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NASA NTRS1998

Decadal Air-Sea Interaction in the North Atlantic Based on Observations and Modeling Results

The decadal, 12-14 year, cycle observed in the North Atlantic SST and tide gauge data was examined using the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, COADS data and an ocean model simulation. Besides this decadal mode, a shorter, subdecadal period of about 8 years exists in tide gauge data north of 40N, in the subpolar SST and in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and in subpolar winter heat flux values. The decadal cycle is a well separated mode in a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for a time series of SST EOF mode 1 with a center over the Gulf Stream extension. Tide gauge and SST data are consistent in that both show a significant subdecadal periodicity exclusively in the subpolar gyre, but in subtropics the 12-14 year period is the prominent, but nonstationary, decadal signal. The main finding of this study is that this 12-14 year cycle can be constructed based on the leading mode of the surface heat flux. This connection to the surface heat flux implicates the participation of the thermohaline circulation in the decadal cycle. During the cycle starting from the positive index phase of NAO, SST and oceanic heat content anomalies are created in subtropics due to local heat flux and intensification of the thermohaline circulation. The anomalies advect to the subpolar gyre where they are amplified by local heat flux and are part of the negative feedback of thermohaline circulation on itself. Consequently the oceanic thermohaline circulation slows down and the opposite cycle starts. The oscillatory nature would not be possible without the active atmospheric participation in the cycle, because it provides the unstable interaction through heat flux, without it, the oceanic mode would be damped. This analysis suggests that the two principal modes of heat flux variability, corresponding to patterns similar to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Western Atlantic (WA), are part of the same decadal cycle and an indirect measure of the north-south movement of the storm tracks.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS1999

An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon

Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Impact of Surface Boundary Forcing on Simulation of the 1998 Summer Drought Over the US Midwest Using Factor Separation Technique

The factor separation (FS) technique has been utilized to evaluate quantitatively the impact of surface boundary forcings on simulation of the 1988 summer drought over the Midwestern part of the U.S. The four surface boundary forcings used are: (1)Sea Surface Temperature (SST), (2) soil moisture, (3) snow cover, and (4) sea ice. The Goddard Earth Observing System(GEOS) General Circulation Model (GCM) is used to simulate the 1988 U.S. drought. A series of sixteen simulations are performed with climatological and real 1988 surface boundary conditions. The major single and mutual synergistic factors/impacts are analyzed. The results show that SST and soil moisture are the major single pro-drought factors. The couple synergistic effect of SST and soil moisture is the major anti-drought factor. The triple synergistic impact of SST, soil moisture, and snow cover is the strongest pro-drought impact and is, therefore, the main contributor to the generation of the drought. The impact of the snow cover and sea ice anomalies for June 1988 on the drought is significant only when combined with the SST and soil moisture anomalies.

Stein, Uri↗
NASA NTRS1999

Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies

Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.

Lau, William K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Historical Perspective of the 1998 Flood over Yangtze River

One of the main factors that might have caused the disastrous flood in China during 1998 summer is long-term variations that include a trend indicating increasing monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley. China's 160-station monthly rainfall anomaly for the summers of 1955-98 is analyzed for exploring such long-term variations. Singular value decomposition (SVD) between the summer rainfall and the global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reveals that the rainfall over Yangtze River Valley is closely related to global and regional SST variabilities at both interannual and interdecadal timescales. SVD1 mode links the above normal rainfall condition in central China to an El Nino-like SSTA distribution, varying on interannual timescale modified by a trend during the period. SVD3 mode links positive rainfall anomaly in Yangtze River Valley to the warm SST anomaly in the subtropical western Pacific, varying on interannual timescales modified by interdecadal timescales. This link tends to be stronger when the Nino3 area becomes colder and the western subtropical Pacific becomes warmer. The 1998 summer is a transition season when the 1997/98 El Nino event was in its decaying phase, and the SST in the Nino3 area emerged below normal anomaly while the subtropical western Pacific SST above normal. Thus, the first and third SVD modes become dominant in 1998 summer, favoring more Asian summer monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley.

Weng, H.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mechanism for Surface Warming in the Equatorial Pacific during 1994-95

Mechanisms controlling the variation in sea surface temperature warm event in the equatorial Pacific were investigated through ocean model simulations. In addition, the mechanisms of the climatological SST cycle were investigated. The dominant mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of SST vary significantly across the basin. In the western Pacific the annual cycle of SST is primarily in response to external heat flux. In the central basin the magnitude of zonal advection is comparable to that of the external heat flux. In the eastern basin the role of zonal advection is reduced and the vertical mixing is more important. In the easternmost equatorial Pacific the vertical entrainment contribution is as large as that of vertical diffusion. The model estimate of the vertical mixing contribution to the mixed layer heat budget compared well with estimates obtained by analysis of observations using the same diagnostic vertical mixing scheme. During 1994- 1995 the largest positive SST anomaly was observed in the mid-basin and was related to reduced latent heat flux due to weak surface winds. In the western basin the initial warming was related to enhanced external heating and reduced cooling effects of both vertical mixing and horizontal advection associated with weaker than usual wind stress. In the eastern Pacific where winds were not significantly anomalous throughout 1994-1995, only a moderate warm surface anomaly was detected. This is in contrast to strong El Nino events where the SST anomaly is largest in the eastern basin and, as shown by previous studies, the anomaly is due to zonal advection rather than anomalous surface heat flux. The end of the warm event was marked by cooling in July 1995 everywhere across the equatorial Pacific.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Spacebased Observations of the Oceanic Responses to Monsoons in South China Sea and Arabian Sea

A large percentage of the world's population and their agrarian economy must endure the vagaries of the monsoons over the tropical oceans between Africa and the Philippines. We know very little about the oceanic responses to changes of the monsoon in the South China Sea (SCS), which is under the influence of the East Asian Monsoon System, and the Arabian Sea (AS), which is dominated by the Indian Monsoon System; oceanic observations are sparse in both regions. Data from spaceborne microwave scatterometers and radiometers have been used to estimate the two major atmospheric forcing, momentum flux and latent heat flux (LHF), which change with the monsoon winds. Spaceborne sensors also observed the surface signatures of the oceanic response: SST and sea level changes (SLC. Sufficient durations of these data have recently become available to allow the meaningful studies of the annual cycles and interannual anomalies. In SCS, the winter monsoon is strong and steady but the summer monsoon is weak and has large intraseasonal fluctuations. In AS, the summer monsoon is much stronger than the winter monsoon. Significant correlations between LHF and SST tendency, and between curl of wind stress and SLC are found in both oceans. In the north SCS, winds are strong and dry, LHF is high, and ocean cooling is also large in fall; LHF is low and the ocean warms up in spring. In AS, LHF and SST tendency have a semi annual period; LHF is high in summer when the wind is strong and in winter when the wind is dry. Along the coast of Oman, the strong summer southwest monsoon causes intense upwelling, low SST and LHF in summer; such wind-driven SST changes is not as obvious along the Vietnam coast because of the weaker summer monsoon. The negative correlation between curl of wind stress and SLC found in the central basins of both SCS and AS agrees with a simple Ekman pumping scenario. Cyclonic winds drive surface divergence and upwelling in the ocean; the rise of the thermocline causes lower sea levels. Anticyclonic winds cause higher SLC. The exceptions (positive correlations) are found in the coastal regions in the north and the south of SCS, off the west coast of India between 5N and 10N, and along the coast of Somalia.

Xie, Xiao-Su↗
NASA NTRS2000

Estimating the Ocean Flow Field From Combined Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Surface Height Data

The primary focus of this project was on the estimation of the three-dimensional, absolute and time-evolving general circulation of the global ocean from a combined analysis of remotely sensed fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH). The synthesis of those two fields was performed with other relevant physical data, and appropriate dynamical ocean models with emphasis on constraining ocean general circulation models by a combination of both SST and SSH data. This effort is directly related to an attempt to describe the mechanisms which give rise to observed SST and its variability on seasonal and inter-annual timescales, its relation to ocean-atmosphere interaction, and the dynamical coupling between the ocean mixed layer and the deep interior ocean. This is one of the fundamental climate related questions being pursued currently under the CLIVAR Program. Because of the strong turbulent mixing associated with atmospheric fluxes of momentum, heat and freshwater through the sea surface, the ocean forms a shallow surface boundary layer, the mixed layer which is largely homogeneous in its constituents. The relation between the temperature of the remotely sensed "skin" and the bulk of the mixed layer is largely understood (Reynolds and Smith 1994; Emery et al., 1995). However, because the surface mixed layer is effectively decoupled from the underlying ocean dynamics, an interpretation of satellite SST observations in isolation and in direct use for dynamical studies is very difficult. As a result, the impact of SST data on the understanding of ocean variability.

Stammer, Detlef↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Effect of Ocean Currents on Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

We investigate regional and global-scale correlations between observed anomalies in sea surface temperature and height. A strong agreement between the two fields is found over a broad range of latitudes for different ocean basins. Both time-longitude plots and wavenumber-frequency spectra suggest an advective forcing of SST anomalies by a first-mode baroclinic wave field on spatial scales down to 400 km and time scales as short as 1 month. Even though the magnitude of the mean background temperature gradient is determining for the effectiveness of the forcing, there is no obvious seasonality that can be detected in the amplitudes of SST anomalies. Instead, individual wave signatures in the SST can in some cases be followed over periods of two years. The phase relationship between SST and SSH anomalies is dependent upon frequency and wavenumber and displays a clear decrease of the phase lag toward higher latitudes where the two fields come into phase at low frequencies. Estimates of the damping coefficient are larger than generally obtained for a purely atmospheric feedback. From a global frequency spectrum a damping time scale of 2-3 month was found. Regionally results are very variable and range from 1 month near strong currents to 10 month at low latitudes and in the sub-polar North Atlantic. Strong agreement is found between the first global EOF modes of 10 day averaged and spatially smoothed SST and SSH grids. The accompanying time series display low frequency oscillations in both fields.

Stammer, Detlef↗
NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evaporation/SST Sensitivity Over the Tropical Oceans During ENSO Events as Estimated from the da Silva, Young, Levitus Surface Marine Data Set

The da Silva, Young and Levitus Surface Marine Atlas, based on observations from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) Release 1, has been used to investigate the relationship between evaporation and sea-surface temperature (SST) over the global oceans. For the period 1950 to 1987 SST, surface latent heat flux, and other related variables have been filtered to minimize data uncertainties and to focus upon interannual variations associated with warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) ENSO events. Compositing procedures have enabled identification of systematic variations in latent heat fluxes accompanying these events and the relationship to spatial anomalies in ocean surface wind speed and humidity. The evaporation response associated with ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability is systematic in nature and composed of offsetting contributions from the surface wind and humidity variations. During warm events exceeding 1.0 S.D. delta SST, increases in the surface humidity deficit, delta(qs-qa), between the surface and 2m height dominate regions of positive SST anomalies and lead to increases in evaporation of almost 2 Wm (exp -2) at deltaSST = 0.23 K. Despite the increases in specific humidity, relative humidity decreases slightly in regions of elevated SSTs. For the most part, variations in wind speed are consistent with previous investigations. Weakening of the equatorial easterlies (and generation of westerlies) between 160 degrees E and 140 degrees W dominates during the early phases of warm events. Elevated wind speeds in adjacent subtropical regions and in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsequently develop too. The net contribution of these winds, which reflect adjustments in Hadley and Walker circulation components is toward reduced evaporation. Results for cold periods are approximately similar, but opposite in sign to warm events, though evidence of different temporal evolution is noted.

Robertson, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Estimating the Ocean Flow Field from Combined Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Surface Height Data

This project was part of a previous grant at MIT that was moved over to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) together with the principal investigator. The final report provided here is concerned only with the work performed at SIO since January 2000. The primary focus of this project was the study of the three-dimensional, absolute and time-evolving general circulation of the global ocean from a combined analysis of remotely sensed fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH). The synthesis of those two fields was performed with other relevant physical data, and appropriate dynamical ocean models with emphasis on constraining ocean general circulation models by a combination of both SST and SSH data. The central goal of the project was to improve our understanding and modeling of the relationship between the SST and its variability to internal ocean dynamics, and the overlying atmosphere, and to explore the relative roles of air-sea fluxes and internal ocean dynamics in establishing anomalies in SST on annual and longer time scales. An understanding of those problems will feed into the general discussion on how SST anomalies vary with time and the extend to which they interact with the atmosphere.

Stammer, Detlef↗
NASA NTRS2002

New Insights on Hydro-Climate Feedback Processes over the Tropical Ocean from TRMM

In this paper, we study hydro-climate feedback processes over the tropical oceans, by examining the relationships among large scale circulation and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager-Sea Surface Temperature (TMI-SST), and a range of TRMM rain products including rain rate, cloud liquid water, precipitable water, cloud types and areal coverage, and precipitation efficiency. Results show that for a warm event (1998), the 28C threshold of convective precipitation is quite well defined over the tropical oceans. However, for a cold event (1999), the SST threshold is less well defined, especially over the central and eastern Pacific cold tongue, where stratiform rain occurs at much lower than 28 C. Precipitation rates and cloud liquid water are found to be more closely related to the large scale vertical motion than to the underlying SST. While total columnar water vapor is more strongly dependent on SST. For a large domain, over the eastern Pacific, we find that the areal extent of the cloudy region tends to shrink as the SST increases. Examination of the relationship between cloud liquid water and rain rate suggests that the residence time of cloud liquid water tends to be shorter, associated with higher precipitation efficiency in a warmer climate. It is hypothesized that the reduction in cloudy area may be influenced both by the shift in large scale cloud patterns in response to changes in large scale forcings, and possible increase in the cloud liquid water conversion to rain water in a warmer environment. Results of numerical experiments with the Goddard cloud resolving model to test the hypothesis will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Infrared and Passive Microwave Radiometric Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Relationships to Atmospheric Forcing

The current generation of infrared (IR) and passive microwave (MW) satellite sensors provides highly complementary information for monitoring sea surface temperature (SST). On the one hand, infrared sensors provide high resolution and high accuracy but are obscured by clouds. Microwave sensors on the other hand, provide coverage through non-precipitating clouds but have coarser resolution and generally poorer accuracy. Assuming that the satellite SST measurements do not have spatially variable biases, they can be blended combining the merits of both SST products. These factors have motivated recent work in blending the MW and IR data in an attempt to produce high-accuracy SST products with improved coverage in regions with persistent clouds. The primary sources of retrieval uncertainty are, however, different for the two sensors. The main uncertainty in the MW retrievals lies in the effects of wind-induced surface roughness and foam on emissivity, whereas the IR retrievals are more sensitive to the atmospheric water vapor and aerosol content. Average nighttime differences between the products for the month periods of January 1999 and June 2000 are shown. These maps show complex spatial and temporal differences as indicated by the strong spatially coherent features in the product differences and the changes between seasons. Clearly such differences need to be understood and accounted for if the products are to be combined. The overall goals of this project are threefold: (1) To understand the sources of uncertainty in the IR and MW SST retrievals and to characterize the errors affecting the two types of retrieval as a fiction of atmospheric forcing; (2) To demonstrate how representative the temperature difference between the two satellite products is of Delta T; (3) To apply bias adjustments and to device a comprehensive treatment of the behavior of the temperature difference across the oceanic skin layer to determine the best method for blending thermal infrared and passive microwave measurements of SSTs.

Castro, Sandra L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Impacts of Air-Sea Interaction on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity

The influence of hurricane-ocean coupling on intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated through idealized numerical experiments using a coupled hurricane-ocean model. The focus is placed on how air-sea interaction affects TC tracks and intensity. It is found that the symmetric sea surface temperature (SST) cooling is primarily responsible for the TC weakening in the coupled experiments because the induced asymmetric circulation associated with the asymmetric SST anomalies is weak and shallow. The track difference between the coupled and fixed SST experiments is generally small because of the competing processes. One is associated with the modified TC asymmetries. The asymmetric SST anomalies - weaken the surface fluxes in the rear and enhance the fluxes in the front. As a result, the enhanced diabatic heating is located on the southern side for a westward-moving TC, tending to shift the TC southward. The symmetric SST anomalies weakens the TC intensity and thus the dymmetrization process, leading to more prominent TC asymmetries. The other is associated with the weakening of the beta drift resulting from the weakening of the TC outer strength. In the coupled experiment, the weakening of the beta drift leads to a more northward shift. By adjusting the vortex outer strength of the initial vortices, the beta drift can vary while the effect of air-sea interaction changes little. Two types of track differences simulated in the previous numerical studies are obtained.

Wu, Liguang↗
NASA NTRS2006

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very different from our current assessments, which were mainly based on the thermodynamic theory of tropical cyclone intensity.

Wu, Liguang↗
NASA NTRS2007

Low-Level Cloud Variability over the Equatorial Cold Tongue in Observations and Models

A fourth paper now in press is, Low-level cloud variability over the equatorial cold tongue in observations and models, by D. K. Mansbach and J. R. Norris (2007, J. Climate). This study examined cloud and meteorological observations from satellite, surface, and reanalysis datasets and fount that monthly anomalies in low-level cloud amount and near-surface temperature advection are strongly negatively correlated on the southern side of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. This inverse correlation occurs independently of relationships between cloud amount and sea surface temperature (SST) or lower tropospheric static stability (LTS) and the combination of advection plus SST or LTS explains significantly more interannual cloud variability in a multilinear regression than does SST or LTS alone. Warm anomalous advection occurs when the equatorial cold tongue is well defined and the southeastern Pacific trade winds bring relatively warm air over colder water. Ship meteorological reports and soundings show that the atmospheric surface layer becomes stratified under these conditions, thus inhibiting the upward mixing of moisture needed to sustain cloudiness against subsidence and entrainment drying. Cold anomalous advection primarily occurs when the equatorial cold tongue is weak or absent and the air-sea temperature difference is substantially negative. These conditions favor a more convective atmospheric boundary layer, greater cloud amount, and less frequent occurrence of clear sky. Examination of output from global climate models developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) indicates that both models generally fail to simulate the cloud-advection relationships observed on the northern and southern sides of the equatorial cold tongue. Although the GFDL atmosphere model does reproduce the expected signs of cloud-advection correlations when forced with prescribed historical SST variations, it does not consistently do so when coupled to an ocean model. The NCAR model has difficulty reproducing the observed correlations in both atmosphere-only and coupled versions. This suggests that boundary layer cloud parameterizations could be improved through better representation of the effects of advection over varying SST.

Mansbach, David K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Statistical Analyses of Satellite Cloud Object Data from CERES: Tropical Convective Cloud Objects During 1998 El Nino and Validation of the Fixed Anvil Temperature Hypothesis - Part II

Characteristics of tropical deep convective cloud objects observed over the tropical Pacific during January-August 1998 are examined using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission/ Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System single scanner footprint (SSF) data. These characteristics include the frequencies of occurrence and statistical distributions of cloud physical properties. Their variations with cloud-object size, sea surface temperature (SST), and satellite precessing cycle are analyzed in detail. A cloud object is defined as a contiguous patch of the Earth composed of satellite footprints within a single dominant cloud-system type. It is found that statistical distributions of cloud physical properties are significantly different among three size categories of cloud objects with equivalent diameters of 100 - 150 km (small), 150 - 300 km (medium), and > 300 km (large), respectively, except for the distributions of ice particle size. The distributions for the larger-size category of cloud objects are more skewed towards high SSTs, high cloud tops, low cloud-top temperature, large ice water path, high cloud optical depth, low outgoing longwave (LW) radiation, and high albedo than the smaller-size category. As SST varied from one satellite precessing cycle to another, the changes in macrophysical properties of cloud objects over the entire tropical Pacific were small for the large-size category of cloud objects, relative to those of the small- and medium-size categories. This result suggests that the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis of Hartmann and Larson may be valid for the large-size category. Combining with the result that a higher percentage of the large-size category of cloud objects occurs during higher SST subperiods, this implies that macrophysical properties of cloud objects would be less sensitive to further warming of the climate. On the other hand, when cloud objects are classified according to SSTs where large-scale dynamics plays important roles, statistical characteristics of cloud microphysical properties, optical depth and albedo are not sensitive to the SST, but those of cloud macrophysical properties are strongly dependent upon the SST. Frequency distributions of vertical velocity from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts model that is matched to each cloud object are used to interpret some of the findings in this study.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗