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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Analysis of Sonic Boom Levels Measured in a Simulator at NASA Langley

A sonic boom simulator has been constructed at NASA Langley Research Center for testing the human response to sonic booms heard indoors. Like all measured quantities, sonic boom levels in the simulator are subject to systematic and random errors. To quantify these errors, and their net influence on the measurement result, a formal uncertainty analysis is conducted. Knowledge of the measurement uncertainty, or range of values attributable to the quantity being measured, enables reliable comparisons among measurements at different locations in the simulator as well as comparisons with field data or laboratory data from other simulators. The analysis reported here accounts for acoustic excitation from two sets of loudspeakers: one loudspeaker set at the facility exterior that reproduces the exterior sonic boom waveform and a second set of interior loudspeakers for reproducing indoor rattle sounds. The analysis also addresses the effect of pressure fluctuations generated when exterior doors of the building housing the simulator are opened. An uncertainty budget is assembled to document each uncertainty component, its sensitivity coefficient, and the combined standard uncertainty. The latter quantity will be reported alongside measurement results in future research reports to indicate data reliability.

Rathsam, Jonathan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Measurement Accuracy and Uncertainty Analysis of the X-59 Air Data Probe Calibration Test Entry One

The X-59 is being developed to demonstrate quiet sonic boom technology. Data was obtained via two test entries in the NASA Glenn Research Center’s 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel to calibrate the X-59’s nose air data probe. The first entry tested two theoretically identical probes with the intention of one of the probes becoming the primary X-59 nose air data probe flight hardware and the other becoming a backup. A measurement accuracy and uncertainty analysis was performed on data obtained from the first test entry. The analysis showed that the uncertainties in the probe pressures were nearly identical for the two probes, with an average difference of 2.51 x 10-5 for the non-dimensional total pressure and 2.88 x 10-5 for the non-dimensional static pressures. The analysis also showed that the uncertainty in the probe yaw and pitch angles were 0.00034° and 0.01416°, respectively. This gives confidence in the X-59’s flight air data system.

Air Data Probe↗
NASA NTRS2023

Measurement Accuracy and Uncertainty Analysis of the X-59 Air Data Probe Calibration Test Entry One

The X-59 is being developed to demonstrate quiet sonic boom technology. Data was obtained via two test entries in the NASA Glenn Research Center’s 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel to calibrate the X-59’s nose air data probe. The first entry tested two theoretically identical probes with the intention of one of the probes becoming the primary X-59 nose air data probe flight hardware and the other becoming a backup. A measurement accuracy and uncertainty analysis was performed on data obtained from the first test entry. The analysis showed that the uncertainties in the probe pressures were nearly identical for the two probes, with an average difference of 2.51 x 10 -5 for the non-dimensional total pressure and 2.88 x 10 -5 for the non-dimensional static pressures. The analysis also showed that the uncertainty in the probe yaw and pitch angles were 0.00034° and 0.01416°, respectively. This gives confidence in the X-59’s flight air data system.

Air Data Probe↗
NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Tripp, John S.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Two-Parameter Impedance Prediction Model

This paper presents comparisons of predicted impedance uncertainty limits derived from Monte-Carlo-type simulations with a Two-Parameter (TP) impedance prediction model and measured impedance uncertainty limits based on multiple tests acquired in NASA Langley test rigs. These predicted and measured impedance uncertainty limits are used to evaluate the effects of simultaneous randomization of each input parameter for the impedance prediction and measurement processes. A sensitivity analysis is then used to further evaluate the TP prediction model by varying its input parameters on an individual basis. The variation imposed on the input parameters is based on measurements conducted with multiple tests in the NASA Langley normal incidence and grazing incidence impedance tubes; thus, the input parameters are assigned uncertainties commensurate with those of the measured data. These same measured data are used with the NASA Langley impedance measurement (eduction) processes to determine the corresponding measured impedance uncertainty limits, such that the predicted and measured impedance uncertainty limits (95% confidence intervals) can be compared. The measured reactance 95% confidence intervals encompass the corresponding predicted reactance confidence intervals over the frequency range of interest. The same is true for the confidence intervals of the measured and predicted resistance at near-resonance frequencies, but the predicted resistance confidence intervals are lower than the measured resistance confidence intervals (no overlap) at frequencies away from resonance. A sensitivity analysis indicates the discharge coefficient uncertainty is the major contributor to uncertainty in the predicted impedances for the perforate-over-honeycomb liner used in this study. This insight regarding the relative importance of each input parameter will be used to guide the design of experiments with test rigs currently being brought on-line at NASA Langley.

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A general model for attitude determination error analysis

An overview is given of a comprehensive approach to filter and dynamics modeling for attitude determination error analysis. The models presented include both batch least-squares and sequential attitude estimation processes for both spin-stabilized and three-axis stabilized spacecraft. The discussion includes a brief description of a dynamics model of strapdown gyros, but it does not cover other sensor models. Model parameters can be chosen to be solve-for parameters, which are assumed to be estimated as part of the determination process, or consider parameters, which are assumed to have errors but not to be estimated. The only restriction on this choice is that the time evolution of the consider parameters must not depend on any of the solve-for parameters. The result of an error analysis is an indication of the contributions of the various error sources to the uncertainties in the determination of the spacecraft solve-for parameters. The model presented gives the uncertainty due to errors in the a priori estimates of the solve-for parameters, the uncertainty due to measurement noise, the uncertainty due to dynamic noise (also known as process noise or measurement noise), the uncertainty due to the consider parameters, and the overall uncertainty due to all these sources of error.

Markley, F. Landis↗
NASA NTRS1979

Carbon monoxide measurement in the global atmospheric sampling program

The carbon monoxide measurement system used in the NASA Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) is described. The system used a modified version of a commercially available infrared absorption analyzer. The modifications increased the sensitivity of the analyzer to 1 ppmv full scale, with a limit of detectability of 0.02 ppmv. Packaging was modified for automatic, unattended operation in an aircraft environment. The GASP system is described along with analyzer operation, calibration procedures, and measurement errors. Uncertainty of the CO measurement over a 2-year period ranged from + or - 3 to + or - 13 percent of reading, plus an error due to random fluctuation of the output signal + or - 3 to + or - 15 ppbv.

Dudzinski, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Uncertainty of in-flight thrust determination

Methods for estimating the measurement error or uncertainty of in-flight thrust determination in aircraft employing conventional turbofan/turbojet engines are reviewed. While the term 'in-flight thrust determination' is used synonymously with 'in-flight thrust measurement', in-flight thrust is not directly measured but is determined or calculated using mathematical modeling relationships between in-flight thrust and various direct measurements of physical quantities. The in-flight thrust determination process incorporates both ground testing and flight testing. The present text is divided into the following categories: measurement uncertainty methodoogy and in-flight thrust measurent processes.

Abernethy, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Development and Validation of an Empirical Ocean Color Algorithm with Uncertainties: A Case Study with the Particulate Backscattering Coefficient

We explored how algorithm (model) and in situ measurement (observation) uncertainties can effectively be incorporated into empirical ocean color model development and assessment. In this study we focused on methods for deriving the particulate backscattering coefficient at 555 nm, b(bp)(555)/(m). We developed a simple empirical algorithm for deriving b(bp)(555) as a function of a remote sensing reflectance line height (LH) metric. Model training was performed using a high-quality bio-optical dataset that contains coincident in situ measurements of the spectral remote sensing reflectances, R(rs)(λ)/(sr), and the spectral particulate backscattering coefficients, b(bp)(λ). The LH metric used is defined as the magnitude of Rrs(555) relative to a linear baseline drawn between R(rs)(490) and R(rs)(670). Using an independent validation dataset, we compared the skill of the LH-based model with two other models. We used contemporary validation metrics, including bias and mean absolute error (MAE), that were corrected for model and observation uncertainties. The results demonstrated that measurement uncertainties do indeed impact contemporary validation metrics such as mean bias and MAE. Zeta-scores and z-tests for overlapping confidence intervals were also explored as potential methods for assessing model skill.

ocean color↗
NASA NTRS2004

OVOC (Oxygenated Volatile Organic Chemicals) in the Global Atmosphere: Atmospheric Budgets, Oceanic Concentrations, and Uncertainties

Airborne measurements of oxygenated volatile organic chemicals (OVOC), OH free radicals, and tracers of pollution were performed over the Pacific during Winter/Spring of 2001. Large concentrations of OVOC are present in the global troposphere and are expected to play an important role in atmospheric chemistry. Their total abundance (SIGMAOVOC) was nearly twice that of non-methane hydrocarbons (SIGMAC2-C8 NMHC). Throughout the troposphere, the OH reactivity of OVOC is comparable to that of methane and far exceeds that of NHMC. A comparison of these data with western Pacific observations collected some seven years earlier (Feb.-March, 1994) did not reveal significant differences. Analysis of the relative enhancement of selected OVOC with respect to CH3Cl and CO in twelve plumes originating from fires and sampled in the free troposphere (3-11 km) is used to assess their primary and secondary emissions from biomass combustion. The composition of these plumes also indicates a large shift of reactive nitrogen into the PAN reservoir thereby limiting ozone formation. These data are combined with other observations and interpreted with the help of a global 3-D model to assess OVOC global sources and sinks. We further interpret atmospheric observations with the help of an air-sea exchange model io show that oceans can be both net so~rces and sinks. An extremely large oceanic reservoir of OVOC, that exceeds the atmospheric reservoir by more than an order of magnitude, can be inferred to be present. We conclude that OVOC sources are extremely large (150-500 TgC y-1) but remain poorly quantified. In many cases, measured concentrations are uncertain and incompatible with our present knowledge of atmospheric chemistry. Results based on observations from several field studies and critical gaps will be discussed.

Singh, Hanwant B.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Estimating Residual Uncertainties for Lunar Irradiance Measurements Due to Imaging Acquisition Parameters

Lunar calibration is a commonly used method to track a climate satellite sensor's long-term radiometric stability. We present a modeling approach to examine the satellite sensor lunar observation uncertainties due to several important aspects related to the lunar image acquisition by the satellite sensor: lunar pixel shift, point spread function (PSF), lunar orientation, pitch, and oversampling rates. Our analyses can be summarized as follows: (1) The sensor observed lunar irradiance can vary due to small lunar pixel shift if the PSF is less than ideal; (2) During lunar calibration, an unstable oversampling rate due to spacecraft control will result in errors in observed lunar irradiance. A drift in oversampling rate would result in a bias in observed lunar irradiance and a random variation in oversampling rate would cause random error in lunar irradiance. Increasing the overall oversampling rates can reduce random error in observed lunar irradiance but would not change the biases in the observation; (3) Furthermore, the biases can vary when the Moon is observed at different orientations. Our results show impacts on observed lunar irradiance are on the order of 0.1 percent, which is a significant part of the overall uncertainty for a lunar irradiance measurement of a climate satellite sensor.

Oversampling↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification for JPL Retrievals

We define the notions of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ), and place them in the context of retrievals of Earth science data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of characterizing the uncertainty of a measurement system relative to the true, physical quantity it measures. UQ is needed when measurements are used for scientific inference, assimilated into models with other data, and used for decision-making and risk analysis. Many measurements come with measures of standard error and bias, but these uncertainty measures are often inaccurate, due to the operational need to assume crisp values for parameters which are in fact uncertain, as well as the failure of technical assumptions needed by operational error-estimation approaches. UQ provides a way to study which assumptions fail to hold, and a tool to improve the measurement. We describe a particular, broadly-applicable UQ setup that has been successful for JPL retrievals including OCO-2, and provide recommendations for furthering the UQ state of the practice at JPL.

Turmon, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2019

An Assessment of Uncertainty in Atmospheric State Measurements on Airborne Platforms

Several federal agencies, including NASA, maintain a fleet of highly specialized research aircraft which are routinely used in airborne science field studies. Well characterized measurements of atmospheric state parameters, such as pressure, ambient temperature, and wind speed are paramount in the ability to perform higher level analysis towards complex research questions. Even though measurements have been made over several decades, they remain a challenge given the compressibility of air along the aircraft axis, instrument placement along the aircraft skin, and the potential for probe contamination. Therefore, a set of redundant measurements is often acquired to ensure a complete instrument time series. This uncertainty assessment takes advantage of various inter-comparison techniques devised to diagnose the temporal and spatial fidelity of atmospheric state parameters, often between different instrumentation sources and aircraft assets. To be discussed are the impacts of this ongoing study, current limitations to the airborne probes, and plans for future work.

Bennett, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS2002

Techniques for Measuring Low Earth Orbital Atomic Oxygen Erosion of Polymers

Polymers such as polyimide Kapton and Teflon FEP (fluorinated ethylene propylene) are commonly used spacecraft materials due to their desirable properties such as flexibility, low density, and in the case of FEP, a low solar absorptance and high thermal emittance. Polymers on the exterior of spacecraft in the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment are exposed to energetic atomic oxygen. Atomic oxygen reaction with polymers causes erosion, which is a threat to spacecraft durability. It is therefore important to understand the atomic oxygen erosion yield (E, the volume loss per incident oxygen atom) of polymers being considered in spacecraft design. The most common technique for determining E is through mass loss measurements. For limited duration exposure experiments, such as shuttle experiments, where the atomic oxygen fluence is often so low that mass loss measurements can not produce acceptable uncertainties, recession measurements based on atomic force microscopy analyses can be used. Equally necessary to knowing the mass loss or recession depth for determining the erosion yield of polymers is the knowledge of the atomic oxygen fluence that the polymers were exposed to in space. This paper discusses the procedures and relevant issues for mass loss and recession depth measurements for passive atomic oxygen erosion yield characterization of polymers, along with techniques for active atomic oxygen fluence and erosion characterization. One active atomic oxygen erosion technique discussed is a new technique based on optical measurements. Details including the use of both semi-transparent and opaque polymers for active erosion measurement are reviewed.

deGroh, Kim K.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Space Shuttle Orbiter flight heating rate measurement sensitivity to thermal protection system uncertainties

A study was completed to determine the sensitivity of computed convective heating rates to uncertainties in the thermal protection system thermal model. Those parameters considered were: density, thermal conductivity, and specific heat of both the reusable surface insulation and its coating; coating thickness and emittance; and temperature measurement uncertainty. The assessment used a modified version of the computer program to calculate heating rates from temperature time histories. The original version of the program solves the direct one dimensional heating problem and this modified version of The program is set up to solve the inverse problem. The modified program was used in thermocouple data reduction for shuttle flight data. Both nominal thermal models and altered thermal models were used to determine the necessity for accurate knowledge of thermal protection system's material thermal properties. For many thermal properties, the sensitivity (inaccuracies created in the calculation of convective heating rate by an altered property) was very low.

Bradley, P. F.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Minimizing Uncertainty in Cryogenic Surface Figure Measurement

A new facility at the Goddard Space Flight Center is designed to measure with unusual accuracy the surface figure of mirrors at cryogenic temperatures down to 12 K. The facility is currently configured for spherical mirrors with a radius of curvature (ROC) of 600 mm, and apertures of about 150 mm or less. The goals of the current experiment were to 1) Obtain the best possible estimate of test mirror surface figure, S(x,y) at 87 K and 20 K; 2) Obtain the best estimate of the cryo-change, Delta (x,y): the change in surface figure between room temperature and the two cryo-temperatures; and 3) Determine the uncertainty of these measurements, using the definitions and guidelines of the ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. A silicon mirror was tested, and the cry-change from room temperature to 20K was found to be 3.7 nm rms, with a standard uncertainty of 0.23 nm in the rms statistic. Both the cryo-change figure and the uncertainty are among the lowest such figures yet published. This report describes the facilities, experimental methods, and uncertainty analysis of the measurements.

Blake, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2013

Coherent Uncertainty Analysis of Aerosol Measurements from Multiple Satellite Sensors

Aerosol retrievals from multiple spaceborne sensors, including MODIS (on Terra and Aqua), MISR, OMI, POLDER, CALIOP, and SeaWiFS altogether, a total of 11 different aerosol products were comparatively analyzed using data collocated with ground-based aerosol observations from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations within the Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS, http://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/mapss/ and http://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/aerostat/). The analysis was performed by comparing quality-screened satellite aerosol optical depth or thickness (AOD or AOT) retrievals during 2006-2010 to available collocated AERONET measurements globally, regionally, and seasonally, and deriving a number of statistical measures of accuracy. We used a robust statistical approach to detect and remove possible outliers in the collocated data that can bias the results of the analysis. Overall, the proportion of outliers in each of the quality-screened AOD products was within 12%. Squared correlation coefficient (R2) values of the satellite AOD retrievals relative to AERONET exceeded 0.6, with R2 for most of the products exceeding 0.7 over land and 0.8 over ocean. Root mean square error (RMSE) values for most of the AOD products were within 0.15 over land and 0.09 over ocean. We have been able to generate global maps showing regions where the different products present advantages over the others, as well as the relative performance of each product over different landcover types. It was observed that while MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS provide accurate retrievals over most of the landcover types, multi-angle capabilities make MISR the only sensor to retrieve reliable AOD over barren and snow / ice surfaces. Likewise, active sensing enables CALIOP to retrieve aerosol properties over bright-surface shrublands more accurately than the other sensors, while POLDER, which is the only one of the sensors capable of measuring polarized aerosols, outperforms other sensors in certain smoke-dominated regions, including broadleaf evergreens in Brazil and South-East Asia.

remote sensing↗