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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Stability Metrics for Simulation and Flight-Software Assessment and Monitoring of Adaptive Control Assist Compensators

Due to a need for improved reliability and performance in aerospace systems, there is increased interest in the use of adaptive control or other nonlinear, time-varying control designs in aerospace vehicles. While such techniques are built on Lyapunov stability theory, they lack an accompanying set of metrics for the assessment of stability margins such as the classical gain and phase margins used in linear time-invariant systems. Such metrics must both be physically meaningful and permit the user to draw conclusions in a straightforward fashion. We present in this paper a roadmap to the development of metrics appropriate to nonlinear, time-varying systems. We also present two case studies in which frozen-time gain and phase margins incorrectly predict stability or instability. We then present a multi-resolution analysis approach that permits on-line real-time stability assessment of nonlinear systems.

Hodel, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Sense and Avoid Characterization of the Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operations of Unmanned Systems

Abstract—Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operations of Unmanned Systems (ICAROUS) is a distributed software architecture developed by NASA Langley Research Center to enable safe autonomous UAS operations. ICAROUS consists of a collection formally verified core algorithms for path planning, traffic avoidance, geofence handling, and decision making that interface with an autopilot system through a publisher-subscriber middleware. The ICAROUS Sense and Avoid Characterization (ISAAC) test was designed to evaluate the performance of the onboard Sense and Avoid (SAA) capability to detect potential conflicts with other aircraft and autonomously maneuver to avoid collisions, while remaining within the airspace boundaries of the mission. The ISAAC tests evaluated the impact of separation distances and alerting times on SAA performance. A preliminary analysis of the effects of each parameter on key measures of performance is conducted, informing the choice of appropriate parameter values for different small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) applications. Furthermore, low-power Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) is evaluated for potential use to enable autonomous sUAS to sUAS deconflictions as well as to provide usable warnings for manned aircraft without saturating the frequency spectrum.

Consiglio, Maria↗
NASA NTRS1990

An overview of the current state of the art optimization used for trajectory design in the GTS system

The high cost of delivering payloads to orbit demands that launch vehicles be flown in an optimal and reliable manner. Thus, computer simulated trajectories are optimized to obtain maximum vehicle payload capability or a maximum amount of reserve fuel, subject to design constraints. The Generalized Trajectory Simulation (GTS) system developed at The Aerospace Corporation is capable of simulating and optimizing trajectories for a wide variety of boost and reentry problems. Optimization is an integral part of the GTS system. This has resulted in progressive use of optimization. Additionally, the flexibility of the GTS system allows optimum trade studies to be conducted and complicated missions to be designed. This paper describes the integrated and flexible nature of the optimization software in the GTS system. Special features of the NLP2 and NLP3 optimization codes are described. Post optimality, parameter sensitivity analysis and the automatic scaling capability in the GTS system are also described.

Beltracchi, Todd J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis by NASA's VESGEN Software of Vascular Branching in the Human Retina with a Ground-Based Microgravity Analog

Significant risks for visual impairment were discovered recently in astronauts following spaceflight, especially after long-duration missions.1 We hypothesize that microgravity-induced fluid shifts result in pathological changes within the retinal vasculature that precede visual and other ocular impairments. We therefore are analyzing retinal vessels in healthy subjects with NASA's VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software2 before and after head-down tilt (HDT), a ground-based microgravity analog For our preliminary study of masked images, two groups of venous trees with and without small veins (G≥7) were clearly identified by VESGEN analysis. Upon completing all images and unmasking the subject status of pre- and post- HDT, we will determine whether differences in the presence or absence of small veins are important correlates, and perhaps reliable predictors, of other ocular and physiological adaptations to prolonged HDT and microgravity. Greater peripapillary retinal thickening was measured following 70-day HDT bed rest than 14-day HDT bed rest, suggesting that time of HDT may increase the amount of optic disc swelling.3 Spectralis OCT detected retinal nerve fiber layer thickening post HDT, without clinical signs of optic disc edema. Such changes may have resulted from HDT-induced cephalad fluid shifts. Clinical methods for examining adaptive microvascular remodeling in the retina to microgravity space flight are currently not established.

Retina↗
NASA NTRS1990

Multiversion software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

In this project we have proposed to investigate a number of experimental and theoretical issues associated with the practical use of multi-version software in providing dependable software through fault-avoidance and fault-elimination, as well as run-time tolerance of software faults. In the period reported here we have working on the following: We have continued collection of data on the relationships between software faults and reliability, and the coverage provided by the testing process as measured by different metrics (including data flow metrics). We continued work on software reliability estimation methods based on non-random sampling, and the relationship between software reliability and code coverage provided through testing. We have continued studying back-to-back testing as an efficient mechanism for removal of uncorrelated faults, and common-cause faults of variable span. We have also been studying back-to-back testing as a tool for improvement of the software change process, including regression testing. We continued investigating existing, and worked on formulation of new fault-tolerance models. In particular, we have partly finished evaluation of Consensus Voting in the presence of correlated failures, and are in the process of finishing evaluation of Consensus Recovery Block (CRB) under failure correlation. We find both approaches far superior to commonly employed fixed agreement number voting (usually majority voting). We have also finished a cost analysis of the CRB approach.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Investigation of a Verification and Validation Tool with a Turbofan Aircraft Engine Application

The development of more advanced control architectures for turbofan aircraft engines can yield gains in performance and efficiency over the lifetime of an engine. However, the implementation of these increasingly complex controllers is contingent on their ability to provide safe, reliable engine operation. Therefore, having the means to verify the safety of new control algorithms is crucial. As a step towards this goal, CoCoSim, a publicly available verification tool for Simulink, is used to analyze C-MAPSS40k, a 40,000 lbf class turbo-fan engine model developed at NASA for testing new control algorithms. Due to current limitations of the verification software, several modifications are made to C-MAPSS40k to achieve compatibility with CoCoSim. Some of these modifications sacrifice fidelity to the original model. Several safety and performance requirements typical for turbofan engines are identified and constructed into a verification framework. Preliminary results using an industry standard baseline controller for these requirements are presented. While verification capabilities are demonstrated, a truly comprehensive analysis will require further development of the verification tool.

V&↗
NASA NTRS2019

Airborne Radar for sUAS Sense and Avoid

A primary challenge for the safe integration of small UAS operations into the National Airspace System (NAS) is traffic deconfliction, both from manned and unmanned aircraft. The UAS Traffic Management (UTM) project being conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) considers a layered approach to separation provision, ranging from segregation of operations through airspace volumes (geofences) to autonomous sense and avoid (SAA) technologies for higher risk, densely occupied airspace. Cooperative SAA systems, such as Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) and/or vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems provide significant additional risk mitigation but they fail to adequately mitigate collision risks for non-cooperative (non-transponder equipped) airborne aircraft. The RAAVIN (Radar on Autonomous Aircraft to Verify ICAROUS Navigation) flight test being conducted by NASA and the Mid-Atlantic Aviation Partnership (MAAP) was designed to investigate the applicability and performance of a prototype, commercially available sUAS radar to detect and track non-cooperative airborne traffic, both manned and unmanned. The radar selected for this research was a Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) radar with 120 degree azimuth and 80 degree elevation field of view operating at 24.55GHz center frequency with a 200 MHz bandwidth. The radar transmits 2 watts of power thru a Metamaterial Electronically Scanning Array antenna in horizontal polarization. When the radar is transmitting, personnel must be at least 1 meter away from the active array to limit nonionizing radiation exposure. The radar physical dimensions are 18.7cm by 12.1cm by 4.1cm and it weighs less than 820 grams making it well suited for installation on small UASs. The onboard, SAA capability, known as ICAROUS, (Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operations of Unmanned Systems), developed by NASA to support sUAS operations, will provide autonomous guidance using the traffic radar tracks from the onboard radar. The RAAVIN set of studies will be conducted in three phases. The first phase included outdoor, ground-based radar evaluations performed at the Virginia Tech’s Kentland Farm testing range in Blacksburg, VA. The test was designed to measure how well the radar could detect and track a small UAS flying in the radar’s field of view. The radar was used to monitor 5 test flights consisting of outbound, inbound and crossing routes at different ranges and altitudes. The UAS flown during the ground test was the Inspire 2, a quad copter weighing less than 4250 grams (10 pounds) at maximum payload. The radar was set up to scan and track targets over its full azimuthal field of view from 0 to 40 degrees in elevation. The radar was configured to eliminate tracks generated from any targets located beyond 2000 meters from the radar and moving at velocities under 1.45 meters per second. For subsequent phases of the study the radar will be integrated with a sUAS platform to evaluate its performance in flight for SAA applications ranging from sUAS to manned GA aircraft detections and tracking. Preliminary data analysis from the first outdoor ground tests showed the radar performed well at tracking the vehicle as it flew outbound and repeatedly maintained a track out to 1000 meters (maximum 1387 meters) until the vehicle slowed to a stop to reverse direction to fly inbound. As the Inspire flew inbound tracks from beyond 800 meters, a reacquisition time delay was consistently observed between when the Inspire exceeds a speed of 1.45 meters per second and when the radar indicated an inbound target was present and maintained its track. The time delay varied between 6 seconds to over 37 seconds for the inbound flights examined, and typically resulted in about a 200 meter closure distance before the Inspire track was maintained. The radar performed well at both acquiring and tracking the vehicle as it flew crossing routes out past 400 meters across the azimuthal field of view. The radar and ICAROUS software will be integrated and flown on a BFD-1400-SE8-E UAS during the next phase of the RAAVIN project. The main goal at the conclusion of this effort is to determine if this radar technology can reliably support minimum requirements for SAA applications of sUAS. In particular, the study will measure the range of vehicle detections, lateral and vertical angular errors, false and missed/late detections, and estimated distance at closest point of approach after an avoidance maneuver is executed. This last metric is directly impacted by sensor performance and indicates its suitability for the task.

Szatkowski, George N.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Life cycle cost modeling of conceptual space vehicles

This paper documents progress to date by the University of Dayton on the development of a life cycle cost model for use during the conceptual design of new launch vehicles and spacecraft. This research is being conducted under NASA Research Grant NAG-1-1327. This research effort changes the focus from that of the first two years in which a reliability and maintainability model was developed to the initial development of a life cycle cost model. Cost categories are initially patterned after NASA's three axis work breakdown structure consisting of a configuration axis (vehicle), a function axis, and a cost axis. The focus will be on operations and maintenance costs and other recurring costs. Secondary tasks performed concurrent with the development of the life cycle costing model include continual support and upgrade of the R&M model. The primary result of the completed research will be a methodology and a computer implementation of the methodology to provide for timely cost analysis in support of the conceptual design activities. The major objectives of this research are: to obtain and to develop improved methods for estimating manpower, spares, software and hardware costs, facilities costs, and other cost categories as identified by NASA personnel; to construct a life cycle cost model of a space transportation system for budget exercises and performance-cost trade-off analysis during the conceptual and development stages; to continue to support modifications and enhancements to the R&M model; and to continue to assist in the development of a simulation model to provide an integrated view of the operations and support of the proposed system.

Ebeling, Charles↗
NASA NTRS1993

Quantitative assessment of human motion using video motion analysis

In the study of the dynamics and kinematics of the human body a wide variety of technologies has been developed. Photogrammetric techniques are well documented and are known to provide reliable positional data from recorded images. Often these techniques are used in conjunction with cinematography and videography for analysis of planar motion, and to a lesser degree three-dimensional motion. Cinematography has been the most widely used medium for movement analysis. Excessive operating costs and the lag time required for film development, coupled with recent advances in video technology, have allowed video based motion analysis systems to emerge as a cost effective method of collecting and analyzing human movement. The Anthropometric and Biomechanics Lab at Johnson Space Center utilizes the video based Ariel Performance Analysis System (APAS) to develop data on shirtsleeved and space-suited human performance in order to plan efficient on-orbit intravehicular and extravehicular activities. APAS is a fully integrated system of hardware and software for biomechanics and the analysis of human performance and generalized motion measurement. Major components of the complete system include the video system, the AT compatible computer, and the proprietary software.

Probe, John D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Composing, Analyzing and Validating Software Models

This research has been conducted at the Computational Sciences Division of the Information Sciences Directorate at Ames Research Center (Automated Software Engineering Grp). The principle work this summer has been to review and refine the agenda that were carried forward from last summer. Formal specifications provide good support for designing a functionally correct system, however they are weak at incorporating non-functional performance requirements (like reliability). Techniques which utilize stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) are good for evaluating the performance and reliability for a system, but they may be too abstract and cumbersome from the stand point of specifying and evaluating functional behavior. Therefore, one major objective of this research is to provide an integrated approach to assist the user in specifying both functionality (qualitative: mutual exclusion and synchronization) and performance requirements (quantitative: reliability and execution deadlines). In this way, the merits of a powerful modeling technique for performability analysis (using SPNs) can be combined with a well-defined formal specification language. In doing so, we can come closer to providing a formal approach to designing a functionally correct system that meets reliability and performance goals.

Sheldon, Frederick T.↗
NASA NTRS1981

NASA V/STOL Propulsion Control Analysis - Phase I and II program status

NASA-Lewis Research Center initiated the V/STOL Propulsion Control Analysis Program in 1979 in order to take advantage of advanced electronic control technology for the next generation of V/STOL aircraft. The rationale, methods, and criteria developed during Phase I and Phase II of the program are discussed first. The development of an integrated flight and propulsion control system is then described. Most V/STOL aircraft under consideration depend on reaction thrusters or separate lift engines for attitude control and on engine thrust variations for height control. S/CTOL aircraft vector-thrust for pitch control during low speed operation. The baseline propulsion control system provides a thrust level response of 10 rad/sec and a vectoring response of 22 rad/sec. The requirements of the control components include: (1) redundant electronic control computers with minimum software and 100% Fault Coverage; (2) prime reliable electromechanical actuator interfaces; (3) miniature, digitally compatible sensors with easily detected failure modes; and (4) dual element, fail operational fuel pumps.

Miller, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

26th Space Simulation Conference Proceedings. Environmental Testing: The Path Forward

Topics covered include: A Multifunctional Space Environment Simulation Facility for Accelerated Spacecraft Materials Testing; Exposure of Spacecraft Surface Coatings in a Simulated GEO Radiation Environment; Gravity-Offloading System for Large-Displacement Ground Testing of Spacecraft Mechanisms; Microscopic Shutters Controlled by cRIO in Sounding Rocket; Application of a Physics-Based Stabilization Criterion to Flight System Thermal Testing; Upgrade of a Thermal Vacuum Chamber for 20 Kelvin Operations; A New Approach to Improve the Uniformity of Solar Simulator; A Perfect Space Simulation Storm; A Planetary Environmental Simulator/Test Facility; Collimation Mirror Segment Refurbishment inside ESA s Large Space; Space Simulation of the CBERS 3 and 4 Satellite Thermal Model in the New Brazilian 6x8m Thermal Vacuum Chamber; The Certification of Environmental Chambers for Testing Flight Hardware; Space Systems Environmental Test Facility Database (SSETFD), Website Development Status; Wallops Flight Facility: Current and Future Test Capabilities for Suborbital and Orbital Projects; Force Limited Vibration Testing of JWST NIRSpec Instrument Using Strain Gages; Investigation of Acoustic Field Uniformity in Direct Field Acoustic Testing; Recent Developments in Direct Field Acoustic Testing; Assembly, Integration and Test Centre in Malaysia: Integration between Building Construction Works and Equipment Installation; Complex Ground Support Equipment for Satellite Thermal Vacuum Test; Effect of Charging Electron Exposure on 1064nm Transmission through Bare Sapphire Optics and SiO2 over HfO2 AR-Coated Sapphire Optics; Environmental Testing Activities and Capabilities for Turkish Space Industry; Integrated Circuit Reliability Simulation in Space Environments; Micrometeoroid Impacts and Optical Scatter in Space Environment; Overcoming Unintended Consequences of Ambient Pressure Thermal Cycling Environmental Tests; Performance and Functionality Improvements to Next Generation Thermal Vacuum Control System; Robotic Lunar Lander Development Project: Three-Dimensional Dynamic Stability Testing and Analysis; Thermal Physical Properties of Thermal Coatings for Spacecraft in Wide Range of Environmental Conditions: Experimental and Theoretical Study; Molecular Contamination Generated in Thermal Vacuum Chambers; Preventing Cross Contamination of Hardware in Thermal Vacuum Chambers; Towards Validation of Particulate Transport Code; Updated Trends in Materials' Outgassing Technology; Electrical Power and Data Acquisition Setup for the CBER 3 and 4 Satellite TBT; Method of Obtaining High Resolution Intrinsic Wire Boom Damping Parameters for Multi-Body Dynamics Simulations; and Thermal Vacuum Testing with Scalable Software Developed In-House.

Packard, Edward A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA Taxonomies for Searching Problem Reports and FMEAs

Many types of hazard and risk analyses are used during the life cycle of complex systems, including Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis, Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Reliability Analysis and analysis of Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) databases. The success of these methods depends on the availability of input data and the analysts knowledge. Standard nomenclature can increase the reusability of hazard, risk and problem data. When nomenclature in the source texts is not standard, taxonomies with mapping words (sets of rough synonyms) can be combined with semantic search to identify items and tag them with metadata based on a rich standard nomenclature. Semantic search uses word meanings in the context of parsed phrases to find matches. The NASA taxonomies provide the word meanings. Spacecraft taxonomies and ontologies (generalization hierarchies with attributes and relationships, based on terms meanings) are being developed for types of subsystems, functions, entities, hazards and failures. The ontologies are broad and general, covering hardware, software and human systems. Semantic search of Space Station texts was used to validate and extend the taxonomies. The taxonomies have also been used to extract system connectivity (interaction) models and functions from requirements text. Now the Reconciler semantic search tool and the taxonomies are being applied to improve search in the Space Shuttle PRACA database, to discover recurring patterns of failure. Usual methods of string search and keyword search fall short because the entries are terse and have numerous shortcuts (irregular abbreviations, nonstandard acronyms, cryptic codes) and modifier words cannot be used in sentence context to refine the search. The limited and fixed FMEA categories associated with the entries do not make the fine distinctions needed in the search. The approach assigns PRACA report titles to problem classes in the taxonomy. Each ontology class includes mapping words - near-synonyms naming different manifestations of that problem class. The mapping words for Problems, Entities and Functions are converted to a canonical form plus any of a small set of modifier words (e.g. non-uniformity NOT + UNIFORM.) The report titles are parsed as sentences if possible, or treated as a flat sequence of word tokens if parsing fails. When canonical forms in the title match mapping words, the PRACA entry is associated with the corresponding Problem, Entity or Function in the ontology. The user can search for types of failures associated with types of equipment, clustering by type of problem (e.g., all bearings found with problems of being uneven: rough, irregular, gritty ). The results could also be used for tagging PRACA report entries with rich metadata. This approach could also be applied to searching and tagging failure modes, failure effects and mitigations in FMEAs. In the pilot work, parsing 52K+ truncated titles (the test cases that were available), has resulted in identification of both a type of equipment and type of problem in about 75% of the cases. The results are displayed in a manner analogous to Google search results. The effort has also led to the enrichment of the taxonomy, adding some new categories and many new mapping words. Further work would make enhancements that have been identified for improving the clustering and further reducing the false alarm rate. (In searching for recurring problems, good clustering is more important than reducing false alarms). Searching complete PRACA reports should lead to immediate improvement.

Malin, Jane T.↗
NASA NTRS1990

QUEST/Ada (Query Utility Environment for Software Testing of Ada): The development of a prgram analysis environment for Ada, task 1, phase 2

The results of research and development efforts are described for Task one, Phase two of a general project entitled The Development of a Program Analysis Environment for Ada. The scope of this task includes the design and development of a prototype system for testing Ada software modules at the unit level. The system is called Query Utility Environment for Software Testing of Ada (QUEST/Ada). The prototype for condition coverage provides a platform that implements expert system interaction with program testing. The expert system can modify data in the instrument source code in order to achieve coverage goals. Given this initial prototype, it is possible to evaluate the rule base in order to develop improved rules for test case generation. The goals of Phase two are the following: (1) to continue to develop and improve the current user interface to support the other goals of this research effort (i.e., those related to improved testing efficiency and increased code reliable); (2) to develop and empirically evaluate a succession of alternative rule bases for the test case generator such that the expert system achieves coverage in a more efficient manner; and (3) to extend the concepts of the current test environment to address the issues of Ada concurrency.

Brown, David B.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Comparison of Solar p-Mode Parameters from MDI and Gong: Mode Frequencies and Structure Inversions

Helioseismic analysis of solar global oscillations allows investigation of the internal structure of the Sun. One important test of the reliability of the inferences from helioseismology is that the results from independent sets of contemporaneous data are consistent with one another. Here we compare mode frequencies from the Global Oscillation Network Group and Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO and resulting inversion results on the Sun's internal structure. The average relative differences between the data sets are typically less than 1 x 10(exp -5) substantially smaller than the formal errors in the differences; however, in some cases the frequency differences show a systematic behavior that might nonetheless influence the inversion results. We find that the differences in frequencies are not a result of instrumental effects but are almost entirely related to the data pipeline software. Inversion of the frequencies shows that their differences do not result in any significant effects on the resulting inferences on solar structure. We have also experimented with fitting asymmetric profiles to the oscillation power spectra and find that, compared with the symmetric fits, this causes no significant change in the inversion results.

Basu, S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

Fox, George↗
NASA NTRS1996

Integrated Design Software Predicts the Creep Life of Monolithic Ceramic Components

Significant improvements in propulsion and power generation for the next century will require revolutionary advances in high-temperature materials and structural design. Advanced ceramics are candidate materials for these elevated-temperature applications. As design protocols emerge for these material systems, designers must be aware of several innate features, including the degrading ability of ceramics to carry sustained load. Usually, time-dependent failure in ceramics occurs because of two different, delayedfailure mechanisms: slow crack growth and creep rupture. Slow crack growth initiates at a preexisting flaw and continues until a critical crack length is reached, causing catastrophic failure. Creep rupture, on the other hand, occurs because of bulk damage in the material: void nucleation and coalescence that eventually leads to macrocracks which then propagate to failure. Successful application of advanced ceramics depends on proper characterization of material behavior and the use of an appropriate design methodology. The life of a ceramic component can be predicted with the NASA Lewis Research Center's Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) integrated design programs. CARES/CREEP determines the expected life of a component under creep conditions, and CARES/LIFE predicts the component life due to fast fracture and subcritical crack growth. The previously developed CARES/LIFE program has been used in numerous industrial and Government applications.

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