Reliability Achievement Through the Technical Risk Assessment
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Use of Raman Spectroscopy and Delta Volume Growth from Void Collapse to Assess Overwrap Stress Gradients Compromising the Reliability of Large Kevlar/Epoxy COPVs
Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are frequently used for storing pressurized gases aboard spacecraft and aircraft when weight saving is desirable compared to all-metal versions. Failure mechanisms in fibrous COPVs and variability in lifetime can be very different from their metallic counterparts; in the former, catastrophic stress-rupture can occur with virtually no warning, whereas in latter, a leak before burst design philosophy can be implemented. Qualification and certification typically requires only one burst test on a production sample (possibly after several pressure cycles) and the vessel need only meet a design burst strength (the maximum operating pressure divided by a knockdown factor). Typically there is no requirement to assess variability in burst strength or lifetime, much less determine production and materials processing parameters important to control of such variability. Characterizing such variability and its source is crucial to models for calculating required reliability over a given lifetime (e.g. R = 0.9999 for 15 years). In this paper we present a case study of how lack of control of certain process parameters in COPV manufacturing can result in variations among vessels and between production runs that can greatly increase uncertainty and reduce reliability. The vessels considered are 40-inch ( NASA Glenn Research center, Cleveland, OH, 44135 29,500 in3 ) spherical COPVs with a 0.74 in. thick Kevlar49/epoxy overwrap and with a titanium liner of which 34 were originally produced. Two burst tests were eventually performed that unexpectedly differed by almost 5%, and were 10% lower than anticipated from burst tests on 26-inch sister vessels similar in every detail. A major observation from measurements made during proof testing (autofrettage) of the 40-inch vessels was that permanent volume growth from liner yielding varied by a factor of more than two (150 in3 to 360 in3 ), which suggests large differences in the residual stress gradient through their overwraps. This resulted in large uncertainty in true fiber stress ratio (fiber stress at operating pressure divided by fiber stress at burst) which governs lifetime. The vessels were originally designed with tight safety margins, so it became crucial to develop a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique to directly measure the overwrap residual stress state of each vessel, and to identify those vessels at highest risk of having poor reliability. This paper describes a Raman Spectroscopy technique for measuring certain patterns of fluctuation in fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface (where all but one wrap is exposed at certain locations) that are shown to directly correlate to increased fiber stress ratios and reduced reliability.
Kezirian, Michael T.↗
Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.
Buchbinder, Ben↗
NASA Applications and Lessons Learned in Reliability Engineering
Since the Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, communities across NASA have been developing and extensively using quantitative reliability and risk assessment methods in their decision making process. This paper discusses several reliability engineering applications that NASA has used over the year to support the design, development, and operation of critical space flight hardware. Specifically, the paper discusses several reliability engineering applications used by NASA in areas such as risk management, inspection policies, components upgrades, reliability growth, integrated failure analysis, and physics based probabilistic engineering analysis. In each of these areas, the paper provides a brief discussion of a case study to demonstrate the value added and the criticality of reliability engineering in supporting NASA project and program decisions to fly safely. Examples of these case studies discussed are reliability based life limit extension of Shuttle Space Main Engine (SSME) hardware, Reliability based inspection policies for Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) turbine disc, probabilistic structural engineering analysis for reliability prediction of the SSME alternate turbo-pump development, impact of ET foam reliability on the Space Shuttle System risk, and reliability based Space Shuttle upgrade for safety. Special attention is given in this paper to the physics based probabilistic engineering analysis applications and their critical role in evaluating the reliability of NASA development hardware including their potential use in a research and technology development environment.
Safie, Fayssal M.↗
Integration of tools for the Design and Assessment of High-Performance, Highly Reliable Computing Systems (DAHPHRS), phase 1
Systems for Space Defense Initiative (SDI) space applications typically require both high performance and very high reliability. These requirements present the systems engineer evaluating such systems with the extremely difficult problem of conducting performance and reliability trade-offs over large design spaces. A controlled development process supported by appropriate automated tools must be used to assure that the system will meet design objectives. This report describes an investigation of methods, tools, and techniques necessary to support performance and reliability modeling for SDI systems development. Models of the JPL Hypercubes, the Encore Multimax, and the C.S. Draper Lab Fault-Tolerant Parallel Processor (FTPP) parallel-computing architectures using candidate SDI weapons-to-target assignment algorithms as workloads were built and analyzed as a means of identifying the necessary system models, how the models interact, and what experiments and analyses should be performed. As a result of this effort, weaknesses in the existing methods and tools were revealed and capabilities that will be required for both individual tools and an integrated toolset were identified.
Scheper, C.↗
Reliability Achievement Through the Technical Risk Assessment
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Technical Risk Assessment↗
A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Analysis of Spacecraft Deployments
Deployable subsystems are essential to mission success of most spacecraft. These subsystems enable critical functions including power, communications and thermal control. The loss of any of these functions will generally result in loss of the mission. These subsystems and their components often consist of unique designs and applications for which various standardized data sources are not applicable for estimating reliability and for assessing risks. In this study, a two stage sequential Bayesian framework for reliability estimation of spacecraft deployment was developed for this purpose. This process was then applied to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Sunshield subsystem, a unique design intended for thermal control of the Optical Telescope Element. Initially, detailed studies of NASA deployment history, "heritage information", were conducted, extending over 45 years of spacecraft launches. This information was then coupled to a non-informative prior and a binomial likelihood function to create a posterior distribution for deployments of various subsystems uSing Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling. Select distributions were then coupled to a subsequent analysis, using test data and anomaly occurrences on successive ground test deployments of scale model test articles of JWST hardware, to update the NASA heritage data. This allowed for a realistic prediction for the reliability of the complex Sunshield deployment, with credibility limits, within this two stage Bayesian framework.
Evans, John W.↗
[MaRS Project]
The Space Exploration Division of the Safety and Mission Assurances Directorate is responsible for reducing the risk to Human Space Flight Programs by providing system safety, reliability, and risk analysis. The Risk & Reliability Analysis branch plays a part in this by utilizing Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) tools to identify possible types of failure and effective solutions. A continuous effort of this branch is MaRS, or Mass and Reliability System, a tool that was the focus of this internship. Future long duration space missions will have to find a balance between the mass and reliability of their spare parts. They will be unable take spares of everything and will have to determine what is most likely to require maintenance and spares. Currently there is no database that combines mass and reliability data of low level space-grade components. MaRS aims to be the first database to do this. The data in MaRS will be based on the hardware flown on the International Space Stations (ISS). The components on the ISS have a long history and are well documented, making them the perfect source. Currently, MaRS is a functioning excel workbook database; the backend is complete and only requires optimization. MaRS has been populated with all the assemblies and their components that are used on the ISS; the failures of these components are updated regularly. This project was a continuation on the efforts of previous intern groups. Once complete, R&M engineers working on future space flight missions will be able to quickly access failure and mass data on assemblies and components, allowing them to make important decisions and tradeoffs.
Aruljothi, Arunvenkatesh↗
Reliability of Electronics for Cryogenic Space Applications Being Assessed
Many future NASA missions will require electronic parts and circuits that can operate reliably and efficiently in extreme temperature environments below typical device specification temperatures. These missions include the Mars Exploration Laboratory, the James Webb Space Telescope, the Europa Orbiter, surface rovers, and deep-space probes. In addition to NASA, the aerospace and commercial sectors require cryogenic electronics in applications that include advanced satellites, military hardware, medical instrumentation, magnetic levitation, superconducting energy management and distribution, particle confinement and acceleration, and arctic missions. Besides surviving hostile space environments, electronics capable of low-temperature operation would enhance circuit performance, improve system reliability, extend lifetime, and reduce development and launch costs. In addition, cryogenic electronics are expected to result in more efficient systems than those at room temperature.
Patterson, Richard L.↗
Probabilistic Simulation of the Human Factor in Structural Reliability
The formal approach described herein computationally simulates the probable ranges of uncertainties for the human factor in probabilistic assessments of structural reliability. Human factors such as marital status, professional status, home life, job satisfaction, work load, and health are studied by using a multifactor interaction equation (MFIE) model to demonstrate the approach. Parametric studies in conjunction with judgment are used to select reasonable values for the participating factors (primitive variables). Subsequently performed probabilistic sensitivity studies assess the suitability of the MFIE as well as the validity of the whole approach. Results show that uncertainties range from 5 to 30 percent for the most optimistic case, assuming 100 percent for no error (perfect performance).
Chamis, Christos C.↗
Assessing information transfer in full mission flight simulations
Considerable attention must be given to the important topic of aircrew situation awareness in any discussion of aviation safety and flight deck design. Reliable means of assessing this important aspect of crew behavior without simultaneously interfering with the behavior are difficult to develop. Unobtrusive measurement of crew situation awareness is particularly important in the conduct of full mission simulations where considerable effort and cost is expended to achieve a high degree of operational fidelity. An unobtrusive method of assessing situational awareness is described here which employs a topical analysis of intra-crew communications. The communications were taken from videotapes of crew behavior prior to, during, and following an encounter with a microburst/windshear event. The simulation scenario re-created an actual encounter with an event during an approach into Denver Stapleton Airport. The analyses were conducted on twelve experienced airline crews with the objective of determining the effect on situation awareness of uplinking ground-based information of the crew during the approach. The topical analysis of crew communication was conducted on all references to weather or weather-related topics. The general weather topic was further divided into weather subtopical references such as surface winds, windshear, precipitation, etc., thereby allowing for an assessment of the relative frequency of subtopic reference during the scenario. Reliable differences were found between the relative frequency of subtopic references when comparing the communications of crews receiving a cockpit display of ground-based information to the communications of a control group. The findings support the utility of this method of assessing situation awareness and information value in full mission simulations. A limiting factor in the use of this measure is that crews vary in the amount of intra-crew communications that may take place due to individual differences and other factors associated with crew coordination. This factor must be taken into consideration when employing this measure. Viewgraphs are given.
Lee, Alfred T.↗
Reliability database development for use with an object-oriented fault tree evaluation program
A description is given of the development of a fault-tree analysis method using object-oriented programming. In addition, the authors discuss the programs that have been developed or are under development to connect a fault-tree analysis routine to a reliability database. To assess the performance of the routines, a relational database simulating one of the nuclear power industry databases has been constructed. For a realistic assessment of the results of this project, the use of one of existing nuclear power reliability databases is planned.
Heger, A. Sharif↗
Design Development Test and Evaluation (DDT and E) Considerations for Safe and Reliable Human Rated Spacecraft Systems
A team directed by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) collected methodologies for how best to develop safe and reliable human rated systems and how to identify the drivers that provide the basis for assessing safety and reliability. The team also identified techniques, methodologies, and best practices to assure that NASA can develop safe and reliable human rated systems. The results are drawn from a wide variety of resources, from experts involved with the space program since its inception to the best-practices espoused in contemporary engineering doctrine. This report focuses on safety and reliability considerations and does not duplicate or update any existing references. Neither does it intend to replace existing standards and policy.
Miller, James↗
Design Development Test and Evaluation (DDT and E) Considerations for Safe and Reliable Human Rated Spacecraft Systems
A team directed by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) collected methodologies for how best to develop safe and reliable human rated systems and how to identify the drivers that provide the basis for assessing safety and reliability. The team also identified techniques, methodologies, and best practices to assure that NASA can develop safe and reliable human rated systems. The results are drawn from a wide variety of resources, from experts involved with the space program since its inception to the best-practices espoused in contemporary engineering doctrine. This report focuses on safety and reliability considerations and does not duplicate or update any existing references. Neither does it intend to replace existing standards and policy.
Miller, James↗
Reliability of Solder Materials (Sn-Pb and Pb-Free) for Deep Space Missions
The purpose of this study is to assess the experimental reliability results of miniaturized passive components (01005, 0201, 0402, 0603, 0805, and 1206) assembled using surface mounting processes with tin-lead (Sn-Pb) and lead-free (Pb-Free) solder alloys under extreme temperature deep space environments.
extreme temperatures↗
Flight control electronics reliability/maintenance study
Collection and analysis of data are reported that concern the reliability and maintenance experience of flight control system electronics currently in use on passenger carrying jet aircraft. Two airlines B-747 airplane fleets were analyzed to assess the component reliability, system functional reliability, and achieved availability of the CAT II configuration flight control system. Also assessed were the costs generated by this system in the categories of spare equipment, schedule irregularity, and line and shop maintenance. The results indicate that although there is a marked difference in the geographic location and route pattern between the airlines studied, there is a close similarity in the reliability and the maintenance costs associated with the flight control electronics.
Dade, W. W.↗
Wafer level reliability for high-performance VLSI design
As very large scale integration architecture requires higher package density, reliability of these devices has approached a critical level. Previous processing techniques allowed a large window for varying reliability. However, as scaling and higher current densities push reliability to its limit, tighter control and instant feedback becomes critical. Several test structures developed to monitor reliability at the wafer level are described. For example, a test structure was developed to monitor metal integrity in seconds as opposed to weeks or months for conventional testing. Another structure monitors mobile ion contamination at critical steps in the process. Thus the reliability jeopardy can be assessed during fabrication preventing defective devices from ever being placed in the field. Most importantly, the reliability can be assessed on each wafer as opposed to an occasional sample.
Root, Bryan J.↗
Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless if the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the NASA PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle Software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data, respectively. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. We determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.
Novack, Steven↗