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NASA NTRS1984

Transient behavior of a flare-associated solar wind. I - Gas dynamics in a radial open field region

A numerical investigation is conducted into the way in which a solar wind model initially satisfying both steady state and energy balance conditions is disturbed and deformed, under the assumption of heating that correspoonds to the energy release of solar flares of an importance value of approximately 1 which occur in radial open field regions. Flare-associated solar wind transient behavior is modeled for 1-8 solar radii. The coronal temperature around the heat source region rises, and a large thermal conductive flux flows inward to the chromosphere and outward to interplanetary space along field lines. The speed of the front of expanding chromospheric material generated by the impingement of the conduction front on the upper chromosphere exceeds the local sound velocity in a few minutes and eventually exceeds 100 million cm/sec.

Nagai, F.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Curled-Skewed Wakes behind Yawed Wind Turbines Subject to Veered Inflow

This work presents a new engineering analytical model that predicts the effect of both the turbine yaw misalignment and the inflow wind veer on the wake flow distribution downwind of a wind turbine. To consider the veered inflow, two methods were examined. In the first method, the curled shape of the wake due to the yaw offset is initially modelled. The wake shape is then laterally skewed at each height due to the wind veer based on the assumption that the turbine wake is transported downstream by the incoming flow. The second method is a more realistic approach that accounts for the effect of wind veer on the wind velocity direction and the yaw angle seen by the wind turbine. This models the wake region in a local coordinate system defined based on the wind direction at each height. A coordinate transformation is then performed to represent the wake flow distribution in the global coordinate system attached to the ground. The results show that while the two methods provide similar outputs for small variations in the wind direction across the rotor, the difference becomes more evident with an increase in wind veer. High-fidelity simulations for a turbine subject to a neutral atmospheric boundary layer were employed to validate model predictions for different operating conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tanana River Test Site Model Verification Using the Marine and Hydrokinetic Toolkit (MHKiT)

The marine energy (ME) industry historically lacked a standardized data processing toolkit for common tasks such as data ingestion, quality control, and visualization. The marine and hydrokinetic toolkit (MHKiT) solved this issue by providing a public software deployment (open-source and free) toolkit for the ME industry to store and maintain commonly used functionality for wave, tidal, and river energy. This paper demonstrates an initial model verification study in MHKiT. Using Delft3D, a numerical model of the Tanana River Test Site (TRTS) at Nenana, Alaska was created. Field data from the site was collected using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) at the proposed Current Energy Converter (CEC) locations. MHKiT is used to process model simulations from Delft3D and compare them to the transect data from the ADCP measurements at TRTS. The ability to use a single tool to process simulation and field data demonstrates the ease at which the ME industry can obtain results and collaborate across specialties, reducing errors and increasing efficiency.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying the Effect of Mixing on the Mean Age of Air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 Models

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA.

CCMI↗

NASA NTRS1991

Supportability to 'Mars...and beyond'

The development of a 'front-end' Integrated Logistics Support (ILS) strategic concept and a Supportability Index Model (SIM) for incorporation into future SEI engineering efforts is discussed. The ILS objectives and support strategy are examined. The SIM mission phases, which evaluates those items determined to be the most crucial for each mission phase in terms of a measure of supportability effectiveness, are summarized and the SIM data development and initial model results are reviewed.

Thurman, Loren A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Objective Verification of the North American Mesoscale Model for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point, as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. Objective statistics will give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strength and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

NASA NTRS2000

Model of ASTM Flammability Test in Microgravity: Iron Rods

There is extensive qualitative results from burning metallic materials in a NASA/ASTM flammability test system in normal gravity. However, this data was shown to be inconclusive for applications involving oxygen-enriched atmospheres under microgravity conditions by conducting tests using the 2.2-second Lewis Research Center (LeRC) Drop Tower. Data from neither type of test has been reduced to fundamental kinetic and dynamic systems parameters. This paper reports the initial model analysis for burning iron rods under microgravity conditions using data obtained at the LERC tower and modeling the burning system after ignition. Under the conditions of the test the burning mass regresses up the rod to be detached upon deceleration at the end of the drop. The model describes the burning system as a semi-batch, well-mixed reactor with product accumulation only. This model is consistent with the 2.0-second duration of the test. Transient temperature and pressure measurements are made on the chamber volume. The rod solid-liquid interface melting rate is obtained from film records. The model consists of a set of 17 non-linear, first-order differential equations which are solved using MATLAB. This analysis confirms that a first-order rate, in oxygen concentration, is consistent for the iron-oxygen kinetic reaction. An apparent activation energy of 246.8 kJ/mol is consistent for this model.

Steinberg, Theodore A↗

DOE OSTI2024

IDAES-PSE 2.6.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications. IDAES-PSE 2.6.0 Release Highlights Upcoming Changes IDAES will be switching to the new Pyomo solver interface in the next release. Whilst this will hopefully be a smooth transition for most users, there are a few important changes to be aware of. The new solver interface uses a different version of the IPOPT writer (“ipopt_v2”) and thus any custom configuration options you might have set for IPOPT will not carry over and will need to be reset. By default, the new Pyomo linear presolver will be activated with ipopt_v2. Whilst are working to identify any bugs in the presolver, it is possible that some edge cases will remain. IDAES will begin deploying a new set of scaling tools and APIs over the next few releases that make use of the new solver writers. The old scaling tools and APIs will remain for backward compatibility but will begin to be deprecated. New Models, Tools and Features New Intersphinx extension automatically linking Jupyter notebook examples to project documentation New end-to-end diagnostics example demonstrated on a real problem New complementarity formulation for VLE with cubic equations of state, backward compatibility for old formulation New solver interface with presolve (ipopt_v2) in support of upcoming changes to the initialization and APIs methods, with default set to ipopt to maintain backwards compatibility; this will deprecate once all examples have been updated New forecaster and parameterized bidder methods within grid integration library Updated surrogates API and examples to support Keras 3, with backwards compatibility for older formats such as TensorFlow SavedModel (TFSM) Updated costing base dictionary to include the 2023 cost year index value Updated ProcessBlock to include information on the constructing block class Updated Flowsheet Visualizer to allow visualize() method to return value and functions Bug Fixes Fixed bug in the Modular Property Framework that would cause errors when trying to use phase-based material balances with phase equilibria. Fixed bug in Modular Properties Framework that caused errors when initializing models with non-vapor-liquid phase equilibria. Fixed typos flagged by June update to crate-ci/typos and removed DMF-related exceptions Minor corrections of units of measurement handling in power plant waste/transport costing expressions, control volume material holdup expressions, and BTX property package parameters Fixed throwing >7500 numpy deprecation warnings by replacing scalar value assignment with element extraction and item iteration calls Testing and Robustness Migrated slow tests (>10s) to integration, impacting test coverage but also yielding a nearly 30% decrease in local test runtime Pinned pint to avoid issues with older supported Python versions Pinned codecov versions to avoid tokenless upload behavior with latest version Bumped extensions to version 3.4.2 to allow pointing to non-standard install location Deprecations and Removals Python 3.8 is no longer supported. The supported Python versions are 3.9 through 3.12 The Data Management Framework (DMF) is no longer supported. Importing idaes.core.dmf will cause a deprecation warning to be displayed until the next release The SOFC Keras surrogates have been removed. The current version of the SOFC surrogate model in the examples repository is a PySMO Kriging model.

AS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Carbon Monoxide Accumulation in the Extravehicular Mobility Unit

Introduction: Life support technology in large closed systems like submarines and space stations catalyzes carbon monoxide (CO) to carbon dioxide, which is easily removed. However, in a small system like the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), spacesuit, CO from exogenous (contaminated oxygen (O (sub 2) supply) and endogenous (human metabolism) sources will accumulate in the free suit volume. The free volume becomes a sink for CO that is rebreathed by the astronaut. The accumulation through time depends on many variables: the amount absorbed by the astronaut, the amount produced by the astronaut (between 0.28 and 0.34 moles per hour per kilogram)[1], the amount that enters the suit from contaminated O (sub 2), the amount removed through suit leak, the free volume of the suit, and the O (sub 2) partial pressure[2], just to list a few. Contamination of the EMU O (sub 2) supply with no greater than 1 part per million CO was the motivation for empirical measurements from CO pulse oximetry (SpCO) as well as mathematical modeling of the EMU as a rebreather for CO. Methods: We developed a first-order differential mixing equation as well as an iterative method to compute CO accumulation in the EMU. Pre-post measurements of SpCO (Rad-57, Masimo Corporation) from EMU ground training and on-orbit extravehicular activities (EVAs) were collected. Results: Initial modeling without consideration of the astronaut as a sink but only the source of CO showed that after 8 hours breathing 100 percent O (sub 2) with a 10 milliliter per minute (760 millimeters Hg at 21 degrees Centigrade standard) suit leak, an endogenous production rate of 0.23 moles per hour per kilogram for a 70 kilogram person with 42 liters (1.5 cubic feet) free suit volume resulted in a peak CO partial pressure (pCO) of 0.047 millimeters Hg at 4.3 pounds per square inch absolute (222 millimeters Hg). Preliminary results based on a 2008 model[3] with consideration of the astronaut as a sink and source of CO suggests that most of the rebreathed CO stays bound to hemoglobin and myoglobin and; therefore, pCO only increased to 0.002 millimeters Hg in the EMU. Hemoglobin saturation after 8 hours was an insignificant 0.4 percent compared to about 4 percent for cigarette smokers in the general population. This preliminary modeling result supplements 11 pre-post index finger SpCO measurements from EMU ground training (mean 0.5 percent versus 1 percent, probability equal to 0.41 from paired t-test) and 10 on-orbit pre-post EVAs (mean 1.5 percent versus 1.1 percent, probability equal to 0.17 from paired t-test) that showed no consistent increase, at least no increase outside the accuracy of the oximeter (1 percent display resolution with plus or minus 3 percent Standard Deviation). Discussion: Simulations continue, but a preliminary conclusion is that rebreathing endogenous CO accumulating in the EMU is not a serious medical issue during EVA. The absence of CO poisoning signs or symptoms following hundreds of EVAs is also good empirical evidence that corroborates the limited SpCO measurements and preliminary modeling results.

Conkin, J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Trace Gas/Aerosol Interactions and GMI Modeling Support

Current global aerosol models use different physical and chemical schemes and parameters, different meteorological fields, and often different emission sources. Since the physical and chemical parameterization schemes are often tuned to obtain results that are consistent with observations, it is difficult to assess the true uncertainty due to meteorology alone. Under the framework of the NASA global modeling initiative (GMI), the differences and uncertainties in aerosol simulations (for sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, dust and sea salt) solely due to different meteorological fields are analyzed and quantified. Three meteorological datasets available from the NASA DAO GCM, the GISS-II' GCM, and the NASA finite volume GCM (FVGCM) are used to drive the same aerosol model. The global sulfate and mineral dust burdens with FVGCM fields are 40% and 20% less than those with DAO and GISS fields, respectively due to its heavier rainfall. Meanwhile, the sea salt burden predicted with FVGCM fields is 56% and 43% higher than those with DAO and GISS, respectively, due to its stronger convection especially over the Southern Hemispheric Ocean. Sulfate concentrations at the surface in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and in the middle to upper troposphere differ by more than a factor of 3 between the three meteorological datasets. The agreement between model calculated and observed aerosol concentrations in the industrial regions (e.g., North America and Europe) is quite similar for all three meteorological datasets. Away from the source regions, however, the comparisons with observations differ greatly for DAO, FVGCM and GISS, and the performance of the model using different datasets varies largely depending on sites and species. Global annual average aerosol optical depth at 550 nm is 0.120-0.131 for the three meteorological datasets.

Penner, Joyce E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

On the Role of Trend and Variability of Hydroxyl Radical (OH) in the Global Methane Budget

Decadal trends and interannual variations in the hydroxyl radical (OH), while poorly constrained at present, are critical for understanding the observed evolution of atmospheric methane (CH4). Through analyzing the OH fields simulated by the model ensemble of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), we find (1) the negative OH anomalies during the El Niño years mainly corresponding to the enhanced carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from biomass burning and (2) a positive OH trend during 1980-2010 dominated by the elevated primary production and the reduced loss of OH due to decreasing CO after 2000. Both two-box model inversions and variational 4D inversions suggest that ignoring the negative anomaly of OH during the El Niño years leads to a large overestimation of the increase in global CH4 emissions by up to10±3Tg yr-1to match the observed CH4 increase over these years. Not accounting for the increasing OH trends given by the CCMI models leads to an underestimation of the CH4 emission increase by 23±9Tg yr-1from 1986 to 2010. The variational inversion estimated CH4 emissions show that the tropical regions contribute most to the uncertainties related to OH. This study highlights the significant impact of climate and chemical feedbacks related to OH on the top-down estimates of the global CH4 budget.

Hydroxyl radical (OH)↗

NASA NTRS2018

Global High Resolution Crustal Magnetic Field at the Surface of the Moon from Low-Altitude Lunar Prospector Magnetic Gradient Data

We derived new vector gradients based models of crustal magnetic field at the lunar surface with data from the Lunar Prospector (LP) satellite using two model parameterization approaches: a global set of 35820 1° spaced (~30 km) equal area monopoles at 20 km below the surface (O’Brien and Parker, 1994; Olsen et al., 2017) and combined results of subsets of 100000 0.66° spaced monopoles at the same depth. We use the scheme of iteratively reweighted least-squares inversion to compute the initial model. Then the amplitudes of these monopoles are determined by minimizing the misfit to the components together with the global average of |Br| at the ellipsoid surface (i.e. applying a L1 model regularization of Br). In previous approaches using vector fields for modeling, we found that external field contamination leads to spurious anomalies in the downward continued field models even with stringent data selection criteria and ad-hoc noise removal techniques (e.g., satellite’s position in the Moon’s wake w.r.t. the solar wind and in the Earth’s magnetotail, internal/external dipoles fields removal, low-order polynomial removal, joint equivalent source cross-validation technique and visually removing remaining anomalous segments). On the other hand, with the use of gradients-only data (along-track first finite differences), we were able to completely bypass the ad-hoc techniques. Similar processing of Kaguya magnetic data, which have only higher altitude coverage over the most of the Moon except in the region of the South Pole–Aitken (SPA) basin, completely misses some of the anomalies seen in the Lunar Prospector data. The combined Lunar Prospector and Kaguya gradient-based models also severely degrade the derivation of the anomaly fields in many regions. Euler analysis of isolated anomaly features from the Reiner Gamma swirl suggests top depths of about 0.3 to 1.5 km and center depths of 10-14 km; in the region between Stein and Vallier craters north of the SPA basin our analysis suggests top depths of around 1.5 km and center depths of 13-15 km. With the spectral depth determination techniques, the SPA basin region yields depths to the base of magnetization ranging between 15 and 40 km. Three-dimensional modeling and the bulk magnetization determinations of the sources constrained by the Euler and spectral methods is underway.

Gradient↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving Seasonal Forecast Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecasts, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. Here, we develop a probabilistic deep learning-based statistical forecast methodology, drawing on a wealth of climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By explicitly modeling the internal climate variability and GCM formulation differences, the proposed Conditional Generative Forecasting (CGF) methodology enables bypassing crucial barriers in dynamical forecast, and offers a top-down viewpoint to examine how complicated GCMs encode the seasonal predictability information. We apply the CGF methodology for global seasonal forecast of precipitation and 2 m air temperature, based on a unique data set consisting 52,201 years of climate simulation. Results show that the CGF methodology can faithfully represent the seasonal predictability information encoded in GCMs. We successfully apply this learned relationship in real-world seasonal forecast, achieving competitive performance compared to dynamical forecasts. Using this CGF as benchmark, we reveal the impact of insufficient forecast spread sampling that limits the skill of the considered dynamical forecast system. Finally, we introduce different strategies for composing ensembles using the CGF methodology, highlighting the potential for leveraging the strengths of multiple GCMs to achieve advantgeous seasonal forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Objective Verification of the North American Mesoscale Model for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWO's) use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature (T) and dew pOint (T d), as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network shown in Table 1. These objective statistics give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

DOE OSTI2020

Local-scale Arctic tundra heterogeneity affects regional-scale carbon dynamics

In northern Alaska nearly 65% of the terrestrial surface is composed of polygonal ground, where geomorphic tundra landforms disproportionately influence carbon and nutrient cycling over fine spatial scales. Process-based biogeochemical models used for local to Pan-Arctic projections of ecological responses to climate change typically operate at coarse-scales (1km 2 –0.5°) at which fine-scale (<1km 2 ) tundra heterogeneity is often aggregated to the dominant land cover unit. Here, we evaluate the importance of tundra heterogeneity for representing soil carbon dynamics at fine to coarse spatial scales. We leveraged the legacy of data collected near Utqiagvik, Alaska between 1973 and 2016 for model initiation, parameterization, and validation. Simulation uncertainty increased with a reduced representation of tundra heterogeneity and coarsening of spatial scale. Hierarchical cluster analysis of an ensemble of 21 st -century simulations reveals that a minimum of two tundra landforms (dry and wet) and a maximum of 4km 2 spatial scale is necessary for minimizing uncertainties (<10%) in regional to Pan-Arctic modeling applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

IDAES-PSE 2.5.0 Release

AS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Machine Learning for Rapid Biomarker Discovery via Image-Omic Fusion

In this project we proposed to accelerate biomarker discovery and improve disease prediction by combining image and omic data using a single, unified modelling approach. We hypothesized that much richer information could be derived from both the image and omic data when they are analyzed together. Using imaging mass spectrometry (IMS) data collected from mice we fused image and omic data to increase the resolution of the IMS data. Using human data provided to us by Oregon Health and Science University, we developed an initial modeling framework that can increase the accuracy of both imaging and MS datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Synergism of Saturn, Enceladus and Titan and Formation of HCNO Exobiological Molecules

Saturn as a system has two very exotic moons Titan and Enceladus. Titan with energy input from Saturn's magnetosphere, solar UV irradiation, and cosmic rays can make HCN based molecules as discussed in earlier paper by [1]. Space radiation effects at both moons, and as coupled by the Saturn magnetosphere could cause an unexpected series of events leading to the evolution of biological models at Titan composed of HCNO with oxygen as the new ingredient. The "Old Faithful" model by [2] suggests that Enceladus, highly irradiated by Saturn magnetospheric electrons, has episodic ejections of water vapor driven by radiolytic oxidation gas products into Saturn's magnetosphere. At Titan Cassini discovered 1) that keV oxygen ions, evidently from Enceladus, are bombarding Titan's upper atmosphere [3] and 2) the discovery of heavy positive and negative ions within Titan's upper atmosphere [4]. Initial models of heavy ion formation in Titan's upper atmosphere invoked polymerization of aromatics such as Benzenes and their radicals to make PAHs [5], while a more recent model by [6] has raised the possibility of carbon chains forming from the polymerization of acetylene and its radicals to eventually make fullerenes. Laboratory measurements indicate that fullerenes, which are hollow carbon shells, can trap the keV oxygen and with the clustering of fullerenes and possible mixture with PAHs, some with nitrogen molecules, can make the larger aerosols with oxygen within them. Then with further ionizing irradiation from cosmic rays deep in the atmosphere "tholin" molecules are produced with all the molecular components present from which organic molecules can form. Among the molecular components are amino acids, the fundamental building blocks of life as we know it. This process maybe a common chemical pathway, both at the system level and at the molecular level, to form prebiotic and perhaps even biotic molecules. Such processes can be occurring throughout our universe, such as molecular clouds in the ISM.

Sittler, Edward C., Jr.↗