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At least 343 records · Page 19

A Multi-Wavelength Thermal Infrared and Reflectance Scene Simulation Model

Several theoretical calculations are presented and our approach discussed for simulating overall composite scene thermal infrared exitance and canopy bidirectional reflectance of a forest canopy. Calculations are performed for selected wavelength bands of the DOE Multispectral Thermal Imagery and comparisons with atmospherically corrected MTI imagery are underway. NASA EO-1 Hyperion observations also are available and the favorable comparison of our reflective model results with these data are reported elsewhere.

Ballard, J. R., Jr.↗

Evaluating seasonal and regional distribution of snowfall in regional climate model simulations in the Arctic

In this study, we investigate how the regional climate model HIRHAM5 reproduces the spatial and temporal distribution of Arctic snowfall when compared to CloudSat satellite observations during the examined period of 2007–2010. For this purpose, both approaches, i.e., the assessments of the surface snowfall rate (observation-to-model) and the radar reflectivity factor profiles (model-to-observation), are carried out considering spatial and temporal sampling differences. The HIRHAM5 model, which is constrained in its synoptic representation by nudging to ERA-Interim, represents the snowfall in the Arctic region well in comparison to CloudSat products. The spatial distribution of the snowfall patterns is similar in both identifying the southeastern coast of Greenland and the North Atlantic corridor as regions gaining more than twice as much snowfall as the Arctic average, defined here for latitudes between 66 and 81°N. Excellent agreement (difference less than 1%) in the Arctic-averaged annual snowfall rate between HIRHAM5 and CloudSat is found, whereas ERA-Interim reanalysis shows an underestimation of 45% and significant deficits in the representation of the snowfall rate distribution. From the spatial analysis, it can be seen that the largest differences in the mean annual snowfall rates are an overestimation near the coastlines of Greenland and other regions with large orographic variations as well as an underestimation in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. To a large extent, the differences can be explained by clutter contamination, blind zone or higher resolution of CloudSat measurements, but clearly HIRHAM5 overestimates the orographic-driven precipitation. The underestimation of HIRHAM5 within the North Atlantic corridor south of Svalbard is likely connected to a poor description of the marine cold air outbreaks which could be identified by separating snowfall into different circulation weather type regimes. By simulating the radar reflectivity factor profiles from HIRHAM5 utilizing the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer (PAMTRA) forward-modeling operator, the contribution of individual hydrometeor types can be assessed. Looking at a latitude band at 72–73°N, snow can be identified as the hydrometeor type dominating radar reflectivity factor values across all seasons. The largest differences between the observed and simulated reflectivity factor values are related to the contribution of cloud ice particles, which is underestimated in the model, most likely due to the small sizes of the particles. The model-to-observation approach offers a promising diagnostic when improving cloud schemes, as illustrated by comparison of different schemes available for HIRHAM5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Base pressure and heat transfer tests of the 0.0225-scale space shuttle plume simulation model (19-OTS) in yawed flight conditions in the NASA-Lewis 10x10-foot supersonic wind tunnel (test IH83)

Wind tunnel tests were performed to determine pressures, heat transfer rates, and gas recovery temperatures in the base region of a rocket firing model of the space shuttle integrated vehicle during simulated yawed flight conditions. First and second stage flight of the space shuttle were simulated by firing the main engines in conjunction with the SRB rocket motors or only the SSME's into the continuous tunnel airstream. For the correct rocket plume environment, the simulated altitude pressures were halved to maintain the rocket chamber/altitude pressure ratio. Tunnel freestream Mach numbers from 2.2 to 3.5 were simulated over an altitude range of 60 to 130 thousand feet with varying angle of attack, yaw angle, nozzle gimbal angle and SRB chamber pressure. Gas recovery temperature data derived from nine gas temperature probe runs are presented. The model configuration, instrumentation, test procedures, and data reduction are described.

Foust, J. W.↗

A Statistical Comparison of PSC Model Simulations and POAM Observations

A better knowledge of PSC composition and formation mechanisms is important to better understand and predict stratospheric ozone depletion. Several past studies have attempted to compare modeling results with satellite observations. These comparisons have concentrated on case studies. In this paper we adopt a statistical approach. POAM PSC observations from several Arctic winters are categorized into Type Ia and Ib PSCs using a technique based on Strawa et al. The discrimination technique has been modified to employ the wavelengths dependence of the extinction signal at all wavelengths rather than only at 603 and 10 18 nm. Winter-long simulations for the 1999-2000 Arctic winter have been made using the IMPACT model. These simulations have been constrained by aircraft observations made during the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 campaign. A complete set of winter-long simulations was run for several different microphysical and PSC formation scenarios. The simulations give us perfect knowledge of PSC type (Ia, Ib, or II), composition, especially condensed phase HNO3 which is important for denitrification, and condensed phase H2O. Comparisons are made between the simulation and observation of PSC extinction at 1018 rim versus wavelength dependence, winter-long percentages of Ia and Ib occurrence, and temporal and altitude trends of the PSCs. These comparisons allow us to comment on how realistic some modeling scenarios are.

Strawa, A. W.↗

Model Simulations of Ozone in the Summer Lower Stratosphere

The Goddard 3D chemistry and transport model (CTM) uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS); thus CTM simulations can be compared directly with observations from satellite, balloon and aircraft. In general, aspects of these comparisons show remarkable agreement between observation and model. One significant difference is that the model ozone is high biased below the ozone peak. The bias is apparently largest at high latitudes during the summer months. At the same time, comparisons with HALOE observations show that at mid to high latitudes, the ozone mixing ratio peak appears persistently at a lower altitude than observed by HALOE; the peak mixing ratio is also overestimated by the model. Both transport and photochemistry are possible contributors to the biased ozone in the lower stratosphere - excessive downward motion would increase lower stratospheric ozone, as would a too large vertical gradient in ozone. On the other hand, comparisons of model N2O and NOy with observations suggest transport deficiencies in the opposite sense, i.e., model N2O can be high relative to observations (particularly during winter), suggesting the need for stronger downward transport. Sensitivity studies have been carried out using parameterizations for ozone production and loss, NOy production and loss, and N2O loss. The goal of these studies is to clarify how problems in the photochemical scheme at and above the ozone peak influence the lower stratospheric ozone.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Simulations With High Vertical Resolution in the Lower Troposphere

Abstract General circulation models (GCMs) are typically run with coarse vertical resolution. For example, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) has a vertical resolution of about 200 m in the boundary layer, which is far too coarse to resolve sharp gradients often found in the thermodynamic fields capping subtropical marine stratocumulus. In this article, we present a series of multiyear atmosphere only simulations of E3SM version 1 where we progressively increase the vertical resolution in the lower troposphere to scales approaching those often used in large eddy simulation (LES). We report marginal impacts in regards to the simulation of boundary layer clouds when vertical resolution is moderately increased, yet find significant positive impacts when the vertical resolution approaches that typically used in LES (∼10 m). In these experiments, there is a marked change in the simulated turbulence and thermodynamics which leads to more abundant marine stratocumulus. However, these simulations are burdened with excessive computational cost. They are also subject to degradations in overall climate metrics due to time step sensitivities and because some processes and parameterizations are sensitive to changes in the vertical resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of simulation modeling and satellite techniques for monitoring ecological processes

In 1985 improvements were made in the world climatic data base for modeling and predictive mapping; in individual process models and the overall carbon-balance models; and in the interface software for mapping the simulation results. Statistical analysis of the data base was begun. In 1986 mapping was shifted to NASA-Goddard. The initial approach involving pattern comparisons was modified to a more statistical approach. A major accomplishment was the expansion and improvement of a global data base of measurements of biomass and primary production, to complement the simulation data. The main accomplishments during 1987 included: production of a master tape with all environmental and satellite data and model results for the 1600 sites; development of a complete mapping system used for the initial color maps comparing annual and monthly patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), actual evapotranspiration, net primary productivity, gross primary productivity, and net ecosystem production; collection of more biosphere measurements for eventual improvement of the biological models; and development of some initial monthly models for primary productivity, based on satellite data.

Box, Elgene O.↗

Evaluating E3SM Global Storm‐Resolving Model Simulations of Deep Convection: Insights From DP‐SCREAM During TRACER

Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) are becoming increasingly vital for advancing climate modeling and improving the prediction of extreme weather events. Houston, a coastal region frequently affected by deep convective storms, offers an ideal setting to evaluate the ability of GSRMs to simulate deep convection. This study assesses the performance of the Doubly Periodic Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) Atmosphere Model (DP-SCREAM) using observations from the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. DP-SCREAM effectively reproduces the diurnal cycles of clouds and precipitation, demonstrating much greater skill than the E3SM single column model. The DP-SCREAM is demonstrated to be applicable to coastal regions, partially due to the forcing data sets already capturing the influence of breezes. DP-SCREAM also replicates biases persistent in the global version of SCREAM: the underrepresentation of boundary layer shallow clouds, a lack of mid-level congestus clouds, and the popcorn convection, characterized by small and disorganized convective cells generating the strongest precipitation. To investigate these issues, two sensitivity experiments were conducted: increasing the mixing length and scaling up the buoyancy flux within the Simplified Higher Order Closure scheme. Increasing the mixing length improved mid-level congestus representation and reduced unrealistic early morning fog occurrence. Enhancing buoyancy flux only marginally improved the bias of underproduced big convective cells. In conclusion, an additional resolution sensitivity test at 0.5 km grid spacing demonstrated that a refined horizontal resolution alone is insufficient to resolve these biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data analysis and model simulation of the initiation of convection on April 24, 1982

A combined modelling and data analysis is used to examine the initiation and development of a hail-producing mesoscale convective system which developed over the Texas panhandle near Amarillo, Texas, on April 24, 1982, and propagated east into Oklahoma. This event occurred during the NASA AVE-VAS IV experiment, as a dense upper air mesoscale network was collecting data at three-hour intervals. The results show that both synoptic and mesoscale processes separately and in concert help to force the convection. The destabilization of the atmosphere due to cold advection is important in removing any cap to deep convective development. The upper level moistening due to flow from the northwest also helps to increase the convective instability of the atmosphere. The mesoscale convergence due to cloud shading appears dominant over that of topography, but the latter cannot be ignored, especially in its sustained effect. The developing mesoscale circulation also appears to tap a surface supply of moisture feeding the convection.

Mcnider, R. T.↗

A three-dimensional model simulation of atmospheric nitrous oxide

The NASA Langley 3D GCM chemical transport model is used to investigate the distribution of atmospheric N2O up to 60 km altitude. The transport characteristics of the model is evaluated without the complications of a detailed chemical formulation for all of the relevant stratospheric minor constituents. Interpretation of the yearly average zonal mean N2O distribution in terms of transport by the yearly averaged meridional circulation and stratospheric photochemical loss indicates large regions in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere where dynamical mixing apparently plays a large role in maintaining the N2O distribution. In these regions, slopes of the N2O mixing ratio isopleths are maintained by competition between advection by the meridional circulation acting to steepen and dynamical mixing acting to flatten the slopes.

Turner, R. E.↗

Satellite data for diagnostics and for validation of model simulations

Two issues in the treatment of tropical convection in general circulation models are examined. First, several studies have found significant gradients in clear sky longwave fluxes near large convective systems. Increased upper tropospheric moisture associated with deep convection may explain the reduction in the longwave emission. Similar local gradients are not apparent in measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), an important data set for model validation. Thus the average cloud forcing and greenhouse effect derived from models and observations may differ systematically over warm tropical oceans. A comparison of ERBE fluxes with radiative calculations using coincident balloon-sonde atmospheric profiles indicates negligible systematic bias in the observations. The effect of convection on the clear sky fluxes may be localized to the edges of individual cloud systems. Second, the balance between shortwave and cloud forcing and longwave forcing is a persistent feature of tropical cloud systems in ERBE data. This cancellation effect has been used to diagnose problems in GCM (General Circulation Model) cloud fields on seasonal time scales. The daily record of net cloud radiative forcing is analyzed to determine the smallest spatial and temporal scales for the balance. The results show cancellation on periods as short as three days for regions smaller than 2.5 by 2.5 deg. The analysis indicates that the balance is primarily a local phenomenon characteristic of tropical convection. This is consistent with findings that the small cloud radiative forcing is due primarily to thick tropical cirrus. These results represent a particularly stringent test of convective parameterizations in GCM's with interactive ocean surfaces.

Collins, W. D.↗

The volcanic signal in Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model simulations

Transient calculations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model for the climatic signal of volcanic eruptions are analyzed. By compositing the output for two different volcanoes for scenario A and five different volcanoes for scenario B, the natural variability is suppressed and the volcanic signals are extracted. Significant global mean surface air temperature cooling and precipitation reduction are found for several years following the eruptions, with larger changes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than in the Southern Hemisphere. The global-average temperature response lasts for more than four years, but the precipitation response disappears after three years. The largest cooling in the model occurs in the NH summer of the year after spring eruptions. Significant zonal-average temperature reductions begin in the tropics immediately after the eruptions and extend to 45 deg S - 45 deg N in the year after the eruptions. In the second year, cooling is still seen from 30 deg S to 30 deg N. Because of the low variability in this model as compared to the real world, these signals may appear more significant here than they would by attempting to isolate them using real data. The results suggest that volcanoes can enhance the drought in the Sahel. No evidence was found that stratospheric aerosols from the low-atitude volcanic eruptions can trigger El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in this model.

Robock, Alan↗

Comparison of structurally diverse simulation models for prediction of epidemic outcomes caused by a long-distance dispersed pathogen

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) pathogens pose substantial challenges for epidemic control due to their ability to generate new infection foci at great distances. While various modeling approaches have been developed to understand and manage such outbreaks, little work has compared how models of different structures behave under shared conditions. Here, in this study, we compare four structurally distinct epidemiological models — EPIMUL, GEMF, PoPS, and Warwick — each adapted to simulate the spread of wheat stripe rust (WSR), a wind-dispersed LDD pathogen, under identical epidemiological parameters and dispersal kernel. Using data from a controlled field experiment, we evaluate the ability of each model to replicate disease prevalence under nine intervention scenarios that vary in timing and culling area. While the models differ substantially in design — ranging from spatial grid-based to network-based and raster-based frameworks — the shared dispersal kernel allowed for close alignment in their predictions. All models accurately captured general epidemic trends, particularly the strong effect of early intervention on disease suppression. We qualitatively compared their behavioral responses across scenarios and also evaluated an ensemble prediction by averaging across model outputs. Our findings highlight how integrating shared epidemiological components into distinct modeling frameworks can improve consistency and accuracy, while reinforcing the importance of early culling in managing LDD pathogen outbreaks.

Dispersal kernel↗

A Machine Learning Examination of Hydroxyl Radical Differences Among Model Simulations for CCMI-1

Hydroxyl radical (OH) plays critical roles within the troposphere, such as determining the lifetime of methane (CH4), yet is challenging to model due to its fast cycling and dependence on a multitude of sources and sinks. As a result, the reasons for variations in OH and the resulting CH4 lifetime (TCH4), both between models and in time, are difficult to diagnose. We apply a neural network (NN) approach to address this issue within a group of models that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Analysis of the historical specified dynamics simulations performed for CCMI indicates that the primary drivers of TCH4 differences among ten models are the flux of UV light to the troposphere (indicated by the photolysis frequency JO1D) due mostly to clouds, mixing ratio of tropospheric ozone (O3), the abundance of nitrogen oxides (NOx≡NO+NO2), and details of the various chemical mechanisms that drive OH. Water vapor, carbon monoxide (CO), the ratio of NO:NOx, and formaldehyde (HCHO) explain moderate differences in TCH4, while isoprene, CH4, the photolysis frequency of NO2 by visible light (JNO2), overhead O3 column, and temperature account for little-to-no model variation in CH4. We also apply the NNs to analysis of temporal trends in OH from 1980 to 2015. All models that participated in the specified dynamics historical simulation for CCMI demonstrate a decline in CH4 during the analysed timeframe. The significant contributors to this trend, in order of importance, are tropospheric O3, JO1D, NOx, and H2O, with CO also causing substantial interannual variability in OH burden. Finally, the identified trends in TCH4 are compared to calculated trends in the tropospheric mean OH concentration from previous work, based on analysis of observations. The comparison reveals a robust result for the effect of rising water vapor on OH and CH4, imparting an increasing and decreasing trend of about 0.5% decade(exp -1), respectively. The responses due to NOx, O3 column, and temperature are also in reasonably good agreement between the two studies, though a discrepancy in the CH4 response highlights a need for further examination of the CH4 feedback on the abundance of OH.

Julie M Nicely↗

Evaluation of coupled wind-wave model simulations of offshore winds in the Mid-Atlantic Bight using lidar-equipped buoys.

From 2014 to 2017, two Department of Energy buoys equipped with Doppler lidar were deployed off the U.S. East Coast to provide long term measurements of hub-height wind speed in the marine environment. In this study, we performed simulations of selected cases from the deployment using a 5-km configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to see if simulated hub height speeds could produce closer agreement with the observations than existing reanalysis products. For each case we performed two additional simulations: one in which marine surface roughness height was one-way coupled to forecast wave parameters from a standalone WaveWatch III (WW3) simulation, and another in which WRF and WW3 were two-way coupled using the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment-Transport (COAWST) framework. It was found that all the 5-km WRF simulations improved 90-m wind speed statistics for the tropical cyclone case of 08 May 2015 and the cold frontal case of 25 Mar 2016, but not the nor-easter of 18 Jan 2016. The impact of wave coupling on buoy-level (4 m) wind speed was modest and case dependent, but when present, the impact was typically seen at 90 m as well, being as large as 10% in stable conditions. One-way wave coupling consistently reduced wind speeds, improving biases for 25 Mar 2016 but worsening them for 08 May 2015. Two-way wave coupling mitigated these negative biases, improved wave field representation and statistics, and mostly improved 4-m wind field correlation coefficients, at least at the VA buoy, largely due to greater self-consistency between wind and wave fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The analysis of a generic air-to-air missile simulation model

A generic missile model was developed to evaluate the benefits of using a dynamic missile fly-out simulation system versus a static missile launch envelope system for air-to-air combat simulation. This paper examines the performance of a launch envelope model and a missile fly-out model. The launch envelope model bases its probability of killing the target aircraft on the target aircraft's position at the launch time of the weapon. The benefits gained from a launch envelope model are the simplicity of implementation and the minimal computational overhead required. A missile fly-out model takes into account the physical characteristics of the missile as it simulates the guidance, propulsion, and movement of the missile. The missile's probability of kill is based on the missile miss distance (or the minimum distance between the missile and the target aircraft). The problems associated with this method of modeling are a larger computational overhead, the additional complexity required to determine the missile miss distance, and the additional complexity of determining the reason(s) the missile missed the target. This paper evaluates the two methods and compares the results of running each method on a comprehensive set of test conditions.

Kaplan, Joseph A.↗

Momentum Transport: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

The major objective of this study is to investigate the momentum budgets associated with several convective systems that developed during the TOGA COARE IOP (west Pacific warm pool region) and GATE (east Atlantic region). The tool for this study is the improved Goddard Cumulas Ensemble (GCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysical scheme, explicit cloud radiative interactive processes and air-sea interactive surface processes. The model domain contains 256 x 256 grid points (with 2 km resolution) in the horizontal and 38 grid points (to a depth of 22 km) in the vertical. The 2D domain has 1024 grid points. The simulations were performed over a 7-day time period (December 19-26, 1992, for TOGA COARE and September 1-7, 1994 for GATE). Cyclic literal boundary conditions are required for this type of long-term integration. Two well organized squall systems (TOGA, COARE February 22, 1993, and GATE September 12, 1994) were also simulated using the 3D GCE model. Only 9 h simulations were required to cover the life time of the squall systems. the lateral boundary conditions were open for these two squall systems simulations. the following will be examined: (1) the momentum budgets in the convective and stratiform regions, (2) the relationship between momentum transport and cloud organization (i.e., well organized squall lines versus less organized convective), (3) the differences and similarities in momentum transport between 2D and 3D simulated convective systems, and (4) the differences and similarities in momentum budgets between cloud systems simulated with open and cyclic lateral boundary conditions. Preliminary results indicate that there are only small differences between 2D and 3D simulated momentum budgets. Major differences occur, however, between momentum budgets associated with squall systems simulated using different lateral boundary conditions.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Empirical validation of building energy simulation model input parameter for multizone commercial building during the cooling season

This paper presents a critical advancement in Building Energy Modeling (BEM) through an empirical validation approach using a high-quality dataset from a multizone commercial office building in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. BEM is widely utilized in diverse construction applications, but its effectiveness relies on the accuracy of its predictions. The study focuses on empirical validation of input parameters in BEM, including building envelope data, infiltration modeling, and rooftop unit system performance curves. The validation of simulation input parameters leads to substantial improvements in the accuracy of simulation results. Notable both NMBE and cv (RMSE) values are reduced by 0.5 % for indoor air temperature and 17 % for indoor air relative humidity compared to the previous model. At the system level, both NMBE and cv (RMSE) values are reduced by 2 % for fan energy consumption and 4 % for cooling energy consumption, compared to the previous model. A literature review highlights a significant gap in empirical validation studies, which predominantly concentrate on either component-level or whole building validation. Furthermore, many studies employ simplified setups that may not faithfully represent the complexities of multizone commercial buildings. This paper distinguishes itself by emphasizing the critical importance of component-level input parameter validation. It underlines the need to validate data related to building envelope components and HVAC system performance curves, resulting in more accurate simulation outcomes. In conclusion, the utilization of actual multizone commercial building data enhances the study's practical relevance. In summary, this research underscores the pivotal role of input parameter validation in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of BEM.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗