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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

On the state of a solar active region before flares and CMEs

Several attempts have been made to find reliable diagnostic tools to determine the state prior to flares and related coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in solar active regions (ARs). Characterization of the level of mixed states is carried out using the Debrecen sunspot Data for 116 flaring ARs. Conditional flare probabilities (CFPs) are calculated for different flaring classes. The association with slow/fast CMEs is examined. Two precursor parameters are introduced: (i) the sum of the (daily averaged) horizontal magnetic gradient G {sub S} (G {sub DS}) and (ii) the separation parameter S{sub l−f}. We found that if S{sub l−f}⩽1 for a flaring AR then the CFP of the expected highest-intensity flare being X-class is more than 70%. If 1⩽S{sub l−f}⩽3 the CFP is more than 45% for the highest-intensity flare(s) to be M-class, and if 3⩽S{sub l−f}⩽13 there is larger than 60% CFP that C-class flare(s) may have the strongest intensity within 48 hr. Next, from analyzing G {sub S} for determining CFP we found: if 5.5⩽log(G{sub S}) ⩽ 6.5, then it is very likely that C-class flare(s) may be the most intense; if 6.5⩽log(G{sub S})⩽7.5 then there is ∼45% CFP that M-class could have the highest intensity; finally, if 7.5⩽log(G{sub S}) then there is at least 70% chance that the strongest energy release will be X-class in the next 48 hr. ARs are unlikely to produce X-class flare(s) if 13⩽S{sub l−f} and log(G {sub S}) ⩽ 5.5. Finally, in terms of providing an estimate of an associated slow/fast CME, we found that, if log(S{sub l−f}) ⩾ 0.4 or log(G{sub DS}) ⩽ 6.5, there is no accompanying fast CME in the following 24 hr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

The solar activity cycle

This review emphasizes observations of photospheric magnetic flux during cycle 21 (1976-1986) and how these measurements have been used to model the cyclic variability of the heliospheric magnetic field. Indices of solar activity are discussed in terms of their potential to figure in theoretical or empirical models. Other recent data, such as measurements of large-scale surface flows and information on the sun's internal rotation from helioseismology, as well as the magnetic flux observations, are considered in the context of Babcock's phenomenological model of the solar cycle.

Rabin, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Possible relationships between solar activity and atmospheric constituents

The large body of data on solar variations and atmospheric constituents collected between 1902 and 1953 by the Astrophysical Observatory of the Smithsonian Institution (APO) is examined. Short term variations in amounts of atmospheric aerosols and water vapor due to seasonal changes, volcanic activity, air pollution, and frontal activity are discussed. Preliminary evidence indicates that increased solar activity is at times associated with a decrease in attenuation due to airborne particulates.

Roosen, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Possible relationships between solar activity and atmospheric constituents

The large body of data on solar variations and atmospheric constituents collected between 1902 and 1953 by the Astrophysical Observatory of the Smithsonian Institution (APO) was examined. Short-term variations in amounts of atmospheric aerosols and water vapor due to seasonal changes, volcanic activity, air pollution, and frontal activity are discussed. Preliminary evidence indicates that increased solar activity is at times associated with a decrease in attenuation due to airborne particulates.

Roosen, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2014

DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF AN X-SHAPED STRUCTURE ABOVE A TRANS-EQUATORIAL QUADRUPOLE SOLAR ACTIVE REGION GROUP

In the solar corona, magnetic reconnection usually takes place at the singular configuration of the magnetic field, in particular near a magnetic null, owing to its high susceptibility to perturbations. In this Letter, we report a rare X-shaped structure, encompassing a magnetic null, above a trans-equatorial quadrupole active region group that is well observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). The observations show that this X-shaped structure is visible in all AIA EUV passbands and stably exists for days. However, possibly induced by flare activities at the northern part of the quadrupole active region group, the X-shaped structure starts to destabilize while a jet erupts near its center at ∼15:05 UT on 2013 October 7. Through nonlinear force-free field modeling, we identify a magnetic null that is above the quadrupole polarities and well corresponds to the X-shaped structure. After the jet eruption, the temperature and emission measure of the plasma near the X-shaped structure rise from ∼2.3 MK and ∼1.2 × 10{sup 27} cm{sup –5} at 15:01 UT to ∼5.4 MK and ∼3.7 × 10{sup 27} cm{sup –5} at 15:36 UT, respectively, revealed by the differential emission measure analysis, indicating that magnetic reconnection most likely takes place there to heat the plasma. Moreover, the height of the null increases ∼10 Mm, which is most likely due to the partial opening of the field lines near the fan surface that makes the null underneath rise to seek a new equilibrium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1989

Solar activity influence on cosmic ray penetration in the middle atmosphere

A new improved model for cosmic rays-middle atmosphere interaction is developed. The ionization q(h)-profile dependence on penetrating high energy particles composition (protons, alpha-particles and heavier nuclei) and energy spectra (solar activity modulation included) are investigated. A computer program, realizing the Gaussian algorithm for solving of multidimensional integrals is created. The corresponding electron density profiles N(h) at solar minimum and maximum are obtained.

Vellinov, P. I.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Solar activity geomagnetic field and terrestrial weather

Spectral analysis is used as an independent test of the reported association between interplanetary-magnetic-field structure and terrestrial weather. Spectra of the Ap geomagnetic activity index and the vorticity area index for the years from 1964 to 1970 are examined for common features that may be associated with solar-related phenomena, specifically for peaks in the power spectra of both time series with periods near 27.1 days. The spectra are compared in three ways, and the largest peak with the smallest probability estimate is found to occur at a period of 27.49 days. This result is considered to be statistically significant at the 98% level. It is concluded that the period derived from the Ap spectrum is related to solar rotation and that the analysis provides supporting evidence for a connection between the vorticity area index and solar activity.

Knight, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: from Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-­‐organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-­fold approach: 1) рealistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-­‐resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-­‐scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Magneti↗
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar↗
NASA NTRS1975

Observation of possible Fe XVII 2p5 3p/1S0/ - 2p5 3s/1P1, 3P1/ transitions in spectra of a solar active region and flare

Expected wavelengths and relative intensities are obtained from previous calculations for the hitherto unobserved transitions 2p5 3p(1SO) - 2p5 3s(1P1, 3P1) in Fe XVII. A candidate pair of lines at 197.05 A and 242.09 A was found in laboratory spectra and appears to be present in the spectra of a solar active region observed by the OSO-7 Goddard spectroheliograph as well as in the spectrum of a Skylab-observed solar flare.

Kastner, S. O.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of magnesium XI line profiles from solar active regions

High-resolution solar spectra of the Mg XI 1s2 1S0-1s2p 1P1 resonance line at 9.169 A and the associated nearby satellite lines obtained from two rocket-borne crystal spectrometer measurements are presented. Comparisons with two independent sets of theoretical calculations for the 1s2nl-1s2pnl dielectronic satellite lines with n = 3-7 indicate electron temperatures of 4-4.5 million K. Measured line widths indicate either that the ion temperature exceeds the electron temperature by about a million K or that about 28 km/s of turbulence is present.

Blake, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Representing Solar Active Regions with Triangulations

The solar chromosphere consists of three classes which contribute differently to ultraviolet radiation reaching the earth. We describe a data set of solar images, means of segmenting the images into the constituent classes, and novel high-level representation for compact objects based on a triangulation spatial 'membership function'.

Triangulation chromosphere Markov chain Monte Carl↗
NASA NTRS1982

Doppler wavelength shifts of ultraviolet spectral lines in solar active regions

Doppler shifts are measured for solar UV emission lines formed in the lower transition region of active regions. Doppler shifts in different regions at the same solar location, variations of Doppler shift with position of an active region on the disk, and variations of Doppler shift with time at the same solar location in the same active region were studied. Observations were made with the NRL slit spectrograph on Skylab. Excluding flare and flare-related phenomena, only redshifts are found whose magnitudes correspond to downflow velocities between about 4 and 17 km/s. Shifts are largest for lines formed between about 50,000 and 100,000 K, and are distinctly less for lines formed above 100,000 K. The shifts persist out to the limb, but not above it. There is no obvious change in redshift for lines measured at the same solar location over time intervals of about 20 minutes.

Feldman, U.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Global ozone long-term trends from satellite measurements and the response to solar activity variations

Analysis of global ozone variations for the period April 1970 to December 1975 was performed by using the reprocessed Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measurements of total ozone. A correlation coefficient of 0.97 is found between the 6-month running mean of global mean total ozone (filtered for mean semiannual, annual, and quasibiennial variations) and the 10.7-cm solar activity index. Correcting ozone for a time-dependent latitudinal bias relative to Dobson ozone measurements reduces to 2-3% the global mean ozone variation over the solar cycle. The solar ultraviolet variability required in a one-dimensional time-dependent radiative photochemical model to account for the observed ozone variation appears to be consistent with recent solar UV observations.

Keating, G. M.↗