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DOE OSTI2026

Effectively Considering the Distribution System in Integrated Resource Plans

While electricity planning practices vary by state and utility based on utility type and market structure, integrated resource planning (IRP) remains a prominent vehicle — even in states with centrally-organized wholesale electricity markets. IRP focuses on meeting forecasted long-term electricity needs. Typically, utilities have not considered impacts of design and operation of the low-voltage distribution network in IRP. With advanced capabilities of grid-edge technologies to generate and store electricity and provide load flexibility, and large utility investments in distribution systems, it's increasingly important to consider at least some distribution planning elements in IRP. This report considers the value proposition for doing so, such as reducing utility costs through resource co-optimization and strategic siting of grid-edge resources, and idenfities the most important touchpoints between planning for bulk power and distribution systems and provide a range of tactics for integrating these two processes.

Relf, Grace [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data and code repository for "How do the weather regimes drive wind speed and power production at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over the CONUS?"

There has been an increasing need for forecasting power generation at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales to support the operation, management, and planning of the wind-energy system. At the S2S timescales, atmospheric variability is largely related to recurrent and persistent weather patterns, referred to as weather regimes (WRs). In the study "How do the weather regimes drive wind speed and power production at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over the CONUS?", we identify four WRs that influence wind resources over North America using a self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm. These WRs are responsible for large-scale wind and power production anomalies over the CONUS at the S2S timescales. The WR-based reconstruction explains up to 50% of the monthly variance of power production over the western United States, and the explanatory power generally increases with the increase of timescales. The identified relationship between WRs and power production reveals the potential and limitations of the regional WR-based wind resource assessment over different regions of the CONUS across multiple timescales. This repository includes all the data and codes we use for analyses in this study. Users may use them to reproduce the results of this study on their end.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Ultra-filtration(UF) units are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square (RMSE) metric. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing CCRO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks that enhance process efficiency and reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulations of Geologic Storage Reservoir Management to Support Risk Mitigation Evaluation

This report provides a detailed description of a set of numerical simulations that represent reservoir behavior over time in response to different operational decision scenarios for detection of potential leakage and reduction or avoidance of leakage impact at a hypothetical geological carbon storage (GCS) site. These simulations serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), and a demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for evaluation of mitigation strategies based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming. Four injection scenarios were considered: a constant rate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection case (base case), a case with CO 2 injection rate adjustment, a case with early termination of injection operations, and a case with brine extraction. CO 2 injection operations were controlled to ensure that the pressure transient remains below the defined manageable reservoir fracture pressure, with consideration shown to hypothetical locations within the modeled spatial domain where the overburden was weaker and lower transient pressure increases were allowable. Additionally, a brine extraction alternative was considered as a reservoir management and risk mitigation option to reduce reservoir pressure, steer the plume away from any hypothetical geohazard such as fault as needed, and enhance storage capacity. Such operational actions contribute to risk management overtime. This study explores the potential utility of reservoir management for risk reduction at GCS sites. This study shows that the injection design may modify the time to CO 2 breakthrough at a legacy well; in particular, these results show that brine extraction can add value for mitigating risk both by delaying leakage and reducing pressure build-up. For the scenario considered, both pressure plots and pressure distributions demonstrate that pressure build-up was decreased by 3% with brine extraction. Additionally, extraction of brine afforded enhancement of CO 2 storage capacity by 5% compared to the base case. These findings suggest that brine extraction has substantial potential to steer the risk-related reservoir effects away from known geohazards (e.g., faults and legacy wells) by conducting pressure transient effects and CO 2 plume movement toward the production well. Injection rate adjustment scenarios considered in this study show potential value for managing both reservoir pressure transients and CO 2 plume behavior. Operational actions for reducing injection and/or early termination of injection (as compared to the base case), however, require careful design; tailoring both the extent and timing of injection rate adjustment over the injection and post-injection operational period must be thoroughly planned to balance maximizing storage and minimizing subsurface environmental risk. The study also gives preliminary consideration to the effectiveness that monitoring strategy may play in providing useful information to inform reservoir management decisions for risk reduction. Two types of monitoring were considered: 1) pressure build-up or pressure transient; and 2) potential leakage detection from a CO 2 mass or plume. Four hypothetical legacy wells, two plugged and two abandoned, were placed in the model domain. Monitoring along these wells was measured over time in individual stacked reservoir formations and shale formations to support risk mitigation decisions, especially operational decisions that assisted in risk reduction. These simulations will serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using NRAP’s Open-IAM, and demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for comparative assessment of mitigation alternatives based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resilient Operation of Networked Community Microgrids with High Solar Penetration

This project, funded by the US Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO), focused on the operation of microgrids as a coordinated network. The primary objective, which was successfully achieved, was to develop both control strategies and hardware solutions to support the resilient and efficient operation of networked microgrids with high solar penetration. The work was structured around the following four main tasks: • Development of distributed and scalable optimization algorithms for AC-coupled networked microgrids. • Design and implementation of a novel DC interconnection hardware to enable precise power exchange between microgrids. • Laboratory operational validation of the developed technologies using 480 V testbeds and commercially available hardware. • Field operational validation of the complete solution in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico, interconnecting two kW-scale, split-phase microgrids of Casa Pueblo’s microgrids. This project addressed multiple technical challenges across the domains of optimization, control, hardware interconnection, and protection. One of its key contributions was delivering tangible, real-world solutions for networking microgrids. In contrast to purely theoretical or simulation-based work, this project included full-scale hardware operational validation both in the lab and in the field. The work conducted as part of this project—in collaboration with the University of Puerto Rico; the University of Tennessee, Knoxville; the University of Central Florida; and Casa Pueblo—has advanced the state of the art in networked microgrids. Key contributions include the development of distributed control strategies, practical solutions for real-world implementation challenges, and the introduction of a novel DC interlink approach for microgrid interconnection. The project featured both laboratory and field validation using commercial off-the-shelf components. The field deployment successfully validated that a group of microgrids can operate in a coordinated manner, enabling precise power flow between systems and mutual support during extreme events. This project resulted in 15 journal publications and 15 conference papers; 5 graduate students and 15 undergraduate students were supported. The codes of distributed optimization and forecasting were made open-source through OSTI.gov for distributed optimization and forecasting. All the publications are available in the ORNL-hosted project landing page. The DC interlink with state-of-charge balancing control was operationally validated in Adjuntas by interconnecting two real-world, 240 V split-phase microgrids. To the best knowledge of the team, this represents the first operational validation of AC microgrids interconnected via DC-interlinks. As a culmination of this project, a follow-on grant was awarded to support the technology transfer of the distributed optimization framework to a commercial microgrid controller, Stellar Edge, developed by the California-based company New Sun Road.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Two-Level Model Predictive Control-Based Approach for Building Energy Management including Photovoltaics, Energy Storage, Solar Forecasting and Building Loads

This paper uses a two-level model predictive control-based approach for the coordinated control and energy management of an integrated system that includes photovoltaic (PV) generation, energy storage, and building loads. Novel features of the proposed local controller include (1) the ability to simultaneously manage building loads and energy storage to achieve different operational objectives such as energy efficiency, economic cost efficiency, demand response and grid optimization through the design of specific power trajectory tracking performance functionals, (2) an energy trim function that minimizes the impact of solar forecasting errors on system performance, and (3) the design of a state of charge controller that uses day-ahead forecast of solar power and building loads to intialize energy storage at the start of each day. The local controller is tested in simulation using an exemplary system with PV generation, energy storage and dispatchable building loads. Two sample days with different PV forecasts and multiple case scenarios are considered, and the performance of the algorithm in managing the real and reactive net building load trajectories and the ramp rate of PV injections into the utility network are evaluated. The simulations are based on actual forecasted and measured PV data, and the results show that the local controller meets the tracking requirements for real and reactive power within the operating constraints of the building.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

CRADA Final Report: Open Microgrid Platform

Current microgrid control technology is mostly proprietary, expensive, and inflexible. An open-source, vendor-neutral, publish-subscribe controller will significantly lower the barrier to entry for new technologies and market entrants: inverter, battery, and load control manufacturers; cloud and services providers; and energy aggregators. An OpenFMB controller can significantly reduce the acquisition, integration, and ongoing operating and maintenance costs and increase revenue opportunities for energy producers and consumers. It allows distributed energy resource (DER) owners to replace individual DER components as richer-function, lower-cost devices become available or to incorporate new forecast and optimization algorithms as they are developed. A standard, secure, full-function DER field controller will also provide a low-cost means for grid operators to effectively manage the variability and uncertainty of solar photovoltaics (PV). Under the terms of this CRADA, ORNL has worked with Open Energy Solutions (OES) to advance the transition of ORNL’s existing open-source microgrid controller into a platform geared toward mainstream implementation. Using a more prevalent and memory-safe programming language, Rust, OES has converted ORNL’s current generation on-grid optimization into an application more suitable for industry use. The results of the ported optimization were analyzed by inputting the same arguments in both the current-generation and next-generation optimizers and verifying that the results were equivalent.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems: A state-of-the-art review

Due to the fast advancement of communication and information technology, intelligent buildings have garnered great interest. These buildings can forecast weather, ambient temperature, and sun irradiation and can modify heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) operations appropriately, based on current and previous data. This change is intended to reduce HVAC system energy usage while maintaining an appropriate degree of thermal comfort and indoor air quality. Since its inception, model predictive control (MPC) has been one of the prospective solutions for HVAC management systems to reduce both costs and energy usage. Additionally, MPC is becoming increasingly practical as the processing capacity of building automation systems increases and a large quantity of monitored building data becomes available. MPC also provides the potential to improve the energy efficiency of HVAC systems via its capacity to consider limitations, to predict disruptions, and to factor in multiple competing goals such as interior thermal comfort and building energy consumption. Although substantial research has been conducted on MPC in building HVAC systems, there is a shortage of critical reviews and a lack of a comprehensive framework that formulates and defines the applications. Here, this article provides a comprehensive state-of-the-art overview of MPC in HVAC systems. Detailed discussions of modeling approaches and optimization algorithms are included. Numerous design aspects such as prediction horizon, occupancy behavior, building type, and cost function, that impact MPC performance are discussed in detail. The technical characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages of various types of modeling software are discussed. The primary objective of this work is to highlight critical design characteristics for the MPC control scheme and to give improved suggestions for future research. Moreover, numerous prospective scenarios have been suggested that might provide future research direction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Adaptive-Importance-Sampling-Enhanced Bayesian Approach for Topology Estimation in an Unbalanced Power Distribution System

The reliable operation of a power distribution system relies on a good prior knowledge of its topology and its system state. Although crucial, due to the lack of direct monitoring devices on the switch statuses, the topology information is often unavailable or outdated for the distribution system operators for real-time applications. Apart from the limited observability of the power distribution system, other challenges are the nonlinearity of the model, the complicated, unbalanced structure of the distribution system, and the scale of the system. To overcome the above challenges, we, in this paper, propose a Bayesian-inference framework that allows us to simultaneously estimate the topology and the state of a three-phase, unbalanced power distribution system. Specifically, by using the very limited number of measurements available that are associated with the forecast load data, we efficiently recover the full Bayesian posterior distributions of the system topology under both normal and outage operation conditions. This is performed through an adaptive importance sampling procedure that greatly alleviates the computational burden of the traditional Monte-Carlo (MC)-sampling-based approach while maintaining a good estimation accuracy. The simulations conducted on the IEEE 123-bus test system and an unbalanced 1282-bus system reveal the excellent performances of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Airport Traffic Management and Planning Framework

Initial results from the Athena project show that high-performance computing and high-fidelity traffic simulation can help guide airport traffic management decisions and understand operating bottlenecks.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Absorbing the Sun: Operational Practices and Balancing Reserves in Florida's Municipal Utilities

The Florida Reliability Coordinating Council (FRCC) power system is comprised of multiple balancing authorities ranging in size from Gainesville Regional Utilities (GRU) with a 2019 summer net firm demand of 429 MW to Florida Power & Light with a 2019 summer net firm demand of 22,510 MW; and including cooperative, municipal, and investor-owned utilities. As all of these balancing authorities are and have plants to continue installing significant quantities of utility-scale solar photovoltaics, one relevant question is how much operating reserves they will need to hold as solar penetrations increase. While there are estimates of how regulating and flexibility reserve requirements change with solar penetration, the literature almost exclusively focuses on large balancing authorities with sub-hourly dispatch. In this work we analyze how reserve needs change not only with solar photovoltaic penetration, but also balancing authority size and operational practices. We find that, measured as a fraction of load, smaller balancing authorities with less frequent load and solar forecasts and less frequent dispatch need more reserves. Such utilities' reserve needs also increase more with increasing solar deployment as compared to larger or more frequently dispatched balancing authorities. These impacts are most acute for GRU. We find that moving from day-ahead to hour-ahead load and solar forecasting and system dispatch could enable GRU to incorporate 32% solar generation with median reserves at 20% instead of 60% of load; and that median reserve needs could drop further to about 10% of load if Florida's municipal utilities formed a reserve sharing group and moved to sub-hourly dispatch.

balancing authority↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bridging Hydrological Ensemble Simulation and Learning Using Deep Neural Operators

Ensemble-based simulation and learning (ESnL) has long been used in hydrology for parameter inference, but computational demands of process-based ESnL can be quite high. To address this issue, we propose a deep neural operator learning approach. Neural operators are generic machine learning algorithms that can learn functional mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, providing a highly flexible tool for scientific machine learning. Our approach is built upon DeepONet, a specific deep neural operator, and is designed to address several common problems in hydrology, namely, model parameter estimation, prediction at ungaged locations, and uncertainty quantification. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of our DeepONet-based workflow using an existing large model ensemble created for an eastern U.S. watershed that is instrumented with 10 streamflow gages. Results suggest DeepONet achieves high efficiency in learning an ML surrogate model from the model ensemble, with the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency exceeding 0.9 on holdout test sets. Parameter inference, carried out using the trained DeepONet surrogate model and genetic algorithm, also yields robust results. Additionally, we formulate and train a separate DeepONet model for physics-informed, seq-to-seq streamflow forecasting, which further reduces biases in the pre-trained DeepONet surrogate model. While this study focuses primarily on a single watershed, our approach is general and may be extended to enable learning from model ensembles across multiple basins or models. Thus, this research represents a significant contribution to the application of hybrid machine learning in hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy and Emission Prediction for Mixed-Vehicle Transit Fleets Using Multi-task and Inductive Transfer Learning

Public transit agencies are focused on making their fixed-line bus systems more energy efficient by introducing electric (EV) and hybrid (HV) vehicles to their fleets. However, because of the high upfront cost of these vehicles, most agencies are tasked with managing a mixed-fleet of internal combustion vehicles (ICEVs), EVs, and HVs. In managing mixed-fleets, agencies require accurate predictions of energy use for optimizing the assignment of vehicles to transit routes, scheduling charging, and ensuring that emission standards are met. The current state-of-the-art is to develop separate neural network models to predict energy consumption for each vehicle class. Although different vehicle classes’ energy consumption depends on a varied set of covariates, we hypothesize that there are broader generalizable patterns that govern energy consumption and emissions. In this paper, we seek to extract these patterns to aid learning to address two problems faced by transit agencies. First, in the case of a transit agency which operates many ICEVs, HVs, and EVs, we use multi-task learning (MTL) to improve accuracy of forecasting energy consumption. Second, in the case where there is a significant variation in vehicles in each category, we use inductive transfer learning (ITL) to improve predictive accuracy for vehicle class models with insufficient data. As this work is to be deployed by our partner agency, we also provide an online pipeline for joining the various sensor streams for fixed-line transit energy prediction. Here, we find that our approach outperforms vehicle-specific baselines in both the MTL and ITL settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of wind power scenario creation methods for stochastic power systems operations

Probabilistic scenarios of renewable energy production, such as wind, have been gaining popularity for use in stochastic variants of power systems operations scheduling problems, allowing for optimal decision-making under uncertainty. The quality of the scenarios has a direct impact on the value of the resulting decisions, but until now, methods for creating scenarios have not been compared under realistic operational conditions. Here, we compare the quality of scenario sets created using three different methods, based on a simulated re-enactment of stochastic day-ahead unit commitment and subsequent dispatch for a realistic test system. We create scenarios using a dataset of forecasted and actual wind power values, scaled to evaluate the effects of increasing wind penetration levels. We show that the choice of scenario set can significantly impact system operating cost, renewable energy use, and the ability of the system to meet demand. This result has implications for the ability of system operators to efficiently integrate renewable production into their day-ahead planning, highlighting the need for the use of performance-based assessments for scenario evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗