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At least 343 records · Page 19

Rule-Based Flight Software Cost Estimation

This paper discusses the fundamental process for the computation of Flight Software (FSW) cost estimates. This process has been incorporated in a rule-based expert system [1] that can be used for Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs), Proposals, and for the validation of Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) submissions. A high-level directed graph (referred to here as a decision graph) illustrates the steps taken in the production of these estimated costs and serves as a basis of design for the expert system described in this paper. Detailed discussions are subsequently given elaborating upon the methodology, tools, charts, and caveats related to the various nodes of the graph. We present general principles for the estimation of FSW using SEER-SEM as an illustration of these principles when appropriate. Since Source Lines of Code (SLOC) is a major cost driver, a discussion of various SLOC data sources for the preparation of the estimates is given together with an explanation of how contractor SLOC estimates compare with the SLOC estimates used by JPL. Obtaining consistency in code counting will be presented as well as factors used in reconciling SLOC estimates from different code counters. When sufficient data is obtained, a mapping into the JPL Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) from the SEER-SEM output is illustrated. For across the board FSW estimates, as was done for the NASA Discovery Mission proposal estimates performed at JPL, a comparative high-level summary sheet for all missions with the SLOC, data description, brief mission description and the most relevant SEER-SEM parameter values is given to illustrate an encapsulation of the used and calculated data involved in the estimates. The rule-based expert system described provides the user with inputs useful or sufficient to run generic cost estimation programs. This system's incarnation is achieved via the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and will be addressed at the end of this paper.

computational intelligence↗

A Comparison of Power Take-Off Architectures for Wave-Powered Reverse Osmosis Desalination of Seawater with Co-Production of Electricity

Several power take-off (PTO) architectures for wave-powered reverse osmosis (RO) desalination of seawater are introduced and compared based on the annual average freshwater production and the size of the components, which strongly relate to the costs of the system. The set of architectures compared includes a novel series-type PTO architecture not previously considered. These seawater hydraulic PTO architectures are composed of a WEC-driven pump, an RO module, an intake charge pump driven by an electric motor, and a hydraulic motor driving an electric generator for electric power production. This study is performed using an efficient two-way coupled steady-state model for the average performance of the system in a given sea state, including freshwater permeate production, electric power production, and electric power consumption. A multi-objective design problem is formulated for the purposes of this comparative study, with the objectives of maximizing annual freshwater production, minimizing the displacement of the WEC-driven pump, and minimizing the installed RO membrane area. This establishes a framework for comparison in the absence of a mature techno-economic model. The requirement that the system produces enough electric power to meet its consumption is applied as a constraint on the operation of the system. The oscillating wave surge converter Oyster 1 is assumed as the WEC. Weights on performance of the system in a given sea state are based on historical data from Humboldt Bay, CA. This study finds that (1) architectures in a series configuration allow for a reduction in the WEC-driven pump size of 59–92% compared to prior work, (2) varying the displacement of the WEC-driven pump between sea conditions does not provide any significant advantage in performance, and (3) varying the active RO membrane area between sea condition offers improvements between 7% and 41% in each design objective.

Energy & Fuels↗

Economic analysis of precious metal recovery from electronic waste through gas-assisted microflow extraction

The recycling of end-of-life (EoL) electronic products is motivated by the enormous investment of resources in their creation and the environmental concerns associated with electronic waste (e-waste). Hydrometallurgical methods that utilize conventional leaching and solvent extraction are often applied to extract target materials from e-waste; however, these techniques have significant technical and economic limitations when extracting high-value, low concentration metals from complex waste streams. This study proposes and evaluates a novel process based on gas-assisted microflow extraction (GAME) that efficiently recovers precious metals from waste printed circuit boards (WPCBs). Further, an economic analysis is conducted to verify the economic feasibility of the GAME-based process at an industrial scale. The economic outputs are further investigated to identify the most cost-effective production strategies, particularly with respect to the plant feedstock rate. It is envisioned that this study may establish a paradigm for making economically-informed decisions for sustainable technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cost and Schedule Analytical Techniques Development: Option 2 Year

This Final Report summarizes the activities performed by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for the Option 2 Year from December 1, 1996 through November 30, 1997. The Final Report is in compliance with Paragraph 5 of Section F of the contract. This CSATD contract provides products and deliverable in the form of models, data bases, methodologies, studies and analyses for the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Engineering Cost Office (PPO3) the Program Plans and Requirements Officer (PP02), and other user organizations. Detailed Monthly Progress reports were submitted to MSFC in accordance with the contract's Statement of Work, Section TV "Reporting and Documentation". These reports spelled out each month's specific work accomplishments, deliverables submitted, major meetings held, and other pertinent information. This Final Report will summarize these activities at higher level. During this contract Option Year, SAIC expended 29,830 man-hours in tile performance of tasks called out in the Statement of Work and reported oil in this yearly Final Report. This represents approximately 16 full-time EPs. Included are the basis Huntsville-based team, plus SAIC specialists in San Diego, Ames Research Center, Chicago, and Colorado Springs performing specific tasks for which they are uniquely qualified.

Source record↗

Modeling and Market Design Considerations for Conventional and Decarbonized Resources

The following paper reviews various market design issues that will need to be reconsidered due to anticipated changes in the resources that supply energy in wholesale electricity markets. As the energy supply continues towards decarbonization, the change in resource technologies will affect the fundamentals of production scheduling and the policies to address supply variability and uncertainty. We show through simple numerical examples that the existing market design approach based on fuel costs will result in $0/MWh prices with intermittent price spikes during reserve shortages, but that incorporating more granular reserve pricing, energy storage participation, and price-responsive demand participation can restore efficient market clearing with reasonable pricing outcomes. The market design approach fundamentally shifts from fuel based to opportunity cost based. We briefly review alternative market design frameworks that can support this shift, including intraday markets, decentralized markets, flexibility options, and swing contracts. Market designs may also be required to accommodate or support various out-of-market policies and agreements; ideally, these external factors can be integrated into the market design to facilitate efficient exchanges across longer time scales, between other markets, and in support of public policy goals. The paper concludes by discussing how decarbonization trends may affect the design and use of production cost models for short term operations and long term planning studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Aerospace Engineering Systems

Continuous improvement of aerospace product development processes is a driving requirement across much of the aerospace community. As up to 90% of the cost of an aerospace product is committed during the first 10% of the development cycle, there is a strong emphasis on capturing, creating, and communicating better information (both requirements and performance) early in the product development process. The community has responded by pursuing the development of computer-based systems designed to enhance the decision-making capabilities of product development individuals and teams. Recently, the historical foci on sharing the geometrical representation and on configuration management are being augmented: Physics-based analysis tools for filling the design space database; Distributed computational resources to reduce response time and cost; Web-based technologies to relieve machine-dependence; and Artificial intelligence technologies to accelerate processes and reduce process variability. Activities such as the Advanced Design Technologies Testbed (ADTT) project at NASA Ames Research Center study the strengths and weaknesses of the technologies supporting each of these trends, as well as the overall impact of the combination of these trends on a product development event. Lessons learned and recommendations for future activities will be reported.

VanDalsem, William R.↗

NASA's Human Mission to a Near-Earth Asteroid: Landing on a Moving Target

This paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the productivity and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending versus not sending one or more robotic surveyor missions prior to a human mission to land on an asteroid. The expected value of sample information based on productivity combined with parametric variations in the prior probability an asteroid might be found suitable for landing were used to assess the optimal number of spacecraft and asteroids to survey. The analysis supports the value of surveyor missions to asteroids and indicates one launch with two spacecraft going simultaneously to two independent asteroids appears optimal.

precursor decision making↗

Economical space power systems

A commercial approach to design and fabrication of an economical space power system is investigated. Cost projections are based on a 2 kW space power system conceptual design taking into consideration the capability for serviceability, constraints of operation in space, and commercial production engineering approaches. A breakdown of the system design, documentation, fabrication, and reliability and quality assurance estimated costs are detailed.

Burkholder, J. H.↗

Integration of discrete-event dynamics and machining dynamics for machine tool: Modeling, analysis and algorithms

Machining dynamics research lays a solid foundation for machining operations by providing stable combinations of spindle speed and depth of cut. Furthermore, machine learning has been applied to predict tool life as a function of cutting speed. However, the existing research does not consider the discrete-event dynamics in machine shop, i.e., the machine tool needs to process a series of parts in queue under various practical production requirements. This paper addresses the integration of discrete-event dynamics and machining dynamics to achieve cost savings in machining. A learning-based cost function is first proposed for the studied integrated optimization problem of machine tool. The proposed cost function utilizes the predicted tool life under different stable cutting speeds for further optimizing speed selection of machine tool to deal with the discrete-event dynamics in machine shop. Then, according to the practical production requirements, effective mathematical optimization models are developed for the related integrated optimization problems with the consideration of cost, makespan and due date, respectively. Numerical results show the effectiveness of our proposed methods and also the potential to be used in practice.

Ma, Mason↗

COINS: A composites information database system

An automated data abstraction form (ADAF) was developed to collect information on advanced fabrication processes and their related costs. The information will be collected for all components being fabricated as part of the Advanced Composite Technology (ACT) program and included in a COmposites INformation System (COINS) data base. The aim of the COINS development effort is to provide future airframe preliminary design and fabrication teams with a tool through which production cost can become a deterministic variable in the design optimization process. The effort was initiated by NASA Langley to implement the recommendations of a working group comprised of representatives from the commercial airframe companies. The principal working group recommendation was to reinstitute collection of composite part fabrication data in a format similar to the DOD/NASA Structural Composites Fabrication Guide. The fabrication information collection form was automated with current user friendly computer technology. The new automated form and features that make the form easy to use by an aircraft structural design manufacturing team are described.

Siddiqi, Shahid↗

Optimization under uncertainty of a hybrid waste tire and natural gas feedstock flexible polygeneration system using a decomposition algorithm

Market uncertainties motivate the development of flexible polygeneration systems that are able to adjust operating conditions to favor production of the most profitable product portfolio. However, this operational flexibility comes at the cost of higher capital expenditure. A scenario-based two-stage stochastic nonconvex Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) approach lends itself naturally to optimizing these trade-offs. This work studies the optimal design and operation under uncertainty of a hybrid feedstock flexible polygeneration system producing electricity, methanol, dimethyl ether, olefins or liquefied (synthetic) natural gas. A recently developed C++ based software framework (named GOSSIP) is used for modeling the optimization problem as well as its efficient solution using the Nonconvex Generalized Benders Decomposition (NGBD) algorithm. Two different cases are studied: The first uses estimates of the means and variances of the uncertain parameters from historical data, whereas the second assesses the impact of increased uncertain parameter volatility. The value of implementing flexible designs characterized by the value of the stochastic solution (VSS) is in the range of 260–405 M$ for a scale of approximately 893 MW of thermal input. Increased price volatility around the same mean results in higher expected net present value and VSS as operational flexibility allows for asymmetric exploitation of price peaks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Bioenergy crops as alternative feedstocks for recovery of anthocyanins: A review

Anthocyanins are plant-based pigments known for their wide range of industrial applications. Berries, grapes, purple yam, purple corn, and black rice are among the chief dietary sources of anthocyanins. However, these sources have a well-established market in the food sector and cannot be diverted completely for the extraction of anthocyanins. Hence, there is a need to identify alternative sources of these natural colorants. In this review, color-bearing bioenergy crops with high productivity such as miscanthus, sorghum, and sugarcane have been proposed as potential feedstocks for the recovery of anthocyanins as co-products. The role of genetic modification in the biosynthesis of anthocyanins in these crops has been discussed. A consolidated bioprocessing approach has been proposed for the recovery of anthocyanins from bioenergy crops along with the production of bioethanol and lignin-based chemicals. Such an integrated process could make the overall process for the production of biofuels cost-effective.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Exploiting electricity market dynamics using flexible electrolysis units for retrofitting methanol synthesis

Here we investigate the economic viability of integrating flexible electrolysis units to produce hydrogen in methanol synthesis processes. Specifically, we investigate whether this approach can help reduce methanol production costs by strategically exploiting dynamics of electricity markets. Our study integrates high-fidelity process simulations, optimization tools, and microkinetic modeling (informed by density functional theory) to conduct detailed techno-economic analyses and to compare performance against traditional processes that use hydrogen produced via steam-methane reforming (SMR). We also use this approach to estimate the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) as a function of time-varying electricity prices (from day-ahead and real-time prices) and of key techno-economic parameters. Our results show that the proposed electrification framework is cost-competitive under certain electricity market conditions. Specifically, we find that, when the electrolysis system is operated in flexible mode (and can respond to dynamics of electricity markets), the associated electricity cost nearly collapses to zero. Conversely, when the unit is not flexible (and cannot respond to markets), the electricity cost comprises 60% of the total cost. Our results also reveal that the LCOH of the flexible electrolysis system participating in real-time electricity markets is 31% lower than the LCOH obtained from SMR. Overall, this indicates that exploiting the dynamics of electricity markets can make hydrogen production cost-competitive and this can lead to viable alternatives to electrify methanol production and other hydrogen-based processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Low-cost point-focus solar concentrator, phase 1

The results of the preliminary design study for the low cost point focus solar concentrator (LCPFSC) development program are presented. A summary description of the preliminary design is given. The design philosophy used to achieve a cost effective design for mass production is described. The concentrator meets all design requirements specified and is based on practical design solutions in every possible way.

Nelson, E. V.↗

Sensitivity analysis of the add-on price estimate for the silicon web growth process

The web growth process, a silicon-sheet technology option, developed for the flat plate solar array (FSA) project, was examined. Base case data for the technical and cost parameters for the technical and commercial readiness phase of the FSA project are projected. The process add on price, using the base case data for cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials and utilities, and the production parameters such as growth rate and run length, using a computer program developed specifically to do the sensitivity analysis with improved price estimation are analyzed. Silicon price, sheet thickness and cell efficiency are also discussed.

Mokashi, A. R.↗

Regenerating using aqueous cleaners with ozone and electrolysis

A new process converts organic oil and grease contaminates in used water based cleaners into synthetic surfactants. This permits the continued use of a cleaning solution long after it would have been dumped using previously known methods. Since the organic soils are converted from contaminates to cleaning compounds the need for frequent bath dumps is totally eliminated. When cleaning solutions used in aqueous cleaning systems are exhausted and ready for disposal, they will always contain the contaminates removed from the cleaned parts and drag-in from prior cleaning steps. Even when the cleaner is biodegradable these contaminants will frequently cause the waste cleaning solution to be a hazardous waste. Chlorinated solvents are rapidly being replaced by aqueous cleaners to avoid the new ozone-depletion product-labeling-law. Many industry standard halocarbon based solvents are being completely phased out of production, and their prices have nearly tripled. Waste disposal costs and cradle-to-grave liability are also major concerns for industry today. This new process reduces the amount of water and chemicals needed to maintain the cleaning process. The cost of waste disposal is eliminated because the water and cleaning compounds are reused. Energy savings result by eliminating the need for energy currently used to produce and deliver fresh water and chemicals as well as the energy used to treat and destroy the waste from the existing cleaning processes. This process also allows the cleaning bath to be maintained at the peak performance of a new bath resulting in decreased cycle times and decreased energy consumption needed to clean the parts. This results in a more efficient and cost effective cleaning process.

Mcginness, Michael P.↗

Reinventing the Solar Power Satellite

Economy of scale is inherent in the microwave power transmission aperture/spot-size trade-off, resulting in a requirement for large space systems in the existing design concepts. Unfortunately, this large size means that the initial investment required before the first return, and the price of amortization of this initial investment, is a daunting (and perhaps insurmountable) barrier to economic viability. As the growth of ground-based solar power applications will fund the development of the PV technology required for space solar power and will also create the demand for space solar power by manufacturing a ready-made market, space power systems must be designed with an understanding that ground-based solar technologies will be implemented as a precursor to space-based solar. for low initial cost, (3) operation in synergy with ground solar systems, and (4) power production profile tailored to peak rates. A key to simplicity of design is to maximize the integration of the system components. Microwave, millimeter-wave, and laser systems are analyzed. A new solar power satellite design concept with no sun-tracking and no moving parts is proposed to reduce the required cost to initial operational capability.

Landis, Geoffrey A.↗

Techno-Economic Simulation Results Using dGeo for EGS-Based District Heating in the Northeastern United States

This dataset presents the results of techno-economic simulations performed using the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) to evaluate the feasibility of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS)-based district heating in the Northeastern United States. Developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), dGeo is a geospatially resolved, bottom-up modeling framework designed to explore the deployment potential of geothermal distributed energy resources. The dataset, created as part of the Cornell EGS Ground-Truthing Project, provides census tract-level data that includes inputs and outputs such as thermal demand, road length, energy prices, geothermal system sizing, annual energy contributions from geothermal and natural gas peaking boilers, system capital costs (CAPEX), operation and maintenance costs (OPEX), and the levelized cost of heat (LCOH). Key simulation parameters include geothermal gradients, measured well depths, production temperatures, and district heating piping lengths based on S1400 neighborhood road lengths. The simulations assume a target bottom hole temperature of 80C and the development of new district heating networks in each census tract.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗