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DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

This paper introduces an approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose a measure termed “ecological resilience through adaptation,” specifically tailored to noisy, forced systems that undergo physiological adaptation in the face of stressful environmental changes. Randomness plays a key role, accounting for model uncertainty and the inherent variability in the dynamical response among components of biological systems. Our measure of resilience is rooted in the probabilistic description of states within these systems and is defined in terms of the dynamics of the ensemble average of a model-specific observable quantifying success or well-being. Our approach utilizes stochastic linear response theory to compute how the expected success of a system, originally in statistical equilibrium, dynamically changes in response to a environmental perturbation and a subsequent adaptation. Importantly, the resulting mathematical derivations allow for the estimation of resilience in terms of ensemble averages of simulated or experimental data. Finally, through a simple but clear conceptual example, we illustrate how our resilience measure can be interpreted and compared to other existing frameworks in the literature. The methodology is general but inspired by applications in plant systems, with the potential for broader application to complex biological processes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Resilient Near Real-Time Analysis Workflows in Fusion Energy Science

Nuclear fusion holds the promise of an endless source of energy. Several research experiments across the world and joint modeling and simulation efforts between the nuclear physics and high performance computing communities are actively preparing the operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). Both experimental reactors and their simulated counterparts generate data that must be analyzed quickly and in a resilient way to support decision making for the configuration of subsequent runs or prevent a catastrophic failure. However, the cost if the traditional techniques used to improve the resilience of analysis workflows, i.e., replicating datasets and computational tasks, becomes prohibitive with explosion of the volume of data produced by modern instruments and simulations. Therefore, we advocate in this paper for an alternate approach based on data reduction and data streaming. The rationale is that by allowing for a reasonable, controlled, and guaranteed loss of accuracy it becomes possible to transfer smaller amounts of data, shorten the execution time of analysis workflows, and lower the cost of replication to increase resilience. We develop our research and development roadmap towards resilient near real-time analysis workflows in fusion energy science and present early results showing that data streaming and data reduction is a promising way to speed up the execution and improve the resilience of analysis workflows.

Suter, Fred↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Framework to Quantify Power Grid Resilience

The quantification of an operating power grid’s resilience is highly significant today, given its criticality as an enabler of other infrastructures, complexity, and the threat it faces due to a wide range of detrimental events, from extreme climate to cyber attacks. Currently, there exist no standardized definitions and metrics for measuring the resilience of an operating grid. In this paper, we introduce a novel resilience quantification framework and demonstrate a method to measure the flexibility towards topological/structural changes due to potential failures in the power grid to assess operational resilience. We start with the state estimation data from a large utility and use the graph analysis methods and power flow simulation tools to compute the identified resilience parameters.

Yoginath, Srikanth↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the Use of Tidal Power for Enhancing Power System Resilience with Networked Microgrids

The resilience of a power system to withstand a high-impact low-frequency event is a growing concern, especially in coastal communities that tend to be densely populated and very prone to extreme events such as storms and flooding. In such areas, marine renewable energy can be integrated with the existing renewable energy sources to improve generation diversity and power system resiliency. Using networked microgrids as an example, this paper proposes an empirical study to investigate the impact of marine resources, in particular, tidal energy on the power system resiliency. A set of quantitative metrics with intuitive physical interpretations is used to evaluate the resiliency of a power system that is enhanced with distributed generation in the form of rooftop photovoltaic systems and tidal generators. The effectiveness of resource diversification on the power system resiliency is demonstrated through simulations on a model of a real-world coastal distribution feeder located in Sequim, Washington.

Peerzada, Aaqib A.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Resilient Cyber Infrastructure for the Minimum Wind Curtailment Remedial Control Scheme

Integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) has been significantly increasing in the electric power grid. One of the predominant renewable energy sources, wind energy, possess a significant challenge for grid operations, due to its intermittency, uncertainty and variability. In changing operating conditions with wind uncertainty, part of wind may need to be curtailed for the safe utilization of the transmission system. In order to minimize the wind power curtailment and to keep the power flow on a transmission line under limits, a cyber resilient Distributed Remedial Action Scheme (DRAS) is developed in this paper. The RAS is formulated as an optimization problem, considering the real power flow constraints of the transmission lines and given wind variability. In this paper, DRAS is developed to operate even with failures in the computing nodes to make it cyber-resilient. Distributed simplex algorithm is used for optimization in the distributed RAS. The DRAS is implemented in a decentralized platform called Resilient Information Architecture Platform for Smart Grid (RIAPS) to enable cyber resiliency of DRAS. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through offline simulations of the New England 39 bus system and online simulations of IEEE 14 bus test system. In conclusion, a cyber physical test bed utilizing Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS), Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs), and BeagleBones has been used for the online simulation and validation of the developed cyber-resilient RAS.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier structure for risk assessment and risk management. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated in the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience is still lacking. Our proposed structure consists of tiers by which analysts can scale a resilience assessment and associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. We use an application of water allocation decisions in the Platte River Basin, Nebraska, USA to illustrate this approach.

Sustainability, natural resources management, disa↗
DOE OSTI2017

Partial differential equations preconditioner resilient to soft and hard faults

We present a domain-decomposition-based preconditioner for the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs) that is resilient to both soft and hard faults. The algorithm reformulates the PDE as a sampling problem, followed by a solution update through data manipulation that is resilient to both soft and hard faults. This reformulation allows us to recast the problem as a set of independent tasks, and exploit data locality to reduce global communication. We discuss two different parallel implementations: (a) a single program multiple data (SPMD) version based on a one-to-one mapping between subdomain and MPI processes responsible for both state and computation; and (b) an asynchronous server–client implementation where all state information is held by the servers and clients are designed solely as computational units. We present a scalability comparison of both implementations under nominal conditions, showing efficiency within ~80% for up to 12,000 cores. We present a resilience analysis under different fault scenarios based on the server–client implementation. This framework provides resiliency to hard faults such that if a client crashes, it stops asking for work, and the servers simply distribute the work among all of the other clients alive. Erroneous subdomain solves (e.g. due to soft faults) appear as corrupted data, which is either rejected if that causes a task to fail, or is seamlessly filtered out during the regression stage through a suitable noise model. Three different types of faults are modeled: hard faults modeling nodes (or clients) crashing; soft faults occurring during the communication of the tasks between server and clients; and soft faults occurring during task execution. We demonstrate the resiliency of the approach for a 2D elliptic PDE, and explore the effect of the faults at various failure rates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Systems Measures of Water Distribution System Resilience

Resilience is a concept that is being used increasingly to refer to the capacity of infrastructure systems to be prepared for and able to respond effectively and rapidly to hazardous events. In Section 2 of this report, drinking water hazards, resilience literature, and available resilience tools are presented. Broader definitions, attributes and methods for measuring resilience are presented in Section 3. In Section 4, quantitative systems performance measures for water distribution systems are presented. Finally, in Section 5, the performance measures and their relevance to measuring the resilience of water systems to hazards is discussed along with needed improvements to water distribution system modeling tools.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Smart DG Hub Resilient Solar Project Final Report

Hurricanes, unstable fossil fuel supplies and increased energy loads have revealed the vulnerability of America’s electric grids. Renewable energy has emerged as a viable option; however in order for this sector to reach its full potential it needs to be paired with storage. For example, all of the solar installations in New York City in 2014 were wired to automatically shut down during grid outages for safety reasons and lacked battery backup or other means to function during outages. Pairing solar with batteries can provide critical power needs and reduce dependency on delivered fuel. Additionally, resilient solar systems can also provide benefits outside of emergencies such as utility bill savings and grid support services. Solar+Storage needed a pathway through regulatory, policy and financial hurdles, some of which are unique to urban environments. Sustainable CUNY of the City University of New York (CUNY) formed the Smart Distributed Generation (DG) Hub to develop a strategic pathway to a resilient distributed energy system that integrates storage into resiliency planning and provide support to the grid on peak power days. Through the Smart DG Hub Resilient Solar Project, with support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as well as the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, the New York Power Authority and private funding, Sustainable CUNY worked with project partners - including the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Meister Consultant Group (now Cadmus), subject matter experts at utility companies, and authorities having jurisdiction - to develop a roadmap for the greater deployment of solar+storage as well as a toolkit of resources. Ultimately, in addition to the completed deliverables of multiple resources, the project established a baseline of the current policy, financial, and market landscape, and an understanding of which key areas would require further actions. The DG Hub’s collaborative platform and subject matter expertise gained through this project led directly to a new award from the NYS Energy Research & Development Authority to continue CUNY’s work in targeted areas including energy storage permitting and stakeholder education, similar to the way DOE’s prior support had sowed the initial seeds for the growth of the solar market in NYC, to the NYS market. Finally, the Resilient Solar Project helped inform the New York City (NYC) administration, leading to a significant policy development that included Mayor Bill de Blasio setting a city-wide storage goal of 100 MW by 2020, the first of any city in the country.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cyber Resilience as a Deterrence Strategy

This paper was written by the Cyber Deterrence and Resilience Strategic Initiative in partnership with the Resilience Energy Systems Strategic Initiative. Resilience and deterrence are both part of a comprehensive cyber strategy where tactics may overlap across defense, resilience, deterrence, and other strategic spaces. This paper explores how building resiliency in cyberspace can not only serve to strengthen the defender's posture and capabilities in a general sense but also deter adversaries from attacking.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planning Considerations for Energy Storage in Resilience Applications. Outcomes from the NELHA Energy Storage Conference's Policy and Regulatory Workshop

This report presents the proceedings and lessons learned at a conference workshop that discussed the role of energy storage in supporting electric system resilience, which took place at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority’s (NELHA) Conference on Energy Storage Trends and Opportunities in December 2018. Staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) made two presentations on the topic of resilience: the first covering a conceptual framework for incorporating resilience into resource planning processes, and the second covering a tool developed for microgrid planning that can assist in identifying resource mixes that will meet site-specific resilience needs. Throughout the presentations, presenters and workshop participants discussed the obstacles to improving electric system resilience and potential solutions for overcoming them. Following the workshop, the authors conducted additional research to further contextualize the topics discussed at the workshop and to frame the resulting recommendations for future engagement on this subject by the Department of Energy and the national laboratories.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience Service Framework Using Transactive Systems Valuation Methodology

Recent outage events have spurred national and international interest in improving grid resilience. Actions to make the grid more resilient must be valued against their costs and benefits. This is the goal of this report. We explore a resilience valuation framework, where the services procured by the utility are arranged such that the values associated with them are pinpointed. This is demonstrated by utilizing various diagrams developed in Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Transactive System Program, called the Transactive Systems Valuation Methodology (TSVM). We show that TSVM can be utilized to guide traditional valuation methodologies such as integrated resource planning so that resilience considerations can be embedded. This report demonstrates this using a three-step procedure: (1) a use case is developed to define functional requirements, (2) value identification of the utility and the actors with which it interacts (both inside and outside its internal functions), and (3) value tracking of activity performed by actors interacting with the utility while services are procured to enable a resilient grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

ADROC: An Emulation Experimentation Platform for Advancing Resilience of Control Systems

Cyberattacks against industrial control systems have increased over the last decade, making it more critical than ever for system owners to have the tools necessary to understand the cyber resilience of their systems. However, existing tools are often qualitative, subject matter expertise-driven, or highly generic, making thorough, data-driven cyber resilience analysis challenging. The ADROC project proposed to develop a platform to enable efficient, repeatable, data-driven cyber resilience analysis for cyber-physical systems. The approach consists of two phases of modeling: computationally efficient math modeling and high-fidelity emulations. The first phase allows for scenarios of low concern to be quickly filtered out, conserving resources available for analysis. The second phase supports more detailed scenario analysis, which is more predictive of real-world systems. Data extracted from experiments is used to calculate cyber resilience metrics. ADROC then ranks scenarios based on these metrics, enabling prioritization of system resources to improve cyber resilience.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operator-theoretic Resilience Calculations (ORC)

This project developed operational metrics to characterize the resilience of a dynamic network in real-time from time-series data by proposing: a) Resilience ratio b) Recovery energy. Resilience analysis considers the controllability and observability and provides a real-time under- standing on resilience without creating/simulating them. The report focuses on the application of resilience metrics on the HYPERSIM data and insights obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

LDRD23-0184: Resilience and Hazard Risk Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI)

Recent examples provide a significant concern for the resilience of the U.S. electric grid and represent a need for enhanced decision-making to address an increasingly wide range of complex system interactions and potential consequences. In response, this LDRD project produced a proof-of-concept evaluation called the Resilience and Hazard Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI) methodology as an agile and flexible analytic framework capable of addressing multiple, diverse threats to desired electric grid performance. After empirically grounding needs for the future of U.S. electric grid resilience, this project employed the systems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) to develop a systems engineering risk model. The results of a completed feasibility study of a notional high voltage transmission system demonstrate an improved ability to incorporate both spatial (e.g., geographically distributed) and temporal (e.g., dynamic and time-dependent) elements of security risk to the gird. The success of this LDRD project provides the foundation for further evolution of the systems engineering risk model for the grid; derivation of quantitative approaches to evaluate risk and resilience performance; facilitation of agile experimenting and grid sensitivity to a range of vulnerabilities; and development of tools to assist decision-makers in enhancing U.S. electrical grid resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Case Studies in Leveraging Performance Contracts for Resilience Projects

The resilience of federal facilities has become increasingly important among lawmakers, agency leadership, and the American public as high impact natural hazards occur more frequently over time. Resilience is broadly defined as the ability of a federal facility to withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from disruptions to maintain critical functions. The Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) was codified to facilitate the strengthening of federal energy and water efficiency and resilience. Performance contracting is one of the mechanisms through which federal agencies can finance projects at their facilities, but resilience improvement measures do not always result in utility cost savings, which are the primary driver behind performance contracts. This report provides example cases where performance contracts, specifically energy savings performance contracts (ESPC) or utility energy service contracts (UESCs), were used to implement a resilience measure at a federal facility.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗