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At least 343 records · Page 19

What the UV SED Tells us About Stellar Populations and Galaxies

The UV SED parameter b as in f(sub 1) ~ 1(sup b), is commonly used to estimate fundamental properties of high-redshift galaxies including age and metallicity. However, sources and processes other than age and metallicity can influence the value of b. We use the local starforming dwarf galaxy, I Zw 18, in a case study to investigate uncertainties in age and metallicity inferred from b due errors or uncertainties in: mode of star formation (instantaneous starburst vs. continuous SF), dust extinction, nebular continuous emission (2-photon emission, Balmer continuum flux), and presence of older stars.

Heap, Sara R.↗

Submillimetric Spectroscopic Observations of Volatiles in Comet C-2004 Q2 (Machholz)

Submillimeter spectroscopic observations of comets provide an important tool for understanding their chemical composition and enable a taxonomic classification. Aims. We aim to determine the production rates of several parent- and product volatiles and the C-12/C-13 isotopic carbon ratio in the long-period comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz), which is likely to originate from the Oort Cloud. Methods. The line emission from several molecules in the coma was measured with high signal-to-noise ratio in January 2005 at heliocentric distance of 1.2 AU by means of high-resolution spectroscopic observations using the Submillimeter Telescope (SMT) at the Arizona Radio Observatory (ARO). Results. We have obtained production rates of several volatiles (CH3OH, HCN, H(sup 13)CN, HNC, H2CO, CO, and CS) by comparing the observed and simulated line-integrated intensities. We calculated the synthetic profiles using a radiative transfer code that includes collisions between neutrals and electrons, and the effects of radiative pumping of the fundamental vibrational levels by solar infrared radiation. Furthermore, multiline observations of the CH3OH J = 7-6 series allow us to estimate the rotational temperature using the rotation diagram technique. We find that the CH3OH population distribution of the levels sampled by these lines can be described by a rotational temperature of 40 +/- 3 K. Derived mixing ratios relative to hydrogen cyanide are CO/CH3OH/H2CO/CS/HNC/HC-13N/HCN= 30.9/24.6/4.8/0.57/0.031/0.013/1 assuming a pointing offset of 8" due to the uncertain ephemeris at the time of the observations and the telescope pointing error. Conclusions. The measured relative molecular abundances in C/2004 Q2 (Machholz) are between low- to typical values of those obtained in Oort Cloud comets, suggesting that it has visited the inner solar system previously and undergone thermal processing. The HNC/HCN abundance ratio of approx 3.1% is comparable to that found in other comets, accounting for the dependence on the heliocentric distance, and could possibly be explained by ion-molecule chemical processes in the low-temperature atmosphere. From a tentative HC-13N detection, the measured value of 97 +/- 30 for the HC-12N/HC-13N isotopologue pair is consistent with a telluric value. The outgassing variability observed in the HCN production rates over a period of two hours is consistent with the rotation of the nucleus derived using different observational techniques.

chemical composition↗

Bayesian Statistical Models for Community Annoyance Survey Data

This paper demonstrates the use of two Bayesian statistical models to analyze single-event sonic boom exposure and human annoyance data from community response surveys. Each model is fit to data from a NASA pilot study.Unlike many community noise surveys, this study used a panel sample to collect multiple observations per participant instead of a single observation. Thus, a multilevel (also known as hierarchical or mixed-effects) model is used to account for the within-subject correlation in the panel sample data. This paper describes a multilevel logistic regression model and a multilevel ordinal regression model. The paper also proposes a method for calculating a summary dose-response curve from the multilevel models that represents the population. The two models’ summary dose-response curves are visually similar. However, their estimates differ when calculating the noise dose at a fixed percent highly annoyed.

Musical instruments↗

Territory and Population Attributes Affect Florida Scrub-Jay Fecundity in Fire Adapted Ecosystems

Fecundity, the number of young produced by a breeding pair during a breeding season, is a primary component in evolutionary and ecological theory and applications. Fecundity can be influenced by many environmental factors and requires long-term study due to the range of variation in ecosystem dynamics. Fecundity data often include a large proportion of zeros when many pairs fail to produce any young during a breeding season due to nest failure or when all young die independently after fledging. We conducted color banding and monthly censuses of Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) across 31 years, 15 populations, and 761 territories along central Florida’s Atlantic coast. We quantified how fecundity (juveniles/pair-year) was influenced by habitat quality, presence/absence of nonbreeders, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall, with a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model including both a Bernoulli (e.g., brood success) and a Poisson (counts of young) submodel, and random effects for year, population, and territory. The results identified the importance of increasing “strong” quality habitat, which was a mid-successional state related to fire frequency and extent, because strong territories, and the proportion of strong territories in the overall population, influenced fecundity of breeding pairs. Populations subject to supplementary feeding also had greater fecundity. Territory size, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall surprisingly had no or small effects. Different mechanisms appeared to cause annual variation in fecundity, as estimates of random effects were not correlated between the success and count submodels. The increased fecundity for pairs with nonbreeders, compared to pairs without, identified empirical research needed to understand how the proportion of low-quality habitats influences population recovery and sustainability, because dispersal into low-quality habitats can drain nonbreeders from strong territories and decrease overall fecundity. We also describe how long term study resulted in reversals in our understanding because of complications involving habitat quality, sociobiology, and population density.

Long-term studies↗

Selection and Assessment of Predictions of the Mars Pathfinder Landing Site

The successful landing of the Mars Pathfinder spacecraft on Mars allows the review of the process of selecting the landing site and assessing predictions made for the site based on Viking and Earth-based data. Selection of the landing site for Mars Pathfinder was a two-phase process. The first phase took place from October 1993 to June 1994 and involved: initial identification of engineering constraints, definition of environmental conditions at the site for spacecraft design, and evaluation of the scientific potential of different landing sites. This phase culminated with the first "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop", held at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas on April 18-19, 1994, in which suggested approaches and landing sites were solicited from the entire scientific community. A preliminary site was selected by the project for design purposes in June 1994. The second phase took place from July 1994 to March 1996 and involved: developing criteria for evaluating site safety using images and remote sensing data, testing of the spacecraft and landing subsystems (with design improvements) to establish quantitative engineering constraints on landing site characteristics, evaluating all potential landing sites on Mars, and certification of the site by the project. This phase included a second open workshop, "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop II: Characteristics of the Ares Vallis Region and Field Trips in the Channeled Scabland, Washington" held in Spokane and Moses Lake September 24-30, 1995 and formal acceptance of the site by NASA Headquarters. Engineering constraints on Pathfinder landing sites were developed from the initial design of the spacecraft and the entry, descent and landing scenario. The site must be within 5 degrees of the subsolar latitude at the time of landing (15N for maximum solar power and flexible communications with Earth. It also must be below 0 km elevation to enable enough time for the parachute to bring the lander to the proper terminal velocity for landing. The entire landing ellipse, which is 70 km by 200 km due to navigational, ephemeris and atmospheric uncertainties, must be free of steep slopes, scarps and obvious hazards in Viking orbiter images, have acceptable radar reflectivity, moderate rock abundances and have little or no dust. Scientific considerations of the Mars Pathfinder payload and mission indicate that analyses of "grab bag" samples at the mouths of outflow channels can offer a first order assessment of a variety of rock types on Mars. Highland sites offer the advantage of in situ analysis of ancient rocks on Mars that record crustal differentiation and the nature of the early environment. Dark gray sites offer the potential of analyzing unweathered and unoxidized materials. Following a general assessment of the safety of different sites, a preliminary selection of a "grab bag" site was made. This site, Ares Vallis, is near the mouth of an outflow channel that may contain ancient Noachian terrain, Hesperian ridged plains, and reworked channel materials. All potential landing sites on Mars that met basic safety criteria were analyzed in detail. Sites (100 by 200 km target ellipses) were considered safe if they were below 0 km elevation, were free of obvious hazards (high relief surface features) in high-resolution (< 50 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and had acceptable reflectivity and roughness at radar wavelengths, high thermal inertia, moderate rock abundance, low red to violet ratio, and low albedo. Only 4 sites on Mars met all the above criteria, which included 1995 opposition 3.5 cm delay-Doppler radar data. Complete data were evaluated for 7 sites and the Viking landing sites for comparison for all the above criteria as well as crater abundance, hill and mesa abundance, slopes over meter to kilometer scales, low altitude winds (from global circulation models and slopes), the size-frequency distribution of large rocks, as well as rover trafficability and science potential. Discussion of potential hazards at Ares Vallis using a variety of data sets (including radar) at a second open workshop, indicated this site cannot be shown to be any more hazardous than the Viking landing sites. Field trips to the Channeled Scabland and the Ephrata Fan, analogs for Ares Vallis and the landing site, respectively, provided valuable insight into possible geologic processes and potential surface characteristics. Three sites met all the data requirements and safety criteria for landing Pathfinder. Ares Vallis was selected by the project because it appeared acceptably safe (although it appeared to have greater rock abundances than other sites, its elevation was likely the best known) and offered the prospect of analyzing a variety of rock types expected to be deposited by catastrophic floods, which would enable addressing first-order scientific questions such as differentiation of the crust, the development of weathering products, and the nature of the early martian environment and its subsequent evolution. The selection was reviewed by an external board at a number of meetings and accepted, and the site was approved by NASA Headquarters. Data gathered by the Pathfinder lander' and rover provides the opportunity to test the predictions made for the site in the selection process based on remote observations from Earth, orbit, and the surface. The discussion below is taken from Golombek et al. to which the reader is referred for a more complete discussion and a complete list of references, which are omitted here for brevity. Many characteristics of the landing site are consistent with its being shaped and deposited by the Ares and Tiu catastrophic floods. The rocky surface is consistent a depositional plain comprising semi-rounded pebbles, cobbles and tabular boulders (some of which appear imbricated and/or inclined in the direction of flow) that appear similar to depositional plains in terrestrial catastrophic floods. The Twin Peaks appear to be streamlined hills in lander images, which is consistent with interpretations of larger hills in Viking orbiter images of the region that suggest the lander is on the flank of a broad, gentle ridge trending northeast from Twin Peaks. This ridge, which is the rise to the north of the lander, is aligned in the downstream direction from the Ares and Tiu Valles floods, and may be a debris tail deposited in the wake of the Twin Peaks. Channels visible throughout the scene may be a result of late stage drainage. As predicted by delay-Doppler radar measurements and tracking results, the average elevation of the center of the site was about the same as Viking Lander I relative to the 6.1 mbar geoid. The Doppler tracking and two-way ranging estimate for the elevation of the spacecraft is only 45 in lower than the Viking I Lander and within 100 in of that expected, which is within the uncertainties of the measurements. After landing, surface pressures and winds (5-10 m/s) were found to be similar to expectations based on Viking data, although temperatures were about 10 K warmer. The temperature profile below 50 km was also roughly 20 K warmer. As a result, predicted densities were 5% higher near the surface and up to 40% lower at 50 km but within the entry, descent and landing design margins. The populations of craters and small hills and the slopes of the hills measured in high-resolution (38 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and the radar derived slopes of the landing site are all consistent with observations of these properties in the lander images. A rocky surface was expected from Viking Infra-Red Thermal Mapper (IRTM) observations and comparisons with the Viking landing sites. The observed cumulative fraction of area covered by rocks with diameters greater than 3 cm and heights greater than 0.5 in (potentially hazardous to landing) at Ares is similar to that predicted by IRTM observations and models of Viking lander and Earth analog rock size-frequency distributions. The IRTM prediction postulated an effective thermal inertia of 30 (10(exp -3) cgs units - cal/cubic cm/s(exp 0.5)/K) for the rock population, but we obtain a slightly different effective thermal inertia for the actual rock population. The validity of interpretations of radar echoes prior to landing are supported by a simple radar echo model, an estimate of the reflectivity of the soil from its bulk density, and the fraction of area covered by rocks. In the calculations, the soil produces the quasi-specular echo and the rocks produce the diffuse echo. The derived quasispecular cross section is comparable to the cross-sections and reflectivities reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. The model yields a diffuse echo that is modestly larger than the polarized diffuse echo reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. At 12.5-cm wavelength, similar rock populations at Ares and the Viking I site were expected because the diffuse echoes are comparable, but the large normal reflectivities suggests that bulk densities of the soils at depth are greater than those at the surface. We also obtain a fine-component inertia near 8.4 which agrees with the fine-component inertia of 8.7 (in 10(exp -3) cgs units) estimated from thermal observations from orbit by the IRTM; for this estimate, we used a bulk thermal inertia of 10.4 for the landing site, an effective thermal inertia near 40 (10(exp -3) cgs units) for the rock population, and a graphical representation of Kieffer's model. Color and albedo data for Ares suggested surfaces of materials at Ares Vallis would be relatively dust free or unweathered prior to landing compared with the materials at the Viking landing sites. This suggestion is supported by the abundance of relatively dark-gray rocks at Ares and their relative rarity at the Viking landing sites, where rocks are commonly coated with bright red dust. Finally, the 40 km long Ephrata Fan of the Channeled Scabland in Washington state, which was deposited where c

Golombek, M. P.↗

Musing over Microbes in Microgravity: Microbial Physiology Flight Experiment

New York City, the most populated city in the United States, is home to over 8 million humans. This means over 26,000 people per square mile! Imagine, though, what the view would be if you peeked into the world of microscopic organisms. Scientists estimate that a gram of soil may contain up to 1 billion of these microbes, which is as much as the entire human population of China! Scientists also know that the world of microbes is incredibly diverse-possibly 10,000 different species in one gram of soil - more than all the different types of mammals in the world. Microbes fill every niche in the world - from 20 miles below the Earth's surface to 20 miles above, and at temperatures from less than -20 C to hotter than water's boiling point. These organisms are ubiquitous because they can adapt quickly to changing environments, an effective strategy for survival. Although we may not realize it, microbes impact every aspect of our lives. Bacteria and fungi help us break down the food in our bodies, and they help clean the air and water around us. They can also cause the dark, filmy buildup on the shower curtain as well as, more seriously, illness and disease. Since humans and microbes share space on Earth, we can benefit tremendously from a better understanding of the workings and physiology of the microbes. This insight can help prevent any harmful effects on humans, on Earth and in space, as well as reap the benefits they provide. Space flight is a unique environment to study how microbes adapt to changing environmental conditions. To advance ground-based research in the field of microbiology, this STS-107 experiment will investigate how microgravity affects bacteria and fungi. Of particular interest are the growth rates and how they respond to certain antimicrobial substances that will be tested; the same tests will be conducted on Earth at the same times. Comparing the results obtained in flight to those on Earth, we will be able to examine how microgravity induces physiological changes in the microbes.

Schweickart, Randolph↗

Studies of Extreme Carbon Stars: Periods From Optical Spectral Characteristics - 2

Rocket and satellite IR sky surveys have revealed vast populations of extreme AGB stars with substantial circumstellar dust shells. It is normally assumed that these shells permit essentially no light to escape. However, using the Lick 3 meter reflector we have been able to secure and analyze a large number of spectra of a well-defined sample of these extreme evolved stars. From this archive we have determined that these objects are all long period Mira variables and have estimated their periods, correlated these with IR photometric variations, and deduced distances to the stars. The data reveal a population of disk carbon-giants, typically of 1-2 yr periods, mostly within 2 kpc of the sun. We have also been able to quantify the thickness of their dust shells.

Cohen, Martin↗

Plasma diagnostics for the outer solar corona - UV and XUV Fe XII lines

The formation of the UV and XUV spectral lines of Fe XII in the outer corona was investigated. The results indicate that these lines can be an important tool for probing the physical conditions in the coronal regions where the solar wind is generated. The Fe XII lines can be particularly useful for determining outflow velocities of heavy ions in the solar wind and for providing critical empirical constraints on energy transport and dissipation mechanisms in the solar wind acceleration region. Application of the theoretical calculations to existing UV, EUV, and XUV observations of the low corona provide evidence that: (1) the inclusion of the effects of resonances in the collision strengths for the low-lying levels of Fe XII is important, (2) that the contributions of resonances for these levels are even larger than the estimates given in the present paper, and (3) that the collision strengths used here yield populations for these levels which are accurate to a factor of 2. These results have implications concerning the accuracy of abundances and densities derived from observations of the Fe XII lines in the low corona.

Withbroe, G. L.↗

A Case Study for Probabilistic Methods Validation (MSFC Center Director's Discretionary Fund, Project No. 94-26)

Probabilistic method is not a universally accepted approach for the design and analysis of aerospace structures. The validity of this approach must be demonstrated to encourage its acceptance as it viable design and analysis tool to estimate structural reliability. The objective of this Study is to develop a well characterized finite population of similar aerospace structures that can be used to (1) validate probabilistic codes, (2) demonstrate the basic principles behind probabilistic methods, (3) formulate general guidelines for characterization of material drivers (such as elastic modulus) when limited data is available, and (4) investigate how the drivers affect the results of sensitivity analysis at the component/failure mode level.

Price J. M.↗

The NASA-Sponsored Study of Cataract in Astronauts (NASCA). Relationship of Exposure to Radiation in Space and the Risk of Cataract Incidence and Progression. Report 1: Recruitment and Methodology

The NASA Study of Cataract in Astronauts (NASCA) is a five-year, multi-centered, investigation of lens opacification in populations of U.S. astronauts, military pilots, and ground-based (nonaviator) comparison participants. For astronauts, the explanatory variable of most interest is radiation exposure during space flight, however to properly evaluate its effect, the secondary effects of age, nutrition, general health, solar ocular exposure, and other confounding variables encountered in non-space flight must also be considered. NASCA contains an initial baseline, cross-sectional objective assessment of the severity of cortical (C), nuclear (N), and posterior subcapsular (PSC) lens opacification, and annual follow-on assessments of severity and progression of these opacities in the population of astronauts and in participants sampled from populations of military pilots and ground-based exposure controls. From these data, NASCA will estimate the degree to which space radiation affects lens opacification for astronauts and how the overall risks of each cataract type for astronauts compared with those of the other exposure control groups after adjusting for differences in age and other explanatory variables.

Chylack, Leo T.↗

Evaluation of Solid Rocket Motor Component Data Using a Commercially Available Statistical Software Package

Commercially available software packages today allow users to quickly perform the routine evaluations of (1) descriptive statistics to numerically and graphically summarize both sample and population data, (2) inferential statistics that draws conclusions about a given population from samples taken of it, (3) probability determinations that can be used to generate estimates of reliability allowables, and finally (4) the setup of designed experiments and analysis of their data to identify significant material and process characteristics for application in both product manufacturing and performance enhancement. This paper presents examples of analysis and experimental design work that has been conducted using Statgraphics®(Registered Trademark) statistical software to obtain useful information with regard to solid rocket motor propellants and internal insulation material. Data were obtained from a number of programs (Shuttle, Constellation, and Space Launch System) and sources that include solid propellant burn rate strands, tensile specimens, sub‐scale test motors, full‐scale operational motors, rubber insulation specimens, and sub‐scale rubber insulation analog samples. Besides facilitating the experimental design process to yield meaningful results, statistical software has demonstrated its ability to quickly perform complex data analyses and yield significant findings that might otherwise have gone unnoticed. One caveat to these successes is that useful results not only derive from the inherent power of the software package, but also from the skill and understanding of the data analyst.

Stefanski, Philip L.↗

Limitations to Biomass Estimation for FAV Using NDVI Analysis of Satellite Acquisitions

The distribution and standing biomass (mass per unit area) of Floating Aquatic Vegetation (FAV)provide assessment metrics for productivity of vegetative communities. Remote sensing acquisition data has been used to estimate standing biomass in various ecosystems using vegetation indices, particularly the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), comparing the relative strength of radiation absorbance and reflectance of vegetation in specific wavebands. Obstacles to estimating vegetation biomass using NDVI reported are related to diversity of the vegetation community and high-density saturation. We evaluate the potential for using NDVI derived estimates for FAV biomass in the California Delta by focusing on patches of predominantly single species and compare biomass estimates for specific patches with measurement of total biomass and partitioning within the vegetation canopy. Using Landsat satellite acquisitions, biomass estimates are made for individual pixels and vegetation samples were collected from those same pixels. Focus on patches of predominantly single FAV species resulted in successful estimation of standing biomass beyond that previously reported in other ecosystems. A saturation response for the estimations was observed, however, with a much higher threshold high than previously reported for diverse population aquatic ecosystems. We discuss the likely cause for the saturation phenomenon and potential improvement utilizing altered spectral indices possible with higher spectral resolution from satellites carrying higher waveband multispectral and hyperspectral instruments.

Biomass↗

Broader Impacts and Outreach Videos on Ocean Physics and Biogeochemistry

This is just a preliminary NF1676 in advance of filming for a project....A convergent team of experts in biology, chemistry, physics, engineering, mathematics, and computational modeling examine how dynamic and coupled phytoplankton-pathogen-particle-predator linkages coalesce to explain the observed high spatial variability in the efficiency of the export of particulate organic carbon (POC) to the deep ocean. They elucidate and quantify the linkages between viruses and ballast minerals to increase understanding of carbon cycling in the oceanic biological carbon pump and the impact of viruses within it. By providing knowledge than can be used to improve the parameterization of carbon export in Earth system models, the project will help reduce uncertainty in regional marine biogeochemical projections, potentially improving marine ecosystem and fisheries management on timescales from seasons to decades. The project includes activities that provide teaching resources and hands-on training to educators within a ‘Tools of Science’ program that provides a simple and succinct way to communicate the process of scientific research to students in a way that is useful to teachers. The project couples laboratory-based experiments on model host-virus-grazer systems with extensive field based observational and manipulative studies on natural populations of diatoms and coccolithophores, the two phytoplankton groups that account for most of the estimated particulate organic matter flux to the deep ocean. Experiments and measurements integrate diagnostic biological and chemical controls on infection and particle coagulation theory with microscale physics and grazing to quantify links to each hypothesized export mechanism under field-relevant turbulent conditions. Cutting-edge engineering and analytical tools are used to diagnose and track infection dynamics while characterizing and quantifying particle aggregation and disaggregation, mineral dissolution, sinking dynamics, grazing rates, and fecal pellet production at unprecedented resolution and under well-defined, microscale physical regimes. Field campaigns elucidate the relative efficiency of hypothesized mechanisms in stimulating POC export in natural blooms, while providing bulk and size-resolved estimates of POC flux.

Daniel B Whitt↗

Precipitation over the U.S. Coastal Land/Water Using Gauge-Corrected Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System and Three Satellite Products

The weather and climate over the coastal regions have received increasing attention because of substantial population growth, the rising sea level, and extreme weather. Satellite remote sensing provides global precipitation estimates (including coastal land/ocean). While these datasets have been extensively evaluated over land, they have rarely been assessed over coastal ocean. As precipitation radars cover both coastal land and ocean, we used the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS) gauge-corrected precipitation product from 2018 to 2020 to evaluate three widely used satellite-based precipitation products over the U.S. coastal land versus the ocean (and the water over the Great Lakes). These products included the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH). The MRMS data showed a precipitation climatology difference between the coastal land and the ocean that was higher in the winter and lower in the summer and autumn. IMERG and CMORPH performed best over land and water, respectively, while PERSIANN was the most consistent in its performance over land versus water. Heavy precipitation was overestimated by the three products, with larger overestimates over water than over land. These results were not affected by the MRMS uncertainties due to the gauge correction or by the use of different versions.

coastal precipitation↗

L2-Charged Particle Environment (L2-CPE)Low Energy Radiation Fluence Model

The L2 Charged Particle Environment (L2-CPE) model provides estimates of number flux and fluence for the low energy electron, proton, and alpha particle populations in the near Earth solar wind and the Earth’s distant magnetosheath and magnetotail. The model is an engineering tool for specifying radiation environments over an energy range from a few eV to a few MeV of importance to surface dose and radiation damage to thin space exposed materials and is intended for use in space system design applications. Mission fluences are obtained by simulating a spacecraft flight trajectory through time-dependent bow shock and magnetopause boundaries with dimensions and orientations driven by solar wind parameters. Monte Carlo sampling of flux environments within individual plasma regimes and/or fluence accumulated along a fight trajectory through multiple regimes is used to determine statistical variations (means and extremes) of the differential number flux and fluence environments for each of the three charged particle species. Model output is differential (in energy) number fluence and flux for the three particle species in units of particles/cm2-keV and particles/cm2-sec-keV, respectively. Users can select the energy range of interest but the current version of the code (L2-CPE Version 1.4.2d) is limited to an energy range of 1 eV to 10 MeV. Flux is integrated over angle to give flux and fluence to surfaces in the ±XGSE, ±YGSE, and/or ±ZGSE directions. Figure 1 shows the opening screen from the L2-CPE graphical user interface (GUI) with options for flux, fluence, plotting model output. The flux scene generate is not currently implemented in the GUI.

Joseph I Minow↗

The Updated GEO Population for ORDEM 3.1

The limited availability of data for satellite fragmentations and debris in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) region creates challenges to building accurate models for the orbital debris environment at such altitudes. Updated methods to properly incorporate and extrapolate measurement data have become a cornerstone of the GEO component in the newest version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), ORDEM 3.1. For the GEO region, the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog provides coverage down to a limit of approximately 1 m. A more statistically complete representation of the GEO population for smaller objects, which can pose a high risk to operational spacecraft, is thus dependent on dedicated observations by instruments optimized to observe debris smaller than the SSN cataloging threshold. For ORDEM 3.1, optical data from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST) provided the input for building the GEO population down to approximately 30 cm (converting absolute magnitude to size). For smaller sizes, the size distribution of debris in the MODEST dataset was extrapolated down to 10 cm, and orbital parameters were estimated based on the orbits of the larger objects. When compared to previous versions of the model, significant improvements were made to the process of building the GEO population in ORDEM 3.1, both in the assessment of fragmentation debris in the data and assignment of orbital elements within the model. A so-called “debris ring filter,” based on a range of angles between an orbit’s angular momentum vector and that of the stable Laplace plane, was applied to the data to reduce biases from non- GEO objects, such as objects in a GEO-transfer orbit. In addition, a new approach was implemented to assign noncircular mean motions and eccentricities to the fragmentation debris observed by MODEST because the short observation window (5 min) in GEO limits orbit resolution to a circular orbit assumption for assigning orbital parameters. For ORDEM 3.1, non-circular orbital elements were assigned using relationships that were identified between mean motion and the angle between the orbit plane and the stable Laplace plane, as well as between mean motion and eccentricity, based on breakup clouds modeled by the NASA Standard Breakup Model. This approach has yielded a high-fidelity GEO model that has been validated with data from more recent MODEST observation campaigns.

Manis, A.↗

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗

How emissions uncertainty influences the distribution and radiative impacts of smoke from fires in North America

Fires and the aerosols that they emit impact air quality, health, and climate, but the abundance and properties of carbonaceous aerosol (both black carbon and organic carbon) from biomass burning (BB) remain uncertain and poorly constrained. We aim to explore the uncertainties associated with fire emissions and their air quality and radiative impacts from underlying dry matter consumed and emissions factors. To investigate this, we compare model simulations from a global chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, driven by a variety of fire emission inventories with surface and airborne observations of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD). We focus on two fire-detection-based and/or burned-area-based (FD-BA) inventories using burned area and active fire counts, respectively, i.e., the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 (GFED4s) with small fires and the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.5 (FINN1.5), and two fire radiative power (FRP)-based approaches, i.e., the Quick Fire Emission Dataset version 2.4 (QFED2.4) and the Global Fire Assimilation System version 1.2 (GFAS1.2). We show that, across the inventories, emissions of BB aerosol (BBA) differ by a factor of 4 to 7 over North America and that dry matter differences, not emissions factors, drive this spread. We find that simulations driven by QFED2.4 generally overestimate BC and, to a lesser extent, OA concentrations observations from two fire-influenced aircraft campaigns in North America (ARCTAS and DC3) and from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, while simulations driven by FINN1.5 substantially underestimate concentrations. The GFED4s and GFAS1.2-driven simulations provide the best agreement with OA and BC mass concentrations at the surface (IMPROVE), BC observed aloft (DC3 and ARCTAS), and AOD observed by MODIS over North America. We also show that a sensitivity simulation including an enhanced source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from fires, based on the NOAA Fire Lab 2016 experiments, produces substantial additional OA; however, the spread in the primary emissions estimates implies that this magnitude of SOA can be neither confirmed nor ruled out when comparing the simulations against the observations explored here. Given the substantial uncertainty in fire emissions, as represented by these four emission inventories, we find a sizeable range in 2012 annual BBA PM2.5 population-weighted exposure over Canada and the contiguous US (0.5 to 1.6 µg/cu. m). We also show that the range in the estimated global direct radiative effect of carbonaceous aerosol from fires (−0.11 to −0.048 W/sq. m) is large and comparable to the direct radiative forcing of OA (−0.09 W/sq. m) estimated in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our analysis suggests that fire emissions uncertainty challenges our ability to accurately characterize the impact of smoke on air quality and climate.

North America↗