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At least 343 records · Page 19

Mixing of the Connecticut River Plume During Ambient Flood Tides: Spatial Heterogeneity and Contributions of Bottom–Generated and Interfacial Mixing

The Connecticut River plume is influenced by energetic ambient tides in the Long Island Sound receiving waters. The objectives of this modeling study are (a) characterizing the spatial heterogeneity of turbulent buoyancy fluxes, (b) partitioning turbulent buoyancy fluxes into bottom-generated and interfacial shear contributions, and (c) quantifying contributions to plume-integrated mixing within the tidal plume. The plume formed during ambient flood tides under low river discharge, spring tides, and no winds is analyzed. Turbulent buoyancy fluxes (B) and depth-integrated B through the plume (Bd) are characterized by pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Strong mixing (Bd ~ 10 –5 -10 –4 m 3 /s 3 ) occurs near the mouth, in the nearfield plume turning region, over shoals, and nearshore shallow areas. Low to moderate mixing (Bd ~ 10 –8 -10 –6 m 3 /s 3 ) occupies half the plume. Buoyancy fluxes are first partitioned based on the depth of the shear stress minimum between plume-generated and bottom-generated shear maxima. Four other tested partitioning methods are based on open channel flow and stratified shear flow parameterizations. Interfacial and bottom-generated shear contribute to different areas of intense and moderate mixing. All methods indicate a significant plume mixing role for bottom-generated mixing, but interfacial mixing is a bigger contributor. Plume-integrated total and interfacial mixing peak at max ambient flood and the timing of peak bottom-generated mixing varies among partitioning methods. Two-thirds of the mixing occurs in concentrated intense mixing areas. A parameter space with the ambient tidal Froude number and plume thickness to depth ratio as axes indicates many tidally modulated plumes are moderately to dominantly influenced by bottom-generated tidal mixing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Irradiation-assisted cracking of SA508-304L weldments with 308L groove filler and 309L butter in hot water immersion constant rate extension tests

Low alloy SA508 bainitic steel is often welded to 300 series austenitic stainless steel in nuclear power plants. These dissimilar metal weldments use 309L butter applied to the low alloy steel and 308L groove filler material to join the 309L to austenite. High alloy steels (such as the 308L and 309L material used here) have been identified as having greater susceptibility to irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC). Evidence is presented here of cracking under tensile loads in 309L weldment butter in LWR hydrothermal conditions that correlates irradiation induced changes at δ ferrite–γ austenite phase boundaries and γ–γ grain boundaries; specifically intergranular Cr 23 C 6 precipitates. Cracking is not observed in irradiated 308L groove filler under the same conditions. Both the 309L butter and 308L filler material have a duplex or mixed δ–γ phase microstructure due to solidification during the welding procedure. We have performed constant extension rate autoclave immersion tests in BWR normal water chemistry hot water (288 °C, 10 MPa, 2000 wt. ppb dissolved oxygen, <100 nS/cm conductivity, neutral pH) of proton irradiated (2 MeV, approximately 3 displacements per atom at a depth of 10 μm) tensile specimens. Proton irradiation to the dpa levels used here induced Cr 23 C 6 carbide precipitation at γ–γ grain boundaries and δ–γ phase boundaries in the 309L butter but not the 308L filler. Cracking was observed in the proton-irradiated volume of 309L at these interfaces in the vicinity of the Cr 23 C 6 precipitates. We hypothesis the SA508 is the source of carbon in the 309L butter. Cr depletion at γ–γ grain boundaries was also observed and may also be a root cause of cracking. Furthermore, the 309L butter is under significant tensile residual stress in the weldment that adds to applied tensile loads and this too may be a contributing factor.

309L weld butter↗

Developing an Energy-Conscious Traffic Signal Control System for Optimized Fuel Consumption in Connected Vehicle Environments

The project titled “Developing an Energy-Conscious Traffic Signal Control System for Optimized Fuel Consumption in Connected Vehicle Environments” addresses energy-related challenges associated with adaptive traffic control systems by integrating connected vehicles (CV) and connected infrastructure (CI). The system developed in this project, a CV-based adaptive traffic control system, aims to improve fuel consumption in mixed traffic environments by capitalizing on emerging CV and CI communication technologies, as well as leveraging recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), optimization, and edge computing. The system was tested at the MLK Smart Corridor, an urban testbed managed by the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga (UTC) and the City of Chattanooga. The system was validated through extensive simulations, both Software-in-the-Loop (SILS) and Hardware-in-the-Loop (HILS), and was further implemented and tested in real-world conditions at several intersections along the corridor. The Fuel Consumption Performance Index (FC-PI) and the Ecological Performance Index (Eco-PI) were developed as the key components for evaluating the system’s impact on fuel consumption and emissions. These metrics provided a comprehensive means of understanding the impact of traffic signal control optimization in mixed traffic environments. The report presents an in-depth analysis of the Eco-PI, FC-PI, adaptive traffic control system integration, and the testing and field implementation of the system. The results demonstrate significant reductions in fuel consumption and emissions, showcasing the system’s capability to contribute to more sustainable urban traffic management. The report also documents the challenges encountered and recommendations for scaling and further improving the system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Precision tests of fundamental physics with η and η ' mesons

Decays of the neutral and long-lived $\eta$ and $\eta'$ mesons provide a unique, flavor-conserving laboratory to test low-energy Quantum Chromodynamics and search for new physics beyond the Standard Model. They have drawn world-wide attention in recent years and have inspired broad experimental programs in different high-intensity-frontier centers. Additionally, new experimental data will offer critical inputs to precisely determine the light quark mass ratios, $\eta$-$\eta'$ mixing parameters, and hadronic contributions to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. At the same time, it will provide a sensitive probe to test potential new physics. This includes searches for hidden photons, light Higgs scalars, and axion-like particles that are complementary to worldwide efforts to detect new light particles below the GeV mass scale, as well as tests of discrete symmetry violation. In this review, we give an update on theoretical developments, discuss the experimental opportunities, and identify future research needed in this field.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Optimization-based, property-preserving algorithm for passive tracer transport

Here we present a new optimization-based property-preserving algorithm for passive tracer transport. The algorithm utilizes a semi-Lagrangian approach based on incremental remapping of the mass and the total tracer. However, unlike traditional semi-Lagrangian schemes, which remap the density and the tracer mixing ratio through monotone reconstruction or flux correction, we utilize an optimization-based remapping that enforces conservation and local bounds as optimization constraints. In so doing we separate accuracy considerations from preservation of physical properties to obtain a conservative, second-order accurate transport scheme that also has a notion of optimality. Moreover, we prove that the optimization-based algorithm preserves linear relationships between tracer mixing ratios. We illustrate the properties of the new algorithm using a series of standard tracer transport test problems in a plane and on a sphere.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Concordant Mode Approach (CMA): Vibrational Analysis of New and Upgraded Intermolecular Benchmarks for Noncovalent Bonding

The Concordant Mode Approach (CMA) is a novel method that offers tremendous potential for increasing the system size and the level of theory attainable in quantum chemical computations of molecular vibrational frequencies. To investigate the extension of CMA to intermolecular vibrations, computations with coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples theory [CCSD(T)] using two augmented correlation-consistent polarized-valence triple-ζ basis sets (aug-cc-pVTZ or h-aug-ccpVTZ) were performed on 17 prototypical loosely bound complexes of hydrogen-bonded, dispersion, and mixed character. These Level A results provide new and upgraded benchmarks for noncovalent bonding and a severe test for CMA vibrational analyses. The Level A target frequencies were recovered remarkably well using second-order Møller−Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) with h-aug-cc-pVTZ for generating the underlying (Level B) normal modes of the CMA scheme. Employing this Level B within the lowest-rung CMA-0A method reproduces the 435 benchmark frequencies with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.23 cm −1 and a corresponding standard deviation (σ) of 0.84 cm −1 ; strikingly, the corresponding subset of 106 interfragment frequencies exhibits MAE = 0.34 cm −1 and σ = 0.90 cm −1 . Subsequent application of the higher-rung CMA-2A scheme eliminates all outliers and reduces the overall MAE to a minuscule 0.08 cm −1 with the inclusion of only 3.0% of the off-diagonal couplings not accounted for by CMA-0A. Accordingly, the highly efficient CMA methodology proves to be robust even for vibrations on flat potential energy surfaces.

Aromatic compounds↗

High-compression implosions based on high density carbon ablator using modified drive and capsule dopant profiles

Laser-driven inertial fusion experiments have, for the first time, achieved a target gain greater than unity in a laboratory setting [Abu-Shawareb et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 132, 065102 (2024)]. Despite this breakthrough, the burn-up fraction remains limited to about one-fourth of ideal estimates due to insufficient areal density, highlighting the potential for greater gains through enhanced compression. In our previous work, we demonstrated record-high compression of stagnated fuel in indirectly driven implosions using high-density carbon ablators. This was achieved by combining a continuous ramped pulse drive with a modified ablator dopant profile, which reduced mixing at the fuel–ablator interface and improved stability [Tommasini et al., Phys. Rev. Res. 5, L042034 (2023)]. Based on this foundation, the study presented here investigates the limits of compression achievable by combining the continuous ramped pulse drive with different dopant profiles to further minimize unstable interfaces and gradient discontinuities, thereby reducing fuel–ablator mixing. Our results demonstrate that the continuous ramped pulse consistently outperforms designs based on 3-shock drive pulses across all ablator profiles studied, with compression showing only a relatively modest dependence on dopant configurations that reduce the number of interfaces or eliminate discontinuities in the dopant gradient profile. Sub-scale experiments using the continuous ramped pulse achieved compression levels exceeding those of full-scale “HyE” implosions [Kritcher et al., Phys. Plasmas 28, 072706 (2021)] at similar adiabat, anticipating significant performance gains with increased scale, as supported by models and simulations. These findings underscore the critical role of the continuous ramped pulse in reducing mix and achieving improved compression. They also provide a foundation for future large-scale experiments to test the continuous ramped pulse design on deuterium–tritium fuel in the burn-wave propagation regime, leveraging the most effective combinations of continuous ramped pulse and dopant profiles identified in this study.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Saccharomycotina yeasts defy long-standing macroecological patterns

The Saccharomycotina yeasts (“yeasts” hereafter) are a fungal clade of scientific, economic, and medical significance. Yeasts are highly ecologically diverse, found across a broad range of environments in every biome and continent on earth; however, little is known about what rules govern the macroecology of yeast species and their range limits in the wild. Here, we trained machine learning models on 12,816 terrestrial occurrence records and 96 environmental variables to infer global distribution maps at ~1 km2 resolution for 186 yeast species (~15% of described species from 75% of orders) and to test environmental drivers of yeast biogeography and macroecology. We found that predicted yeast diversity hotspots occur in mixed montane forests in temperate climates. Diversity in vegetation type and topography were some of the greatest predictors of yeast species richness, suggesting that microhabitats and environmental clines are key to yeast diversity. We further found that range limits in yeasts are significantly influenced by carbon niche breadth and range overlap with other yeast species, with carbon specialists and species in high-diversity environments exhibiting reduced geographic ranges. Finally, yeasts contravene many long-standing macroecological principles, including the latitudinal diversity gradient, temperature-dependent species richness, and a positive relationship between latitude and range size (Rapoport’s rule). These results unveil how the environment governs the global diversity and distribution of species in the yeast subphylum. These high-resolution models of yeast species distributions will facilitate the prediction of economically relevant and emerging pathogenic species under current and future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Partial Premixing Effects on the Reacting Jet of a High-Pressure Axially Staged Combustor

The effects of partial premixing on a reacting jet-in-crossflow is investigated in a five atmosphere axially staged combustor at stationary gas turbine relevant conditions. The facility consists of a dump style headend burner that provides a crossflow with a quasi-uniform velocity and temperature profile to the axial stage to isolate the effects of the jet-in-crossflow. The headend burner is run with methane and air at a lean equivalence ratio to match industry emission standards. For this work, the total air to the headend and axial stage is kept constant, and fuel is split between the headend and axial stage to represent different gas turbine loading conditions. For the cases analyzed, the fuel split to the axial stage went up to 25%. The axial stage consists of an optically accessible test section with a coaxial injector that provides variability to how long the methane and air can mix before entering the facility. Three different premixed levels are studied: fully premixed, nonpremixed, and partially premixed. The flow-field characteristics of the reacting jet-in-crossflow are analyzed using particle image velocimetry (PIV), and flame behavior is quantified by employing CH* chemiluminescence. NO measurements are made at the exit of the facility using a Horiba emissions analyzer. Furthermore, two different flames are observed: flames that burn in the leeward recirculation region and flames that burn at the core of the jet.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Increasing bacterial tolerance and metabolism of the biofuel, n-butanol using community-level evolution and functional genomics

n-butanol is a strong biofuel candidate since it is more energy dense and less volatile than ethanol. The bottleneck for industrial production of biobutanol is the toxicity; most microbes cannot survive about 1.5% v/v. We propose to develop bioremediation capability along with the biofuel technology to mitigate future spills and their consequences. Two main approaches were used: community-level screening and functional genomics, both followed by directed evolution to increase biodegradation. For the first approach, a bacterial library from historic bioremediation projects was re-isolated and re-characterized, then mixed into artificial communities of ~20 strains (“master mixes”). These master mixes were screened for tolerance to butanol, and continuously exposed to increase tolerance. Promising communities were then tested for growth with butanol as the sole carbon source. Secondly, we looked for bacteria with alcohol dehydrogenase enzymes and looked to increase butanol metabolism. We found that the tolerance for n-butanol may be improved with repeated exposure, but it was difficult to switch from tolerance to metabolism. Bacterial community dynamics may be influenced by n-butanol concentration, and there was putative butanol metabolism found with both research approaches.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Hot Water Extraction: Short Rotation Willow, Mixed Hardwoods, and Process Considerations

Short rotation woody crops (SRWC) like shrub willow are highly productive biomass resources of interest for energy and fuel applications. Hot water extraction (HWE) as an upgrading tool to enable the use of willow biomass in pellet applications has been proposed, and is of increasing interest. This study treats willow and mixes of willow and conventional mixed hardwood feedstock with HWE in a tumbling laboratory reactor to elucidate the effects of time, temperature, feedstock mixes, and other process considerations (water:biomass ratio, presteaming, counter-current processing) on mass removals and other extraction outcomes (e.g., sugar, acetate, and furan yields). Results demonstrated alignment of extraction outcomes with P-factor from 155 °C to 175 °C, with a good compromise of removed mass and co-product potential in the range from 575–800 P-factor. The preferred condition was chosen as 575 P-factor. HWE of mixes of willow and hardwood feedstocks showed a linear response of extraction outcomes to willow:hardwood ratios. Testing of water:biomass ratios demonstrated that this is a significant consideration, with each outcome being affected somewhat differently, and indicating that HWE is more diffusion dependent than expected. Presteaming shows little to no effect on extraction outcomes, while multi-stage cooks simulating counter-current operation indicate a significant potential value in counter-current extraction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Qualification of ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 Mixing Criteria by Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for the 3430 Building Fan Addition and Increased Ventilation Capacity

Additional ventilation capacity has been designed for the 3430 Building filtered exhaust stack system. The updated system will increase the number of fans from two to three and include new ductwork with a larger diameter to integrate the new fan into the existing stack. Stack operations will involve running various fan combinations at any given time. The air monitoring system of the existing two-fan stack previously was found to comply with the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-1999 standard. Full-scale, three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to evaluate the modified three-fan system for compliance with the ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 standard, which essentially is equivalent to the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard. The four mixing criteria evaluated are 1) flow angle, 2) velocity, 3) gas tracer, and 4) particle tracer. Benchmarking of the CFD modeling methodology showed good agreement with previous testing used to qualify the stack, and modeling of the existing two-fan system showed good agreement with test data collected from the 3430 Building stack. Modeling was performed to develop a suitable three-fan design. Initial modeling of the three-fan design and basic ductwork showed that flow angles and velocity uniformity were acceptable; however, the gas tracer and particle tracer mixing results were not acceptable. To meet ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 criteria, an air blender was added to the stack design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Qualification of ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 Mixing Criteria by Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for the 3430 Building Fan Addition and Increased Ventilation Capacity

Additional ventilation capacity has been designed for the 3430 Building filtered exhaust stack system. The updated system will increase the number of fans from two to three and include new ductwork with a larger diameter to integrate the new fan into the existing stack. Stack operations will involve running various fan combinations at any given time. The air monitoring system of the existing two-fan stack previously was found to comply with the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-1999 standard. Full-scale, three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to evaluate the modified three-fan system for compliance with the ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 standard, which essentially is equivalent to the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard. The four mixing criteria evaluated are 1) flow angle, 2) velocity, 3) gas tracer, and 4) particle tracer. Benchmarking of the CFD modeling methodology showed good agreement with previous testing used to qualify the stack, and modeling of the existing two-fan system showed good agreement with test data collected from the 3430 Building stack. Modeling was performed to develop a suitable three-fan design. Initial modeling of the three-fan design and basic ductwork showed that flow angles and velocity uniformity were acceptable; however, the gas tracer and particle tracer mixing results were not acceptable. To meet ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 criteria, an air blender was added to the stack design. This revision models the individual maximum fan reduced flow capacity from 38,000 cfm to 31,200 cfm; no changes to the duct design are made.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling atomically mixed graded density impactors

Graded density impactors (GDIs) are multi-material composite impactors used in gas gun experiments to tailor the drive conditions imparted to a sample test material. Previous graded density impactors generally rely on thin, but discrete, layers of different materials. The thinner and the greater number of layers will result in smoother compression. Taken to the limit of very thin layers would be pure material 1 at one surface, such as the front surface of an impactor, smoothly transitioning at the atomic scale to pure material 2 on the back surface. Such an impactor can initially shock, then smoothly compresses a material during a dynamic experiment. This type of experiment can serve to explore a larger region of thermodynamic space than a single or even multi-shock experiments. An overview of how graded density impactors are made is reviewed and sample results are given. Additionally, a strategy for modeling these kinds of impactors is presented. The length scales of constituent mixing are given from the experimental build through electrochemical-deposition. Equation of state models for pure constituents and their subsequent mixtures are presented. It is demonstrated that the time scales for pressure and temperature equilibration, for atomically mixed GDIs, are short enough to be a justifiable closure for the resulting multiphase flow. Furthermore, we present simulation results of dynamic shock followed by a ramp compression, utilizing a silver/gold graded density impactor, onto a tantalum sample.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

RELAP5-3D Modeling of High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) Test PG-26

The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University (OSU) is a scaled integral effects experiment designed to investigate transient behavior in high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors with prismatic fuel and reflector blocks. Several tests have been completed, and more are still planned to at the HTTF, including depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC) and pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) transients. This report analyses test PG-26, a progression of the Double Ended Inlet-Outlet Crossover Duct Break transient that is referred to as a DCC. PG-26 has been performed at the HTTF between May 30 and June 30, 2019. Core initial conditions (i.e., before the DCC started) have been met using low power (<100 kW) and two of ten available electric heaters. The DCC transient was initiated during the 50 th hour of the test. The break valves were opened, and hot helium from the core and cold helium from the reactor cavity simulation tank (RCST) started mixing. The gases flowed in a countercurrent fashion, where the top half of the hot duct contained hot helium that flowed in one direction and cold helium that flowed in the other direction in the bottom half of the duct. After the pressure and density reached equilibrium, the event entered a diffusion mode. The onset of a reverse natural circulation was not observed during the DCC period of the test. Version 4.4.2ie of the RELAP5-3D computer code has been used to model the HTTF PG-26 test, and results have been compared to available high-quality measured data. The model used in this study is the quality-controlled HTTF RELAP5-3D model (HTTF base 2018-04-19 QA), originally developed by P. Bayless. The report includes RELAP5-3D results of the “base calculations” as well as some sensitivities to important uncertain model inputs, such as primary helium mass flow rate, core ceramic thermal properties, as well as heat evacuation and loop friction models. Using the base RELAP5-3D model predicts a countercurrent helium flow in the hot duct observed at the beginning of the DCC, but instead of going into a molecular diffusion mode, the model predicts the onset of natural convection. Increasing friction in the core and hot duct prevents the natural convection from happening in some of the simulations. Although some temperatures are well predicted (and even overpredicted), the general tendency is to underpredict the ceramic and helium temperatures and heat removal rates during the DCC, resulting in many of the assessment findings being in minimal or insufficient agreement with the data. It is worth noting that the described discrepancies between measured data and RELAP5-3D predictions are not RELAP5-3D code limitations. More so, they reflect limitations in boundary condition and thermal property knowledge. While the RELAP5-3D calculations of the test provide some insights into what happens during the transient, and point to missing or potentially uncertain data to which the experimenters can direct their attention, the principal conclusion is that the PG-26 test data are insufficient for a system code assessment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Modeling of HTTF test PG-26 using RELAP5-3D and SAM

The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University (OSU) is a scaled integral effects experiment designed to investigate transient behavior in high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors (HTGR) with prismatic fuel and reflector blocks [1]. Several tests have been completed at the HTTF including depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC) and pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) transients. This summary reports on the analysis of test PG-26 using the INL system code REALP5-3D [2] as well as the ANL system code SAM [3]. Test PG-26 is a progression of the Double Ended Inlet-Outlet Crossover Duct Break transient that is referred to as a DCC [4]. Core initial conditions (i.e., before the DCC started) have been met using low power (<100 kW) and two of ten available electric heater banks. The DCC transient was initiated during the 50th hour of the test. The break valves were opened, and hot helium from the core and cold helium from the reactor cavity simulation tank (RCST) started mixing. The gases flowed in a countercurrent fashion, where the top half of the hot duct contained hot helium that flowed in one direction and cold helium that flowed in the other direction in the bottom half of the duct. After the pressure and density reached equilibrium, the event entered a diffusion mode. The onset of a reverse natural circulation was not observed during the DCC period of the test.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Review of Grey Box/Black Box Data Contamination Metrics on Open and Commercial Models

Dataset contamination is a problem where benchmarks and tasks used to evaluate the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) have been incorporated into the training dataset of the models. This gives a false sense of performance that can overestimate how these models will function on truly unseen data. This problem becomes worse with commercial LLMs with larger and non-accessible training data, so techniques have been developed to try to measure the degree to which a model is contaminated with a benchmark’s data. To understand the effectiveness of these techniques, particularly when evaluating contamination on coding tasks, we review trends and categorize techniques by the degree of access to the model that is required. The research literature on this topic has reported mixed effectiveness of these techniques, so we select a set of black box (text access only) and grey box (access to model loss/probabilities required) techniques and apply them to both commercial and non-commercial models. We implement these metrics as part of a framework to test the contamination of Python code in LLMs to see to what extent we can replicate the effectiveness (or ineffectiveness) of these contamination detection techniques. Though we find mixed results in the capabilities of these metrics to identify contamination, we do observe evidence that they can identify contamination (broadly) in fine-tuned models when both a baseline and fine-tuned model is present. Additionally, similarity metrics were able to identify between contaminated and uncontaminated data even in situations where the data is distributionally similar (e.g., drawn from the same set of code projects).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Grounding our Understanding of the Impacts of Boreal Forest Expansion on Shallow Cumulus Clouds with a Simple Modeling Framework

Abstract The expansion of the boreal forest poleward is a potentially important driver of feedbacks between the land surface and Arctic climate. A growing body of work has highlighted the importance of differences in evaporative resistance between different possible future Arctic land covers, which in turn alters humidity and cloudiness in the boundary layer, for these feedbacks. While thus far this problem has been studied primarily with complex Earth system models, we turn to a locally focused, idealized model capable of diagnosing and testing the sensitivity of first-order processes connecting vegetation, the atmospheric boundary layer, and low clouds in this critical region. This allows us to benchmark the mechanisms and results at the center of predictions from larger-scale simulations. A surface dominated by broadleaf trees, characterized by higher albedo and lower surface evaporative resistance, drives cooling and moistening of the boundary layer relative to a surface of needleleaf trees, characterized by lower albedo and higher surface evaporative resistance. Differences in evaporative resistance between these hypothetical Arctic vegetation covers are of equal importance to changes in albedo for the initial response of the boundary layer to boreal expansion, even with our idealized approach. However, compensation between the elevation of the lifting condensation level (LCL) and more rapid growth of the mixed layer over higher evaporative resistance surfaces can minimize changes in the favorability of shallow clouds over different land cover types under some conditions. We then perform two tests on the sensitivity of this compensating effect, to changes in water availability, represented first by a reduction in boundary layer humidity and then by both a reduction in humidity and soil moisture available to our vegetation surface. Finally, given the importance of this potential LCL–mixed-layer height compensation in our idealized modeling results, we look to determine its relevance in observational data from a field campaign in boreal Finland. These observations do confirm that such a coupling plays an important role in cumulus-topped boundary layers over a needleleaf forest surface. While our results confirm some underlying mechanisms at the center of prior work with Earth system models, they also provide motivation for future work to constrain the impact of boreal forest expansion. This will include both large eddy simulations to examine the impact of processes and feedbacks not resolved by a mixed-layer model, as well as a more systematic evaluation and comparison of relevant observations at the site in Finland and sites from prior boreal field campaigns. Significance Statement Clouds and vegetation are both important components of the climate system that interact across a range of scales. These interactions are central to understanding how changes at the land surface feedback on climate. For example, if a forest expands or recedes, diagnosing how that will impact clouds will determine whether you predict warming or cooling temperatures from that shift in the forest area. These predictions are often made with complex Earth system models, but we look to a more idealized representation of the land–atmosphere system to diagnose how shallow clouds should respond to changes in surface properties with different scenarios of boreal forest expansion at a more foundational level. This both grounds our understanding of previous analysis and provides helpful direction for future studies of this relevant and impactful land cover change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗