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At least 343 records · Page 19

Methodological approach to the sensitivity analysis of failure effects in modern digital I and C systems - 136

Modern I and C systems of nuclear power plants increasingly use digital equipment, software-based applications for I and C functions and different types and topologies of communication networks as well. The structure, operation and communication of digital safety-related I and C systems are strongly influenced by the implemented automatic fault detection and fault treatment procedures as barriers against failure propagation. Thus, these I and C systems can change their operating states automatically during the operation time, e.g. due to the detection and correction of certain failure types. Reasonably because of these dynamic properties of digital I and C systems the use of classical fault tree and event tree methods solely for the reliability analysis of modern I and C systems is less suitable. These methods basically apply static models and do not consider the temporal changes of the operating state of the I and C system or equipment appropriately. In this paper, a recently developed approach for the sensitivity analysis of digital I and C systems will be introduced that allows to investigate the dynamic behavior of such systems in cases of internal faults and to quantify the effects on the system reliability. The development and testing of the analysis methodology is carried out using models of generic I and C systems with different typical architectures of stepwise increased complexity. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Sensitivity Analysis of an Experimental Breeder Reactor II Fuel Assembly

The Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) was selected as a candidate for a reactor physics benchmark evaluation due to its unique features and capabilities. In connection with the benchmark evaluation, the goal of this work was to perform a sensitivity analysis. The EBR-II was a sodium cooled, pool type, metal fueled, fast spectrum reactor. EBR-II operated from 1964 through 1994. It had a maximum heat output of 62.5 MW which could produce 20 MW of electricity. The design of EBR-II consisted of 637 hexagonal shaped, removable assemblies. The assemblies were divided into three regions: the core, an inner blanket, and an outer blanket. The core region contained assemblies with 91 fuel rods in each. The fuel was enriched uranium metal and was clad within stainless steel. The core region also included two safety assemblies and eight control assemblies with the difference being that these assemblies only contained 61 fuel rods. Additional assemblies in the core region included stainless steel dummies, half worth drivers, and experimental/instrumentation assemblies. The inner blanket region initially consisted of depleted uranium for fuel breeding, but was replaced, after proving the concept of breeding, with stainless steel reflectors for the purpose of irradiation. The outer blanket region consisted of depleted uranium. Figure 1 shows a cross section view of the EBR-II core layout. Each assembly was approximately 234 cm long with the uranium fuel section being 33 cm long. Above and below the fuel were stainless steel neutron reflectors. Additionally, orifices at the bottom of the assembly allowed for sodium coolant to flow upward, with larger holes in the subassemblies at the center where the greatest heat was produced. The core of EBR-II was enclosed by a stainless steel reactor vessel which was comprised of a radial shell, a lower grid plenum structure, and an upper reactor vessel cover that served as a neutron shield. Surrounding the reactor vessel radially were layers of graphite and borated graphite shielding. The entire assembly is submerged 3 meters in a pool of sodium. The pool contained up to 337,000 liters of sodium which was forced through the core and blanket regions using two centrifugal pumps that were also submerged within the sodium pool. The design of EBR-II included many safety features. The compatibility between the sodium and stainless steel prevented corrosion and therefore the risk of a radioactive release due to corrosion. The sodium coolant was kept at near atmospheric pressure which made any leak more controllable. The metal fuel, cladding, and coolant allowed for heat to be removed easily. The large volume of sodium allowed for heat to be absorbed without problems occurring. Lastly, the reactor would expand as temperature increased which would result in greater neutron leakage. This extra leakage caused a large negative temperature reactivity feedback which automatically shut the reactor down in case of an accident. EBR-II had unique capabilities which were proven during the Integral Fast Reactor initiative. This program lasted from 1984 to 1994. The goal of this program was to solve many of the perceived problems with nuclear energy through scientific means. The safety features of EBR-II were put to the test in April 1986. The tests simulated loss of reactor coolant flow and loss of a heat sink. For both of these tests, the reactor was at 100% power and was not scrammed. During both tests, the reactor shut itself down and achieved a safe steady state temperature all due to the design of the reactor. It was because of these tests that EBR-II was chosen for a reactor physics benchmark evaluation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Sensitivity Analysis Tool for Electrochemical Conversion of CO2 to CO

Data presented in poster is sourced from the Electrochemical Catalyst Sensitivity Analysis Tool. This tool comprises a material balance model with cost estimation to estimate the levelized cost of product for CO production via CO2 electrolysis. A set of sensitivity analyses on key system and financial parameters is included with results so that users can test the impacts of these parameters on LCOP.

Henry, Samuel↗

The role of experiments and of sensitivity analysis in simulation validation strategies with emphasis on reactor physics

The complementary role of experiments and of sensitivity analysis has been and still is a key feature of validation strategies used in the field of simulation tools for nuclear reactor design. The present paper gives a summary of the development of more and more sophisticated validation strategies up to the present trend for science-based validation approaches. Most examples and some very recent original developments are given, mostly in the field of neutronics that has traditionally provided cutting edge advances for simulation tools validation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Aerodynamic design optimization using sensitivity analysis and computational fluid dynamics

A new and efficient method is presented for aerodynamic design optimization, which is based on a computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-sensitivity analysis algorithm. The method is applied to design a scramjet-afterbody configuration for an optimized axial thrust. The Euler equations are solved for the inviscid analysis of the flow, which in turn provides the objective function and the constraints. The CFD analysis is then coupled with the optimization procedure that uses a constrained minimization method. The sensitivity coefficients, i.e. gradients of the objective function and the constraints, needed for the optimization are obtained using a quasi-analytical method rather than the traditional brute force method of finite difference approximations. During the one-dimensional search of the optimization procedure, an approximate flow analysis (predicted flow) based on a first-order Taylor series expansion is used to reduce the computational cost. Finally, the sensitivity of the optimum objective function to various design parameters, which are kept constant during the optimization, is computed to predict new optimum solutions. The flow analysis of the demonstrative example are compared with the experimental data. It is shown that the method is more efficient than the traditional methods.

Baysal, Oktay↗

Wear-Out Sensitivity Analysis Project Abstract

During the course of the Summer 2015 internship session, I worked in the Reliability and Maintainability group of the ISS Safety and Mission Assurance department. My project was a statistical analysis of how sensitive ORU's (Orbital Replacement Units) are to a reliability parameter called the wear-out characteristic. The intended goal of this was to determine a worst case scenario of how many spares would be needed if multiple systems started exhibiting wear-out characteristics simultaneously. The goal was also to determine which parts would be most likely to do so. In order to do this, my duties were to take historical data of operational times and failure times of these ORU's and use them to build predictive models of failure using probability distribution functions, mainly the Weibull distribution. Then, I ran Monte Carlo Simulations to see how an entire population of these components would perform. From here, my final duty was to vary the wear-out characteristic from the intrinsic value, to extremely high wear-out values and determine how much the probability of sufficiency of the population would shift. This was done for around 30 different ORU populations on board the ISS.

Harris, Adam↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Modal Parameters of a Jacket Offshore Wind Turbine to Operational Conditions

Accurate estimation of offshore wind turbine (OWT) modal parameters has a prominent effect on the design loads, lifetime prediction, and dynamic response of the system. Modal parameters can vary during the operation of OWTs. This paper studies the variation and sensitivity analysis of an OWT’s modal parameters with respect to operational and environmental conditions. Three finite element models of a jacket-supported OWT at the Block Island Wind Farm are created within the OpenSees, SAP2000, and OpenFAST platforms and validated using experimental measurements. The OpenFAST model is used to simulate the modal parameters of the turbine under various wind speed, rotor speed, power, yaw angle, mean sea level, blade pitch angle, and soil spring values. The model-predicted modal parameters of the first fore–aft (FA) and side–side (SS) modes are compared to those identified from experimental measurements. Results from the simulations show that the first FA natural frequency and damping ratio mostly depend on the rotor speed and wind speed, respectively, while yaw angle and mean sea level do not have a visible effect. It is observed that there is about 8% stiffening in the first FA frequency and an aerodynamic damping of 7.5% during the operation of the OWT.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Sensitivity Analysis of the Fission Gas Behavior Model in BISON

This report summarizes the result of a NEAMS project focused on sensitivity analysis of a new model for the fission gas behavior (release and swelling) in the BISON fuel performance code of Idaho National Laboratory. Using the new model in BISON, the sensitivity of the calculated fission gas release and swelling to the involved parameters and the associated uncertainties is investigated. The study results in a quantitative assessment of the role of intrinsic uncertainties in the analysis of fission gas behavior in nuclear fuel.

Swiler, Laura Painton↗

Sizing and shape design sensitivity analysis using a hybrid finite element code

The practical (software) implementation of the theoretical FEM-based design sensitivity analysis method of Haug et al. (1986) is described and demonstrated. The fundamental principles of the method are reviewed; the problems involved in applying it to the Engineering Analysis Language (EAL) hybrid FEM code (Whetstone, 1983) are discussed; the formulations for beams, plate bending, and built-up structures are given in detail; programming aspects are considered; and numerical results for sample problems are presented in extensive tables. It is shown that the use of a data-base management system with an FEM such as EAL makes it possible to obtain accurate sizing and shape design sensitivity information using only one program with one data base.

Dopker, Bernhard↗

Sensitivity Analysis of the Gap Heat Transfer Model in BISON.

This report summarizes the result of a NEAMS project focused on sensitivity analysis of the heat transfer model in the gap between the fuel rod and the cladding used in the BISON fuel performance code of Idaho National Laboratory. Using the gap heat transfer models in BISON, the sensitivity of the modeling parameters and the associated responses is investigated. The study results in a quantitative assessment of the role of various parameters in the analysis of gap heat transfer in nuclear fuel.

Swiler, Laura Painton↗

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

Monte Carlo Simulation↗

Parametric and Sensitivity Analysis of a Steam Generator Model Using Python and Machine-Learning Tools

For this study, we used Python and machine-learning tools to perform a comprehensive parametric and sensitivity analysis on a steam generator (SG) model. (The Python model was based on a previously completed MATLAB framework for the Holtec SMR-160 SG.) We investigated the influence of various input parameters (e.g., heat transfer coefficient [HTC], Nusselt number, and heat exchanger effectiveness) on the system’s output. With machine-learning tools such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN), which was developed at Idaho National Laboratory, we were then able to perform an automated analysis of the SG inputs’ effect on the HTC. The analysis results give valuable insights into the performance and optimization of SG systems. We found the inlet mass flow rate (MFR) to have the greatest impact on the HTC, followed closely by the inlet temperature, and then pressure. Shifting of the input parameters causes the location of the maximum HTC along the SG length to change incrementally. The cold leg (CL) MFR was also found to impact the HTC magnitude as well as the location of the maximum HTC. At between 0.4–0.9 of the total SG length, the input parameters experience maximum impact on the HTC, leading us to suggest that sensors be efficiently placed on the SG so as to closely and effectively monitor thermal-hydraulic properties during reactor operation. We also found that the sensitivity data calculated manually agrees with the RAVEN – based data, confirming the same range of maximum sensitivity. However, the RAVEN-based analysis showed that cold leg pressure and hot leg temperature have a greater impact on the heat transfer coefficient than the mass flow rate, implying that a manual sensitivity study taking only two samples is not accurate.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

High Accuracy Coronagraph Flight Model For WFIRST–CGI Raw Contrast Sensitivity Analysis

A high-accuracy high-fidelity flight wavefront control (WFC) model is developed for detailed raw contrast sensitivity analysis of WFIRST-CGI. Built upon features of recently testbed validated model, it is further refined to combine a full Fresnel propagation diffraction model for high accuracy contrast truth evaluation, and an economical compact model for WFC purposes. Extensive individual raw contrast error sensitivities are evaluated systematically, both as known imperfections and as unknown calibration errors, for both spectroscopy mode and wide field-of-view mode with shaped pupil coronagraph. More than 90 distinct error items were identified, including system aberrations, optical misalignment, component manufacturing error, telescope interface related errors, etc. The result forms the basis for raw contrast error budget flow down to a sub-system level, where detailed specifications needed to aid in component design and manufacturing, mechanical alignment and instrument integration, and verification and validation operations. Evaluations are mostly automated, making it relatively easy for repeat runs of revised design or at new desired error quantity. Top error sensitivities and contrast floor contributors are discussed and several observations are noted.

Poberezhskiy, Ilya↗

Image quality in thoracic 4D cone-beam CT: A sensitivity analysis of respiratory signal, binning method, reconstruction algorithm, and projection angular spacing

Purpose: Respiratory signal, binning method, and reconstruction algorithm are three major controllable factors affecting image quality in thoracic 4D cone-beam CT (4D-CBCT), which is widely used in image guided radiotherapy (IGRT). Previous studies have investigated each of these factors individually, but no integrated sensitivity analysis has been performed. In addition, projection angular spacing is also a key factor in reconstruction, but how it affects image quality is not obvious. An investigation of the impacts of these four factors on image quality can help determine the most effective strategy in improving 4D-CBCT for IGRT. Methods: Fourteen 4D-CBCT patient projection datasets with various respiratory motion features were reconstructed with the following controllable factors: (i) respiratory signal (real-time position management, projection image intensity analysis, or fiducial marker tracking), (ii) binning method (phase, displacement, or equal-projection-density displacement binning), and (iii) reconstruction algorithm [Feldkamp–Davis–Kress (FDK), McKinnon–Bates (MKB), or adaptive-steepest-descent projection-onto-convex-sets (ASD-POCS)]. The image quality was quantified using signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio, and edge-response width in order to assess noise/streaking and blur. The SNR values were also analyzed with respect to the maximum, mean, and root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) projection angular spacing to investigate how projection angular spacing affects image quality. Results: The choice of respiratory signals was found to have no significant impact on image quality. Displacement-based binning was found to be less prone to motion artifacts compared to phase binning in more than half of the cases, but was shown to suffer from large interbin image quality variation and large projection angular gaps. Both MKB and ASD-POCS resulted in noticeably improved image quality almost 100% of the time relative to FDK. In addition, SNR values were found to increase with decreasing RMSE values of projection angular gaps with strong correlations (r ≈ −0.7) regardless of the reconstruction algorithm used. Conclusions: Based on the authors’ results, displacement-based binning methods, better reconstruction algorithms, and the acquisition of even projection angular views are the most important factors to consider for improving thoracic 4D-CBCT image quality. In view of the practical issues with displacement-based binning and the fact that projection angular spacing is not currently directly controllable, development of better reconstruction algorithms represents the most effective strategy for improving image quality in thoracic 4D-CBCT for IGRT applications at the current stage.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

SAGE Intrusion Detection System: Sensitivity Analysis Guided Explainability for Machine Learning.

This report details the results of a three-fold investigation of sensitivity analysis (SA) for machine learning (ML) explainability (MLE): (1) the mathematical assessment of the fidelity of an explanation with respect to a learned ML model, (2) quantifying the trustworthiness of a prediction, and (3) the impact of MLE on the efficiency of end-users through multiple users studies. We focused on the cybersecurity domain as the data is inherently non-intuitive. As ML is being using in an increasing number of domains, including domains where being wrong can elicit high consequences, MLE has been proposed as a means of generating trust in a learned ML models by end users. However, little analysis has been performed to determine if the explanations accurately represent the target model and they themselves should be trusted beyond subjective inspection. Current state-of-the-art MLE techniques only provide a list of important features based on heuristic measures and/or make certain assumptions about the data and the model which are not representative of the real-world data and models. Further, most are designed without considering the usefulness by an end-user in a broader context. To address these issues, we present a notion of explanation fidelity based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory. We find that all of the investigated MLE explainability methods produce explanations that are incongruent with the ML model that is being explained. This is because they make critical assumptions about feature independence and linear feature interactions for computational reasons. We also find that in deployed, explanations are rarely used due to a variety of reason including that there are several other tools which are trusted more than the explanations and there is little incentive to use the explanations. In the cases when the explanations are used, we found that there is the danger that explanations persuade the end users to wrongly accept false positives and false negatives. However, ML model developers and maintainers find the explanations more useful to help ensure that the ML model does not have obvious biases. In light of these findings, we suggest a number of future directions including developing MLE methods that directly model non-linear model interactions and including design principles that take into account the usefulness of explanations to the end user. We also augment explanations with a set of trustworthiness measures that measure geometric aspects of the data to determine if the model output should be trusted.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Launch Vehicles with Varying Payloads and Adapters for Structural Dynamics and Loads

This paper examines Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis (PSA) methods and tools in an effort to understand their utility in vehicle loads and dynamic analysis. Specifically, this study addresses how these methods may be used to establish limits on payload mass and cg location and requirements on adaptor stiffnesses while maintaining vehicle loads and frequencies within established bounds. To this end, PSA methods and tools are applied to a realistic, but manageable, integrated launch vehicle analysis where payload and payload adaptor parameters are modeled as random variables. This analysis is used to study both Regional Response PSA (RRPSA) and Global Response PSA (GRPSA) methods, with a primary focus on sampling based techniques. For contrast, some MPP based approaches are also examined.

McGhee, David S.↗

Sensitivity analysis for characterizing the impact of HNGD model on the prediction of hydrogen redistribution in Zircaloy cladding using BISON code

Hydrogen in zirconium cladding is able to precipitate into zirconium hydrides which impacts cladding integrity. The Hydride Nucleation-Growth-Dissolution (HNGD) model in the BISON code accounts for the precipitation and dissolution kinetics of hydride in Zircaloy material. This paper presents global sensitivity analyses of the HNGD model aiming to enhance our understanding of the hydride precipitation phenomena by quantifying the variance that key parameters have on the prediction of hydrogen behavior under various environmental conditions. Here, model predictions are compared to experimental data obtained under two different conditions: 1) with uniformly precharged specimens subjected to a linear thermal gradient, and 2) specimens precharged with a cathodically applied hydride rim at one end of the sample and subjected to an asymmetric thermal gradient. The Sobol sensitivity analysis identifies the key parameters in the HNGD model for both types of specimens. For linear temperature cases, the heat of transport dominates the accuracy of predictions when no precipitation occurs at the cold end, while Terminal Solid Solubility for Dissolution (TSSD) is the most important parameter when precipitation occurs. A large variation in the predicted hydrogen concentration profiles is found in the range of high TSSD due to the occurrence of precipitation. For asymmetric temperature cases, the solubility coefficient gives the largest impact on the predicted hydrogen distribution, as it determines the amount of solute hydrogen dissolved from the initially applied hydride rim. A large discrepancy in hydrogen distribution between simulations and experiments exists with the asymmetric specimens because BISON simulations fail to predict the precipitation of hydride at the cooler end. Comparative studies using former and updated models verifies the significant impact of the hydride growth mechanism on predicted hydrogen concentration profiles. In particular, when hydride initially exists, changes in TSSD generate a large variation in the predicted amount of precipitation by hydride growth, giving large uncertainty in predicting the hydrogen distribution over the sample length. The outputs characterize the significant impact of the hydride growth mechanism in the HNGD model on predicting hydrogen behavior, and improve the understanding of the precipitation of hydride in Zircaloy cladding within a range of expected environmental conditions. The analyses indicate work is still needed to improve the hydride solvus models in the BISON code to accurately predict experimentally observed hydride concentrations and distributions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗