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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Port Graham Community Building Biomass Heating Design Project

Native Village of Port Graham completed preconstruction activities to prepare for construction and operations of a cord wood biomass heating system to five or more community buildings in Port Graham, Alaska. Project Description Native Village of Port Graham (NVPG) completed preconstruction activities that pave the way towards reduced local energy costs through the construction and operations of a cord wood biomass heating system. NVPG plans include installation of a GARN WHS 3200 Boiler that uses cord wood as fuel source. Implementation of the 700,000 Btu per hour output biomass community building heat utility would heat 5-community buildings in Port Graham, Alaska. Heating system is estimated to displace 85% of the heating fuel oil or 5365 gallons of fuel on an annual basis with an estimated peak output of 600,000 Btu per hour. Estimated savings is $15,112.00 per year. The construction cost estimate made to install the new biomass boiler system is estimated $251,693.47 with an additional Boiler Building expansion cost estimated at $97,828.40. Total installed cost is estimated $349,521.87. The WHS 3200 Boiler would be placed inside a new structure at the old community Water Plant Building site that is controlled by NVPG. Design of the new biomass heat plant and hot water loop system was completed by Richmond Engineering, NVPG contractor for the project. A hot water heat loop system running off the boiler is designed to be placed underground on lands controlled by NVPG and stubbed to feed hot water to existing base board heating system in the following community buildings: 1. Anesia Anahonak Moonin Health and Dental Clinic 2. Native Village of Port Graham offices 3. Port Graham Public Safety Building/Fire Department 4. Port Graham Corporation Office Building which also houses the Port Graham Museum and Head Start Center 5. North Pacific Rim Housing Authority Workshop/Old Fire Hall Existing community buildings fuel oil heating systems are to be retro-fitted to accommodate hot water from the proposed wood-burning GARN Boiler, once installed, and rely on the existing fuel oil-fired hot water heating equipment for backup. The boiler would use an estimated 125 bone dry tons, equivalent to 100 cords, woody biomass feedstock obtained from local lands per year. Project would use local labor as described in the Port Graham Biomass Project, report completed by Chena Power, Inc. and Winters and Associates as part of the in-kind support to the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) project for work on a project for State of Alaska’s Alaska Energy Authority (AEA). NVPG will likely initiate operations of the biomass boiler system even though several operational variations were studied. Obtaining the fuel source could be done by contractors, PGVC employees, or NVPG employees. Feeding the system would likely be done by NVPG employees. A majority of the buildings heated would be owned by NVPG. The PGVC office would be heated as well as the Old Fire Hall used as a workshop and storage area for North Pacific Rim Housing Authority. One methodology studied to charge for cost of utilizing the community building biomass system would use a percentage of use of hot water generated by the biomass hot water system based on past heating oil usage in relation to all buildings heated by biomass hot water. The method is better described in the Port Graham Biomass Project report. Fuel source agreements have been drafted to enter into agreements with area landowners. One Native allotment owner has asked Chugachmiut Forestry to begin a timber sale process to sell timber off her lands, specifically wind thrown timber that was determined to be of sufficient quantity to supply to the proposed biomass heating system for approximately 5-years. On NVPG’s behalf, Chugachmiut has presented to PGVC three different documents, attached, that could lead to a sale of woody biomass fuel for the project for up to 25-years, the expected life of the project. PGVC has signed a letter of intent to negotiate a sale of woody biomass material April 30, 2015. Chugachmiut Forestry has conducted two different field forest measurements of Native allotment lands and PGVC forest and timber lands. Lands deemed road accessible for biomass harvest were analyzed for this project. Forestry then conducted three different analyses and developed two reports to determine forest biomass on a tons per acre basis in addition to timber volume measurements taken for forest management purposes. Permits required were limited. For the biomass building, the Kenai Peninsula Borough did not require a permit. State of Alaska, Department of Public Safety, Division of Fire and Life Safety requires a plan review for fire and life safety requirements called an application for Fire and Life Safety Plan Review that would require a registered design professional to sign the document. State of Alaska State Forest Practices Act is required to be followed for any timber sale or harvest. This Act also requires consultation with Alaska Department of Fish and Game when operations are in close proximity or cross anadromous waters. Native allotment lands require following U. S. Bureau of Indian Affairs timber sale contracting process and approval.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: October 1, 2013, through December 31, 2014

On April 24, 1957, the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC, now the Department of Energy [DOE]) conducted the Project 57 safety experiment in western Emigrant Valley north east of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS, formerly the Nevada Test Site) on lands withdrawn by the Department of Defense (DoD) for the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). The test was undertaken to develop (1) a means of estimating plutonium distribution resulting from a nonnuclear detonation; (2) biomedical evaluation techniques for use in plutonium-laden environments; (3) methods of surface decontamination; and (4) instruments and field procedures for prompt estimation of alpha contamination (Shreve, 1958). Although the test did not result in the fission of nuclear materials, it did disseminate plutonium across the land surface. Following the experiment, the AEC fenced the contaminated area and returned control of the surrounding land to the DoD. Various radiological surveys have been performed in the area and in 2007, the DOE expanded the demarked contamination area by posting signs 200 to 400 feet (60 to 120 meters) outside of the original fence. Plutonium in soil is thought to attach preferentially to smaller particles. Therefore, redistribution of soil particulates by wind (dust) is the mechanism most likely to transport plutonium beyond the boundary of the Project 57 contamination area. In 2011, DRI installed two instrumentation towers to measure radiological, meteorological, and dust conditions. The monitoring activity was implemented to determine if radionuclide contamination was detectable in samples of airborne dust and characterize meteorological and environmental parameters that influence dust transport. Collected data also permits comparison of radiological conditions at the Project 57 monitoring stations to conditions observed at Community Environmental Monitoring Program (CEMP) stations around the NTTR. Biweekly samples of airborne particulates are submitted for laboratory assessment of gross alpha and gross beta radioactivity and for determination of gamma-emitting radionuclides. Annual average gross alpha values at the Project 57 monitoring stations are in the same range as the highest two values reported for the CEMP stations surrounding the NTTR. Annual average gross beta values at the Project 57 monitoring stations are slightly higher than the lowest value reported for the CEMP stations surrounding the NTTR. Gamma spectroscopy analyses on samples collected from the Project 57 stations identified only naturally occurring radionuclides. No manmade radionuclides were detected. Thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) indicated that the average annual radioactivity dose at the monitoring stations is higher than the dose determined at surrounding CEMP stations but approximately half of the estimated national average dose received by the general public as a result of exposure to natural sources. The TLDs at the Project 57 monitoring stations are exposed to both natural sources (terrestrial and cosmic) and radioactive releases from the Project 57 contamination area. These comparisons show that the gross alpha, gross beta, and gamma spectroscopy levels at the Project 57 monitoring stations are similar to levels observed at the CEMP stations but that the average annual dose rate is higher than at the CEMP stations. Winds in excess of approximately 15 mph begin to generate dust movement by saltation (migration of sand at the ground surface) or direct suspension in the air. Saltated sand, PM10 (inhalable) dust, and PM2.5 (fine particulate dust) exhibit an approximately exponential increase with increasing wind speed. The greatest concentrations of dust occur for winds exceeding 20 mph. During the reporting period, winds in excess of 20 mph occurred approximately 1.6 percent of the time. Preliminary assessment of individual wind events suggests that dust generation is highly variable likely because of the influence of other meteorological and environmental parameters. Although winds sufficient to generate significant amounts of dust occur at the Project 57 site, they are infrequent and of short duration. Additionally, the potential for wind transport of dust is dependent on other parameters whose influence have not yet been assessed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Missouri Soybean Association Biodiesel Demonstration Project: Final Report

The Missouri Soybean Association (MSA) and the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) partnered together to implement the MSA Biodiesel Demonstration project under a United States Department of Energy (DOE) grant. The goal of this project was to provide decision makers and fleet managers with information that could lead to the increased use of domestically produced renewable fuels and could reduce the harmful impacts of school bus diesel exhaust on children. This project was initiated in September 2004 and completed in April 2011. The project carried out a broad range of activities organized under four areas: 1. Petroleum and related industry education program for fuel suppliers; 2. Fleet evaluation program using B20 with a Missouri school district; 3. Outreach and awareness campaign for school district fleet managers; and 4. Support of ongoing B20 Fleet Evaluation Team (FET) data collection efforts with existing school districts. Technical support to the biodiesel industry was also provided through NBB’s Troubleshooting Hotline. The hotline program was established in 2008 to troubleshoot fuel quality issues and help facilitate smooth implementation of the RFS and is described in greater detail under Milestone A.1 - Promote Instruction and Guidance on Best Practices. As a result of this project’s efforts, MSA and NBB were able to successfully reach out to and support a broad spectrum of biodiesel users in Missouri and New England. The MSA Biodiesel Demonstration was funded through a FY2004 Renewable Energy Resources Congressional earmark. The initial focus of this project was to test and evaluate biodiesel blends coupled with diesel oxidation catalysts as an emissions reduction technology for school bus fleets in the United States. The project was designed to verify emissions reductions using Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protocols, then document – with school bus fleet experience – the viability of utilizing B20 blends. The fleet experience was expected to support ongoing industry efforts to collect existing data and to increase awareness and knowledge among school district fleet managers. However, three years into the project, the original intent of the engine verification was no longer deemed by equipment manufacturers to be of sufficient economic interest to enter into a partnership. In response, MSA requested a project extension and re-scope to eliminate the aftermarket equipment verification and replace it with a petroleum education program. The revised project maintained four task areas with the following modifications. The first component was directed at increasing national compliance with newly initiated state level fuel blend mandates through a distributor education program. Component two was modified to eliminate the verification element and, instead, document operational data from biodiesel use in a district school bus fleet. Components three and four were unchanged and maintained their purpose of expanding upon the existing knowledge base of biodiesel use in school bus fleets.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Scholarship for Nuclear Communications and Methods for Evaluation of Nuclear Project Acceptability

This project aims to go beyond effective communication in understanding how to design nuclear enterprise projects that will gain stakeholder acceptability. Much of what we are studying is generally applicable to controversial projects, and we expect our results to be of broad value beyond the nuclear arena. Acceptability is more than effective communication; it also requires varying degrees of engagement with a disparate number of stakeholder groups. In the nuclear enterprise, previous attempts have been well designed physically (i.e., technologically sound), but have floundered by being insensitive concerning acceptance. Though effective communication is a necessary, but insufficient, condition for such success, there is a lack of scholarship regarding how to gain stakeholder acceptance for new controversial projects, including nuclear ones. Our work is building a model for use in assessing the performance of a project in the area of acceptability. In the nuclear-social nexus, gaining acceptance requires a clear understanding of factors regarded as being important by the many stakeholders that are common to new nuclear project (many of whom hold an effective veto power). Projects tend to become socially controversial when public beliefs, expert opinion and decision-maker understanding are misaligned. As such, stakeholder acceptance is hypothesized as both an ongoing process and an initial project design parameter comprised of complex, social, cognitive and technical components. Controversial projects may be defined as aspects of modern technologies that some people question, or are cautious about. They could range from genetic modifications, biological hazards, effects of chemical agents, nuclear radiation or hydraulic fracturing operations. We intend that our work will result in a model likely to be valuable for refining project design and implementation to increase the knowledge needed for successful management of stakeholder relationships.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

SDN Project

The SDN Project completed on time and on budget and successfully accomplished 100% of the scope of work outlined in the original Statement of Project Objective (SOPO). The SDN Project formed an alliance between Ameren Corporation, University of Illinois Urbana- Champaign (UIUC), Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL), and Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. (SEL). The objective of the SDN Project is to address Topic Area of Interest 2: Sustain critical energy delivery functions while responding to a cyber-intrusion under Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-0000797. The goal of the project is to design and commercially release technology that provides a method to sustain critical energy delivery functions during a cyber intrusion and to do this control system operators need the ability to quickly identify and isolate the affected network areas, and re-route critical information and control flows around. The objective of the SDN Project is to develop a Flow Controller that monitors, configures, and maintains the safe, reliable network traffic flows of all the local area networks (LANs) on a control system in the Energy sector. The SDN team identified the core attributes of a control system and produced an SDN flow controller that has the same core attributes enabling networks to be designed, configured and deployed that maximize the whitelisted, deny-bydefault and purpose built networks. This project researched, developed and commercially released technology that: Enables all field networks be to configured and monitored as if they are a single asset to be protected; Enables greatly improved and even precalculated response actions to reliability and cyber events; Supports pre-configured localized response actions tailored to provide resilience against failures and centralized response to cyber-attacks that improve network reliability and availability; Architecturally enables the right subject matter experts, who are usually the information technology and operational technology engineers, to be the ones centrally administering the technology and responding to events; Simplifies network configuration, improving deterministic Ethernet transport times, and providing instant visualization on where the communication circuits are and how all circuits are impacted when changes (e.g., configuration changes, failures or intrusions) happen, allowing operators to minimize downtime; and Improves the ability to identify deviations in network behavior resulting in detection and analysis of potential cyber intrusions and faster response times Results: This project has forever changed the way critical infrastructure networks are designed, secured, deployed and maintained. The cybersecurity and performance advantages achieved are significant, simply put traditional networking has been obsoleted while the team maintained Ethernet interoperability avoiding any legacy concerns. The team commercially released technology that accomplished all the cybersecurity goals outlined in the SOPO and completed it by executing the project management plan approved in the initial contract. The resulting Energy sector SDN flow controller model number is SEL-5056 and can be freely downloaded from the www.SELinc.com website. This technology not only improves the cybersecurity of control systems but has measured results that it improves the performance and reliability of the control system as well. This means the system owners can confidently apply it to their systems knowing that it will, “first do no harm” but actually improve the system as well. Success of the project is best measured by the sales and deployment of the technology. System owners in industrial, electric, defense, and oil and gas only months after commercial release have approved plans for deployment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Project acceleration through the application of innovation on the pile fuel storage pond at Sellafield - 15060

The Pile Fuel Storage Pond (PFSP) at Sellafield was built between 1948 and 1950 to receive, store and de-can fuel and isotopes from the Windscale Piles. Since closure of the Piles in 1957, the facility has been used to store materials from the UK nuclear programme. The pond has built up a large inventory of miscellaneous items and pond sludge, which combine to create a challenging nuclear clean up job. To enable clean up, the operator required a capability to encapsulate the pond sludge for long term storage, the operator initiated a project. Applying conventional project delivery processes resulted in an unacceptable cost and schedule for provision of this capability. To address this issue, the project to deliver the plant was restarted with a study to look at the selection of process routing for the sludge. In the decision making processes for this study increased weighting was given to innovative re-use of existing facilities and speed of deployment. Innovation was also applied to the study process to enable early option selection where this was clearly of benefit. This focus on innovation produced the first significant improvement for the project with the scheme selected offering a 30% reduction in baseline cost and schedule. The focus on schedule acceleration was carried through into the early design phases of the new project. In the concept stage process simplification was achieved through functional analysis of the plant combined with a drive to utilise technology and learning from other industries. This resulted in a plant concept which could be delivered more quickly than the baseline schedule with a high level of confidence. Once the main benefits associated with innovation of the plant concept had been achieved focus was switched to how the project was to be delivered. The project looked at where delivery in the nuclear environment tended to be complex and time consuming. Focusing on these areas and learning from other industries led to significant innovation in delivery processes, with particular success in the rigorous application of value transition point analysis and minimisation of onsite works. The combination of innovative design and delivery processes led to a further reduction in the project baseline cost and schedule. Application of engineering innovation, focused on engineering simplification and challenge of the engineering norms, reduced the cost of the project by English Pound 50 m (65%) and reduced the schedule for delivery by over 3 years. The project has been recognised as an exemplar of how to apply the 'decommissioning mind-set', which is the cultural change being targeted by Sellafield Ltd to deliver the decommissioning of its high hazard facilities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

The D and D of Nuclear Facilities: a Systemic Approach for Project Organization and Monitoring - 18099

The Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) of Licensed Nuclear facilities takes place under circumstances which make it a very complex field. On the one hand, more and more facilities of widely varying types are concerned, and many D and D projects are currently running or planned. A nuclear facility's life cycle is often very long and the building may be modified or impacted by incidents during its operation. These changes need to be known and taken into account for the D and D plans, in order to ensure safety at all times. In addition, the numerous stakeholders involved in a project express needs which impose many requirements. These encompass various points of view, and data from different detail levels must be managed to satisfactorily meet them. On the other hand, legacy data (including records, plans etc.) is a recurring issue for D and D projects. The quality and availability of relevant data regarding the different phases of the nuclear facility lifetime may be insufficient, for instance due to the lack of traceability practices in the past. The uncertainty level is not always specified and explained, old documents can be damaged and are not necessarily digitized, etc. It is therefore particularly important to define the relevant type of raw data to be collected and traced for D and D projects as early as possible. In this context, CEA (Commissariat a l'energie Atomique et aux energies Alternatives) has been analyzing past D and D projects for many years. The goal is to facilitate reproducibility by generalizing best practices and promoting efficient organizational rules and technical solutions. A method is currently being studied to help project managers to prepare specifications for future D and D operations and improve both the efficiency and the relevance of the decommissioning strategy throughout each project, depending on the expected quality of its end-state. This method first consists in formalizing and specifying the entire set of requirements to be taken into consideration, e.g. technical, operational, logistical, regulatory, financial, organizational, safety and security, human, ethical, or, naturally, environmental aspects. Second, based on these requirements, it will enable the project team to structure, check, and then to demonstrate the coherence and feasibility of the project from both the technological and organizational points of view. Lastly, the method will enable the evaluation of the various possible solutions for the management of dismantling products, for instance, regarding the waste outlets: direct disposal or interim storage. To conclude, the method should permit a constant re-evaluation of the D and D strategy depending on the possible evolution of the stakeholders' requirements, and thus it should optimize the monitoring of D and D projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

How Successful Site Preparation Work at a Large, Commercial, Hazardous and Toxic Waste Site Can Benefit DOE Cleanup Projects - 18111

Jacobs recently completed site preparation work supporting the private commercial development of a world-scale petrochemical complex (an 'ethylene cracker' to produce the primary building block for many forms of plastic) in Monaca, Pennsylvania - the first major U.S. project of its kind outside the Gulf Coast region in 20 years and one of the largest (multi-billion dollar) construction projects in the eastern U.S. Prior to beginning construction on the petrochemical complex, the site's previous large, industrial zinc smelter operations had to be decommissioned and the facilities had to be removed. During the previous 80 years, the smelting operations at the site were used to produce zinc, lead, mercury, and sulfuric acid (a by-product of smelting). The smelting operations left landfills and industrial soil over a large area that had to be removed or closed under regulatory review to allow development across the 81,000 m{sup 2} (200-acre) industrial site located near a major river and local populations. In order to meet Pennsylvania's site-specific Land Recycling Program (commonly referred to as 'Act 2') legislative requirements, the direct contact pathway for landfill soil and slag was removed or mitigated. The site preparation work, or 'Early Works', started in January 2015. As the selected Early Works overall Engineering, Procurement, and Construction Management (EPCM) contractor, Jacobs performed the front end engineering and design. Subsequently, Jacobs had overall responsibility for procurement, construction management, health and safety, quality, security, and environmental services for the entire site and all contractors. The Early Works project included eight separate work scope packages: 1) Site Preparation, 2) Site Development, 3) Marine Works, 4) Rail Works, 5) Road Works and Offsite Utilities, 6) Site Security, 7) Construction Facilities, and 8) High Voltage Line Relocation. The Early Works scope was successfully completed in 2017. The challenges faced by this privately funded commercial project have much in common with large DOE and government construction projects. This paper explores lessons learned from the project and compares how project challenges were addressed on this private commercial project with those anticipated at large DOE/government construction and remediation sites, particularly those in the areas of Safety, Logistics, Infrastructure, and Stakeholder Involvement. The identification of best practices demonstrated on this successful project are shared for the purpose of bringing outside, commercial perspectives to ongoing or planned DOE/government construction projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

International Training to Promote Successful Environmental Remediation Projects - 18636

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supports the efforts of its Member States to manage their nuclear and radiological liabilities, including radioactive waste management, decommissioning of facilities, and remediation of contaminated sites. As part of a project addressing Constraints in Decommissioning and Environmental Remediation (the CIDER Project), the IAEA is developing initiatives to further support capacity development specifically to promote implementation of safe, appropriate, and cost-effective environmental remediation (ER) projects. The IAEA sponsors numerous initiatives to provide its Member States training on important topics related to ER. It has become clear in recent years, however, that the existing training should be augmented with more in-depth training to provide for the development of the critical expertise needed to address significant ER challenges. ER projects typically are very complex, requiring the integration of numerous scientific and engineering disciplines, along with effective project planning and management. There are many examples of ER projects where considerable work has been completed, qualified technical staff are available, and adequate funding has been obtained, yet actual progress towards a final solution has been limited. In such cases, it appears that a key barrier is the lack of capacity to develop strategies, make fully informed decisions, plan for and manage activities, and implement successful ER actions. In light of the above, the IAEA has placed a priority on capacity development across the broad spectrum of ER project implementation. Efforts are underway to develop a new training program to develop capacity at the institutional and individual levels to equip course graduates to effectively integrate all areas of expertise in the planning and execution of ER projects. The target audience includes decision-makers; project managers, planners, and implementers; and academics. The core capabilities to be developed via this program include knowledge and skills related to: (1) radiation issues and radionuclide behavior; (2) health and safety protection principles and requirements; (3) identification, evaluation, and selection of ER technologies and approaches; (4) ongoing, constructive dialogue with stakeholders; (5) project planning, management, and communication; (6) cost estimation and funding development; and (7) implementation of appropriate site monitoring activities. The IAEA is collaborating with multiple organizations to develop and implement this training program, to leverage existing training programs and materials, and to coordinate on the development of sustainable training solutions. This paper will present the status of this initiative and work accomplished thus far. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Waste Management Project Success - Regulatory Assurance Systems - 20118

Waste management (WM) and remediation projects are essential within a restorative environmental culture. Despite years of experience, challenges and obstacles associated with efficient and effective WM project execution remain. Although some obstacles are project specific, a common challenge is navigating the regulatory landscape from planning through execution, particularly with first of a kind (FOAK) and first in a while (FIAW) projects. The absence of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy places significant hurdles in the path of project success. To clear a path for the successful execution of increasingly complex WM projects, this paper focuses on development of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy and implementation plan that effectively engages stakeholders, agencies, and performers to produce project plans that fully and cost effectively integrate applicable regulatory requirements. The most reliable way to align regulatory processes and decisions needed for mission success is through a regulatory assurance system. This system establishes a healthy interface with regulatory decision makers, to work in a collaborative manner, to create a common vision for regulatory decisions on an agreed upon schedule. A regulatory assurance system consists of several elements. Although the mission may vary from cleanup to site closure to nuclear component production, the elements of a regulatory assurance system remain essentially constant and must include: 1) identifying a common vision or end state, 2) developing a long-term, integrated strategy and schedule, 3) establishing a regulatory partnering team consisting of key decision-makers, 4) regular and frequent communication with decision-makers, 5) ensuring consistent surveillance for early identification of issues and changes that may impact the project, 6) quick resolution of emerging issues to prevent schedule impact, 7) identifying core compliance functions, 8) periodically assessing progress of the project as it relates to regulatory assurance and, 9) providing constructive feedback to improve the process. A regulatory assurance system provides a living, multi-faceted approach to planning, visioning, communicating and tracking to avoid surprises and ensure smooth and timely progress to the project. The overall success measures will be whether the system produces common sense regulatory decisions supporting the vision on time without appeal. Effective regulatory frameworks rarely happen on their own. Balanced, common-sense regulatory decisions stem from teams that are trained to work together to achieve shared goals. In this paper, particular attention is placed on the importance of starting with a shared vision for a regulatory assurance and execution strategy that leverages experience to establish optimal approaches. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. Additionally, this is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. Furthermore, on a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-AB-303-09: Rapid Projection Computations for On-Board Digital Tomosynthesis in Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To facilitate fast and accurate iterative volumetric image reconstruction from limited-angle on-board projections. Methods: Intrafraction motion hinders the clinical applicability of modern radiotherapy techniques, such as lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). The LIVE system may impact clinical practice by recovering volumetric information via Digital Tomosynthesis (DTS), thus entailing low time and radiation dose for image acquisition during treatment. The DTS is estimated as a deformation of prior CT via iterative registration with on-board images; this shifts the challenge to the computational domain, owing largely to repeated projection computations across iterations. We address this issue by composing efficient digital projection operators from their constituent parts. This allows us to separate the static (projection geometry) and dynamic (volume/image data) parts of projection operations by means of pre-computations, enabling fast on-board processing, while also relaxing constraints on underlying numerical models (e.g. regridding interpolation kernels). Further decoupling the projectors into simpler ones ensures the incurred memory overhead remains low, within the capacity of a single GPU. These operators depend only on the treatment plan and may be reused across iterations and patients. The dynamic processing load is kept to a minimum and maps well to the GPU computational model. Results: We have integrated efficient, pre-computable modules for volumetric ray-casting and FDK-based back-projection with the LIVE processing pipeline. Our results show a 60x acceleration of the DTS computations, compared to the previous version, using a single GPU; presently, reconstruction is attained within a couple of minutes. The present implementation allows for significant flexibility in terms of the numerical and operational projection model; we are investigating the benefit of further optimizations and accurate digital projection sub-kernels. Conclusion: Composable projection operators constitute a versatile research tool which can greatly accelerate iterative registration algorithms and may be conducive to the clinical applicability of LIVE. National Institutes of Health Grant No. R01-CA184173; GPU donation by NVIDIA Corporation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluating impacts of development and conservation projects using sustainability indicators: Opportunities and challenges

There has been an increased interest in using sustainability indicators for evaluating the impacts of development and conservation projects. Past and recent experiences have shown that sustainability indicators can be powerful tools for measuring the outcomes of various interventions, when used appropriately and adequately. Currently, there is a range of methods for applying sustainability indicators for project impact evaluation at the environment–development interface. At the same time, a number of challenges persist which have implication for impact evaluation processes especially in developing countries. We highlight some key and recurrent challenges, using three cases from Kenya, Indonesia and Brazil. In this study, we have conducted a comparative analysis across multiple projects from the three countries, which aimed to conserve biodiversity and improve livelihoods. The assessments of these projects were designed to evaluate their positive, negative, short-term, long term, direct and indirect impacts. We have identified a set of commonly used sustainability indicators to evaluate the projects and have discussed opportunities and challenges associated with their application. Our analysis shows that impact evaluation processes present good opportunities for applying sustainability indicators. On the other hand, we find that project proponents (e.g. managers, evaluators, donors/funders) face challenges with establishing full impacts of interventions and that these are rooted in monitoring and evaluation processes, lack of evidence-based impacts, difficulties of measuring certain outcomes and concerns over scale of a range of impacts. We outline key lessons learnt from the multiple cases and propose ways to overcome common problems. Results from our analysis demonstrate practical experiences of applying sustainability indicators in developing countries context where there are different prevailing socio-economic, cultural and environmental conditions. The knowledge derived from this study may therefore be useful to a wider range of audience who are concerned with sustainable integration of development and environmental conservation. - Highlights: • Sustainability indicators are increasingly used for evaluating project impacts. • Lessons learnt are based on case studies from Africa, Asia and South America. • Similar challenges when assessing impacts of development and conservation projects • Need for pragmatic solutions to overcome challenges when assessing project impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Land take and the effectiveness of project screening in Environmental Impact Assessment: Findings from an empirical study

Land take is emerging as a global environmental concern, and is particularly critical in intensively developed and land-scarce regions. This paper seeks to understand the effectiveness of the screening stage of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in addressing land take. Screening is the stage where a decision is made as to whether an EIA is required for a project. In many jurisdictions, screening results in three pathways: full EIA directly, preliminary EIA only, or preliminary EIA followed by full EIA. We compared the land take of 217 projects triggering the different pathways in a study region in Italy over a 15-year time interval. Land take was quantified by overlaying the footprint of the projects with a land cover map. The results show that while more attention was given to projects with larger land take impacts overall, the cumulative land take from smaller projects not triggering full EIA was considerable (40% of overall land take). The case-by-case examination conducted through the preliminary EIA was found to work better for some project types (ski areas and small urban development), than for others (quarries). Our findings lead us to advocate improvements in current screening procedures to ensure that the land take impacts are quantified and made explicit in preliminary EIA reports. Our evidence-based approach to determining land take in EIA provides a compelling basis for understanding ways to improve EIA policies, guidance and practice. - Highlights: •We quantified the land take of 217 projects triggering different EIA screening pathways. •Projects that “fly under the radar” of full EIA caused 40% of the overall land take. •The case-by-case examination works better for some project types than others. •We recommend improvements in screening procedures to ensure that land take impacts are quantified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions

This article provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. Here we present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO 2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections across models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of core baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗