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NASA NTRS2000

FACET: Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool

FACET (Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool) is an Air Traffic Management research tool being developed at the NASA Ames Research Center. This paper describes the design, architecture and functionalities of FACET. The purpose of FACET is to provide E simulation environment for exploration, development and evaluation of advanced ATM concepts. Examples of these concepts include new ATM paradigms such as Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management, airspace redesign and new Decision Support Tools (DSTs) for controllers working within the operational procedures of the existing air traffic control system. FACET is currently capable of modeling system-wide en route airspace operations over the contiguous United States. Airspace models (e.g., Center/sector boundaries, airways, locations of navigation aids and airports) are available from databases. A core capability of FACET is the modeling of aircraft trajectories. Using round-earth kinematic equations, aircraft can be flown along flight plan routes or great circle routes as they climb, cruise and descend according to their individual aircraft-type performance models. Performance parameters (e.g., climb/descent rates and speeds, cruise speeds) are obtained from data table lookups. Heading, airspeed and altitude-rate dynamics are also modeled. Additional functionalities will be added as necessary for specific applications. FACET software is written in Java and C programming languages. It is platform-independent, and can be run on a variety of computers. FACET has been designed with a modular software architecture to enable rapid integration of research prototype implementations of new ATM concepts. There are several advanced ATM concepts that are currently being implemented in FACET airborne separation assurance, dynamic density predictions, airspace redesign (re-sectorization), benefits of a controller DST for direct-routing, and the integration of commercial space transportation system operations into the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS).

Bilmoria, Karl D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Application of the CALIOP Layer Product to Evaluate the Vertical Distribution of Aerosols Estimated by Global Models: AeroCom Phase I Results

The CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) layer product is used for a multimodel evaluation of the vertical distribution of aerosols. Annual and seasonal aerosol extinction profiles are analyzed over 13 sub-continental regions representative of industrial, dust, and biomass burning pollution, from CALIOP 2007-2009 observations and from AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) 2000 simulations. An extinction mean height diagnostic (Z-alpha) is defined to quantitatively assess the models' performance. It is calculated over the 0-6 km and 0-10 km altitude ranges by weighting the altitude of each 100 m altitude layer by its aerosol extinction coefficient. The mean extinction profiles derived from CALIOP layer products provide consistent regional and seasonal specificities and a low inter-annual variability. While the outputs from most models are significantly correlated with the observed Z-alpha climatologies, some do better than others, and 2 of the 12 models perform particularly well in all seasons. Over industrial and maritime regions, most models show higher Z-alpha than observed by CALIOP, whereas over the African and Chinese dust source regions, Z-alpha is underestimated during Northern Hemisphere Spring and Summer. The positive model bias in Z-alpha is mainly due to an overestimate of the extinction above 6 km. Potential CALIOP and model limitations, and methodological factors that might contribute to the differences are discussed.

Aerosols and particles↗
NASA NTRS2010

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Multi-Year Effort to Forward the Validation of Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Models

To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of solar energetic particle (SEP) model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed by the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) in close collaboration with the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NASA Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), and the Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB). SPHINX is being developed to evaluate the SEP Scoreboards (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/scoreboards/sep/), which are being used by SRAG to support space radiation operations for Mission Control. SPHINX is also being developed through a series of community challenges, which have defined a list of challenge events and a prescribed set of rules of participation. The participation of the research community has enabled the generalization of the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models and fully exercised the framework. The most recent challenge includes 30 SEP events and 33 non-event (quiet) periods and was supported by two dedicated SEPVAL working meetings, one in the US and one in Europe (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/community-workshops/ccmc-sepval-2023/). Here, we describe SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-VIVID, which will eventually be made available for public use. We present selected results, outcomes, and lessons learned from the SEPVAL working meetings and validation results of the SEP Scoreboards from 2019 to present. These efforts aim to define a set of community standards for SEP model validation and describe the current state-of-the-art of SEP model performance.

Kathryn Whitman↗
NASA NTRS1990

Performance and modeling of superconducting ring resonators at millimeter-wave frequencies

Microstrip ring resonators operating at 35 GHz were fabricated from laser ablated YBCO thin films deposited on lanthanum aluminate substrates. They were measured over a range of temperatures and their performance compared to identical resonators made of evaporated gold. Below 60 Kelvin the superconducting strip performed better than the gold, reaching an unloaded Q approximately 1.5 times that of gold at 25 K. A shift in the resonant frequency follows the form predicted by the London equations. The Phenomenological Loss Equivalence Method is applied to the ring resonator and the theoretically calculated Q values are compared to the experimental results.

Bhasin, K. B.↗
NASA NTRS1979

METAPHOR: Programmer's guide, Version 1

The internal structure of the Michigan Evaluation Aid for Perphormability (METAPHOR), an interactive software package to facilitate performability modeling and evaluation is described. Revised supplemented guides are prepared in order to maintain an up-to-date documentation of the system. Programmed tools to facilitate each step of performability model construction and model solution are given.

Furchtgott, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Simulation Modeling and Performance Evaluation of Space Networks

In space exploration missions, the coordinated use of spacecraft as communication relays increases the efficiency of the endeavors. To conduct trade-off studies of the performance and resource usage of different communication protocols and network designs, JPL designed a comprehensive extendable tool, the Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE). The design and development of MACHETE began in 2000 and is constantly evolving. Currently, MACHETE contains Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) protocol standards such as Proximity-1, Advanced Orbiting Systems (AOS), Packet Telemetry/Telecommand, Space Communications Protocol Specification (SCPS), and the CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP). MACHETE uses the Aerospace Corporation s Satellite Orbital Analysis Program (SOAP) to generate the orbital geometry information and contact opportunities. Matlab scripts provide the link characteristics. At the core of MACHETE is a discrete event simulator, QualNet. Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is an end-to-end architecture providing communication in and/or through highly stressed networking environments. Stressed networking environments include those with intermittent connectivity, large and/or variable delays, and high bit error rates. To provide its services, the DTN protocols reside at the application layer of the constituent internets, forming a store-and-forward overlay network. The key capabilities of the bundling protocols include custody-based reliability, ability to cope with intermittent connectivity, ability to take advantage of scheduled and opportunistic connectivity, and late binding of names to addresses. In this presentation, we report on the addition of MACHETE models needed to support DTN, namely: the Bundle Protocol (BP) model. To illustrate the use of MACHETE with the additional DTN model, we provide an example simulation to benchmark its performance. We demonstrate the use of the DTN protocol and discuss statistics gathered concerning the total time needed to simulate numerous bundle transmissions

network protocols↗
NASA NTRS2006

Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Phenomenological Verification Techniques

Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, 45th Weather Squadron, and National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL use mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output in creating their operational forecasts. These models aid in forecasting weather phenomena that could compromise the safety of launch, landing, and daily ground operations and must produce reasonable weather forecasts in order for their output to be useful in operations. Considering the importance of model forecasts to operations, their accuracy in forecasting critical weather phenomena must be verified to determine their usefulness. The currently-used traditional verification techniques involve an objective point-by-point comparison of model output and observations valid at the same time and location. The resulting statistics can unfairly penalize high-resolution models that make realistic forecasts of a certain phenomena, but are offset from the observations in small time and/or space increments. Manual subjective verification can provide a more valid representation of model performance, but is time-consuming and prone to personal biases. An objective technique that verifies specific meteorological phenomena, much in the way a human would in a subjective evaluation, would likely produce a more realistic assessment of model performance. Such techniques are being developed in the research community. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a literature search to identify phenomenological verification techniques being developed, determine if any are ready to use operationally, and outline the steps needed to implement any operationally-ready techniques into the Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The AMU conducted a search of all literature on the topic of phenomenological-based mesoscale model verification techniques and found 10 different techniques in various stages of development. Six of the techniques were developed to verify precipitation forecasts, one to verify sea breeze forecasts, and three were capable of verifying several phenomena. The AMU also determined the feasibility of transitioning each technique into operations and rated the operational capability of each technique on a subjective 1-10 scale: (1) 1 indicates that the technique is only in the initial stages of development, (2) 2-5 indicates that the technique is still undergoing modifications and is not ready for operations, (3) 6-8 indicates a higher probability of integrating the technique into AWIPS with code modifications, and (4) 9-10 indicates that the technique was created for AWIPS and is ready for implementation. Eight of the techniques were assigned a rating of 5 or below. The other two received ratings of 6 and 7, and none of the techniques a rating of 9-10. At the current time, there are no phenomenological model verification techniques ready for operational use. However, several of the techniques described in this report may become viable techniques in the future and should be monitored for updates in the literature. The desire to use a phenomenological verification technique is widespread in the modeling community, and it is likely that other techniques besides those described herein are being developed, but the work has not yet been published. Therefore, the AMIU recommends that the literature continue to be monitored for updates to the techniques described in this report and for new techniques being developed whose results have not yet been published. 111

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2019

Initial Results from the GEM Challenge on the Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment

Spacecraft surface charging during geomagnetically disturbed times is one of the most important causes of satellite anomalies. Predicting the surface charging environment is one prevalent task of the geospace environment models. Therefore, the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Focus Group "Inner Magnetosphere Crossenergy/Population Interactions" initiated a communitywide challenge study to assess the capability of several inner magnetosphere ring current models in determining surface charging environment for the Van Allen Probes orbits during the 17 March 2013 storm event. The integrated electron flux between 10 and 50 keV is used as the metrics. Various skill scores are applied to quantitatively measure the modeling performance against observations. Results indicate that no model consistently perform the best in all of the skill scores or for both satellites. We find that from these simulations the ring current model with observational flux boundary condition and Weimer electric potential driver generally reproduces the most realistic flux level around the spacecraft. A simple and weaker VollandStern electric field is not capable of effectively transporting the same plasma at the boundary toward the Earth. On the other hand, if the ring current model solves the electric field selfconsistently and obtains similar strength and pattern in the equatorial plane as the Weimer model, the boundary condition plays another crucial role in determining the electron flux level in the inner region. When the boundary flux spectra based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model/empirical model deviate from the shape or magnitude of the observed distribution function, the simulation produces poor skill scores along Van Allen Probes orbits.

Yu, Yiqun↗
NASA NTRS1992

High temperature furnace modeling and performance verifications

Analytical, numerical, and experimental studies were performed on two classes of high temperature materials processing sources for their potential use as directional solidification furnaces. The research concentrated on a commercially available high temperature furnace using a zirconia ceramic tube as the heating element and an Arc Furnace based on a tube welder. The first objective was to assemble the zirconia furnace and construct parts needed to successfully perform experiments. The 2nd objective was to evaluate the zirconia furnace performance as a directional solidification furnace element. The 3rd objective was to establish a data base on materials used in the furnace construction, with particular emphasis on emissivities, transmissivities, and absorptivities as functions of wavelength and temperature. A 1-D and 2-D spectral radiation heat transfer model was developed for comparison with standard modeling techniques, and were used to predict wall and crucible temperatures. The 4th objective addressed the development of a SINDA model for the Arc Furnace and was used to design sample holders and to estimate cooling media temperatures for the steady state operation of the furnace. And, the 5th objective addressed the initial performance evaluation of the Arc Furnace and associated equipment for directional solidification. Results of these objectives are presented.

Smith, James E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Distributed Space Mission Design for Earth Observation Using Model-Based Performance Evaluation

Distributed Space Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to earth observation missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in multiple dimensions. DSM design is a complex problem with many design variables, multiple objectives determining performance and cost and emergent, often unexpected, behaviors. There are very few open-access tools available to explore the tradespace of variables, minimize cost and maximize performance for pre-defined science goals, and therefore select the most optimal design. This paper presents a software tool that can multiple DSM architectures based on pre-defined design variable ranges and size those architectures in terms of predefined science and cost metrics. The tool will help a user select Pareto optimal DSM designs based on design of experiments techniques. The tool will be applied to some earth observation examples to demonstrate its applicability in making some key decisions between different performance metrics and cost metrics early in the design lifecycle.

Constellation↗
NASA NTRS2012

Design and Performance of Lift-Offset Rotorcraft for Short-Haul Missions

The design and performance of compound helicopters utilizing lift-offset rotors are examined, in the context of short-haul, medium-size civil and military missions. The analysis tools used are the comprehensive analysis CAMRAD II and the sizing code NDARC. Following correlation of the comprehensive analysis with existing lift-offset aircraft flight test data, the rotor performance model for the sizing code was developed, and an initial estimate was made of the rotor size and key hover and cruise flight conditions. The rotor planform and twist were optimized for those conditions, and the sizing code rotor performance model updated. Two models for estimating the blade and hub weight of lift-offset rotors are discussed. The civil and military missions are described, along with the aircraft design assumptions. The aircraft are sized for 30 passengers or 6600 lb payload, with a range of 300 nm. Civil and military aircraft designs are described for each of the rotor weight models. Disk loading and blade loading were varied to optimize the designs, based on gross weight and fuel burn. The influence of technology is shown, in terms of rotor hub drag and rotor weight.

Johnson, Wayne↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Surface Radiation Balance Data Set from Siple Dome in West Antarctica for Atmospheric and Climate Model Evaluation

A field campaign at Siple Dome in West Antarctica during the austral summer 2019-2020 offers an opportunity to evaluate climate model performance, particularly cloud microphysical simulation. Over Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves, clouds are a major regulator of the surface energy balance, and in the warm season their presence occasionally induces surface melt that can gradually weaken an ice shelf structure. This dataset from Siple Dome, obtained using transportable and solar-poweredequipment, includes surface energy balance measurements, meteorology and cloud remote sensing. To demonstrate how these data can be used to evaluate model performance, comparisons are made with meteorological reanalysis known to give generally good performance over Antarctica (ERA5). Surface albedo measurements show expected variability with observed cloud amount, and can be used to evaluate a model's snowpack parameterization. One case study discussed involves a squall with northerly winds, during which ERA5 fails to produce cloud cover throughout one of the days. A second case study illustrates how shortwave spectroradiometer measurements that encompass the 1.6-micron atmospheric window reveal cloud phase transitions associated with cloud lifecycle. Here, continuously precipitating mixed-phase clouds become mainly liquid water clouds from local morning through the afternoon, not reproduced by ERA5. We challenge researchers to run their various regional or global models in a manner that has the large-scale meteorology follow the conditions of this field campaign, compare cloud and radiation simulations with this Siple Dome dataset, and potentially investigate why cloud microphysical simulations or other model components might produce discrepancies with these observations.

cloud remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2017

Comparative Study of Three Reconnection X Line Models at the Earth's Dayside Magnetopause Using in Situ Observations

This work examines the large-scale aspects of magnetic field reconnection at the Earth's dayside magnetopause. We use two sets of reconnection events, which are identified mostly by the in situ detection of accelerated and Alfvenic plasma flows. We intercompare three analytical models that predict the reconnection X line location and orientation, namely, the Trattner et al. (2007) and Swisdak and Drake (2007) models and also a modified version of the component merging model. In the first set of reconnection observations, we show three fortuitous, quasi-simultaneous dayside magnetopause crossing events where two widely separated spacecraft detect reconnection signatures, and the X line location and orientation can be inferred from the observations. We compare X line model predictions to those inferred from observations. These three reconnection events indicate the presence of an extended (greater than 7 Earth radii in length), component-type reconnection X line on Earth's dayside magnetopause connecting and structuring the reconnection signatures at locations far apart. In the second set of reconnection events, we analyze the X line models' performance in predicting the observed reconnection outflow direction, i.e., its north-south and/or east-west senses, in a total of 75 single, rather than multiple and quasi-simultaneous, magnetopause crossing events, where reconnection-associated plasma flows were clearly present. We found that the Swisdak and Drake's (2007) X line model performs slightly better, albeit not statistically significant, when predicting both accelerated plasma flow north-south and east-west components in 73% and 53% of the cases, respectively, as compared to the Trattner et al. (2007) model (70% north-south and 42% east-west) and the modified component merging model (66% north-south and 50% east-west).

Souza, V. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Marin County Wildland Fires: Examining Fuel Load and Land Cover Change to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, CA

Heightened occurrence of severe wildfires in the Western United States is increasing the need to better understand regions of high potential wild fire severity and develop methodologies for identifying the best locations for fuels reduction and active wildfire suppression, especially in populated regions such as Marin County, California. Marin County, located in the San Francisco Bay Area, has had significant development in the wildland-urban interface and periods of highly wildfire-prone conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with Fire Foundry, a Marin-based fire service work force development program, to develop new models to assist with fire management. Using data from Sentinel-2A, Planet Scope, ECOSTRESS, a county-wide LiDAR mapping effort, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the team developed several input data layers to three models evaluating wild fire severity. One model performed a suitability analysis with weights based on scientific literature, another utilized machine learning based on past fires in Marin and neighboring Sonoma County to predict the difference normalized burn ratio, and the third inputted data layers into the Flam Map tool, which outputs risk categories. The team compared model outputs and, using the best-fit model, performed fuzzy logic analysis to identify specific locations where a fire break could be constructed to interrupt the progress of an active fire. These tools were proven useful and will assist partners in preparing for and managing an active wildfire event.

Suhani Dalal↗
NASA NTRS2009

Information Presentation

The goal of the Information Presentation Directed Research Project (DRP) is to address design questions related to the presentation of information to the crew. In addition to addressing display design issues associated with information formatting, style, layout, and interaction, the Information Presentation DRP is also working toward understanding the effects of extreme environments encountered in space travel on information processing. Work is also in progress to refine human factors-based design tools, such as human performance modeling, that will supplement traditional design techniques and help ensure that optimal information design is accomplished in the most cost-efficient manner. The major areas of work, or subtasks, within the Information Presentation DRP for FY10 are: 1) Displays, 2) Controls, 3) Procedures and Fault Management, and 4) Human Performance Modeling. The poster will highlight completed and planned work for each subtask.

Holden, Kritina L.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Future CH4 Budgets as Modelled By A Fully Coupled Earth System Model Using Prescribed GHG Concentrations vs. Interactive CH4 Sources and Sinks

We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios. GISS-E2.1 is one of the few ESMs that can be driven by anthropogenic CH4 emissions, as well as interactive natural sources such as wetlands, and can simulate the tropospheric CH4 chemistry. In frame of the recent short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) assessment by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), we used the GISS-E2.1 model with prescribed long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. In the present study, we have supplemented these simulations using the interactive CH4 sources and sinks in order to quantify the model performance and the sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the Eclipse V6b emission database to simulate the future chemical composition and climate impacts from 2015 to 2050. We have also simulated 1995-2014 in order to evaluate the model performance following the AMAP-SLCF protocol. The prescribed GHG version underestimates the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) surface CH4 observations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1% [-8.4%-2.0%], with a correlation (r) of 0.71 [-0.41 0.99]. The largest underestimations are over the continental emission regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia, while biases are smallest over oceans. On the other hand, the simulation with interactive sources and sinks underestimates the GAW observations more than the prescribed simulation, by 18.5% [-25% -10.4%], with a lower r of 0.36 [-0.82 0.93]. Opposite to the prescribed simulation, the biases are largest over oceans and smaller over the continents, however they are still larger over land than the prescribed simulation. The interactive simulation, with large sources virtually over land and strong sink over oceans, has a land/ocean ratio larger than 1 while the prescribed simulation has this ratio equal to 1 as it distributes the global prescribed CH4 concentration equally in longitude over a given latitude. This clearly shows that the interactive sources and sinks should be represented in models in order to realistically simulate the chemical composition and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. As expected, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In the CLE scenario, increases are largest over the equatorial belt, in particular over India and East China, while the MFR scenario shows increases over the whole Southern Hemisphere, however much smaller compared to CLE. Finally, the interactive simulation shows that the chemical CH4 sink increases in the CLE scenario, while it slightly decreases in the MFR, leading to a larger CH4 lifetime in the MFR scenario compared to in the CLE scenario.

CH4↗
NASA NTRS2007

Observations on Cost Modeling and Performance Measurement of Long Term Archives

This paper describes a prototype suite of Excel-based tools that could be used for estimating lifecycle costs for newly planned or modified long-term archival facilities. These tools may also prove valuable for monitoring the long-term performance of such facilities once operational. Cost estimation is by analogy, using statistical curve-fitting techniques across a database of comparable data activities. The database currently includes 29 operational data centers ranging from small (2 FTEs) to large (66 FTEs), and is readily expandable to include additional activities specifically involving data preservation and added value. Each comparable data center is described in terms of its staffing, throughput workload, archival and distribution requirements, levels of user service, overall complexity, degree of automation, and other data, comprising 94 distinct descriptors in all. The descriptors were developed by normalizing heterogeneous data from the various centers and mapping them into an Excel framework consistent with the OAIS reference model. A user-friendly tool is provided for generating input to and updating the comparables database. This tool can also be used to benchmark the performance (in terms of cost versus throughput) of an operational data center, and to update the staffing, cost and workload data on a periodic basis. The comparables database could thus provide a history of staffing and throughput over time, as a means of performance monitoring and providing feedback for continuous improvement. Ancillary tools are also provided for performing "what-if' cost exercises for planning purposes, and for graphical display of data and results. We provide a high-level description of the tools; present our experiences and observations on gathering the information and maintaining the database; and discuss how this tool set might be applied to long term archives.

Fontaine, Kathy↗