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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

DRAGONS - A Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Impact Sensor

The Debris Resistive/Acoustic Grid Orbital Navy Sensor (DRAGONS) is intended to be a large area impact sensor for in-situ measurements of micrometeoroids and orbital debris (MMOD) in the approx.0.2 to 1 mm size regime. These MMOD particles are too small to be detected by groundbased radars and optical telescopes, but still large enough to be a safety concern for human space activities and robotic missions in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region. The nominal detection area of DRAGONS is 1 sq m, consisting of four 0.5 m x 0.5 m independently operated panels. The concept of the DRAGONS design is to combine three different detection technologies to maximize information extracted from each detected impact. The first technology is a resistive grid consisting of 62.5-microns-wide resistive lines, coated in parallel and separated by 62.5 micron gaps on a Kapton film. When a particle a few hundred micrometers or larger strikes the grid, it world penetrate the film and sever some resistive lines. The size of the damage area can be estimated from the increased resistance. The second technology employs a dual-layer, 25-microns-thick Kapton film with a 10 cm separation. By measuring the time difference between impacts on the two films, the impact speed can be calculated. The third technology is based on polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) acoustic impact sensors. Multiple PVDF sensors are attached to the backside of both Kapton films to provide impact timing measurements. The impact location on each film can be identified from the triangulation of signals received at different PVDF sensors and provides an estimate of the impact direction. The development of DRAGONS is supported by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office. The project is led by the U.S. Naval Academy (USNA), with additional collaboration from the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), the University of Kent at Canterbury in Great Britain, and Virginia Tech (VT). The short-term goal of DRAGONS is to advance its Technology Readiness Level to 9 and to demonstrate the system capabilities of detecting and characterizing submillimeter MMOD impacts. The long-term goal is to deploy a large detection area (>1 sq m) DRAGONS to 700-1000 km altitude and collect sufficient data for better environment definition of MMOD in the 0.2- to 1-mm size regime. The Preliminary Design Review (PRD) of DRAGONS was held at the USNA in June 2012. The Critical Design Review (CDR) is scheduled for early 2013. A flight-ready unit with a 0.25 sq m detection area will be completed and tested by the end of September 2013. The biggest challenge for the project, however, is to identify a demonstration opportunity on the International Space Station in the coming years.

Liou, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Orbit Transfers for Dawn's Vesta Operations : Navigation and Mission Design Experience

Dawn, a mission belonging to NASA's Discovery Program, was launched on September 27, 2007 to explore main belt asteroids in order to yield insights into important questions about the formation and evolution of the solar system. From July of 2011 to August of 2012, the Dawn spacecraft successfully returned valuable science data, collected during the four planned mapping orbits at its first target asteroid, Vesta. Each mapping orbit was designed to enable a different set of scientific observations. Such a mission would have been impossible without the low thrust ion propulsion system (IPS). Maneuvering a spacecraft using only the IPS for the transfers between the mapping orbits posed many technical challenges to Dawn's flight team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Each transfer needs a robust plan that accounts for uncertainties in maneuver execution, orbit determination, and physical characteristics of Vesta. This paper discusses the mission design and navigational experience during Dawn's Vesta operations. Topics include requirements and constraints from Dawn's science and spacecraft teams, orbit determination and maneuver design and building process for transfers, developing timelines for thrust sequence build cycles, and the process of scheduling very demanding coverage with ground antennae at NASA's Deep Space Network.

low thrust↗
DOE OSTI2016

Anual Report of Groundwater Monitoring at Centralia, Kansas, in 2015

The KDHE (2012) agreed to annual sampling at all locations, beginning with the 2013 monitoring documented previously (Argonne 2014a). This present report documents the results of the annual sampling of the approved monitoring well network on September 27-30, 2015.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

International Space Station (ISS) Plasma Contactor Unit (PCU) Utilization Plan Assessment Update

The International Space Station (ISS) vehicle undergoes spacecraft charging as it interacts with Earth's ionosphere and magnetic field. The interaction can result in a large potential difference developing between the ISS metal chassis and the local ionosphere plasma environment. If an astronaut conducting extravehicular activities (EVA) is exposed to the potential difference, then a possible electrical shock hazard arises. The control of this hazard was addressed by a number of documents within the ISS Program (ISSP) including Catastrophic Safety Hazard for Astronauts on EVA (ISS-EVA-312-4A_revE). The safety hazard identified the risk for an astronaut to experience an electrical shock in the event an arc was generated on an extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) surface. A catastrophic safety hazard, by the ISS requirements, necessitates mitigation by a two-fault tolerant system of hazard controls. Traditionally, the plasma contactor units (PCUs) on the ISS have been used to limit the charging and serve as a "ground strap" between the ISS structure and the surrounding ionospheric plasma. In 2009, a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) team evaluated the PCU utilization plan (NESC Request #07-054-E) with the objective to assess whether leaving PCUs off during non-EVA time periods presented risk to the ISS through assembly completion. For this study, in situ measurements of ISS charging, covering the installation of three of the four photovoltaic arrays, and laboratory testing results provided key data to underpin the assessment. The conclusion stated, "there appears to be no significant risk of damage to critical equipment nor excessive ISS thermal coating damage as a result of eliminating PCU operations during non- EVA times." In 2013, the ISSP was presented with recommendations from Boeing Space Environments for the "Conditional" Marginalization of Plasma Hazard. These recommendations include a plan that would keep the PCUs off during EVAs when the space environment forecast input to the ISS charging model indicates floating potentials (FP) within specified limits. These recommendations were based on the persistence of conditions in the space environment due to the current low solar cycle and belief in the accuracy and completeness of the ISS charging model. Subsequently, a Noncompliance Report (NCR), ISS-NCR-232G, Lack of Two-fault Tolerance to EVA Crew Shock in the Low Earth Orbit Plasma Environment, was signed in September 2013 specifying new guidelines for the use of shock hazard controls based on a forecast of the space environment from ISS plasma measurements taken prior to the EVA [ISS-EVA-312-AC, 2012]. This NESC assessment re-evaluates EVA charging hazards through a process that is based on over 14 years of ISS operations, charging measurements, laboratory tests, EMU studies and modifications, and safety reports. The assessment seeks an objective review of the plasma charging hazards associated with EVA operations to determine if any of the present hazard controls can safely change the PCU utilization plan to allow more flexibility in ISS operations during EVA preparation and execution.

Hernandez-Pellerano, Amri↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impacts of Aerosol and Cloud Variability on Satellite-Derived All-skies Direct Aerosol Radiative Effects (DARE) over the North and Southeast Atlantic

The Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Shortwave (SW) Direct Aerosol Radiative Effect (DARE) in all-sky conditions (i.e., aerosols in clear skies and aerosols above and below all types of clouds) is the global change in upwelling radiative flux due to aerosols. It is one of the strongest indicators of global climate change due to aerosols. SW DARE at TOA depends on the Earth’s surface albedo, cloud fraction, cloud optical properties, and aerosol optical properties, which are all challenging to accurately characterize from space. The overarching goals of our project are to provide state-of-the-art observational all-sky TOA SW DARE, along with guidance on which aerosol and/or cloud properties are the most important to measure, and at which spatio-temporal scales, for accurate DARE observations. We compute all-sky DARE based on state-of-the-art cloud and aerosol retrieval algorithms from CALIOP (Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging spectroradiometer) satellite sensors, as well as aerosol intensive properties from MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) simulations over three specific regions of the Atlantic Ocean from 2012 to 2016. In this symposium, we present a characterization of the cloud and aerosol optical and physical properties and the observational TOA SW DARE along three individual satellite tracks in the Southeast Atlantic region -- on September 18 and 20, 2016 and August 13, 2017. We then quantify the impact of assuming homogeneous cloud or aerosol fields in space-based TOA SW DARE calculations. And, finally, the resulting space-based all-skies aerosol vertical distribution and DARE calculations are evaluated using remote sensing observations from coincident suborbital flights from the NASA ORACLES (the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS, ORACLES field campaign) field campaign. The NASA Atmospheric Observing System (AOS) mission addresses the NASA Aerosol, Cloud, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) designated observables and proposes, as one of its aerosol objectives, to reduce uncertainties in estimates of global mean all-sky SW DARE at TOA. Well characterizing clouds, aerosol vertical distributions, aerosol types and associated all-skies DARE over the Atlantic Ocean will inform the AOS community on where, when, how, and how often the satellite retrievals should be performed to estimate DARE and reduce all-skies DARE uncertainties most accurately. These comprehensive characterizations will also identify the key regions and times when the AOS (or other ACCP-related) suborbital missions should be conducted to evaluate and improve the AOS space-based observations and retrievals.

aerosol↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cost Estimates for NPP Decommissioning Projects and Insights from Cost Analysis - 18118

The technical ability to decommission NPPs shut down after normal operation has been well demonstrated. However, concerns remain about the ability to accurately calculate and demonstrate the validity of decommissioning cost estimates, and to control costs during decommissioning. This paper describes recent international guidance on quality cost estimates for nuclear decommissioning projects and explores the potential added value that could be attained through more systematic analysis and reporting of decommissioning project costs. The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have long been concerned about the need to promote greater transparency in decommissioning costing and have collaborated in a number of initiatives in pursuit of this objective. Together with the European Commission, they published 'The International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC)' in 2012. The ISDC provides a useful common reporting format for decommissioning costing. The NEA has also published guidance on the international peer reviews of decommissioning cost studies (2014) and on the practice of decommissioning cost estimation (2015). In September 2017, the NEA and IAEA published detailed guidance on addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates (the 'Addressing Uncertainties' report). This joint report sets out an approach to treating uncertainties reflecting current good practices in cost estimating. Specifically, it describes how uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimation can be addressed using standardized methods of estimating uncertainty and risk analysis. Its recommendations aim at enabling a consistent and comprehensive treatment of risk and uncertainty in the preparation of decommissioning cost estimates. Together these publications establish a good basis for producing comprehensive and high-quality cost estimates for nuclear decommissioning projects and for enhancing confidence in the estimates through improving transparency concerning the underpinning data and calculations, and more explicit representation of the uncertainties that may impact on project costs. There is increasing attention on understanding variations between cost estimates and apparent escalation of decommissioning costs. This arises both from the need to assure the adequacy of financing arrangements for future decommissioning projects and the ambition to improve the performance and ensure value-for-money in the delivery of decommissioning projects and services. A systematic analysis of actual decommissioning project costs in relation to the cost estimates would be expected to yield valuable insights about key cost drivers in actual decommissioning projects, and the extent to which current cost estimates accurately capture and reflect these. Aligning the reporting of decommissioning project costs with the underpinning cost estimates for the projects would also facilitate the identification of causes of major deviations between projected and actual costs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2012

Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) Mission: Status at the Initiation of the Science Mapping Phase

The Gravity Recovery And Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission, a component of NASA's Discovery Program, launched successfully from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on September 10, 2011. The dual spacecraft traversed independent, low-energy trajectories to the Moon via the EL-1 Lagrange point and inserted into elliptical, 11.5-hour polar orbits around the Moon on December 31, 2011, and January 1, 2012. The spacecraft are currently executing a series of maneuvers to circularize their orbits at 55-km mean altitude. Once the mapping orbit is achieved, the spacecraft will undergo additional maneuvers to align them into mapping configuration. The mission is on track to initiate the Science Phase on March 8, 2012.

Zuber, Maria T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Chandra Observations of the Crab: A Progress Report

Recently there have been two important findings concerning the Crab both of which are highlighted in this workshop. One finding was the discovery, using the AGILE and Fermi satellites, of gamma-ray flares from the direction of the Crab Nebula. The other finding was the variability, up to 7%, with time scales of the order of a year of the integrated hard X-ray emission. We have been using the Chandra X-Ray observatory to monitor the Crab on a monthly cadence since just after the 2010 September gamma-ray flare. We were also fortunate to trigger series of preplanned target of opportunity observations during the 2011 April flare. Our monitoring observations are on-going and will extend, at a minimum until the fall of 2012. We present an update and overview of these observations.

Weisskopf, Martin C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Optical Navigation for the Dawn Mission at Vesta

The Dawn S/C was launched in September 2007 in order to perform remote sensing observations of the asteroids Vesta and Ceres. Dawn entered into orbit about Vesta in July 2011, completed successfully the mission goals, that were carried out in four different science orbits, by August 2012 and has since departed towards asteroid Ceres. An important component of the Dawn navigation was optical navigation, which was performed at almost all mission phases.Optical data types were used in the overall orbit determination process. In addition they were used to determine some key aspects of the asteroid's physical characteristics, such as the rotational axis, shape and surface morphology and gravity terms. In this paper we present an overview of the optical navigation operations at Vesta, the optical navigation planning, image acquisition strategy, data reduction methodology, and the up-to-date post operations assessment. Of particular importance is the extensive use of landmark navigation, which was performed for the first time for real-time support of operations and which comprised the bulk of the optical data processing.

orbital operations↗
DOE OSTI2023

CMS Physics Results in the LHC Runs 2,3

The Large hadron Collider at CERN and four scientific collaborations: Alice, ATLAS, CMS, LHCb are in operation since September 2008. The accelerator delivered and the experiments processed trillions of events of proton-proton and heavy ions collisions and provided useful data for thousands of physics analyses and publications. The jewel of the published data is a discovery in 2012 of the long anticipated Higgs boson. During the operation time the regular acquisition of data was interleaved with two periods of maintenance, Long-shutdown-1 (2013-2015) and Long-shutdown-2 (2018-2022), which resulted in several improvements to the machine and the experiments. The CMS collaboration recorded to date two large physics datasets of pp collision data. The first dataset, called Run 2, was recorded between 2015 and 2018 with 140fb-1 of integrated luminosity taken at 13TeV of center of mass energy. The second dataset, called Run 3, has just started in 2022 and it has been recording pp collision data at 13.6 TeV of center of mass energy, with 80 fb-1 of data collected till the end of July 2023.For my presentation I selected the most recent results produced by CMS from Run2 and Run 3 which are covering the topics of Higgs boson properties, searches for new particles and additional scalars, top quark production and properties, and I am discussing other interesting models e.g. using SM particles as portals to the Dark matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Determination of Ceres Physical Parameters Using Radiometric and Optical Data

The Dawn spacecraft was launched on September 27th, 2007. Its mission is to rendezvous with and observe the two largest bodies in the main asteroid belt, Vesta and Ceres. It has completed over a year’s worth of direct observations of Vesta from early 2011 through late 2012. In the spring of 2015, the Dawn spacecraft entered orbit around the asteroid Ceres for the start of what is expected to be more than a year of science operations. The science data collected from this encounter consist of infrared (IR) images and spectra, visible images through a number of color filters, gamma ray detections and measurements of the Ceres gravity field. These data will be collected during several science phases: an Approach phase (1500000-4860 km from Ceres), a Survey orbit (4860 km radius), a High Altitude Mapping Orbit (HAMO) (1940 km radius) and a Low Altitude Mapping Orbit (LAMO) (855 km radius). The Approach phase included three Rotational Characterization (RC) opportunities. Designing each science orbit and successfully transferring into that orbit requires a sufficiently accurate estimate of Ceres physical parameters (body fixed frame, GM and harmonics). This paper focuses on work performed to estimate Ceres physical parameters using Deep Space Network (DSN) radiometric tracking data and optical measurements derived from science camera imagery. This paper describes planning for the data acquisition, as well as processing techniques and methodology. The trajectories predicted by the gravity field estimations are also compared with the actual as-flown trajectories. Observations of the gravity at high altitudes are found to be sufficient to design precision orbits at lower altitudes. Follow-up analysis after successfully reaching LAMO is included, as is a discussion of lessons learned.

Kennedy, Brian M.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Performance of First C100 Cryomodules for the CEBAF 12 GeV Upgrade Project

The Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility is currently engaged in the 12 GeV Upgrade Project. The goal of the project is a doubling of the available beam energy of CEBAF from 6 GeV to 12 GeV. This increase in beam energy will be due primarily to the construction and installation of ten "C100" cryomodules in the CEBAF linacs. The C100 cryomodules are designed to deliver an average 108 MV each from a string of eight seven-cell, electropolished superconducting RF cavities operating at an average accelerating gradient of 19.2 MV/m. The new cryomodules fit in the same available linac space as the original CEBAF 20 MV cryomodules. Cryomodule production started in September 2010. Initial acceptance testing started in June 2011. The first two C100 cryomodules were installed and tested from August 2011 through October 2011, and successfully operated during the last period of the CEBAF 6 GeV era, which ended in May 2012. This paper will present the results of acceptance testing and commissioning of the C100 style cryomodules to date.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Operating the Dual-Orbiter GRAIL Mission to Measure the Moon's Gravity

NASA's mission to measure the Moon's gravity and determine the interior structure, from crust to core, has almost completed its 3-month science data collection phase. The twin orbiters of the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission were launched from Florida on September 10, 2011, on a Delta-II launch vehicle. After traveling for nearly four months on a low energy trajectory to the Moon, they were inserted into lunar orbit on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. In January 2012 a series of circularization maneuvers brought the orbiters into co-planar near-circular polar orbits. In February a distant (75- km) rendezvous was achieved and the science instruments were turned on. A dual- frequency (Ka and S-band) inter-orbiter radio link provides a precise orbiter-to-orbiter range measurement that enables the gravity field estimation. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA, manages the GRAIL project. Mission management, mission planning and sequencing, and navigation are conducted at JPL. Lockheed Martin, the flight system manufacturer, operates the orbiters from their control center in Denver, Colorado. The orbiters together have performed 28 propulsive maneuvers to reach and maintain the science phase configuration. Execution of these maneuvers, as well as the payload checkout and calibration activities, has gone smoothly due to extensive pre-launch operations planning and testing. The key to the operations success has been detailed timelines for product interchange between the operations teams and proven procedures from previous JPL/LM planetary missions. Once in science phase, GRAIL benefitted from the payload operational heritage of the GRACE mission that measures the Earth's gravity.

Moon missions↗
NASA NTRS2015

Dynamic Weather Routes: Two Years of Operational Testing at American Airlines

The Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) tool continuously analyzes active flights in en-route airspace and finds simple route corrections to achieve more time- and fuel-efficient routes around convective weather. A strong partnership between NASA, American Airlines (AA), and the Federal Aviation Administration has enabled testing of DWR in real-world air traffic operations. NASA and AA have been conducting a trial of DWR at AA’s Integrated Operations Center in Fort Worth, Texas since July 2012. This paper describes test results based on AA’s use of DWR for their flights in and around Fort Worth Center (ZFW). Results indicate an actual savings of 3,290 flying minutes for 526 AA revenue flights from January 2013 through September 2014. Of these, 48 flights each indicate a savings of 15 minutes or more. Potential savings for all flights in ZFW airspace, corrected for savings flights achieve today through normal pilot requests and controller clearances, is about 100,000 flying minutes for 15,000 flights in 2013. Results indicate that AA flights with DWR in use realize about 20 percent more savings than non-AA flights. A weather forecast analysis examines the extent to which DWR routes rated acceptable by AA users remain clear of downstream weather. A sector congestion analysis indicates congestion could be reduced 19-38 percent if all flights fly DWR routes rather than nominal weather-avoidance routes.

Trajectory Automation↗
NASA NTRS2013

Dawn Orbit Determination Team: Trajectory and Gravity Prediction Performance During Vesta Science Phases

The Dawn spacecraft was launched on September 27th, 2007. Its mission is to consecutively rendezvous with and observe the two largest bodies in the asteroid belt, Vesta and Ceres. It has already completed over a year's worth of direct observations of Vesta (spanning from early 2011 through late 2012) and is currently on a cruise trajectory to Ceres, where it will begin scientific observations in mid-2015. Achieving this data collection required careful planning and execution from all spacecraft teams. Dawn's Orbit Determination (OD) team was tasked with accurately predicting the trajectory of the Dawn spacecraft during the Vesta science phases, and also determining the parameters of Vesta to support future science orbit design. The future orbits included the upcoming science phase orbits as well as the transfer orbits between science phases. In all, five science phases were executed at Vesta, and this paper will describe some of the OD team contributions to the planning and execution of those phases.

gravity gradient torque↗
NASA NTRS2013

Dawn Orbit Determination Team: Modeling and Fitting of Optical Data at Vesta

The Dawn spacecraft was launched on September 27th, 2007. Its mission is to consecutively rendezvous with and observe the two largest bodies in the main asteroid belt, Vesta and Ceres. It has already completed over a year's worth of direct observations of Vesta (spanning from early 2011 through late 2012) and is currently on a cruise trajectory to Ceres, where it will begin scientific observations in mid-2015. Achieving this data collection required careful planning and execution from all Dawn operations teams. Dawn's Orbit Determination (OD) team was tasked with reconstruction of the as-flown trajectory as well as determination of the Vesta rotational rate, pole orientation and ephemeris, among other Vesta parameters. Improved knowledge of the Vesta pole orientation, specifically, was needed to target the final maneuvers that inserted Dawn into the first science orbit at Vesta. To solve for these parameters, the OD team used radiometric data from the Deep Space Network (DSN) along with optical data reduced from Dawn's Framing Camera (FC) images. This paper will de-scribe the initial determination of the Vesta ephemeris and pole using a combination of radiometric and optical data, and also the progress the OD team has made since then to further refine the knowledge of Vesta's body frame orientation and rate with these data.

imagery↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-103: Analysis of Hepatitis B Virus Reactivation After Conformal Radiotherapy in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using the Lyman NTCP Model

Purpose: The aim of this research was to investigate the feasibility of Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model in analyzing hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation in patients receiving conformal radiotherapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: Between June 2009 and June 2012, 108 HBV-related HCC patients (90 were specifically selected and 18 patients were excluded) treated with conformal RT at three centers were enrolled in this retrospective study. They were all diagnosed as HCC by pathology or cytology. All 90 patients were followed up to September 2013 with a median follow-up time of 25.2 months. The parameters (TD50 (1), n, and m) of the modified LKB NTCP model were derived using maximum likelihood estimation. Bootstrap and leave-one-out were employed to test the generalizability of the results for use in a general population. Results: The incidences of complications in the study population were as follows: radiation-induced liver diseases (RILD) were 17.6%, HBV reactivation was 24.8%, and HBV reactivation-induced hepatitis was 22.7%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the NTCP (p<0.001), and V20 were associated with HBV reactivation. TD50 (1), m and n were 42.9Gy (95% CI) (38.2–46.8), 0.14 (0.12–0.15) and 0.30 (0.2–0.33), respectively, for HBV reactivation. Bootstrap and leave-one-out results showed that the HBV parameter fits were extremely robust. Conclusion: A modified LKB NTCP model has been established to predict HBV reactivation for patients with HCC receiving conformal RT. The finding derives parameters set to predict potential endpoints of HBV reactivation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗