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At least 343 records · Page 19

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Shaping the terahertz sound propagation in water under highly directional confinement

Here, we consider the possibility of shaping the high-frequency acoustic propagation in a liquid upon directional confinement. This hypothesis is investigated by inelastic x-ray scattering measurements on water confined in aligned multiwalled carbon nanotubes, in which the momentum transfer was either parallel or orthogonal to the confinement axis. The comparison between the spectra measured in these two scattering geometries highlights the anisotropic nature of the dynamic response of directionally confined water, thus potentially inspiring pathways to shape high-frequency sound propagation in isotropic systems. Finally, a Bayesian analysis of measured spectra unravels close similarities in the phonon dispersions of multiwalled nanotubes and graphite.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian modeling reveals metabolite‐dependent ultrasensitivity in the cyanobacterial circadian clock

Not Available

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of LEU Holdup using gamma ray imaging and inverse transport solver

Holdup is the residual amount of special nuclear material (SNM) remaining in a processing facility after the bulk materials have been cleaned out. In commercial uranium processing facilities, quantification of holdup is a major challenge because of the highly variable shapes and sizes of the deposits. Any method that attempts to generalize and calibrate deposit shapes in order to quantify holdup will be prone to high uncertainties. Uncertainties on the order of ±50% are typical in holdup results. In international safeguards applications, a ±50% uncertainty can result in a large amount of material unaccounted for (MUF) thereby increasing the difficulty of detecting material diversion and facility misuse. An imaging-based methodology has been developed with the objective of significantly reducing this uncertainty by using the true deposit shape, instead of relying on oversimplified geometric assumptions. The project is a collaboration between ORNL, Y-12, and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN. Uranium sources of known masses were measured using the Germanium Gamma-ray Imager (GeGI), a high-resolution imaging spectrometer, creating a pixelated map for each spectral bin. Two different gamma imaging methods are employed in this work: coded aperture imaging and Compton imaging. A validated MonteCarlo model of the detector has been developed using the GEANT4 code for determining the intrinsic response of the detector, its enclosure, and the coded aperture mask. An inverse transport solver based on the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo approach known as Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) is employed to use the measurement data from the image pixels (coded aperture or Compton) to solve for the mass of 235 U in the deposit. A reliable method based on the DREAM solver has been developed to flag the infinite thickness condition of a uranium deposit. The project team is working towards improving the image reconstruction for Compton imaging so that a better localization of the source can be achieved. Besides treating the coded aperture and Compton imaging methods independently, the project is also evaluating a combined method that uses the Compton scatter data from a coded aperture measurement. GEANT4 simulations are being performed to evaluate the combined approach. The impact on the DREAM optimization as the source thickness progressively approaches infinite thickness is being evaluated. A number of uranium sources available at ORNL have been measured, and the DREAM results have been tested and validated for the coded aperture imaging. A similar effort will be carried out to validate the Compton based method once the development of algorithms for better localization are complete. The imaging based quantification is very amenable to unattended monitoring of holdup accumulation at key measurement points. A proof of concept measurement has been completed to demonstrate this capability The current work used the high energy resolution imager GeGI. However, the approach and methodologies are applicable to other imagers such as the cadmium zin telluride (CZT) based imager manufactured by H3D, Inc.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Using PyBioNetFit to leverage qualitative and quantitative data in biological model parameterization and uncertainty quantification

Data generated in studies of cellular regulatory systems are often qualitative. For example, measurements of signaling readouts in the presence and absence of mutations may reveal a rank ordering of responses across conditions but not the precise extents of mutation-induced differences. Qualitative data are often ignored by mathematical modelers or are considered in an ad hoc manner, as in the study of Kocieniewski and Lipniacki (2013) [Phys Biol 10: 035006], which was focused on the roles of MEK isoforms in ERK activation. In this earlier study, model parameter values were tuned manually to obtain consistency with a combination of qualitative and quantitative data. This approach is not reproducible, nor does it provide insights into parametric or prediction uncertainties. Here, starting from the same data and the same ordinary differential equation (ODE) model structure, we generate formalized statements of qualitative observations, making these observations more reusable, and we improve the model parameterization procedure by applying a systematic and automated approach enabled by the software package PyBioNetFit. We also demonstrate uncertainty quantification (UQ), which was absent in the original study. Our results show that PyBioNetFit enables qualitative data to be leveraged, together with quantitative data, in parameterization of systems biology models and facilitates UQ. These capabilities are important for reliable estimation of model parameters and model analyses in studies of cellular regulatory systems and reproducibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1974

Statistical analysis of flight times for space shuttle ferry flights

Markov chain and Monte Carlo analysis techniques are applied to the simulated Space Shuttle Orbiter Ferry flights to obtain statistical distributions of flight time duration between Edwards Air Force Base and Kennedy Space Center. The two methods are compared, and are found to be in excellent agreement. The flights are subjected to certain operational and meteorological requirements, or constraints, which cause eastbound and westbound trips to yield different results. Persistence of events theory is applied to the occurrence of inclement conditions to find their effect upon the statistical flight time distribution. In a sensitivity test, some of the constraints are varied to observe the corresponding changes in the results.

Graves, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A general cratering-history model and its implications for the lunar highlands

Through analysis of a large number of Monte Carlo and Markov Chain simulations, a model for determining crater accumulation and crater obliteration histories has been derived. The model generally applies to populations of large craters. It predicts that the following relationships hold for subequilibrium-density crater populations: (1) the more negative the production function's exponent, alpha (N near D super alpha) the lower the crater density at which the population size-frequency distribution will significantly depart from its production function; (2) the more negative the production function's exponent, the less obliteration a crater population will sustain after a set number of impacts. Application of the model to the lunar highlands implies (1) the production function for the large craters is highly structured, resembling the observed size-frequency distribution and not the function N near D to the -2; (2) even the densely cratered highlands have not attained crater saturation or equilibrium. Direct simulations of the highlands' crater population supports the model's implications.

Woronow, A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Representing Solar Active Regions with Triangulations

The solar chromosphere consists of three classes which contribute differently to ultraviolet radiation reaching the earth. We describe a data set of solar images, means of segmenting the images into the constituent classes, and novel high-level representation for compact objects based on a triangulation spatial 'membership function'.

Triangulation chromosphere Markov chain Monte Carl↗

DOE OSTI2022

Determining the bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated C$_3$F$_8$ dark matter detectors

The bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated liquids plays a crucial role in interpreting results from direct searches for weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. The PICO Collaboration presents the results of the efficiencies for bubble nucleation from carbon and fluorine recoils in superheated C$_3$F$_8$ from calibration data taken with 5 distinct neutron spectra at various thermodynamic thresholds ranging from 2.1 keV to 3.9 keV. Instead of assuming any particular functional forms for the nuclear recoil efficiency, a generalized piecewise linear model is proposed with systematic errors included as nuisance parameters to minimize model-introduced uncertainties. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) routine is applied to sample the nuclear recoil efficiency for fluorine and carbon at 2.45 keV and 3.29 keV thermodynamic thresholds simultaneously. The nucleation efficiency for fluorine was found to be $\geq 50\, \%$ for nuclear recoils of 3.3 keV (3.7 keV) at a thermodynamic Seitz threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV), and for carbon the efficiency was found to be $\geq 50\, \%$ for recoils of 10.6 keV (11.1 keV) at a threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV). Simulated data sets are used to calculate a p-value for the fit, confirming that the model used is compatible with the data. The fit paradigm is also assessed for potential systematic biases, which although small, are corrected for. Additional steps are performed to calculate the expected interaction rates of WIMPs in the PICO-60 detector, a requirement for calculating WIMP exclusion limits.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hadron spectroscopy of pseudoscalar and vector meson photoproduction using linearly polarised photons at CLAS

The field of hadron spectroscopy is informed by experiments which study excited states of the nucleon by detecting the decay products following excitation with a hadronic, leptonic or electromagnetic probe. Experiments using a polarised beam of photons provide an important contribution to the world data. This thesis describes the analysis of data from one such experiment, the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer at Jefferson Laboratory, Virginia, USA. In the experiment, an incident beam of electrons passes through a diamond radiator producing a linearly polarised photon beam of energy from 1.1 to 2.1 GeV on a liquid hydrogen target. The analysis method and results for two reaction channels are presented. In the first analysis, the polarisation observables {?, P, T, Ox, Oz} for the reaction ??? p ? K0 S ?+ are extracted simultaneously using likelihood sampling with Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo. The results are presented as angular distributions (cos ?K0S) for bins in photon energy E? for a total of 21 bins. The values extracted for T , Ox and Oz are a first measurement of these quantities for this reaction and the beam asymmetry (?) measurement supplements the one previous measurement for this quantity and extends the energy range over which it has been extracted. The measurement of the recoil polarisation, P, is consistent with previous measurements. In a second analysis, the spin density matrix elements (SDMEs) for ? p ? p ? are extracted using similar analysis techniques. The results are presented as angular distributions (cos ?? ) for bins in photon energy E? for a total of 24 bins. This work is the first to extract all nine SDMEs for the full angular range of the ? meson production. A comparison is made to the predictions of the Vector Meson Dominance (VMD) model and the results provide evidence for contributing processes other than VMD, particularly at more backward angles of the ? meson production. The data also indicate non-helicity conserving process in both the s-channel and the t-channel. The results from the first analysis have been passed to the Juelich-Bonn theory group and the effect of including the new data within their dynamical coupled channel model is described. Several nucleon resonances are affected and the impact on the pole positions, widths and photon decay amplitudes of the affected resonances is described.

Clark, Louise↗

NASA NTRS1985

Vector computer memory bank contention

A number of vector supercomputers feature very large memories. Unfortunately the large capacity memory chips that are used in these computers are much slower than the fast central processing unit (CPU) circuitry. As a result, memory bank reservation times (in CPU ticks) are much longer than on previous generations of computers. A consequence of these long reservation times is that memory bank contention is sharply increased, resulting in significantly lowered performance rates. The phenomenon of memory bank contention in vector computers is analyzed using both a Markov chain model and a Monte Carlo simulation program. The results of this analysis indicate that future generations of supercomputers must either employ much faster memory chips or else feature very large numbers of independent memory banks.

Bailey, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Computer simulation of surface and film processes

All the investigations which were performed employed in one way or another a computer simulation technique based on atomistic level considerations. In general, three types of simulation methods were used for modeling systems with discrete particles that interact via well defined potential functions: molecular dynamics (a general method for solving the classical equations of motion of a model system); Monte Carlo (the use of Markov chain ensemble averaging technique to model equilibrium properties of a system); and molecular statics (provides properties of a system at T = 0 K). The effects of three-body forces on the vibrational frequencies of triatomic cluster were investigated. The multilayer relaxation phenomena for low index planes of an fcc crystal was analyzed also as a function of the three-body interactions. Various surface properties for Si and SiC system were calculated. Results obtained from static simulation calculations for slip formation were presented. The more elaborate molecular dynamics calculations on the propagation of cracks in two-dimensional systems were outlined.

Tiller, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Vector computer memory bank contention

Bailey, David H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gamma ray Imaging Based Methods to Improve the Accuracy of Uranium Holdup Quantification

Deposits in commercial uranium processing facilities of interest to nuclear safeguards are predominantly low enriched uranium (LEU). The shapes and sizes of holdup deposits can vary significantly, thus making it difficult to model the deposits accurately for calibration purposes. This presents a challenge to currently employed methods such as the Generalized Geometry Holdup (GGH) that rely on quantifying 235U mass by simplifying deposit shapes as a point, a line, or an area. In this work, gamma ray imaging using high energy resolution Germanium Gamma Imagers (GeGI™) is employed to determine the distribution of uranium inside the source containment. Two types of imaging methods are employed; coded-aperture imaging and Compton imaging. Gamma-ray emissions seen in different regions of the image are quantified using an inverse gamma-ray transport solver being developed at ORNL. Using measured data, the inverse method will be used to solve for unknown source parameters such as source matrix thickness, density, and attenuation due to container wall and shielding. The intrinsic efficiency of the detector is determined based on a library of built-in response functions and key dimensions of the detector (e.g., thickness and radius of the detector crystal). Measurements are performed in both imaging modalities using uranium sources of well-known masses and enrichments configured inside mocked-up holdup fixtures. Results from the two imaging modalities are intercompared. The paper presents preliminary results of the imaging measurements and the progress made in the computational methods to quantify uranium mass.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reaction–drift–diffusion models from master equations: application to material defects

We present a general method to produce well-conditioned continuum reaction–drift–diffusion equations directly from master equations on a discrete, periodic state space. We assume the underlying data to be kinetic Monte Carlo models (i.e. continuous-time Markov chains) produced from atomic sampling of point defects in locally periodic environments, such as perfect lattices, ordered surface structures or dislocation cores, possibly under the influence of a slowly varying external field. Our approach also applies to any discrete, periodic Markov chain. Here, the analysis identifies a previously omitted non-equilibrium drift term, present even in the absence of external forces, which can compete in magnitude with the reaction rates, thus being essential to correctly capture the kinetics. To remove fast modes which hinder time integration, we use a generalized Bloch relation to efficiently calculate the eigenspectrum of the master equation. A well conditioned continuum equation then emerges by searching for spectral gaps in the long wavelength limit, using an established kinetic clustering algorithm to define a proper reduced, Markovian state space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗