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At least 343 records · Page 19

Modeling interval trendlines: Symbolic singular spectrum analysis for interval time series

Abstract In this article we propose an extension of singular spectrum analysis for interval‐valued time series. The proposed methods can be used to decompose and forecast the dynamics governing a set‐valued stochastic process. The resulting components on which the interval time series is decomposed can be understood as interval trendlines, cycles, or noise. Forecasting can be conducted through a linear recurrent method, and we devised generalizations of the decomposition method for the multivariate setting. The performance of the proposed methods is showcased in a simulation study. We apply the proposed methods so to track the dynamics governing the Argentina Stock Market (MERVAL) in real time, in a case study over a period of turbulence that led to discussions of the government of Argentina with the International Monetary Fund.

de Carvalho, Miguel↗

Taming nuclear mass models with Gaussian processes

We propose a new set of nuclear mass predictions based on multiple theoretical mass models. By employing Gaussian process regression with the Matérn kernel, we achieved root-mean-square (rms) deviations below 100 keV for the training dataset. The best-performing mass models achieved rms deviations below 150 keV for the new precise mass data from AME2020, whereas the ensemble average showed robust performance across the nuclear chart. Our approach uniquely combines: (1) systematic refinement of eight mass models through their residuals, (2) physics-informed features, including magic numbers, nucleon parity numbers, neutron excess, and nuclear collectivity, and (3) theory-to-theory validation demonstrating robust extrapolation capability. We find that the Matérn kernel provides superior uncertainty quantification compared to the RBF kernel, with a length-scale analysis revealing enhanced inter-nuclei correlations. We provide complete mass predictions for all unknown nuclides in AME2020, offering valuable constraints for nuclear structure studies and astrophysical modeling when used with proper uncertainty propagation.

Gaussian processes↗

Description of data on the Nimbus 7 LIMS map archive tape: Ozone and nitric acid

The Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) data set has been processed into a Fourier coefficient representation with a Kalman filter algorithm applied to profile data at individual latitudes and pressure levels. The algorithm produces synoptic data at noon Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) from the asynoptic orbital profiles. This form of the data set is easy to use and is appropriate for time series analysis and further data manipulation and display. Ozone and nitric acid results are grouped together in this report because the LIMS vertical field of views (FOV's) and analysis characteristics for these species are similar. A comparison of the orbital input data with mixing ratios derived from Kalman filter coefficients indicates errors in mixing ratio of generally less than 5 percent, with 15 percent being a maximum error. The high quality of the mapped data was indicated by coherence of both the phases and the amplitudes of waves with latitude and pressure. Examples of the mapped fields are presented, and details are given concerning the importance of diurnal variations, the removal of polar stratospheric cloud signatures, and the interpretation of bias effects in the data near the tops of profiles.

Remsberg, E. E.↗

Data Reduction for Science: Brochure from the Advanced Scientific Computing Research Workshop

Data reduction for science holds promise for addressing the challenges of moving, storing, and processing massive data sets produced by the scientific community. Pursuing the PRDs outlined here will enable advances in data streaming, fast feedback and/or autonomous control of experiments, and faster time to scientific insight. These advances will result in a significant improvement in the ability to transport, store, process and interpret experimental, observational, and computational data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Navigation and Meteorological Data from Multiple Sensors on Airborne Platform (NAVMET-AIR) Value-Added Product Report

The Navigation and Meteorological Data from Multiple Sensors on Airborne Platform (NAVMET-AIR) value-added product encompasses the aafnaviwg data set in the ARM Data Center (ADC), known as the IWG file, named for the Inter-Agency Working Group for Airborne Data and Telemetry Systems (IWGADTS). Its purpose is to produce a suite of tools to promote standardization of instrument interface, data format, and data processing. This data set’s contents are navigational and meteorological state variables at 1 Hz. It also contains higher-order data flags created by ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) scientists to aid analysis such as periods when the aircraft is flying level, operating in maneuvers, or flying through cloud. Due to the nature of research flights, the payload of the aircraft consists of many duplicate and overlapping instruments to ensure, in case of instrument failure, there is a backup to record the data. Measurements from multiple instruments are consolidated into a single file. Each variable of this data set is carefully chosen from the onboard instrumentation and quality checked by AAF scientists to create this wholistic and most accurate data set for airborne research. This document is intended to be a hub towards the individual “read me” files produced for each campaign. For reference about what instrument was used for calculations on specific days, the read me files are located in the ARM IOP archive at the addresses listed, or access the IOP (intensive operational period) database at https://www.archive.arm.gov/.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heater Validation for the NEXT-C Hollow Cathodes

Swaged cathode heaters whose design was successfully demonstrated under a prior flight project are to be provided by the NASA Glenn Research Center for the NEXT-C ion thruster being fabricated by Aerojet Rocketdyne. Extensive requalification activities were performed to validate process controls that had to be re-established or revised because systemic changes prevented reuse of the past approaches. A development batch of heaters was successfully fabricated based on the new process controls. Acceptance and cyclic life testing of multiple discharge and neutralizer sized heaters extracted from the development batch was initiated in August, 2016, with the last heater completing testing in April, 2017. Cyclic life testing results substantially exceeded the NEXT-C thruster requirement as well as all past experience for GRC-fabricated units. The heaters demonstrated ultimate cyclic life capability of 19050 to 33500 cycles. A qualification batch of heaters is now being fabricated using the finalized process controls. A set of six heaters will be acceptance and cyclic tested to verify conformance to the behavior observed with the development heaters. The heaters for flight use will be then be provided to the contractor from the remainder of the qualification batch. This paper summarizes the fabrication process control activities and the acceptance and life testing of the development heater units.

Verhey, Timothy R.↗

Effect of Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3) Processing Parameters on Composition of Ti-6-4

The Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3) process developed at NASA Langley Research Center was evaluated using a design of experiments approach to determine the effect of processing parameters on the composition and geometry of Ti-6-4 deposits. The effects of three processing parameters: beam power, translation speed, and wire feed rate, were investigated by varying one while keeping the remaining parameters constant. A three-factorial, three-level, fully balanced mutually orthogonal array (L27) design of experiments approach was used to examine the effects of low, medium, and high settings for the processing parameters on the chemistry, geometry, and quality of the resulting deposits. Single bead high deposits were fabricated and evaluated for 27 experimental conditions. Loss of aluminum in Ti-6-4 was observed in EBF3 processing due to selective vaporization of the aluminum from the sustained molten pool in the vacuum environment; therefore, the chemistries of the deposits were measured and compared with the composition of the initial wire and base plate to determine if the loss of aluminum could be minimized through careful selection of processing parameters. The influence of processing parameters and coupling between these parameters on bulk composition, measured by Direct Current Plasma (DCP), local microchemistries determined by Wavelength Dispersive Spectrometry (WDS), and deposit geometry will also be discussed.

Lach, Cynthia L.↗

Study of carbon nanotube embedded honey as a resistive switching material

In this paper, natural organic honey embedded with carbon nanotubes (CNTs) was studied as a resistive switching material for biodegradable nonvolatile memory in emerging neuromorphic systems. CNTs were dispersed in a honey-water solution with the concentration of 0.2 wt% CNT and 30 wt% honey. The final honey-CNT-water mixture was spin-coated and dried into a thin film sandwiched in between Cu bottom electrode and Al top electrode to form a honey-CNT based resistive switching memory (RSM). Surface morphology, electrical characteristics and current conduction mechanism were investigated. The results show that although CNTs formed agglomerations in the dried honey-CNT film, both switching speed and the stability in SET and RESET process of honey-CNT RSM were improved. The mechanism of current conduction in CNT is governed by Ohm’s law in low-resistance state and the low-voltage range in high-resistance state, but transits to the space charge limited conduction at high voltages approaching the SET voltage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Multi-Band Analytical Algorithm for Deriving Absorption and Backscattering Coefficients from Remote-Sensing Reflectance of Optically Deep Waters

A multi-band analytical (MBA) algorithm is developed to retrieve absorption and backscattering coefficients for optically deep waters, which can be applied to data from past and current satellite sensors, as well as data from hyperspectral sensors. This MBA algorithm applies a remote-sensing reflectance model derived from the Radiative Transfer Equation, and values of absorption and backscattering coefficients are analytically calculated from values of remote-sensing reflectance. There are only limited empirical relationships involved in the algorithm, which implies that this MBA algorithm could be applied to a wide dynamic range of waters. Applying the algorithm to a simulated non-"Case 1" data set, which has no relation to the development of the algorithm, the percentage error for the total absorption coefficient at 440 nm a (sub 440) is approximately 12% for a range of 0.012 - 2.1 per meter (approximately 6% for a (sub 440) less than approximately 0.3 per meter), while a traditional band-ratio approach returns a percentage error of approximately 30%. Applying it to a field data set ranging from 0.025 to 2.0 per meter, the result for a (sub 440) is very close to that using a full spectrum optimization technique (9.6% difference). Compared to the optimization approach, the MBA algorithm cuts the computation time dramatically with only a small sacrifice in accuracy, making it suitable for processing large data sets such as satellite images. Significant improvements over empirical algorithms have also been achieved in retrieving the optical properties of optically deep waters.

Lee, Zhong-Ping↗

On learning what to learn: Heterogeneous observations of dynamics and establishing possibly causal relations among them

Abstract Before we attempt to (approximately) learn a function between two sets of observables of a physical process, we must first decide what the inputs and outputs of the desired function are going to be. Here we demonstrate two distinct, data-driven ways of first deciding “the right quantities” to relate through such a function, and then proceeding to learn it. This is accomplished by first processing simultaneous heterogeneous data streams (ensembles of time series) from observations of a physical system: records of multiple observation processes of the system. We determine (i) what subsets of observables are common between the observation processes (and therefore observable from each other, relatable through a function); and (ii) what information is unrelated to these common observables, therefore particular to each observation process, and not contributing to the desired function. Any data-driven technique can subsequently be used to learn the input–output relation—from k-nearest neighbors and Geometric Harmonics to Gaussian Processes and Neural Networks. Two particular “twists” of the approach are discussed. The first has to do with the identifiability of particular quantities of interest from the measurements. We now construct mappings from a single set of observations from one process to entire level sets of measurements of the second process, consistent with this single set. The second attempts to relate our framework to a form of causality: if one of the observation processes measures “now,” while the second observation process measures “in the future,” the function to be learned among what is common across observation processes constitutes a dynamical model for the system evolution.

Sroczynski, David W.↗

Inferring the scrape-off layer heat flux width in a divertor with a low degree of axisymmetry

Plasma facing components (PFCs) in the next generation of tokamak devices will operate in challenging environments, with heat loads predicted to exceed 10 MWm -2 . The magnitude of these heat loads is set by the width of the channel, the ‘scrape-off layer’ (SOL), into which heat is exhausted, and can be characterised by an e-folding length scale for the decay of heat flux across the channel. It is expected this channel will narrow as tokamaks move towards reactor relevant conditions. Understanding the processes involved in setting the SOL heat flux width is imperative to be able to predict the heat loads PFCs must handle in future devices. Measurements of the SOL width are performed on the high-field spherical tokamak, ST40, using a newly commissioned infrared thermography system. With its high on-axis toroidal magnetic field (≥1.5 T) ST40 is uniquely positioned to investigate the influence of toroidal field on the heat flux width in spherical tokamaks, whilst also extending measurements of the SOL width in spherical tokamaks to increased poloidal field (≥0.3 T). Due to the divertor on ST40 having a low degree of axisymmetry, it is necessary for a set of radial measurements of the heat flux to be taken across the divertor, made possible using an automated toolchain that fully incorporates its 3D geometry. These radial profiles are combined with the magnetic geometry of the plasma to infer the width of the SOL, with both Eich and double exponential profiles of heat flux observed. A reduction in the heat flux is observed toroidally across part of the divertor, along with increased heat loads observed locally around the edges of the tiles. Future work in characterising the impact of tile misalignment and uncertainties in the reconstructed divertor magnetic geometry is required in order to further understand the observed heat flux patterns, as are additional investigations into the role potentially being played by an inhomogeneous sheath electric field.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Swift-BAT Hard X-ray Transient Monitor

The Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) on the Swift satellite is a large field of view instrument that continually monitors the sky to provide the gamma-ray burst trigger for Swift. An average of more than 70% of the sky is observed on a daily basis. The survey mode data is processed on two sets on time scales: from one minute to one day as part of the transient monitor program, and from one spacecraft pointing (approx.20 minutes) to the full mission duration for the hard X-ray survey program. The transient monitor has recently become public through the web site http:// swift.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/swift/results/transients/. Sky images are processed to detect astrophysical sources in the 15-50 keV energy band and the detected flux or upper limit is calculated for >100 sources on time scales up to one day. Light curves are updated each time that new BAT data becomes available (approx.10 times daily). In addition, the monitor is sensitive to an outburst from a new or unknown source. Sensitivity as a function of time scale for catalog and unknown sources will be presented. The daily exposure for a typical source is approx.1500-3000 seconds, with a 1-sigma sensitivity of approx.4 mCrab. 90% of the sources are sampled at least every 16 days, but many sources are sampled daily. It is expected that the Swift-BAT transient monitor will become an important resource for the high energy astrophysics community.

Krimm, Hans↗

Toxicological approach to setting spacecraft maximum allowable concentrations for carbon monoxide

The Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs) are exposure limits for airborne chemicals used by NASA in spacecraft. The aim of these SMACs is to protect the spacecrew against adverse health effects and performance decrements that would interfere with mission objectives. Because of the 1 and 24 hr SMACs are set for contingencies, minor reversible toxic effects that do not affect mission objectives are acceptable. The 7, 30, or 180 day SMACs are aimed at nominal operations, so they are established at levels that would not cause noncarcinogenic toxic effects and more than one case of tumor per 1000 exposed individuals over the background. The process used to set the SMACs for carbon monoxide (CO) is described to illustrate the approach used by NASA. After the toxicological literature on CO was reviewed, the data were summarized and separated into acute, subchronic, and chronic toxicity data. CO's toxicity depends on the formation of carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) in the blood, reducing the blood's oxygen carrying capacity. The initial task was to estimate the COHb levels that would not produce toxic effects in the brain and heart.

Wong, K. L.↗

A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

Roads, John↗

Understanding structure-processing relationships in metal additive manufacturing via featurization of microstructural images

Understanding and predicting accurate property-structure-processing relationships for additively manufactured components is important for both forward and inverse design of robust, reliable parts and assemblies. While direct mapping of process parameters to properties is sometimes plausible, it is often rendered difficult due to poor microstructural control. Exploring the direct relationship between processing conditions and microstructural features can thus provide significant physical insights and aid the overall design process. Here, in this study, we develop an automated high-throughput framework to simulate an uncertainty-aware additive manufacturing (AM) process, characterize microstructural images, and extract meaningful features/descriptors. A kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) based model of the AM process is used to simulate microstructural evolution for a diverse set of experimentally relevant processing conditions. We perform a parametric study to explore the relationship between microstructural features and processing conditions. Our results indicate that a many-to-one mapping can exist between processing conditions and typical descriptors; therefore, multiple descriptors are thus necessary to unambiguously represent microstructural images. Our work provides crucial quantitative and qualitative in-formation that would aid in the selection of features for microstructural images. Featurized microstructures could then be utilized to build data-driven models for predictive control of microstructures and thereby properties of additively manufactured components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Toward 2035: Forging a High-Ambition U.S. Climate Pathway

This analysis takes an integrated, innovative approach to develop plausible, high-ambition pathways through 2035 to inform the third U.S. NDC target setting. This approach combines: (1) an extensive consultation and engagement process with a broad set of federal and subnational stakeholders to build a robust U.S. policy platform; and (2) an open-source, field-leading integrated assessment model focused on the U.S. containing subnational details. The modeling tool assesses existing and possible new policies from both federal and subnational levels to assess the overall emissions reduction potential and the policy pathways to deliver the ambition needed for 2035 and leading on to 2050. In addition, we highlight how different actors can contribute to the needed transition in each sector and showcase successful implementation stories by various subnational actors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗