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NASA NTRS2014

Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Electric Propulsion Requirements and Mission Analysis Under NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Project

The In-Space Propulsion Technology Project (ISPT) is currently NASA's sole investment in electric propulsion technologies. This project is managed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) for the NASA Headquarters Science Mission Directorate (SMD). The objective of the electric propulsion project area is to develop near-term and midterm electric propulsion technologies to enhance or enable future NASA science missions while minimizing risk and cost to the end user. Systems analysis activities sponsored by ISPT seek to identify future mission applications in order to quantify mission requirements, as well as develop analytical capability in order to facilitate greater understanding and application of electric propulsion and other propulsion technologies in the ISPT portfolio. These analyses guide technology investments by informing decisions and defining metrics for technology development to meet identified mission requirements. This paper discusses the missions currently being studied for electric propulsion by the ISPT project, and presents the results of recent electric propulsion (EP) mission trades. Recent ISPT systems analysis activities include: an initiative to standardize life qualification methods for various electric propulsion systems in order to retire perceived risk to proposed EP missions; mission analysis to identify EP requirements from Discovery, New Frontiers, and Flagship classes of missions; and an evaluation of system requirements for radioisotope-powered electric propulsion. Progress and early results of these activities is discussed where available.

Dudzinski, Leonard a.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Enhanced project management tool

A system for managing a project that includes multiple tasks and a plurality of workers. Input information includes characterizations based upon a human model, a team model and a product model. Periodic reports, such as one or more of a monthly report, a task plan report, a schedule report, a budget report and a risk management report, are generated and made available for display or further analysis or collection into a customized report template. An extensible database allows searching for information based upon context and upon content. Seven different types of project risks are addressed, including non-availability of required skill mix of workers. The system can be configured to exchange data and results with corresponding portions of similar project analyses, and to provide user-specific access to specified information.

Maluf, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II - Building a Real-Time Predictive Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the uses of applied remote sensing analyses are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters III project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems in Ellicott City, Maryland. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, this term built on the predictive capability of the long-short term memory (LSTM) model created by the second term of this DEVELOP project to create a Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM). Enhancements to the model included the integration of both real-time and predicted weather products from the National Weather Service to increase predictive capacity. These weather products were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM as well as real-time radar products. The resultant flood risk model was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The model, upgraded to predict stage height up to 8 hours in advance, was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface. The project demonstrated the potential for integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing real-time decision-making.

Erika Munshi↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters III: Building a Real-Time Statistical Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

Erika Munshi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

International Space Station Acoustics – A Status Report

It is important to control acoustic noise aboard the International Space Station (ISS) to provide a satisfactory environment for voice communications, alarm audibility, and restful sleep, and to minimize the risk for hearing loss. Acoustic monitoring is an important part of the noise control process on ISS, providing critical data for trend analysis, noise exposure analysis, validation of acoustic analyses and predictions, and to provide strong evidence for ensuring crew health and safety, thus allowing Flight Certification. And since the primary noise sources on ISS include the environmental control and life support system’s air revitalization system (fans and airflow) and active thermal control system (pumps and water flow), acoustic monitoring will indicate changes in hardware noise emissions that may indicate system degradation or performance issues. This paper provides the current acoustic levels in the ISS modules and sleep stations, and is an update to the status presented in 2018. Since this last status report, noise levels have remained consistent, but issues with stalled fan noise and unexplained low frequency spectral peaks have caused some exceedances to requirements. Noise levels in the Russian Segment have either remained consistent or have been reduced slightly, except for the new Multipurpose Laboratory Module, which has some significant noise exceedances.

Christopher S Allen↗

NASA NTRS2024

Cognitive Performance in ISS Astronauts on 6-Month Low Earth Orbit Missions

Introduction: Current and future astronauts will endure prolonged exposure to spaceflight hazards and environmental stressors that could compromise cognitive functioning, yet cognitive performance in current missions to the International Space Station remains critically under-characterized. We systematically assessed cognitive performance across 10 cognitive domains in astronauts on 6-month missions to the ISS. Methods: Twenty-five professional astronauts were administered the Cognition Battery as part of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Research Program Standard Measures Cross-Cutting Project. Cognitive performance data were collected at five mission phases: pre-flight, early flight, late flight, early post-flight, and late post-flight. We calculated speed and accuracy scores, corrected for practice effects, and derived z-scores to represent deviations in cognitive performance across mission phases from the sample’s mean baseline (i.e., pre-flight) performance. Linear mixed models with random subject intercepts and pairwise comparisons examined the relationships between mission phase and cognitive performance. Results: Cognitive performance was generally stable over time with some differences observed across mission phases for specific subtests. There was slowed performance observed in early flight on tasks of processing speed, visual working memory, and sustained attention. We observed a decrease in risk-taking propensity during late flight and post-flight mission phases. Beyond examining group differences, we inspected scores that represented a significant shift from the sample’s mean baseline score, revealing that 11.8% of all flight and post-flight scores were at or below 1.5 standard deviations below the sample’s baseline mean. Finally, exploratory analyses yielded no clear pattern of associations between cognitive performance and either sleep or ratings of alertness. Conclusions: There was no evidence for a systematic decline in cognitive performance for astronauts on a 6-month missions to the ISS. Some differences were observed for specific subtests at specific mission phases, suggesting that processing speed, visual working memory, sustained attention, and risk-taking propensity may be the cognitive domains most susceptible to change in Low Earth Orbit for high performing, professional astronauts. We provide descriptive statistics of pre-flight cognitive performance from 25 astronauts, the largest published preliminary normative database of its kind to date, to help identify significant performance decrements in future samples.

Data curation↗

NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Long-Term Health Metric Development Effort

INTRODUCTION Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a methodology applied when high-stakes decisions need to be made about complex systems. PRA often uses risk minimization to aid decision making, such as when establishing vehicle requirements or resource allocations. The NASA Human System Risk Board (HSRB) maintains the human spaceflight risk postures, many of which have in-mission medical outcomes, but the full risk set also includes performance and Long-Term Health (LTH) outcomes. An effort is underway to determine the dependencies between LTH risk outcomes and mission characteristics and to identify metrics for quantifying LTH outcomes. The LTH metrics will be incorporated into future PRA tools currently under development to support crew health and performance decision making. LONG-TERM HEALTH (LTH) RISK LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. LTH outcomes include the time and interventions needed for the astronaut to return to preflight physiological states after experiencing spaceflight hazards and recovery from any in-mission medical events that persist into the post-flight timeframe. It includes chronic complications that may arise due to experiencing in-flight medical conditions or injuries and medical conditions that occur later in life with a higher probability of occurrence or with more severity because of their spaceflight exposure. Finally, LTH outcomes can also include a reduction in life expectancy due to spaceflight exposures. Eighteen of the HSRB risks contain an LTH component, each with a unique incidence rate and consequence severity. ON-GOING LTH METRIC DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS Based on guidance from a stakeholder workshop held on June 1, 2023, only LTH outcomes with causes tied to spaceflight experience that are significantly different from normal healthy aging and which can be affected by changes in in-mission resources are targeted for inclusion within the PRA modeling efforts. Current on-going efforts include a sensitivity analysis of potential in-flight medical conditions to determine which conditions may persist into post-flight and how the consequences may be affected by in-mission medical resources. Also underway is determination of differences in the time for a return to preflight physiological baselines when in-flight countermeasures are available versus when they are not. Analyses performed with publicly available astronaut data and collaborations with the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health team are being designed to understand which LTH outcomes differ significantly from natural healthy aging. Information exchanges are also occurring with LTH risk custodians to understand how they quantify outcomes. FUTURE PLANS Risk characteristics will be determined for each LTH risk that meets our inclusion criteria and the dependencies of their outcomes to in-mission resources and mission characteristics will be established. The individual risks will be integrated together into one or more high level LTH metrics for inclusion in the PRA tool, so that LTH risks can be considered along with in-mission risks during crew health and performance system decision support trade studies.

B. E. Lewandowski↗

NASA NTRS2011

Cancer Risk Estimates from Space Flight Estimated Using Yields of Chromosome Damage in Astronaut's Blood Lymphocytes

To date, cytogenetic damage has been assessed in blood lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. Chromosome damage was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridization whole chromosome analysis techniques. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their preflight yield, and biodosimetry estimates were within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Follow up analyses have been performed on most of the astronauts at intervals ranging from around 6 months to many years after flight, and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long-duration missions have so far been assessed in four individuals. Chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes have been validated as biomarkers of cancer risk and cytogenetic damage can therefore be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by individual crewmembers after their respective missions. Traditional risk assessment models are based on epidemiological data obtained on Earth in cohorts exposed predominantly to acute doses of gamma-rays, and the extrapolation to the space environment is highly problematic, involving very large uncertainties. Cytogenetic damage could play a key role in reducing uncertainty in risk estimation because it is incurred directly in the space environment, using specimens from the astronauts themselves. Relative cancer risks were estimated from the biodosimetry data using the quantitative approach derived from the European Study Group on Cytogenetic Biomarkers and Health database. Astronauts were categorized into low, medium, or high tertiles according to their yield of chromosome damage. Age adjusted tertile rankings were used to estimate cancer risk and results were compared with values obtained using traditional modeling approaches. Individual tertile rankings increased after space flight and analysis of follow up samples indicated that the tertile rankings remained in the high category for more than 50% of the individuals assessed so far. Crewmembers that shift and remain in the high category are projected to have increased life-time cancer risk.

George, Kerry A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Mars Sample Return without Landing on the Surface

Many in the science community want a Mars sample return in the near future, with the expectation that it will provide in-depth information, significantly beyond what we know from remote sensing, limited in-situ measurements, and work with Martian meteorites. Certainly, return of samples from the Moon resulted in major advances in our understanding of both the geologic history of our planetary satellite, and its relationship to Earth. Similar scientific insights would be expected from analyses of samples returned from Mars. Unfortunately, Mars-lander sample-return missions have been delayed, for the reason that NASA needs more time to review the complexities and risks associated with that type of mission. A traditional sample return entails a complex transfer-chain, including landing, collection, launch, rendezvous, and the return to Earth, as well as an evaluation of potential biological hazards involved with bringing pristine Martian organics to Earth. There are, however, means of returning scientifically-rich samples from Mars without landing on the surface. This paper discusses an approach for returning intact samples of surface dust, based on known instrument technology, without using an actual Martian lander.

Jurewicz, A. J. G.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Rocket Propellants Engine Design/Operations/Validation

Lockheed Martin Astronautics Operations (LMA) was competitively awarded a contract May 21, 2001 for next generation launch system architecture definition and technology maturation. The Second Generation Launch Vehicle Program objectives include reducing the technical and programmatic risk of proceeding to full scale development of the system by establishing requirements for the next generation launch system and maturing critical technologies needed by the system. LMA will conduct analyses and trades to optimize the architecture ETO elements including configuration, conceptual designs, and preliminary operations definition. To fully understand the engine and propellant trades were conducted by LMA to yield the optimized architecture system from the operability, reliability, safety, and cost perspectives. A government/industry team addressed the required trade studies, the parameters and weighting factors, and the most critical trades were addressed. This report summarizes the participation of JCM Consulting, Inc. in the propellant trade study.

Monk, Jan C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Post-Landing Orion Crew Survival in Warm Ocean Areas: A Case Study in Iterative Environmental Design

The Orion crew module (CM) is being designed to perform survivable land and water landings. There are many issues associated with post-landing crew survival. In general, the most challenging of the realistic Orion landing scenarios from an environmental control standpoint is the off-nominal water landing. Available power and other consumables will be very limited after landing, and it may not be possible to provide full environmental control within the crew cabin for very long after splashdown. Given the bulk and thermal insulation characteristics of the crew-worn pressure suits, landing in a warm tropical ocean area would pose a risk to crew survival from elevated core body temperatures, if for some reason the crewmembers were not able to remove their suits and/or exit the vehicle. This paper summarizes the analyses performed and conclusions reached regarding post-landing crew survival following a water landing, from the standpoint of the crew s core body temperatures.

Rains, George E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BioSentinel ISS mission: Analysis of ISS Flight Data and Lessons Learned

As we prepare for a future with a human presence on the Moon, Mars, and beyond, the need for countermeasures to protect astronauts against deep space radiation is ever pressing. However, our understanding of how life operates in the space environment, especially past the protection of the Van Allen radiation belts, is critically limited. BioSentinel, a biological CubeSat, aims to further investigate the effects of deep space ionizing radiation, utilizing the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to examine the cell’s DNA damage response. The yeast wild type and a rad51Δ mutant strain defective for DNA damage repair will be monitored via the redox dye alamarBlue and a 3-color LED detection system. Selected as a secondary payload on Artemis I, BioSentinel will be the first deep space biological experiment in a half-century and the first biological CubeSat or free-flyer to ever reach a heliocentric orbit. Notably, BioSentinel is the only biological CubeSat to include an ISS control study in addition to a ground control. Comparisons between the ground, ISS, and free-flyer experiments will allow us to isolate the effects of deep space radiation from those of microgravity. The ISS study also provides a unique platform to conduct important technological and biological testing of BioSentinel’s instrumentation in preparation for the deep space mission. In this work, we use a series of data processing tools and scripts to analyze ISS flight data as well as samples exposed to simulated space radiation at Brookhaven National Laboratory, specifically looking at cell growth, metabolic activity, and duplication rates based on optical absorbance and alamarBlue kinetics. These analyses provide a crucial set of controls and a framework for analyzing and interpreting future data sets from the free-flyer, helping us gain further insight into the health risks astronauts will face when exposed to deep space radiation.

Kylie Lauren Lo-Wen Akiyama↗

NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

A methodology is presented for the computational simulation of primitive variable uncertainties, and attention is given to the simulation of specific aerospace components. Specific examples treated encompass a probabilistic material behavior model, as well as static, dynamic, and fatigue/damage analyses of a turbine blade in a mistuned bladed rotor in the SSME turbopumps. An account is given of the use of the NESSES probabilistic FEM analysis CFD code.

Shah, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Testing of hypotheses about altitude decompression sickness by statistical analyses

This communication extends a statistical analysis of forced-descent decompression sickness at altitude in exercising subjects (J Appl Physiol 1994; 76:2726-2734) with a data subset having an additional explanatory variable, rate of ascent. The original explanatory variables for risk-function analysis were environmental pressure of the altitude, duration of exposure, and duration of pure-O2 breathing before exposure; the best fit was consistent with the idea that instantaneous risk increases linearly as altitude exposure continues. Use of the new explanatory variable improved the fit of the smaller data subset, as indicated by log likelihood. Also, with ascent rate accounted for, replacement of the term for linear accrual of instantaneous risk by a term for rise and then decay made a highly significant improvement upon the original model (log likelihood increased by 37 log units). The authors conclude that a more representative data set and removal of the variability attributable to ascent rate allowed the rise-and-decay mechanism, which is expected from theory and observations, to become manifest.

NASA Center JSC↗

NASA NTRS2006

Aerocapture Systems Analysis for a Neptune Mission

A Systems Analysis was completed to determine the feasibility, benefit and risk of an aeroshell aerocapture system for Neptune and to identify technology gaps and technology performance goals. The systems analysis includes the following disciplines: science; mission design; aeroshell configuration; interplanetary navigation analyses; atmosphere modeling; computational fluid dynamics for aerodynamic performance and aeroheating environment; stability analyses; guidance development; atmospheric flight simulation; thermal protection system design; mass properties; structures; spacecraft design and packaging; and mass sensitivities. Results show that aerocapture is feasible and performance is adequate for the Neptune mission. Aerocapture can deliver 1.4 times more mass to Neptune orbit than an all-propulsive system for the same launch vehicle and results in a 3-4 year reduction in trip time compared to all-propulsive systems. Enabling technologies for this mission include TPS manufacturing; and aerothermodynamic methods for determining coupled 3-D convection, radiation and ablation aeroheating rates and loads.

Lockwood, Mary Kae↗

NASA NTRS2006

In-Space Propulsion Technology Program Solar Electric Propulsion Technologies

NASA's In-space Propulsion (ISP) Technology Project is developing new propulsion technologies that can enable or enhance near and mid-term NASA science missions. The Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) technology area has been investing in NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT), the High Voltage Hall Accelerator (HiVHAC), lightweight reliable feed systems, wear testing, and thruster modeling. These investments are specifically targeted to increase planetary science payload capability, expand the envelope of planetary science destinations, and significantly reduce the travel times, risk, and cost of NASA planetary science missions. Status and expected capabilities of the SEP technologies are reviewed in this presentation. The SEP technology area supports numerous mission studies and architecture analyses to determine which investments will give the greatest benefit to science missions. Both the NEXT and HiVHAC thrusters have modified their nominal throttle tables to better utilize diminished solar array power on outbound missions. A new life extension mechanism has been implemented on HiVHAC to increase the throughput capability on low-power systems to meet the needs of cost-capped missions. Lower complexity, more reliable feed system components common to all electric propulsion (EP) systems are being developed. ISP has also leveraged commercial investments to further validate new ion and hall thruster technologies and to potentially lower EP mission costs.

Dankanich, John W.↗