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At least 343 records · Page 19

Calibration of the DSCOVR EPIC Visible and NIR Channels using Multiple LEO Radiometers

The first five years of operation of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) at the Lagrange one point have produced results that uniquely complement the data from currently operating low orbit Earth-observing instruments. In this paper we describe an updated unified approach to EPIC calibration. In this approach, calibration coefficients and their trends were obtained by comparing EPIC observations to the measurements from polar orbiting radiometers. In this study L1B reflectances from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua and Terra satellites, Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) onboard Terra and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) spacecraft were used to infer calibration coefficients for four EPIC visible and near-infrared channels: 443 nm, 551 nm, 680 nm, and 780 nm. EPIC Version three measurements made between June 2015 and August 2020 were used for comparison. The calibration procedure identifies the most homogeneous low Earth orbit radiometer scenes matching scattering angles that are temporarily and spatially collocated with EPIC observations. These scenes are used to determine reflectance to count (R/C) ratios in spectrally analogous channels. Seasonal average R/C ratios were analyzed to obtain EPIC calibration gains and trends. The trends for the full dataset period are not statistically significant except in the 443 nm channel. No significant changes in calibration were found after the instrument’s exit from safe hold in March 2020. The R/C ratios were also used to determine the differences in EPIC gains resulting from separate calibrations: against MODIS Aqua or Terra, as well as against forward or aftward MISR cameras. Statistical tests indicate that the differences between the two datasets are not significant except in the 780 nm channels where Aqua-derived coefficients may be around 2% lower compared to Terra. The dependence of EPIC calibration gains on the instrument scattering angle and on DSCOVR-Earth distance were investigated. Lastly, model Low Earth Orbit (LEO) reflectances calculated to match the EPIC viewing geometry were employed to study how EPIC calibration coefficients depend on EPIC-LEO viewing geometry differences. The effect of LEO and EPIC angular mismatch on calibration was shown to be small.

deep space climate observatory/earth polychromatic↗

Shoshone River Water Resources II​: Quantifying Sediment Input in the Shoshone River in Wyoming using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Enhanced Water Quality Monitoring

The Willwood Dam, an irrigation diversion dam located on the Shoshone River (Wyoming, USA), has faced ongoing issues with sediment accumulation and needs frequent sediment flushing to remain operable. However, high suspended sediment levels during flushing events have negatively impacted downstream aquatic ecology and recreational opportunities. To address these problems, DEVELOP partnered with the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality, Shoshone River Partners, and United States Geologic Survey. During term one, the team developed a workflow to map turbidity using PlanetScope imagery, analyze time series precipitation data, and create landcover maps. For this term, we focused on three methods to gain a better understanding of sediment sources: 1) improving remote sensing of turbidity, 2) modeling sediment transport within the watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and 3) conducting a snow cover time series analysis using Suomi NPP VIIRS imagery. Through remote sensing, we found Dry Creek/Homesteader Creek and Penney Gulch/Rough Gulch had the highest concentration sediment plumes. The SWAT+ model created a high-resolution grid model of the watershed, identifying high sedimentation in the western and southern subbasins but displayed low-correlated calibration and validation results due to limited observed data. We analyzed the snow cover extent alongside other hydrologic variables and found that snow melt events correlated with increases in suspended sediment concentration and turbidity values. Coupling remote sensing with hydrological modeling will give watershed managers a new perspective on high-priority regions for implementation of remediation to reduce the sediment build-up at the Willwood Dam.

Suspended Sediment↗

New York Ecological Conservation: Evaluating Agricultural Conservation Easement Impact Using Earth Observations to Examine Avoided Soil Carbon Loss to Development

Farmland provides ecosystems and communities with services ranging from habitat conservation to food security. As total U.S. farmland continues to decline, agricultural lands near urban areas are especially vulnerable. Our project partners—Finger Lakes Land Trust, Genesee Land Trust, and Saratoga Preserving Land and Nature (PLAN)—can use study results to better profile farmland vulnerability, issuing conservation easements to protect maximum acreage in Saratoga County and the Finger Lakes Region of New York. Multiple existing studies effectively use remote sensing imagery to analyze historical land cover and forecast future change. This study examined soil carbon stocks and land cover change to estimate avoided soil carbon loss. We also predicted farmland vulnerability. We completed these analyses using European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA Earth observations that include Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) for nighttime lights data that aided in the land change model analysis. We determined that the conversion of agriculture to development from 1990 to 2022 occurred at rates of 0.91% (Finger Lakes) and 7% (Saratoga). Urban development is predicted to increase surrounding urban centers through 2030 and 2050. We also estimate that between 26.5 and 348,101 kilotons (Finger Lakes) and 3.7 and 58,006 kilotons (Saratoga) of soil carbon losses have been avoided through agricultural easements. Findings from this study will support our partners in determining agricultural conservation easement benefits and prioritizing the acquisition of future easement sites.

Agriculture↗

Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities

Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest Structural Complexity and Biomass Predict First-Year Carbon Cycling Responses to Disturbance

The pre-disturbance vegetation characteristics that predict carbon (C) cycling responses to disturbance are not well known. To address this gap, we initiated the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment, a manipulative study in which more than 3600 trees were stem girdled to achieve replicated factorial combinations of four levels (control, 45, 65, and 85% gross defoliation) of disturbance severity and two disturbance types (targeting upper or lower canopy strata). Applying a standardized stability framework in which initial C cycling resistance to disturbance was calculated as the first-year natural log response ratio of disturbance and control treatments, we investigated to what extent pre-disturbance levels of species diversity, aboveground woody biomass, leaf area index, and canopy rugosity—a measure of structural complexity—predict the initial responses of subcanopy light-saturated leaf CO 2 assimilation (A sat ), aboveground wood NPP (ANPP w ), and soil respiration (R s ) to phloem-disrupting disturbance. In the year following stem girdling, we found that above-ground C cycling processes, A sat and ANPP w , were highly resistant to increases in disturbance severity, while Rs resistance declined as severity increased. Disturbance type had no effect on first-year resistance. Pre-disturbance aboveground woody biomass, and canopy rugosity were positive predictors of ANPP w resistance and, conversely, negatively related to R s resistance. Subcanopy A sat resistance was not related to pre-disturbance vegetation characteristics. Stability of C uptake processes along with R s declines suggest the net C sink was sustained in the initial months following disturbance. Therefore, we conclude that biomass and complexity are significant, but not universal, predictors of initial C cycling resistance to disturbance. Moreover, our findings highlight the utility of standardized stability measures when comparing functional responses to disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feasibility of enhancing carbon sequestration and stock capacity in temperate and boreal European forests via changes to management regimes

Forest management practices might act as nature-based methods to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere and slow anthropogenic climate change and thus support an EU forest-based climate change mitigation strategy. However, the extent to which diversified management actions could lead to quantitatively important changes in carbon sequestration and stocking capacity at the tree level remains to be thoroughly assessed. To that end, we used a state-of-the-science bio-geochemically based forest growth model to simulate effects of multiple forest management scenarios on net primary productivity (NPP) and potential carbon woody stocks (pCWS) under twenty scenarios of climate change in a suite of observed and virtual forest stands in temperate and boreal European forests. Previous modelling experiments indicated that the capacity of forests to assimilate and store atmospheric CO 2 in woody biomass is already being attained under business-as-usual forest management practices across a range of climate change scenarios. Nevertheless, we find that on the long-term, with increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration and warming, managed forests show both higher productivity capacity and a larger potential pool size of stored carbon than unmanaged forests as long as thinning and tree harvesting are of moderate intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dispatch analysis of flexible power operation with multi-unit small modular reactors

The relevance of nuclear power plant flexible power operation (FPO) is rising due to increased penetration of variable renewables. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) such as NuScale are envisaged to have multiple units on one site. This provides opportunities for coordinating FPO between units, but also introduces challenges as common services (e.g., refueling equipment) must be shared between units and fuel loadings may be standardized. It is therefore important to quantify whether FPO with SMRs is economically beneficial. Here, this paper quantifies the economics of FPO on different timescales to analyze refueling outages of such multi-unit SMRs. A 24-h price-taker profit maximization of SMR operation is first solved considering revenues from wholesale power and ancillary service (AS) markets. The results are then used to find the most profitable operation strategy over several years for multiple units at the site accounting for the physics and materials limits on NPP operation, including refueling outages. Results show a small but appreciable participation of nuclear into AS, contributing 4% of revenues. Due to the longer fuel cycle, over a decade of operation the units’ refueling outages drifted by 3 months, ultimately leading to refueling during summer.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

How does urbanization affect CO 2 emissions of central heating systems in China? An assessment of natural gas transition policy based on nighttime light data

Understanding the different impacts of urbanization on sectorial carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions at different spatial scales is of great importance for the evaluation of energy transition policies and reduction of environmental inequality. However, how urbanization affects the CO 2 emissions of central heating systems at high spatial resolution in China has not been fully studied before. Based on satellite-observed NPP-VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data, we develop a 5 km x 5 km annual CO 2 emission inventory for coal boilers, thermal power plants (TPPs), and natural gas boilers in China's central heating systems for the period 2012-2017 by using the geographical and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. It is observed that nonurban areas generated 2-4 times the CO 2 emissions of coal boilers in urban areas. The largest increments of CO 2 emissions of gas boilers are observed in urban areas of the eastern (6.80 times) and central regions (2.86 times) in 2013-2014, due to the clean heating policy in the "2 + 26" cities in China. The effects of urbanization on CO 2 emissions from natural gas boilers are approximately 2-3 times those of coal boilers, and the differences are largest in western cities with only minor differences in northeastern cities. Overall, our results will aid in designing low-carbon development goals and provide micro-level information on central heating facilities in urbanized and less developed regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Full core LOCA safety analysis for a PWR containing high burnup fuel

For economic reasons, the US nuclear industry is renewing efforts to build a technical basis to extend peak rod average burnup limits above the current regulatory burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU. The primary driver of these efforts is to economically increase pressurized water reactor (PWR) cycle lengths to 24 months, reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies, increase time online, thereby reducing number of outages and their associated cost, higher fuel utilization, and possibly reduce core design constraints. In order for US nuclear utilities to leverage these economic efficiencies, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will likely require nuclear power plants (NPPs) to analyze a number of potential operational occurrences and their potential consequences with each new core design prior to resuming normal operation. Potential operational occurrences can be divided into three primary regimes: (1) normal operation, (2) anticipated operation occurrences (AOOs), and (3) design basis accidents (DBAs). Normal plant operation is an operating regime in which the plant operates within specified operational limits until the end of the cycle, whereas AOOs are events that result in the NPP deviating outside the normal operating regime. A key attribute of an AOO is that the occurrence should be expected. However, by definition, the occurrence of an AOO does not result in significant impact to critical safety functions. The last potential operational occurrence is a DBA. From the fuel performance point-of-view, DBAs can be subdivided into two bounding categories: (1) loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs), and (2) reactivity insertion accidents (RIAs). Unlike AOOs, DBAs may result in fuel rod failure. The NRC imposes fundamental acceptance criteria to minimize radiological consequences to the public and onsite staff. Furthermore, safety criteria are typically linked to the fulfillment of other acceptance criteria related to reactor safety equipment designed to mitigate DBAs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗

Alchemy: A Model-Based Approach for 2D to 3D Autonomous Nuclear System Design

Engineering design of nuclear power plant (NPP) piping and equipment systems frequently bypasses crucial 2D system planning, instead moving straight to 3D modeling. This often leads to designs that exceed building envelope constraints, forcing expensive and time-consuming redesigns. When 2D modeling is employed, it typically involves labor-intensive manual workflows that convert 2D drawings into 3D models, resulting in inefficiencies and errors across design iterations. These workflows further suffer from poor software interoperability and dependence on proprietary software ecosystems, thereby contributing to schedule delays and cost overruns. This paper presents Alchemy, an autonomous framework that transforms 2D system definitions into Industry Foundation Classes (IFC)-compliant 3D building information models (BIMs) for expediting nuclear facility design at the conceptual preliminary phase. Using a model-based approach, the framework treats the 2D system diagram as the central reference model employed to automatically generate all subsequent outputs, ensuring consistency between the system definition and the resulting physical design. A web-based interface enables engineers to define hierarchical system topologies including associated equipment, geometric properties, and connectivity requirements. A two-phase equipment layout optimization algorithm automatically computes collision-free spatial configurations within predefined building envelopes. An artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted pipe routing module then generates orthogonal, collision-free routing paths, allowing the user to select either an A* search-based method or an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO)-based method. All outputs are authored natively in IFC format, relying on open-source technologies and standardized formats in order to ensure extensibility and eliminate proprietary software dependencies. The proposed framework is validated on two representative pressurized-water reactor (PWR)-based case studies, for which it autonomously generates IFC-compliant 3D models in minutes, drastically reducing workflows that typically require hours of manual effort. The generated model demonstrates topologically correct equipment placement, physically plausible spatial relationships, and collision-free pipe routing consistent with known PWR loop configurations. This work represents a foundational step toward digital engineering for nuclear facility preliminary design, with future ongoing development targeting design code compliance and expanded system complexity.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the mechanism of radiation and thermal-induced degradation of the insulation cables in nuclear power plants-the presence of long-lived polyenyl C-centered radicals

Radiolytically and thermally produced long-lived polyenyl C-centered radicals in the nuclear power plants’ insulation cables are detected and measured after more than 45 months of aging since the irradiation and the thermal treatment. Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) results of the irradiated Cross-linked Polyethylene (XLPE) and Ethylene Propylene Rubber (EthProRu), used as primary insulation materials at Nuclear Power Plants (NPP), clearly demonstrate the presence of polyenyl radicals along with allyl and peroxyl radicals. The yields of these free radicals are dose-rate dependent. EPR results also show the presence of the long-lived polyenyl along with allyl and peroxyl free radicals in the thermally treated XLPE, and EthProRu. These free radicals can cause a major failure in the performance of these cables in NPPs. Besides, the results showed the enhancement in the oxidation reactions due to the migration of copper ions from the conductor to the bulk of the insulation. Further, this study also shows that the oxidation index (OI) and Elongation at Break (EAB) increases and decreases respectively at higher doses and temperatures.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Identifying human failure events (HFEs) for external hazard probabilistic risk assessment

In recent years, several advancements in nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) have been driven by increased understanding of external hazards, plant response, and uncertainties. However, major sources of uncertainty associated with external hazard PRA remain. One important source is how risk-significant human actions that are carried out to enable plant response and recovery from natural hazards cause the close coupling of physical impacts on plants and overall plant risk during these hazard events. This makes human reliability and human-plant interactions important elements to consider in resolving PRA gaps in external hazards. One of the challenges in considering human response in external hazard probabilistic risk assessment (XHPRA) is that most existing human reliability analysis (HRA) models were not developed for assessing actions outside the control room (termed ex-control room actions) and hazard response. To support this new scope, HRA models will need to be developed or modified to support identification of human activities, causal factors, and uncertainties inherent in external hazard response, thereby providing insights regarding event timing and physical event conditions as they relate to human performance. In this study, there are two main objectives: (1) evaluate the applicability of an existing cognitive-based HRA method, Phoenix, to ex-control room actions, and (2) identify sources of uncertainty to be characterized or reduced in order to make this method suitable for XHPRA. The first step of such work is performed by assessing the suitability of existing HRA methods to support identifying human failure events (HFEs) for human response to flooding hazards. These HFEs are human actions or inactions that are involved in human responses to flooding hazards and could contribute to the loss of a critical function for the plant in the scenario being examined. Here, in this work, decomposition analyses using the cognitive-based Phoenix HRA model are used to identify HFEs. The Phoenix method was found to be suitable for analyzing ex-control room actions as well as identifying specific HFEs and underlying crew failure modes (CFMs). However, the method's suitability for use in ex-control room actions would benefit from expanding the available CFMs to accommodate a larger variety of physical and communication tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Radiation-Induced Changes in Single Crystal Calcite and Dolomite: Mineral Analogues of Light Water Reactor, Nuclear Power Plant Concrete Aggregates

Two analogues of aggregates (calcite and dolomite) found in nuclear power plant (NPP) concrete have been neutron irradiated to fluences up to 2 × 10 20 n/cm 2 at 52 °C and 4 × 10 19 n/cm 2 at 95 °C (E > 0.1 MeV). X-ray diffraction studies showed that these aging conditions affected crystallography of both calcite and dolomite, with both showing a growth in their unit cells compared to that of the unirradiated samples. Only dolomite samples showed a continuous increase of its lattice parameters with the increase in irradiation. In calcites, the lattice growth with irradiation dissipated after a fluence of 5 × 10 18 n/cm 2 . Radiation-induced disordering of the crystal structure was observed in both materials, while a healing effect of irradiation temperature was mainly observed in calcites. Dislocation densities calculated by using XRD data also supported these observations. Insights made into the unit cells of both minerals by using Fourier synthesis showed that the Mg sites are more prone to the neutron irradiation than the Ca sites, resulting in larger radiation effects and higher disruption in the crystal structure of dolomite than that of calcite. Furthermore, other than the polycrystalline characteristics observed by using TEM, these minerals did not show complete amorphization or significant structural decomposition at the studied irradiation fluences.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental Soil Warming Impacts Soil Moisture and Plant Water Stress and Thereby Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics

Experimental soil heating experiments have found a consistent increase in soil-surface CO 2 emissions ( F s ), but inconsistent soil organic carbon (SOC) responses. Interpretation of heating effects is complicated by spatial heterogeneity and soil moisture, nitrogen availability, and microbial and plant responses. Here we applied a mechanistic ecosystem model to interpret heating impacts on a California forest subjected to 1 m deep, 4°C heating. The model accurately simulated control-plot CO 2 fluxes, SOC stocks, fine root biomass, soil moisture, and soil temperature, and the observed increases in F s and decreases in fine root biomass. We show that a complex suite of interactions can lead to a consistent increase in F s (~17%) over the 5-year study period, with very small changes in SOC stocks (<1%). Modeled increases in leaf water stress from soil drying reduced GPP and NPP. The resulting reduction in leaf and fine root allocation increased fine root litter inputs to the soil and reduced root exudation. Soil heating led to about a 50% larger increase in root autotrophic respiration than in heterotrophic respiration, with the heating effect on both these fluxes decreasing over the simulation period. Increased heterotrophic respiration led to increased soil N availability and plant N uptake. These heating responses are mechanistically linked, of magnitudes that can affect ecosystem dynamics, and long-term observations of them are rarely made. Therefore, we conclude that a coupled observational and mechanistic modeling framework is needed to interpret manipulation experiments, and to improve projections of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ENPP1’s regulation of extracellular cGAMP is a ubiquitous mechanism of attenuating STING signaling

The metazoan innate immune second messenger 2'3'-cGAMP is present both inside and outside cells. However, only extracellular cGAMP can be negatively regulated by the extracellular hydrolase ENPP1. Here, we determine whether ENPP1’s regulation of extracellular cGAMP is a ubiquitous mechanism of attenuating stimulator of interferon genes (STING) signaling. We identified ENPP1 H362A , a point mutation that cannot degrade the 2'-5' linkage in cGAMP while maintaining otherwise normal function. The selectivity of this histidine is conserved down to bacterial nucleotide pyrophosphatase/phosphodiesterase (NPP), allowing structural analysis and suggesting an unexplored ancient history of 2'-5' cyclic dinucleotides. Enpp1 H362A mice demonstrated that extracellular cGAMP is not responsible for the devastating phenotype in ENPP1-null humans and mice but is responsible for antiviral immunity and systemic inflammation. Our data define extracellular cGAMP as a pivotal STING activator, identify an evolutionarily critical role for ENPP1 in regulating inflammation, and suggest a therapeutic strategy for viral and inflammatory conditions by manipulating ENPP1 activity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Effectiveness of FLEX Strategies Using a CDF-Based Importance Measure Under Accident Conditions

One of the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident is strengthening the station blackout (SBO) mitigation capabilities by enhancing defense in depth for all existing and new NPPs. One of the possible remedies is diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). The objective of this study is to address the benefits of FLEX in various accident scenarios in terms of both risk and cost. FLEX was originally devised against SBO accidents. In this research, we investigate the fundamental plant responses against accidents considering two fundamentally different cases: accidents that lead to high pressure on the primary side and accidents that lead to low pressure on the primary side. Several uncertainties are associated with the characteristics of the FLEX portable equipment. Specifically, the time for FLEX deployment may depend on several factors such as type of accident, point of injection, availability of safety systems, battery backup timings, and human actions. This study utilizes a dynamic risk assessment framework to analyze accident scenarios and suggests a novel importance measure, which is a cumulative distribution function– based importance metric that characterizes the influence of input distribution on complete output distribution. The importance of the existing and newly developed FLEX strategy based on risk significance is illustrated with examples. The suggested measure provides clear insight into how FLEX affects risk of the whole system and additional risk margins thanks to new safety systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗