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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Theoretical consideration of the energy resolution in planar HPGe detectors for low energy X-rays

In this work, theoretical consideration of the processes in planar High Purity Ge (HPGe) detectors for low energy X-rays using the random stochastic processes formalism was carried out. Using the random stochastic processes formalism, the generating function of the processes of X-rays registration in a planar HPGe detector was derived. The power serial expansions of the detector amplitude and the variance in terms of the inverse bias voltage were derived. The coefficients of these expansions allow determining the Fano factor, electron mobility lifetime product, nonuniformity of the trap density, and other characteristics of the semiconductor material. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2015

Parametric models for samples of random functions

A new class of parametric models, referred to as sample parametric models, is developed for random elements that match sample rather than the first two moments and/or other global properties of these elements. The models can be used to characterize, e.g., material properties at small scale in which case their samples represent microstructures of material specimens selected at random from a population. The samples of the proposed models are elements of finite-dimensional vector spaces spanned by samples, eigenfunctions of Karhunen–Loève (KL) representations, or modes of singular value decompositions (SVDs). The implementation of sample parametric models requires knowledge of the probability laws of target random elements. Numerical examples including stochastic processes and random fields are used to demonstrate the construction of sample parametric models, assess their accuracy, and illustrate how these models can be used to solve efficiently stochastic equations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression for prediction of random fields

We propose a new multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach for prediction of random fields based on observations of surrogate models or hierarchies of surrogate models. Our method builds upon recent work on recursive Bayesian techniques, in particular recursive co-kriging, and extends it to vector-valued fields and various types of covariances, including separable and non-separable ones. The framework we propose is general and can be used to perform uncertainty propagation and quantification in model-based simulations, multi-fidelity data fusion, and surrogate-based optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed recursive GPR techniques through various examples. Specifically, we study the stochastic Burgers equation and the stochastic Oberbeck–Boussinesq equations describing natural convection within a square enclosure. In both cases we find that the standard deviation of the Gaussian predictors as well as the absolute errors relative to benchmark stochastic solutions are very small, suggesting that the proposed multi-fidelity GPR approaches can yield highly accurate results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗
DOE OSTI2014

Long-run growth rate in a random multiplicative model

We consider the long-run growth rate of the average value of a random multiplicative process x{sub i+1} = a{sub i}x{sub i} where the multipliers a{sub i}=1+ρexp(σW{sub i}₋1/2 σ²t{sub i}) have Markovian dependence given by the exponential of a standard Brownian motion W{sub i}. The average value (x{sub n}) is given by the grand partition function of a one-dimensional lattice gas with two-body linear attractive interactions placed in a uniform field. We study the Lyapunov exponent λ=lim{sub n→∞}1/n log(x{sub n}), at fixed β=1/2 σ²t{sub n}n, and show that it is given by the equation of state of the lattice gas in thermodynamical equilibrium. The Lyapunov exponent has discontinuous partial derivatives along a curve in the (ρ, β) plane ending at a critical point (ρ{sub C}, β{sub C}) which is related to a phase transition in the equivalent lattice gas. Using the equivalence of the lattice gas with a bosonic system, we obtain the exact solution for the equation of state in the thermodynamical limit n → ∞.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1973

Robot vision.

The work reported had been undertaken to develop hardware that would guide an automatic vehicle in the exploration of the surface of Mars, recognize objects, and report the findings to earth. Approaches for automatically determining the range and shape of objects are discussed, giving attention to the automatic comparison of one scan line of the left with one scan line of the right TV image. Methods of mapping binocular space into match space are considered together with the use of a model in match space, rules for processing random-dot stereograms, the elimination of spurious matches, random-square stereograms, questions of the processing of a real scene, and aspects of range accuracy. Methods of computation for extracting other features are also discussed along with stereo TV cameras and approaches for reconstructing the appearance of a scene.

Sutro, L. L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operation Optimization using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Jamming and Tiling in Aggregation of Rectangles

We study a random aggregation process involving rectangular clusters. In each aggregation event, two rectangles are chosen at random and if they have a compatible side, either vertical or horizontal, they merge along that side to form a larger rectangle. Starting with N identical squares, this elementary event is repeated until the system reaches a jammed state where each rectangle has two unique sides. The average number of frozen rectangles scales as N α in the large-N limit. The growth exponent α = 0.229 ± 0.002 characterizes statistical properties of the jammed state and the time-dependent evolution. We also study an aggregation process where rectangles are embedded in a plane and interact only with nearest neighbors. In the jammed state, neighboring rectangles are incompatible, and these frozen rectangles form a tiling of the two-dimensional domain. Here in this case, the final number of rectangles scales linearly with system size.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗
NASA NTRS1985

Simulations of the mean solar magnetic field during sunspot cycle 21

Regarding new bipolar magnetic regions as sources of flux, the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during 1976-1984 was computed and the corresponding evolution of the mean line-of-sight field as seen from earth was derived. A good, but imperfect, agreement was obtained between the observed mean field and the field computed for a nominal choice of flux transport parameters. The response of the computed mean field to variations in the transport parameters and the source properties was determined. The results suggest that the mean-field evolution is a random-walk process with dissipation. New eruptions of flux produce the random walk, and together differential rotation, meridional flow, and diffusion provide the dissipation. The net effect of each new source depends on its strength and orientation and on the time elapsed before the next eruption.

Sheeley, N. R., Jr.↗