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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Geomagnetically Induced Currents Around the World During the 17 March 2015 Storm

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a significant space weather issue for power grid and pipeline infrastructure, particularly during severe geomagnetic storms. In this study, magnetometer data collected from around the world are analyzed to investigate the GICs caused by the 2015 St. Patricks Day storm. While significant GIC activity in the high-latitude regions due to storm time substorm activity is shown for this event, enhanced GIC activity was also measured at two equatorial stations in the American and Southeast Asian sectors. This equatorial GIC activity is closely examined, and it is shown that it is present both during the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the storm sudden commencement (SSC) in Southeast Asia and during the main phase of the storm approximately 10 h later in South America. The SSC caused magnetic field variations at the equator in Southeast Asia that were twice the magnitude of those observed only a few degrees to the north, strongly indicating that the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) played a significant role. The large equatorial magnetic field variations measured in South America are also examined, and the coincident solar wind data are used to investigate the causes of the sudden changes in the EEJ approximately 10 h into the storm. From this analysis it is concluded that sudden magnetopause current increases due to increases in the solarwind dynamic pressure, and the sudden changes in the resultant magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems, are the primary drivers of equatorial GICs.

Carter, B. A.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Simulations of Van Allen Probes Plasmaspheric Electron Density Observations

Here we simulate equatorial plasmaspheric electron densities using a physics-based model (Cold PLasma, CPL; used in the ring current-atmosphere interactions model) of the source and loss processes of refilling and erosion driven by empirical inputs. The performance of CPL is evaluated against in situ measurements by the Van Allen Probes (Radiation Belt Storm Probes) for two events: the 31 May to 5 June and 15 to 20 January 2013 geomagnetic storms observed in the premidnight and postmidnight magnetic local time (MLT) sectors, respectively. Overall, CPL reproduces the radial extent of the plasmasphere to within a mean absolute difference of |ΔL avg |=0.5 ± 0.1 L. The model electric field responsible for E × B convection and the parameterization of geomagnetic conditions (under the Kp-index and solar wind properties) implemented by CPL did not account for localized enhancements in the duskward electric field during increased activity. Rather, it was found to be largely dependent on the measure of the quiet time background. Finally, this property indicates that the agreement between these simulations and observations does not account for the complete set of physical processes during extreme (strong or weak) geomagnetic conditions impacting the plasmasphere. Nevertheless, at the presented resolution of the model CPL does provide good agreement in reproducing Radiation Belt Storm Probes observations of plasmaspheric density and plasmapause location.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Structural changes and variability of the ITCZ induced by radiation–cloud–convection–circulation interactions: inferences from the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (GMMF) experiments

In this paper, we have investigated the impact of radiation–cloud–convection–circulation interaction (RC3I) on structural changes and variability of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) using the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, where cloud processes are super-parameterized, i.e., explicitly resolved with 2-D cloud resolving models embedded in each coarse grid of the host Goddard Earth Observing System-Version 5 global climate model. Experiments have been conducted under prescribed sea surface temperature conditions for 10 years (2007–2016), with and without cloud radiation feedback in the atmosphere, respectively. Diagnostic analyses separately for January and July show that RC3I leads to an enhanced and expanded Hadley Circulation characterized by (1) a quasi-uniform warming and moistening of the tropical atmosphere and a sharpening of the ITCZ with enhanced deep convection, more intense precipitation and higher clouds, (2) extended drying of the tropical marginal convective zones, and extratropical mid- to lower troposphere, and (3) a cooling of the polar regions, with increased baroclinicity and midlatitude storm track activities. Computations based on the zonal mean thermodynamic energy balance equation show that the radiative warming and cooling are strongly balanced by local adiabatic processes associated with changes in large-scale vertical motions, as well as horizontal atmospheric heat transport. In the tropics, enhanced short-wave absorption and longwave water vapor greenhouse effects by high clouds play key roles in providing strong positive feedback to the tropospheric warming. In the extratropics, increased atmospheric heat transport associated with changes in the Hadley circulation is balanced by strong longwave cooling above, and warming below due to increased high clouds. We also find a strong positive correlation between daily and pentad heavy rain in the ITCZ core, and expansion of the drier zones coupled to a contraction of the highly convective zones in the ITCZ, indicating a strong tendency RC3I-induced convective aggregation in tropical clouds i.e., wet-regions-get-wetter and contracted, and dry-areas-get-drier and expanded.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Factors Associated With Fall Phytoplankton Blooms in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas

This study investigates environmental drivers of fall phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic, focusing on the northern Bering and Chukchi seas. Random Forests models were used to analyze covariates of fall phytoplankton blooms from 2013 to 2018, incorporating shipboard, remote sensing, and modeled environmental properties. Four regional models and one comprehensive all-station model considered fall as well as midsummer conditions. Midsummer properties included suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll-a, and the proportion of degraded pheophytin to chlorophyll-a used as a proxy for bloom stage. Open water duration was one of the highest ranked factors in predicting fall blooms. Open water duration also influences the stage of midsummer (July) blooms as indicated by pheophytin proportions, which in turn were the highest-ranked factor for predicting fall bloom events in the Chirikov Basin (northern Bering Sea between St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait) and the Chukchi Sea. Wind direction, specifically easterly winds, was an important predictor in the northern Bering Sea. Maximum wind speed ranked highly at stations located within the nutrient-poor Alaska Coastal Current in the Chukchi Sea. However, stormy days, average and maximum wind speeds generally ranked low in importance as a predictor of fall bloom events. Other parameters, including photosynthetic active radiation, modeled nutrient concentrations, mixed layer depth, and time since sea ice breakup date showed strong but regionally varying relationships with fall blooms. Altogether, results from these Random Forests models suggest that high wind events and storms in the absence of sea ice provide an incomplete narrative for initiating fall bloom events.

Gaffey, C. B. [Clark University, Worcester, MA (Un↗
NASA NTRS1983

Three Mars years - Viking Lander 1 imaging observations

The Mutch Memorial Station (Viking Lander 1) on Mars acquired imaging and meteorological data over a period of 2245 martian days (3.3 martian years). This article discusses the deposition and erosion of thin deposits (ten to hundreds of micrometers) of bright red dust associated with global dust storms, and the removal of centimeter amounts of material in selected areas during a dust storm late in the third winter. Atmospheric pressure data acquired during the period of intense erosion imply that baroclinic disturbances and strong diurnal solar tidal heating combined to produce strong winds. Erosion occurred principally in areas where soil cohesion was reduced by earlier surface sampler activities. Except for redistribution of thin layers of materials, the surface appears to be remarkably stable, perhaps because of cohension of the undisturbed surface material.

Arvidson, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Ability of a regional-scale model to predict the genesis of intense mesoscale convective systems

The mesoscale part of a two-part evaluation of 30 forecasts by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (MASS 2.0) is presented. Unfiltered fields are combined into convective predictor fields, the loci of which are then related at two-hour intervals to the loci of strong mesoscale convective systems identifiable in national radar summary plots and GOES satellite imagery. Examples of model 'forecasts' of intense convective storm clusters, a severe squall line triggered along a dryline, orographically induced hailstorms, and sea breeze thunderstorms are provided.

Koch, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Design and Conduct of a Windshear Detection Flight Experiment

A description of the design and conduct of a series of flight experiments which tested the performance of candidate windshear detection devices is presented. With prototype windshear sensors installed, a NASA Boeing 737 test aircraft conducted numerous low altitude penetrations of microburst windshear conditions. These tests were preceded by extensive preparations which included piloted simulations, determination of safe operating limits, and the development of unique flight test hardware, displays, and procedures. The test aircraft and more than 50 research and support personnel were deployed to Orlando, Florida, and Denver, Colorado, during June and July 1991 for field testing. Upon receiving a forecast of developing weather activity, the aircraft crew launched and proceeded to the storm location, guided by uplinked ground radar information and voice communications with ground weather personnel. The tests required constant monitoring of numerous factors including aircraft flight parameters, ground obstructions, windshear magnitude, lightning, escape routes, ATC coordination, storm cell development, and others. The flight tests were extremely successful, safely recording more than 25 low altitude microburst windshear and strong gust front approaches and penetrations, along with completing a full test matrix of additional requirements related to windshear sensor performance. Data quality from the tests was excellent and indicates strong potential for airborne remote sensors to accurately predict and warn the flight crew of hazardous windshear conditions with ample time for precautionary crew action.

Flight Testing↗
NASA NTRS1996

Visualization of High Latitude Ion Upflow in Support of the Image Mission

The study of the magnetosphere is a 400 year old science that began with the publication by Gilbert, in 1600, of his hypotheses that the Earth was a giant magnet. Since then we have learned many things about the magnetosphere, particularly in the last 40 years of the space age, but we still have many unanswered questions. In spite of the many thousands of observations of this system we still lack a global understanding of how it works. This is due to its large size and tenuous nature that mean that any measurement made of the fields or particles involved only give one a knowledge of the local conditions at a given time. To gain a global perspective through such observations would require the simultaneous operation of thousands of satellites spread throughout the magnetospheric system in addition to observations made on the ground. Such a program would be impractical at least from financial considerations. What is needed for the advancement of magnetospheric physics is to develop the same capabilities that astrophysicists, solar physicists and meteorologists have been using for years --- the ability to stand back from the object under study and see it in its entirety. The challenge for doing this for the magnetosphere is that the particle densities are very low and the material is, for the most part, not luminous. In the last 25 years several ideas have been proposed that would allow at least the imaging of certain portions of the magnetosphere. These include imaging of the plasmasphere through the resonant scattering of solar 304 A from He+ ions, imaging of various hot plasma populations (i.e. the ring current, plasmasheet, upflowing ionospheric ions, etc.) from the neutral atoms that result when ions of these populations charge exchange with the hydrogen geocorona, and imaging the aurora at various wavelengths in the far ultraviolet. In addition, a novel technique for probing various boundaries in the magnetosphere by bouncing low frequency radio waves off of them has been extensively studied. Such a technique is analogous to the way the under water world can be probed with sonar. About five years ago NASA convened a science working group to study the possibility of flying a magnetospheric imaging mission. This resulted in a number of proposals for such a mission, one of which was selected to be the first MIDEX mission, to be launched in early 2000. The mission is called IMAGE (Imager for Magnetopause to Aurora Global Exploration) and its P.I. is J. Burch at SwRI. The IMAGE spacecraft will carry imagers to view the plasmasphere, aurora, ring current, inner plasmasheet, and upflowing ionospheric ions as well as a radio sounder to probe the location, shape and dynamics of the magnetopause, plasmapause, etc. Between its selection last April and the non advocacy mission review, which takes place next spring, the IMAGE teams needs to further refine the design of the mission and its instruments. The theory and modeling (T&M) subgroup of this team has the task of demonstrating what kind of images the instruments on IMAGE will see as well as showing that useful scientific information can be extracted from such images. As a central element to the efforts of the T&M subgroup we have decided to simulate and create synthetic images for the magnetic cloud event of October, 1995. In this event a large cloud, with high plasma densities and strong magnetic fields, ejected from the sun collided with the earth's magnetosphere triggering a three day period of intense magnetic storms and substorms. This event was observed from a number of different spacecraft and on the ground so we have a good data set to work with. In our work we will place the IMAGE spacecraft in the magnetosphere on its proposed orbit, with its proposed instruments, to see what it would see had it been there. Existing models of the plasmasphere, ring current and magnetopause will be run for this event to give the structures for the imaging instruments. There are several models which are lacking and which need to be developed. These include a model for the cusp, the inner plasmasheet and the upflowing ions. My task this summer was to develop the upflowing ion model and use it to create synthetic images.

Wilson, Gordon R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2002

Evidence for Subauroral Electric Fields from IMAGE EUV

The IMAGE Mission Extreme Ultraviolet Imager routinely provides global snapshots of the plasmasphere from high latitude. In these 10-minute images, intensity edges have been identified with the plasmapause and other strong gradients in plasmaspheric density. In addition to the classic sunward directed convection tail and its entrainment in corotation during storm-time recovery, the plasmapause boundary reveals a wide variety of structures thought to result from penetration of the solar wind induced convection electric field to subauroral latitudes. The so-called shoulder feature has most prominently been discussed in the context of under shielding in response to changes in the convection electric field strength. It is not yet clear whether all of the observed surface structures on the plasmasphere can be explained in this manner. The types of structures observed and their frequency of occurrence will be presented. A statistical view of these structures and associated solar wind conditions will also be presented.

Six, N. Frank↗
NASA NTRS2021

Tropical Cyclones in Global Storm-Resolving Models

Recent progress in computing and model development has initiated the era of global storm-resolving modeling, and with it the potential to transform weather and climate prediction. Within the general theme of vetting this new class of models, the present study evaluates nine global-storm resolving models in their ability to simulate tropical cyclones (TCs). Results indicate that, broadly speaking, the models produce realistic TCs and remove longstanding issues known from global models such as the deficiency in accurately simulating TC intensity. However, TCs are strongly affected by model formulation, and all models suffer from unique biases regarding the number of TCs, intensity, size, and structure. Some models simulated TCs better than others, but no single model was superior in every way. The overall results indicate that global storm-resolving models can open a new chapter in TC prediction, but they need to be improved to unleash their full potential.

Falko Judt↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Trust-Region Algorithm in Random Subspaces with Convergence and Expected Complexity Analyses

Here, this work proposes a framework for large-scale stochastic derivative-free optimization (DFO) by introducing STARS, a trust-region method based on iterative minimization in random subspaces. This framework is both an algorithmic and theoretical extension of a random subspace derivative-free optimization (RSDFO) framework, and an algorithm for stochastic optimization with random models (STORM). Moreover, like RSDFO, STARS achieves scalability by minimizing interpolation models that approximate the objective in low-dimensional affine subspaces, thus significantly reducing per-iteration costs in terms of function evaluations and yielding strong performance on largescale stochastic DFO problems. The user-determined dimension of these subspaces, when the latter are defined, for example, by the columns of so-called Johnson-Lindenstrauss transforms, turns out to be independent of the dimension of the problem. For convergence purposes, inspired by the analyses of RSDFO and STORM, both a particular quality of the subspace and the accuracies of random function estimates and models are required to hold with sufficiently high, but fixed, probabilities. Using martingale theory under the latter assumptions, an almost sure global convergence of STARS to a first-order stationary point is shown, and the expected number of iterations required to reach a desired first-order accuracy is proved to be similar to that of STORM and other stochastic DFO algorithms, up to constants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1983

A numerical investigation of the President's Day storm of February 18-19, 1979

The reported investigation is based on the use of a three-dimensional, primitive equation model. The President's Day storm, formed in the Gulf of Mexico as a massive anticyclone, affected the northern states with record-breaking cold temperatures. Attention is given to the physical processes relevant to storm formation, the forecast model, a description of experiments and model forecasts, and model results. An attempt is made to determine the important dynamic processes at work during the evolution of the storm. The jet streak interactions which occurred in the cyclogenetic environment, the effects of cold air damming, and the formation of a strong mesoscale coastal front are found to be of particular interest.

Nappi, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Comparison of lightning observations from the KSC LDAR system with radar observations from the NCAR CP-2 radar

This grant supported observations of thunderstorms at Kennedy Space Center during the summer of 1995. In particular, we obtained detailed observations of lightning-producing storms over KSC with the CP2 radar of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), for the purpose of comparing these with observations from KSC's Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system. The NCAR radar was a special purpose dual-polarization system for studying the development of precipitation in storms and was at KSC for another project, the Small Cumulus Microphysics Study - SCMS. We used the radar on a non-interference basis to obtain the desired observations. In addition we recorded the electrostatic field change of the lightning discharges at two locations. Subsequent to the field observational period we compared the LDAR lightning observations with the storm structure as indicated by the radar. The results obtained to date are summarized briefly as follows: (1) The initial lightning sequence in a small developing storm was observed to occur in a region of the storm where supercooled raindrops had frozen within the previous few minutes. This is consistent with the idea that the storm electrification is produced by interactions between ice particles. (2) The lightning discharges tended to avoid regions of supercooled liquid raindrops, possibly indicating that corona from the drops reduces any electrification in the vicinity of the drops. (3) 'Bilevel' lightning discharges within storms have been confirmed to be between the level of negative charge at mid-levels in the storm and the upper storm level. This is consistent with and expands upon our understanding that storms have a basic dipolar charge structure. (4) The upward channels of the intracloud lightning discharges are often aligned with shafts of strong precipitation, and often begin just above the upper extent of 40 dBZ reflectivity in the precipitation shaft. This is consistent with a precipitation-based mechanism of electrification.

Krehbiel, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2013

Teleconnections, Midlatitude Cyclones and Aegean Sea Turbulent Heat Flux Variability on Daily Through Decadal Time Scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958-2001, and identify four distinct cyclone states, corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc), and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deep water formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern (NCP), showing that the area of influence of large scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.

cyclones↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the small-scale deposition of snow onto structured Arctic sea ice during a MOSAiC storm using snowBedFoam 1.0.

The remoteness and extreme conditions of the Arctic make it a very difficult environment to investigate. In these polar regions covered by sea ice, the wind is relatively strong due to the absence of obstructions and redistributes a large part of the deposited snow mass, which complicates estimates for precipitation hardly distinguishable from blowing or drifting snow. Moreover, the snow mass balance in the sea ice system is still poorly understood, notably due to the complex structure of its surface. Quantitatively assessing the snow distribution on sea ice and its connection to the sea ice surface features is an important step to remove the snow mass balance uncertainties (i.e., snow transport contribution) in the Arctic environment. In this work we introduce snowBedFoam 1.0., a physics-based snow transport model implemented in the open-source fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM. We combine the numerical simulations with terrestrial laser scan observations of surface dynamics to simulate snow deposition in a MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) sea ice domain with a complicated structure typical for pressure ridges. The results demonstrate that a large fraction of snow accumulates in their vicinity, which compares favorably against scanner measurements. However, the approximations imposed by the numerical framework, together with potential measurement errors (precipitation), give rise to quantitative inaccuracies, which should be addressed in future work. The modeling of snow distribution on sea ice should help to better constrain precipitation estimates and more generally assess and predict snow and ice dynamics in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bottom-up Approach to Improve the Representation of Deep Convective Clouds in Weather and Climate Models (Final Report)

A fundamental yet outstanding question about deep cumulus convection regards how convective updrafts, downdrafts, and surface-based cold pools are inter-related within organized storms, and how these three convective components are modulated by external and internal factors. We considered this question through numerical model simulations as well as data collected during the MC3E field campaign. One of our basic hypotheses was that deep cold pools are forced by wide downdrafts which arise from wide updrafts. This “bottom-up” perspective required consideration of the external controls on updraft width, and then the internal controls on cold-pool characteristics including depth. Model experiments showed that environmental vertical wind shear (an external factor) exerts a particularly strong control on updraft width; analyses of linear and nonlinear dynamic pressure forcing readily explain this control. The experiments also showed that increases in updraft width are accompanied by corresponding increases in downdraft width and cold-pool depth. The updraft–downdraft connection is through precipitation: the wide area of precipitation that will be initiated in a wide updraft will in turn lead to a wide downdraft. The downdraft–cold pool connection is through mass continuity: at the downdraft terminus, the large downdraft mass flux through a wide downdraft must lead to a deep cold pool. Model experiments also showed that the cold-pool depth and other characteristics can be significantly modulated by microphysical processes (internal factors). Specifically, the cold-pool expansion rate, depth, and intensity was found to depend most strongly on the amount of rain evaporation near the ground. However, the sustenance of the cold pool itself depended upon the downdrafts strengthened by sublimation of graupel higher in the storm. Finally, field campaign data revealed compelling inter-relationships between the cold-pool characteristics, and downdraft transience in terms of the microphysics. For example, pulses of hail and graupel (also internal factors) within downdrafts resulted in short-lived increases in the cold-pool depth. However, the cold-pool speed appeared to be relatively independent of the cold-pool depth and intensity, suggesting limitations of density current theory to convective cold pools in nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Remarkable 2024 North Atlantic Mid‐Season Hurricane Lull

Abstract The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season started quickly, with the earliest Category 5 on record (Beryl) and three hurricanes forming through 14 August. Following Ernesto's dissipation on 20 August, the Atlantic hurricane season became extremely quiet during the climatological peak of hurricane season, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm through 23 September. Several environmental factors likely contributed to this unexpected, prolonged lull. During mid‐to‐late August, subseasonal conditions were broadly favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, but a northward shift in African easterly wave emergence latitude yielded fewer tropical cyclone seed disturbances that also traversed unfavorably cool ocean water. During early‐to‐mid September, subseasonal variability driven by the Madden‐Julian oscillation was less conducive to hurricane activity, with several bouts of increased vertical wind shear across the central Atlantic. Throughout most of the lull, the tropical Atlantic was anomalously dry and subsident, suppressing hurricane formation chances. Plain Language Summary The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season was anticipated to be extremely active, with seasonal forecasts calling for a potentially historic season. Following a busy start including the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record (Beryl), the season became very quiet between 20 August–23 September, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm forming. Following the lull, the Atlantic became extremely busy again, with seven hurricanes forming from 25 September through the end of the season–the most on record for this period. This paper focuses on the surprising lull and attributes it to several different factors, including a late‐August northward shift in African easterly wave tracks (organized thunderstorm complexes spanning thousands of kilometers that often serve as Atlantic hurricane seeds). This northward shift brought these systems out over colder water and into a drier airmass, suppressing their hurricane formation chances. During the first 3 weeks of September, a large‐scale tropical phenomenon known as the Madden‐Julian oscillation, resulted in increased sinking motion, drier mid‐levels and increased vertical wind shear–all of which typically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. Overall, the lull demonstrates how seed disturbances and other environmental factors can strongly modulate aggregate seasonal tropical cyclone activity. Key Points Following an active start, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane was quiet during the climatological peak with only 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane The lull was not anticipated by seasonal forecasting agencies, which called for an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Factors reducing storm count included a northward shift in African easterly waves, broad‐scale subsidence, and reduced mid‐level moisture

Klotzbach, P J↗