, which also has the largest plant host range. We identified sets of core and accessory genes across the genus and within each species and measured the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations (dN/dS) across genes. We identified ten genes with evidence of a history of positive selection in the Liberibacter genus, including genes in the Tad complex, which have been previously implicated as being highly divergent in the ‘Ca. L. capsica’ species based on high values of dN.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Learning-Based Inversion-Free Model-Data Integration to Advance Ecosystem Model Prediction

Ecosystem model prediction is important for understanding ecosystem responses to climate change and for management support. Model prediction and quantification of predictive uncertainty of ecosystems have long been investigated. The traditional workflow, which calibrates models to match observations and then uses the calibrated models for predictions, relies heavily on inverse modeling to constrain uncertain parameters in complex forward models. This inversion-based prediction approach is infeasible for complex models with heterogeneous parameter uncertainties and incapable of rapid integration of streaming and multiple sources of data because of the difficulty and computational cost in the model inversion, which is typically ill-posed and can require hundreds of thousands of expensive forward simulations to be performed iteratively. We propose to circumvent inverse modeling by precomputing an ensemble of unconstrained forward simulations and then using machine learning (ML) methods to learn the statistical relationship between simulated observation and prediction quantities. Once the ML model has learned the relationship, it can be used to make predictions of future system behavior with uncertainty quantification based on observations. The proposed learningbased inversion-free model prediction (LIMP) framework is computationally efficient which only requires a few thousands of fully parallelizable forward simulations. Additionally, LIMP can continually update predictions based on streaming observations from multiple locations and sources without necessarily requiring extra model simulations. In this study, we apply LIMP to a regional terrestrial ecosystem model with 47 parameters for testing, refining, and evaluating the approach. We demonstrate that LIMP can be used for efficient model prediction, rapid data assimilation, and cost-effective experimental design for improving robust predictive understanding of ecosystems.

Lu, Dan↗

Epidemiologic Study of One Million U.S. Radiation Workers and Veterans

The single most important question in radiation epidemiology is determining the level of health risks associated with radiation exposures that occur gradually over time. The study of one million early U.S. radiation workers and veterans has been designed to provide information on risk following chronic exposures by focusing on occupational groups with differing radiation exposure patterns, including intakes of radionuclides. The cost-efficient study builds on the investments made and foundations laid by investigators and government agencies over the past 30-40 years, which have established early worker cohorts that can now provide answers to questions on the lifetime human health risks associated with low-level radiation exposures. Within the overall goal of the epidemiologic study of one million U.S. radiation workers and veterans, this project had a total of nine specific aims which included studies of six populations for multiple endpoints including cancer overall mortality, leukemia and non-cancer mortality. The six populations included: Mound, Ohio, workers exposed to polonium, tritium and plutonium; nuclear power plant workers within the Landauer dosimetry and Nuclear Regulatory Commission data files; industrial radiographers; Mallinckrodt uranium workers; uranium workers who linked with the US Renal Data System; and nuclear weapons test participants. Over 400,000 workers and atomic veterans are included in these populations, with vital status being determined and analyses of all causes of death undertaken. A critical, integral component of the studies has been comprehensive evaluations of dosimetry involving, in many cases, complex dose reconstructions, and assessments of uncertainties. The work has also involved development of state-of-the art statistical approaches and modeling. All nine aims were accomplished successfully, resulting in publication of two NCRP documents, 13 literature papers, numerous Boice Reports in Health Physics News and many presentations of the work at scientific meetings. Furthermore, recommendations have been developed for an approach to integrate epidemiologic observations with radiation biology for risk assessment and biological models of radiation effect. The results of this project, as well as ongoing epidemiology studies of US radiation workers and veterans, are providing much-needed insights into complex issues regarding cancer and non-cancer health risks from low dose irradiation, how to apply a "dose and dose rate effectiveness factor" to scale the risks from the A-bomb survivor data to current occupational and environmental circumstances, and how to evaluate risk following intakes of radioactive substances. In addition to application to radiation workers, the results of the studies can provide guidance as society debates the role of nuclear energy and deals with nuclear waste, threats of terrorist attacks with nuclear/radiological devices, the remarkable increase in medical exposures to CT scans and nuclear imaging, and to NASA as radiation protection for astronauts on long-duration mission beyond low-Earth orbit is planned.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Benchmarking Microscale Ductility Measurements (Final Report of the Project DE-NE0008799)

Conventional macroscale experimentation is generally considered to be straightforward with few limitations. Conversely, micro/nanoscale experimentation presents numerous challenges in loading device design, sample preparation and handling, as well as accurate understanding of grain size and local texture effects on recorded measurements. Despite these challenges, nanopillar compression, MEMs based micro-tension, and nanoindentation approaches have been able to provide fundamental contributions to the understanding of material behavior at small lengthscales. However, the overarching shortcoming of these micro/nanoscale experimentation approaches, is the inability to directly translate measurements evaluated at the nm and µm length scales (e.g., hardness) to macroscale tensile material behavior (i.e., elastic modulus, yield strength, and ductility). The objectives of the proposed study are, 1) to establish best practices for obtaining tensile microscale ductility measurements, and 2) to validate methodologies to for comparing microscale ductility measurements to macroscale ductility measurements. In order to achieve these objectives, a multi-lengthscale, multi-temperature testing protocol and simulation framework are executed first on copper as a model material to validate the following approach, and second on reactor grade Zircaloy-2. Experiments are conducted on specimens extracted from the same test piece to ensure nominally identical grain size and texture from specimens to specimen. Motivated by the need to isolate the contribution of size-effects on obtained mechanical property measurements, specimens are manufactured with thicknesses at the micro- (1-10 µm), meso- (10-100's µm), and macroscales (sub-sized ASTM E8). In-situ full-field deformation techniques (scanning electron microscopy (SEM) grid methods and optical DIC) are incorporated into testing at each specimen length-scale to capture plasticity localization and evolution. Experimental testing for all specimens is conducted at both room temperature and elevated temperatures to probe the role of thermal activation on plastic deformation accommodation processes. Simulation efforts focus on examining the mechanical behavior of microscale specimens using a finite element approach with explicitly resolved grain morphologies, and an embedded crystal plasticity model. The cost-efficient implementation method allows for the modeling of a statistically significant number of both real (i.e., digital twin) and generated microstructures to obtain an understanding of the interrelationships between specimen microstructure and geometric variables (grain size, texture, specimen geometry, etc.) on microscale mechanical behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Can Simple Metrics Identify the Process(es) Driving Extreme Precipitation?

This work seeks an automatic algorithm to determine the primary meteorological cause(s) of individual extreme precipitation events. Such determinations have been made before, but required a by-hand analysis of each separate event. This is very time-consuming and the field would benefit from an automatic process. This is especially relevant when comparing different datasets to determine which ones most closely hew towards reality. This paper tests three simple metrics over the continental United States using the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). The metrics tested measure and compare the strength of three meteorological processes associated with extreme precipitation: fronts, convection, and cyclones. A multivariate statistical technique as well as individual case studies show evidence that the three meteorological processes of interest cannot be isolated from one another using these simple physical metrics. This shows the difficulty in finding “pure” cases of these precipitation-generating processes and suggests approaching these processes with an eye toward mixed-type events.

Swenson, Leif M. (ORCID:0000000199708735)↗

Evaluating the Benefits of Bayesian Hierarchical Methods for Analyzing Heterogeneous Environmental Datasets: A Case Study of Marine Organic Carbon Fluxes

Large compilations of heterogeneous environmental observations are increasingly available as public databases, allowing researchers to test hypotheses across datasets. Statistical complexities arise when analyzing compiled data due to unbalanced spatial sampling, variable environmental context, mixed measurement techniques, and other reasons. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is increasingly used in environmental science to describe these complexities, however few studies explicitly compare the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models to simpler and more commonly applied methods. Here we demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian approach with application to a large compiled environmental dataset consisting of 5,741 marine vertical organic carbon flux observations from 407 sampling locations spanning eight biomes across the global ocean. We fit a global scale Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the vertical profile of organic carbon flux with depth. Profile parameters within a particular biome are assumed to share a common deviation from the global mean profile. Individual station-level parameters are then modeled as deviations from the common biome-level profile. The hierarchical approach is shown to have several benefits over simpler and more common data aggregation methods. First, the hierarchical approach avoids statistical complexities introduced due to unbalanced sampling and allows for flexible incorporation of spatial heterogeneitites in model parameters. Second, the hierarchical approach uses the whole dataset simultaneously to fit the model parameters which shares information across datasets and reduces the uncertainty up to 95% in individual profiles. Third, the Bayesian approach incorporates prior scientific information about model parameters; for example, the non-negativity of chemical concentrations or mass-balance, which we apply here. We explicitly quantify each of these properties in turn. We emphasize the generality of the hierarchical Bayesian approach for diverse environmental applications and its increasing feasibility for large datasets due to recent developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and easy-to-use high-level software implementations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Response Surface Energy Modeling of an Electric Vehicle over a Reduced Composite Drive Cycle

Response surface methodology (RSM) techniques were applied to develop a predictive model of electric vehicle (EV) energy consumption over the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) standardized drive cycles. The model is based on measurements from a synthetic composite drive cycle. The synthetic drive cycle is a minimized statistical composite of the standardized urban (UDDS), highway (HWFET), and US06 cycles. The composite synthetic drive cycle is 20 minutes in length thereby reducing testing time of the three standard EPA cycles by over 55%. Vehicle speed and acceleration were used as model inputs for a third order least squared regression model predicting vehicle battery power output as a function of the drive cycle. The approach reduced three cycles and 46 minutes of drive time to a single test of 20 minutes. Application of response surface modeling to the synthetic drive cycle is shown to predict energy consumption of the three EPA cycles within 2.6% of the actual measured values. Additionally, the response model may be used to predict energy consumption of any cycle within the speed/acceleration envelope of the synthetic cycle. This technique results in reducing test time, which additionally provides a model that may be used to expand the analysis and understanding of the vehicle under consideration.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗